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Kevin McCarthy won’t run for House speaker again, says he has no regrets

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Hours after being ousted as speaker of the House, Rep. Kevin McCarthy said he was “at peace” with how it played out and that he “wouldn’t change a thing.”

The California Republican said at a press conference Tuesday evening that he will not run for speaker again. He added that he hadn’t though about resigning from Congress.

Read more: Kevin McCarthy ousted: Here’s who could replace him as House speaker

McCarthy said he had no regrets: “I don’t regret standing up for choosing government over grievance. It is my responsibility. It is my job. I do not regret negotiating. Our government is designed to find compromise. I don’t regret my efforts to build coalitions and find solutions. I was raised to solve problems not create them.”

““I may have lost this vote today, but as I walk out of this chamber I feel fortunate to have served … I wouldn’t change a thing.””

— Rep. Kevin McCarthy

McCarthy lashed out at Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who led the effort to oust him as speaker. “It had nothing to do about spending,” McCarthy said. “It was all about getting attention.”

As for the eight hardline Republicans who voted against him, McCarthy said “They don’t get to say they’re conservative because they’re angry and chaotic.”

He also blamed Democrats for his ouster, and said the current system in the House of Representatives is broken. “My fear is the institution fell today, because you can’t do the job,” he said.

“Unfortunately, 4 percent of our conference can join all the Democrats and dictate who can be the Republican speaker in this House.”

When asked if he had any advice for the next speaker, McCarthy said: “Change the rules.”

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October 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker: Here’s who could replace him

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Kevin McCarthy has been ousted as speaker of the House of Representatives, and he said Tuesday night that he won’t try to reclaim his post. So who might replace him?

That person, and the return of stability to Capitol Hill after an historic measure to take the speaker’s gavel from McCarthy, could help calm markets, analysts say. But the process of settling on a new speaker could drag out longer than markets would like.

Here are the names of a few candidates to watch:

Steve Scalise

Matt Gaetz, the Florida Republican who led the charge to oust McCarthy, said he was open to supporting Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana. Scalise is the No. 2 House Republican but is also undergoing treatment for blood cancer. Gaetz said that treatment wasn’t a factor in his support.

Tom Emmer

Minnesota Republican Tom Emmer is the House’s No. 3 Republican and has been mentioned by other members as a potential replacement. Some of the GOP’s hard-right faction have said Emmer would deliver more conservative results for the party, according to a Washington Post report.

Emmer is a cryptocurrency
BTCUSD,
-0.29%
supporter and co-chairman of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus.

Patrick McHenry

Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican who leads the House Financial Services Committee, is another possibility. He was one of the negotiators of the deal with the Biden administration to raise the debt ceiling — which could actually hurt him with some conservatives.

McHenry is now speaker pro tempore, or temporary speaker, until the election of a new speaker.

Elise Stefanik

New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is the House GOP Conference Chair, the highest-ranking Republican woman in Congress. She is close to former President Donald Trump.

The fight over McCarthy’s speakership played out after lawmakers extended until Nov. 17 funding for the federal government. The move avoided a shutdown but only kicks the funding can down the road. It’s unclear how long it will take to elect a new speaker, but having the battle now keeps it distanced from a key deadline.

“From a governance standpoint, having this fight early in the government-funding window is far better than on the eve of November 17 when funding expires,” said Chris Krueger of TD Cowen, in a note.

Also read: What McCarthy’s ouster means for markets as investors fret over congressional ‘dysfunction’

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October 3, 2023
What McCarthy ouster means for markets as investors fret over congressional ‘dysfunction’

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Another round of political infighting that ended up spelling the end of Kevin McCarthy’s short tenure as House speaker on Tuesday wasn’t the primary driver of a selloff in stocks and bonds — but it didn’t help, analysts said.

Continued dysfunction in Congress goes a long way toward explaining why the bond market has been ”out of sorts,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, in emailed comments.

As the House began to vote on a motion by Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida to remove McCarthy from the speakership, stocks closed sharply lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
fell more than 430 points, or 1.3%, to wipe out its 2023 gain, while the S&P 500
SPX
posted its lowest close since June 1.

The drop came in response to a continued surge in Treasury yields that saw the rate on the 10-year note
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
end above 4.80% at its highest since August 2007. Yields and debt prices move opposite each other.

See: Rising Treasury yields are upsetting financial markets. Here’s why.

McCarthy, a California Republican, lost the gavel as 216 members of the House voted in favor of ousting him while 210 supported him in a historic challenge.

Read: Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker, falling after historic challenge by Matt Gaetz

Analysts have pointed to a number of factors behind the continued climb in yields, including the Federal Reserve signaling last month that rates could stay high through 2024 and beyond.

But market watchers said continued drama in Washington is doing nothing to soothe market volatility, with the showdown over McCarthy’s fate the result of a last-minute deal over the weekend that saw lawmakers temporarily avert a government shutdown. The latest turmoil comes just months after a debt-ceiling showdown that put the U.S. government on the brink of a first-ever default.

“Investors are sick and tired of being jerked around with out of control spending, the inability to govern, and the constant dragging of markets to the edge of economic calamity with shutdowns and debt ceiling nonsense,” Cox wrote.

McCarthy’s removal means a mid-November government shutdown, when stopgap funding runs out, is now an 80% probability, said Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, in a note.

