DHAKA, Feb 26 (Reuters) – A court in Bangladesh ordered authorities to seek an Interpol red notice against British lawmaker and former minister Tulip Siddiq on Thursday over alleged corruption linked to a private real estate project in the capital.
The court issued the order after the Anti-Corruption Commission filed a petition seeking international assistance for her arrest. The ACC alleges that Siddiq used her close family ties to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to influence the allocation of government land to a private company.
Siddiq, who is Hasina’s niece, has repeatedly denied the allegations, describing earlier verdicts against her as “flawed and farcical”. She has also said she is a British citizen, not a Bangladeshi national.
She did not immediately respond to email requests for comment, and there was no immediate reaction from her following the latest court order.
SENTENCED TO SIX YEARS IN PRISON
Bangladesh courts have already sentenced Siddiq to a total of six years in prison in three separate corruption cases, all related to alleged abuse of influence during Hasina’s time in office.
Siddiq resigned in January last year from her role as economic secretary to the Treasury under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, citing mounting political pressure over her links to Hasina, though she insisted she had been cleared of wrongdoing.
Britain does not have an extradition treaty with Bangladesh.
Hasina was ousted in 2024 amid a student‑led mass uprising that ended her 15‑year rule. She fled to neighbouring India that August at the height of the protests and has remained there since. She was later sentenced to death by a Bangladeshi court over her government’s violent crackdown on demonstrators.
Following Hasina’s removal, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus led an interim administration that oversaw an election on February 12, after which a new government took office under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the son of Hasina’s arch‑rival and former premier Khaleda Zia.
(Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by Alex Richardson)
DHAKA, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Tarique Rahman was sworn in as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Tuesday, marking a decisive political shift in the South Asian nation after his party’s sweeping parliamentary election victory.
Rahman, 60, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and assassinated President Ziaur Rahman, takes office facing urgent challenges, including restoring political stability, rebuilding investor confidence, and reviving key industries such as the garment sector after the prolonged turmoil that followed the Gen Z‑led uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s government in 2024.
An interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus ran the country through the transitional period leading up to the election.
Breaking with tradition, the swearing‑in ceremony was held under the open sky at the South Plaza of the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban, the national parliament building, instead of the Bangabhaban, the president’s official residence where such events are usually organised.
President Mohammed Shahabuddin officiated as Rahman and his cabinet took their oaths in the presence of senior political figures, diplomats, civil and military officials, and representatives from invited countries, including China, India and Pakistan.
Rahman’s BNP secured a commanding two‑thirds majority, returning to power after nearly two decades. The Islamist party Jamaat‑e‑Islami, contesting its first election since a 2013 ban was lifted following Hasina’s ouster, won a record 68 seats.
Hasina’s Awami League party was banned from contesting after its registration was revoked by the Election Commission.
Jamaat and its allies — including the National Citizen Party, led by youth activists who played a prominent role in the movement that toppled Hasina — will form the opposition.
Rahman’s elevation caps a long and turbulent political journey. He returned to Bangladesh last year after 17 years of self‑imposed exile in London, arriving shortly before his mother’s death.
Rivals have long criticised his political record, pointing to corruption allegations he denies, but his return energised party supporters and reshaped the BNP’s campaign.
In his first remarks after the election, Rahman urged calm and restraint, saying: “Peace, law and order must be maintained at any cost.” He called on supporters to avoid retaliation, warning: “We will not tolerate any kind of chaos.”
(Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by YP Rajesh and Kate Mayberry)
GOPALGANJ, Bangladesh, Feb 6 (Reuters) – For the first time in decades, the image that once defined the hometown of Bangladesh’s ousted premier Sheikh Hasina during elections, her Awami League party’s “boat” symbol, is absent.
In its place, posters of rivals like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Jamaat‑e‑Islami party and independents urge voters in Gopalganj to back them in the February 12 election.
The Gopalganj district has long been considered the Awami League’s safest ground, producing Hasina, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, and her father, Bangladesh’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
Hasina ruled for more than 15 straight years until 2024, with the opposition either boycotting elections or marginalised through mass arrests of senior leaders. A youth‑driven uprising toppled Hasina in August 2024 and sent her into exile in India.
Her party has since been barred from the February election, being held under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Hasina told Reuters last October via email that the absence of the Awami League would leave millions of supporters without a candidate and push many to boycott the election.
“They can put up as many posters as they want,” said Gopalganj rickshaw puller Ershad Sheikh, standing under layers of opposition posters hanging from poles.
“If there is no boat on the ballot paper, none of the 13 voters in my family will go to the polling station.”
A Dhaka court late last year sentenced Hasina to death for ordering a deadly crackdown on the 2024 uprising. A United Nations report estimated that up to 1,400 people were killed and thousands wounded — most by gunfire from security forces, though Hasina denied ordering the killings.
AWAMI LEAGUE VOTERS SHIFTING TO BNP, JAMAAT
A survey of various voters published this month found that nearly half of former Awami League voters now prefer the BNP, the frontrunner in most opinion polls, followed by roughly 30% who favour Jamaat.
“These patterns suggest that former Awami League voters are not dispersing evenly across the party system or withdrawing from partisan preferences, but are instead consolidating their support around specific opposition alternatives,” said the survey by Dhaka-based Communication & Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies.
In Gopalganj, families of Awami League activists say the transition away from Hasina has come at a high personal cost.
Shikha Khanam’s brother, Ibrahim Hossain, 30, an activist in the party’s student wing, was arrested in December under the Anti-Terrorism Act over unrest at a rally in July last year. Khanam said her brother had been falsely implicated.
Her family has now withdrawn completely from politics.
“We won’t vote. We are done,” she said.
The July rally in Gopalganj, organised by the newly formed student‑led National Citizen Party to mark the 2024 uprising, left five people dead in clashes with police. Several Awami League activists and members of minority communities said they are now living in fear.
Restaurant waiter Mohabbat Molla said the wider choice of candidates changes nothing for him.
“Our candidate isn’t here,” he said, referring to Hasina. “The Awami League isn’t here. So this election is not for us.”
Others see hope in the changing election bunting now hanging from Gopalganj’s walls.
Businessman Sheikh Ilias Ahmed hopes the upcoming vote will finally allow people to choose freely.
“In the past, I went to the polling station and found my vote already cast,” he said. “This time, I want to believe things will be different.”
What Awami League voters do next may shape the outcome, said political analyst Asif Shahan, a professor at the University of Dhaka.
“I don’t expect a nationwide boycott,” said Shahan.
“The core loyalists may abstain, but undecided, locally focused voters are likely to turn out and could decide the result.”
(Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Michael Perry)
DHAKA, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Dhaka University student Sadman Mujtaba Rafid defied his parents and police to join protests that toppled former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, convinced the rallies were essential to ensure democracy prevailed over dynastic rule.
But ahead of the February 12 parliamentary election – the first since the upheaval – some of Rafid’s optimism has faded.
“We dreamt of a country where all people regardless of gender, race, religion would have equal opportunity,” the 25-year-old said. “We expected policy changes and reforms, but it is far away from what we dreamt of.”
