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Tag: ask the meteorologist

  • Ask the Meteorologist: What does the worsening drought mean for us?

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    With the latest drought monitor released on Thursday, Feb. 19, the drought conditions continue to worsen across the state. We saw an increase in the severe drought coverage across the state from 68% of the state to 76%.

    Let’s take a look at some of the historic impacts and what this drought could mean for our area.

    The drought conditions are broken into 5 different categories: Abnormally dry, moderate drought, severe drought, extreme drought, and exceptional drought. Here are the current numbers across the state for each of the drought categories.

    This means that all of the state is abnormally dry, and of that dry area, nearly all of it is under a moderate drought. Over the three-quarters of the state is also seeing severe drought conditions, and 5% of the state is under an extreme drought.

    When we get into the severe drought category, which all of our area is experiencing, we start to see multiple prolonged impacts according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

    We can see dryland crop yields lower, swimming areas and boat ramps close, voluntary and mandatory water restrictions, and wildfires become difficult to extinguish.

    Parts of our area are now under an extreme drought, and even more impacts are possible including a decrease in hydropower if that lasts for a long period of time.

    Although we received some rain this past weekend, we still need roughly between 5-7″ of rain within the next month to break our drought. Some areas towards Moore county and into the Charlotte area need close to 9″.

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  • Ask the Meteorologist: How severe has this winter been in Central North Carolina?

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    So far, this winter has been the coldest in the Triangle and Sandhills since 2010-2011.  

    Monday night at 6:00 on WRAL, we’ll give a mid-winter report card and go more in depth as to where we stand and where we’re headed. 

    There is a tool developed by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center out of Purdue University that tries to show how severe a winter has been. 

    Using temperature, snowfall and snow depth, a score is assigned to each day.

    As those scores are accumulated, they fall within a few different ranges. These go from Mild to Moderate, Average to Severe and Extreme. 

    This is called the AWSSI – the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. It does not include wind, nor does it include mixed precipitation. 

    Its goal is to create a historical database and to compare from season to season.

    So far – for the winter of 2025-2026 – the AWSSI is at an “Average” level for the Triangle. 

    Compare that to the last several winters, and you’ll see they’ve been characterized as “Mild” or “Moderate” in our area.

    Meanwhile, we’re tracking a warming trend through at least February 20th. 

    Check here to see how many days will make it into the 70s in our area.

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  • Ask the Meteorologist: Why are spikes of ice forming in bird baths?

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    If you have a water feature like a bird bath, you might notice an ice spike poking out. I’ve seen this happen most often during prolonged stretches of cold weather. 

    You may even notice it occasionally if you have an ice cube tray in your freezer.

    The Garrett’s in Sanford sent us a picture via ReportIt.

    Almost every morning the last two weeks has been below freezing. And it hasn’t just been 32° or 31°. We’re talking hard freezes – teens and 20s. 

    How do ice spikes form?

    There was an easy-to-understand explanation that I found from Cal Tech that shows the dynamics at play. 

    Initially, water freezes on the top, edges and bottom of the ice cube tray or bird bath. 

    That leaves a small hole somewhere in the middle where the water is unfrozen. As ice expands at the bottom of the container, it expands and pushes the water up.

    That narrow area freezes and appears above the surface as an ice spike.

    If you have pictures of this, send them our way to ReportIt, just like the Garrett’s did!

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  • Ask the Meteorologist: How long could the ice last after the winter storm?

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    With ice accumulation expected with the weekend winter storm, there will be both travel and power concerns. But how long will the ice last even after the precipitation ends? Could it impact our commute for multiple days?

    The setup after the storm

    The area of low pressure that helped to bring wintry precipitation to our area later Saturday through early Monday will finally exit offshore by late morning on Monday.

    High pressure builds behind that low, bringing drier conditions, and another batch of very cold air and breezy conditions moves in by later Monday into early Tuesday. Our next front passes later Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing more cold air.

    The cold beyond the storm

    Lows by Monday morning will already be chilly in the mid-upper 20s Monday morning, so that ice that formed on the roads later Saturday into Sunday will stay in place.

    By the afternoon on Monday, highs could make it to the mid 30s in the Triangle with more sunshine, which would help some areas of ice to melt a bit. Shady areas will likely still have issues.

    If there is any moisture leftover on the roads later Monday into early Tuesday, it will very likely freeze over again as lows drop to the single digits and teens Tuesday morning with wind chill values approaching zero or dropping into the negatives.

    It will be very important to have a way to keep yourself warm, especially if there are ongoing power outages from the ice storm.

    With any ice lingering into Tuesday during the daytime, temps will be closer to freezing, so hopefully that sunshine in the afternoon can help to melt the ice more. Wednesday morning will be very cold again, but highs will be warmer in the afternoon, so we should see more improvements if there’s leftover ice.

    The bottom line

    Be sure to watch for updates from our team to know the latest on our road conditions and any ongoing power outages. It will be a quickly changing situation depending on exactly how much ice we see and how quickly the ice can melt after the storm.

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  • Ask the Meteorologist: Why is our sense of smell, sound enhanced on some cold mornings?

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    Let’s do a little time travel. 

    Go back to a cold morning. (It could even be when you woke up this Tuesday morning.)

    Do you recall smelling your neighbor’s fireplace? Maybe you heard a train and thought, “I didn’t know we lived by train tracks?!”

    You can blame temperature inversions in the lowest layers of the atmosphere for activating your senses. 

    What is a temperature inversion?

    A temperature inversion refers to when air just above the surface is warmer than the ground level.

    You’ll often find this on calm, clear and cold mornings in the fall, winter and spring. 

    The clear sky is like a bed without a blanket, so all of the day’s warmth can escape back up into space.

    This leads to quicker and more emphatic cooling at ground level. 

    Why temperatures cool so quickly on a clear and calm night.

    Meanwhile, above the surface, your temperatures can be several degrees higher. 

    Temperature inversions happen when air above the surface is warmer.

    In my first TV market, it was common for a town called Big Stone Gap to be 15-20° cooler than the nearest town- Wise. The reason? Big Stone Gap was 1,000 feet lower in elevation than Wise.

    What role do inversions play on our senses?

    The layer of warm air above the surface can be thought of as a strong defensive line, trapping the quarterback in the pocket and collapsing in on him. 

    If the QB tries to escape the pocket, he’s sacked immediately. 

    Football analogies aside, the warmer air above traps sounds, smells and even sights at ground level.

    This is why you’ll often smell smoke on mornings after a fireworks display, bonfire, etc. It’s also why you might hear train horns blowing or animals howling in the distance. 

    How temperature inversions trap smells and sounds.

    One of my favorite examples of this in any movie is early on in the Polar Express. I’m sure they were totally thinking of meteorology when creating that (ha!).

    Why do inversions matter with winter precipitation?

    Inversions play a big role on our winters, too.

    It’s often tough for us to get an all snow event when forecasting winter weather. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know how quickly things can change to sleet and freezing rain. 

    Our relatively close proximity to the Atlantic and the warm Gulf Stream gives us that layer of warm air over cold surface air, leading to an annoying mix of precipitation.

    Temperature inversions can influence precipitation types.

    What can we expect this coming winter?

    WRAL meteorologists will release the 2025-2026 winter outlook on WRAL’s 6:00 p.m. newscast, Monday, November 24, 2025.

    Elizabeth Gardner and I will also discuss things in further detail on the WRAL YouTube page.

    —

    Have questions about the weather and how it works?

    Send me an email with the subject line ‘Ask the Meteorologist:’ to cmichaels@wral.com.

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