BAKU, Nov 29 (Reuters) – Police in Azerbaijan conducted a search on Saturday at the home of Ali Karimli, the leader of one of the country’s main opposition parties, amid a widening probe into a suspected coup attempt to oust President Ilham Aliyev.
An Azerbaijani government source told Reuters the move on Karimli, who has led the Azerbaijani Popular Front Party (APFP) since 2000, was linked to an ongoing criminal case against Ramiz Mehdiyev, a longtime ally of former President Heydar Aliyev, who led Azerbaijan until shortly before his death in 2003.
Two APFP members, Faiq Amirli and Mammad Ibrahim, were detained on Saturday, Karimli’s deputy, Seymour Hazi, told Reuters. Reuters was unable to immediately contact lawyers for the three men.
Azerbaijan’s State Security Service has not commented on the search.
The government source said the authorities believed Karimli was being financed by Mehdiyev, who joined the government of Heydar Aliyev as head of the presidential administration during the first years of its tenure in 1994.
Ilham Aliyev, Heydar’s son, dismissed Mehdiyev in 2019 in what was viewed at the time as a move intended to force out officials appointed during his father’s tenure.
Last month a Baku court placed Mehdiyev, 87, under four months of house arrest after charging him with crimes including attempts to seize power.
Karimli, the APFP leader, has been arrested numerous times in connection with organising protests in Azerbaijan, an oil- and gas-rich nation that has come under criticism by Western governments over its human rights record.
(Reporting by Nailia Bagirova; Writing by Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Toby Chopra)
NICOSIA (Reuters) -A court in Cyprus on Friday sentenced an Azeri man to 6-1/2 years in jail on charges of conspiracy, his lawyer said, after prosecutors earlier dropped charges he planned terrorist attacks against Israelis living on the island.
Cyprus’s Criminal Court imposed the sentence on Orkan Asadov, an Azeri, who has been in custody since late 2021. At the time of his arrest Israel accused Iran of recruiting Asadov as a “hit man” to target Israeli businesspeople on the island.
Iran had rejected those charges at the time as baseless. The charge sheet against the defendant has never mentioned an Iranian link.
The defendant was found guilty of conspiracy to commit a crime and weapons possession, his lawyer Kostis Efstathiou told Reuters, confirming a report which first appeared in the Phileleftheros newspaper.
During a lengthy trial held behind closed doors and after a plea bargain negotiations, prosecutors dropped terrorism-related charges against the defendant, as well as charges specifying Israelis were his alleged targets.
“We convinced the court that ethnicity had absolutely nothing to do with this case,” Efstathiou said. “It had nothing to do with terrorism.”
Friday’s sentencing takes into account time already served in detention. “Its a severe penalty, within the scope of the law,” the lawyer said.
(Reporting by Michele Kambas; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
ANKARA (Reuters) -Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler said on Monday it would take at least two months to reach initial findings and analyse the black box of a Turkish cargo plane that crashed in Georgia last week and left 20 soldiers dead.
The C-130 cargo aircraft had left Azerbaijan for Turkey and crashed in Georgia, marking the NATO member’s highest military death toll since 2020. Ankara has said it was investigating the cause of the crash.
Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Guler said the black box of the aircraft was being inspected by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS), adding that despite the crash, the C-130 planes – which Turkey has been operating since 1957 – were “generally safe”.
“According to preliminary findings, although not definitive, the tail breaks off first. It then splits into three. This will be found in the (inspection of the) black box,” he said, and added that, apart from an engine fire in 1999 after which the aircraft had landed safely, there had been no issues with the C-130s.
Turkey’s defence ministry said last week the aircraft was carrying a 10-person maintenance team for Turkish F-16s that had earlier taken part in Victory Day celebrations in Azerbaijan, as well as the flight crew and maintenance equipment.
Turkey’s defence ministry announced last month an agreement with Britain to procure 12 C-130 aircraft that need to undergo modernisation and maintenance.
It also said last week that the crashed plane was bought from Saudi Arabia in 2012, started flights in 2022, and completed its last maintenance a month ago, adding all planned flights by Turkey’s 18 C-130s were suspended pending inspection.
(Reporting by Huseyin Hayatsever; Writing by Tuvan Gumrukcu; Editing by Toby Chopra)
PODGORICA (Reuters) -Police in Montenegro said on Monday they had detained dozens of Turkish and Azeri nationals after a weekend of violence triggered by the stabbing of a Montenegrin man in the capital Podgorica by a group of Turks.
President Jakov Milatovic has called for calm, while Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said his government would temporarily suspend a visa-free regime for Turkish nationals.
The Montenegrin man was stabbed on Saturday night after an exchange of insults with a group of Turkish citizens, though his injuries were not life-threatening.
Dozens of local people on Sunday retaliated by vandalising vehicles with Turkish number plates and at one point forced some Turkish citizens to barricade themselves in a casino.
The police said they had detained two people suspected of being involved in the stabbing incident, a Turkish national and an Azeri, as well as an additional 45 Turkish and Azeri citizens suspected of lacking legal residence documents.
They fined seven of those detained and ordered the deportation of eight others, police said in a statement.
Out of 100,000 foreign citizens registered permanently or temporarily in Montenegro, around 13,000 are Turks, Interior Minister Danilo Saranovic said.
Officials say there has been an increase in the number of Turkish citizens opening businesses or seeking work in Montenegro, a tiny Adriatic state of around 620,000 people heavily reliant on tourism, ahead of its expected accession in the coming years to the European Union.
“With the aim of preserving economic activity and good bilateral relations, we will initiate intensive discussions with the Republic of Turkey in the coming period to find, in the spirit of good cooperation and partnership, the best model (of visa arrangements) in our mutual interest,” Spajic said on X.
President Milatovic condemned the violence.
“There must be no room for collective guilt or the stigmatization of an entire people,” Milatovic said. “Montenegro needs a more responsible immigration policy: firm against abuses and crime, fair towards all who respect our laws.”
(Reporting by Stevo vasiljevic, writing by Daria Sito-Sucic; Editing by Gareth Jones)
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin told Azerbaijan’s leader that two Russian missiles had detonated beside an Azerbaijan Airlines plane last year after Ukrainian drones entered Russian air space and promised compensation to those affected.
Flight J2-8243, en route from Baku to the Chechen capital Grozny, crash-landed on December 25 near Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from southern Russia, where Ukrainian drones were reported to be attacking several targets.
At least 38 people were killed.
Video footage on Thursday showed Putin and Aliyev shaking hands and smiling before a bilateral meeting in Tajikistan at which Putin spoke about the plane crash.
Putin last year issued a rare public apology to Aliyev for what the Kremlin called a “tragic incident” over Russia in which the plane crashed after Russian air defences were deployed against Ukrainian drones.
On Thursday, he went further.
“Of course, everything that is required in such tragic cases will be done by the Russian side on compensation and a legal assessment of all official things will be given,” Putin told Aliyev..
“It is our duty, I repeat once again… to give an objective assessment of everything that happened and to identify the true causes.”
Putin told Aliyev that two Russian air defence missiles had detonated several metres away from the plane after Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace.
The Embraer jet had flown from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to Grozny, in Russia’s southern republic of Chechnya, where the incident occurred, and had then travelled, badly damaged, another 280 miles (450 km) across the Caspian Sea.
Aliyev was angry about the crash and has publicly criticised the initial reactions from Moscow which he said sought to cover up the cause of the incident.
(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge Editing by Andrew Osborn)
In recent weeks, President Trump has repeatedly claimed he deserves credit for ending six or seven wars during his first months in office, arguing that he should receive the Nobel Peace Prize for his work.
“I stopped seven wars, and they were, they’re big ones too,” Mr. Trump said Friday.
“I’ve settled six wars, and a lot of people say seven because there’s one that nobody knows about,” he said in an August 19 interview.
A White House official provided a list of seven conflicts the president is referencing: Israel and Iran, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of the Congo, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Thailand and Cambodia, India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Serbia and Kosovo.
“There has been more progress towards peace than ever before because of this President’s leadership,” the official wrote.
The recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace prize is expected to be announced next month.
Over 100 people have received the award since the 19th-century chemist Alfred Nobel created the prize to honor a “person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”
Four U.S. presidents have been past laureates, most recently Barack Obama who received the prize for supporting nuclear nonproliferation and international diplomacy.
Foreign policy experts say that while Mr. Trump has helped broker ceasefires, including one between Israel and Iran, several of the foreign conflicts cited by the administration were not full-scale wars — and many remain unresolved. The White House did not respond to a request for clarification on why the president has repeatedly labeled all seven conflicts as settled wars.
Some of these peace efforts involved limited U.S. involvement, and in other instances, it remains unclear whether Mr. Trump’s role was decisive.
Here’s a look at the conflicts:
Israel and Iran
After Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, a 12-day conflict resulted in the deaths of about 28 Israelis and hundreds of Iranians before a ceasefire was reached with U.S. and Qatari involvement. Mr. Trump claimed credit, saying he had ordered U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment sites and pressed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold back from further strikes.
Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings, said Mr. Trump deserves some credit for this ceasefire. “He managed to use a combination of a good relationship with Netanyahu, but also a willingness to put a little pressure on Netanyahu that I think contributed to the at least temporary cessation of hostilities,” O’Hanlon said.
But other foreign policy experts said tensions between the nations are far from resolved, and Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in early July that the Defense Department estimated the U.S. strikes likely delayed Iran’s nuclear program by “one to two years.”
Larry Haas, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council said, “I very strongly disagree with the notion that the president brought peace to Iran and Israel. We may be in a quiet period in terms of direct confrontation, but Iran right now is trying to regroup.”
Rwanda and Democratic Republic of the Congo
In June, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo announced a peace deal after multiple days of talks in Washington mediated by President Trump and Qatar.
The deal aimed to end three decades of fighting over Congo’s mineral reserves. Yet the violence has continued, with both sides accusing each other of violating peace terms. Human Rights Watch reported that M23, an armed group that U.S. officials believe is backed by Rwanda, killed over 140 civilians in eastern Congo in July.
“It’s a premature declaration of success, when in fact we are just getting to the starting line,” O’Hanlon said.
Armenia and Azerbaijan
In August, Mr. Trump helped negotiate an agreement aimed at normalizing relations and reopening transportation routes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have spent decades fighting for control of the Karabakh region.
O’Hanlon and Haas agreed the Trump administration pushed the deal forward in part by inviting both leaders to the White House. Leaders of both countries also credited Mr. Trump for the agreement, saying he should receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
But the deal is not a formal peace agreement and requires ratification. One remaining sticking point is that Azerbaijan wants Armenia to remove any mention of territorial claims to Azerbaijan’s land from its constitution before officials sign a final deal. Armenia’s prime minister has expressed willingness to change the constitution but has not specified a date for a referendum.
Thailand and Cambodia
In late July, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire after an outbreak of fighting killed at least 35 people. President Trump said that he had pressured both sides to come to the table by threatening trade consequences.
The U.S. is a top importer for bothcounties, and foreign policy experts CBS News spoke to said Mr. Trump’s tariff threats played a significant role in securing a ceasefire. “He helped move things along with economic pressure,” Haas said.
The border dispute is continuing, though, with Thai officials accusing Cambodia of laying new landmines. Cambodia denied doing so.
India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire in May after weeks of cross-border missile and drone strikes. The deal ended the latest flare-up in their long-running dispute over Kashmir, which both nuclear-armed nations claim as their territory.
Pakistan credited the Trump administration’s efforts in U.S.-led talks, and nominated him for the Nobel Peace prize. But India insisted its own pressure on Pakistan, not U.S. diplomacy, drove the deal.
Josh Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it’s a stretch to call the dispute over Kashmir settled.
“There is no real ending to this conflict,” he said, noting that future negotiations could be complicated by Mr. Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on India, a key partner.
Egypt and Ethiopia
Mr. Trump also claims he brokered peace between Ethiopia and Egypt, which have disagreed about Ethiopia’s decision to construct a hydroelectric dam in the Nile.
During his first term, Mr. Trump tried to broker a deal between the countries and suspended some aid to Ethiopia because of a lack of progress. In June, the president mentioned the dispute on Truth Social, writing, “There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way!”
No deals have been announced, however. Ethiopia still plans to officially open its dam in September over Egypt’s objections that it will restrict the flow of water to its country. And while Egypt previously threatened to go to war over the dam, this conflict has remained a diplomatic one.
O’Hanlon said of the dispute, “I would not call the Egypt-Ethiopia interaction a war.”
Serbia and Kosovo
In 2020, President Trump helped negotiate a deal between Serbia and Kosovo to help normalize economic ties, but progress stalled afterwards.
Talks have continued with European leaders, but no breakthroughs have emerged. Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, which Serbia still does not recognize.
“His deal-making, to the extent that it existed, actually occurred in his first term, and he really hasn’t stopped what’s going on,” Haas said.
On Aug. 8, as the White House hosted the trilateral signing of a peace agreement between Armenia, Azerbaijan and the United States, I spoke to a group of Armenian high school students from Los Angeles. We paused to watch the news conference on a laptop in the corner of our crowded room. Their faces — curious, cautious and skeptical — mirrored a sentiment across the Armenian diaspora: hope tempered by doubt, pride shadowed by mistrust.
This conflict’s roots run deep. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal war over a region within Azerbaijan’s borders but claimed by both nations. Azerbaijanis call it Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenians call it Artsakh. A ceasefire held for years but left core disputes unresolved — over territory, governance and the right of self-determination for the region’s Armenian population.
War erupted again in 2020. Backed by Turkey and armed with advanced weapons, Azerbaijan gained control of much of the disputed territory. The Trump administration did nothing to meaningfully intervene. For Armenians, it was a devastating loss — of land, security, trust and cultural heritage. For Azerbaijan, it was a political and military victory that shifted the balance of power.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan launched a blockade of the Lachin corridor — the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh to Armenia — tightening its grip on a region already reeling from war. For the next 10 months, gas, electricity, internet, food and medicine were cut off to 120,000 Armenians, many of them children and elderly. Families rationed bread. Surgeries were postponed. Schools closed.
I visited the region during this time and stood at the Armenian end of the corridor, where a silent convoy of trucks stretched out of sight up the road — each loaded with food, medicine and basic supplies, each driver knowing they might never be allowed to deliver them. The air was heavy with frustration and helplessness. In the limited coverage of the siege, the isolated Armenians spoke in hushed tones, their faces drawn from months of fear and deprivation. The International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to reopen the corridor, but Baku ignored it.
I took pride when President Biden officially recognized the Armenian genocide — a moral milestone decades overdue. But his administration failed to punish Azerbaijan during the blockade, and it failed to prevent what came next: Azerbaijan’s full-scale military assault on Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh in September 2023. The attack lasted just 24 hours but forced more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians — virtually the entire population of the region — to flee their homes. Centuries-old communities were emptied almost overnight, and families left behind homes, businesses and places of worship, uncertain if they would ever return.
I’ve felt conflicted watching the Trump administration’s peace-making efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On one hand, I love seeing my country, the United States, stand with Armenia and prioritize Armenian issues on the world stage. On the other, this moment feels hollow. And to me, this reflects a deeper problem: U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus has long lacked consistency, accountability and the will to confront aggressors, no matter which party is in power. And in Washington, Armenians have few friends and weak representation.
This agreement — like much of U.S. foreign policy in the current administration — is unmistakably transactional. Armenia gains U.S. security assurances and cooperation on artificial intelligence, including support for an emerging AI hub, which is meant to anchor its Western trajectory. Azerbaijan walks away with de facto immunity instead of being held accountable for its actions against the Armenians of Artsakh, as well as arms sales and a transit corridor to Turkey. The United States gets a geopolitical trophy: Trump’s name on the corridor to Turkey, leverage in the region and an apparent diplomatic “win” to market at home.
But this deal is far from complete. It omits the right of return for displaced Armenians to Artsakh, ignores the destruction of Armenians’ towns, homes and businesses, makes no commitment to preserve Artsakh’s cultural heritage and says nothing about prisoners of war. For many in the Armenian diaspora, these are glaring and unacceptable omissions.
On paper, the newly named Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, the link from Azerbaijan to Turkey, is billed as a neutral, cooperative route to be administered by the U.S. In reality, it raises serious questions about Armenia’s sovereignty. The corridor will run through Armenia’s southern Syunik province — its only direct land link to Iran — and could weaken Yerevan’s ability to fully control its own borders, regulate trade and ensure unimpeded access to a vital southern lifeline.
At best, the Aug. 8 agreement offers a slim hope for a real resolution of the region’s conflicts. If implemented fully, it could help build a more stable and prosperous Armenia for future generations. The challenge is in ensuring this deal yields a U.S. investment in reconstruction, accountability and lasting security, something more than a photo op.
And even incomplete, flawed agreements can create openings. Armenia’s pivot West, which the deal underlines, carries risk, but it also offers the possibility of stronger security partnerships, economic renewal and cultural preservation, if those benefits reach the people who have endured war and blockade, not just the leaders who signed the papers. In recent years, Armenia has seen a surprising economic boom, driven by tech investment, tourism and a wave of returning diaspora talent. This fragile momentum could be strengthened or squandered depending on what comes next.
I respect President Trump for pursuing peace agreements — leaders everywhere should make peace their highest priority. The Armenian American students I met on Aug. 8, who carry the inherited pain of their parents and grandparents, deserve more than symbolic gestures or transactional deals. They deserve justice and the freedom to envision a better future for their ancestors’ homeland. Ultimately, that is the hope we all share.
Jirair Ratevosian served as senior policy advisor for the State Department in the Biden administration.
President Donald Trump has projected himself as a peacemaker since returning to the White House in January, touting his efforts to end global conflicts.
In meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders Monday, Trump repeated that he has been instrumental in stopping multiple wars but didn’t specify which.