“[I]t’s not a one-off shutdown markets should be concerned about, but increased volatility for at least 3 months where markets won’t know final decisions on U.S. government annual spending, particularly in government-dependent sectors including defense, semiconductors, and healthcare,” Haines said.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warned that the ”more dysfunctional” Congress appears, ”the higher yields go and the more stocks drop.”

”So, while congressional dysfunction isn’t the main reason yields are volatile, it is a contributor and the sooner Washington removes itself from the market dialogue, the better,” he said in a Tuesday morning note.

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October 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker: Here’s who could replace him

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Kevin McCarthy has been ousted as speaker of the House of Representatives, and he said Tuesday night that he won’t try to reclaim his post. So who might replace him?

That person, and the return of stability to Capitol Hill after an historic measure to take the speaker’s gavel from McCarthy, could help calm markets, analysts say. But the process of settling on a new speaker could drag out longer than markets would like.

Here are the names of a few candidates to watch:

Steve Scalise

Matt Gaetz, the Florida Republican who led the charge to oust McCarthy, said he was open to supporting Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana. Scalise is the No. 2 House Republican but is also undergoing treatment for blood cancer. Gaetz said that treatment wasn’t a factor in his support.

Tom Emmer

Minnesota Republican Tom Emmer is the House’s No. 3 Republican and has been mentioned by other members as a potential replacement. Some of the GOP’s hard-right faction have said Emmer would deliver more conservative results for the party, according to a Washington Post report.

Emmer is a cryptocurrency
BTCUSD,
+0.94%
supporter and co-chairman of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus.

Patrick McHenry

Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican who leads the House Financial Services Committee, is another possibility. He was one of the negotiators of the deal with the Biden administration to raise the debt ceiling — which could actually hurt him with some conservatives.

McHenry is now speaker pro tempore, or temporary speaker, until the election of a new speaker.

Elise Stefanik

New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is the House GOP Conference Chair, the highest-ranking Republican woman in Congress. She is close to former President Donald Trump.

The fight over McCarthy’s speakership played out after lawmakers extended until Nov. 17 funding for the federal government. The move avoided a shutdown but only kicks the funding can down the road. It’s unclear how long it will take to elect a new speaker, but having the battle now keeps it distanced from a key deadline.

“From a governance standpoint, having this fight early in the government-funding window is far better than on the eve of November 17 when funding expires,” said Chris Krueger of TD Cowen, in a note.

Also read: What McCarthy’s ouster means for markets as investors fret over congressional ‘dysfunction’

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October 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker, falling after historic challenge by Matt Gaetz

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The U.S. House of Representatives removed Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his post on Tuesday, as 216 members of his chamber voted in favor of ousting him while 210 supported him.

Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida led the challenge against his fellow Republican, filing what’s known as a “motion to vacate” late Monday, after McCarthy relied on House Democrats to pass a short-term measure that averted a partial government shutdown.

“I don’t think voting against Kevin McCarthy is chaos,” Gaetz said in a speech Tuesday on the House floor. “I think $33 trillion in debt is chaos. I think that facing a $2.2 trillion annual deficit is chaos. I think that not passing single-subject spending bills is chaos.”

The Florida congressman had said on Sunday that he expected Democrats were “going to bail out” McCarthy, meaning support him enough to offset the opposition from Gaetz and some other Republicans, but the vote didn’t play out that way.

Eight Republicans joined with all Democrats to vote against McCarthy. The eight were Andy Biggs of Arizona, Ken Buck of Colorado, Tim Burchett of Tennessee, Eli Crane of Arizona, Gaetz, Bob Good of Virginia, Nancy Mace of South Carolina and Matt Rosendale of Montana. There were a few lawmakers who were absent, such as Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, McCarthy’s predecessor.

See: Kevin McCarthy’s House speakership appears in peril with Democrats ‘not saving’ him

GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is now serving as the speaker pro tempore, or temporary speaker.

Until now, no House speaker had ever been removed by a motion to vacate. The move requires a simple majority of the House to succeed and can be triggered by a single member.

Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who has been the No. 3 House Republican, was among the GOP lawmakers who spoke in favor of McCarthy.

“Under Speaker McCarthy’s leadership, our House Republican majority has actually defied all odds and over-performed expectations again and again and again,” Emmer said on the House floor.

There has been a view among analysts that a divided Washington’s spending might not change that much even if Gaetz managed to oust McCarthy, as MarketWatch reported.

About 80% of Congress looks likely to vote for a spending deal that would call for some increases in outlays, Ukraine aid, money for the U.S.-Mexico border and a new commission on the nation’s debt, said Chris Krueger, managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, in a note. That agreement would come around when a new deadline of Nov. 17 hits.

U.S. stocks
SPX

DJIA

COMP
could end up taking a hit from the House’s drama, according to Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, Brian Gardner.

“Removing Mr. McCarthy as Speaker could fuel temporary risk-off sentiment in the markets,” Gardner wrote in a note Tuesday. He suggested that markets “might react negatively to government dysfunction.”

Stocks closed sharply lower Tuesday, after a report on job openings showed the labor market remains tight, leaving room for more interest-rate hikes.

Read more: What McCarthy ouster means for markets as investors fret over congressional ‘dysfunction’

A motion to vacate last went to a House vote in 1910, with then-Speaker Joseph Cannon surviving it and staying on as the chamber’s leader. Such a motion was filed in July 2015 against then-Speaker John Boehner and not voted on by the House at that time, but Boehner went on to announce his resignation in September 2015.

