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  • The former bond king, Bill Gross, says 10-year Treasury is ‘overvalued’

    The former bond king, Bill Gross, says 10-year Treasury is ‘overvalued’

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    The former bond king doesn’t like the fixed-income security that’s the lynchpin of the financial world.

    Bill Gross, the retired fund manager and co-founder of Pacific Investment Management, took to the social-media service X to say that the 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    is “overvalued” with a yield of 4%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

    Through Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen 99 basis points from its late October peak.

    He said the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected yield at 1.80% is the better choice. “If you need to buy bonds. I don’t,” said Gross.

    Gross also continued to talk of his idea to go long 2-year bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    while shorting the 10-year. “Stick with the return to a positive 10 year/2 year yield curve. Earns carry while you wait,” he said. In previous posts, he talked of making such trades via Treasury futures contracts.

    Gross said he was taking a bow for his recommendation of regional bank stocks six months ago and mortgage REITs in December. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
    KRE
    has climbed 49% from its May 4 low, and the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF
    REM
    has gained 21% from its late October low. Gross in November highlighted Annaly Capital Management
    NLY,
    +2.62%

    and AGNC Investment Corp.
    AGNC,
    +3.75%

    as mortgage REITs he likes for 2024.

    Gross said he still likes Capri Holdings
    CPRI,
    -0.39%

    as a merger arbitrage target. Tapestry
    TPR,
    +2.04%

    in August agreed to buy Capri for $57 per share, and on Monday, Capri closed at $50.49.

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  • Boeing’s financials won’t be hurt by latest 737 Max issues, analysts say. The company’s size is one reason.

    Boeing’s financials won’t be hurt by latest 737 Max issues, analysts say. The company’s size is one reason.

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    Alaska Airlines, United Airlines and Turkish Airlines have all grounded their Boeing 737 Max 9 airplanes after part of one such jet tore away during an Alaska Airlines flight on Friday. But despite the potential safety risks for travelers and further damage to Boeing’s
    BA,
    -8.03%

    reputation, some Wall Street analysts, for now, have downplayed the financial impact for the jet maker.

    In part, they pointed to the company’s status as one of two major players in aircraft production — the other being Airbus
    EADSY,
    +3.52%
    .
    They also cited a tighter supply of available aircraft and limited near-term impact, at least while investigators try to figure out the cause of the incident.

    Those airlines and others took the action over the weekend after a panel on a jet blew out about 10 minutes into Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 at an altitude of about 16,000 feet.

    No one died in the incident. But the Federal Aviation Administration ordered the temporary grounding of certain Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft. The order covered 171 planes.

    Shares of Boeing fell 8.2% as the stock weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA.

    Still, some Wall Street analysts on Monday said to buy the stock anyway. They said the latest difficulties with the aircraft — which follow the 2019 grounding of Max jets by many nations following two fatal crashes — were unlikely to have a big near-term financial impact.

    BofA analysts, in a research note dated Sunday, said that “at this point in time, due to the duopoly nature of the industry, we do not see this impacting orders for any of the 737 MAX variants. However, if the hits to the program do keep coming … at some point, the flying public may lose confidence in the 737 MAX which could ultimately impact sales.”

    The analysts said it wasn’t clear yet whether the blowout on Friday was due to an assembly mistake at Boeing, an improper installation from fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems or oversight issues elsewhere. But they noted that the aircraft was relatively new, having been delivered on Oct. 31. And they said that “some scrutiny must be saved for regulators as well, as the FAA is ultimately responsible for certificating these aircraft before delivery.”

    Spirit AeroSystems’ stock
    SPR,
    -11.13%

    was down 11%.

    Analysts at William Blair also said they didn’t expect a big hit to Boeing’s financials.

    “While the Alaska Airlines door plug accident was terrifying, we do not believe that it will have a major financial impact, unless another incident occurs after the aircraft returns to service,” they said in a note on Monday.

    Analysts there estimated that over the past two months, the Max 9 made up less than one-fifth of Boeing’s total deliveries. They said those deliveries would only be “modestly impacted over the first quarter as it could take some time to determine the cause.”

    Of the 23 analyst ratings on Boeing’s stock tracked by FactSet, 18 are buy ratings or the equivalent.

    Read more: How Boeing’s latest 737 Max problem is hurting the Dow

    However, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker said the 737 Max 9 issues will likely disrupt first-quarter results for United Airlines
    UAL,
    +2.78%

    and Alaska Air
    ALK,
    -0.21%
    .

    “This will hopefully be a situation resolved in days/weeks rather than months, but it will also serve as a reminder of how fragile airline capacity can be despite the overhang of capacity,” Shanker said in a Monday research note.

    United Airlines’ stock rose 2.4% on Monday, while Alaska Air’s dipped by 0.3%.

    Along with United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Turkish Airlines, Copa Airlines and Aeromexico grounded about 40 Boeing 737 Max 9 planes, according to reports.

    According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the affected fleet accounts for 16.1% of Alaska Airlines flights and 6.6% of United flights, although United has more 737 Max 9 aircraft than Alaska.

    Other airlines with the plane in their fleet include Jet Airways of India with one plane, Jin Air of Korea with three, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
    KLMR,

    with five and Korean Air Lines
    003490,
    -1.52%

    with nine, according to Planespotter.net.

    European regulators also grounded the 737 Max 9 for inspection.

    Some major airlines do not have any 737 Max 9s in their fleets, including American Airlines
    AAL,
    +7.21%
    ,
    Southwest Airlines
    LUV,
    -0.10%

    and Air Canada
    AC,
    +3.42%
    ,
    according to reports.

    Also read: Shares in Boeing slump, supplier Spirit AeroSystems tanks, after panel blows out

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  • Why stock-market investors will remain at mercy of shifting rate-cut expectations after wobbly start to 2024

    Why stock-market investors will remain at mercy of shifting rate-cut expectations after wobbly start to 2024

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    Stock investors have gotten off to a wobbly start to the new year, hobbled by shifting expectations on the timing and extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2024.

    All three major U.S. stock indexes snapped a nine-week winning streak on Friday, after unexpectedly strong December job gains prompted traders to briefly pull back on the chances of a March rate cut. The S&P 500
    SPX
    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    also failed to stage a Santa Claus Rally from the five final trading days of 2023 through the first two sessions of 2024, as questions grew about the market’s multiple rate-cuts view.

    It all adds up to a glimpse of what might be in store for investors in the year ahead. Already, the so-called “January effect,” or theory that stocks tend to rise by more now than any other month, could be put to the test by headwinds that include stalling progress on inflation. Inflation’s downward trend in recent months had given traders and investors hope that as many as six or seven quarter-percentage-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be delivered in 2024, starting in March.

    Over the first handful of days in the new year, however, reality has started to sink in. For one thing, multiple rate cuts tend to be more commonly associated with recessions and not soft landings for the economy.

    Moreover, the idea that the Fed could follow through with as many rate cuts as envisioned by traders would significantly increase the probability that policymakers lose their battle against inflation, according to Mike Sanders, head of fixed income at Wisconsin-based Madison Investments, which manages $23 billion in assets. That’s because six or more rate cuts would loosen financial conditions by too much, and boost the risk of another bout of inflation that forces officials to hike again, he said.

    Minutes of the Fed’s Dec. 12-13 meeting show that policymakers were uncertain about their forecasts for rate cuts this year and failed to rule out the possibility of further rate hikes. Nonetheless, fed funds futures traders continued to cling to expectations for a big decline in borrowing costs, with the greatest likelihood now coalescing around five or six quarter-point rate cuts that total 125 or 150 basis points of easing by year-end. That’s roughly twice as much as what policymakers penciled in last month, when they voted to keep interest rates at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.

    Source: CME FedWatch Tool, as of Jan. 5.

    Uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates could leave investors flat-footed once again, and damp the optimism that sent all three major stock indexes in 2023 to their best annual performances of the prior two to three years. In November, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG
    DB,
    +0.81%

    counted seven times since 2021 in which markets expected the Fed to make a dovish pivot, only to be wrong.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Chart is as of Nov. 20, 2023.

    Financial markets have been operating with “sky-high expectations” for 2024 rate cuts, but the only way to substantiate six cuts this year is with an “abrupt and sharp downturn in the economy,” said Todd Thompson, managing director and portfolio co-manager at Reams Asset Management in Indianapolis, which oversees $27 billion.

