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Tag: Banking/Credit

  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • Charles Schwab stock drops after revenue falls a bit shy of expectations, amid trading weakness

    Charles Schwab stock drops after revenue falls a bit shy of expectations, amid trading weakness

    Shares of Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +5.42%

    fell 1.5% toward a five-month low in premarket trading Monday, after the financial services and discount brokerage giant beat third-quarter profit expectations but fell a bit shy on revenue. Net income dropped to $1.02 billion, or 56 cents a share, from $1.88 billion, or 99 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of 77 cents beat the FactSet consensus of 74 cents. Revenue declined 16.3% to $4.606 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $4.615 billion. Net interest revenue fell 23.5% to $2.237 billion to beat the FactSet consensus of $2.218 billion, while asset management and administration fee revenue rose 16.9% to $1.224 billion, in line with expectations, and trading revenue was down 17.4% to $768 million to miss expectations of $804 million. New brokerage accounts were flat from a year ago but down 7% from the sequential second quarter. The stock has declined 12.3% over the past three months through Friday while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%

    has slipped 3.9%.

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  • Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

    Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

    U.S. stocks are poised to rise on Monday ahead of a week of earnings and economic data releases, including quarterly reports from Tesla, Netflix, and .

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  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • Homes are expensive right now, but these mortgage bonds look cheap

    Homes are expensive right now, but these mortgage bonds look cheap

    U.S. homes may be wildly unaffordable for first-time buyers, but mortgage bonds backed by those same properties could be dirt cheap.

    Shocks from the Federal Reserve’s dramatic rate increases have walloped the $8.9 trillion agency mortgage-bond market, the main artery of U.S. housing finance for almost the past two decades.

    Spreads, or compensation for investors, have hit historically wide levels, even through the sector is underpinned by home loans that adhere to the stricter government standards set in the wake of the subprime-mortgage crisis.

    Bond prices also have tumbled, sinking from a peak above 106 cents on the dollar to below 98, despite guarantees that mean investors will be fully repaid at 100 cents on the dollar.

    From $106 to $98 cents, agency mortgage-bond prices are falling.


    Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

    “It’s really, really struggled,” Nick Childs, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said of the agency mortgage-bond market during a Thursday talk on the firm’s fixed-income outlook.

    Yet Childs and other investors also see big opportunities brewing. While mortgage bonds have gotten cheaper with the sector’s two anchor investors on the sidelines, the stalled housing market should breed scarcity in the bonds, which could help lift the sector out of a roughly two-year slump.

    Prices have tumbled since rate shocks hit, but also since the Fed continued winding down its large footprint in the sector by letting bonds it accumulated to help shore up the economy roll off its balance sheet.

    Banks awash in underwater securities have pulled back too. The repricing of similar bonds helped hasten the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

    “Banks have been not only absent, but selling,” said Childs, who helps oversee the Janus Henderson Mortgage-Backed Securities exchange-traded fund
    JMBS,
    an actively managed $2 billion fund focused on highly rated securities with minimal credit risk.

    “But we’re moving into an environment where supply continues to dwindle,” he said, given anemic refinancing activity and the dearth of new home loans being originated since 30-year fixed mortgage rates topped 7%.

    The bulk of all U.S. mortgage bonds created in the past two decades have come from housing giants Freddie Mac
    FMCC,
    +0.66%
    ,
    Fannie Mae
    FNMA,
    +1.09%

    and Ginnie Mae, with government guarantees, making the sector akin to the $25 trillion Treasury market. But unlike investors in Treasurys, investors in mortgage bonds also earn a spread, or extra compensation above the risk-free rate, to help offset its biggest risk: early repayments.

    While homeowners typically take out 30-year loans, most also refinanced during the pandemic rush to lock in ultralow rates, instead of continuing to make three decades of payments on more expensive mortgages. If someone refinances, sells or defaults on a home, it leads to repayment uncertainty for bond investors.

    “To put this another way, the biggest risk to mortgages is now off the table, yet spreads are at or near historic wides,” said Sam Dunlap, chief investment officer, Angel Oak Capital Advisors, in a new client note.

