Here’s a thought for investors: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 5% or more would that wreck the economy and stock prices ?
The U.S. stock market has been rallying to start 2023, clawing back a big chunk of the painful losses from a year ago. The bullish tone has been linked to a view that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates this year to prevent a recession, reversing one of its quickest rate-increasing campaigns in history.
Doomsday investors, including hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer, have been warning against that outcome. Singer thinks a credit crunch and deep recession may be necessary to purge dangerous levels of froth in markets after an era of near-zero interest rates.
Another scenario might be that little changes: Credit markets could tolerate interest rates that prevailed before 2008. The Fed’s policy rate could increase a bit from its current 4.75%-5% range, and stay there for a while.
“A 5% interest rate is not going to break the market,” said Ben Snider, managing director, and U.S. portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a phone interview with MarketWatch.
Snider pointed to many highly rated companies which, like the majority of U.S. homeowners, refinanced old debt during the pandemic, cutting their borrowing costs to near record lows. “They are continuing to enjoy the low rate environment,” he said.
“Our view is, yes, the Fed can hold rates here,” Snider said. “The economy can continue to grow.”
Profits margins in focus
The Fed and other global central banks have been dramatically increasing interest rates in the aftermath of the pandemic to fight inflation caused by supply chain disruptions, worker shortages and government spending policies.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Friday warned that interest rates might need to increase even more than markets currently anticipate to restrain the rise in the cost of living, reflected recently in the March consumer-price index at a 5% yearly rate, down to the central bank’s 2% annual target.
The sudden rise in interest rates led to bruising losses in stock and bond portfolios in 2022. Higher rates also played a role in last month’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank after it sold “safe,” but rate-sensitive securities at a steep loss. That sparked concerns about risks in the U.S. banking system and fears of a potential credit crunch.
“Rates are certainly higher than they were a year ago, and higher than the last decade,” said David Del Vecchio, co-head of PGIM Fixed Income’s U.S. investment grade corporate bond team. “But if you look over longer periods of time, they are not that high.”
When investors buy corporate bonds they tend to focus on what could go wrong to prevent a full return of their investment, plus interest. To that end, Del Vecchio’s team sees corporate borrowing costs staying higher for longer, inflation remaining above target, but also hopeful signs that many highly rated companies would be starting off from a strong position if a recession still unfolds in the near future.
“Profit margins have been coming down (see chart), but they are coming off peak levels,” Del Vecchio said. “So they are still very, very strong and trending lower. Probably that continues to trend lower this quarter.”
Net profit margins for the S&P 500 are coming down, but off peak levels
Refinitiv, I/B/E/S
Rolling with it, including at banks
It isn’t hard to come up with reasons why stocks could still tank in 2023, painful layoffs might emerge, or trouble with a wall of maturing commercial real estate debt could throw the economy into a tailspin.
Snider’s team at Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.21%
to end the year around 4,000, or roughly flat to it’s closing level on Friday of 4,137. “I wouldn’t call it bullish,” he said. “But it isn’t nearly as bad as many investors expect.”
“Some highly levered companies that have debt maturities in the near future will struggle and may even struggle to keep the lights on,” said Austin Graff, chief investment officer at Opal Capital.
Still, the economy isn’t likely to “enter a recession with a bang,” he said. “It will likely be a slow slide into a recession as companies tighten their belts and reduce spending, which will have a ripple effect across the economy.”
However, Graff also sees the benefit of higher rates at big banks that have better managed interest rate risks in their securities holdings. “Banks can be very profitable in the current rate environment,” he said, pointing to large banks that typically offer 0.25%-1% on customer deposits, but now can lend out money at rates around 4%-5% and higher.
“The spread the banks are earning in the current interest rate market is staggering,” he said, highlighting JP Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, +7.55%
providing guidance that included an estimated $81 billion net interest income for this year, up about $7 billion from last year.
Del Vecchio at PGIM said his team is still anticipating a relatively short and shallow recession, if one unfolds at all. “You can have a situation where it’s not a synchronized recession,” he said, adding that a downturn can “roll through” different parts of the economy instead of everywhere at once.
The U.S. housing market saw a sharp slowdown in the past year as mortgage rates jumped, but lately has been flashing positive signs while “travel, lodging and leisure all are still doing well,” he said.
U.S. stocks closed lower Friday, but booked a string of weekly gains. The S&P 500 index gained 0.8% over the past five days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.42%
advanced 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.35%
closed up 0.3% for the week, according to FactSet.
Investors will hear from more Fed speakers next week ahead of the central bank’s next policy meeting in early May. U.S. economic data releases will include housing-related data on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, while the Fed’s Beige Book is due Wednesday.