“I’ve done six wars, I’ve ended six wars, Trump said in the Oval Office with Zelenskyy. He later added: “If you look at the six deals I settled this year, they were all at war. I didn’t do any ceasefires.”
He raised that figure Tuesday, telling “Fox & Friends” that “we ended seven wars.”
But although Trump helped mediate relations among many of these nations, experts say his impact isn’t as clear cut as he claims.
Here’s a closer look at the conflicts.
People take pictures of smoke rising from an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 23, 2025. (AP Photo, File)
People take pictures of smoke rising from an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, June 23, 2025. (AP Photo, File)
Israel and Iran
Trump is credited with ending the 12-day war.
Israel launched attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in June, saying it wanted to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon — which Tehran has denied it was trying to do.
Trump negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Iran just after directing American warplanes to strike Iran’s Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. He publicly harangued both countries into maintaining the ceasefire.
Evelyn Farkas, executive director of Arizona State University’s McCain Institute, said Trump should get credit for ending the war.
“There’s always a chance it could flare up again if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program, but nonetheless, they were engaged in a hot war with one another,” she said. “And it didn’t have any real end in sight before President Trump got involved and gave them an ultimatum.”
Lawrence Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council who is an expert on Israel-Iran tensions, agreed the U.S. was instrumental in securing the ceasefire. But he characterized it as a “temporary respite” from the ongoing “day-to-day cold war” between the two foes that often involves flare-ups.
Egypt and Ethiopia
This could be described as tensions at best, and peace efforts — which don’t directly involve the U.S. — have stalled.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River has caused friction between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan since the power-generating project was announced more than a decade ago. In July, Ethiopia declared the project complete, with an inauguration set for September.
Egypt and Sudan oppose the dam. Although the vast majority of the water that flows down the Nile originates in Ethiopia, Egyptian agriculture relies on the river almost entirely. Sudan, meanwhile, fears flooding and wants to protect its own power-generating dams.
During his first term, Trump tried to broker a deal between Ethiopia and Egypt but couldn’t get them to agree. He suspended aid to Ethiopia over the dispute. In July, he posted on Truth Social that he helped the “fight over the massive dam (and) there is peace at least for now.” However, the disagreement persists, and negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have stalled.
“It would be a gross overstatement to say that these countries are at war,” said Haas. “I mean, they’re just not.”
Indian security officers patrol in armored vehicles in Pahalgam, Indian controlled Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, after assailants indiscriminately opened fired at tourists. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)
Indian security officers patrol in armored vehicles in Pahalgam, Indian controlled Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, after assailants indiscriminately opened fired at tourists. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)
Trump has claimed that the U.S. brokered the ceasefire, which he said came about in part because he offered trade concessions. Pakistan thanked Trump, recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize. But India has denied Trump’s claims, saying there was no conversation between the U.S. and India on trade in regards to the ceasefire.
Although India has downplayed the Trump administration’s role in the ceasefire, Haas and Farkas believe the U.S. deserves some credit for helping stop the fighting.
“I think that President Trump played a constructive role from all accounts, but it may not have been decisive. And again, I’m not sure whether you would define that as a full-blown war,” Farkas said.
Serbia and Kosovo
The White House lists the conflict between these countries as one Trump resolved, but there has been no threat of a war between the two neighbors during Trump’s second term, nor any significant contribution from Trump this year to improve their relations.
Kosovo is a former Serbian province that declared independence in 2008. Tensions have persisted ever since, but never to the point of war, mostly because NATO-led peacekeepers have been deployed in Kosovo, which has been recognized by more than 100 countries.
During his first term, Trump negotiated a wide-ranging deal between Serbia and Kosovo, but much of what was agreed on was never carried out.
People protest in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, against the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels’ advances into eastern Congo’s capital, Goma, on Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Samy Ntumba Shambuyi, File)
People protest in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, against the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels’ advances into eastern Congo’s capital, Goma, on Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Samy Ntumba Shambuyi, File)
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Trump has played a key role in peace efforts between the African neighbors, but he’s hardly alone and the conflict is far from over.
Eastern Congo, rich in minerals, has been battered by fighting with more than 100 armed groups. The most potent is the M23 rebel group backed by neighboring Rwanda, which claims it is protecting its territorial interests and that some of those who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide fled to Congo and are working with the Congolese army.
The Trump administration’s efforts paid off in June, when the Congolese and Rwandan foreign ministers signed a peace deal at the White House. The M23, however, wasn’t directly involved in the U.S.-facilitated negotiations and said it couldn’t abide by the terms of an agreement that didn’t involve it.
The final step to peace was meant to be a separate Qatar-facilitated deal between Congo and M23 that would bring about a permanent ceasefire. But with the fighting still raging, Monday’s deadline for the Qatar-led deal was missed and there have been no public signs of major talks between Congo and M23 on the final terms.
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Trump this month hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, where they signed a deal aimed at ending a decades-long conflict between the two nations. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the signed document a “significant milestone,” and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hailed Trump for performing “a miracle.”
The two countries signed agreements intended to reopen key transportation routes and reaffirm Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s commitment to signing a peace treaty. The treaty’s text was initialed by the countries’ foreign ministers at that meeting, which indicates preliminary approval. But the two countries have yet to sign and ratify the deal.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter conflict over territory since the early 1990s, when ethnic Armenian forces took control of the Karabakh province, known internationally as Nagorno-Karabakh, and nearby territories. In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military recaptured broad swaths of territory. Russia brokered a truce and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.
In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a lightning blitz to retake remaining portions. The two countries have worked toward normalizing ties and signing a peace treaty ever since.
This photo released by the Royal Thai Army shows an injured Thai soldier who stepped on a land mine, being airlifted to a hospital in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, July 23, 2025. (The Royal Thai Army via AP, File)
This photo released by the Royal Thai Army shows an injured Thai soldier who stepped on a land mine, being airlifted to a hospital in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, July 23, 2025. (The Royal Thai Army via AP, File)
Cambodia and Thailand
Officials from Thailand and Cambodia credit Trump with pushing the Asian neighbors to agree to a ceasefire in this summer’s brief border conflict.
Cambodia and Thailand have clashed in the past over their shared border. The latest fighting began in July after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Tensions had been growing since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a confrontation that created a diplomatic rift and roiled Thai politics.
Both countries agreed in late July to an unconditional ceasefire during a meeting in Malaysia. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pressed for the pact, but there was little headway until Trump intervened. Trump said on social media that he warned the Thai and Cambodian leaders that the U.S. would not move forward with trade agreements if the hostilities continued. Both countries faced economic difficulties and neither had reached tariff deals with the U.S., though most of their Southeast Asian neighbors had.
According to Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and University of Michigan doctoral candidate, “President Trump’s decision to condition a successful conclusion to these talks on a ceasefire likely played a significant role in ensuring that both sides came to the negotiating table when they did.” ___ Associated Press reporters Jon Gambrell, Grant Peck, Dasha Litvinova, Fay Abuelgasim, Rajesh Roy, and Dusan Stojanovic contributed.
It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world and do deals/shots with the global elite at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.
This year’s theme: “Rebuilding trust.” Prescient, given the dumpster fire the world seems to be turning into lately, both literally (climate change) and figuratively (where to even begin?).
As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump will be tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, dictators, thugs, extortionists, misery merchants, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list.
1. Argentine President Javier Milei
Known as the Donald Trump of Argentina — and also as “The Madman” and “The Wig” — the chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei has it all: a fanatical supporter base, background as a TV shock jock, libertarian anarcho-capitalist policies (except when it comes to abortion), and a … memorable … hairdo.
A long-time Davos devotee (he’s been attending the WEF for years), Milei’s libertarian policies have turned from kooky thought bubbles to concerning reality after he was elected president of South America’s second-largest economy, riding a wave of discontent with the political establishment (sound familiar?). The question now is how far Milei will go in delivering on his campaign promises to hack back public service and state spending, close the Argentine central bank and drop the peso.
If you do get stuck talking to Milei in the congress center or on the slopes, here are some conversation starters …
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of top Saudi officials.
It’s the ultimate redemption arc for the repressive authoritarian ruler of a country with an appalling human rights record — who, according to United States intelligence, personally ordered the brutal assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event | Leon Neal/Getty Images
Perhaps MBS would still be a WEF pariah — consigned to rubbing shoulders with mere B-listers at his own Davos in the desert — if it were not for that other one-time Davos-darling-turned-persona-non-grata: Russian President Vladimir Putin. By launching his invasion of Ukraine, which killed thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of troops, Putin managed to push the West back into MBS’ embrace. Guess it’s all just oil under the bridge now.
Here’s a piece of free advice: Try to avoid being caught getting a signature MBS fist-bump. Unless, of course, you’re the next person on our list …
3. Jared Kushner, founder of Affinity Partners
Jared Kushner is the closest anyone on the mountain is likely to come to Trump, the former — and possibly future — billionaire baron-cum-anti-elitist president of the United States of America.
