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Tag: Bank of England

  • Bank of England Warns of an AI Bubble Burst

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    The central bank of the United Kingdom is worried about an AI bubble burst.

    “On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI),” the bank’s financial policy committee said, according to a record of its latest meeting. “This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic.”

    The Bank also warned that stock market price valuations were comparable to the peak of the dot-com bubble, and the market share of the top five members of the S&P 500 was at its highest concentration in 50 years. Those five companies are, unsurprisingly, AI-focused tech giants Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta.

    All five of these companies are spending eye-watering figures on AI, and the stock market loves it. Microsoft became the second company to ever hit a $4 trillion market valuation earlier this year after posting its largest ever quarterly expenditure forecast. Nvidia, on the other hand, is the first and only company in the world to hit a $4.5 trillion market cap.

    “Material bottlenecks to AI progress – from power, data, or commodity supply chains – as well as conceptual breakthroughs which change the anticipated AI infrastructure requirements for the development and utilisation of powerful AI models could also harm valuations, including for companies whose revenue expectations are derived from high levels of anticipated AI infrastructure investment,” the bank said.

    Fed researchers issued a similar warning earlier this year. While that alert did not identify an immediate risk of an AI bubble, the researchers pointed out that a risk that comes with building expensive infrastructure too quickly for anticipated demand was that demand might not grow as expected. In that case, it could lead to “disastrous consequences,” the Fed warned, likening it to the railroad over-expansion of the 1800s that led to an economic depression towards the turn of the century.

    These top AI companies with high revenue expectations are also heavily reliant on each other financially, increasing worries of a cascade effect if a bubble bursts. AI companies ink multibillion-dollar deals with each other over and over again, injecting more money into the system and ballooning stock valuations with each deal.

    While that’s happening, some experts are admitting overvaluation.

    Apollo Global Management’s chief economist Torsten Slok said in July that the AI bubble of today is actually worse than the 1999 dot-com bubble. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also admitted in August that he thinks investors are “over-excited about AI.

    The main downside risks of AI overvaluation, according to the bank, also include disappointing AI capability or adoption progress.

    A recent MIT report found that despite the major push to adopt AI in the corporate world, fewer than one in ten AI pilot programs actually generated real revenue gains. The report spooked investors enough that AI stocks immediately slid following the headlines in August.

    Last month, the Census Bureau showed that the rate of AI adoption by large companies had been declining slightly.

    Nonetheless, executives keep assuring investors that AI demand is scaling rapidly as the technology finds its way into more and more areas of life. AI computing demand is up “substantially” in the past six months, according to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments on Wednesday.

    But if the tech giants are wrong and the Bank of England’s risk scenario does end up being the case, the bank warned that a sudden, sharp correction could occur, “adversely affecting the cost and availability of finance for households and businesses.”

    The U.S. has reason to be afraid of this. According to recent reports, the AI spending frenzy is not just propping up the American stock market, but it’s also lifting the real economy. According to Harvard economist James Furman‘s calculations, U.S. GDP growth in the first half of the year was almost entirely driven by investments made in data centers and other information-processing technology.

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    Ece Yildirim

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  • Bank of England warns CHAPS payment system experiencing delays | Bank Automation News

    Bank of England warns CHAPS payment system experiencing delays | Bank Automation News

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    The Bank of England warned that its CHAPS service — one of the largest high-value payment systems in the world — has been affected by a global payments issue, causing some large, time-sensitive payments to be delayed. Some UK house sales have been hit by problems with the system, which stands for the UK’s Clearing […]

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    Bloomberg News

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  • When will King Charles’ face appear on bank notes and coins?

    When will King Charles’ face appear on bank notes and coins?

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    COINS and notes are set to get a major makeover following the death of the Queen.

    King Charles III has replaced her on the currency – but both portraits will stay in circulation for some time yet.

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    King Charles will replace Queen Elizabeth on coins and notes after her deathCredit: Reuters
    Banknotes featuring King Charles III's face are entering circulation

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    Banknotes featuring King Charles III’s face are entering circulation

    The Royal Mint and Bank of England which produce coins and notes have said that they will co-circulate at the same time.

    All currency for the past 70 years has featured Queen Elizabeth II

    The Queen reigned from 1952, so most Brits will have only ever had her face lining their wallets, on coins, notes and more.

    Coins bearing the effigy of the King have already entered circulation.

    They will circulate alongside coins featuring the Queen “for many years to come” the Royal Mint said.

    When will King Charles III’s face appear on coins and notes?