In addition, a motion to vacate was considered in 1997 but ultimately not used by a small group of House Republicans who had grown disgruntled with the leadership of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Now read: Kevin McCarthy ousted: Here’s who could replace him as House speaker

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October 3, 2023

These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

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Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.

First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500

have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.

Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.

Sector or index	2023 return	2022 return	Return since end of 2021	1 week return	1 month return
Utilities	-18.4%	1.6%	-17.2%	-11.1%	-9.6%
Real Estate	-7.1%	-26.1%	-31.4%	-3.0%	-8.8%
Consumer Staples	-5.4%	-0.6%	-6.0%	-2.2%	-4.4%
Healthcare	-4.2%	-2.0%	-6.1%	-1.7%	-3.3%
Financials	-2.5%	-10.5%	-12.7%	-2.5%	-4.7%
Materials	1.3%	-12.3%	-11.2%	-1.9%	-7.0%
Industrials	3.5%	-5.5%	-2.1%	-1.8%	-7.3%
Energy	4.0%	65.7%	72.4%	-1.9%	-1.4%
Consumer Discretionary	27.0%	-37.0%	-20.0%	-0.6%	-5.2%
Information Technology	36.5%	-28.2%	-2.0%	0.8%	-5.9%
Communication Services	42.5%	-39.9%	-14.3%	1.1%	-1.3%

S&P 500	13.1%	-18.1%	-7.4%	-1.1%	-4.9%
DJ Industrial Average	2.5%	-6.9%	-4.5%	-1.7%	-4.0%
Nasdaq Composite Index COMP	28.0%	-32.5%	-13.7%	0.3%	-5.1%
Nasdaq-100 Index	36.5%	-32.4%	-7.7%	0.5%	-4.2%
Source: FactSet

Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.

On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.

Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes

jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds

rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.

Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007

The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills

yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.

Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”

Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:

Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg

Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.

This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.

We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.

Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.

Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:

Sector or index	Current P/E to 5-year average	Current P/E to 10-year average	Current P/E to 15-year average	Forward P/E	5-year average P/E	10-year average P/E	15-year average P/E
Utilities	82%	86%	95%	14.99	18.30	17.40	15.82
Real Estate	76%	80%	81%	15.19	19.86	18.89	18.72
Consumer Staples	93%	96%	105%	18.61	19.92	19.30	17.64
Healthcare	103%	104%	115%	16.99	16.46	16.34	14.72
Financials	88%	92%	97%	12.90	14.65	14.08	13.26
Materials	100%	103%	111%	16.91	16.98	16.42	15.27
Industrials	88%	96%	105%	17.38	19.84	18.16	16.56
Energy	106%	63%	73%	11.78	11.17	18.80	16.23
Consumer Discretionary	79%	95%	109%	24.09	30.41	25.39	22.10
Information Technology	109%	130%	146%	24.20	22.17	18.55	16.54
Communication Services	86%	86%	94%	16.41	19.09	19.00	17.43

S&P 500	94%	101%	112%	17.94	19.01	17.76	16.04
DJ Industrial Average	93%	98%	107%	16.25	17.49	16.54	15.17
Nasdaq Composite Index	92%	102%	102%	24.62	26.71	24.18	24.18
Nasdaq-100 Index	97%	110%	126%	24.40	25.23	22.14	19.43

There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.

If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.

A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.

We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:

Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.
“Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.

Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.

There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:

Company	Ticker	Current P/E to 5-year average	Current P/E to 10-year average	Current P/E to 15-year average
SolarEdge Technologies Inc.	SEDG	89%	N/A	N/A
AES Corp.	AES	66%	75%	90%
Insulet Corp.	PODD	18%	N/A	N/A
United Airlines Holdings Inc.	UAL	42%	50%	N/A
Alaska Air Group Inc.	ALK	51%	57%	N/A
Tapestry Inc.	TPR	39%	49%	70%
Albemarle Corp.	ALB	39%	50%	73%
Delta Air Lines Inc.	DAL	60%	63%	21%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.	ARE	59%	68%	N/A
Las Vegas Sands Corp.	LVS	96%	78%	53%
Paycom Software Inc.	PAYC	61%	N/A	N/A
PayPal Holdings Inc.	PYPL	33%	N/A	N/A
SBA Communications Corp. Class A	SBAC	27%	N/A	N/A
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	AMD	58%	39%	N/A
LKQ Corp.	LKQ	92%	44%	78%
Charles Schwab Corp.	SCHW	75%	54%	73%
PulteGroup Inc.	PHM	94%	47%	N/A
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.	LW	71%	N/A	N/A
News Corp Class A	NWSA	93%	73%	N/A
CVS Health Corp.	CVS	75%	61%	67%
Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

News Corp
NWSA
is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.

Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:

Company	Ticker	Share “buy” ratings	Oct. 2 price	Consensus price target	Implied 12-month upside potential
SolarEdge Technologies Inc.	SEDG	74%	$122.56	$268.77	119%
AES Corp.	AES	79%	$14.16	$25.60	81%
Insulet Corp.	PODD	68%	$165.04	$279.00	69%
United Airlines Holdings Inc.	UAL	71%	$41.62	$69.52	67%
Alaska Air Group Inc.	ALK	87%	$36.83	$61.31	66%
Tapestry Inc.	TPR	75%	$28.58	$46.21	62%
Albemarle Corp.	ALB	81%	$162.41	$259.95	60%
Delta Air Lines Inc.	DAL	95%	$36.45	$58.11	59%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.	ARE	100%	$98.18	$149.45	52%
Las Vegas Sands Corp.	LVS	72%	$45.70	$68.15	49%
Paycom Software Inc.	PAYC	77%	$260.04	$384.89	48%
PayPal Holdings Inc.	PYPL	69%	$58.56	$86.38	48%
SBA Communications Corp. Class A	SBAC	68%	$198.24	$276.69	40%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	AMD	74%	$103.27	$143.07	39%
LKQ Corp.	LKQ	82%	$49.13	$67.13	37%
Charles Schwab Corp.	SCHW	77%	$53.55	$72.67	36%
PulteGroup Inc.	PHM	81%	$73.22	$98.60	35%
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.	LW	100%	$92.23	$123.50	34%
News Corp Class A	NWSA	78%	$20.00	$26.42	32%
CVS Health Corp.	CVS	77%	$69.69	$90.88	30%
Source: FactSet

A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.

Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market

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October 3, 2023

Japanese yen sees wild swing amid intervention fears after falling to nearly 1-year low versus dollar

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The Japanese yen roared back violently against the dollar Tuesday amid fears of intervention by Tokyo after trading at its weakest in nearly a year after a round of strong U.S. employment data.

The U.S. dollar fetched 148.92 Japanese yen
USDJPY,
-0.42%,
down 0.6%, after trading as low as 147.415 yen in a sharp tumble from a session high of 150.18 yen. The dollar hadn’t traded above the 150-yen level since Oct. 21, 2022, according to FactSet data.

Japanese authorities in the fall of 2022 intervened in the market, selling dollars and buying yen as the Japanese currency slumped. Currency traders had been on the lookout for renewed intervention as the yen extended its recent weakness. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has issued several verbal warnings over recent weeks, but they have failed to arrest the yen’s fall.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki earlier Tuesday had warned that “all measures are on the table with a high sense of urgency,” according to Nikkei.

But FX analysts were skeptical the yen’s bounceback was due to intervention.

“Talk of intervention but I am skeptical. It seems like the market is doing it to itself with orders to sell dollar above JPY150. BOJ intervened three times last year, none was during US time zone,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, in a note to clients.

The dollar had initially extended its rally versus the yen and other major currencies after data showed U.S. job openings jumped unexpectedly to 9.6 million in September, up from a revised 8.9 million in August. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 8.8 million.

Continued strength in the labor market added to a rise in Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
which in turn boosted the dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
DXY,
a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, remained up 0.1% at 107.06, after trading at its highest since November.

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October 3, 2023

Boohoo Cuts Revenue Views on Slower Volume Recovery

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By Michael Susin

Boohoo Group has downgraded its fiscal 2024 revenue targets on slower-than-expected sales volume recovery, and reported a widened pretax loss for the first half.

The London-listed online fashion retailer said Tuesday that it expects revenue for the year ending Feb. 28 to decline by 12% to 17%, compared with previous guidance of flat growth or a fall of up to 5%.

Despite the revenue slip, the company continues to expect adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization–which strips out exceptional and other one-off items–margins to be between 4% and 4.5%, given the progress made on gross margin and cost control.

Boohoo backed its adjusted Ebitda target of between 58 million pounds to 70 million pounds ($70.1 million and $84.6 million), while capital expenditure is expected to be around GBP75 million.

The company also reported a pretax loss for the six months ended Aug. 31 of GBP26.4 million, compared with a loss of GBP15.2 million for the same period a year ago.

Revenue fell to GBP729.1 million from GBP882.4 million, with U.K. sales down 19% and international sales down 15%.

The drop was driven by a 10% revenue fall in core brands, consistent with guidance as the group targeted more profitable sales.

Boohoo added that inventory significantly reduced, down GBP94 million, or 35%, on year.

“Our confidence in the medium-term prospects for the group remains unchanged as we execute on our key priorities where we see a clear path to improved profitability and getting back to growth,” Chief Executive John Lyttle said.

Write to Michael Susin at michael.susin@wsj.com

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October 3, 2023

Matt Gaetz files motion to oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker

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Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida filed a resolution late Monday to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a fellow Republican, from his post as their chamber’s leader.

The congressman had promised to make the move against McCarthy after the speaker on Saturday relied on the support of House Democrats to pass a short-term measure that averted a partial government shutdown. McCarthy had responded to Gaetz’s challenge by saying “Bring it on.”

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October 2, 2023
Jets-Chiefs is highest-rated TV show since the Super Bowl, thanks to Taylor Swift and 2 million more female viewers
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Taylor Swift continues to boost the NFL’s profile.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football game between the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 27 million viewers, making it the most-watched TV show since Super Bowl LVII in February, according to NBC’s PR team.
Swift attended the Chiefs’ 23-20 win and was shown on the television broadcast several times, alongside celebrities Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds. Swift has a new public friendship and rumored relationship with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, and the interest in that topic has led to increases in TV ratings for the two games Swift has attended, and to boosts in sales of NFL merchandise.

Swift’s massive fanbase has influence across all ages and all types of people, but she is particularly popular among women and girls, and that group is who propelled NBC
CMCSA,
+0.34%
and Sunday Night Football to such lofty viewership heights.

“Viewership among teen girls (age 12-17) spiked 53% from the season-to-date average of the first three weeks of SNF, while the audience among women aged 18-24 was up 24%, and women 35+ increased 34%,” NBC said. “The collective growth resulted in an approximate viewership increase of more than 2 million female viewers.”