On the one hand, a chat with The Donald’s son-in-law in the days just after the Iowa caucus would probably be quite a get for the Davos devotee. On other hand … it’s Jared Kushner.
The 43-year-old, who is married to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior adviser to the former president during his time in office, leveraged his stint in the White House to build up a lucrative consulting career, focused mainly on the Middle East.
Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is largely funded through Gulf countries. That includes a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, led by bin Salman — which was, coincidentally, pushed through despite objections by the crown prince’s own advisers.
Kushner struck up a friendship and alliance with MBS during his father-in-law’s term in office, raising major conflict-of-interest suspicions for the Trump administration — especially when the then-U.S. president refused to condemn the Saudi leader in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, despite the CIA concluding he was directly involved.
Running Azerbaijan is something of a family business for the Aliyevs — Ilham assumed power after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, an ex-Soviet KGB officer who ruled the country for decades. And the junior Aliyev changed Azerbaijan’s constitution to pave the path to power for the next generation of his family — and appointed his own wife as vice president to boot.
5. Chinese Premier Li Qiang
Li Qiang is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ultra-loyal right-hand man, and will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year.
Li’s claim to infamy: imposing a brutal lockdown on the entirety of Shanghai for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic, which trapped its 25 million-plus inhabitants at home while many struggled to get food, tend to their animals or seek medical help — and tanking the city’s economy in the process.
Li’s also the guy selling (and whitewashing) China’s Uyghur policy in the Islamic world. In case you need a refresher, China has detained Uyghurs, who are mostly Muslim, in internment camps in the northwest region of Xinjiang, where there have been allegations of torture, slavery, forced sterilization, sexual abuse and brainwashing. China’s actions have been branded genocide by the U.S. State Department, and as potential crimes against humanity by the United Nations.
Li Qiang will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
Nicknamed “the Napoleon of Africa” in a nod to his campaign to seize power in 1994, Paul Kagame has ruled over the land of a thousand hills since. He’s often praised for overseeing what is probably the greatest development success story of modern Africa; he’s also a dictator.
Forced from office in 2018 by mass protests following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová, Fico rose from the political ashes to become Slovakian prime minister for the fourth time late last year. His Smer party ran a Putin-friendly campaign, pledging to end all military support for Ukraine.
Slovakian courts are still working through multiple organized crime cases stemming from the last time Smer was in power, involving oligarchs alleged to have profited from state contracts; former top police brass and senior military intelligence officers; and parliamentarians from all three parties in Fico’s new coalition government.
8. President of Hungary Katalin Novák
Katalin Novák, elected Hungarian president in 2022, must’ve pulled the short straw: she’s been sent to Davos to fly the flag for the EU’s pariah state. Luckily, the 46-year-old is used to being the odd one out at a shindig: She’s both the first woman and the youngest-ever Hungarian president.
It’s her thoughts on the gender pay gap, though, that ought to get attention at the famously male-dominated World Economic Forum: In an infamous video posted back in late 2020, Novák told the sisterhood: “Do not believe that women have to constantly compete with men. Do not believe that every waking moment of our lives must be spent with comparing ourselves to men, and that we should work in at least the same position, for at least the same pay they do.” That’s us told.
9. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
You may be surprised to see Hun Manet on this list: The new, Western-educated Cambodian prime minister has been touted in some circles as a potential modernizer and reformer.
But Hun Manet is less a breath of fresh air and a lot more continuation of the same stale story. Having inherited his position from his father, the longtime autocrat Hun Sen, Hun Manet has shown no signs of wanting to reform or modernize Cambodia. While some say it’s too early to tell where he’ll land (given his dad’s still on the scene, along with his Communist loyalists), the fact is: Many hallmarks of autocracy are still present in Cambodia. Repression of the opposition? Check. Dodgy “elections”? Check. Widespread graft and clientelism? Check and check.
10. Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani
How has a small kingdom of 2.6 million inhabitants in the Persian Gulf managed to play a starring role in so many explosive scandals?
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani is the prime minister of Qatar, a country that’s played a starring role in many explosive scandals | Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images
You’d think that sort of record would see Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani shunned by the world’s top brass. Nah! Just this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Qatari leader and told him the U.S. was “deeply grateful for your ongoing leadership in this effort, for the tireless work which you undertook and that continues, to try to free the remaining hostages.”
See you on the slopes, Mohammed!
11. Polish President Andrzej Duda
When you compare Polish President Andrzej Duda to some of the others on this list, he doesn’t seem to measure up. He’s not a dictator running a violent petro-state, hasn’t invaded any neighbors or even wielded a chainsaw on stage.
But Duda is yesterday’s man. As the last one standing from Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party that was swept out of office last year, Duda’s holding on for dear life to his own relevance, doing his best to act as a spoiler against the Donald Tusk-led government by wielding his veto powers and harboring convicted lawmakers. All of which is to say: When you catch up with President Duda at Davos, don’t assume he’s speaking for Poland.
12. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco
The Saudi Arabian state oil and gas company is Aramco — the world’s biggest energy firm — and Amin Nasser is its boss. If you read Aramco’s press releases, you’d be forgiven for assuming it is also the world’s biggest champion of the green energy transition. Spoiler alert: It’s far from it.
Exhibit A: Aramco is reportedly a top corporate polluter, with environment nongovernmental organization ClientEarth reporting that it accounts for more than 4 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1965. Exhibit B: Bloomberg reported in 2021 that it understated its carbon footprint by as much as 50 percent.
Nasser, meanwhile, has criticized the idea that climate action should mean countries “either shut down or slow down big time” their fossil fuel production. Say that to Al Gore’s face!
This article has been updated to reflect the fact Shou Zi Chew is no longer going to attend the World Economic Forum.
Dionisios Sturis, Peter Snowdon, Suzanne Lynch and Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Next year’s COP29 climate summit is set to take place in oil-rich Azerbaijan after Eastern European countries resolved a political deadlock on Saturday.
Geopolitical tensions had left the 2024 conference in limbo for months, with Russia blocking EU countries from hosting and feuding neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan vetoing each other.
But after Armenia and Bulgaria formally withdrew their bids earlier this week, the 23-country Eastern European group backed Azerbaijan during a meeting on Saturday, Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov told POLITICO.
Earlier on Saturday, Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister of ecology and natural resources, said in a speech that he was “delighted” to announce that there was overall consensus on Azerbaijan’s candidacy to host COP29.
“We are very grateful to all countries, in particular to the Eastern European group and the host United Arab Emirates for their support,” said Babayev. “We are committed to working inclusively and collaboratively with everyone to ensure the success of COP29. May COP28 lead us forward toward a more sustainable and secure future for all.”
Baku’s bid will still have to be voted on by the entire COP plenary, but that is usually a formality.
If confirmed, next year’s summit will once again take place in a major oil- and gas-producing country.
The UAE, host of this year’s COP28, is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer. Fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports. And the host of the COP30 climate talks in 2025, Brazil, has just announced it would join the OPEC+ oil cartel.
Think the location of this year’s global climate summit is contentious? Wait till you hear about the next one.
When COP28 kicks off next week in the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face pressure to show its fossil fuel interests won’t capture negotiations.
But at least the conference has a host. Next year’s summit, COP29, is currently homeless.
That’s because regional tensions have created a deadlock. The conference is meant to take place in Eastern Europe, but Russia is preventing any European Union country from hosting, while warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking each other, and no one has been able to agree on a way forward.
The result: COP29 is in limbo, and global efforts to secure a liveable future risk being left leaderless. If no one picks up the baton, the current host may remain in place until COP30 starts in 2025 — likely leaving the UAE in charge of talks on major decisions like a new finance goal and getting governments to commit to post-2030 climate targets.
Officially, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they don’t believe that Bulgaria or any other EU country will be impartial in running COP29,” said Julian Popov, the environment minister for Bulgaria, which has offered to host next year’s climate summit.
But behind closed doors, “their argument is that they are being blocked by EU countries about various things in relation to the war against Ukraine,” he told POLITICO in an interview.
“They are,” he said, “basically retaliating.”
The dispute now risks disrupting both COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the issue before departing Dubai in mid-December.
“Russia has chosen to hold these negotiations almost hostage,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy and geopolitics at think tank E3G.
Race against time
The hosting dispute is inflaming geopolitical tensions heading into COP28, which takes place amid growing global discord related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and an evolving debt crisis looming over developing nations.
The COP climate summits typically rotate among the United Nations’ five regional groups, and next year is Eastern Europe’s turn. The 23-country Eastern Europe group has to decide on the host country by consensus.
COP28 President-Designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber | Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies
In the past, that wasn’t hard: The COP conference would just rubber-stamp the host chosen by the regional group. Now, however, the decision will have to be taken at the height of tricky talks on a host of issues ranging from the future of fossil fuels to financial help for poorer countries.
“It’s unfortunate,” said Popov, that the hosting dispute may “distract” from the actual negotiations in Dubai.