    Bank notes featuring the new monarch entered circulation on June 5, 2024.

    Notes featuring the Queen’s portrait already made will still be put into circulation.

    New notes will only be printed to replace worn banknotes and to meet any overall increase in demand for banknotes.

    This is to reduce the environmental impact and save on costs.

    On all current coins the Queen’s portrait faces the right, but Charles looks to the left because of a tradition that means the way the monarch faces must change with each new successor.

    Rarest and most valuable Olympic Coins to look out for ahead of Paris 2024 worth upto £1,000 – exact details to spot

    The most recent image of the Queen on coins is the fifth portrait, designed by Jody Clark. 

    It was issued in 2015 and shows a side profile of the Queen wearing a crown and drop earrings.

    It features on £1 coins, £2 coins, 50ps, and 20ps, all the way down to copper pennies.

    Meanwhile, on British notes, a similar image of the Queen has been in place since the 90s.

    New coins and notes were made when the Queen’s father George VI, the former King of England, passed too.

    When will coins and notes with the Queen’s face on end?

    The current circulating designs will be discontinued and a new design that represents the new head of state will replace them.

    But it won’t all happen straight away.

    Any coins or notes you have on you now will still be legal tender for a while yet.

    We don’t know exactly when each design will be removed from circulation.

    There are around 27 billion coins currently circulating in the UK bearing the effigy of the Queen.

    These will be replaced over time as they become damaged or worn, and to meet demand for additional coins.

    When the Queen came to power though, coins with her father’s image stayed in circulation for almost 20 years after his death.

    But they were removed when decimalisation was introduced in 1971.

    Production of coins won’t abruptly stop either.

    The Royal Mint manufactures between three million and four million coins a day, and it’s likely to continue with the production of the current portrait and design until the end of the year at least.

    That means we won’t see any new styles crop up in change until 2024.  The same goes for notes.

    Notes went through a major style change when they changed from paper to plastic – and the slow process means some paper copies are still legal tender even now.

    But bank notes are updated approximately every 15 years anyway, so it won’t be long before current designs disappear altogether.

    What kind of value will current coins and notes hold?

    As the currency with the Queen on will eventually cease to be produced altogether, they’ll be harder to come across.

    That means collectors will be more desperate to snap up copies as they become rarer over time, with the new designs taking the lead in popularity and production.

    Rarer coins and notes are often more valuable, and can sometimes sell for hundreds of pounds more than face value at auction – if the right bidder is interested.

    What are the most rare and valuable coins?

    Does it affect anyone outside the UK?

    During her reign, the Queen was head of the Commonwealth, so that meant her portrait was used on plenty of other countries’ currency too.

    The Queen appears on the Canadian $20 bill for example, as well as on the Australian dollar coin. 

    Now that Charles has taken over, these designs will also have to change just like coins and notes on our side of the pond.

    According to The Coin Expert this will take longer than it will in this country though.

    That’s because it is easier to enforce a new design in the country it originates from rather than elsewhere, where other rules may get in the way.

    Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

    Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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    Sun Reporter

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  • Tokenizing assets on blockchain may elevate systemic risks, warns Bank of England

    Tokenizing assets on blockchain may elevate systemic risks, warns Bank of England

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    The Bank of England’s financial stability report highlights the potential risks and increasing interest in asset tokenization within the financial sector, underscoring the need for global regulatory coordination.

    The report notes an increasing positivity among banks towards leveraging crypto technologies, including programmable ledgers and smart contracts, for the tokenization of money and real-world assets.

    Tokenization, defined as issuing a digital asset representation, is rapidly gaining traction in the crypto ecosystem and is projected to evolve into a $10 trillion market by 2030, according to 21.co, an asset management company. This trend is exemplified by moves from major financial players like HSBC venturing into a digital-assets custody service focused on tokenized securities. Societe Generale has recently executed a €10 million sale of tokenized green bonds on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain.

    However, this growth trajectory raises concerns. The Bank of England’s report cautions that “increasing size could pose risks for the wider financial environment.” The expansion could “increase the interconnectedness of markets for crypto and traditional financial assets (since they are represented on the same ledger) and create direct exposures for systemic institutions.”

    Acknowledging the current limitations of these risks, the Bank of England underlines the necessity of ongoing vigilance and global regulatory cooperation. The report asserts, “International coordination can reduce the risks of cross-border spillovers, regulatory arbitrage, and market fragmentation,” echoing the sentiments of lawmakers cheering for a coordinated regulatory approach to fund tokenization.