    Heading into 2024, euphoria over the prospect of lower borrowing costs produced what Thompson calls “an alarming, everything rally,” which he says leaves equities and high-yield corporate debt vulnerable to pullbacks between now and the next six months. Beyond that period, however, “the trend is likely to be lower rates as the economy finally succumbs to tightening conditions at the same time inflation continues to recede.”

    The coming week brings the next major U.S. inflation update, with December’s consumer price index report released on Thursday. The annual headline rate of inflation from CPI has slowed to 3.1% in November from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In addition, the core rate from the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, known as the PCE, has eased to 3.2% year-on-year in November from a 4.2% annual rate in July.

    The Fed needs to keep interest rates higher because of all the uncertainty around inflation’s most likely path forward, and the U.S. labor market “won’t degrade fast enough in the first quarter to justify a first rate cut in March,” according to Sanders of Madison Investments.

    Rate-cut expectations are “going to be the issue for 2024, and a lot of it is going to be revolving around inflation getting back to that 2% target,” Sanders said via phone. “We think somewhere between 75 and 125 basis points of rate cuts make sense, and that the first move is more of a June-type of event. We don’t think it makes sense to have a March rate cut unless the labor market falls off a cliff.”

    History shows that Treasury yields tend to fall in the months leading up to the first rate cut of a Fed easing cycle. However, that isn’t happening right now. Yields on government debt have been on an upward trend since the end of December, with 2-
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y,
    10-
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
    and 30-year yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    ending Friday at their highest levels in more than two to three weeks.

    See also: What history says about stocks and the bond market ahead of a first Fed rate cut

    While financial markets generally tend to be efficient processors of information, they “haven’t been very accurate in terms of pricing in rate cuts” this time, said Lawrence Gillum, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based chief fixed-income strategist for broker-dealer for LPL Financial. He said the big risk for 2024 is if financial conditions ease too much and the Fed declares victory on inflation too soon, which could reignite price pressures in a manner reminiscent of the 1970s period under former Fed Chairman Arthur Burns.

    “We think rate-cut expectations have gone too far too fast, and that the backup in yields we are seeing right now is the market acknowledging that maybe rate cuts are not going to be as aggressive as what was priced in,” Gillum said via phone.

    December’s CPI report on Thursday is the data highlight of the week ahead.

    On Monday, consumer-credit data for November is set to be released, followed the next day by trade-deficit figures for the same month.

    Wednesday brings the wholesale-inventories report for November and remarks by New York Fed President John Williams.

    Initial weekly jobless claims are released on Thursday. On Friday, the producer price index for December comes out.

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  • Alaska Airlines grounds all Boeing 737-9 Max planes after flight suffers midair window blowout

    Alaska Airlines grounds all Boeing 737-9 Max planes after flight suffers midair window blowout

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    Alaska Airlines grounded all of its Boeing 737-9 aircraft late Friday, hours after a window and piece of fuselage on one such plane blew out in midair and forced an emergency landing in Portland, Oregon.

    The incident occurred shortly after takeoff and the gaping hole caused the cabin to depressurize. Flight data showed the plane climbed to 16,000 feet (4,876 meters) before returning to Portland International Airport.

    The airline
    ALK,
    +3.10%

    said the plane landed safely with 174 passengers and six crew members.

    “Following tonight’s event on Flight 1282, we have decided to take the precautionary step of temporarily grounding our fleet of 65 Boeing 737-9 aircraft,” Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci said in a statement.

    Each of the aircraft will be returned to service after full maintenance and safety inspections, which Minicucci said the airline anticipated completing within days.

    The airline provided no immediate information about whether anyone was injured or the possible cause.

    The plane was diverted about about six minutes after taking off at 5:07 p.m., according to flight tracking data from the FlightAware website. It landed at 5:26 p.m.

    The pilot told Portland air traffic controllers the plane had an emergency, was depressurized and needed to return to the airport, according to a recording made by the website LiveATC.net.

    A passenger sent KATU-TV in Portland a photo showing the hole in the side of the airplane next to passenger seats. Video shared with the station showed people wearing oxygen masks and passengers clapping as the plane landed.

    The National Transportation Safety Board said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it was investigating an event on the flight and would post updates when they are available. The Federal Aviation Administration also said it would investigate.

    The Boeing 737-9 MAX involved in the incident rolled off the assembly line and received its certification just two months ago, according to online FAA records.

    The plane had been on 145 flights since entering commercial service on Nov. 11, said FlightRadar24, another tracking service. The flight from Portland was the aircraft’s third of the day.

    Boeing
    BA,
    +1.66%

    said it was aware of the incident, working to gather more information and ready to support the investigation.

    The Max is the newest version of Boeing’s venerable 737, a twin-engine, single-aisle plane frequently used on U.S. domestic flights. The plane went into service in May 2017.

    Two Max 8 jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, killing 346 people and leading to a near two-year worldwide grounding of all Max 8 and Max 9 planes.

    The planes returned to service only after Boeing made changes to an automated flight control system implicated in the crashes.

    Last year, the FAA told pilots to limit use of an anti-ice system on the Max in dry conditions because of concern that inlets around the engines could overheat and break away, possibly striking the plane.

    Max deliveries have been interrupted at times to fix manufacturing flaws. The company told airlines in December to inspect the planes for a possible loose bolt in the rudder-control system.

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  • AMC extends losing streak to five days, hits another record low close

    AMC extends losing streak to five days, hits another record low close

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    AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. extended its losing streak to five days Friday, with the stock ending the session down 2.5% to $5.15.

    AMC
    AMC,
    -2.45%

    shares are now on their longest losing streak since a seven-day slide that ended on Aug. 29, 2023. The movie-theater chain and onetime meme-stock darling ended Thursday’s session at a then-record-low close of $5.30. AMC was a top trending symbol on Stocktwits, a social platform for investors and traders, at Friday’s open.

    The stock’s previous record closing low had been $6.07, which was set on Dec. 21, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data, citing available information dating back to Dec. 18, 2013.

    Related: AMC hits another record-low close, extends losing streak to four days

    The decline in AMC’s share price is a far cry from its meme-stock heyday, when it hit an all-time closing high of $339.05 on June 2, 2021.

    In a regulatory filing Tuesday, AMC said that between Dec. 28 and Dec. 29, 2023, the company entered into a series of privately negotiated exchange agreements to issue nearly 3.26 million shares of Class A common stock in exchange for $22.5 million of its notes due in 2026.  The common stock issued had an implied value of $6.94 per share, according to AMC. “The company may engage in similar transactions in the future but is under no obligation to do so,” AMC said in the filing.

    The move is the latest in AMC’s attempts to tackle its debt burden, which reached more than $5 billion in 2022. That year, AMC launched its APE special dividend, and in 2023 it completed the conversion of the APEs into AMC common stock and a reverse 1-for-10 split of common stock. 

    Related: AMC CEO slams ‘prophets of doom,’ says company is ‘blazing new trails’ as it enters 2024

    In December, AMC also completed its latest at-the-market equity offering, raising approximately $350 million. AMC CEO Adam Aron has repeatedly warned that the company faces liquidity challenges

    AMC shares are down 84.8% in the last 12 months, compared with S&P 500 index’s
    SPX
    gain of 20.6%.

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  • If Nvidia looked more like Salesforce, it might unlock billions more in cash

    If Nvidia looked more like Salesforce, it might unlock billions more in cash

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    Nvidia Corp. is raking in billions in cash, but one analyst thinks the chip maker could throw $100 billion more onto the pile if it started to look more like Salesforce Inc.

    Nvidia
    NVDA,
    +2.29%

    might unlock even more cash by developing businesses that expand recurring revenue, according to BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya. The company has suffered some boom-and-bust cycles in recent years, and another bust could be smoothed by developing longer-term software contracts akin to those of Salesforce
    CRM,
    -0.05%
    .
    , Workday Inc.
    WDAY,
    -0.48%

    and ServiceNow Inc.
    NOW,
    +0.64%
    ,
    which generate recurring revenue from their customers.

    Arya sees a pathway for Nvidia to rake in $100 billion in incremental free cash flow over the next two years if it can bulk up its own recurring-revenue options.