Tens of thousands of young Bangladeshis, frustrated by years of repression and a lack of jobs and economic opportunity under Hasina’s rule, poured into the streets in 2024, eager for radical change and a “New Bangladesh”.
But while the elections will deliver a government without Hasina for the first time since 2008, there has been no major reform and no new viable alternative party has emerged, according to many, leaving the battle for government mostly between former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami.
Opinion polls put the established, but tarnished, parties as frontrunners.
Reuters spoke to more than 80 students under 30, mostly in the capital Dhaka. Most expressed excitement about voting in a freer election but were disappointed with the choice of candidates.
‘OLD GUARD VS STUDENT-ISLAMIST ALLIANCE’
Under 30s, popularly known as Gen-Z, drove the uprising and make up more than a quarter of Bangladesh’s 128 million voters.
“They are politically active and will in all likelihood go to vote and affect the electoral outcome,” said political analyst Asif Shahan, who teaches at Dhaka University.
Most were expected to back the newly-formed National Citizens Party (NCP), spearheaded by some of the uprising’s leaders, but it has struggled for their support.
An alliance with the hardline Jamaat-e-Islami may have further undermined its appeal.
“They have lost the moral high ground,” said Shudrul Amin, a 23-year-old archaeology student at Jahangirnagar University. “Voters who wanted a ‘New Bangladesh’ free from the baggage of the past now feel they are being forced to choose between the old guard and a student‑Islamist alliance.”
Shama Debnath, a 24-year-old Hindu, said politics remained “trapped in an ‘either this or that’ framework” with no new vision or choices.
‘SPIRIT OF REVOLUTION LOST’
The interim government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has also disappointed many in Gen-Z after it failed to rein in mob violence targeting journalists and minorities.
“After a year, I feel the spirit of the July revolution is completely lost,” said Hema Chakma, a 23-year-old Buddhist student. “I am not saying the previous situation was good, but I feel the violence has increased a lot and the interim government is not taking any steps.”
Interviews with young Bangladeshis also betrayed unhappiness with the economy, the spark for the revolt that led to Hasina’s eventual exile in India.
NCP’s spokesperson Asif Mahmud, 27, who rose to prominence during the protests and served in Yunus’ government, said the party was constrained by being new and having mostly younger members. It also lacked resources, grassroots organisation and financial muscle, he added.
Mahmud stressed the alliance with Jamaat was strategic rather than ideological and there would be no move towards sharia law.
“We will work to fulfill expectations of the youth in the present and also in the future as promised,” he said.
Despite their misgivings, most Gen-Z Bangladeshis told Reuters they remained hopeful about the election itself, where 300 seats are being contested.
There will be a simultaneous referendum on reforms to state institutions, including term limits for prime ministers, stronger presidential powers and greater independence for the judiciary and election authorities.
Willingness to vote was as high as 97% among those aged 18 to 35, with an almost even split between BNP and Jamaat, according to a recent poll by the Bangladesh Youth Leadership Center, a youth‑focused leadership platform.
“People are going to vote and that is enough,” said 26-year-old student activist Umama Fatema, a key figure in the 2024 uprising, adding that only a democratically elected “stable government” could steer Bangladesh.
For some, that means the BNP.
“Given that the new students’ party has shattered our hopes, I have decided to vote for BNP,” said 25-year-old Maisha Maliha, saying she believed the country needed a strong, united political party with enough people on the ground.
Others say the Islamists should have a chance. “We have seen BNP before, so Jamaat seems like a new option,” said 20-year-old Erisha Tabassum.
‘NOT READY TO GIVE UP’
Tasnim Jara, a doctor who returned from Britain to join the NCP but quit because of the Islamist alliance, is now contesting as an independent, determined to help foster what she calls a “genuinely new political culture”.
The 31-year-old spent two frantic days going door-to-door to collect the 5,000 signatures required to validate her nomination.
“The July uprising created hope that people like us, who were never part of the old political guard, could finally enter politics and change how it is practised,” said Jara.
“I do believe there is hope for a genuine political alternative in Bangladesh. But it will not emerge overnight,” she said.
Such efforts still resonate with some young voters.
H.M. Amirul Karim, a 25-year-old English literature student, said: “I continue to dream that even if not now, the desire for a new political structure will become a reality. I am not ready to give up.”
(Reporting by Ruma Paul and Tora Agarwala; Additional reporting by Zia Chowdhury: Editing by YP Rajesh and Kate Mayberry)
Mark Tully, a longtime BBC correspondent who was widely known as the “voice of India” for his reporting on the South Asian nation, has died, the broadcaster said. He was 90.Tully died Sunday at a New Delhi hospital after a brief illness.Video above: Remembering those we lost in 2026Born in India’s Kolkata city in 1935, Tully joined the BBC in 1965 and was appointed its New Delhi correspondent in 1971. He later served for more than two decades as the BBC’s bureau chief for South Asia.Tully reported on some of India’s most consequential events, including the 1971 India-Pakistan war that led to the creation of Bangladesh, the siege of the Golden Temple in 1984, the 1991 assassination of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the 1992 demolition of the Babri mosque, which triggered nationwide riots.Tully also reported from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi described Tully as “a towering voice of journalism.”“His connect with India and the people of our nation was reflected in his works. His reporting and insights have left an enduring mark on public discourse,” Modi wrote on X.Britain knighted Tully in 2002 for services to broadcasting and journalism. He also received two of India’s highest civilian honors, the Padma Shri and the Padma Bhushan.
NEW DELHI, DL —
Mark Tully, a longtime BBC correspondent who was widely known as the “voice of India” for his reporting on the South Asian nation, has died, the broadcaster said. He was 90.
Tully died Sunday at a New Delhi hospital after a brief illness.
Video above: Remembering those we lost in 2026
Born in India’s Kolkata city in 1935, Tully joined the BBC in 1965 and was appointed its New Delhi correspondent in 1971. He later served for more than two decades as the BBC’s bureau chief for South Asia.
Tully reported on some of India’s most consequential events, including the 1971 India-Pakistan war that led to the creation of Bangladesh, the siege of the Golden Temple in 1984, the 1991 assassination of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the 1992 demolition of the Babri mosque, which triggered nationwide riots.
Tully also reported from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi described Tully as “a towering voice of journalism.”
“His connect with India and the people of our nation was reflected in his works. His reporting and insights have left an enduring mark on public discourse,” Modi wrote on X.
Britain knighted Tully in 2002 for services to broadcasting and journalism. He also received two of India’s highest civilian honors, the Padma Shri and the Padma Bhushan.
ISLAMABAD, Jan 7 (Reuters) – The air force chiefs of Pakistan and Bangladesh held talks on a potential pact covering the sale of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets to Dhaka, Pakistan’s military said, as Islamabad widens its arms supply ambitions and beefs up ties with Bangladesh.