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    Bralon Hill

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  • UK in crypto regulation lead as BOE targets stablecoins

    UK in crypto regulation lead as BOE targets stablecoins

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    In an ambitious move to position the U.K. as a front-runner in the cryptocurrency sector, the government and the Bank of England (BOE) are introducing sweeping regulations for stablecoins and digital currencies.

    The BOE’s strategy primarily focuses on regulating stablecoins integral to payment systems by early 2024. This approach is driven by a belief that stablecoins, typically linked to stable assets like the British pound, pose less risk to the financial system compared to other cryptocurrencies.

    Consequently, the BOE’s regulatory framework is designed to maintain the resilience of these digital currencies within significant payment infrastructures.

    Moreover, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will oversee the broader crypto market, ensuring a comprehensive regulatory umbrella covering all aspects of digital currency operations.

    Lawmakers advise caution

    This dual regulatory mechanism is a thoughtful response to the complexities and varied risks presented by different types of digital currencies.

    The regulations are the latest in a series of moves the U.K. government has been making to streamline the crypto space in the island kingdom. In August, the BOE, in conjunction with HM Treasury, invited interested parties to join an advisory group to explore the feasibility of a digital pound.

    Following the announcement, the BOE received more than 50,000 responses, underscoring widespread public concern regarding privacy, the use of cash, and the pound’s future trajectory.

    However, the BOE’s quest for a digital pound has not been without criticism. According to Bloomberg, U.K. lawmakers are questioning whether the digital pound is needed.

    The influential Treasury Committee chaired by Conservative MP Harriett Baldwin has urged the BOE to “proceed with caution” and consider measures to stem the risks that may come with a digital pound.

    Per the Bloomberg report, the committee asked the central bank to consider whether the digital pound was worth the trouble since it could jeopardize the traditional banking system and cause privacy concerns.

    UK diverges from US approach 

    An intriguing aspect of the UK’s regulatory plan is the allowance for stablecoin companies to earn returns from the assets backing their coins. This approach, however, has sparked debates over fairness.

    The concern lies in how rising interest rates might enable companies to profit from these assets, while consumers may not see equivalent benefits. Aware of this potential imbalance, regulators are poised to closely monitor the situation. 

    Furthermore, with the implementation of these regulations, the U.K. is positioning itself alongside other countries including Japan and the European Union. These nations have already set similar regulatory frameworks, indicating a global trend toward standardized digital currency governance.

    This move starkly contrasts with the U.S., which has yet to release a comprehensive framework for stablecoins and the broader crypto market.

    These developments signal a significant shift in the U.K.’s approach to digital currencies under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership, in which the nation is attempting to safeguard its financial system and consumers. 


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    Julius Mutunkei

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  • Consultation on digital pound attracts more than 50,000 responses, privacy is key concern

    Consultation on digital pound attracts more than 50,000 responses, privacy is key concern

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    The Bank of England’s consultation on the digital pound has sparked widespread public debate, underscoring critical concerns about privacy, cash usage and the currency’s future trajectory.

    The Bank of England has received more than 50,000 responses, on its idea of introducing a digital pound. Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe talked about this in his speech, pointing out that people are worried about how private their information will be, what might happen to cash, and how the digital pound would actually work.

    Cunliffe said that if people use the digital pound, their information would be as private as it is now when they make electronic payments. He assured everyone that the Bank of England wouldn’t see people’s personal data.

    Even with these assurances, it’s important to think about how safe data truly is when dealing with digital currency.

    The responses were also worried the central bank may control how the digital pound is used. Cunliffe said that’s not going to happen, and that private companies would be the ones to make and offer services for the digital pound, with users’ permission.

    This leads to another issue about how much power private companies could have, and if that could lead to additional problems.

    Critics believe the digital pound might be adopted too quickly, which could have a negative impact on the banking system and create financial instability. Others wonder if it is really needed at all, calling it a “solution looking for a problem.”

    Cunliffe mentioned that banks and the government are trying to ensure cash remains available, but brings up the question of whether a divide between cash and digital money is being created.

    To combat this, the Bank of England is proposing limits on how much digital currency can be held, especially at the start of issuance.

    Cunliffe also said they would be talking about the rules for stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency, soon which could show the bank’s thoughts on more digital money options.


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    Bralon Hill

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  • US, UK Take Extraordinary Steps To Stem Fallout From Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

    US, UK Take Extraordinary Steps To Stem Fallout From Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

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    NEW YORK (AP) — Governments in the UK and U.S. took extraordinary steps to stop a potential banking crisis after the historic failure of Silicon Valley Bank, even as another major bank was shut down.