Viewership peaked at an estimated 29.4 million viewers between 9:30 and 9:45 p.m. Eastern, as the Jets attempted to claw their way back in the second quarter of the game. Last year’s Sunday Night Football games averaged 19.9 million viewers, according to same-day data released by Nielsen and digital data from Adobe Analytics.

In preparation for Swift’s attendance, NBC used a Swift song, “Welcome to New York,” as the theme music for its video promo of the game, which was viewed roughly 8 million times.

Since Swift was first linked to Kelce, the Chiefs tight end has enjoyed the Taylor Swift effect. For example:

The “New Heights with Jason and Travis Kelce” podcast, featuring Kelce and his brother, shot up to No. 1 on Apple’s podcast charts last week.

Kelce’s social-media influence has flourished, with his Instagram followers jumping from 2.7 million followers to 3.8 million in about two weeks.

Kelce had one of the top five highest-selling NFL jerseys last week, and sales of Kelce merchandise spiked 400% on Fanatics, the NFL’s official merchandise seller.

See also: Want to watch every NFL game this season? Here’s how much it will cost you.
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October 2, 2023
U.S. stocks have had a great year in 2023 — but these numbers tell a different story

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U.S. stocks have risen sharply in 2023, with a small number of technology companies driving an ever-increasing share of the stock-market gains.

While the 11.7% year-to-date gains for the large-cap benchmark S&P 500 index
SPX
show 2023 has been a “good year” for stocks, that hardly tells the whole story, said Jonathan Krinsky, the technical strategist at BTIG.

The U.S. stock market has seen the median return for shares in the S&P 500 index rise merely 1.1% in 2023, which is “a different planet” compared with their median gain of 16.2% in 2014, when the benchmark index recorded a yearly advance of 11.4%, Krinsky said in a Sunday note (see chart below).

SOURCE: BTIG ANALYSIS, BLOOMBERG

The Russell 3000
RUA
— a barometer that represents approximately 98% of the American equities — had a median return of negative 2.2% this year, but the index has gained 11.3% year to date, wrote Krinsky, citing BTIG and Bloomberg data. In 2014, the median return for the Russell 3000 was 6.9%, and it recorded a yearly gain of 10.4%.

Meanwhile, the median year-to-date return for stocks in the S&P 1500, which includes all shares in the S&P 500, S&P 400
MID
and S&P 600
SML
and covers approximately 90% of U.S. stocks, rose a merely 0.1% versus the index’s 11.2% advance this year, said Krinsky. The S&P 1500 recorded a median return of 8.8% in 2014 and was up 10.9%.

See: ‘Anxiety’ high as stock market falls, bond yields rise — what investors need to know after S&P 500’s worst month of 2023

So far in 2023, investors have struggled to brush off a rise in Treasury yields primarily triggered by the Federal Reserve bumping up interest rates and the risk of recession, with hope that the stock-market rally hasn’t run out of steam yet.

However, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP
Friday locked in their worst month of the year, down 4.9% and 5.8%, respectively, according to FactSet data.

Treasury yields continued to rise on Monday with the yield on the 2-year
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
up 6.4 basis points to 5.110%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
jumped 11 basis points to 4.682%. The 10-year rate ended at its highest level since Oct. 12, 2007, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

See: U.S. stock-market seasonality suggests a potential rally in the fourth quarter. Why this time might be different.

As a result, investors were hoping October and the last quarter of 2023 could bring some relief to the scorching summer selloff they had to endure in markets. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index up nearly 80% dating back to 1950 and gaining more than 4% on average, according to data compiled by Carson Group.

“It seems to us that a rally [in the fourth quarter] is the consensus view based on the fact that seasonals tend to work that way,” Krinsky said. “While October is a strong month on ‘average’, it has been down ten of the last 30 years, with eight of those years losing 1.77% or more.”

In other words, when October is good it tends to be really good, but when it’s bad it tends to be quite bad, Krinsky added.

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 ended flat and the Nasdaq edged up 0.7%, according to FactSet data.

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October 2, 2023
Stocks end mostly higher Monday despite resumed U.S. debt selloff

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Stocks closed mostly higher to kick off October as a sharp selloff in longer-dated U.S. government debt resumed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.22%
fell about 74 points, or 0.2%, ending near 33,433, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.01%
ended flat at 4,288, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+0.67%
gained 0.7%. Surging long-term borrowing costs remain a key focus in the final quarter of 2023, with the fear being they could derail the U.S. economy and spark more corporate defaults. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was punching higher to about 4.682% on Monday. Evidence of the debt rout could be found in the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF,
TLT,
-1.98%
which cemented its lowest close since since August 2007 and in the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF,
AGG,
-0.70%
which finished at its lowest since October 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors in short U.S. government T-bills, however, have been mostly insulated from recent volatility, with yields steady in the 5.5% range, according to TradeWeb data.

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October 2, 2023
GameStop’s stock on pace for lowest close in two-and-a-half-years

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Shares of GameStop Corp. fell 6.9% Monday and are trading at $15.33, putting the stock on pace for its lowest close since Feb. 23, 2021, when it closed at $11.24, FactSet data show.

The stock, which is down for four of the last five days, is on pace for its largest percent decrease since June 8, 2023, when it fell 17.89%, according to FactSet.

Related: GameStop’s stock soars after activist investor Ryan Cohen named CEO

Activist investor Ryan Cohen was named CEO of GameStop
GME,
-6.59%
last week, marking the latest chapter in his attempt to breathe new life into the video-game retailer and original meme-stock company.