    Read: Apple’s stock needs to get ‘unstuck’ — and its innovation rut may not be helping

    “While NVDA has a solid lead in AI, hardware-oriented businesses are not valued as highly as visibility tends to be limited,” Arya wrote. Nvidia generates only about $1 billion, or 2%, of its sales from software and subscriptions. Arya doesn’t think the company can get much higher than $5 billion with its software and subscription offerings unless it turns to acquisitions.

    Nvidia has shown some openness to deals that would beef up its intellectual property and software offerings, Arya notes, as it tried to buy British chip designer Arm Holdings
    ARM,
    -1.96%

    before facing regulatory pushback.

    “We envision [Nvidia] considering more enhanced partnerships/M&A of software companies that are helping traditional enterprise customers deploy, monitor and analyze [generative AI] apps,” he wrote. Nvidia “is already serving them via on-premise hardware and/or its DGX cloud service, but we believe greater direct recurring software/service channel could be more impactful.”

    The addition of more recurring-revenue streams could help Nvidia’s “relatively depressed trading multiple,” in Arya’s view. Nvidia shares trade at a 20% to 30% discount to its “Magnificent Seven” peers on the basis of price to earnings as well as enterprise value to free cash flow, even though the company’s compound annual growth rate on the top line is three times what it is for those other tech giants.

    The discount is “partly due to uncertainty in [calendar 2025] growth prospects, and partly due to a very hardware-dependent business unlike other large-cap software/internet peers that have recurring-revenue profiles,” he wrote.

    Arya has a buy rating and $700 price objective on the stock.

    See also: Amazon’s stock could be helped by this secret weapon in 2024, BofA says

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  • Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

    Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

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    WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court said Friday it will decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept off the ballot because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, inserting the court squarely in the 2024 presidential campaign.

    The justices acknowledged the need to reach a decision quickly, as voters will soon begin casting presidential-primary ballots across the country. The court agreed to take up a case from Colorado stemming from Trump’s role in the events that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    Arguments will be held in early February.

    The court will be considering for the first time the meaning and reach of a provision of the 14th Amendment barring some people who “engaged in insurrection” from holding public office. The amendment was adopted in 1868, following the Civil War. It has been so rarely used that the nation’s highest court had no previous occasion to interpret it.

    Colorado’s Supreme Court, by a 4-3 vote, ruled last month that Trump should not be on the Republican primary ballot. The decision was the first time the 14th Amendment was used to bar a presidential contender from the ballot.

    Trump is separately appealing to state court a ruling by Maine’s Democratic secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, that he was ineligible to appear on that state’s ballot over his role in the Capitol attack. Both the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine secretary of state’s rulings are on hold until the appeals play out.

    Three of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trump, though they have repeatedly ruled against him in 2020 election-related lawsuits, as well as his efforts to keep documents related to Jan. 6 and prevent his tax returns from being turned over to congressional committees.

    At the same time, Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have been in the majority of conservative-driven decisions that overturned the five-decade-old constitutional right to abortion, expanded gun rights and struck down affirmative action in college admissions.

    Some Democratic lawmakers have called on another conservative justice, Clarence Thomas, to step aside from the case because of his wife’s support for Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. Thomas is unlikely to agree. He has recused himself from only one other case related to the 2020 election, involving former law clerk John Eastman, and so far the people trying to disqualify Trump haven’t asked Thomas to recuse.

    The 4-3 Colorado decision cites a ruling by Gorsuch when he was a federal judge in that state. That Gorsuch decision upheld Colorado’s move to strike a naturalized citizen from the state’s presidential ballot because he was born in Guyana and didn’t meet the constitutional requirements to run for office. The court found that Trump likewise doesn’t meet the qualifications due to his role in the U.S. Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. That day, the Republican president had held a rally outside the White House and exhorted his supporters to “fight like hell” before they walked to the Capitol.

    The two-sentence provision in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that anyone who swore an oath to uphold the constitution and then “engaged in insurrection” against it is no longer eligible for state or federal office. After Congress passed an amnesty for most of the former confederates the measure targeted in 1872, the provision fell into disuse until dozens of suits were filed to keep Trump off the ballot this year. Only the one in Colorado was successful.

    Trump had asked the court to overturn the Colorado ruling without even hearing arguments. “The Colorado Supreme Court decision would unconstitutionally disenfranchise millions of voters in Colorado and likely be used as a template to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters nationwide,” Trump’s lawyers wrote.

    They argue that Trump should win on many grounds, including that the events of Jan. 6 did not constitute an insurrection. Even if it did, they wrote, Trump himself had not engaged in insurrection. They also contend that the insurrection clause does not apply to the president and that Congress must act, not individual states.

    Critics of the former president who sued in Colorado agreed that the justices should step in now and resolve the issue, as do many election law experts.

    “This case is of utmost national importance. And given the upcoming presidential-primary schedule, there is no time to wait for the issues to percolate further. The Court should resolve this case on an expedited timetable, so that voters in Colorado and elsewhere will know whether Trump is indeed constitutionally ineligible when they cast their primary ballots,” lawyers for the Colorado plaintiffs told the Supreme Court.

    The issue of whether Trump can be on the ballot is not the only matter related to the former president or Jan. 6 that has reached the high court. The justices last month declined a request from special counsel Jack Smith to swiftly take up and rule on Trump’s claims that he is immune from prosecution in a case charging him with plotting to overturn the 2020 presidential election, though the issue could be back before the court soon depending on the ruling of a Washington-based appeals court.

    And the court has said that it intends to hear an appeal that could upend hundreds of charges stemming from the Capitol riot, including against Trump.

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  • Why Red Sea chaos is driving oil buyers ‘into the arms of U.S. shale producers’

    Why Red Sea chaos is driving oil buyers ‘into the arms of U.S. shale producers’

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    Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea have led to transport disruptions for oil and other goods, but international oil shippers may have found a way to deal with the chaos.

    The latest data from the Energy Information Administration offers a hint to that solution.

    The report from the government agency showed surprisingly large weekly increases in gasoline and distillate supplies, contributing to losses for energy futures on Thursday.

    But Robert Yawger, executive director for energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, also highlighted another key figure in the data — a weekly jump in U.S. petroleum exports.

    Exports climbed by 1.377 million barrels a day to 5.292 million barrels a day for the week ended Dec. 29, according to the EIA.

    “For the first time since Houthi Yemeni rebels started to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, we are seeing a spike in U.S. exports,” said Yawger, in a Thursday afternoon note.

    The Red Sea chokepoints are critical for international oil and natural-gas flows, according to the EIA.


    U.S. Energy Information Administration

    “Apparently, international shippers are worried about being attacked on the open sea, and are getting beat” on the cost of sailing around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa as an alternative to the passage through the Red Sea, he said. Instead, the “safer and cheaper way to procure supply, especially for EU customers, is to sail the boat to the U.S. Gulf Coast and load up on cheap U.S. [oil] barrels.”

    See: Houthis launch sea drone to attack ships in Red Sea, hours after U.S. issues ‘final warning’

    U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude
    CL.1,
    +0.66%

    CLG24,
    +0.66%

    trades at a discount to global benchmark Brent crude
    BRN00,
    +0.45%

    BRNH24,
    +0.45%
    .
    On Thursday, the February WTI futures contract settled at $72.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while March Brent settled at $77.59 on ICE Futures Europe — a difference of $5.40 a barrel.

    That compares with a “cost of carry” for an Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Antwerp refiner of around $4 a barrel, said Yawger. So “forget about the Houthis/Iranian menace in the Red Sea,” he said. “You don’t need a U.S. Navy escort from danger — just a nice, clean two- to- four-week round-trip journey to the U.S.”

    ‘Ironically, the chaos in the Middle East is driving international crude-oil customers into the arms of the U.S. shale producers.’


    — Robert Yawger, Mizuho

    He expects U.S. petroleum exports to sustain the 5 million plus barrel-per-day level in the coming weeks, with the “geopolitical situation seemingly heating up every day.”

    “Ironically, the chaos in the Middle East is driving international crude-oil customers into the arms of the U.S. shale producers,” said Yawger. “There is a very good chance U.S. exports break the all-time record in coming weeks, just in time for refiners to pull back on the run rate.”

    Weekly U.S. crude-oil exports reached a record 5.629 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 24, 2023, based on EIA data going back to February 1991.