Then there’s the issue of preparation. COP locations are usually chosen well in advance — the UAE was announced as host in 2021, and COP30 will take place in Brazil — to allow host cities to ready themselves for the arrival of tens of thousands of delegates.
The host country usually, but not always, also takes on the COP presidency, which plays a crucial role in leading negotiations before, during and after the summit.
“We still don’t know who will run the process next year,” Popov said. “This is damaging the whole COP process and will inevitably have a negative impact on the quality of negotiations.”
Among the key issues to be settled at COP29 is a new financial target for funding climate action in developing countries from 2025 onward. Ahead of COP30, countries are meant to submit a new round of climate pledges, including targets to reduce emissions by 2035.
“You really need months of diplomacy in advance to set these COPs up for success,” Evans said.
Geopolitical stalemate
Besides Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Armenia also said last year they would throw their hats in the ring for 2024.
Prague eventually withdrew, proposing instead to host the annual pre-COP summit ahead of the main event in Bulgaria. But this past spring, Russia sent an email to other Eastern European representatives saying it would prevent EU countries from hosting, accusing them of blocking Russia-backed countries.
The email, obtained by Reuters, read: “It is reasonable to believe that EU countries, driven by politics from Brussels, do not have the capacity to serve as honest and effective brokers of global climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,” the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
In the summer, Azerbaijan joined the race to host COP29 — a few months before launching a large-scale offensive to retake the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Armenia.
Azerbaijan and Armenia are now opposing each other’s bids, said Gayane Gabrielyan, Armenia’s deputy environment minister.
“Russia is blocking any EU country, and Armenia and Azerbaijan can’t find a solution,” she told POLITICO. “We have more than 100,000 refugees … In this situation, we will not be able to discuss anything with them.”
The foreign and environment ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan did not respond to requests for comment.
The Eastern Europeans could also swap with another regional group or a specific country outside the region to host — like Spain stepped in for Chile in 2019 — but that would also require consensus, as well as the formal withdrawal of all host candidates.
“The only option now is going to Bonn,” Gabrielyan said. “The motherland of the UNFCCC.”
Bonn-bound?
Bonn is where the U.N. climate body is headquartered. The conference guidelines indicate that the summit would default to the former West German capital if no agreement is found among the Eastern European group.
But hosting a climate conference “isn’t trivial,” Evans said. “There’s a cost involved, and there’s a huge logistical headache.”
Several European diplomats, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, told POLITICO that Germany was less than keen, something German officials would neither confirm nor deny.
Asked if Germany was prepared to host, a foreign office spokesperson said that discussions within the Eastern European group were ongoing, “with the aim of COP28 taking a decision.”
While Bonn may end up serving as the venue, the presidency would likely remain in the hands of the UAE if the Eastern Europeans can’t find consensus, a spokesperson for the U.N. climate body said.
Yet the UAE, which has faced a barrage of criticism since naming national oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber as conference president, appears reluctant to continue in its role.
COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi said last month that his country would not host again. Asked to clarify whether that also meant not extending the presidency, a COP28 spokesperson declined to comment.
The predicament has prompted Bulgaria to suggest a novel solution to, as Popov put it, “save COP29” — splitting the mega-event across several nations in Eastern Europe.
“Here’s what we suggested: A distributed COP — have the pre-COP, the presidency and the COP held by three different countries, and have some events organized in different Eastern European countries,” he said.
But that, too, would need the backing of all regional group members. Gabrielyan said Armenia was “ready to discuss” this option, but that Azerbaijan had signaled opposition.
The uncertainty over who will host COP29 may come with one positive side-effect, however: Diplomats might be wary of postponing difficult decisions to next year.
“It’s not uncommon for COPs, when they reach some of the trickiest issues, to kick the can down the road,” said Evans. “I don’t feel like this is an option this time.”
KYIV — Sergeant Yegor Firsov, deputy commander of a Ukrainian army strike drone unit, sounds exhausted in a voice message he sent to POLITICO from Avdiivka, an industrial city at the center of intense fighting on the eastern front.
Russian troops have been storming Avdiivka relentlessly for more than two weeks in an all-out effort to encircle the Ukrainian forces there.
“The situation is very difficult. We are fighting for the heights around the city,” Firsov said. “If the enemy controls these heights, then all logistics and roads leading to the city will be under its control. This will make it much harder to resupply our forces.”
Facing an enemy with superior numbers of troops and armor, the Ukrainian defenders are holding on with the help of tiny drones flown by operators like Firsov that, for a few hundred dollars, can deliver an explosive charge capable of destroying a Russian tank worth more than $2 million.
The FPV — or “first-person view” — drones used in such strikes are equipped with an onboard camera that enables skilled operators like Firsov to direct them to their target with pinpoint accuracy. Before the war, a teenager might hope to get one for a New Year present. Now they are being used as agile weapons that can transform battlefield outcomes. Others are watching, and learning, from a technology that is giving early adopters an asymmetric advantage against established methods of warfare.
“It’s hard to handle the emotion when a drone pilot hits a tank. The whole group and the whole platoon are happy like babies. Infantry units are rejoicing nearby. Everyone is screaming, and hugging. Although they do not know the guy who gave them this happiness,” Firsov wrote in a Facebook post.
A typical FPV weighs up to one kilogram, has four small engines, a battery, a frame and a camera connected wirelessly to goggles worn by a pilot operating it remotely. It can carry up to 2.5 kilograms of explosives and strike a target at a speed of up to 150 kilometers per hour, explains Pavlo Tsybenko, acting director of the Dronarium military academy outside Kyiv.
“This drone costs up to $400 and can be made anywhere. We made ours using microchips imported from China and details we bought on AliExpress. We made the carbon frame ourselves. And, yeah, the batteries are from Tesla. One car has like 1,100 batteries that can be used to power these little guys,” Tsybenko told POLITICO on a recent visit, showing the custom-made FPV drones used by the academy to train future drone pilots.
“It is almost impossible to shoot it down,” he said. “Only a net can help. And I predict that soon we will have to put up such nets above our cities, or at least government buildings, all over Europe.”
Contagious technology
Commercial drones were first weaponized in Azerbaijan’s — ultimately successful — campaign to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh breakaway region from Armenian separatists. Their use has expanded rapidly in the 20-month-old Russian war in Ukraine.
And, earlier this month, Hamas militants flew drones to knock out Israeli border defenses during a surprise attack in which they massacred more than 1,400 people and took around 200 hostages. For Ukrainians, the video clip of a Hamas drone destroying an Israeli main battle tank by dropping a grenade was a film they had seen before.
Ukrainian drone experts and intelligence officials are convinced that Russian specialists have trained Hamas in the art of drone warfare — although Moscow denies this.
Some experts worry that militants across the world will soon learn how to use FPV drones to sow terror | Simon Wohlfahrt/AFP via Getty Images
“Only we and the Russians know how to do this — and we definitely did not teach them,” Andriy Cherniak, a representative of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, told POLITICO.
Ruslan Belyaiev, head of the Dronarium military academy, shares that view. He warns that other militants will soon learn how to use FPV drones to sow terror.
“No one is immune from such attacks,” said Belyaiev. “In theory, a specialist with my level of expertise could plan and execute an operation to liquidate the first persons of any European state … Pandora’s box is open.”
Secret training
While NATO militaries hesitate to use commercial drones that are mostly made in China, or made from Chinese components, some Western democracies have already shown interest in learning from Ukraine’s experience of drone warfare.
Several figures in Ukraine’s drone community, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, told POLITICO that special forces and anti-terrorist units of two NATO countries bordering Russia have taken courses from Ukrainian drone operators over the past six months.
Their focus is on countering small kamikaze drones and commercial drones that can be successfully used for reconnaissance, correcting artillery fire and video signal transmission, one person with direct knowledge said.
Basic training for a drone pilot takes five days. Learning how to pilot a kamikaze drone takes more than 20 days, Tsybenko said.
Battlefield experience has led the Ukrainian government to shift its preference away from conventional military drones, which are miniature fixed-wing aircraft with a long enough range to strike targets inside Russian territory. The effectiveness of FPV drones at closer quarters has led Defense Minister Rustam Umerov to simplify approvals for new models to be deployed.
“FPV drones are effective tools for destroying the enemy and protecting our country. The Ministry of Defense is doing everything possible to increase number of drones,” Umerov said in a statement on Wednesday.
Team players
Every FPV drone pilot works in tandem with aerial reconnaissance units, who fly a DJI Mavic or other type of drone with video and audio transmitters to observe their mission. “An FPV loses its video signal close to the target. So, the other drone helps the pilot and supporting units to understand the target was indeed hit,” Tsybenko said.
Firsov confirmed that in a Facebook post from the front. What looks simple on video in fact requires close coordination between dozens of people.
“Everything seems so simple, put on glasses — and “Bam!” you destroyed a tank,” said Firsov. “In fact, aerial scouts spend hours looking for targets. A decryptor looks at video and finds targets that the enemy has carefully hidden. A navigator who is nearby helps the pilot to fly along the route. An engineer attaching explosives, a sapper, who twists standard ammunition for drones and many, many others.”