The contest to become the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nominee is heating up, with Nikki Haley, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and longshot candidate Vivek Ramaswamy each announcing runs since the beginning of the year, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson joining the fray in a Sunday-show appearance on April 2.
And former President Donald Trump appears to be getting a political lift from a Manhattan district attorney’s case against him, though some analysts don’t see the boost lasting.
Biden gave a fresh hint on Monday about his re-election bid at the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, saying in an interview with Al Roker of NBC’s “Today” show that he aims to take part in “at least three or four more Easter egg rolls. Maybe five. Maybe six.”
“I’m planning on running, Al, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet,” the president said.
Democrats largely have closed ranks behind President Joe Biden ahead of next year’s election, but he isn’t completely without challengers for the party’s nomination.
Author and activist Marianne Williamson has thrown her hat in the ring, pursuing a longshot bid that comes after her 2020 presidential campaign fizzled out before the Iowa caucuses.
Why isn’t she falling in line and supporting her party’s incumbent president? What’s her pitch to people who think she’s not a serious candidate? What are her top economic proposals?
Williamson, 70, tackled those questions and more in a phone interview earlier this week.
Our Q&A with the Democratic presidential hopeful has been edited for clarity and length.
MarketWatch: In a nutshell, could you explain why you’re running for president?
Williamson: I’m running for president because I believe that some things need to be said and some changes need to be made, in order to repair some serious damage that’s been done to our democracy, to our country, to our people and to our environment over the last 50 years.
MarketWatch: You’ve talked about running to address “systemic economic injustices endured by millions of Americans” because of the “undue influence of corporate money on our political system.” What do you see as the top examples of that?
Williamson: During the 1970s, the average American worker had decent benefits, could afford a home, could afford a yearly vacation, could afford a car and could afford to send their child to college. In the last 48 years, there has been a $50 trillion transfer of wealth from the bottom 90% to the top 1% of Americans. That transfer has decimated our middle class. We are now at a point where if you are among 20% of Americans, then the economy’s doing pretty well for you. But, unfortunately, that 20% is surrounded by a vast sea of economic despair. We have 60,000 people in the United States who die every year because they can’t afford healthcare XLV, -1.11%,
one in four Americans living with a medical debt, and 18 million Americans unable to fill the prescriptions that their doctors give to them.
If you are in the club in America, if you are making it in America — and I have sold some books, so I understand the high side of the free market and have benefited, and I’m grateful for that — but no conscious persons wants to feel that they create wealth at the expense of other people having a chance. That is not American. It’s not what the American Dream is supposed to be.
I’m not trying to whitewash and romanticize American capitalism before this era. I’m not saying we were ever perfect, but it does seem to me that when I was growing up, the social consensus is that we were supposed to try. We knew that the higher good was that there would be this balance between individual liberty, including economic liberty, and a concern for the common good. But today concern for the common good has become almost derided as some quaint notion, and that we shouldn’t really give much more than lip service to it. And that’s a lot of human suffering that occurs because of that change in the social contract.
MarketWatch: Here’s kind of a two-part question. What would be your top economic priorities, and how in particular would you address high inflation and the recent banking KBE, -1.65% crisis?
Williamson: I’d like to see universal healthcare. I want to see tuition-free college at state colleges and universities, which is what we had in this country until the 1960s. There should be free childcare. There should be paid family leave. There should be guaranteed sick pay and a livable wage. And I think Americans are waking up to the fact that those things that I just mentioned are considered moderate issues in every other advanced democracy. They should not be considered left-wing fringe issues. They are granted to the citizens of every other advanced democracy.
That was your first question. The second has to do with high inflation. A lot of that high inflation has to do with price gouging by huge corporations, whether it has to do with food companies, transportation companies and so forth. All of those CEOs should testify before Congress and talk about the ways that they have — for the sake of their own profits — gouged the American people, particularly at such a time as this. And this is what happens when we normalize such a lack of conscience and such a lack of ethics within our system.
In terms of what happened with the bank in Silicon Valley SIVBQ, -3.39%,
which is what your third question was, right? I think the depositors should be made whole, but the bank executives who were taking multimillion-dollar bonuses for themselves, both before and right after the crash, they certainly should not get those bonuses. And also it’s concerning that some of the tech investors that would benefit the most from those deposits were the ones who caused the run on the bank. I don’t think that they should receive the benefit of what happens when those deposits are made whole. But the average depositor absolutely should be made whole in such cases.
MarketWatch: You mentioned free tuition and child care. Where would the funding for that come from?
Williamson: The funding should come, first of all, from taxation. The 2017 tax cut in this country was a $2 trillion tax cut, and 83 cents of every dollar went to the highest-earning corporations and individuals. Now that tax cut also included the middle-class tax cut, and the middle-class tax cut was good.
That tax cut for the highest earners should be repealed, but the middle-class tax cut should be put back in immediately.