Cohen, the co-founder and former CEO of Chewy Inc.
CHWY,
+1.92%,
made his first investment in GameStop in August 2020 via his investment firm RC Ventures. News of Cohen’s 9% stake in the gaming retailer sent its stock surging. The activist investor quickly began pushing for an overhaul of GameStop, with a focus on digital sales, and he joined the company’s board in January 2021. He consolidated his power at GameStop when he became the company’s chairman in June 2021.

Ryan Cohen becomes GameStop CEO and social media reacts: ‘Changing the paradigm on Wall Street’

In its statement announcing Cohen’s election as CEO, GameStop confirmed that he will not receive compensation for serving as the company’s president, chief executive and chairman.

The video game retailer reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last month, boosted by international sales and what the company described as “a significant software release.” GameStop is also ramping up its efforts to control costs.

Ryan Cohen has no ‘new idea’: Analyst blasts ‘doomed’ GameStop after leadership announcement

GameStop shares are down 17% in 2023, compared with the S&P 500 Index’s
SPX
gain of 11.2%.

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October 2, 2023
U.S. stocks open mostly lower as Treasury yields jump after Washington averts government shutdown

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U.S. stock indexes opened mostly lower to start the month as Treasury yields resumed their climbs after U.S. legislators were able to reach a temporary agreement that averted a government shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.11%
dropped 47 points, or 0.1%, to 33,463, while the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.24%
was off 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+1.06%
was nearly flat. The U.S. Senate on Saturday night, with mere hours left before a midnight deadline for a federal government shutdown, voted to advance a short-term stopgap funding measure, which was then signed by President Joe Biden into law. The bill keeps the government open for 45 more days, an extended period that lawmakers can use to finalize funding legislation. The yield on the 2-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD02Y,
5.115%
added 8 basis points to 5.113% on Monday morning, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
4.669%
rose 7 basis points to 4.645%. Investors awaited a number of Fed speakers, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker expected to make comments at a community event in York, Pennsylvania, at 11 a.m.

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October 2, 2023
Nobel Prize in medicine awarded to two scientists whose work enabled creation of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19

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STOCKHOLM (AP) — Two scientists won the Nobel Prize in medicine on Monday for discoveries that enabled the development of effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.

The award was given to Katalin Karikó, a professor at Sagan’s University in Hungary and an adjunct professor at the University of Pennsylvania, and Drew Weissman, who performed his prizewinning research together with Karikó at the University of Pennsylvania.

“Through their groundbreaking findings, which have fundamentally changed our understanding of how mRNA interacts with our immune system, the laureates contributed to the unprecedented rate of vaccine development during one of the greatest threats to human health in modern times,” the panel that awarded the prize said.

Thomas Perlmann, secretary of the Nobel Assembly, announced the award and said both scientists were “overwhelmed” by news of the prize when he contacted them shortly before the announcement.

The Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine was won last year by Swedish scientist Svante Paabo for discoveries in human evolution that unlocked secrets of Neanderthal DNA which provided key insights into our immune system, including our vulnerability to severe COVID-19.

The award was the second in the family. Paabo’s father, Sune Bergstrom, won the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1982.

Nobel announcements continue with the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday and the economics award on Oct. 9.

The prizes carry a cash award of 11 million Swedish kronor ($1 million). The money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1896.

The prize money was raised by 1 million kronor this year because of the plunging value of the Swedish currency.

The laureates are invited to receive their awards at ceremonies on Dec. 10, the anniversary of Nobel’s death. The prestigious peace prize is handed out in Oslo, according to his wishes, while the other award ceremony is held in Stockholm.

Corder reported from The Hague, Netherlands.

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October 2, 2023

BBVA to Launch $1.1 Bln Buyback After ECB Approval

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By Adria Calatayud

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is launching a share buyback program of up to 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) after it received authorization from the European Central Bank.

The Spanish bank said Monday that the buyback program, under which it intends to repurchase up to 564.6 million shares, will start Monday and end no later than September 2024.

BBVA said in July it had requested ECB authorization to launch a buyback program alongside its second-quarter results.

Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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October 1, 2023

Novartis Says Kidney Drug Phase 3 Trial Reaches Positive Interim Result

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By Adria Calatayud

Novartis said an interim analysis from a phase 3 trial to evaluate its investigational iptacopan drug in patients with kidney disease nephropathy achieved positive results, meeting its primary goal.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company said Monday that an analysis of study data at nine months showed a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction in protein in urine. The company said this demonstrated superiority of iptacopan relative to placebo in reducing protein in urine.

The safety profile of the drug was consistent with previously reported data, Novartis said.

Novartis said it plans to review the trial’s interim results with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to enable a potential regulatory submission for accelerated approval.

The study will now continue to assess the iptacopan’s ability to slow disease progression over two years, the company said. Results from the primary goal at the end of the study are expected in 2025.

Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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October 1, 2023

Newsom to name Laphonza Butler, former Kamala Harris adviser, to Feinstein’s Senate seat

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LOS ANGELES — California Gov. Gavin Newsom will name Laphonza Butler, a Democratic strategist and adviser to Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, to fill the vacant U.S. Senate seat held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a spokesman in his office said Sunday.

In choosing Butler, Newsom fulfilled his pledge to appoint a Black woman if Feinstein’s seat should become open. However, he had been facing pressure by some Black politicians and advocacy groups to select Rep. Barbara Lee, a prominent Black congresswoman who is already running for the seat.

