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Tag: Banking Crisis

  • Bitcoin Set For Weekend Rally Amid New Banking Crisis: Hayes

    Bitcoin Set For Weekend Rally Amid New Banking Crisis: Hayes

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    Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has offered an in-depth analysis of the current financial landscape and its potential impact on Bitcoin, especially in light of the recent challenges faced by New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and the broader banking sector.

    Hayes’s analysis draws on the complex interplay between macroeconomic policies, banking sector health, and the cryptocurrency market. His comments are particularly insightful given the recent developments with NYCB. The bank’s stock plummeted by 46% due to an unexpected loss and a substantial dividend cut, which was primarily attributed to a tenfold increase in loan loss reserves, far exceeding estimates.

    This incident raised red flags about the stability and exposure of US regional banks, particularly in the real estate sector, which is known to be cyclically sensitive and vulnerable to economic downturns. The stock market reacted negatively to these developments, with regional US bank stocks also declining due to NYCB’s performance.

    Weekend Rally Ahead For Bitcoin?

    Hayes explicitly stated, “Jaypow [Jerome Powell] and Bad Burl Yellen [Janet Yellen] will be printing money very soon. NYCB annc a ‘surprise’ loss driven by loan loss reserves rising 10x vs. estimates. Guess the banks ain’t fixed.” This comment underscores the persisting fragility of the banking sector, still reeling from the shocks of the 2023 banking crisis. He added, “10-yr and 2-yr yields plunged, signaling the market expects some sort of renewed bankster bailout to fix the rot.”

    Furthermore, Hayes highlighted the impending conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which was introduced in response to the 2023 banking crisis. The BTFP was a critical instrument in providing liquidity to banks, allowing them to use a wider range of collateral for borrowing.

    Hayes anticipates market turbulence leading to the Fed possibly reinstating the BTFP or introducing similar measures. In a recent statement, he noted, “If my forecast is correct, the market will bankrupt a few banks within that period, forcing the Fed into cutting rates and announcing the resumption of the BTFP.” This scenario, he argues, would create a liquidity injection that could buoy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin​​.

    In his latest post on X, Hayes drew parallels to the cryptocurrency’s performance during the March 2023 banking crisis. He predicts a similar trajectory, suggesting a brief dip followed by a significant rally:

    Expect BTC to swoon a bit, but if NYCB and a few others dump into the weekend, expect a new bailout right quick. Then BTC off to the races just like March ’23 price action. […] I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend.

    During the March crisis, Bitcoin’s value jumped over 40%, a reaction attributed to its perceived role as a digital gold or a safe-haven asset amid financial instability​​. On a longer time horizon and with the Great Financial Crisis from 2008 in mind, he further argued, “What did the Fed and Treasury do last time US property prices plunged and bankrupted banks globally? Money Printer Go Brrrr. BTC = $1 million. Yachtzee.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $42,232.

    BTC price got rejected at the 0.236 Fib, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

    Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.



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    Jake Simmons

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  • CEOs concerned about banking crisis | Long Island Business News

    CEOs concerned about banking crisis | Long Island Business News

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    The current banking crisis has chief executives concerned, but not enough to switch institutions. That’s according to the latest Marcum LLP-Hofstra University CEO survey, which was released Tuesday.

    “In light of recent events, mid-market CEOs show increasing concern for banking partner stability, yet the majority maintain their relationships, reflecting trust in financial institutions,” Jeffrey Weiner, Marcum’s chairman and CEO said in a statement. “Though CEO optimism persists across industries, their strategic planning is being shaped by economic uncertainty, talent scarcity, and escalating costs.”

    The Marcum-Hofstra CEO Survey, developed and conducted by Hofstra’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business, is a periodic gauge of mid-market CEOs’ outlook and priorities for the next 12 months. The survey polls the leaders of companies with revenues ranging from $5 million to $1 billion-plus. This latest survey was conducted the week of April 10, 2023 and polled 255 mid-market CEOs.

    Janet Lenaghan, dean of the Zarb School, said that the last few years prepared CEOs to manage uncertainty like the volatility in the banking industry.

    “CEOs have had to juggle multiple challenges that emerge and evolve faster than ever before,” Lenaghan said in a statement. “In a sense, they’ve been in crisis management mode since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, so they know how to live with unpredictable conditions, when to be nimble and when to stay the course.”

    The survey was published less than a month after the failure or federal rescue of three regional banks. In the survey, mid-market CEOs expressed “uncertainty about the implications of the bank collapses and how to respond,” according to a news release about the findings. For instance, 62.4% said that they are either somewhat or very concerned over the stability of their company’s bank. Still, 87.8% said that they planned to continue the banking relationship with that institution.

