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Tag: automotive economic indicators

  • EPA proposes new tailpipe rules that could push EVs to make up two-thirds of new car sales in US by 2032 | CNN Politics

    EPA proposes new tailpipe rules that could push EVs to make up two-thirds of new car sales in US by 2032 | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday proposed ambitious new car pollution rules that could require electric vehicles to account for up to two-thirds of new cars sold in the US by 2032, in what would be one of the Biden administration’s most aggressive climate-change policies yet.

    The tailpipe standards would also have the effect of cutting planet-warming pollution from cars in half. Transportation accounts for nearly 30% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the US, according to the EPA.

    EPA Administrator Michael Regan called the regulations “the strongest-ever federal pollution standards for cars and trucks.”

    Regan touted the proposed rules on “CNN News Central” on Wednesday, claiming they would bring down costs for consumers and slash planet-warming pollution.

    “This is a future for everyone, and we’re starting to see all of the auto industry move in this direction,” Regan told CNN’s Sara Sidner, saying strong auto emissions rules have been part of President Joe Biden’s “vision from day one.”

    EPA officials said that they are considering several different emissions proposals, which could result in anywhere from a 64% to 69% electric vehicle adoption rate by early next decade. If approved, the emissions standards would start model year 2027 vehicles.

    The agency anticipates the new rules would mean EVs could also make up nearly half of all new medium-duty vehicles, like delivery trucks, by model year 2032. Officials are also proposing stronger standards for heavy-duty vehicles, including dump trucks, public utility trucks, and transit and school buses.

    One expert told CNN the Biden administration’s proposal is a pivotal moment for the US auto industry and consumers.

    “It’s a pretty big deal,” said Thomas Boylan, a former Environmental Protection Agency official and the regulatory director for the EV trade group Zero Emission Transportation Association. “This is really going to set the tone for the rest of the decade and into the 2030s in terms of what this administration is looking for the auto industry to do when it comes to decarbonizing and ultimately electrifying.”

    Regan and White House National Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi hailed the proposed regulations as a major climate win that would also save American consumers money in the coming years.

    Zaidi said that in the Biden administration’s first few years, the number of EVs on US roads had already tripled, while the number of public charging stations had doubled. And Zaidi vowed more to come, with funding from Biden’s infrastructure law for a network of EV charging stations combined with consumer tax credits.

    “Whether you measure today’s announcements by the dollars saved, the gallons reduced, or the pollution that will no longer be pumped into the air, this is a win for the American people,” Zaidi said.

    Yet even as the administration is writing aggressive regulations to push the market toward EVs, a Gallup poll released Wednesday suggests that Americans are not yet sold on the idea. Gallup polled more than 1,000 adults in the US last month and found that 41% said they would not buy an electric vehicle.

    Not only are EVs still more expensive than gas-powered cars, but consumers also haven’t yet grasped the climate benefits of transitioning to zero-emissions vehicles, the poll found. Six in 10 respondents said they believe EVs help the environment “only a little” or “not at all,” Gallup reported.

    Transportation is the biggest source of planet-warming pollution in the US, and light duty vehicles – the average cars Americans drive – account for 58% of those emissions. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last year that aggressive, pollution-slashing changes in the global transportation sector – including the transition to EVs – could reduce the sector’s emissions by more than 80%.

    Speaking on CNN, Regan also emphasized that switching to an EV would save consumers money in the long run.

    “Folks who purchase electric vehicles will see a cost savings over the lifespan of the vehicle, because they’re not having to buy gas, having to pay for maintenance,” Regan said. “So this is a huge opportunity for everyone in this country.”

    Other countries, including the EU and China, are moving faster toward adopting EVs. In the US, California has already proposed that zero-emissions vehicles make up 70% of new car sales by 2030, and 17 other states plan to follow California’s lead.

    That means much of the US car industry will already be transitioning ahead of the proposed federal rules.

    “I believe it’s pretty doable,” Margo Oge, chair of the International Council on Clean Transportation and a former Obama EPA official, said of the aggressive transition to EVs. “The industry is there. Europe is ahead of the US, China is ahead of Europe – and these companies are global companies.”

    New federal tax credits are coming next week that aim to help American consumers save up to $7,500 on an EV. But they have incredibly complex requirements for the auto industry – including that the cars’ batteries and components come from the US or countries it has a free-trade agreement with.

    Still, Boylan said the regulations are designed to gradually work over the next decade, by which time consumers should have far more electric vehicle options to choose from.

    “You’ve got the tax credits as the carrot,” Boylan said. The proposed tailpipe regulation “provides the stick to backstop these incentives and push the industry forward.”

    Regan told CNN the rules would be phased in gradually, giving auto makers and consumers years before they fully go into effect. During that time, the administration is focused on installing more EV charging stations and expanding access to $7,500 federal EV tax credits.

    “What we’re looking at is a ramp-up period,” Regan said on CNN. “We’re going to see a massive buildup over the next couple years, and we’re starting to see those electric vehicle sales numbers grow already.”

    The EPA will take public comment on the proposal before finalizing the rules in the coming months.