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  • North Korea provided Russia with missiles that hit Ukraine, White House says

    North Korea provided Russia with missiles that hit Ukraine, White House says

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    The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea recently provided Russia with ballistic-missile launchers and ballistic missiles, and some of those missiles were launched into Ukraine on Dec. 30 and Jan. 2, White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday. “This is a significant and concerning escalation in the DPRK’s support for Russia,” he said at a daily press briefing.

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  • Mark Zuckerberg sold $428 million of Meta stock in the last two months of 2023

    Mark Zuckerberg sold $428 million of Meta stock in the last two months of 2023

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    Mark Zuckerberg cashed in on his company’s 2023 stock rally in a big way — selling nearly $428 million worth of shares in Meta Platforms Inc. over the final two months of the year.

    The Meta
    META,
    -0.53%

    co-founder and chief executive offloaded just under 1.8 million shares over the course of every trading day between Nov. 1 and the end of last year, according to a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday. 

    The sales were in accordance with a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by Zuckerberg in July and saw him capitalize on Meta’s rebounding stock price, which soared 194.1% in 2023 — and nearly threefold since it hit a seven-year low in November 2022. By comparison, the S&P 500
    SPX
    and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    indexes gained 24.2% and 43.4%, respectively, in 2023.

    The moves also broke a two-year hiatus, dating back to November 2021, during which Zuckerberg did not sell any of his stock in the Facebook parent company, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news. Zuckerberg, who owns roughly 13% of Meta, is ranked the seventh-richest person in the world with a net worth of $125 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

    Nasdaq-listed Meta shares, which fell 0.5% on Wednesday to $344.47, are now roughly 11% off their all-time closing high of $382.18 from September 2021.

    Representatives for Meta could not immediately be reached for comment.

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  • U.S. manufacturing sector shrinks for 14th straight month in December

    U.S. manufacturing sector shrinks for 14th straight month in December

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    The numbers: A closely watched index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity rose by 0.7 percentage point to 47.4 in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday.

    Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to rise to 47.2. 

    Any number below 50 reflects a shrinking economy. Manufacturing has contracted for 14 straight months.

    Key details: The key new-orders index fell 1.2 percentage points to 47.1 in December.

    Production rose 1.8 percentage points to 50.3 from the prior month. Employment picked up slightly but remained below the 50-percentage-point threshold.

    Prices fell 4.7 percentage points to 45.2. That’s the biggest drop since May 2023. Inventories were down 0.5 percentage point to 44.3 in December.

    Customer inventories dipped back below 50 last month to 48.1 in December.

    Only one industry, primary metals, reported growth in December, while 16 reported contractions.

    Layoffs picked up in December, concentrated in the computer and electronics, machinery, and food and beverage sectors.

    Big picture: The contraction in manufacturing is the longest since 2000-01, after the dot-com bubble exploded, said Jay Hawkins, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

    Economists said that depressed capital spending has been the key drag on the factory sector, along with weak global trade. They expect that a sharp drop in long-term interest rates will improve the picture, but the change won’t happen overnight.

    What the ISM said: Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM manufacturing survey committee, was relatively upbeat about the data. He said the sector was closing the year in a “really good position” and forecast that the ISM factory index would rise above the 50-percentage-point threshold by March. Fiore said he also expects the inventory number to pick up in coming months.

    What economists said: “The survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to continue declining for at least a few more months,” said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA

    SPX
    were lower in early trading on Wednesday, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    rose to just below 4%.

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  • The Russell 2000 Index has soared, but you might be better off looking elsewhere for quality small-cap stocks

    The Russell 2000 Index has soared, but you might be better off looking elsewhere for quality small-cap stocks

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    The Russell 2000 Index soared 12% in December, which might reflect investors’ exuberance about the state of the U.S. economy — it appears the Federal Reserve has won its battle against inflation.

    But if you are looking to broaden your exposure to the stock market beyond the large-cap S&P 500
    SPX,
    buying shares of a fund that tracks the Russell 2000 Index
    RUT
    might not be the best way to do it. This is because the Russell 2000 isn’t selective — it is made up of the smallest 2,000 companies by market capitalization in the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    which itself is designed to capture about 98% of the U.S. public equity market.

    A better choice might be the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML
    because S&P Global requires companies to show four consecutive quarters of profitability to be initially included in the index, among other criteria.

    Below is a screen of analysts’ favorite stocks among the S&P Small Cap 600, along with another for the Russell 2000.

    Watch for a “head fake”

    Much of the small-cap buying in December might have resulted from covering of short positions by hedge-fund managers. This idea is backed by the timing of trading activity immediately following the Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement on Dec. 13 that it wouldn’t change its interest-rate policy, according to MacroTourist blogger Kevin Muir. The Fed’s economic projections released the same day also indicate three cuts to the federal-funds rate in 2024.

    Heading into the end of the year, a fund manager who had shorted small-caps, and then was surprised by the Fed’s interest-rate projections, might have scrambled to buy stocks it had shorted to close-out the positions and hopefully lock in gains, or limit losses.

    That buying activity and resulting pop in small-cap prices could set up a typical “head fake” for investors as the new year begins, according to Muir.

    The long-term case for quality

    Looking at data for companies’ most recently reported fiscal quarters, 58% of the Russell 2000 reported positive earnings per share, according to data provided by FactSet. In other words, hundreds of these companies were losing money. These might include promising companies facing “binary events,” such as make-or-break drug trials in the biotechnology industry.

    In comparison, 78% of companies among the S&P Small Cap 600 were profitable, and 93% of the S&P 500 were in the black.

    Here are long-term performance figures for exchange-traded funds that track all three indexes:

    ETF

    Ticker

    2023

    3 years

    5 years

    10 years

    15 years

    20 years

    iShares Russell 2000 ETF

    IWM 17%

    7%

    61%

    99%

    428%

    365%

    iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF

    IJR 16%

    25%

    69%

    129%

    540%

    515%

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

    SPY 26%

    34%

    108%

    210%

    629%

    527%

    Source: FactSet

    An approach tracking the S&P Small Cap 600 has outperformed the Russell 2000 for all periods, with margins widening as you go further back.

    Brett Arends: You own the wrong small-cap fund. How to get into a better one.

    Looking ahead for quality… or not

    For the first screen, we began with the S&P Small Cap 600 and narrowed the list to 385 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet. Then we cut the list to 92 companies with “buy” or equivalent ratings among at least 75% of the covering analysts.

    Here are the 20 remaining stocks among the S&P Small Cap 600 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by analysts’ consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 29 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Vir Biotechnology Inc.

    VIR,
    +4.47%
    88%

    $10.06

    $32.00

    218%

    Arcus Biosciences Inc.

    RCUS,
    +3.04%
    82%

    $19.10

    $41.00

    115%

    Xencor Inc.

    XNCR,
    +6.03%
    92%

    $21.23

    $39.83

    88%

    Dynavax Technologies Corp.

    DVAX,
    +2.86%
    100%

    $13.98

    $24.80

    77%

    ModivCare Inc.

    MODV,
    +0.95%
    100%

    $43.99

    $75.50

    72%

    Xperi Inc

    XPER,
    +1.81%
    80%

    $11.02

    $18.20

    65%

    Thryv Holdings Inc.

    THRY,
    100%

    $20.35

    $32.75

    61%

    Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    LGND,
    +1.25%
    100%

    $71.42

    $114.80

    61%

    Green Plains Inc.

    GPRE,
    -1.67%
    80%

    $25.22

    $40.30

    60%

    Patterson-UTI Energy Inc.

    PTEN,
    +0.28%
    75%

    $10.80

    $17.00

    57%

    Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. Class A

    IRWD,
    +8.48%
    83%

    $11.44

    $17.83

    56%

    Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    CPRX,
    +1.78%
    100%

    $16.81

    $26.20

    56%

    Payoneer Global Inc.

    PAYO,
    -3.45%
    100%

    $5.21

    $8.00

    54%

    Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc.

    HLX,
    -2.63%
    83%

    $10.28

    $15.00

    46%

    Arlo Technologies Inc.

    ARLO,
    -3.05%
    100%

    $9.52

    $13.80

    45%

    Pacira Biosciences Inc.

    PCRX,
    -5.16%
    100%

    $33.74

    $48.40

    43%

    Privia Health Group Inc.

    PRVA,
    +2.95%
    100%

    $23.03

    $32.53

    41%

    Semtech Corp.