The talks in Islamabad come as Pakistan looks to capitalise on the success of its air force in the conflict with arch-foe India in May last year, the worst fighting in nearly three decades between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu and Bangladesh counterpart Hasan Mahmood Khan had detailed talks on procurement of the JF-17 Thunder, a multi-role combat aircraft jointly developed with China, the military’s press wing said.
Pakistan has also assured Bangladesh of the “fast-tracked delivery of Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, along with a complete training and long-term support ecosystem,” it added in Tuesday’s statement.
The talks signal improving ties as the South Asian nations have grown closer since massive protests in August 2024 drove then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India, shattering Dhaka’s relationship with New Delhi.
“The visit underscored the strong historical ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh and reflected a shared resolve to deepen defence cooperation and build a long-term strategic partnership,” the military said.
In the wake of Hasina’s ouster, Islamabad and Dhaka have resumed direct trade for the first time since the 1971 war that brought independence for Bangladesh, while their military officials have held several meetings.
Under an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh is set for general elections on February 12 that could lead to a significant government role for a once-banned Bangladeshi Islamist party with links to Pakistan.
The JF-17s have become the cornerstone of the Pakistani military’s weapons development program, figuring in a deal with Azerbaijan and a $4-billion weapons pact with the Libyan National Army.
On Tuesday, Pakistan’s defence minister said the success of its weapons industry could transform the country’s economic outlook.
“Our aircraft have been tested, and we are receiving so many orders that Pakistan may not need the International Monetary Fund in six months,” Khawaja Asif told broadcaster Geo News.
(Reporting by Saad Sayeed and Mubasher Bukhari; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
India has lodged a strong protest against what it has called the “deteriorating security situation” around its mission in Dhaka.
On Wednesday, India’s foreign ministry summoned Bangladeshi envoy Riaz Hamidullah to convey its concerns about the actions of some “extremist elements”, the ministry said in a statement.
“We expect the interim government to ensure the safety of [Indian] missions and posts in Bangladesh in keeping with its diplomatic obligations,” it added.
The move comes after protesters in Bangladesh began a march to the Indian high commission, seeking repatriation of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been in exile in India since student-led protests ousted her last year.
Bangladesh has not responded to India’s comments yet.
On Sunday, Bangladesh had summoned India’s envoy in Dhaka to protest against alleged “incendiary statements” made by Hasina from Indian soil “to undermine the upcoming elections”.
Bangladesh is set to hold elections on 12 February under the interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which took charge after Hasina fled to India in August 2024.
India has said it “categorically rejects the assertions” made by Bangladesh.
The relationship between the countries has become strained since Hasina fled to India following mass protests. Dhaka has repeatedly asked for her extradition so that she could stand trial for her alleged crimes.
Last month, a court in Bangladesh sentenced her to death after she was found guilty of allowing lethal force to be used against protesters, 1,400 of whom died during the unrest.
Hasina rejected the allegations, saying that it was the interim government’s way of “nullifying [her party] the Awami League as a political force” and that she was proud of her government’s record on human rights.
On Monday, leader of Bangladesh’s National Citizen Party (NCP) Hasnat Abdullah reportedly warned that Bangladesh would shelter separatist groups to isolate India’s “Seven Sisters” – the seven northeastern states – if Delhi tried to destabilise Dhaka.
He has been seen as referring to a narrow corridor in India that lies between Nepal and Bangladesh and connects the rest of India to the northeastern states, proving to be an economic and strategic challenge to Delhi.
India’s foreign ministry said it “completely rejects the false narrative sought to be created by extremist elements regarding certain recent events in Bangladesh”.
“It is unfortunate that the interim government has neither conducted a thorough investigation nor shared meaningful evidence with India regarding the incidents,” it added.
Ahead of the elections, political tensions in Bangladesh have escalated and there have been reports of several protests in the past few weeks.
Earlier this week, India closed its visa application centre in Dhaka, saying that appointments set for the second half of the day would be rescheduled.
DHAKA, Dec 11 (Reuters) – Bangladesh is set to hold a national election in February, its first since a student-led uprising toppled long-time leader Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Her Awami League, the South Asian nation’s largest party, has been barred from contesting.
Here are the main political parties and issues shaping the vote in the mainly Muslim nation of about 173 million:
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): Led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the BNP is widely seen as the frontrunner. A December poll by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute suggested it could win the most seats.
Founded in 1978 by Zia’s late husband, former President Ziaur Rahman, the party says it stands for Bangladeshi nationalism, economic liberalism and anti-corruption reforms.
Its campaign faces hurdles from Khaleda’s poor health and the absence of her son Tarique Rahman, the acting chief, who is in exile in London. Rahman has vowed to return before the vote.
Jamaat-e-Islami: The Islamist party, banned under Hasina, has re-emerged after the uprising and is expected to finish second.
Led by Shafiqur Rahman, Jamaat advocates Islamic governance under sharia law but seeks to broaden its appeal beyond its conservative base.
It promises a “mafia-free society” and anti-corruption measures. Jamaat previously governed in coalition with the BNP between 2001 and 2006.
National Citizen Party (NCP): Formed by student leaders after the uprising, the NCP has struggled to convert street power into electoral strength due to weak organisation and limited funds. Polls show it trailing far behind BNP and Jamaat.
Its 24-point manifesto calls for a new constitution, judicial reform, free media, universal healthcare and education, and climate resilience. It is led by 27-year-old Nahid Islam, a prominent face in the anti-government protests.
(Reporting by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
The U.S. capital is tiny compared to many of the world’s largest cities, a new report on urbanization around the globe shows.
Tokyo has lost its status as the world’s largest city, with another sprawling Asian capital, the Indonesian metropolis of Jakarta, knocking it off the top spot, according to a report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
According to the U.N. report, nine of the 10 most populous cities in the world are in Asia.
Jakarta, with 41.9 million residents, is the largest. Dhaka, Bangladesh, follows with almost 36.5 million people. The Japanese capital, Tokyo, has fallen from the top spot to third, with 33.4 million people. The Indian capital, New Delhi, is fourth with just over 30.2 million people.
Urban U.S.
For the U.S., these findings offer important insights into future urbanization trends, infrastructure challenges and global economic shifts.
As the rate of population growth in Asian cities outpaces that in the U.S., cities in the United States and the rest of the Americas are falling down the ranking of the world’s largest.
The figures are also a reminder of just how small Washington, D.C., is in comparison with Asian metropolises.
The U.N. measures population within an urbanized area, often beyond a city’s administrative limits. It puts the population of Washington, D.C., at 3.27 million.
The U.S. Census Bureau, basing its calculation on a smaller city area excluding urban sprawl, says there are just over 702,000 people in the capital.
The biggest U.S. city is New York with 13.9 million people in 2025, according to the U.N. data, making it the 22nd biggest city in the world—down from 15th place in 2000.
Los Angeles has a population of 12.7 million, according to the U.N. calculations, making it the world’s 27th largest city—down from 17th in 2000.
Sao Paulo, Brazil, is the biggest city in the Americas with a population of 18.9 million in 2025, making it the world’s 13th biggest city—down from 10th in 2000, according to the U.N. data.