Secondly, we should stop all the corporate subsidies. Why are we giving subsidies to these companies that are already making multibillions of dollars in profit and often then price gouging the American people?
Third, I believe there should be a wealth tax. If somebody has $50 million, I don’t have any problem with their paying an extra 2% tax. And if they have $1 billion, let them pay another 1%. Somebody with a $50 million portfolio, much less $1 billion in assets, would not even feel that change, but the changes in people’s lives that would be created by those shifts would be huge.
MarketWatch: Your campaign often gets described as a real longshot bid. Why are you running when so many people say you have a low chance for success?
Williamson: Well, certainly Donald Trump was considered a longshot. For that matter, when he began Barack Obama was considered a longshot. Surely we remember when Hillary Clinton was considered a shoo-in.
MarketWatch: A recent Monmouth University poll of Democratic voters found 11% had a favorable view of you, 16% had an unfavorable view, 21% had no opinion, and 52% had not heard of you. How do you win over those voters who have an unfavorable view, and how do you reach the folks who haven’t heard of you?
Williamson: Well, there was a poll that came out last week that put me at 10%, including 18% with independents and 21% with people under 30.
It’s very difficult for someone like myself to get the message out when you have such institutional resistance to my even being in the conversation, and that is displayed in various ways. But there is independent media today. God knows there’s TikTok, where my information seems to be doing quite well.
This early, no candidate should be allowing the polls to determine their path forward. I didn’t go into this expecting the approval of institutional forces. And I, as a matter of fact, expected the kind of resistance that I’ve received, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is that a certain agenda be placed before the American people, and I am providing that option — the option of that alternative agenda.
I believe that agenda is the way for the Democrats to win in 2024. But even more importantly, I think it’s the agenda that will lead to the repair of this country.
MarketWatch: You mentioned TikTok, and that has been a hot topic in Washington, D.C., in recent weeks. Do you have a view on the Democratic and Republican proposals to ban TikTok in the U.S.?
Williamson: I think the United States government does need to be concerned with tech XLK, -1.00%
surveillance, but I wish they were as concerned when it comes to American-run companies as when it comes to Chinese. It’s a serious issue, it’s a valid issue — the whole issue of surveillance. But it’s a gnarly issue as well, and rushing to shut something down, which is so obviously a platform depended on by millions and millions of Americans for information sharing, is never something that should be done lightly.
MarketWatch: Some Americans may know you only for your spiritual work, and these folks may not think you’re a serious presidential candidate. The White House press secretary indicated she’s in that camp. What’s your message to win those folks over?
Williamson: First of all, I don’t think of my campaign as quote-unquote trying to win anyone over. There’s something that I read years ago that has always guided my work: “If there’s something you genuinely need to say, there’s someone out there who genuinely needs to hear it.” I am speaking to people who I know agree with me. I wouldn’t be doing this if I weren’t aware that millions of people agree with me.
I think it’s very sad that the president would allow a presidential press podium to be used to mock a political opponent, and I think that many people were and are offended by that. This is a democracy. We should have as many voices out there as possible. We should have as many people running in an election as feel moved. Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas. There are ideas on the left and ideas on the right. There are ideas all across the spectrum, and this is a point in American history where we as Americans should hear them all.
MarketWatch: What do you think are some of the main things that President Biden has gotten right, and in what areas has he gone wrong?
Williamson: Well, the first thing he did right was he defeated Donald Trump. The president has taken an incremental approach to America’s problems, and I believe that he does wish to alleviate the suffering of many people whose lives are affected by some deeply unjust systems. But I don’t think that the alleviation of stress is enough right now. We need fundamental economic reform.
We also need a serious answer to climate change, and the president’s approval of the Willow project is not that. The president has said that he recognizes that climate change is an existential crisis, and yet he has given more oil CL00, +0.34%
permits than even Donald Trump did, and he has approved the Willow project.
The Democratic House and Senate — they did cut child poverty in half with the child tax credit, but then, when that expired six months later, they didn’t bother to permanentize it.
These are the kinds of half-measures and incremental measures which are not enough to change the fundamental economic patterns in this country that lead to so much chronic economic anxiety and despair.
Joe Biden is shown in conversation in August 2019 with Marianne Williamson during an event for Democratic presidential candidates in Clear Lake, Iowa.
AFP via Getty Images
MarketWatch: One thing that comes up often with President Biden is his age, which is 80, while you’re 70. Do you think his age should be a concern, or is it ageism to bring it up?
Williamson: I think the individual has to consider this themselves. I have a problem, of course, contributing to the conversation because of the issue of ageism. But on the other hand, everybody can see for themselves what they can see for themselves.
I can only say if I were 80, I wouldn’t be running. But you know, I will not take potshots at the president, and I think that veers into potshots.