    SMTC,
    -1.23%
    92%

    $21.91

    $30.90

    41%

    Talos Energy Inc.

    TALO,
    +1.19%
    78%

    $14.23

    $20.00

    41%

    Digi International Inc.

    DGII,
    -1.21%
    100%

    $26.00

    $36.14

    39%

    Source: FactSet

    Any stock screen should only be considered a starting point. You should do your own research to form your own opinion before making any investment. one way to begin is by clicking on the tickers for more about each company.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Moving on to the Russell 2000, when we narrowed this group to stocks covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, we were left with 936 companies. Among these, 355 have “buy” or equivalent ratings among at least 75% of the covering analysts.

    Among those 355 stocks in the Russell 2000, these 20 have the highest implied upside over the next year, based on consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 29 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.

    KPTI,
    +4.18%
    75%

    $0.87

    $6.00

    594%

    Rallybio Corp.

    RLYB,
    +0.42%
    100%

    $2.39

    $16.50

    590%

    Vor Biopharma Inc.

    VOR,
    -0.89%
    100%

    $2.25

    $15.44

    586%

    Tenaya Therapeutics Inc.

    TNYA,
    -0.62%
    100%

    $3.24

    $19.14

    491%

    Compass Therapeutics Inc.

    CMPX,
    -5.13%
    86%

    $1.56

    $9.17

    488%

    Vigil Neuroscience Inc.

    VIGL,
    +2.66%
    88%

    $3.38

    $18.75

    455%

    Trevi Therapeutics Inc.

    TRVI,
    -2.99%
    100%

    $1.34

    $7.33

    447%

    Inozyme Pharma Inc.

    INZY,
    +1.64%
    100%

    $4.26

    $21.00

    393%

    Gritstone bio Inc.

    GRTS,
    +6.86%
    100%

    $2.04

    $10.00

    390%

    Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    ATNM,
    +4.72%
    83%

    $5.08

    $23.36

    360%

    Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.

    LCTX,
    86%

    $1.09

    $4.83

    343%

    Century Therapeutics Inc.

    IPSC,
    +9.64%
    86%

    $3.32

    $14.67

    342%

    Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.

    ACRV,
    +1.83%
    100%

    $4.92

    $21.13

    329%

    Avidity Biosciences Inc.

    RNA,
    +1.22%
    100%

    $9.05

    $37.50

    314%

    Longboard Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    LBPH,
    +316.25%
    100%

    $6.03

    $24.17

    301%

    Omega Therapeutics Inc.

    OMGA,
    -1.33%
    100%

    $3.01

    $12.00

    299%

    Allogene Therapeutics Inc.

    ALLO,
    +12.77%
    82%

    $3.21

    $12.79

    298%

    X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    XFOR,
    +5.21%
    86%

    $0.84

    $3.26

    289%

    Caribou Biosciences Inc.

    CRBU,
    -2.79%
    89%

    $5.73

    $22.25

    288%

    Stoke Therapeutics Inc.

    STOK,
    +11.41%
    78%

    $5.26

    $19.33

    268%

    Source: FactSet

    That’s right — this Russell 2000 list is all biotech. And in case you are wondering if any companies are on both lists, the answer is no.

    Don’t miss: 11 dividend stocks with high yields expected to be well supported in 2024 per strict criteria

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  • Apple's stock falls after 'sell' call from Barclays

    Apple's stock falls after 'sell' call from Barclays

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    Shares of Apple Inc. are starting 2024 with a selloff, after Barclays analyst Tim Long said it was “time for a breather,” citing weak hardware sales as iPhone 15 demand disappoints.

    “We are still picking up weakness on iPhone volumes and mix, as well as a lack of bounce-back in Macs, iPads and wearables,” Long wrote in a note to clients. “The biggest takeaway from the latest checks is incrementally worse [iPhone] 15 data points out of China, together with developed markets remaining soft.”

    He cut his rating on the stock
    AAPL,
    -0.54%

    to underweight from neutral, and trimmed his price target to $160 from $161. The new target implies about 17% downside from Friday’s closing price of $192.53.

    The stock slumped 1.8% in premarket trading Tuesday, putting it on track to open at a seven-week low.

    Long said iPhone 15 sales have been “lackluster” and believes Phone 16 sales will be the same, as he expects other hardware categories to remain weak. He said it’s time for investors to take a “breather” on the stock, as he doesn’t think it can keep rallying in the face of downbeat demand data, like it did in 2023.

    “We expect reversion after a year when most quarters were missed and the stock outperformed,” Long wrote.

    He expects Apple to report “in-line” fiscal first-quarter results, which runs through December, but he trimmed his second-quarter to further below consensus expectations.

    He now expects earnings per share and revenue for the quarter through March to be down in the low-single-digit percentage range, while the FactSet consensus calls for EPS to be up 2.6% at $1.57 and revenue to rise 1.1% to $95.8 billion.

    Apple’s stock surged 48.2% in 2023, or almost double the S&P 500 index’s
    SPX
    gain of 24.2%, even as revenue for each quarter of fiscal 2023 through September was below that of a year ago.

    Long is now one of just four of the 44 analysts surveyed by FactSet who are bearish on Apple’s stock, while 27 (61%) are bullish and 13 are neutral. His $160 price target is 19.2% below the average target of $197.92.

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  • Japan issues tsunami warnings after dozens of quakes, including a 7.6 magnitude, off western coast

    Japan issues tsunami warnings after dozens of quakes, including a 7.6 magnitude, off western coast

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    TOKYO (AP) — Japan issued tsunami alerts and ordered evacuations following a series of earthquakes on Monday that started a fire and trapped people under rubble on the west coast of its main island.

    The Japan Meterological Agency reported quakes off the coast of Ishikawa and nearby prefectures shortly after 4 p.m., one of them with a preliminary magnitude of 7.6.

    The agency issued a major tsunami warning for Ishikawa and lower-level tsunami warnings or advisories for the rest of the western coast of the island of Honshu, as well as the northernmost of its main islands, Hokkaido.

    Japanese public broadcaster NHK TV warned torrents of water could reach as high as 5 meters (16.5 feet) and urged people to flee to high land or a top of a nearby building as quickly as possible.

    NHK said the tsunami waves could keep returning, and warnings were continuing to be aired nearly an hour after the initial alert. Several aftershocks also rocked the region.

    Government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that nuclear plants in the area had not reported any irregularities. But he said it was critical for people in coastal areas to get away from the oncoming tsunami.

    “Every minute counts. Please evacuate to a safe area immediately,” he said.

    A tsunami of about 3 meters (about 10 feet) high was expected to hit Niigata and other prefectures on the western coast of Japan, and the waves were confirmed to have reached parts of the coastline.

    At least six homes were damaged by the quakes, with people trapped inside. A fire has broken out in Wajima city, Ishikawa Prefecture, and electricity is out for more than 30,000 households, Hayashi said.

    He said no reports of deaths or injuries had been confirmed, saying the situation was still unclear. Japan’s military was taking part in the rescue efforts, he said.

    Japanese media footage showed people running through the streets, and red smoke spewing from a fire in a residential neighborhood. Photos showed a crowd of people, including a woman with a baby on her back, standing by huge cracks that had ripped through the pavement.

    Bullet trains in the area were halted. Parts of the highway were also closed, and water pipes had burst, according to NHK. Some cell phone services in the region weren’t working.

    The Meteorological Agency said in a nationally broadcast news conference that more major quakes could hit the area over the next week, especially in the next two or three days.

    More than a dozen strong quakes had been detected in the region, with risks of setting off landslides and houses collapsing, according to the agency.

    Takashi Wakabayashi, a worker at a convenience store in Ishikawa Prefecture, said some items had tumbled from the shelves, but the biggest problem was the huge crowd of people who had shown up to stock up on bottled water, rice balls and bread.

    “We have customers at three times the level of usual,” he said.

    Tsunami warnings were also issued for parts of North Korea and Russia. Russian officials issued a tsunami alert for the island of Sakhalin, warning that areas across the island’s west coast could be affected by the waves.

    In nearby South Korea, the weather agency urged residents in some eastern coastal towns to watch for possible changes in sea levels. Tsunami waves that hit later later can be bigger than the initial ones.

    The Japanese government has set up a special emergency center to gather information on the quakes and tsunami and relay them speedily to residents to ensure safety, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters.

    He reiterated the warning for immediate evacuation in affected areas.