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  • After a steep fall, used car prices poised to rise again | CNN Business

    After a steep fall, used car prices poised to rise again | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The price of used cars has been falling steadily, and steeply, for much of the last year. Unfortunately for car buyers, that could be about to change.

    Wholesale prices for used cars being sold at auction have risen sharply in the last few weeks, according to industry data. Higher retail prices on used car dealer lots are likely to be close behind.

    According to data from Manheim, the largest wholesale automotive marketplace, prices jumped 4% in just the last two weeks, an unusually large increase in such a short time period. While many in the industry expected the drop in prices wouldn’t last, the sudden increase caught many by surprise.

    “We did not anticipate that prices would jump as much as they have,” said Chris Frey, senior industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, which owns Manheim. “It made my eyes jump out.”

    Dealers started pulling back on their inventory of used cars as prices were declining late last year and into January. Much of the decline began late last year as a larger supply of new cars became available for purchase.

    A shortage of parts, particularly computer chips, caused automakers to scale their production back far below the demand for new vehicles, and push potential new car buyers, even rental car companies, into the used car market. That shortage of new car inventory helped drive both new and use car prices to record levels earlier last year.

    But part supplies and computer chip inventory improved in the last half of 2022, and with that used car prices started to decline. In January used car prices were down 11.6% from the year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index, the government’s key inflation reading – the biggest 12-month decline since the depths of the Great Recession in early 2009.

    The busy selling season for used cars is only months away — it’s tied to when potential buyers get their tax refunds. Now dealers are scrambling to rebuild inventories, and that is driving up prices.

    The strong labor market, with employers unexpectedly adding more than 500,000 jobs in January, is also driving demand for used cars.

    “If you want to point at one factor that drives demand for cars, it’s jobs,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. “If you’ve got a job, you’ve got a car.”

    Part of the problem in the months ahead can be traced to the early days of the pandemic three years ago. The disruptions to the new car market at that time are about to be felt by today’s used car market.

    In March and April of 2020, auto plants across the nation were shut by stay-at-home orders, and many dealerships were closed. Demand for cars also fell off a cliff amid record job losses and millions of additional workers shifted to working from home rather than commuting.

    So the 2020 plunge in car sales meant that few people were signing up for three-year leases on new vehicles, contracts that would normally be coming to an end now and in turn feed those vehicles into the supply of used cars on the markets.

    “The repercussions of the pandemic are coming through,” Drury said. “The supply is definitely not going to be there.” The disruptions in the car markets in 2020 and early 2021 could affect used car prices much of the year.

    “We are entering a period of tight supply on 3- and 4-year-old vehicles, which make up the majority of [used] car sales,” said Michael Manley, CEO of AutoNation

    (AN)    , the nation’s largest car dealership, in a call with investors Friday. “And that’s going to impact wholesale prices and ultimately, retail prices.”

    It’s tough to know how long the rise in used car prices will last.

    The labor market and consumer spending is strong at the moment, but there are still worries about a possible recession. The Federal Reserve appears likely to keep raising interest rates, at least in the near term, which in turn will raise the cost of car loans, and for the financing that car dealers use when purchasing their own inventories.

    The drop in used car prices has been a major factor in the slowing of inflation, but a sustained rise in used car prices could make it more difficult for the Fed to pull back on rate hikes.

    Overall prices are up 6.4% over the last 12 months, according to CPI, but that reading has fallen for seven straight months. And prices would have risen 6.9% over the same 12 month period if used car prices had posted such a steep decline and instead just stayed unchanged.

    So broader economic conditions in the US economy are certain to have an effect on supply, demand and pricing of used cars, which makes forecasting future prices very difficult, said Frey.

    “I don’t think this latest increase is a blip. But I imagine prices could come down after spring and tax refunds land,” said Frey. But he added that forecasts are tough to make in the current market.

    “We’ve been calling for a 4% decline in prices from December last year to December this year,” Frey said. “We may have to revise that.”

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  • The steep plunge in used car prices — what it means, and what’s ahead | CNN Business

    The steep plunge in used car prices — what it means, and what’s ahead | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Tracking used car prices is enough to give anyone whiplash.

    Since the start of the pandemic and the resulting disruptions to new car supply chains first sent prices soaring, used car prices posted their largest annual increase on record – up 45% in the 12 months ending in June 2021, according to the Consumer Price Index – before swinging to a 12-month drop of 8.8% in the most recent reading for December.

    That was the biggest 12-month plunge in prices for used cars since June 2009, when General Motors and Chrysler were both in bankruptcy proceedings and the economy was hemorrhaging a half-million jobs a month.

    “It was a completely wild ride,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.com Inc., an online resources for inventory and information on cars.

    Data from Edmunds shows the average price of a used car purchase in December at $29,533, down nearly $1,600 from the record high of $31,095 reached in April 2022. Today’s average used car price is about the same as the average new car price as recently as 2010.

    While the prices of late model used cars are down only 5% off their peak according according to Edmunds, the price of older used cars, those five years or older, have fallen 15% or more from their peaks early in 2022.

    Experts say reasons for the decline include higher interest rates that make it more expensive to finance a car purchase, limiting demand. CarMax

    (KMX)    , the nation’s largest pure used car dealer, has warned that the combination of high prices and high interest rates is creating an affordability problem for many buyers, hurting overall demand.