Mexico City is the second-biggest city in the Americas with 17.7 million people in 2025, making it the world’s 15th biggest city—down from the 8th largest in 2000, according to the U.N. data.
Buenos Aires, Argentina, ranks third in the Americas for population and 21st in the world with 14.2 million people, one spot ahead of New York. Its position is down from 16th in 2000.
Chicago is the U.S.’s third-biggest city with 2.723 million people, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2024. Then comes Houston (2.39 million), Phoenix (1.67 million), Philadelphia (1.57 million), San Antonio (1.52 million), San Diego (1.4 million), Dallas (1.32 million) and Jacksonville (1 million).
The other mega cities in the world’s top 10, according to U.N. data, are China’s Shanghai (29.5 million) and Guangzhou (27.5 million); Cairo, Egypt’s capital and the only non-Asian city in the top 10, with 25.5 million; the Philippine capital, Manila (24.7 million); India’s Kolkata (22.5 million); and the South Korean capital, Seoul (22.4 million).
Tokyo has lost its status as the world’s largest city, with another sprawling Asian metropolis, Indonesia’s vast capital, knocking it off the top spot.
Dhaka, Bangladesh, follows close behind with almost 40 million, while Tokyo’s population stands at 33 million, putting it in third place.
Cairo remains the only non-Asian city among the top 10.
According to the report, released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, urbanization has reshaped the global population landscape.
Cities now house 45 percent of the world’s 8.2 billion people, up from just 20 percent in 1950.
The study found a quadrupling in the number of megacities—urban areas with 10 million or more inhabitants—from eight in 1975 to 33 in 2025, with 19 of those in Asia.
The report points to significant growth for cities like Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Hajipur (India), and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), all projected to surpass the 10 million threshold by 2050, when the number of megacities worldwide is expected to reach 37.
While megacities draw most of the attention, small and medium-sized cities—defined as those with under 1 million residents—continue to outnumber and outpace megacities in population and growth, especially in Africa and Asia.
Of the 12,000 cities analyzed, 96 percent have fewer than 1 million inhabitants.
What People Are Saying
United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua said: “Urbanization is a defining force of our time. When managed inclusively and strategically, it can unlock transformative pathways for climate action, economic growth, and social equity.” He added, “To achieve balanced territorial development, countries must adopt integrated national policies that align housing, land use, mobility, and public services across urban and rural areas.”
What Happens Next
Globally, the number of cities is projected to exceed 15,000 by 2050, with most having populations below 250,000.
While rural communities continue to shrink except in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, small and medium-sized cities are expected to drive the next wave of global urbanization, spurring both opportunities and challenges in infrastructure, housing, and climate adaptation.
A special tribunal sentenced Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death on charges of crimes against humanity involving last year’s mass uprising that killed hundreds of people and ended her 15-year rule.
The tribunal also sentenced former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan to death in the case while a third suspect — a former police chief — was sentenced to five years in prison as he became a state witness against Hasina and pleaded guilty.
Hasina and Khan faced the charges of crimes against humanity over the killing of hundreds of people during a student-led uprising in July and August of 2024. The United Nations in a February report said up to 1,400 may have been killed in the violence, while the country’s health adviser under the interim government said more than 800 people were killed and about 14,000 were injured.
The deliberation of the verdict from the tribunal in the capital, Dhaka, was broadcast live on Monday.
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ruled for 15 years
INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP via Getty Images
The interim government beefed up security ahead of the verdict, with paramilitary border guards and police deployed in Dhaka and many other parts of the country. CBS News’ British partner network BBC News said security forces had deployed tear gas amid unrest following the announcement of the sentencing on the streets of Dhaka on Monday.
Hasina’s Awami League party has called for a nationwide shutdown to protest the verdict. Hasina and Khan, who have been in exile in India, were tried in absentia.
Both Hasina and her party have called the tribunal a “kangaroo court” and denounced the appointment of a lawyer by the state to represent her.
The tribunal last week had fixed Monday for delivering the verdict as reports of explosions of crude bombs and arson led to the disruption of classes and transportation across the country after the “lockdown” called for by Hasina’s party.
Before the tribunal’s ruling Monday, the former ruling party called for the shutdown again, with Hasina in an audio message urging her supporters not to be “nervous” about the verdict.
The verdict came after local media reported new explosions of crude bombs in Dhaka, including one in front of the house of an adviser, equivalent to a Cabinet minister, on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Dhaka’s police chief Sheikh Mohammad Sazzat Ali issued a “shoot-on-sight” order if anyone attempts to torch vehicles or hurl crude bombs. The directive came as nearly 50 arson attacks, mostly targeting vehicles, and dozens of explosions of crude bombs have been reported nationwide over the past week. Two people were killed in the arson attacks, local media reported.
Authorities at the Supreme Court, in a letter to army headquarters on Sunday, requested the deployment of soldiers around the tribunal premises ahead of the verdict.
Protesters block the Dhanmondi 2 area during an anti-government protest in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Aug. 4, 2024.
Getty
Hasina was ousted on Aug. 5 last year and fled to India. Bangladeshi Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as the head of an interim government three days after her fall. Yunus vowed to punish Hasina and banned the activities of her Awami League party.
Yunus said his interim government would hold the next elections in February, and that Hasina’s party would not get a chance to contest the race.
Dhaka-based human rights activist Shireen Huq, who works with people injured during the unrest, told the BBC on Monday that the “harsh punishment” for Hasina would offer little solace for the families of people killed and maimed during last summer’s crackdown on protesters.
“They will never be able to forgive her,” she told the BBC, adding that many people’s anger at Hasina’s political party also had “not subsided.”
“Neither she nor the party has apologized or shown any remorse for the killings of hundreds of people,” Huq said. “It makes it difficult for the party to be accepted by a majority of people in this country.”
A special court in Bangladesh sentenced the country’s former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, to death on Monday for her role in the killing of at least 1,400 protesters who participated in nationwide demonstrations last year that ultimately led to her ouster.
The International Crimes Tribunal ruled that Hasina and several of her top officials were guilty of crimes against humanity, including inciting and abetting organized violence against peaceful student protesters in July and August 2024, and conspiring in the killing of civilians, among other charges.
DHAKA (Reuters) -Bangladesh will hold a national referendum on implementing its ‘July Charter’ for state reform, drafted after last year’s deadly student-led uprising, Muhammad Yunus, the head of the country’s interim government, said on Thursday.
He also reiterated that parliamentary elections will be held in the first half of February and that they would be free and fair.
The interim government approved the July National Charter (Constitution Reform) Implementation Order 2025 on Thursday and it will be implemented depending on the outcome of the referendum.
“We have decided that the referendum will be held on the same day as the national parliamentary election — meaning, in the first half of February,” Nobel laureate Yunus said in a televised address to the nation.
“This will not hinder the reform process. Rather, it will make the election more festive and cost-efficient,” he said.
The July Charter seeks to reshape the country’s politics and institutions and give constitutional recognition to the 2024 uprising that forced Sheikh Hasina, a long-time prime minister, to flee to India.