    Japan is an extremely quake-prone nation. In March 2011, a major quake and tsunami caused meltdowns at a nuclear plant. Government spokesman Hayashi told reporters that nuclear plants in the affected area had not reported any irregularities on Monday.

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  • So much for 'the January effect': Here are five things that could interrupt the U.S. stock market rally in early 2024.

    So much for 'the January effect': Here are five things that could interrupt the U.S. stock market rally in early 2024.

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    U.S. stocks capped off a wild 2023 with a two-month sprint that has carried the Dow to record highs and the S&P 500 index to within a whisker of a similar milestone.

    But after such a powerful advance, some portfolio managers and strategists are concerned that the market could suffer its own post-New Year’s Eve hangover once the calendar turns to January 2024.

    Instead of providing a tailwind for the market, several who spoke with MarketWatch worried that the “January effect” might work in reverse as investors scramble to lock in gains after the S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023, according to FactSet data.

    “Any time you have a big burst like that, I think you’re vulnerable to some profit-taking,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment strategist at Sierra Investment Management, during an interview with MarketWatch. “It wouldn’t surprise anybody to see the market cool off a bit after a strong run.”

    From high valuations, to bullish sentiment indicators, to economic data, to geopolitics and beyond, here are a few things that could trip up the market in January.

    U.S. stocks are already overbought

    A technical gauge that’s widely followed by Wall Street portfolio managers and technical analysts has been screaming that U.S. stocks are overbought for a month.

    The 14-day relative strength index on the S&P 500, a momentum indicator that’s supposed to help put the magnitude of the index’s latest moves into context, climbed as high as 82.4 on Dec. 19, its highest since 2020, according to FactSet data.

    FACTSET

    Although the RSI has since pulled back, it continues to hover around 70, seen by analysts as the threshold for when something can be considered “overbought.”

    Sentiment has swung from extremely bearish to extremely bullish

    In the span of just two months, investors have gone from incredibly bearish to incredibly bullish, according to the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly sentiment survey.

    That should give investors pause, since the gauge is seen as a reliable counter-indicator. When sentiment becomes stretched in either direction, it can signal that the market is about to turn. Investors say that is what happened back in July, and also in October after the S&P 500 touched its 2022 bear-market nadir.

    RAYMOND JAMES

    According to the AAII survey published ahead of the Christmas holiday, nearly 53% of respondents said they were bullish, the highest since April 2021. That number came down a bit this week, but it remains high relative to levels from October.

    The VIX is extremely low

    Wall Street’s favorite “fear gauge” is giving the all-clear. To some, that’s reason enough to worry.

    The Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    better known as the Vix, measures implied volatility, or how volatile traders’ expect the S&P 500 to be over the coming month based on trading activity in options contracts tied to the index.

    In December, the Vix dropped below 12 for the first time since before the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, said in emailed commentary that she is keeping a close eye on the Vix. Once volatility starts to climb, investors should consider taking some chips off the table.

    Progress on inflation could stall in January

    Some investors are already anxious about the next U.S. inflation report, due Jan. 11.

    The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast has core CPI rising more than 0.3% in December. If this proves accurate, it would be the hottest inflation reading since May.

    And even if core inflation comes in slightly cooler, stocks might not greet it with the same enthusiasm they have shown in the past.

    “U.S. CPI for December will hopefully continue to show a disinflationary trend, although the question is: can we keep rallying on this same dynamic?” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, in emailed comments.

    Earnings season could disappoint

    For three straight quarters beginning with the final three months of 2022, the largest U.S. companies saw their earnings shrink on a year-over-year basis.

    This “earnings recession” finally came to an end in the third quarter, but the conundrum that investors now face is whether companies can manage to satisfy Wall Street’s lofty expectations for 2024.

    The artificial-intelligence software boom and the fact that the U.S. economy avoided a recession in 2023 has helped boost analysts’ confidence about earnings, strategists said.

    According to the bottom-up consensus estimate from FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 aggregate earnings to increase by 11.7% for the calendar year 2024.

    “Markets have been baking in this 11.7% earnings growth figure for a while now. That’s a lot of optimism,” Goldman said during an interview with MarketWatch.

    And that’s not all…

    To be sure, this list is hardly comprehensive.

    Politics and geopolitics also came up a lot in discussions with analysts. Investing professionals cited Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election, another looming federal debt-ceiling showdown in the U.S., the beginning of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries, the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, and more as potential threats to market calm.

    Some expressed concern that the Treasury could spark a selloff in bonds and stocks with its next quarterly refunding announcement in early 2024.

    But in the view of Cetera’s Goldman, a dynamic that Wall Street traders call it “buy the rumor, sell the news” could represent a bigger threat.

    The thinking works like this: investors have already front-run aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. So, if the Fed delivers, the rush to take profits could drive stocks lower instead of propelling the main U.S. indexes to new highs. Put another way, many strategists believe investors have already priced in pretty aggressive Fed rate cuts.

    So unless the central bank finds a way to deliver something even greater than what Wall Street is expecting, the main U.S. equity indexes could struggle to continue their advance.

    “Markets are already buying the rumor that we’re going to have a better 2024, that the Fed is going to cut rates, that breadth is going to widen,” Goldman said.

    “Maybe we’re already seeing that priced in.”

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  • These 20 stocks soared the most in 2023

    These 20 stocks soared the most in 2023

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    (Updated with Friday’s closing prices.)

    The 2023 rally for stocks in the U.S. accelerated as more investors bought the idea that the Federal Reserve succeeded in its effort to bring inflation to heel.

    The S&P 500
    SPX
    ended Friday with a 24.2% gain for 2023, following a 19.4% decline in 2022. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends). Among the 500 stocks, 65% were up for 2023. Below is a list of the year’s 20 best performers in the benchmark index.

    This article focuses on large-cap stocks. MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre took a broader look at all U.S. stocks of companies with market capitalizations of at least $1 billion, to list 10 with gains ranging from 412% to 1,924%.

    The Fed began raising short-term interest rates and pushing long-term rates higher in March 2022 by allowing its bond portfolio to run off. That explains the poor performance for stocks in 2022, as bonds and even bank accounts because more attractive to investors.

    The central bank hasn’t raised the federal-funds rate since moving it to the current target range of 5.25% to 5.50% in July, and its economic projections point to three rate cuts in 2024.

    Investors are anticipating the return to a low-rate environment by scooping up 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
    whose yield ended the year at 3.88%, down from 4.84% on Oct. 27 — the day of the S&P 500’s low for the second half of 2023.

    Read: Treasury yields end mostly higher but little changed on year after wild 2023

    Before looking at the list of best-performing stocks of 2023, here’s a summary of how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 performed, with the full index and three more broad indexes at the bottom:

    Sector or index

    2023 price change

    2022 price change

    Price change since end of 2021

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E at end of 2022

    Forward P/E at end of 2023

    Information Technology

    56.4%

    -28.9%

    11.5%

    26.7

    20.0

    28.2

    Communication Services

    54.4%

    -40.4%

    -7.6%

    17.4

    14.3

    21.0

    Consumer Discretionary

    41.0%

    -37.6%

    -11.4%

    26.2

    21.7

    34.7

    Industrials

    16.0%

    -7.1%

    8.0%

    20.0

    18.7

    22.0

    Materials

    10.2%

    -14.1%

    -4.9%

    19.5

    15.8

    16.6

    Financials

    9.9%

    -12.4%

    -3.4%

    14.6

    13.0

    16.3

    Real Estate

    8.3%

    -28.4%

    -21.6%

    18.3

    16.9

    24.7

    Healthcare

    0.3%

    -3.6%

    -3.3%

    18.2

    17.7

    17.3

    Consumer Staples

    -2.2%

    -3.2%

    -5.4%

    19.3

    20.6

    21.4

    Energy

    -4.8%

    59.0%

    51.8%

    10.9

    9.8

    11.1

    Utilities

    -10.2%

    -1.4%

    -11.4%

    15.9

    18.7

    20.4

    S&P 500
    SPX
    24.2%

    -19.4%

    0.4%

    19.7

    16.8

    21.6

    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    13.7%

    -8.8%

    3.8%

    17.6

    16.6

    18.9

    Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    43.4%

    -33.1%

    -3.5%

    26.9

    22.6

    32.0

    Nasdaq-100
    NDX
    53.8%

    -33.0%

    3.5%

    26.3

    20.9

    30.3

    Source: FactSet

    A look at 2023 price action really needs to encompass what took place in 2022 for context. The broad indexes haven’t moved much from their levels at the end of 2022 (again, excluding dividends). We have included current forward price-to-earnings ratios along with those at the end of 2021 and 2022. These valuations have declined a bit, which may provide some comfort for investors wondering how likely it is for stocks to continue to rally in 2024.