    But the leading reason for the drop in used car prices is the increased supply of new cars.

    It was the lack of new car inventory that drove up prices. Parts shortages, especially for computer chips, had choked off production of new cars in much of 2022, causing the lowest level of full-year US new car sales since 2011.

    The low supply of new cars caused an even bigger jump in the average price of used cars, as buyers who would otherwise buy new vehicles turned to the used car market.

    “At one point it seemed that everyone who was going to buy new ended up buying used,” said Greg Markus, executive vice president of AutoLenders, parent company of New Jersey’s largest used car dealership chain.

    That included rental car companies, which before the pandemic normally bought about 10% or more new cars per year. With limited inventory of cars to sell, automakers essentially stopped making lower-priced fleet sales, and even rental car companies were forced to turn to the used car market.

    All that has started to change in recent months. Automakers are reporting more supplies of the chips they need, and are producing and selling more cars, including a return of fleet sales. Overall, sales were up 9% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, and nearly 6% higher than in the third quarter, according to Cox Automotive. And with more buyers finding the new cars they want, that means lower demand for used cars.

    Experts say part of the decline in used car prices is that the price increases were not sustainable and were partly driven by buyers at used car auctions overpaying for the limited supply of used vehicles.

    “There was nowhere for these prices to go but down,” said Markus.

    There could be more declines in used car prices in the months ahead, as new car inventories continue to build. One thing that could put a floor under the used car prices: late model used cars will likely be in short supply given the reduced new car production over the last three years.

    “The supply issue is still grim,” said Markus. Because of that, “I don’t think we’re getting down to 2019 levels,” he added.

    The run-up in used car prices was a major driver in the nation’s overall inflation rate, adding about a full percentage point to the overall increase in consumer prices from April of 2021 through May of 2022. Now it’s a factor helping to bring down the pace of inflation, shaving more than a third of a point off the overall rate in December.

    This is obviously good news for those wanting or needing to buy a used car, though it can have a negative effect on car buyers by reducing the value of vehicle they hope to trade in. Edmunds shows the average trade-in value in December down nearly $3,000, or 11%, to $22,605, from the record high hit in June of 2022.

    That drop in the value of trade-ins could also be a headwind on car prices by reducing what buyers are able to pay.

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  • EPA preparing to release strict vehicle emissions rules | CNN Politics

    EPA preparing to release strict vehicle emissions rules | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The US Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to release strict new proposed federal emissions standards for light-duty vehicles that, if implemented, would move the US car market decisively toward electric vehicles over the next decade.

    The EPA is considering emissions standards that could make up to two-thirds of new passenger vehicles sold in the US electric by 2032, according to a source familiar with the proposal.

    If implemented, the new greenhouse gas performance standards would start for light-duty vehicles that are model year 2027 and gradually increase through model year 2032.

    By 2032, the rules would ensure that 64% to 67% of all new-car sales in the US would be electric vehicles, according to the source.

    The EPA’s proposal, which was first reported by The New York Times, comes after California air regulators voted last year to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035 and set interim targets to phase these cars out.

    EPA spokesperson Tim Carroll did not comment on the specifics of the proposal but said the agency is working on developing new standards “to accelerate the transition to a zero-emissions transportation future, protecting people and the planet,” as directed by a previous executive order from President Joe Biden.

    “Once the interagency review process is completed, the proposals will be signed, published in the Federal Register, and made available for public review and comment,” Carroll said.

    The new rules could come as soon as Wednesday.

    The EPA proposal is a monumental step toward zero-emissions vehicles, coming as the US tries to keep up with other countries racing toward EV adoption, one expert told CNN.

    “I believe it’s pretty doable,” said Margo Oge, chair of the International Council on Clean Transportation and a former Obama EPA official. “The industry is there. Europe is ahead of the US, China is ahead of Europe, and these companies are global companies.”

    Oge noted that in the US, California is already proposing 70% new zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2030 and other states are planning to adopt California’s rules – meaning much of the US car industry will be transitioning ahead of any proposed federal rule.

    Still, the EPA’s proposal takes a different approach from California’s policy. Whereas California is mandating car companies sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles, the EPA would gradually raise greenhouse gas emissions standards to increasingly stringent levels from 2027 to 2032, pushing the industry toward electric vehicles to meet those high standards.

    The EPA rule would ensure that the rest of the country and the US car industry would follow California’s lead, Oge said.

    Biden has made electrifying the cars that Americans drive a key part of his climate goals. In 2021, the president set a new target that half of all vehicles sold in the US by 2030 would be battery electric, fuel-cell electric or plug-in hybrid.

    The US Treasury Department is set to release rules for new federal electric vehicle tax credits on April 18. While these tax credits are complex and could take time for consumers to take full advantage of, experts hope they will help accelerate the transition to EVs in the US.

    “Given the industry, the [Inflation Reduction Act] and what companies are doing globally, I just don’t see this number as being out of reach,” Oge said.

    The proposed EPA rules will go through a lengthy public comment process and could be changed before they are finalized.

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