    That spread is now far above the long-term average, topping levels offered by relatively low-risk investment-grade corporate bonds.

    Agency mortgage bonds are offering far more spread that investment-grade corporate bonds. But these mortgage bonds will fully repay if borrowers default.


    Janus Henderson Investors

    Agency mortgage bonds typically are included in low-risk bond funds and can be found in exchange-traded funds. While they have been hard hit by the sharp selloff in long-dated Treasury bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y

    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    there has also been hope that the worst of the storm could be nearly over.

    Goldman Sachs credit analysts recently said they favored the sector but warned in a weekly client note that it still faces “high rate volatility and a dearth of institutional demand.”

    As evidence of the U.S. bond selloff, the popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    recently sank to its lowest level in more than a decade. It also was on pace for a negative 10% total return on the year so far, according to FactSet. Janus Henderson’s JMBS ETF was on pace for a negative 2.7% total return on the year through Friday.

    “Frankly, why they fit portfolios so well is that because the government backs agency mortgages, there is no credit risk,” Childs said. “So if a borrower defaults, you get par back on that. It just comes through as a typical payment.”

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  • Dow Jones ekes out gain Friday, stocks mostly advance for the week as Israel-Gaza war escalates

    Dow Jones ekes out gain Friday, stocks mostly advance for the week as Israel-Gaza war escalates

    U.S. stocks closed mostly lower Friday, but the Dow Jones and S&P 500 posted weekly gains, as the Israel-Gaza war appeared to escalate heading into the weekend. The Dow Jones Industries
    DJIA,
    +0.12%

    rose about 39 points, or 0.1%, on Friday, ending near 33,670, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.50%

    fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -1.23%

    closed 1.2% lower. The S&P 500’s energy segment outperformed Friday, gaining 2.3%, as U.S. benchmark crude surged nearly 6% after Israel ordered more than a million people in Gaza to evacuate to the south. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.626%

    rate retreating to 4.628% Friday, snapping a 5-week yield climb, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction. Investors bought other haven assets too, including gold
    GC00,
    +0.23%

    and the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    +0.07%
    .
    Wall Street’s “fear gauge”
    VIX,
    +15.76%

    also touched its highest level in more than a week. Even so, the Dow Jones booked at 0.8% weekly gain, the S&P 500 advanced 0.5% and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

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  • Subprime car-loan rates are hitting 17%-22%. Should investors be worried?

    Subprime car-loan rates are hitting 17%-22%. Should investors be worried?

    Many borrowers with subprime credit have been paying 17% to 22% rates on new auto loans this year as the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight takes a toll on lower-income households.

    That borrowing range reflects the average cost, or annual percentage rate, for a loan in recent subprime auto bond deals, according to Fitch Ratings, an increase from last year’s average APR of closer to 14%.

    Higher borrowing costs can mean households need to put more of their income into monthly auto payments, ramping up the risks of late payments, defaults and car repossessions. Those risks, however, have yet to make investors flinch.

    The subprime auto sector already has cleared almost $30 billion of new bond deals this year, according to Finsight, a pace that’s slightly below volumes from the past two years, but still above historical levels since 2008.

    The subprime auto bond market is revved up, even as borrowing rate soar


    Finsight

    “I do believe there has to be a reckoning if rates stay higher for longer,” said Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager on Brandywine Global Asset Management’s global fixed income team.

    Figuring out when the tumult might hit has proven difficult. Instead of slowing, the economy has shown resilience despite the Fed lifting its policy rate to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. The central bank also indicated it might need to keep rates higher for some time to fight inflation. Longer-duration bond yields, as a result, have pushed higher, but still hover below 5%.

    Subprime standoff

    Inflation eats away at paychecks, especially those of lower-wage workers, a problem the Fed hopes to solve by keeping borrowing rates elevated. A gauge of inflation out Thursday showed consumer prices were steady at a 3.7% yearly rate in September, above the Fed’s 2% target.

    “This recession has been on everyone’s mind for the past three years,” Chen said. While she thinks the economy will likely contract in the middle of 2024, a lot of damage could be done before that. “The longer rates stay here, the harder the landing.”