MarketWatch: Let’s talk about taking on Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis or whomever the Republican nominee ends up being. Why do you think you’re the Democrat who could end up beating one of them?
Williamson: Republicans are going to throw some big lies at the Democrats in 2024, and the only way that we’re going to defeat them, in my opinion, is to tell some big truths. Franklin Roosevelt said we would not have to worry about a fascist takeover in this country as long as democracy delivered on its promises. Democracy has not delivered on its promises. The only way to beat Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis in 2024 is to propose an agenda in which democracy once again delivers on its promises to the majority of the American people. And that would mean the issues I mentioned before: universal healthcare, tuition-free college, free child care, a guaranteed livable wage and paid family leave. Those are given to the citizens in every other advanced democracy, and there is no good reason whatsoever why they are not delivered to the average citizen in the United States.
MarketWatch: There are Democrats who could be challenging President Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination, but they aren’t and instead they’re supporting him. Why aren’t there more efforts in the party to get people to run for president?
Williamson: Well, you’d have to ask them why they’re not running. But there’s clearly a trope that the field should clear, and everybody should simply get in line with the opinion of the Democratic establishment that Biden is the man because they have decided so. I don’t see it that way. I believe the Democratic primary voters — and independent voters and anyone else, if it’s an open primary — they should decide who the Democratic candidate is. To me, that’s what democracy is. That’s what elections are about.
MarketWatch: The Democratic Party is not expected to hold presidential primary debates for 2024. What can you do to change that and get some time on a debate stage?
Williamson: Well, I hope to have a successful campaign. I hope to have high poll numbers. I hope to have a lot of people in those primary states yelling foul. It’s a government of the people, by the people, for the people. The American people should hear what their options are, and that’s what a debate would be. If enough people realize that and believe it and make laws about it, then that is what will happen.
I think sometimes there’s a kind of learned powerlessness on the part of the American people today. We forget the radicalism of the American experiment, which is that the governance of this country is supposed to be in our hands. But the American people have been trained to expect too little and almost trained to give up the power of independent thought. I hope that my campaign and other things that occur in this campaign season will awaken people, and I think a certain kind of awakening is happening already.
MarketWatch: We’re a financially focused publication, so here’s a question along those lines. I looked at your financial disclosure from your 2020 presidential run. It showed some investments in big public companies like Apple AAPL, -0.58%
and Mastercard MA, +0.27%
…
Williamson: Wait, what are you talking about?
MarketWatch: That’s from your 2019 executive-branch personnel public financial disclosure report. It shows investments in various stocks and funds. The question — for our readers who are investors or people saving for retirement — is could you describe your own approach to investing and preparing for retirement?
Williamson: Socially responsible investing, and that’s why I said, “Whoa, what?” Because I believe in investing in socially responsible companies.
MarketWatch: One last question: What else would you like people to know?
Williamson: America has some serious problems, but we have infinite potential to solve those problems. We need to revisit our first principles, as John Adams said, and find that place in our hearts where, as Americans, as adults in this generation, we recognize that this profound idea of American democracy is put in our hands for safekeeping. And that doesn’t just give us rights; it gives us responsibilities. The political system in the United States speaks to us too often like we’re children, like we’re seventh-graders. Our public dialogue is too often on this kind of seventh-grade level. This is not a time to be an immature thinker, and it’s not a time to get into mean-spiritedness or cynicism either. If we allow ourselves to rise to the occasion, no matter what our politics are, we’re going to repair what has been broken, and we are going to initiate a new beginning. I think that’s possible. Other generations have done it, and we can do it, too.
MarketWatch: Thank you for being available to chat.
While it will be more expensive for banks to deploy capital this year, talk of a possible credit crunch tied to higher interest rates remains overblown, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday.
“Obviously, there’s going to be a little bit of tightening, and most of that will be around certain real-estate things,” Dimon said, according to a transcript of JPMorgan’s first-quarter earnings call with analysts. “You’ve heard it from real-estate investors already, so I just look at that as a kind of thumb on the scale. It just [means] the fast conditions will be a little bit tighter, [which] increases the odds of a recession. That’s what that is. It’s not like a credit crunch.”
In real estate, banks have been hit both by a drop in mortgage demand due to higher interest rates as well as a looming wall of debt from office properties affected by slack demand for space. For its part, JPMorgan said Friday that its office-sector exposure is less than 10% of its portfolio and is focused in dense urban markets.
On the call, analyst John McDonald of Autonomous Research asked, “There’s a narrative out there that the industry could see a credit crunch. Banks are going to stop lending, and even [Federal Reserve Chair] Jay Powell mentioned that as a risk.”
Dimon responded: “Yeah, I wouldn’t use the word ‘credit crunch’ if I were you.”