    Biggest price increases among the S&P 500

    Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 whose prices rose the most in 2023:

    Company

    Ticker

    2023 price change

    2022 price change

    Price change since end of 2021

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E at end of 2022

    Forward P/E at end of 2021

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    239%

    -50%

    68%

    24.9

    34.4

    58.0

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    -1.22%
    194%

    -64%

    5%

    20.2

    14.7

    23.5

    Royal Caribbean Group

    RCL,
    -0.37%
    162%

    -36%

    68%

    14.3

    14.9

    232.4

    Builders FirstSource Inc.

    BLDR,
    -1.02%
    157%

    -24%

    95%

    14.2

    10.7

    13.3

    Uber Technologies Inc.

    UBER,
    -2.49%
    149%

    -41%

    47%

    56.9

    N/A

    N/A

    Carnival Corp.

    CCL,
    -0.70%
    130%

    -60%

    -8%

    18.7

    41.3

    N/A

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    -0.91%
    128%

    -55%

    2%

    39.7

    17.7

    43.1

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM,
    -0.26%
    127%

    -20%

    81%

    9.1

    6.3

    6.2

    Palo Alto Networks Inc.

    PANW,
    -0.24%
    111%

    -25%

    59%

    50.2

    38.0

    70.1

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    -1.86%
    102%

    -65%

    -29%

    66.2

    22.3

    120.3

    Broadcom Inc.

    AVGO,
    -0.55%
    100%

    -16%

    68%

    23.2

    13.6

    19.8

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM,
    -0.92%
    98%

    -48%

    4%

    28.0

    23.8

    53.5

    Fair Isaac Corp.

    FICO,
    -0.46%
    94%

    38%

    168%

    47.1

    29.3

    28.7

    Arista Networks Inc.

    ANET,
    -0.62%
    94%

    -16%

    64%

    32.7

    22.3

    41.4

    Intel Corp.

    INTC,
    -0.28%
    90%

    -49%

    -2%

    26.6

    14.6

    13.9

    Jabil Inc.

    JBL,
    -0.45%
    87%

    -3%

    81%

    13.5

    7.9

    10.3

    Lam Research Corp.

    LRCX,
    -0.81%
    86%

    -42%

    9%

    25.2

    13.5

    20.2

    ServiceNow Inc.

    NOW,
    +0.57%
    82%

    -40%

    9%

    56.0

    42.6

    90.1

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -0.94%
    81%

    -50%

    -9%

    42.0

    46.7

    64.9

    Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

    MPWR,
    -0.23%
    78%

    -28%

    28%

    49.1

    27.3

    57.9

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: Nvidia tops list of Wall Street’s 20 favorite stocks for 2024

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  • Uber and Lyft shares rallied in 2023 but may not go much higher, analysts say

    Uber and Lyft shares rallied in 2023 but may not go much higher, analysts say

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    Shares of Uber Technologies Inc. and the ride-hailing giant’s smaller rival, Lyft Inc., have sprinted higher this year. But analysts on Friday suggested there might not be much left in the tank for either stock heading into 2024.

    Nomura analysts Anindya Das and Masataka Kunugimoto on Friday downgraded Uber
    UBER,
    -2.49%

    to a neutral rating from buy, arguing that most of the things that could drive the stock higher are already baked into the price. They also downgraded Lyft
    LYFT,
    -3.54%

    to their equivalent of a sell rating from buy, saying the company failed to fully capitalize on the travel industry’s post-pandemic recovery.

    Shares of Uber, which closed out the year up 142%, were down 2.5% on Friday. Lyft’s stock gave up 3.4% and finished 2023 up 34.8%.

    Uber, the analysts said, had managed to grow this year while occasionally turning a profit, and consolidated its grip on the ride-sharing markets in the U.S. and Canada. Meanwhile, Lyft, they said, had stumbled in its efforts to take advantage of the travel rebound after pandemic restrictions eased, cutting more staff this year after doing the same in 2022.

    After years of losing money, they said Uber’s stronger financials this year allowed it to refinance its debt at a lower interest rate and extend the terms of that debt. They noted the company recently joined the S&P 500 Index
    SPX
    and that the market is expecting more stock buybacks from the company, as well as interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year.

    “Thus, most of the milestones and catalysts that we were anticipating to boost Uber’s stock value have been largely met,” they said.

    They added: “At this time, we think most of the catalysts for the stock are already priced in, and Uber is fairly valued at the current price. We therefore downgrade it to Neutral from Buy.”

    Lyft has tried to cut its prices to compete with Uber, and has held off on expanding into areas like food delivery. But as travel demand settles, the analysts suggested, the advantages would still flow to its archrival.

    “We expect 2024 to be more of a ‘normal’ year, in terms of people’s propensity to travel,” the analysts said. “Once the current rebound in travel subsides, we think Lyft’s subscale market positioning, and lack of cross-selling opportunities (unlike Uber), could constrain topline growth for the company.”

    “Offsetting a more moderate pace of ridership growth by raising prices would be challenging for Lyft,” they said, “as we think it would be bound by the actions of its larger and more profitable peer, Uber.”

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  • GE's stock has its best year on record ahead of final breakup

    GE's stock has its best year on record ahead of final breakup

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    General Electric Co. has saved its best year for its last.

    At the beginning of the second quarter, GE’s power and renewable-energy business will be spun off as GE Vernova, while its remaining business will be relaunched as GE Aerospace. That follows the conglomerate’s separation of GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
    GEHC,
    -0.28%

    in December 2022.

    But rather than mourn the final breakup of the 150-year old company, which was co-founded by Thomas Edison, Wall Street cheered like it never had before.

    GE’s stock
    GE,
    -0.54%

    has rocketed 95.1% in 2023 as of afternoon trading Friday. That would be by far the stock’s best year on record, based on available data going back to 1972, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The next best year was 1982, when it gained 65.4%. In comparison, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    has rallied 24.2% this year.

    Read: GE stock sees biggest rally in more than 2 years after a big earnings beat, raised outlook.

    As good as the stock’s performance has been leading up to the breakup, most analysts feel like investors still have more to gain. Keep in mind that in many cases, a company’s parts are worth more individually than they are valued as part of a whole.

    Wells Fargo’s Matthew Akers has a pre-breakup target of $144 on GE’s stock, which implies about 13% upside from current levels.

    “GE combines an attractive business with high aftermarket mix, solid management team with a clean balance sheet, L-T margin upside and built-in catalyst with the Vernova spin in early Q2,” Akers wrote.

    J.P. Morgan’s Seth Seifman said he believes the combined equity values of GE Vernova and GE Aerospace, when including the company’s equity stake in GE HealthCare, is about $149 billion. That compares with GE’s current market capitalization of about $139 billion.

    Of the 18 analysts surveyed by FactSet who cover GE, 12 are bullish and six are neutral, while there are no bears. And the average price target is $139.23, or about 9% above current levels.

    GE’s 2023 marks the culmination of a five-year turnaround for the stock engineered by current Chief Executive Larry Culp, who will remain as CEO of GE Aerospace.

    GE’s stock has nearly tripled in the five years that Larry Culp has been CEO, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin.


    General Electric Co.

    The stock had suffered its worst year ever in 2018, plunging 56.6%, just after it had its fourth-worst year in 2017, when it suffered a 44.8% decline.

    Things got so bad for GE that it got booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    in June 2018, ending a record 111-year run in the blue-chip barometer.

    Culp was named CEO in October 2018. During his tenure, GE’s stock has had only two down years. It fell 3.2% in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the aerospace business, and slumped 11.3% in 2022 as spiking inflation and interest rates fueled fears that a recession was on the horizon.

    But since the end of 2018, GE’s stock has climbed 181%, while the S&P 500 has rallied 90% and the Dow has gained 61%.