    The UK Treasury and the Bank of England announced early Monday that they had facilitated the sale of Silicon Valley Bank UK to HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, ensuring the security of 6.7 billion pounds ($8.1 billion) of deposits.

    British officials worked throughout the weekend to find a buyer for the UK subsidiary of the California-based bank. Its collapse was the second-largest bank failure in history.

    U.S. regulators also worked all weekend to try to find a buyer. Those efforts appeared to have failed Sunday, but U.S. officials assured all depositors that they could access all their money quickly.

    The announcement came amid fears that the factors that caused the Santa Clara, California-based bank to fail could spread.

    Santa Clara Police officers exit Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara, Calif., on March 10, 2023.

    In a sign of how fast the financial bleeding was occurring, regulators announced that New York-based Signature Bank had also failed and was being seized on Sunday. At more than $110 billion in assets, Signature Bank is the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history.

    The near-financial crisis left Asian markets jittery as trading began Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 sank 1.6% in morning trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.3% and South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.4%. But Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.4% and the Shanghai Composite increased 0.3%.

    In an effort to shore up confidence in the banking system, the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and FDIC said Sunday that all Silicon Valley Bank clients would be protected and able to access their money. They also announced steps that are intended to protect the bank’s customers and prevent additional bank runs.

    “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth,” the agencies said in a joint statement.

    Under the plan, depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, including those whose holdings exceed the $250,000 insurance limit, will be able to access their money on Monday.

    Also Sunday, another beleaguered bank, First Republic Bank, announced that it had bolstered its financial health by gaining access to funding from the Fed and JPMorgan Chase.

    In a separate announcement, the Fed late Sunday announced an expansive emergency lending program that’s intended to prevent a wave of bank runs that would threaten the stability of the banking system and the economy as a whole. Fed officials characterized the program as akin to what central banks have done for decades: Lend freely to the banking system so that customers would be confident that they could access their accounts whenever needed.

    The lending facility will allow banks that need to raise cash to pay depositors to borrow that money from the Fed, rather than having to sell Treasuries and other securities to raise the money. Silicon Valley Bank had been forced to dump some of its Treasuries at at a loss to fund its customers’ withdrawals. Under the Fed’s new program, banks can post those securities as collateral and borrow from the emergency facility.

    The Treasury has set aside $25 billion to offset any losses incurred under the Fed’s emergency lending facility. Fed officials said, however, that they do not expect to have to use any of that money, given that the securities posted as collateral have a very low risk of default.

    Analysts said the Fed’s program should be enough to calm financial markets.

    “Monday will surely be a stressful day for many in the regional banking sector, but today’s action dramatically reduces the risk of further contagion,” economists at Jefferies, an investment bank, said in a research note.

    Though Sunday’s steps marked the most extensive government intervention in the banking system since the 2008 financial crisis, its actions are relatively limited compared with what was done 15 years ago. The two failed banks themselves have not been rescued, and taxpayer money has not been provided to the banks.

    President Joe Biden said Sunday evening as he boarded Air Force One back to Washington that he would speak about the bank situation on Monday. In a statement, Biden also said he was “firmly committed to holding those responsible for this mess fully accountable and to continuing our efforts to strengthen oversight and regulation of larger banks so that we are not in this position again.”

    Regulators had to rush to close Silicon Valley Bank, a financial institution with more than $200 billion in assets, on Friday when it experienced a traditional run on the bank where depositors rushed to withdraw their funds all at once. It is the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, behind only the 2008 failure of Washington Mutual.

    Some prominent Silicon Valley executives feared that if Washington didn’t rescue the failed bank, customers would make runs on other financial institutions in the coming days. Stock prices plunged over the last few days at other banks that cater to technology companies, including First Republic Bank and PacWest Bank.

    Among the bank’s customers are a range of companies from California’s wine industry, where many wineries rely on Silicon Valley Bank for loans, and technology startups devoted to combating climate change. Sunrun, which sells and leases solar energy systems, had less than $80 million of cash deposits with Silicon Valley. Stitchfix, the clothing retail website, disclosed recently that it had a credit line of up to $100 million with Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders.

    Tiffany Dufu, founder and CEO of The Cru, a New York-based career coaching platform and community for women, posted a video Sunday on LinkedIn from an airport bathroom, saying the bank crisis was testing her resiliency. Given that her money was tied up at Silicon Valley Bank, she had to pay her employees out of her personal bank account. With two teenagers to support who will be heading to college, she said she was relieved to hear that the government’s intent is to make depositors whole.