Butler will be the only Black woman serving in the U.S. Senate, and the first openly LGBTQ person to represent California in the chamber.

The long-serving Democratic senator died last Thursday after a series of illnesses. Butler leads Emily’s List, a political organization that supports Democratic women candidates who favor abortion rights. She also is a former labor leader with SEIU 2015, a powerful force in California politics.

Butler currently lives in Maryland, according to her Emily’s List biography.

She did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment. A spokesman in Newsom’s office who declined to be named confirmed to The Associated Press that Newsom had chosen Butler.

Democrats control the Senate 51-49, though Feinstein’s seat is vacant. A quick appointment by Newsom will give the Democratic caucus more wiggle room on close votes, including nominations that Republicans uniformly oppose. She could be sworn in as early as Tuesday evening when the Senate returns to session.

Feinstein, the oldest member of Congress and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, died at age 90 after a series of illnesses. She said in February she was would not seek reelection in 2024. Lee is one of several prominent Democrats competing for the seat, including Democratic U.S. Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff. Newsom said he did not want to appoint any of the candidates because it would give them an unfair advantage in the race.

His spokesman Anthony York said the governor did not ask Butler to commit to staying out of the race. Dec. 8 is the deadline for candidates to file for the office.

Butler has never held elected office but has a long track record in California politics. She served as a senior adviser to Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign while working at a political firm filled with strategists who have worked for Newsom and many other prominent state Democrats. She also briefly worked in the private sector for Airbnb.

She called Feinstein “a legendary figure for women in politics and around the country,” in a statement posted after Feinstein’s death.

Emily’s List, the group Butler leads, focuses on electing Democratic women who support abortion rights. With the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn women’s constitutional right to abortion, the issue has become a galvanizing one for many Democrats.

It’s not Newsom’s first time selecting a U.S. senator, after being tasked with choosing a replacement for Kamala Harris when she was elected vice president; at that time he selected California Secretary of State Alex Padilla for the post. It was one of a string of appointments Newsom made in late 2020 and early 2021, a power that gave him kingmaker status among the state’s ambitious Democrats.

The seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands in the 2024 election. Democrats in the liberal-leaning state have not lost a statewide election since 2006, and the party holds a nearly 2-to-1 voter registration advantage over Republicans.

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October 1, 2023
How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

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It’s time to churn, baby, churn.

The streaming scene has changed significantly over the past year or so, and for the worse: more expensive, less new programming, smaller libraries of older shows. And it’s coming at a time when consumers are being increasingly pressed by higher costs on all fronts. Prices for Disney’s ad-free tiers are rising sharply in October, and Amazon will jack up prices early next year for those who don’t want to see commercials. So it’s time for consumers to once again reassess which services are really worth paying for.

There are three options if you don’t want your monthly streaming bill to look like your old triple-digit cable bill: bundle (you can save significantly with a Hulu-Disney+ package, for example), move to cheaper plans with commercials (ugh) or just drop the services you watch least. Pick a maximum monthly price ceiling and stick to it — at this point, most people don’t need more than two or three services anyway.

If you’re frustrated by paying more for less, and want to make a point, cancelling a service is the one way that companies will take notice. Streaming services hate churn (adding and dropping services month-to-month) because it lowers their subscriber base and forces them to raise their marketing costs to win you back. As a consumer, it’s really your only weapon.

Don’t like how Max keeps removing older shows? Dump it. Finding yourself watching less and less Disney+? Ditch it. It’s satisfying, it’s economical and you can always sign up again in the future.

One benefit of streaming services is they’re a lot easier to cancel than cable. With prices soaring, now’s the time to be brutal in winnowing your subscriptions. A churn strategy takes some planning, but it pays off. Keep in mind that a billing cycle starts when you sign up, not necessarily at the beginning of the month.

Each month, this column offers tips on how to maximize your streaming and your budget, rating the major services as a “play,” “pause” or “stop” — similar to investment analysts’ traditional ratings of buy, hold or sell, and picks the best shows to help you make your monthly decisions.

Here’s a look at what’s coming to the various streaming services in October 2023, and what’s really worth the monthly subscription fee:

Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads, $15.49 standard with no ads, $19.99 premium with no ads)

After a ho-hum past few months, Netflix
NFLX,
+0.33%
is rolling out a more robust lineup in October. Which is nice, because no other streaming service is.

After a two-year layoff, the French heist thriller series “Lupin” (Oct. 5) returns for its third season. Omar Sy stars as a master thief who’s now on the lam, and he carries the show largely on his charisma. It’s a fun one, and a welcome return for viewers.

But the big-name show of the month is “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Oct. 12), from horror hit-maker Mike Flanagan (“The Haunting of Hill House,” “Midnight Mass”). The miniseries, based on Edgar Allan Poe’s classic story, combines Gothic horror with a modern twist, as the corrupt CEO of a family-owned and scandal-plagued pharmaceutical company is forced to face demons from his past as his family members keep dying, one by one, in increasingly gruesome ways. The sprawling cast includes Bruce Greenwood, Annabeth Gish, Carl Lumbly, Carla Gugino, Rahul Kohli, Mark Hamill, Henry Thomas and Mary McDonnell. This should be one to watch, if for nothing else than to finally see a Sackler-like family get their comeuppance.