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  • Oil prices end lower as crude suffers first losing year since 2020

    Oil prices end lower as crude suffers first losing year since 2020

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    Oil futures ended slightly lower Friday on the final trading day of 2023, capping crude’s first losing year since 2020 as concerns about the demand outlook outweighed potential supply disruptions and efforts by OPEC and its allies to limit production.

    Price action

    • West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery
      CL00,
      -0.45%

      CL.1,
      -0.45%

      CLG24,
      -0.45%

      fell 12 cents, or 0.1%, to close at $71.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    • March Brent crude
      BRN00,
      +0.05%

      BRNH24,
      +0.05%
      ,
      the global benchmark, fell 11 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $77.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

    • Back on Nymex, January gasoline
      RBF24
      rose 0.8% to $2.103 a gallon, while January heating oil
      HOF24
      fell 0.1% to $2.553 a gallon.

    • February natural gas
      NGG24,
      -0.64%

      declined 1.7% to finish at $2.514 per million British thermal units.

    Market drivers

    WTI, the U.S. benchmark, slumped 21.1% in the fourth quarter and suffered a yearly fall of 10.7%. Brent tumbled over 19% in the final three months of the year, posting an annual loss of 10.3%.

    Gasoline futures dropped 14.5% in 2023, while heating oil declined 24.1%. Natural gas plunged nearly 44%.

    Crude had rallied over the summer as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, maintained production cuts, with Saudi Arabia throwing in a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels a day beginning in July and Russia moving to curb exports. While production cuts have been rolled over into early 2024, oil peaked in late September as expectations for a significant supply deficit failed to materialize.

    Increased production by the U.S., which saw its output hit record levels in 2023, and other non-OPEC producers have also capped the upside for crude, analysts said.

    Read: Why oil may not see a return to $100 a barrel in 2024

    Oil futures jumped in the wake of the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October on fears that a broader conflict could cramp supplies from the Middle East, but crude failed to challenge its September highs and soon eroded its geopolitical-risk premium. Prices bounced somewhat in December as attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels on shipping vessels in the Red Sea sparked a round of rerouting, but gains have proven difficult to sustain.

    Instead, investors “have started to focus on the risk that there may be excessive supply in oil markets next year, and insufficient demand,” said Marios Hadjikyriacos, senior investment analyst at XM, in a note.

    “Even though OPEC+ has taken repeated steps to rein in production and support prices, it is unlikely to pursue the same strategy for much longer, as it would forfeit more market share to U.S. producers who have dialed up their own production to record levels,” he wrote.

    Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, have slumped recently on a warmer-than-normal winter, said Lu Ming Pang, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, in a Friday note.

    The number of heating-degree days (HDDs), which reflect the extent of heating required, has been below normal so far, with a deviation of 28 fewer HDDs from the normal reported on Dec. 15, the analyst noted. HDDs are forecast to rise through Jan. 5 but remain slightly below normal.

    “Gas demand for heating is likely to rise as a result but will still remain below seasonal norms,” Pang said. “A combination of warmer weather, high underground-storage levels, and high domestic gas production is expected to keep U.S. prices suppressed.”

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  • Falling behind on retirement savings? 4 steps to get back on track in 2024.

    Falling behind on retirement savings? 4 steps to get back on track in 2024.

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    For a substantial number of people approaching retirement, the future looks grim. Their savings rate is low, their anxiety level is high and they aren’t even sure they’ll be able to retire at all.

    More than one in five adults — 22% — have no retirement savings, according to AARP. Meanwhile, 64% are worried that they will not have enough money in their later years, and 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they will need to work at least part-time in retirement for financial reasons, AARP said.

    “It’s a public health crisis. Many people don’t have any retirement savings. People feel lousy — that they haven’t done enough — and say, ‘There’s nothing I can do about it.’ They put their head in the sand and try not to think about it,” said Mary Liz Burns, senior director of communications strategy at AARP.

    To raise awareness and in hopes of reversing this trend, AARP, the lobbying group focused on issues facing older adults, has launched a public service campaign with the Ad Council called “This is Pretirement.” The campaign is aimed at people who might feel invisible as they grapple with the stress of financing retirement, Burns said.

    “The average American is having a tough time saving. They’re not alone — there are many, many people in that same position,” Burns said. “There’s no judgment about what you have or haven’t done.”

    The multi-year “pretirement” campaign started in November and will continue to roll out to more markets and media outlets including TV, radio and social media. 

    The ads encourage pre-retirees to face the daunting aspects of saving for retirement. There’s also a website, ThisIsPretirement.org, that features free tips, resources and tools. Near-retirees can take a quiz and get a recommended action plan.

    “Think about actions you’re taking that may be harming you, such as carrying over credit-card debt each month. Think about the steps you can take to start,” Burns said.

    “Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen.”

    Where to start? 

    First, experts say you should create a budget that includes your income and all your expenses. You can do this on your own or with a financial adviser. 

    “Make sure you have a plan. If you don’t do the planning, you really won’t have a successful retirement,”  said David Schneider, founder of Schneider Wealth Strategies.

    JB Beckett, founder of the Beckett Financial Group, suggested working with a financial adviser who can examine your tax strategies, insurance coverage, Social Security strategy and healthcare expenses with an eye toward longevity and the unknown.

    And Joel Russo, founder of N.J. Retirement Planning, noted that retirement can last a long time. “A lifetime these days can be 100-plus years. People think retirement isn’t going to be that long, but it can last 30 years or more. That’s hard to finance without a comprehensive plan,” he said.

    Advisers need to look at a client’s whole situation to see the reasons someone may not be saving enough money.

    “People aren’t saving enough. But why aren’t they saving enough? What else is going on for them that they can’t?” Russo said. Getting an overview of your budget and your expenses can show you where your money is going.

    Catch up on contributions

    “Your 50s are a really important time to be very serious,” Schneider said. “Hunker down and get serious. Every investment needs to be prudent and diversified. Increase any savings, if possible. Make catch-up contributions, if possible.”

    Starting at age 50, you can make extra investments called catch-up contributions to your 401(k) and individual retirement accounts. In 2024, the 401(k) contribution limit will be $23,000, but catch-up contributions will allow you to save an additional $7,500. For IRAs, the contribution limit is $7,000, with a catch-up contribution of $1,000.

    Check in with Social Security

    As you work on your long-term plan, get your Social Security statement from SSA.gov and check it for errors. This will let you make sure you’re receiving credit for all your work over the years and find out where you stand with Social Security benefits, Schneider said.

    And because the last 10 to 15 years of your career are often peak earnings years, Beckett said to take advantage of savings opportunities to maximize your retirement efforts and minimize your expenditures.

    “You’re entering that retirement red zone in the last 10 to 15 years. If you haven’t saved enough, [then] cut expenses and save as much as you can,” he said. “Be careful not to spend too much. Don’t celebrate and buy a car when you get a promotion and end up with a $1,000 car payment. Use that extra money to sock away more money. Use science and math when it comes to money. Don’t get emotional with money.”

    It’s also crucial to prepare for the cost of long-term care.

    “The one thing that can erode an estate is long-term care,” said Eric Bond, wealth manager with Bond Wealth Management. “You might have $300,000 for long-term care, but that needs to be $500,000. It’s the most unsexy thing in the world to plan for, but you have to.”

    Earn more, save more

    You can also think about leveraging your experience and skills to get a higher-paying job that can help you close that savings gap, Bond said.

    “The best way to save more is to earn more. Try to make as much money as you can. Your job is to get another job that pays more,” he said. “In the past, pensions would keep people at companies longer. But now you can’t rely on a company that way.”

    Dial up retirement savings

    “Just try saving a little extra,” Bond said. “If you find you’re only eating mac and cheese, scale it back.”

    Bond also cautioned against borrowing or taking out a mortgage to fund your kids’ college education.

    “They can get just as good a job coming out of a state school. College is college. Unless [they’re] going to be a doctor, an attorney or an engineer — fine. But don’t sell your house or downsize to pay for college,” Bond said.

    Being open to continuing to work — even doing part-time or consulting work — can help you stretch your retirement nest egg. And working in your retirement years, if you’re healthy enough to do so, can provide not just extra income, but also routine and stimulation, which can be crucial for mental health.

    In the end, your retirement is likely going to be financed by your own savings and investments. So squirrel away as much as possible.

    “You only get one shot at retirement,” Beckett said. “There’s a retirement crisis out there. People need to save more — and save even more than they think.”  

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