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Directors are bringing laughs, tears — and an international lens.
For decades, awards season conversations about diversity have circled the same stage: the faces in front of the camera. Each Oscar cycle elicits scrutiny of who is — or isn’t — nominated in the acting categories. This year, the most vital shift in cinematic recognition is occurring behind the lens.
The best director race could present one of the most globally inclusive, stylistically eclectic and generationally diverse lineups in modern Academy history.
This isn’t the industry’s first attempt at inclusion. The 2010s belonged to a trio of Latino auteurs — Alfonso Cuarón, Alejandro González Iñárritu and Guillermo del Toro — who collectively claimed five directing statuettes between 2013 and 2018. Yet this year’s field suggests something more democratic and less concentrated in a single narrative.
Still, one figure looms large: eight-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson brings his meticulous eye to the Civil War epic “One Battle After Another,” which may clinch him a long-elusive win.
“It’s going to take something significant to take down the narrative that’s building around PTA,” a veteran studio publicist says. “Show the voters what it’s like to finally have the first Black directing winner, like Ryan Coogler, or the first woman to win twice — who was also the first woman of color to win before. How great would that feel?”
Chloé Zhao — the first woman of color to win best director for “Nomadland” — returns with the literary adaptation “Hamnet.” And Coogler expands his genre-defying vision with the horror-inflected “Sinners.”
Several women are well positioned as contenders. Along with Zhao, Kathryn Bigelow — the first woman to win best director — reemerges with the nuclear-war thriller “A House of Dynamite.” Tunisian filmmaker Kaouther Ben Hania’s harrowing “The Voice of Hind Rajab” could make her the first Arab woman nominated for directing. Norwegian Mona Fastvold also enters the conversation with the Shaker musical “The Testament of Ann Lee.”
Other international auteurs could join a promising slate: Iranian dissident Jafar Panahi’s revenge tale “It Was Just an Accident,” Brazilian provocateur Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent” and South Korean master Park Chan-wook’s dramedy “No Other Choice” — all might sneak in.
Genre variety is another hallmark of the race. Beyond “Sinners,” James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” brings blockbuster spectacle, while Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good” proves musicals can be prestige contenders. Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Del Toro’s “Frankenstein” represent the kind of formally daring work to which the Academy once seemed allergic.
Then there’s the generational shift. Josh Safdie aims to make a splash with the manic comedy “Marty Supreme” — and an Oscar winner out of Timothée Chalamet.
“The field is tough. It’s one of those years where I wish there were 10 director spots,” says an awards strategist.
While expanding the field isn’t an option, what distinguishes this moment is its refusal to tokenize. This isn’t one woman, one director of color, one international filmmaker filling designated slots. It’s a genuine proliferation of perspectives that underscores cinema’s global nature — and the arbitrary boundaries that have long defined an “Oscar movie.”
Director of photography Lukasz Zal, director Chloé Zhao and actors Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal on the set of their film HAMNET, a Focus Features release
Agata Grzybowska
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Casting
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jennifer Venditti
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Ne Zha 2” (A24)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Production Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) — Daniel Blumberg
Original Song
“Dream as One” from “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Clothed by the Sun” from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Documentary Feature
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” (Kino Lorber)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Frankenstein” (8); “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value” (6)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (31); Netflix (16); Focus Features (15); Neon (13); A24 (8)
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Clayton Davis
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