It includes increased representation of women, limiting the prime minister’s term, strengthening presidential powers, expanding fundamental rights and ensuring judicial independence.
A majority of political parties had signed the charter in October but the National Citizens Party, formed by the leaders of last year’s movement and four left-leaning parties, had boycotted it.
The NCP said it stayed away due to the lack of a legal framework or binding guarantee for implementing the commitments made in the charter.
Supporters see the charter as a foundation for institutional reform. Critics say its impact could be largely symbolic without a legal framework or parliamentary consensus.
“I hope political parties will accept our decision in the greater interest of the nation,” Yunus said. “The country will move toward a festive national election and step into a ‘New Bangladesh’.”
(Reporting by Ruma Paul and Krishna Das; Editing by YP Rajesh)
Rivalries between major Bangladeshi political parties have simmered ahead of elections scheduled in February 2026. After supporters of Bangladesh’s two main parties brawled at a mosque in October, old photos circulated online with a false claim they showed the aftermath of the fight. One of the pictures was in fact taken in Afghanistan, while the rest show the aftermath of a gas explosion at a mosque in Bangladesh in 2020.
“This is not a picture of Gaza in Palestine! A picture of BNP and Jamaat’s religious brothers and their practice at a mosque in Noakhali Sadar Upazila, representing their idea of a new Bangladesh,” reads the Bengali-language caption of a Facebook post shared on October 20, 2025, referring to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami party.
It features three photos showing damage inside a mosque.
Screenshot of the false Facebook post captured on November 9, 2025, with a red X added by AFP
The false claim surfaced after at least 50 people were injured in a fight between supporters of the two parties at a mosque in the southern district of Noakhali on the previous day, with each side blaming the other for starting the brawl, according to local outlet the Daily Star (archived link).
Rivalries have fuelled fears of street clashes ahead of general elections in February 2026, with the parties disagreeing on multiple issues, including how to implement proposals on a two-term limit for prime ministers, and the expansion of presidential powers, among others (archived link).
The BNP is seen as the election frontrunner in the upcoming polls, while Jamaat has gained significant momentum since a ban on the party imposed by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was lifted (archived link).
The other key group is the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student leaders who spearheaded the uprising last year that ousted Hasina.
The pictures were also shared in posts with similar claims that surfaced elsewhere on Facebook, but reverse image searches on Google showed they predate the incident by years.
The first photo was published in a report by The Associated Press about a bombing on October 8, 2021 inside a mosque at the northern city of Kunduz in Afghanistan (archived link).
Another picture from Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency — which was also distributed by AFP — shows the same scene from a different angle.
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared photo (left) and the AP photo (right)
The Daily Star published the second photo on September 8, 2020 in an article about a gas explosion at a mosque at Narayanganj, an east-central district in Bangladesh close to the capital Dhaka (archived link).
The report said the gas company blamed the September 4, 2020 accident — which killed at least 31 people — on the mosque’s failure to alert authorities after its staff detected a smell of gas leakage a few days prior (archived link).
AFP published a photo showing the same scene on September 5.
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared photo (left) and the Daily Star photo (right)
The third photo was found in a report by Bangladeshi newspaper The Business Standard about the same explosion on September 17, 2020 (archived link).
The Daily Star published a similar picture from another angle on September 5, 2020 (archived link).
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared photo (left) and the Business Standard photo (right)
AFP has previously debunked other misrepresented content related to Bangladesh.
Clashes between security forces and Bangladesh’s indigenous community protesting the alleged rape of a girl left three people dead in late September. However, a video circulating in Burmese social media posts does not show soldiers shooting at demonstrators in the South Asian country’s southeastern region bordering Myanmar — the footage was in fact taken in the capital Dhaka during mass unrest that ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.
“Now Bangladesh army shot the public in Guimara, Chittagong, Bangladesh. The video of Bangladesh army opened fire on protesters emerges,” reads the Burmese-language caption to a video shared on Facebook on September 29.
Guimara is an area in Bangladesh’s Khagrachari district, located in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region bordering Myanmar.
The 30-second footage shows soldiers lying in a row on the ground with guns pointed at people in the distance, while gunshots can also be heard.
Screenshot taken on October 6, 2025 of the false post with an X marked by AFP
The video was repeatedly shared on Facebook by users in neighbouring Myanmar with similar claims after three people were killed during clashes between security forces and protesters in Khagrachari district (archived link).
The unrest was triggered by the alleged rape of a schoolgirl in an area that has long been a flashpoint between Indigenous communities and Bengali-speakers, with clashes breaking out over land and resources.
However, the video is old and unrelated to the recent violence.
Reverse image searches and keyword searches on Google found the same clip in a report by Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, uploaded to YouTube on July 24, 2024 (archived link). The circulating clip corresponds to the YouTube video’s 30-second mark.
The title reads, “Bangladesh curfews, internet blackout batter economy amid quota protests”.
Screenshot comparison of the video from the false post (L) to the Al Jazeera video
Bangladesh’s student-led movement began in July 2024, with hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters clashing with security forces in the worst unrest of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule (archived link).
Up to 1,400 people were killed between July and August 2024, according to the United Nations (archived link).
Further reverse image searches found a similar photo of the row of soldiers published on British photo agency Alamy, dated July 20, 2024 with a caption that states it was taken in the capital Dhaka (archived link).
The shops and buildings seen in both the Al Jazeera video and the photo on Alamy match Google Street View imagery of a Dhaka neighbourhood, 180 kilometres (112 miles) from Khagrachari (archived link).
Screenshot comparison of the Al Jazeera video (L) and the Google Maps’ Street View imagery, with matching features highlighted by AFP
Three people were shot dead after protests erupted in Bangladesh’s southeast border region with India over the alleged rape of a schoolgirl, but two videos showing protests scenes circulating on social media are not from the south Asian country. The clips were in fact taken during earlier demonstrations in Nepal and Indonesia.
“Attacking the army and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) in violation of Section 144 and looting weapons,” reads the Bengali-language caption to a 4-second clip shared on Facebook on September 28, 2025.
It shows people filming and following a man holding a weapon along a street.
The same clip was shared alongside similar claims elsewhere on Facebook after protests by indigenous communities erupted in Bangladesh’s southeastern Khagrachari district over the alleged rape of a schoolgirl (archived link).
Three men were shot dead and dozens injured in the unrest, which prompted authorities to impose a law banning “unlawful assembly” for eight days until October 5 (archived link).
Screenshot of the false post, taken October 2, 2025
A second clip showing another chaotic nighttime protest scene, with explosions and police cars driving down a crowded street, also surfaced on September 27 on Facebook. The post claimed it depicted the unrest in Khagrachari.
Screenshot of the false post, taken October 2, 2025
The region has long been a flashpoint between Indigenous communities and Bengali-speakers, with clashes breaking out over land and resources.
Bangladesh’s interior ministry chief claimed weapons from “outside the country” were fuelling the violence, while the army’s public relations wing in a statement accused the the United People’s Democratic Front (UPDF), a holdout rebel faction, of instigating the violence and firing hundreds of shots (archived link).