    “Small businesses and early-stage startups don’t have a lot of access to leverage in a situation like this, and we’re often in a very vulnerable position, particularly when we have to fight so hard to get the wires into your bank account to begin with, particularly for me, as a Black female founder,” Dufu told The Associated Press.

    Silicon Valley Bank began its slide into insolvency when its customers, largely technology companies that needed cash as they struggled to get financing, started withdrawing their deposits. The bank had to sell bonds at a loss to cover the withdrawals, leading to the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the height of the financial crisis.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pointed to rising interest rates, which have been increased by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, as the core problem for Silicon Valley Bank. Many of its assets, such as bonds or mortgage-backed securities, lost market value as rates climbed.

    Sheila Bair, who was chairwoman of the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis, recalled that with nearly all the bank failures then, “we sold a failed bank to a healthy bank. And usually, the healthy acquirer would also cover the uninsured because they wanted the franchise value of those large depositors so optimally, that’s the best outcome.”

    But with Silicon Valley Bank, she told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” “this was a liquidity failure, it was a bank run, so they didn’t have time to prepare to market the bank. So they’re having to do that now, and playing catch-up.”

    Rugaber and Megerian reported from Washington. Sweet and Bussewitz reported from New York.

    Associated Press Writers Hope Yen in Washington, Jennifer McDermott in Providence, Rhode Island, and Danica Kirka in London contributed to this report.

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  • Asia shares slip, make or break day for UK bonds

    Asia shares slip, make or break day for UK bonds

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    Asian share markets slipped on Monday following another drubbing for Wall Street as investors brace for further drastic tightening in global financial conditions, with all the risks of recession that brings.

    Concerns about financial stability added to the corrosive mix with all eyes on UK bonds now that the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) emergency buying spree is over.

    Prime Minister Liz Truss decision to fire her finance minister might help reassure investors, but her own fate is unclear with media reporting Tory lawmakers will try and replace her this week. 

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned over the weekend that rates might have to rise by more than thought just a couple of months ago. 

    “The BoE was doing emergency bond-buying that’s technically identical to QE with one hand, while furiously raising the policy rate with the other,” said analysts at ANZ in a note.

    “Monday’s market action will provide a test, not only for the survival of Truss’ low-tax vision, but also her political future.”

    Sterling was quoted up 0.6% at $1.1240, but trading was sparse with little liquidity in Asia.

    In equity markets, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.5% and back toward last week’s 2-1/2 year low. Japan’s Nikkei shed 1.1% and South Korea 1.5%.

    S&P 500 futures ESc1 edged up 0.5% after Friday’s sharp retreat, while Nasdaq futures NQc1 added 0.4%.

    While the S&P is an eye-watering 25% off its peak, BofA economist Jared Woodard warned the slide was not over given the world was transitioning from two decades of 2% inflation to a time of something more like 5% inflation.

    “$70 trillion of ‘new’ tech, growth, and government bond assets priced for a 2% world are vulnerable to these secular shifts as ‘old’ industries like energy and materials surge, reversing decades of under-investment,” he wrote in a note.

    “Rotating out of 60/40 proxies and buying what is scarce – power, food, energy – is the best way for investors to diversify.”

    INTERVENTION WATCH

    A red-hot US inflation report last week has markets fully expecting the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 75 basis points next month, and likely by the same again in December. 

    A host of Fed policymakers are speaking this week, so there will be plenty of opportunity for hawkish headlines. The earnings season also continues with Tesla Inc, Netflix and Johnson & Johnson reporting, among others.

    In China, the Communist Party Congress is expected to grant a third term to President Xi Jinping, while there could be a reshuffle of top economic roles as incumbents are near retirement age or term-limits. Read full story

    In currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%.

    The yen has been particularly hard hit as the Bank of Japan sticks to its super-easy policy, while the authorities refrained from intervention last week even as the dollar sped past the 148.00 level to 32-year peaks.

    Early Monday, the dollar was up at 148.62 yen and heading for the next target at 150.00.

    The euro was holding at $0.9733, having put in a steadier performance last week, while the U.S. dollar index eased a fraction to 113.20.

    The rise of the dollar and global bond yields has been a drag for gold, which was stuck at $1,646 an ounce. 

    Oil prices were trying to bounce after sinking more than 6% last week as fears of a demand slowdown outweighed OPEC’s plans to cut output.

    Brent LCOc1 firmed 64 cents to $92.27 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 rose 55 cents to $86.16 per barrel.

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