Russian forces use FPV drones to target single soldiers | John Moore/Getty Images
Most FPV drones are kamikaze, Tsybenko said. And their effectiveness has changed the stakes. The Russians, who at first lagged behind Ukraine in mastering drone warfare, have learned from their mistakes. And now they are scaling up Ukraine’s methods of drone warfare.
Russian forces now have “countless” FPV drones that they now use to target single soldiers.
Russia has also launched its own production lines and is devising new tactics to deploy drones in swarms. “One manager and all the others will repeat the movement. This controlled pack is a very big threat on the battlefield,” Tsybenko warned.
China factor
However, neither Ukraine nor Russia are able to produce drones for warfare by themselves. They still source crucial parts from China — the leading maker of commercial drones. Earlier this year the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on drone exports to both Ukraine and Russia out of “fear it would be used for military purposes.”
Still, it’s possible to obtain components and drones via third countries. “Yes, China can either stop or stall the export of parts if it sees ‘Ukraine’ in export data. But it can’t control what we buy in Europe. Russia has fewer problems and a common border with China, and that makes drone imports way easier.”
“Every lock has its key. Indeed, the commercial drones we buy in stores are synchronizing their data with a server. But we learned how to create user logins that are completely anonymized. Even the drone might think it is flying somewhere in Canada — and not in Donbas,” Tsybenko said.
“When we talked to Europeans, they were amazed at how easy it is to hack and anonymize Chinese drones. It is safe to use them, we tried to persuade our partners,” Tsybenko said, adding that Ukraine did not have the luxury of time to independently develop and certify its own drones.
“If we waited, the war would be over when they finally arrived.”
At least Europe no longer has to endure that hackneyed Henry Kissinger quip about whom to call if you want “to call Europe.”
No one’s calling anyway.
Of the myriad geostrategic illusions that have been destroyed in recent days, the most sobering realization for anyone residing on the Continent should be this: No one cares what Europe thinks. Across an array of global flashpoints, from Nagorno-Karabakh to Kosovo to Israel, Europe has been relegated to the role of a well-meaning NGO, whose humanitarian contributions are welcomed, but is otherwise ignored.
The 27-member bloc has always struggled to articulate a coherent foreign policy, given the diverse national interests at play. Even so, it still mattered, mainly due to the size of its market. The EU’s global influence is waning, however, amid the secular decline of its economy and its inability to project military might at a time of growing global instability.
Instead of the “geopolitical” powerhouse Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised when she took office in 2019, the EU has devolved into a pan-Europeanminnow, offering a degree of bemusement to the real players at the top table, while mostly just embarrassing itself amid its cacophony of contradictions.
If that sounds harsh, consider the past 72 hours: In the wake of Hamas’ massacre of hundreds of Israeli civilians over the weekend, European Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi announced on Monday that the bloc would “immediately” suspend €691 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority. A few hours later, Slovenian Commissioner Janez Lenarčič contradicted his Hungarian colleague, insisting the aid “will continue as long as needed.”
The Commission’s press operation followed up with a statement that the EU would conduct an “urgent review” of some aid programs to ensure that funds not be funneled into terrorism, implying such safeguards were not already in place.
As far as the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell was concerned, the outcome of any review of assistance for the Palestinians was a foregone conclusion: “We will have to support more, not less,” he said on Tuesday.
To sum up: Over the course of just 24 hours, the Commission went from announcing it would suspend all aid to the Palestinians to signaling it would increase the flow of funds.
The EU’s response to the events on the ground in Israel was no less confused. Even as Israel was still counting the bodies from the most horrific massacre in the Jewish state’s history, Borrell, a longtime critic of the country who has effectively been declared persona non grata there, resorted to bothsidesing.
Borrell, a Spanish socialist, condemned Hamas’ “barbaric and terrorist attack,” while also chiding Israel for its blockade of Gaza and highlighting the “suffering” of the Palestinians who voted Hamas into power.
The Spaniard’s approach stood in sharp contrast to that of von der Leyen, who unequivocally condemned the attacks (albeit in a series of tweets) and had the Israeli flag projected onto the façade of her office.
Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman to discuss the situation in Israel, but Israel’s foreign minister declined to participate, even remotely | AFP via Getty Images
Those moves immediately drew protest from other corners of the EU, however, with Clare Daly, a firebrand leftist MEP from Ireland, questioning von der Leyen’s legitimacy and telling her to “shut up.”
By mid-week, ascertaining Europe’s position on the crisis was like throwing darts — blindfolded.
Bloody hands
Compare that with the messaging from Washington.
“In this moment, we must be crystal clear,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a special White House address Tuesday. “We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
Biden noted that he’d called France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to discuss the crisis. Notably not on the list: any of the EU’s “leaders.”
On Tuesday, Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman, where they were already gathering, to discuss the situation in Israel. Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, declined to participate, even remotely.
That’s not too surprising, considering Europe’s record on Iran, which has supported Hamas for decades and whose leadership celebrated the weekend attacks. Though Iran denies direct involvement, many analysts say Hamas’ carefully planned assault would not have been possible without training and logistical support from Tehran.
“Hamas would not exist if not for Iran’s support,” U.S. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said on Wednesday. “And so it is a bit of splitting hairs as to whether they were intimately involved in the planning of these attacks, or simply funded Hamas for decades to give them the ability to plan these attacks. There’s no doubt that Iran has blood on its hands.”
Despite persistent signs of Tehran’s malevolent activities across the region, including the detention of a European diplomat vacationing in Iran, Borrell has repeatedly sought to engage with the country’s hard-line regime in the hope of reigniting the so-called nuclear deal with global powers that then-U.S. President Donald Trump exited in 2018.
Last year, Borrell even traveled to Iran in a bid to restart talks, despite the loud objections of Israel’s then-foreign minister, Yair Lapid.
If nothing else, Borrell is consistent.
“Iran wants to wipe out Israel? Nothing new about that,” he told POLITICO in 2019 when he was still Spanish foreign minister. “You have to live with it.”
European Council President Charles Michel mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions | Jorge Guererro/AFP via Getty Images
Now Europe has to live with the consequences of that misguided policy and its loss of credibility in Israel, the region’s only democracy.
The Charles Michel Show
Another glaring example of Europe’s geopolitical impotence is Nagorno-Karabakh, the disputed, predominantly Armenian, region in Azerbaijan.
The long-simmering conflict there was all but forgotten by most of the world, but not by European Council President Charles Michel, who mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions.
In July, Michel hosted leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels, the sixth such meeting. He described the discussions as “frank, honest and substantive.” He even invited the leaders to a special summit in October for a “pentalateral meeting” with Germany and France in Granada.
It wasn’t meant to be. By then, Azerbaijan had seized the region, sending more than 100,000 refugees fleeing to Armenia. Europe, in dire need of natural gas from Azerbaijan, was powerless to do anything but watch.
Earlier this month, Michel blamed Russia, traditionally Armenia’s protector in the region, for the fiasco.
“It is clear for everyone to see that Russia has betrayed the Armenian people,” Michel told Euronews.
A similar pattern has played out in Kosovo, where the Europeans have been trying for years to broker a lasting peace between its Albanian and Serbian populations. The main sticking point there is the status of the northern part of Kosovo, bordering Serbia, where Serbs comprise a majority of the roughly 40,000 residents.
Borrell even appointed a “Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan Regional Issues.”
The incumbent in the post, Miroslav Lajčák, Slovakia’s former foreign minister, hasn’t had much luck. Though Lajčák was awarded the grandiose title more than three years ago, the parties are, if anything, further apart today than ever.
The EU has spent untold millions trying to stabilize the region, funding civil society organizations, schools and even a police force.
When tensions threatened to devolve into all-out combat following an incursion into northern Kosovo by Serbian militiamen last month, however, the EU was forced to resort to its tried-and-true crisis resolution mechanism: Uncle Sam.
”We get criticized for too little leadership in Europe and then for too much,” U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke said in 1998, after Washington dragged its reluctant European allies into an effort to halt the “ethnic cleansing” campaign unleashed by Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milošević in Kosovo.
”The fact is the Europeans are not going to have a common security policy for the foreseeable future,” Holbrooke added. “We have done our best to keep them involved. But you can imagine how far I would have got with Mr. Milošević if I’d said, ‘Excuse me, Mr. President, I’ll be back in 24 hours after I’ve talked to the Europeans.”’
Risky business
One needn’t look further than Ukraine for proof that his point is no less valid today. Though the EU has done what it can, providing tens of billions in financial, humanitarian and military aid, it’s not nearly enough to help Ukraine keep the Russians at bay. If it weren’t for American support, Russian troops would be stationed all along the EU’s eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s plight highlights the divide between Europe’s geostrategic aspirations and reality. Even though Europe didn’t anticipate Russia’s full-scale invasion, it had been talking for years about the need to improve its defense capabilities.
“We must fight for our future ourselves, as Europeans, for our destiny,” then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared in 2017.