On October 1, local media reported that no evidence of rape was found by a government medical board examination of the schoolgirl, but an indigenous group said the medical report was “fabricated” (archived link).
However, none of the circulating clips were taken in Bangladesh, they instead show scenes from protests in Nepal and Indonesia.
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared clip (left) and the YouTube video (right)
The video’s caption links the footage to Nepal’s “Gen Z” protests, which began with demonstrations against a social media ban on September 8 and erupted into wider discontent over corruption and ultimately ousted the Himalayan country’s government (archived link).
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared video (left) and Google Street View imagery of Kathmandu (right), with corresponding features highlighted by AFP
The second falsely shared video corresponds to footage shared in a compilation on Instagram on August 30, 2025 (archived link).
The Indonesian-language caption states the footage shows a protest in Solo, a city in central Java officially known as Surakarta, on August 29, 2025.
Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared clip (left) and the Instagram video (right)
Further keyword and reverse image search found another YouTube video posted on August 29 captioned “chaos at Solo protest”, showing the same incident from a different angle (archived link).
Protests broke out across Indonesia in late-August, sparked by discontent over economic inequality and lavish perks for lawmakers and intensified by the killing of a young delivery driver by a paramilitary police unit (archived link). At least 10 people were killed, and hundreds injured.
(Reuters) -Hunger is rising in Myanmar, the impoverished Southeast Asian country that has been ravaged by conflict since a 2021 military coup ousted an elected civilian government.
Some 3.6 million people are displaced across the war-torn nation, according to the United Nations, and a lack of funding has left millions of vulnerable people without life-saving humanitarian support.
Myanmar is one of the world’s most underfunded aid operations, with only 12% of required funds received, the U.N. says.
WHAT IS THE HUNGER SITUATION NATIONWIDE?
More than 16 million people across Myanmar, about a third of the population, are acutely food insecure, meaning that their lack of food threatens lives and livelihoods, according to the World Food Programme.
They are the fifth-largest group needing aid anywhere in the world, making Myanmar “a hunger hotspot of very high concern,” the agency said.
More than 540,000 children across the country are expected to suffer this year from acute malnutrition – life-threatening wasting that can have severe and lifelong effects – a 26% increase from last year, WFP said.
One in three children under the age of five is already suffering from stunted growth, according to WFP.
HOW BAD IS IT IN RAKHINE?
The western coastal state of Rakhine, where conflict is raging, has been hit particularly hard by the food crisis, with restrictions on aid delivery and the movement of people.
In central Rakhine, the WFP estimates that 57% of families cannot afford basic food, up from 33% in December 2024, while the situation in the hard-to-reach north is probably even worse, it says.
Food prices are as much as four times higher than before the conflict, while many markets are empty and people are unable to travel freely or find jobs to support themselves, according to a WFP official.
The crisis is driving more Rohingya families from Rakhine into Bangladesh, where more than 1 million members of the Muslim minority group already live in crowded refugee camps after a brutal Myanmar military crackdown in 2017 triggered a mass exodus.
Many newly arrived Rohingya refugees are suffering from acute malnutrition, especially children and pregnant and lactating women, the International Rescue Committee says.
Hospital admissions for severe wasting increased by 12% between January and June this year compared to the same period in 2024, and UNICEF treated 1,028 severely wasted children among new arrivals between October 2024 and June 2025, it said.
(Writing by Devjyot Ghoshal; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
On the morning of September 6th, a black S.U.V. carrying a provincial minister from Nepal’s ruling party ran over an eleven-year-old girl, Usha Magar Sunuwar, outside her school in the city of Lalitpur. Rather than stop to help the injured victim, the occupants of the vehicle sped away. Many of the powerful in Nepal, like their brethren across South Asia, believe themselves to be exempt from accountability. And Sunuwar, who miraculously survived, became, in the eyes of the public, another casualty of the governing élite’s contempt for ordinary Nepalis. When K. P. Sharma Oli, the country’s seventy-three-year-old Prime Minister, was questioned by the press about the incident, he shrugged it off as a “normal accident.” Oli, a Communist who began his political career as a tribune of the oppressed, seemed unaware of the anger that had accumulated around him.
The previous week, Oli’s government had banned twenty-six social-media and messaging platforms—including Facebook and X—for failing to comply with elaborate regulations introduced, as a multitude of Nepalis saw it, to muzzle people’s speech. Almost half of Nepal’s population uses some form of social media, which accounts for nearly eighty per cent of the country’s internet traffic. Among the users of these platforms are politicians’ children, who appear to lead and post photos of opulent lives: designer handbags, luxury holidays, lavish parties. Wealth “without visible function,” Hannah Arendt once warned, breeds more resentment than do oppression or exploitation “because nobody can understand why it should be tolerated.”
Since August, TikTok and Instagram in Nepal had been inundated with sharply cut videos that juxtaposed these excesses with the hardships suffered by most in a country from which, every day, some two thousand men and women leave to look for livelihoods elsewhere. Of those who stay, more than eighty per cent work in the informal sector—as domestic servants, street hawkers, porters, cleaners. Last year, in the formal sector, youth unemployment stood at 20.8 per cent. This helps to explain, perhaps, why young Nepalis are overrepresented among the foreign mercenaries recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine; the laborers who built the infrastructure for Qatar to host the FIFA World Cup, dying at a rate of one every two days while toiling in extreme heat; and seasonal migrant workers in India.
The remittances of Nepalis abroad, constituting a third of the country’s G.D.P., are indispensable to Nepal’s survival. The social-media ban cut off many of these expatriates from their families. Implemented in the run-up to a major festival, it also disrupted small businesses that rely on online channels to market their products. An immediate public backlash ensued. On September 8th, cities across the country were deluged with angry young protesters demanding a revocation of the ban. They called themselves “Gen Z”—a label that somewhat obscures the fact that one of the protests’ organizers, Sudan Gurung, a philanthropist who leads the non-governmental organization Hami Nepal, is a thirty-six-year-old millennial. At least nineteen people were killed, most of them in Kathmandu, the capital, when demonstrators clashed with security forces, who responded by firing live rounds of ammunition. The government was sufficiently rattled to rescind the ban the next morning. The marches, however, intensified. By the evening, Oli had resigned and vanished.
The protesters had by then mutated into a mob. And, as the state receded, the mob set fire to the symbols of state power in Kathmandu: Singha Durbar, Nepal’s administrative headquarters; the health ministry; the Parliament building; the Supreme Court; the Presidential palace; and the Prime Minister’s residence. Private properties, from the offices of the governing Communist Party to the glass-and-steel tower housing the Kathmandu Hilton, were also set ablaze. Outsiders called this mayhem a revolution. And those participating in it dispensed revolutionary justice to members of the ancien régime unlucky enough to be caught. Sher Bahadur Deuba—who had served five terms as Nepal’s Prime Minister, most recently in 2022—and his wife, Arzu Rana, the foreign minister in Oli’s cabinet, were beaten savagely in their home. Rajyalaxmi Chitrakar, the wife of another former Prime Minister, was burned to death inside her residence.