    For now, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting in November. “Fed policy makers are now shifting their focus from ‘how high’ to raise the policy rate to ‘how long’ to maintain it at restrictive levels,” said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco, in emailed comments.

    Stocks were flat to slightly higher in choppy trade at midday Thursday after the inflation report came in hotter than forecast, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    near unchanged and the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    up 0.2%.

    Past recessions and the burden of higher interest costs typically hit lower-wage workers harder, making subprime credit a canary in the coal mine for the rest of financial markets. Even so, investors in subprime auto bonds have yet to demand significantly more spread, or compensation, to offset potentially higher defaults among these borrowers.

    Related: Subprime auto defaults on path toward 2008 crisis levels, say portfolio managers

    Take the AAA rated 2-year slice of a new bond deal issued in mid-October by one of the subprime auto sector’s biggest players. It priced at a spread of 115 basis points above relevant risk-free rate, up from a spread of 90 basis points on a similar bond issued in August, according to Finsight, which tracks bond data.

    When factoring in Treasury rates, the yield on the bonds bumped up to about 6% and 5.7%, respectively. The shot at higher returns and low delinquencies in subprime auto bonds have likely helped with investor confidence. The rate of subprime auto loans at least 60-day past due in bond deals was about 5% in September, according to Intex, up from historic lows around 2.5% two years ago.

    “I think people still feel confident,” Chen said of subprime auto bonds. When putting a recent bond out on a Wall Street list to gauge its market value, she said bids come in right away.

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  • ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

    ‘Banks fail. It’s OK,’ says former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.

    Higher interest rates may be painful in the short term, but banks, savers and the financial ecosystem will be better off in the long run, said Sheila Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

    “When money is free, you squander it,” Bair said in an interview with MarketWatch. “It’s like anything. If it doesn’t cost you anything, you’re going to value it less. And we’ve had free money for quite some time now.”

    Bair, who led the FDIC from 2006 to 2011, caused a stir recently in criticizing “moonshots,” the crypto industry and “useless innovations” like Bored Ape NFTs, which proliferated because of speculation and near-zero interest rates.

    Her main message has been that the path to higher rates, while potentially “tricky,” ultimately will lead to a more stable financial system, where “truly promising innovations will attract capital” and where savers can actually save.

    Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair was dubbed “the little guy’s protector in chief” by Time Magazine in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.

    Bair sat down for an interview with Barron’s Live, MarketWatch edition, to talk about the ripple effects of higher rates, what could trigger another financial crisis and why more regional banks sitting on unrealized losses could fail in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March.

    “We probably will have more bank failures,” Bair said. “But you know what? Banks fail. It’s OK. The system goes on. It’s important for people to understand that households stay below the insured deposit caps.”

    The FDIC insures bank deposits up to $250,000 per account. It also has overseen 565 bank failures since 2001.

    “I know borrowing costs are going up, but your rewards for saving it are going up too,” she said. “I think that’s a very good thing.”

    However, Bair isn’t focused only on money traps and pitfalls for grown-ups. She also has two new picture books coming out that aim to explain big financial themes to young readers, including where easy-money ways, speculation and inflation come from.

    “One thing that I’ve learned from the kids is to not ask them what a loan is, because when I did that, a little hand when up, and she said: ‘That’s when you’re by yourself,’” Bair said.

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  • Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

    Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

    The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.

    The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
    seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.

    It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500
    SPX.

    Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF
    DIVL,
    use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.

    Dividend stocks are down

    Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD,
    which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY.
    Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:


    FactSet

    The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:

    Fund

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

    14.9%

    -18.2%

    -6.0%

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    -3.8%

    -3.2%

    -6.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y

    -4.7%

    -5.4%

    -9.9%

    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I

    -4.7%

    -5.3%

    -9.7%

    Source: FactSet

    Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.

    The opportunity — high relative yields

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index
    RUT,
    which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.

    The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD
    (because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:

    Index or ETF

    Dividend yield

    5-year Avg. yield 

    10-year Avg. yield 

    15-year Avg. yield 

    Relative yield

    5-year Avg. relative yield 

    10-year Avg. relative yield 

    15-year Avg. relative yield 

    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    3.99%

    3.41%

    3.20%

    3.16%

    2.6

    2.1

    1.8

    1.6

    S&P 500

    1.55%

    1.62%

    1.79%

    1.92%

    Source: FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.

    Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields

    After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.

    When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips
    COP,
    -0.29%

    and EOG Resources Inc.
    EOG,
    +0.52%
    .

    Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.

    Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Relative yield

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since the end of 2021

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    2.04%

    1.3

    31%

    -23%

    1%

    Home Depot, Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    2.79%

    1.8

    -3%

    -22%

    -25%

    Lowe’s Cos., Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    2.17%

    1.4

    3%

    -21%

    -19%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    4.24%

    2.7

    -3%

    -10%

    -13%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.89%

    3.8

    -22%

    -19%

    -37%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    3.62%

    2.3

    1%

    -23%

    -22%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    3.30%

    2.1

    -3%

    -10%

    -12%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    4.17%

    2.7

    -8%

    -16%

    -23%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    2.52%

    1.6

    2%

    -16%

    -15%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company, fund or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.

    Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:

    • If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc.
      HD,
      -0.39%

      five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.

    • If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.

    • That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.

    Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.

    Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:

    Company

    Ticker

    Five-year dividend CAGR

    Dividend yield on shares purchased five years ago

    Dividend yield five years ago

    Current dividend yield

    Five-year price change

    Five-year total return

    CME Group Inc. Class A

    CME,
    +0.47%
    9.46%

    2.44%

    1.55%

    2.04%

    20%

    42%

    Home Depot Inc.

    HD,
    -0.39%
    15.20%

    4.32%

    2.13%

    2.79%

    54%

    75%

    Lowe’s Cos, Inc.

    LOW,
    +0.27%
    18.04%

    4.14%

    1.81%

    2.17%

    91%

    109%

    Morgan Stanley

    MS,
    -1.54%
    23.16%

    7.62%

    2.69%

    4.24%

    80%

    108%

    U.S. Bancorp

    USB,
    -0.25%
    5.34%

    3.60%

    2.78%

    5.89%

    -39%

    -26%

    Medtronic PLC

    MDT,
    -4.32%
    6.65%

    2.90%

    2.10%

    3.62%

    -20%

    -9%

    Texas Instruments Inc.

    TXN,
    -0.21%
    11.04%

    5.24%

    3.10%

    3.30%

    59%

    82%

    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    UPS,
    -0.16%
    12.23%

    5.56%

    3.12%

    4.17%

    33%

    56%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    +1.52%
    10.20%

    3.37%

    2.07%

    2.52%

    34%

    49%

    Source: FactSet

    This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos.
    LOW,
    +0.27%

    was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc.
    UPS,
    -0.16%
    .
    But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.

    When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.94%

    last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”

    Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”

    Don’t miss: How to tell if it is worth avoiding taxes with a municipal-bond ETF

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  • U.S. stocks post 3-session climb as bond yields, oil retreat

    U.S. stocks post 3-session climb as bond yields, oil retreat

    U.S. stocks booked a 3-session win streak Tuesday as oil prices and bond yields retreated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.40%

    climbed about 134 points, or 0.4%, ending near 33,739, according to preliminary FactSet data. That was the longest streak of straight wins for the blue-chip index in a month, and the best three days of gains since late August, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.52%

    advanced 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +0.58%

    gained 0.6%. It was the third session in a row of gains for all three indexes. The brighter backdrop for stock market came as oil prices
    CL00,
    -0.69%

    and bond yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.663%

    retreated and after Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Fed, said he didn’t think additional rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target, but also that he still sees rates staying high for a “long time.”

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  • Stock market likely to see 12% retreat ahead of recession, says trader who called ’87 crash

    Stock market likely to see 12% retreat ahead of recession, says trader who called ’87 crash

    ‘The stock market, typically, right before recession declines about 12%.That’s probably going to happen at some point from some level.’


    — Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CIO, Tudor Investment Corp.

    That’s famed hedge-fund manager Paul Tudor Jones in an interview with CNBC Tuesday morning, explaining why he’s not enthusiastic about U.S. stocks and other risky assets as he awaits a recession induced by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening.