Dimon was also asked about the regulatory landscape for banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.
“Look, we’re hoping that everyone just takes a deep breath and looks at what happened and the breadth and depth of regulations already in place,” Dimon said. “Obviously, when something happens like this you should adjust, think about it.”
Down the road, Dimon said, he could see potential limitations on held-to-maturity assets and perhaps more total loss-absorbing capacity for certain banks, as well as more scrutiny around interest-rate exposure.
“It doesn’t have to be a revamp of the whole system — just recalibrating things the right way,” Dimon said. “The outcome you should want is very strong community and regional banks. And certain [drastic] actions … could actually make them weaker. So that’s all it is.”
JPMorgan is also expecting to absorb higher capital requirements under the so-called Basel IV international banking measures, as well as an assessment to banks of the costs of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., he said.
U.S. stocks closed lower Friday as investors digested strong big bank earnings, weak retail sales, and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official, but all three major benchmarks booked weekly gains.
How did stocks trade?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.42%
shed 143.22 points, or 0.4%, to close at 33,886.47.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.21%
fell 8.58 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 4,137.64.
Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.35%
declined 42.81 points, or 0.4%, to end at 12,123.47.
For the week, Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.3%. The Dow booked a fourth straight week of gains in its longest win streak since October, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further,” Waller said Friday during a speech in San Antonio, Texas.
Waller’s comments were “pretty hawkish,” said Jackie Rogowicz, an investment analyst at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in a phone interview. She said she’s expecting the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in May, and at least at this stage, sees some potential for another rate hike in June.
Inflation data released earlier in the week showed a larger-than-expected slowdown in wholesale prices, while so-called core consumer-price inflation remained stubbornly high as it ticked higher to a rate of 5.6% year-over-year.
Marvin Loh, senior global strategist at State Street, said Waller’s comments were a departure from the more dovish tone evinced by other senior Fed officials since the Fed’s March policy meeting.
“This is one of the more hawkish comments over the past week. A lot of the Fed speak has leaned toward ‘one and done’ in terms of rate hikes,” Loh said during a phone call with MarketWatch.
Meanwhile, fresh economic data on Friday showed sales at retailers, a critical component of consumer spending, dropped 1% in March, declining for the fourth time in the past five months. The decline was sharper than the contraction that economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had anticipated.
A popular consumer-sentiment survey released Friday showed respondents’ outlook has risen slightly to 63.5 in April, rebounding from a four-month low, but also reflected slightly higher anxiety about inflation.
While consumer spending hasn’t fallen off a cliff, it has continued to weaken from the elevated levels seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, economists said.
“The cumulative effect of historically high inflation, rising interest rates, and reduced access to credit is already taking a toll on consumers’ ability and willingness to spend,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY Parthenon, in emailed commentary. “And the full effect of recent banking-sector turmoil and the associated tightening in credit conditions has yet to be felt.”
The first bank earnings reports since regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank failed last month offered some optimism though. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, +7.55%,
the U.S.’s biggest bank, jumped after it reported earnings and revenue well above forecasts.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy looked “generally healthy,” but warned the coast was not completely clear. “The storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks,” he said.
The “big banks are well-capitalized,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in a phone interview. “They benefited from some deposit inflows in March.”
Investors have been anxious to see how the banks would perform as analysts have been cutting earnings estimates for both large and regional banks in the wake of the crisis.
“So far it seems the numbers are coming in pretty good,” said State Street’s Loh. However, “we have to wait for more smaller lenders to start reporting” to get a better picture of how banks are doing in the wake of last month’s turmoil.
Companies in focus
Shares of Boeing Co. BA, -5.56%
dropped 5.6% after the jet maker warned late Thursday that a manufacturing hang-up could cause problems for production and delivery of “a significant number” of 737 Max planes.
U.S.-listed shares of Curaleaf Holdings Inc. CURLF, -6.69%
Shares of General Electric Co. GE, +1.21%
rose 1.2% after bullish UBS analyst Chris Snyder raised his price target by 15%. The company’s shares have surged this year thanks to a planned spin off.
There is currently no dispute over who wears the crown of world’s wealthiest person. It isn’t Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk.
The net worth of Bernard Arnault, the founder and chairman and chief executive officer of LVMH Moet-Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE MC, +1.01%,
stood at $210 billion as of Thursday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index. That makes him the world’s richest person by that marker, with an increasingly comfortable lead over Tesla’s TSLA, -0.48%
Musk, who also leads SpaceX and Twitter and whose wealth stands at $180 billion. At times the two have been in a neck-and-neck race for that top spot.
LVMH shares closed at a record €883 on Thursday, helping lift the French CAC-40 PX1, +0.52%
to an all-time high. That followed forecast-beating first-quarter sales from the luxury giant, thanks to returning China shoppers as COVID-19 restrictions eased, and rebounding international travel that drove duty-free sales. Up 7% so far this week, LVMH shares rose another 0.5% on Friday to €888.70.