By September 10th, Nepal had descended into a state of lawlessness, a country without a government or authority. The only national institution that survived—and that possessed the capability to restore order—was the Army, which, sheltering the civilian leadership, opened talks with representatives of the protest movement. Events then moved at dizzying speed. Within forty-eight hours, Nepal’s President had been forced to appoint an interim Prime Minister, dissolve the country’s elected Parliament, and announce new elections. As search teams set about recovering bodies from the charred government buildings, the death toll rose to more than seventy, and the number of injured exceeded two thousand.
Nepal is the third South Asian country in the past four years to stage a violent overthrow of its government. In 2022, anger over soaring prices in Sri Lanka erupted into mass protests that swept the Rajapaksa dynasty from power. Last August, the long reign of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s autocratic Prime Minister, was brought to a sudden end after bloody street rallies culminated in the sacking of her residence.
One can scarcely draw solace from the trajectories of those recent revolts. In Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa clan remains a force, bruised but far from vanquished. The movement that defenestrated President Gotabaya Rajapaksa ended with the appointment of his handpicked successor: Ranil Wickremesinghe, a consummate insider who had already served four terms as Prime Minister. Wickremesinghe set loose the armed forces on the protests, which fizzled out rapidly, and stabilized the economy by introducing painful austerity measures backed by the International Monetary Fund. He was defeated in last year’s Presidential elections by Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a left-wing candidate who had pledged to soften the I.M.F. deal. A year into his Presidency, however, Dissanayake has largely maintained the program. Meanwhile, the interethnic hostilities that led to the horrors of Sri Lanka’s civil war—which ended, in 2009, with the brutal defeat of the island’s Tamil minority—persist under his watch.
Rakhine State stands at a pivotal moment as the Arakan Army (AA) edges closer to seizing control of Myanmar’s strategic western frontier region, a shift in power that could redefine both the country’s civil war and regional geopolitics.
While Myanmar’s military government has clawed back territory elsewhere in the country, the AA now controls 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine, which is situated on the Bay of Bengal in the country’s west and shares a border with Bangladesh.
Flush from victories against Myanmar’s military rulers, the rebel group has pledged to capture the remainder of Rakhine State, including the capital Sittwe, as well as a key Indian port project, and Kyaukphyu, home to oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Analysts say the window is open for a decisive offensive by the rebel group.
But the AA’s fight against Myanmar’s military government for self-determination unfolds amid a deepening humanitarian crisis and growing reports of serious abuses by the armed group against Muslim-majority Rohingya in Rakhine.
The Myanmar military’s blockade of supplies to Rakhine – historically known as Arakan – has worsened a crisis in which the United Nations estimates more than two million people face the risk of starvation. Earlier this month, the World Food Programme warned that 57 percent of families in central Rakhine cannot meet basic food needs – up from 33 percent in December.
Thousands of civilians are hemmed in the encircled Sittwe, which is now accessible only by sea and air.
Residents describe skyrocketing prices – pork that once cost $2 now exceeds $13. Local media have reported on desperate people taking their own lives, families turning to begging, sex work increasing, and daytime thefts as law and order collapses.
One resident who recently left by plane told of the growing danger from crime in Sittwe.
“They’re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight. They even take the furniture,” he said.
Inside Sittwe, a source who asked for anonymity told Al Jazeera that the Arakan Liberation Army, an armed group linked to the military, monitors conversations among local people while troops raid homes and check residents for tattoos as signs of AA support.
“The situation is unpredictable,” the source said.
“We can’t guess what will happen next.”
Rakhine State, Myanmar map
A representative of the United League of Arakan (ULA), the AA’s political wing, described Sittwe as “a stark example” of military rule, saying the regime’s leaders have “treated Arakan as occupied territory” for decades.
Rising civilian toll
As the AA advances across Rakhine State, the military government has turned to air strikes – a tactic used nationwide since the generals seized power in 2021.
In Rakhine, the ULA says air raids killed 402 civilians between late 2023 and mid-2025, including 96 children. Another 26 civilians died this year from artillery, landmines or extrajudicial killings, it said.
Air strikes on civilians “cannot produce tangible military outcomes”, a ULA representative said, describing such tactics as “terrorism” in a country where more than 80,000 people are estimated to have been killed in fighting since the 2021 coup.
Amid the grinding conflict, both the AA and Myanmar’s military have also implemented conscription to bolster their forces.
The AA has drafted men aged 18 to 45 and women aged 18 to 25 since May, calling its campaign a “war of national liberation”, while the military has added an estimated 70,000 men to its ranks over its 16-month military draft drive.
Rakhine has also been scarred by ethnic violence, most brutally during the military’s 2017 crackdown that drove more than 730,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh – atrocities from that time which are now before the International Court of Justice in a case of suspected genocide.
More than a million Rohingya remain in refugee camps along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, with the UN reporting 150,000 new arrivals over the past 18 months.
Reports accuse the AA of abuses against Rohingya civilians that remain in Rakhine, including an alleged massacre of 600 people last year – allegations the AA denies, claiming images of human remains were actually government soldiers killed in battle.
According to the rebels’ political wing, the ULA, “Muslim residents” in its areas of control in Rakhine “are experiencing better lives compared to any other period in recent history”.
The ULA, like the military government, avoids the term “Rohingya” in an attempt to imply the community is not indigenous to Rakhine.
To further confuse an already complex situation, the military has armed members of the Rohingya community to fight the AA, a dramatic reversal after decades of persecution of their communities by Myanmar’s armed forces.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank also warns that Rohingya armed groups are using religious language to mobilise refugees in the camps in Bangladesh against the AA.
But “a Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is unlikely to succeed”, the ICG reports, adding that it could also heighten anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar and damage prospects for the repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh to homes they fled inside Rakhine.
Tensions are also simmering with Bangladesh, which wants the AA – in control of the entire border region between Myanmar and Bangladesh – to accept refugees back into areas under its authority.
Dhaka is also reportedly backing armed Rohingya groups to pressure Arakan forces, while the AA is wary that Bangladesh could support a breakaway zone in Rakhine, threatening its territorial ambitions for the state.
Battle for Chinese-built port
South of Sittwe, a decisive fight looms for Kyaukphyu, the coastal hub linking Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province through twin oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port that is part of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project.
Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst with defence publication Janes, predicts the AA could launch a monsoon offensive between September and October, using cloudy skies as cover against aerial assaults by the military’s warplanes and which would boost its chances of capturing Kyaukphyu.
Davis said munition stocks seized by the AA in 2024 could dwindle by 2026, while Chinese pressure may limit arms supplies used by the rebels from entering northern Myanmar – factors that add urgency to the AA pressing its attacks now.
He estimated 3,000 government troops are defending Kyaukphyu, backed by jets, drones and naval firepower.
With at least 40,000 fighters after its conscription drive – and now becoming Myanmar’s largest ethnic army – the AA could likely commit 10,000 troops to the assault on Kyaukphyu, Davis said.