And then nothing happened.
The reality is that it will always be easier to lean on Washington than to achieve European consensus around foreign policy and military capabilities.
That’s why Europe’s discussions about security sound more like fantasy football than Risk.
After Biden decided to send a U.S. aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the Hamas attack this week, Thierry Breton, France’s EU commissioner, said Europe needed to think about building its own aircraft carrier. Even in Brussels, the comment generated little more than comic relief.
Despite all the rhetoric about the necessity for Europe to play a more global role, not even the leaders of the EU’s biggest members, France and Germany, seem to be serious about it.
As Biden hunkered down in the White House Situation Room to discuss the crisis in Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were busy conferring in Hamburg.
After agreeing to redouble their efforts to cut red tape in the EU, they took a harbor cruise with their partners.
The leaders celebrated their successful deliberations on a local wharf with beer and Fischbrötchen, a Hamburg fish sandwich. The sun even came out.
Top officials from the United States and the EU met with their Russian counterparts for undisclosed emergency talks in Turkey designed to resolve the standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh, just days before Azerbaijan launched a military offensive last month to seize the breakaway territory from ethnic Armenian control.
The off-diary meeting marks a rare — if ultimately unsuccessful — contact between Moscow and the West on a major security concern, after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended regular diplomacy.
A senior diplomat with knowledge of the discussions told POLITICO the meeting took place on September 17 in Istanbul as part of efforts to pressure Azerbaijan to end its nine-month blockade of the enclave and allow in humanitarian aid convoys from Armenia. According to the envoy, the meeting focused on “how to get the bloody trucks moving” and ensure supplies of food and fuel could reach its estimated 100,000 residents.
The U.S. was represented by Louis Bono, Washington’s senior adviser for Caucasus negotiations, while the EU dispatched Toivo Klaar, its representative for the region. Russia, meanwhile, sent Igor Khovaev, who serves as Putin’s special envoy on relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Such high-level diplomatic interaction is rare. In March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came face to face on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in India — but Moscow insisted the exchange happened “on the move” and no negotiations were held.
In a statement provided to POLITICO, an EU official said “we believe it is important to maintain channels of communications with relevant interlocutors to avoid misunderstandings.” The official also observed Klaar had sought to keep lines open on numerous fronts over the “past years,” including in talks with Khovaev and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin.
A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department declined to comment on the meeting, saying only that “we do not comment on private diplomatic discussions.”
However, a U.S. official familiar with the matter who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters explained the discussions came out of an understanding that the Kremlin still holds sway in the region. “We need to be able to work with the Russians on this because they do have influence over the parties, especially as we’re at a precarious moment right now,” the American official said.
Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, sending tanks and troops into the region under the cover of heavy artillery bombardment. Karabakh Armenian leaders were forced to surrender following 24 hours of fierce fighting that killed hundreds on both sides. Since then, the Armenian government says more than 100,000 people have fled their homes and crossed the border, fearing for their lives.
Azerbaijan insists it has the right to take action against “illegal armed formations” on its internationally recognized territory, and has pledged to “reintegrate” those who have stayed behind. European Council President Charles Michel described the military operation as “devastating,” while Blinken has joined calls for Azerbaijan “to refrain from further hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide unhindered humanitarian access.”
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused neighboring Azerbaijan on Thursday of “ethnic cleansing” as tens of thousands of people fled the Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh into Armenia. Pashinyan predicted that all ethnic Armenians would flee the region in “the coming days” amid an ongoing Azerbaijani military operation there.
“Our analysis shows that in the coming days there will be no Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan told his cabinet members on Thursday, according to the French news agency AFP. “This is an act of ethnic cleansing of which we were warning the international community for a long time.”
Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it has been populated and run by ethnic Armenian separatists for several decades. About a week ago, Azerbaijan launched a lightning military offensive to bring the breakaway region — home to fewer than 150,000 people before the exodus began — fully under its control.
The breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, is seen in red.
Getty/iStockphoto
Over the last week, amid what Azerbaijan calls “anti-terrorist” operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, almost a quarter of its population has fled to Armenia.
Armenian government spokeswoman Nazeli Baghdasaryan said in a statement that some “65,036 forcefully displaced persons” had crossed into Armenia from the region by Thursday morning, according to AFP.
Some of the ethnic Armenian residents have said they had only minutes to decide to pack up their things and abandon their homes to join the exodus down the only road into neighboring Armenia.
“We ran away to survive,” an elderly woman holding her granddaughter told the Reuters news agency. “It was horrible, children were hungry and crying.”
Refugees load a truck in Goris, Armenia, Sept. 26, 2023, before leaving to the capital Yerevan. A continuous stream of vehicles crept along the only road out of the Nagorno-Karabakh region toward Armenia, carrying tens of thousands of refugees.
ALAIN JOCARD/AFP/Getty
Samantha Powers, the head of the U.S. government’s primary aid agency, was in Armenia this week and announced that the U.S. government would provide $11.5 million worth of assistance.
“It is absolutely critical that independent monitors, as well as humanitarian organizations, get access to the people in Nagorno-Karabakh who still have dire needs,” she said, adding that “there are injured civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh who need to be evacuated and it is absolutely essential that evacuation be facilitated by the government of Azerbaijan.”
The conflict between the Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan had simmered for years, but after the recent invasion was launched, the separatists agreed to lay down their arms, leaving the future of their region and their people shrouded in uncertainty.
Some 28,000 people —about 23% of the region’s population— have fled across the border since Azerbaijan defeated separatists who have governed the breakaway region for about 30 years in a swift military operation last week, according to Armenia’s government.
People load a truck as they prepare to leave their homes in Karabakh on Sept. 26. Hundreds of vehicles were heading to Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive against the separatist enclave.
SIRANUSH ADAMYAN/AFP, via Getty Images
Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh scrambled to flee as soon as Azerbaijan lifted a 10-month blockade on the region’s only road to Armenia. That blockade had caused severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel. While Azerbaijan has pledged to respect the rights of Armenians, many residents feared reprisals.
“I think we’re going to see the vast majority of people in Karabakh leaving for Armenia,” said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank. “They are being told to integrate into Azerbaijan, a country that they’ve never been part of, and most of them don’t even speak the language and are being told to dismantle their local institutions. That’s an offer that most people in Karabakh will not accept.”
The explosion took place as people lined up to fill their cars at a gas station outside Stepanakert, the region’s capital, late on Monday. The separatist government’s health department said that 13 bodies have been found and seven people have died of injuries from the blast. An additional 290 people have been hospitalized and scores of them remain in grave condition.
The cause of the blast remains unclear, but Nagorno-Karabakh presidential aide David Babayan said initial information suggested that it resulted from negligence, adding that sabotage was unlikely.
Armenia’s health ministry said a helicopter brought some blast victims to Armenia on Tuesday morning, and more flights were expected. The Russian peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh also provided helicopters to carry victims to Armenia.
Armenian authorities also said that they brought 125 bodies over to Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh for identification. The country’s Health Ministry clarified that all of those were killed in the fighting last week.
Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev said on X, formerly Twitter, that hospitals in Azerbaijan were ready to treat victims, but did not say if any had been taken there. Azerbaijan has sent in burn-treatment medicine and other humanitarian aid, he said.
Azerbaijan also said Tuesday that 33 tons of gasoline and 37 tons of diesel fuel were being sent into the region.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement that the U.S. urged humanitarian access to Nagorno-Karabakh. “The United States will continue to support those affected by the ongoing crisis as 28,000 people have crossed into Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh,” she said.
Watson said the U.S. would provide additional assistance to help local communities “provide shelter and essential supplies —such as hygiene kits, blankets, and clothing— to address the needs of those affected or displaced by violence in Nagorno-Karabakh.”
The Azerbaijani military routed Armenian forces in a 24-hour blitz last week, forcing the separatist authorities to agree to lay down weapons and start talks on Nagorno-Karabakh’s “reintegration” into Azerbaijan.
Gasoline has been in short supply in Stepanakert for months, and the explosion further added to the shortages, compounding anxiety among many residents about whether they will be able drive the 22 miles to the border.
Cars bearing large loads on their roofs crowded the streets of Stepanakert, and residents stood or lay along sidewalks next to heaps of luggage.
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities asked residents to hold off on leaving in order to keep the road clear for emergency services and said buses would be provided for those who want to leave.
Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region within Azerbaijan under the Soviet Union. Separatist sentiment grew in the USSR’s dying years and then flared into war. Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces, backed by the Armenian military, after a six-year separatist war that ended in 1994.
In another war in 2020, Azerbaijan took parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and completely reclaimed surrounding territory that it lost earlier. Under the armistice that ended the 2020 fighting, Russia deployed a peacekeeping force of about 2,000 to the region. Russia’s influence in the region has waned amid its war in Ukraine, emboldening Azerbaijan and its main ally, Turkey.
Armenian police officers walks near refugees as they queue in vehicles near the border town of Kornidzor, arriving from Nagorno-Karabakh, on September 26, 2023.