    Jones said it’s difficult to be positive on equities amid what he described as “the most threatening and challenging geopolitical environment that I’ve ever seen,” which is occurring “at the same time the United States is at its weakest fiscal position since World War II. It’s a really difficult time.”

    A 2023 rally in U.S. stocks has stalled, with the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    pulling back 5.5% from a 2023 high set on July 31, leaving the large-cap benchmark up 12.9% for the year to date through Monday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is up just 1.4% so far this year.

    Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history.

    So what does Jones like?

    “I would love gold and bitcoin, together,” he said.

    “I think [bitcoin and gold] probably take on a larger percentage of your portfolio than historically they would because we’re going to go through a challenging political time here in the United States and…we’ve obviously got a geopolitical situation” in Israel and Ukraine, Jones said.

    Bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    -0.72%

    was off 0.8% near $27,380 Tuesday morning and has rallied around 65% so far in 2023. Gold
    GC00,
    +0.59%

    has retreated from a high above $2,000 an ounce earlier this year, slumping below $1,850 last week as Treasury yields marched higher and the dollar strengthened.

    A pullback in U.S. bond yields has seen gold bounce 1.4% this week, trading recently near $1,871 an ounce.

    Large, speculative short positions in gold will provide fuel for a rally as a recession takes hold, the investor said.

    “In a recession, the market is typically really long assets like bitcoin and gold,” he said. “So there’s probably $40 billion worth of buying that has to come into gold at some point between now and if that recession actually occurs.

    “So yeah, I like bitcoin and I like gold right here,” Jones said.

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  • 1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns

    1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns

    A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.

    Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank
    DB,
    -1.40%
    .

    Read: Questions emerge over how Israeli intelligence missed Hamas attack

    Oil prices settled more than 4% higher on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy prices is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.

    Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every G-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.

    “So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”

    History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.


    Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank

    For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.

    Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”

    Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets during the early part of Monday, before stocks turned higher during the New York afternoon. All three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    finished higher in a volatile session. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

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  • 1970’s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, bank warns

    1970’s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, bank warns

    A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.

    Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank
    DB,
    -1.45%
    .

    Read: Questions emerge over how Israeli intelligence missed Hamas attack

    Oil prices jumped by more than 4% on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.

    Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every Group-of-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.

    “So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”

    History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.


    Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank

    For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.

    Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”

    Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets on Monday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    down in New York afternoon trading. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

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  • U.S. stocks staged a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks staged a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks saw a surprising bounce on Friday, culminating in the S&P 500 index’s biggest intraday comeback since the March banking crisis, even though a monthly jobs report for September came in much higher than expected.

    So, are investors no longer worried about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight or higher interest rates wrecking the U.S. economy?

    “Stocks initially sold off on the blockbuster jobs report which indicates the Fed may not be done,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “However, after digesting the strong labor market is still strong, stocks rallied. And why shouldn’t they? Will good news- finally – be good news?”

    Bolvin said part of the rally could be seasonal, with September typically being a rough months for stocks. There also has been increased optimism that the earnings recession for American corporations may be over, she said.

    Analysts are predicting corporate earnings growth rates of 5.9% for the fourth quarter for S&P500 companies, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Estimates are for the third-quarter of 2023 after the stock index’s fourth straight quarterly earnings decline on a year-over-year basis.

    At Friday’s session lows, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    was down 0.9%, but it ended up posting a 1.2% advance, its largest intraday comeback since March 24, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    booked a 0.9% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    rose 1.6% higher.

    “The movement in stocks today is certainly encouraging given yields are up as well,” said Chris Fasciano, portfolio manager, Commonwealth Financial Network. “But we will need to see follow through next week.”

    The yield on 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    note rose for five straight weeks in a row to 4.783% on Friday, while the 30-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    rose to 4.941%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    While the U.S. stock-market will be open for business on Monday, the bond market will be closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday, giving investors somewhat of a pause before a big week of economic data that could shape the Fed’s next decision on interest rates.

    “Ultimately, stocks and bonds will take their cues next week from the economic releases,” Fasciano told MarketWatch.