This photo taken from a boat on October 2, 2019, shows vessels docked at the port of a Chinese-owned oil refinery plant on Made Island off Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State, Myanmar [Ye Aung Thu/AFP]
Based on its track record, Davis believes the AA has a “significant chance” of seizing the port, in what could become “one of the most consequential and costliest campaigns” of the civil war.
About 50 Chinese security personnel remain in Kyaukphyu, according to a Chinese industry source cited by Davis, who believes Beijing has accepted the AA might capture the facility – as long as its assets stay protected.
But Beijing has also intensified its backing of Myanmar’s military rulers in recent months.
The ULA representative said Kyaukphyu is a “sensitive area” for the AA, where it uses “the least amount of force necessary” and maintains a “firm policy of protecting foreign investments and personnel from all countries”.
The AA would “strive to pursue all possible means to foster positive relations with China”, the representative added.
Widening War
India, too, has stakes in Rakhine through the Kaladan transport project, which aims to connect India’s remote northeast regions to the Bay of Bengal via the India-built Sittwe port and river routes running through AA-controlled territory.
That corridor would allow India to bypass Bangladesh and create an alternative trade route for India with Myanmar.
Analysts say taking control of the port, road and river network could allow the AA to tax Indian trade, boosting its finances while also undermining the Myanmar military’s ties with New Delhi.
If the AA does succeed in capturing Rakhine’s coastal ports, the armed group could feasibly control transport and trade gateways vital to both China and India, which would create leverage that no other armed participant in the Myanmar civil war holds.
That could elevate the AA-backed Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government as a regional powerbroker, Davis said.
The Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar says the AA is also deployed beyond Rakhine and now leads the country’s most extensive alliance of armed groups.
“No other ethnic armed group has woven such a far-reaching web of influence among the country’s next generation of fighters,” the institute wrote.
But with the military regaining lost ground in other regions of the country while preparing to hold elections in December – already widely dismissed as a sham – there is a prospect the AA could one day agree to a ceasefire with the military government or continue to fight and potentially be strong enough to face the military alone.
Commenting on such a scenario, the ULA representative called for vigilance against the military’s traditional “divide and rule” strategy.
“War often involves advances and retreats,” said the representative. “This time, we are confident that the resistance forces can achieve meaningful change in the country.”
What do India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the other teams need to do in order to seal a spot? Al Jazeera breaks it down.
The race for the semifinals at the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup is heating up as all 10 participant nations enter the second half of their group-stage matches and look to climb up the points table.
After their huge win over Sri Lanka on Wednesday, India leapt up from fourth to second spot in Group A and removed the Asian champions from the reckoning.
Sri Lanka are already out of semifinal contention; their final group game against New Zealand on Saturday is inconsequential.
In Group B, debutants Scotland also made an early exit after losing all three games. On Sunday, they will attempt to finish the tournament on a high with an upset of their much higher-ranked British rivals, England.
Which teams, then, can still qualify for the semifinals and what do they need to do in order to get there?
Here’s Al Jazeera’s breakdown of the permutations:
Which teams can qualify for the Women’s T20 World Cup semifinals?
Group A:
Australia
India
New Zealand
Pakistan
Group B:
England
South Africa
West Indies
Bangladesh
Two falcons 🦅 Two camels 🐫 10 captains 😎 ONE trophy 🏆
Beat both Pakistan and India in their remaining two group games to finish on top of the table with eight points.
In case of a loss against Pakistan, Australia would need to beat India and hope New Zealand beat Pakistan and Sri Lanka beat New Zealand. This would result in six points for Australia and India, and four each for New Zealand and Pakistan.
If Australia beat Pakistan but lose to India, they would want New Zealand to lose against both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, resulting in six points for Australia and India and four each for Pakistan and New Zealand.
Should they lose both games, Australia will find themselves in a tricky situation – but their high net run rate may still save them. They will hope for two losses for New Zealand against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Australia will still need their net run rate to be higher than Pakistan’s in order to secure the second qualifying spot from Group A.
How can India qualify for the semifinals?
A win over Australia in their final group game and one loss each for New Zealand and Pakistan will ensure India’s qualification on points.
If India lose to Australia, they would require Australia to record a huge win over Pakistan – in order to eliminate Fatima Sana’s team on net run rate – and New Zealand to lose at least one of their games. Group A would then have Australia on top and India in second spot on net run rate.
Should India lose to Australia but New Zealand win both their matches, the Australasian teams will qualify for the semis with at least six points each – and Harmanpreet Kaur’s team will be eliminated.
If India lose to Australia but New Zealand lose to Pakistan, Australia will qualify as table toppers and leave the other three teams to fight it out on net run rate.
Two wins in their last two matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan will seal the deal for the White Ferns with six points.
Failing to win both games will lead to New Zealand’s removal on two points.
If New Zealand win one of their two games, they will hope their geographical neighbour Australia will hand big defeats to both India and Pakistan and help them finish second on a higher net run rate.
How can Pakistan qualify for the semifinals?
In ideal circumstances, Pakistan need to pull off miraculous wins over both New Zealand and Australia and rely on India to defeat Australia. This improbable scenario would send India and Pakistan into the semifinals with six points each.
In a slightly more realistic situation, if Pakistan beat New Zealand but lose to Australia, they would need Australia to beat India with a huge margin and Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand in a similar manner. This would result in four points for both Pakistan and India and the team with the higher net run rate will qualify.
If Pakistan lose both their games, they will end yet another World Cup campaign at the group stage. Pakistan have never qualified for the semifinals of a World Cup [File: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP]
How can England qualify for the semifinals?
England need two wins in their two games to finish on eight points and qualify as table toppers.
One win and one loss will see them finish on six points and enter a net run rate battle against South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.
Should England lose to both Scotland and West Indies, they can still qualify if their net run rate is higher than the other three teams.
How can South Africa qualify for the semifinals?
South Africa need to beat Bangladesh comprehensively in order to maintain their top position with both points and net run rate.
Should South Africa lose, they will need the West Indies to lose both their games. In this scenario, their healthy net run rate after the first three games could still see the Proteas women enter the semifinals in the second spot ahead of both the West Indies and Bangladesh.
How can the West Indies qualify for the semifinals?
The West Indies need two wins in their last two matches and hope that South Africa lose to Bangladesh or England lose both of their games.
If the West Indies win one game and England win both of theirs, the 2016 champions will hope that South Africa lose to Bangladesh by a big margin. Hayley Matthews’s team will then qualify ahead of South Africa on net run rate.
Two losses will result in a group-stage exit for West Indies.
The hosts, who won their first-ever T20 World Cup match in the tournament opener on October 3, will pull off a near-miracle if they beat both 2016 champions West Indies and 2023 runners-up South Africa and end up on six points. It will be enough to see them through to the knockouts.
In the other instance, Bangladesh will hope they can beat at least one of West Indies or South Africa with a big margin and enter the battle for net run rate.
Losing both of their games will send Nigar Sultana’s team crashing out of the tournament.