The stock surge padded Arnault’s fortune by $11.6 billion on Thursday, the second-biggest single-day gain ever for him and a fresh record fortune, according to Bloomberg. Musk didn’t do badly.
He increased his wealth by $3.83 billion on Thursday, before Tesla and U.S. equities SPX, -0.21%
generally retreated a bit on Friday.
LVMH owns jewelers Bulgari and Tiffany, alongside fashion houses Louis Vuitton and Dior. Results released late Wednesday showed the luxury standard-bearer beating expectations across every division, led by fashion and leather goods, the latter of which is significant, Berenberg analysts observed.
“As the most profitable division, this also bodes well for margin development,” said Berenberg analyst Graham Renwick, in a note to clients on Friday.
“This performance sets the standard for [first quarter] luxury reporting and gives encouragement on China’s recovery from pandemic disruption. Overall, we think these results continue to demonstrate LVMH’s strong momentum and best-in-class execution — again reaffirming its high quality and strong track record, which we believe investors are favoring in this uncertain macro environment,” said Renwick, who reiterated a buy rating on LVMH’s stock and lifted his share-price target to €960.
The luxury sector got another confidence boost on Friday, as Hermès International SCA RMS, +1.52% revealed sales momentum in the first quarter, driven by a bump in tourism and new stores. The maker of the legendary Birkin handbag saw a 23% annual increase in first-quarter sales and backed “ambitious” organic revenue-growth targets.
Luxury stocks have seen an impressive rebound in 2023, after a weak 2022 — LVMH shares fell 6% in 2022 as travel restrictions in China and overall economic worries weighed on shoppers.
LVMH shares are up 30% so far in 2023, with Hermès up 36% and Christian Dior SE CDI, +1.46%
and Gucci owner Kering SA KER, +1.30%
up 26% and 21%, respectively.
As for Musk, his wealth is divided among his businesses. While Tesla accounts for $76 billion, Bloomberg estimates his share of SpaceX is worth $49 billion, and his share of Tesla is worth nearly $10 billion. He paid $44 billion for Twitter last year, after an attempt to wriggle out of the deal, and its current valuation is a matter of much speculation. Musk has fired thousands of employees and claimed this week that a return to profitability is now just around the corner.
Tesla is slated to report quarterly results next week, and some analysts aren’t optimistic due to persistent price cuts of its models.
The U.S. economy could slip into recession given the fast pace of interest rate rates over the past year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Friday.
“There is no way you can look at current conditions around the U.S. and not think that some mild recession is on the table as a possibility,” Goolsbee said, in an interview on CNBC.
At the same time, while inflation is coming down, there is “clear stickiness” in some categories of prices, he said.
Goolsbee said he is focused on whether there is a credit crunch in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.
The Chicago Fed president, who is a voting member of the Fed’s interest rate committee, said he wanted to see more data before deciding what to do at the Fed’s next meeting on May 2-3 .
“What I am looking at quite clearly coming into the next FOMC meeting is what’s happening on credit…how much of a credit crunch is there,” he said.
“Let’s be mindful that we’ve raised a lot. It takes time for that to work its way through the system,” Goolsbee said.
The March retail sales report, released earlier this morning, might be a sign of further slowing in the economy, he said. The government reported a 1% drop in retail sales, the biggest decline since November.
“If you add financial stress on top of that, let’s not be too aggressive,” he said.
The numbers: Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a shift in consumer-spending habits.
Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues about the strength of the economy. Sales had been forecast to drop 0.4%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.
Receipts shrank a smaller 0.3% if auto dealers and gas stations are excluded. Car and gasoline purchases exaggerate overall retail spending.
Key details: Sales in March posted the biggest decline in four months, largely because of lower auto and gasoline sales.
A late Easter holiday might have also shifted some sales into April that normally would have taken place in March, economists say.
Sales of new vehicles and parts, an up-and-down category, fell a sharp 1.6% last month.
Receipts at gas stations declined 5.5% largely because of lower oil prices. It’s a good thing when Americans spend less on gas, however.
Americans are likely to pay more for gas in April, though, after the oil cartel OPEC cut production and prices surged.
Even after setting aside car dealers and gas stations, retail sales were weak. Sales fell in most major categories, including home centers, electronics stores and department stores.
The only segment to stand out: Internet retailers. Sales jumped 1.9%.
One category economists watch closely is bars and restaurants, the only service sector in the retail report. Restaurant receipts rose a tepid 0.1% last month after a 1.6% decline in February.
Restaurant sales tend to rise when the economy is healthy and Americans feel secure in their jobs. Sales slack off during times of economic distress.