    In addition, the percentage of CEOs who expressed concern over the stability of their company’s bank was virtually the same whether the company worked with a large national bank or a smaller regional institution.

    The survey revealed that to date, fears over a larger banking crisis have not impacted most of the respondents’ outlook on the business environment. In the survey, 82.5% rated their outlook as 5 or higher. That business outlook remained “virtually unchanged from the last survey in February,” according to the news release.

    There are, however, “stark differences in outlook” when the survey is broken down by industry. These findings point to growing concerns over whether the banking collapses may cause a commercial real estate crash. For example, 45% of real estate executives polled in the February survey were strongly optimistic about their business outlooks, providing ratings of between 8 and 10.  Yet only 11% expressed that same outlook in April, according to the survey.

    Yet, in a more hopeful sign, over that same period, the percentage of manufacturing and distribution CEOs who reported having a very optimistic business outlook jumped from 27% to 45%.

    The survey is analyzed by Zarb School MBA students, led by Andrew Forman, associate professor of international business and marketing, in partnership with Marcum.

    “With growing uncertainty in the banking sector, the Marcum-Hofstra CEO survey provides students with an instructive lesson on the importance of corporate leaders remaining vigilant and continually assessing even their company’s most long-standing relationships,” Forman said in a statement. “Similarly, we see them considering their employees’ evolving preferences regarding remote work and balancing these with the organization’s good.

    The survey also found that about 27% of CEOs reported that they’ve found it more difficult to borrow from lending institutions over the past year. Still, 40% did not, and almost 33% have not attempted to borrow in the past 12 months.

    Economic concerns continue to be the most-cited influence on business planning, with 58% of CEOs reporting it as one of their top three concerns. Behind that was the availability of talent and rising material and operational costs due to inflation.

    And about 45% of CEOs reported they permit their employees to work remotely and will continue to do so. Almost 13% said they have discontinued this option, while about 29% are considering that.

     

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    Adina Genn

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  • Banking System Trust Low After Collapses, Bank Runs | Entrepreneur

    Banking System Trust Low After Collapses, Bank Runs | Entrepreneur

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    Confidence in the banking industry is not looking good, according to a poll that came out Wednesday, per The Hill.

    Just 10% of Americans have “a great deal” of confidence in “banks and financial institutions,” according to the survey results.

    The questionnaire, which was conducted by The Associated Press and The University of Chicago’s NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, pulled participants from a representative sample of U.S. households. The survey was completed by 1,081 adults and conducted March 16 through 20, about one week after the run on Silicon Valley Bank that also felled Signature Bank and resulted in shock waves worldwide.

    Related: ‘Everyone Is Freaking Out.’ What’s Going On With Silicon Valley Bank? Federal Government Takes Control.

    This also contributed to the collapse of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, which was acquired by rival UBS on Sunday.

    The published survey results covered topics from trust in institutions to opinions on the economy and finances. One data point that stood out was a decrease in low trust in baking and financial institutions since 2020. That year, 22% of Americans said they had “a great deal” of confidence in the financial system.

    The survey also appears to reflect a bipartisan take. The majority of people polled in both political parties said the banking industry was not regulated enough, with 63% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans polled saying the government was doing “too little” to regulate financial institutions.

    Related: Elon Musks Weighs in on Fed’s Crucial Decision to Raise Interest Rates

    At the same time, few Americans overall expressed trust in U.S. institutions, from the Supreme Court to Congress (just 5% said they have a “great deal” of trust in the latter).

    The highest “great deal” was for the military, at 37%, but the rest of the data points indicate the percentage of people with a “great deal” of trust in an institution was lower than 18%.

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    Gabrielle Bienasz

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  • What Does the Banking Crisis Mean for Small Business Owners? | Entrepreneur

    What Does the Banking Crisis Mean for Small Business Owners? | Entrepreneur

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    Finance expert and entrepreneur Gene Marks joined Entrepreneur for a special livestream discussion on the impact of the recent bank failures. Marks is an author, CPA, business owner, and national business columnist for The Hill, The Guardian, Entrepreneur, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and other well-known outlets. He expertly broke down the recent bank failures and what they mean for entrepreneurs in an informative conversation with EntrepreneurTV Director of Programming Brag Gage.

    Watch the video above, and see the latest daily coverage of SVB and the banking crisis here.

    Related: Sharon Stone After SVB Collapse: ‘I Just Lost Half My Money to This Banking Thing’

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    Entrepreneur Staff

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