    Key items on the calendar for the week will be September inflation reports, with the producer-price index on Wednesday and the consumer-price index due Thursday. In between, Fed minutes of its policy meeting in September also are due to be released Wednesday.

    “That makes next week an important week for the future direction of both the bond and equity markets as the Fed will certainly be focused on those reports prior to their next meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1,” Fasciano said.

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  • U.S. stocks stage a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks stage a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks saw a surprising bounce on Friday, culminating in the S&P 500 index’s biggest intraday comeback since the March banking crisis, even though a monthly jobs report for September came in much higher than expected.

    So, are investors no longer worried about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight or higher interest rates wrecking the U.S. economy?

    “Stocks initially sold off on the blockbuster jobs report which indicates the Fed may not be done,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “However, after digesting the strong labor market is still strong, stocks rallied. And why shouldn’t they? Will good news- finally – be good news?”

    Bolvin said part of the rally could be seasonal, with September typically being a rough months for stocks. There also has been increased optimism that the earnings recession for American corporations may be over, she said.

    Analysts are predicting corporate earnings growth rates of 5.9% for the fourth quarter for S&P500 companies, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Estimates are for the third-quarter of 2023 after the stock index’s fourth straight quarterly earnings decline on a year-over-year basis.

    At Friday’s session lows, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    was down 0.9%, but it ended up posting a 1.2% advance, its largest intraday comeback since March 24, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    booked a 0.9% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    rose 1.6% higher.

    “The movement in stocks today is certainly encouraging given yields are up as well,” said Chris Fasciano, portfolio manager, Commonwealth Financial Network. “But we will need to see follow through next week.”

    The yield on 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    note rose for five straight weeks in a row to 4.783% on Friday, while the 30-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    rose to 4.941%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    While the U.S. stock-market will be open for business on Monday, the bond market will be closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday, giving investors somewhat of a pause before a big week of economic data that could shape the Fed’s next decision on interest rates.

    “Ultimately, stocks and bonds will take their cues next week from the economic releases,” Fasciano told MarketWatch.

    Key items on the calendar for the week will be September inflation reports, with the producer-price index on Wednesday and the consumer-price index due Thursday. In between, Fed minutes of its policy meeting in September also are due to be released Wednesday.

    “That makes next week an important week for the future direction of both the bond and equity markets as the Fed will certainly be focused on those reports prior to their next meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1,” Fasciano said.

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  • These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.

    First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500

    have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.

    Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.

    Sector or index

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since end of 2021

    1 week return

    1 month return

    Utilities

    -18.4%

    1.6%

    -17.2%

    -11.1%

    -9.6%

    Real Estate

    -7.1%

    -26.1%

    -31.4%

    -3.0%

    -8.8%

    Consumer Staples

    -5.4%

    -0.6%

    -6.0%

    -2.2%

    -4.4%

    Healthcare

    -4.2%

    -2.0%

    -6.1%

    -1.7%

    -3.3%

    Financials

    -2.5%

    -10.5%

    -12.7%

    -2.5%

    -4.7%

    Materials

    1.3%

    -12.3%

    -11.2%

    -1.9%

    -7.0%

    Industrials

    3.5%

    -5.5%

    -2.1%

    -1.8%

    -7.3%

    Energy

    4.0%

    65.7%

    72.4%

    -1.9%

    -1.4%

    Consumer Discretionary

    27.0%

    -37.0%

    -20.0%

    -0.6%

    -5.2%

    Information Technology

    36.5%

    -28.2%

    -2.0%

    0.8%

    -5.9%

    Communication Services

    42.5%

    -39.9%

    -14.3%

    1.1%

    -1.3%

    S&P 500
    13.1%

    -18.1%

    -7.4%

    -1.1%

    -4.9%

    DJ Industrial Average
    2.5%

    -6.9%

    -4.5%

    -1.7%

    -4.0%

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    28.0%

    -32.5%

    -13.7%

    0.3%

    -5.1%

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    36.5%

    -32.4%

    -7.7%

    0.5%

    -4.2%

    Source: FactSet

    Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.

    Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes

    jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds

    rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.

    Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007

    The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills

    yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.

    Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”

    Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:


    Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg

    Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.

    This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.

    We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.

    Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

    A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.

    Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:

    Sector or index

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    Forward P/E

    5-year average P/E

    10-year average P/E

    15-year average P/E

    Utilities

    82%

    86%

    95%

    14.99

    18.30

    17.40

    15.82

    Real Estate

    76%

    80%

    81%

    15.19

    19.86

    18.89

    18.72

    Consumer Staples

    93%

    96%

    105%

    18.61

    19.92

    19.30

    17.64

    Healthcare

    103%

    104%

    115%

    16.99

    16.46

    16.34

    14.72

    Financials

    88%

    92%

    97%

    12.90

    14.65

    14.08

    13.26

    Materials

    100%

    103%

    111%

    16.91

    16.98

    16.42

    15.27

    Industrials

    88%

    96%

    105%

    17.38

    19.84

    18.16

    16.56

    Energy

    106%

    63%

    73%

    11.78

    11.17

    18.80

    16.23

    Consumer Discretionary

    79%

    95%

    109%

    24.09

    30.41

    25.39

    22.10

    Information Technology

    109%

    130%

    146%

    24.20

    22.17

    18.55

    16.54

    Communication Services

    86%

    86%

    94%

    16.41

    19.09

    19.00

    17.43

    S&P 500
    94%

    101%

    112%

    17.94

    19.01

    17.76

    16.04

    DJ Industrial Average
    93%

    98%

    107%

    16.25

    17.49

    16.54

    15.17

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    92%

    102%

    102%

    24.62

    26.71

    24.18

    24.18

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    97%

    110%

    126%

    24.40

    25.23

    22.14

    19.43

    There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.

    If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.

    A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.

    We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:

    • Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.

    • “Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.

    Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.

    There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 89%

    N/A

    N/A

    AES Corp.

    AES 66%

    75%

    90%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 18%

    N/A

    N/A

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 42%

    50%

    N/A

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 51%

    57%

    N/A

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 39%

    49%

    70%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 39%

    50%

    73%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 60%

    63%

    21%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 59%

    68%

    N/A

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 96%

    78%

    53%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 61%

    N/A

    N/A

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 33%

    N/A

    N/A

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 27%

    N/A

    N/A

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 58%

    39%

    N/A

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 92%

    44%

    78%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 75%

    54%

    73%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 94%

    47%

    N/A

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 71%

    N/A

    N/A

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 93%

    73%

    N/A

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 75%

    61%

    67%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    News Corp
    NWSA
    is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.

    Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Oct. 2 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 74%

    $122.56

    $268.77

    119%

    AES Corp.

    AES 79%

    $14.16

    $25.60

    81%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 68%

    $165.04

    $279.00

    69%

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 71%

    $41.62

    $69.52

    67%

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 87%

    $36.83

    $61.31

    66%

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 75%

    $28.58

    $46.21

    62%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 81%

    $162.41

    $259.95

    60%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 95%

    $36.45

    $58.11

    59%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 100%

    $98.18

    $149.45

    52%

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 72%

    $45.70

    $68.15

    49%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 77%

    $260.04

    $384.89

    48%

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 69%

    $58.56

    $86.38

    48%

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 68%

    $198.24

    $276.69

    40%

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 74%

    $103.27

    $143.07

    39%

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 82%

    $49.13

    $67.13

    37%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 77%

    $53.55

    $72.67

    36%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 81%

    $73.22

    $98.60

    35%

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 100%

    $92.23

    $123.50

    34%

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 78%

    $20.00

    $26.42

    32%

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 77%

    $69.69

    $90.88

    30%

    Source: FactSet

    A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.

    Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market

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  • Stocks end mostly higher Monday despite resumed U.S. debt selloff

    Stocks end mostly higher Monday despite resumed U.S. debt selloff

    Stocks closed mostly higher to kick off October as a sharp selloff in longer-dated U.S. government debt resumed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.22%

    fell about 74 points, or 0.2%, ending near 33,433, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.01%

    ended flat at 4,288, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +0.67%

    gained 0.7%. Surging long-term borrowing costs remain a key focus in the final quarter of 2023, with the fear being they could derail the U.S. economy and spark more corporate defaults. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was punching higher to about 4.682% on Monday. Evidence of the debt rout could be found in the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF,
    TLT,
    -1.98%

    which cemented its lowest close since since August 2007 and in the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF,
    AGG,
    -0.70%

    which finished at its lowest since October 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors in short U.S. government T-bills, however, have been mostly insulated from recent volatility, with yields steady in the 5.5% range, according to TradeWeb data.

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  • BBVA to Launch $1.1 Bln Buyback After ECB Approval

    BBVA to Launch $1.1 Bln Buyback After ECB Approval

    By Adria Calatayud

    Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is launching a share buyback program of up to 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) after it received authorization from the European Central Bank.

    The Spanish bank said Monday that the buyback program, under which it intends to repurchase up to 564.6 million shares, will start Monday and end no later than September 2024.

    BBVA said in July it had requested ECB authorization to launch a buyback program alongside its second-quarter results.

    Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

    Source link

  • How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    Carnage in the bond market in September could tee up an opportunity for investors to earn big returns on U.S. government debt in a year.

    Owners of 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    notes at recent yields of around 4.5% could reap up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy stumbles into a recession, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

    The key would be for U.S. debt to rally significantly as investors scramble for safety in the roughly $25 trillion treasury market.

    “U.S. yields remain well above long-term equilibrium levels, providing scope for them to fall as the macroeconomic outlook becomes more supportive for bonds,” a team led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a Friday client note.

    Their base-case call is for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% in 12 months, with it easing back to 4% in an upside scenario for growth, and for the economy’s benchmark rate to tumble as low as 2.75% in a downside scenario of a U.S. recession.

    “That would translate into total returns over the period of 14% in our base case, 10% in our upside economic scenario, and 20% in our downside scenario.”

    See: The market ‘may be overpaying you’ on a 10-year Treasury, says Lloyd Blankfein

    A rally in Treasury debt could help boost funds that track the Treasury market and the broader U.S. bond sector. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    was down 10.9% on the year through Friday, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
    AGG
    was 3% lower, according to FactSet.

    A tug of war has been developing in the Treasury market, with fear gripping investors this week as bond yields spike in the wake of signals last week from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than many on Wall Street anticipated.

    “Bond vigilantes” unhappy about the U.S. deficit have been demanding higher yields, while households and hedge funds have been piling into Treasury securities since the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

    Much hinges on how painful things get if rates stay high, which would ratchet up borrowing costs for households, companies and the U.S. government as the Fed works to get falling inflation down to its 2% target.

    Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman this week said he thinks Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, as part of his bet that the 30-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    has more room to climb.

    The 10-year Treasury edged lower to 4.572% on Friday, after adding almost 50 basis points in September, which helped the stock market reclaim some lost ground in a dismal month, while the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.709%, according to FactSet.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    posted a 3.5% decline in September, its biggest monthly loss since February, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    shed 5.8% for the month.

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  • Biden calls on Republicans to ‘keep their word about support for Ukraine’

    Biden calls on Republicans to ‘keep their word about support for Ukraine’

    President Joe Biden, speaking at the White House on Sunday some 12 hours after signing stopgap legislation to avert a federal government shutdown, called on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and fellow Republicans to maintain the U.S.’s commitment to assist Ukraine in its ongoing defense against the Russian invasion that began in February 2022. McCarthy, the president said, has committed to bring a Ukraine assistance bill to the House floor, after McCarthy, who has to varying degrees publicly expressed support for the Ukraine cause, removed Ukraine funds from the 45-day continuing resolution passed Saturday, with Democratic backing, to assuage his own intraparty detractors. “Let’s be clear,” said Biden. “I hope my friends on the other side [of the aisle] keep their word about support for Ukraine. They said they’re going to support Ukraine in a separate vote.” Biden called the government-shutdown near-miss “a manufactured crisis” brought about when Republicans walked away from the compromises reached in May, when McCarthy and Biden came together to resolve a debt-ceiling impasse. “I’m sick and tired of the brinksmanship.”

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