Big picture: Retail sales haven’t fallen off a cliff, but they also aren’t rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.
How come? High inflation has eaten away at household incomes. Government pandemic stimulus has dried up. And rising interest rates have made purchases of big-ticket items such as cars more expensive.
Americans are still spending plenty to get out and about, however.
Americans have been spending more on services such as travel, hospitality and recreation and less on goods such as consumer electronics and home-office supplies. That’s a big reversal of what happened during the pandemic.
That’s helping to keep the economy afloat. If the economy continues to slow, however, spending on services could also go slack.
Looking ahead: “U.S. retail sales fell sharply in March as consumers became more cautious, adding to other recent data releases that have signaled a deterioration [in the economy],” said economist Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.42%
and S&P 500 SPX, -0.21%
fell in Friday trades after Federal Reserve Gov. Chris Waller said interest rates need to keep rising to squelch high U.S. inflation.
The oil market will fall into a much larger oil deficit far sooner than expected, following surprise production cuts from some of OPEC’s leading members, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
The gaping hole in the global oil market between the availability of crude and rebounding demand for it will reach 2 million barrels a day by the third quarter of the year, the Paris-based agency said in a closely followed monthly report.
The gap, which oil producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, will be unable or unwilling to fill, risks sending crude prices sharply higher, worsening inflation just as it appears to be moderating, and deepening an economic malaise, the agency said.
The decision, taken by Saudi Arabia and a selection of some of OPEC’s largest oil producers, to cut oil output by nearly 1.2 million barrels a day was announced earlier this month and took the oil market by surprise. It came just as a consensus among industry analysts predicted that the oil market would need to pump more oil, rather than less, in order to satisfy rebounding demand in China and prevent prices from jumping.
Russia, which is allied with OPEC in an alliance known as OPEC+, also said it would extend a round of announced oil cuts until the end of the year. The cuts will total roughly 1.6 million barrels a day, though many analysts expect the actual reduction to be slightly lower in practice.
The IEA on Friday said that it expects the cuts to lead to 1.4 million barrels a day less of oil between March and the end of the year. The planned cuts are expected to begin next month and last until the end of the year.
Oil-producing nations not part of OPEC are set to increase their output during the same period, which should soften the impact. That includes a group of smaller oil producers such as Guyana and Nigeria, who are proving to be a wild card for the market.
Increased output from non-OPEC+ oil producers would likely add 1 million barrels a day between March and the end of the year, but the increase wouldn’t be enough to offset the Saudi-led move, the IEA said.
U.S. shale oil producers, who in past years were quick to ramp up supply when the price was right, are unlikely to do so again. Western nations are increasingly reluctant to invest more in fossil fuel supply, favoring instead renewable sources of energy that don’t contribute to the negative effects of climate change.
“Oil market balances were already set to tilt into a substantial deficit in the second half of this year, but the new cuts risk further tightening balances and pushing up oil prices at a time when inflationary pressures are already hurting vulnerable consumers,” the IEA said in the report.
“Consumers confronted by inflated prices for basic necessities will now have to spread their budgets even more thinly. This augurs badly for the economic recovery and growth,” it added.
While last month, the IEA expected the oil market to fall into a deficit in the third quarter of the year, it now expects a 400,000-barrel gap between supply and demand to appear in the second quarter.
That gap will grow to 2 million barrels a day in the third and fourth quarters. For 2023, the IEA forecasts an average deficit of 800,000 barrels a day, twice what it was expecting before the Saudi-led oil cuts.
The IEA, along with many oil market forecasters and OPEC itself, expects China’s reopening following its coronavirus lockdowns to rapidly increase demand for oil. The IEA said demand for oil would grow by 2 million barrels a day this year, in line with earlier forecasts. Nearly 90% of that increase would be outside of developed nations in the West, while China alone would contribute to around half of the increase, it said.
After a long period of underperformance when compared with the U.S. equity market, stocks in other countries are holding their own this year. One way to lower your overall risk with real diversification is to add exposure to an active international management style that doesn’t mirror a broad stock index.
One example is the $2.7 billion Columbia Overseas Value Fund COSZX, which is rated four stars out of five by Morningstar in its Foreign Large Value category. Fred Copper and Daisuke Nomoto co-manage the fund and described…
The San Francisco Police Department on Thursday arrested Nima Momeni, 38, of Emeryville, Calif., for allegedly stabbing to death tech executive Bob Lee.
Mission Local, an independent local news site, first reported the arrest.
City officials held a press conference Thursday afternoon, saying that the arrest occurred earlier in Emeryville,…
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday said it was important that the tensions between the U.S. and China not devolve into a second Cold War.
At a press briefing at the start of the IMF/World Bank meetings of finance ministers and central bankers. Georgieva called for “cool-headedness” and rational policies to lower tension.
Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. surged Thursday, after the air carrier swung to a first-quarter profit as revenue rose above expectations, and said it was “confident” in its full-year projections given a “strong” outlook for the current quarter.
The company reported a net loss that narrowed to $363 million, or 57 cents a share, from $940 million, or $1.48 a share, in the same period a year ago.
California Rep. Ro Khanna on Wednesday became the first Democratic lawmaker to openly call on Sen. Dianne Feinstein to step down amid concerns about her health, saying the longtime senator can no longer fulfill her duties.
Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., later seconded Khanna’s call, and Feinstein issued a statement saying she has asked for another Democrat to temporarily replace her on the critical Senate Judiciary Committee.
Series I bonds had a good two-year run at the top of the interest-rate heap, but the next 6-month rate that will be announced on May 1 is likely to fall so low that buyers probably won’t show up in record-breaking numbers.
I-bonds are priced based on two factors: a variable rate based on six months of inflation data (from October through March) and a fixed rate that is less transparently calculated. The latest CPI numbers for March indicate that the variable rate is going to pan out at an annualized rate of 3.38%, down from…
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Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. were rocked Wednesday, after the air carrier raised its profit outlook, but not by enough to match Wall Street expectations.
The company said before the open that it expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1 cent to 5 cents, compared with a per-share loss of $2.32 a year ago. While that’s better than previous guidance for an “approximately breakeven” quarter, the average EPS estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet was 5 cents.
Cutera Inc. CUTR, a Californian provider of dermatology equipment, said Wednesday it’s terminating its executive chairman Daniel Plants and chief executive David Mowry for cause, on the recommendation of a special committee and the majority of its board. The move comes just days after Plants and Mowry issued a statement seeking the removal of five members of the board over concerns that they haven’t made progress on a CEO succession plan. The board said Wednesday it has appointed one of those members, Sheila A. Hopkins, as interim CEO, and another, Janet D. Widmann, as independent chair effective immediately. A search…
Moderna Inc. said Tuesday it’s working to develop its first bacterial vaccine to protect against Lyme disease, the tick-borne illness that causes a range of painful symptoms, including fever, headaches, fatigue, joint pain and rash.
The biotech MRNA, -2.75%,
whose first product to be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration was its mRNA-based COVID vaccine, said it has two candidates in development to address Lyme disease, named mRNA-1982 and mRNA-1975.
It announced the news at its fourth Vaccine Day, where it offered a full update on its clinical pipeline, which includes vaccines to protect against flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, as well as HIV, Epstein-Barr virus and herpes simplex virus, among others.
There are about 120,000 cases of Lyme disease in the U.S. and Europe every year, creating a “significant quality of life burden,” the company said in a statement. Rising temperatures are helping the disease spread more easily, and it is difficult to diagnose, because the symptoms are similar to those of many other diseases. It most seriously affects children below the age of 15 and older adults.
“Older adults appear to have higher odds of unfavorable treatment response as compared with younger patients, and neurologic manifestations are more common at presentation for this older adult population,” said the statement.
Tick and Lyme disease season is here, and scientists warn this year could be worse than ever. Dr. Goudarz Molaei joins Lunch Break’s Tanya Rivero to explain what triggered the rapid spread of the disease and how people can avoid being affected. Photo: Kent Wood/Science Source
The mRNA-1982 candidate is designed to create antibodies for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen that causes almost all Lyme disease in the U.S., while mRNA-1975 is designed to elicit antibodies specific to the four major Borrelia species that cause the disease in the U.S. and Europe.
Other new candidates in Moderna’s pipeline include mRNA-1405 and mRNA-1403, which aim to address the enteric virus norovirus. Norovirus is highly contagious and is the leading cause of diarrheal disease globally, Moderna said. It’s associated with about 18% of all such illnesses worldwide and causes about 200,000 deaths every year.
Overall, Moderna is expecting to launch six major vaccine products in the next few years, all of them with large addressable markets.
The company expects the annual global endemic market for COVID boosters alone to be worth about $15 billion.
It has dosed the first participant in a late-stage trial of its next-generation, refrigerator-stable COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1283. The vaccine “has demonstrated encouraging results in multiple clinical studies,” the company said.
A separate trial of a flu vaccine called mRNA-1010 fared less well, however.
That trial “did not accrue sufficient cases at the interim efficacy analysis to declare early success in the Phase 3 Northern Hemisphere efficacy trial and the independent DSMB recommended continuation of efficacy follow-up,” the company said.
The company expects the market for respiratory-product sales to range from $8 billion to $15 billion by 2027 and for operating profit that year to range from $4 billion to $9 billion.
The stock was down 4% Tuesday and has fallen 15% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.17%
has gained 7%.