Alain Jocard | Afp | Getty Images
Thousands of ethnic Armenians on Tuesday fled their homes in the breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, as Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, publicly blamed Russia for failing to ensure the country’s security.
The mass exodus comes after a lightning military operation by Azerbaijan last week that saw it take full control of the region that has endured more than three decades of conflict.
The 24-hour offensive ratcheted up fears of major unrest throughout the Caucasus — the border region between southeast Europe and west Asia.
The U.S. has called for Azerbaijan to maintain a cease-fire and “take concrete steps” to protect the rights of civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
CNBC Politics
Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:
The landlocked territory of Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 and, with the support of Armenia, has fought two wars with Azerbaijan in the space of 30 years. The territory is currently home to an estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians.
Hundreds of cars, buses and open-top trucks were seen Tuesday snaking their way through the last Azerbaijani checkpoint to enter Armenia via the so-called Lachin Corridor, a mountain road that connects Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The first convoys of civilians leaving the region began on Sunday. As of Tuesday morning, at least 13,350 people were estimated to have entered Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, according to the Armenian government.
A refugee waits in a car with her baby as she waits to cross the border, leaving Karabakh to Armenia, in Lachin, on September 26, 2023.
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty Images
It said it would provide accommodation to all those fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh who have no place to live.
Separately, at least 20 people were reported to have been killed on Monday in an explosion at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh, according to local Armenian authorities. The cause of the blast remains unclear.
Local human rights official Gegham Stepanyan said via X, formerly known as Twitter, that the number of people injured in the explosion exceeded 200.
Armenia, which has typically looked to Russia as a security guarantor, said Azerbaijan’s military operation last week was an attempt to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, a charge it denies.
Speaking on Sunday in an address to the nation, Armenia’s prime minister said the likelihood was rising that people would seek to flee the Nagorno-Karabakh region “as the only way to save their lives and identity,” Reuters reported.
“Responsibility for such a development of events will fall entirely on Azerbaijan, which adopted a policy of ethnic cleansing, and on the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan said. He added that the government’s strategic partnership with Moscow was not enough to protect the country’s external security.
Russia on Monday hit back against Pashinyan’s assertions, saying his address “contained unacceptable insinuations against Russia and can only elicit repudiation.”
“The most recent utterances by Nikol Pashinyan confirm our earlier conclusions that the processes driven by Western influence and encouraged by official Yerevan are systemic rather than sporadic and detrimental to their own country and our alliance,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Despite decades of security backing from Russia, Armenian authorities have grown increasingly frustrated with what they perceive as a lack of willingness from the Kremlin to support the country.
Russia, alongside Armenia, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Formed in 2002, the Moscow-led security bloc is a military alliance composed of six post-Soviet states. Like NATO, the CSTO is based on the principle of collective defense, meaning that an attack on one member is recognized as an attack on all members.
Azerbaijan soldiers regulate the traffic as refugees wait in their cars to leave Karabakh for Armenia, at the in Lachin border, on September 26, 2023.
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty Images
Armenia’s prime minister suggested earlier in the year that the country was considering withdrawing from the CSTO due to a lack of support from Russia. More recently, Pashinyan admitted that it had been a strategic mistake to depend solely on the Kremlin to guarantee the country’s security.
Analysts told CNBC last week that Pashinyan’s grip on power was being “weakened by the minute” over the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, particularly given that the prime minister does not appear to enjoy either internal or external support.
KORNIDZOR, Armenia — Tons of humanitarian aid were en route on Saturday to Nagorno-Karabakh under the terms of a deal struck with the breakaway region’s Armenian leadership, Azerbaijan said.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on Saturday said it had dispatched its first shipment of food and fuel to reach the mountainous territory from Armenia since Azerbaijan launched its military offensive earlier this week. The convoy of four trucks drove across the Hakari Bridge, crossing the border amid warnings of a growing humanitarian crisis among the civilian population.
“We are looking at the different needs of the population,” a spokesperson for the ICRC told POLITICO. “And, underlining our role as a neutral intermediary, we are of course in dialog with all the decision-makers to be able to provide assistance that is much needed.”
The delivery marks only the second time civilian aid will reach Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia since Azerbaijan closed a checkpoint on the internationally recognized border after a firefight with Armenian troops on June 15. The ICRC has previously warned that without access, a humanitarian crisis could quickly unfold — and that situation has only been compounded by reports of mass displacements as Azerbaijani forces took territory inside the ethnic Armenian-held enclave in a 24-hour attack that began on Tuesday.
While the ICRC has been able to transfer wounded people to hospitals inside Nagorno-Karabakh, a mooted evacuation of the injured to Armenia has not yet materialized.
Azerbaijan has since said the local leadership must disband, its soldiers must lay down their weapons, and those living there will have to accept being governed as part of Azerbaijan, or else leave.
A U.S. congressional delegation visited the road leading to the Hakari Bridge moments before the ICRC convoy passed. Addressing reporters, Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, said Washington was deeply concerned by the unfolding crisis and called for support for civilians “suffering as a result of the blockade for many months.”
Shortly afterwards, a long convoy of Russian peacekeepers’ vehicles raced down the road toward Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan said that it had dispatched two tanker trucks full of fuel to the de facto capital, Stepanakert. Moscow’s personnel had also been prevented from regularly using the road since June, reportedly only bringing in essentials for their own troops by helicopter.
Speaking to POLITICO, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, said the guarantee for humanitarian aid access “once again shows the good intentions and seriousness of the Azerbaijan government to meet the needs and requirements of Armenian residents and also to ensure a safe and decent reintegration process.”
A special government working group has been established, he added, to address the humanitarian, economic and social aspects of absorbing Nagorno-Karabakh and its tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians into Azerbaijan after 30 years of self-declared independence. The leadership of the unrecognized state said on Wednesday that it had been forced to accept a Moscow-brokered surrender agreement as its troops were routed. Azerbaijan says Armenian fighters have already begun surrendering their weapons under the terms of the deal.
“Karabakh was a powder keg and the most militarized zone in the world,” Hajiyev added. “But now that is in the past. Under these circumstances, there are much better chances for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
However, concerns remain that tens of thousands of civilians trapped in the crisis-hit region could be forced to flee their homes, with local officials warning of “ethnic cleansing.”
According to Laurence Broers, an expert on the conflict at Chatham House, the question is now whether the apparent goodwill gestures solidify into something more permanent.
“We’ve got to end this stop-start humanitarian aid paradigm,” he said. “We need to have a long-term solution around access and, just as importantly, we have to have concentrated attention so that those who want to get out of Karabakh can still do so.”
London – A day after Azerbaijan launched an offensive in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, ethnic Armenians there said they agreed to ceasefire terms proposed by Russia. The terms include the complete disarming of local Karabakh forces.
But explosions could still be heard in Nagorno-Karabkh’s capital after the ceasefire came into effect, according to CBS News partner network BBC News. Below is a look at what’s behind the long-simmering conflict that has claimed thousands of lives in the region.
What is Nagorno-Karabakh?
The breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, is seen in red.
Getty/iStockphoto
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region that lies between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It sits within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders, but is predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the former Soviet Union, and as Soviet rule was coming to an end in the 1980’s, the autonomous legislature of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to join the country of Armenia. When the Soviet Union collapsed and Armenia and Azerbaijan gained statehood, Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence, intending to unify with Armenia. But war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands of people being displaced from their homes.
What’s behind the latest violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A 1994 ceasefire left Nagorno-Karabakh as a de facto independent region, but with close ties to Armenia. There were intermittent clashes until September 2020, when heavy fighting broke out for seven weeks, killing and wounding tens of thousands more people. Azerbaijan regained control over most of the territory it had lost, and only a small land corridor was left connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.
In recent months, tension has risen as Azerbaijan tightened its grip on that small land corridor in order to cement its military gains. Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh complained of shortages of medicine and food.
On Tuesday, Azerbaijan said it had launched a new “local anti-terrorist” military operation within the region, demanding the dissolution of the unrecognized pro-Armenian government. Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh have said that at least 32 people were killed in the most recent violence, and 200 more wounded.
Azerbaijan said officials would meet Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian representatives to discuss “issues of reintegration” on Thursday.
What roles do other major powers play?
The Minsk Group — part of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France — was created in 1994 to try to bring a permanent end to the conflict. It has the power to organize negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
After failed attempts by all three Minsk Group co-chairs, Russia finally brokered the 1994 ceasefire that halted the fighting, as well as eventually brokering a deal that stopped the renewed hostilities in 2020.
As part of that 2020 deal, Russia, which is committed by treaty to defend Armenia in the case of military escalation, said it would send peacekeepers to patrol the corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. But Armenia has complained in recent months that Russia hasn’t done enough to protect ethnic Armenians in the region, or to ensure the corridor remains open for essential goods to reach the population.
The United States has been vocal in its support for Armenia in recent years, but its NATO ally Turkey has pledged to support Azerbaijan should a conflict erupt in the region.