Also on the way: the seventh seasons of the raunchy animated adolescent comedy “Big Mouth” (Oct. 20) and the Spanish high school soap “Elite” (Oct. 20); “Pain Hustlers” (Oct. 27), a meh-looking satirical crime drama starring Emily Blunt and Chris Evans as scheming pharmaceutical reps; and the nature documentary “Life on Our Planet” (Oct. 25), narrated by Morgan Freeman.

More: What’s new on Netflix in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

And you may have missed it, but Netflix snuck in a new season of “The Great British Baking Show” at the end of September. New episodes stream every Tuesday, and feature new co-host Alison Hammond, replacing Matt Lucas, who always seemed out of place.

Who’s Netflix for? Fans of buzz-worthy original shows and movies.

Play, pause or stop? Play. Between some good-looking new shows, fresh eps of the “Great British Baking Show” and recent additions such as “Sex Education” (though its final season is underwhelming) and HBO’s classic “Band of Brothers,” Netflix is once again a must-have.

Max ($9.99 a month with ads, or $15.99 with no ads)

After a dismal September, Max has a better October lineup, with Season 2 of the beloved pirate comedy “Our Flag Means Death” (Oct. 5), starring Rhys Darby and Taika Waititi as wildly different ship captains involved in a star-crossed romance; Season 2 of “The Gilded Age” (Oct. 29), Julian Fellowes’ “Downton Abbey”-esque costume drama set in 1880s New York high society, with a sprawling cast that includes Carrie Coon, Cynthia Nixon, Christine Baranski, Morgan Spector and Louisa Jacobson; and the fourth and final season of the DC superhero dramedy “Doom Patrol” (Oct. 12).

Notably, Warner Bros. Discovery’s
WBD,
+1.59%
Max is launching its live-sports tier — the unfortunately named Bleacher Report Sports — on Oct. 5, just in time for the MLB playoffs and upcoming NBA season. The add-on tier will be free for all subscribers through February, when its price will shoot up to $9.99 a month.

Also: What’s new on Max in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

This is also your last chance to watch a bunch of AMC shows that are getting a two-month promotional run on Max: “Fear the Walking Dead” Seasons 1-7, “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” Season 1, “Dark Winds” Season 1, “Gangs of London” Seasons 1-2, “Ride with Norman Reedus” Seasons 1-5, “A Discovery of Witches” Seasons 1-3, and “Killing Eve” Seasons 1-4 will all leave Oct. 31. Do yourself a favor and at least watch “Dark Winds.”

One more hidden gem to discover: Season 3 of the British rom-com “Starstruck,” which landed Sept. 28. It’s utterly charming and unwaveringly romantic, with literal LOL moments and some of the most swoon-worthy banter in recent years. Catch up with all three seasons, it’s an easy binge that’s well worth it.

Who’s Max for? HBO fans and movie lovers. And now, unscripted TV fans too, with a slew of Discovery shows.

Play, pause or stop? Pause and think it over. It’s an exceptionally weak month for streamers, but Max’s lineup — especially with the addition of live sports and its deep library — makes it one of the least weakest.

Amazon’s Prime Video ($14.99 a month, or $8.99 without Prime membership)

Prime Video has a fine lineup in October. Not great. Not terrible. But very OK.

“Totally Killer” (Oct. 6) looks to be a cleverer-than-most spin on a horror trope, as Kiernan Shipka (“Mad Men”) stars as a 17-year-old who travels back in time to 1987 to stop a serial killer before he can start a slaying spree that terrorized her mother (Julie Bowen).

Greg Daniels’ existential comedy “Upload” (Oct. 20) is back for its third season of rom-com exploits in a digital afterlife, thanks to uploaded consciousness. (Disclaimer: I liked Season 1, but can’t for the life of me remember if I ever watched Season 2, which doesn’t bode well, but perfectly fits this month’s “meh it’s OK” theme.)

Meanwhile, Amazon’s
AMZN,
+0.90%
free, ad-supported channel, Freevee, has the second season of “Bosch: Legacy” (Oct. 20), the “Bosch” spinoff starring Titus Welliver as a private investigator in L.A., while his daughter Maddie (Madison Lintz) charts her own path as a police officer. As gritty detective shows go, it’s solid.

Prime Video also has a decent lineup of NFL Thursday Night Football; “The Burial” (Oct. 13), a funeral-home drama movie starring Oscar-winners Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones; all 11 seasons of the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 1), just in time for the reboot on Paramount+; as well as new eps every week of “The Boys” spinoff “Gen V” and the season finale of “The Wheel of Time” (Oct 6).

See more: Everything coming to Amazon’s Prime Video and Freevee in October 2023

It’s also a good time to dig into Prime Video’s extensive library, before commercials come early next year. In an obnoxious move, rather than add an ad-supported tier at a lower price, Amazon will subject all subscribers to commercials — unless they pay an extra $3-a-month ransom. Commercials will be especially annoying on Prime’s more cinematic series, so watch great-looking shows like “I’m a Virgo,” “Dead Ringers” and “The English” interruption-free, while you still can.

Who’s Prime Video for? Movie lovers, TV-series fans who value quality over quantity.

Play, pause or stop? Pause. There’s no a compelling reason to start a subscription now, but if you already have one, there’s probably enough to watch.

Disney+ ($7.99 a month with ads, $13.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

After a hiatus of more than two years, Marvel’s “Loki” (Oct. 5) is finally back for its second season. The new season finds the eponymous god of mischief (played by Tom Hiddleston) bouncing across the multiverse in a battle for free will while trying to elude agents of the mysterious Time Variant Authority. Season 1 of “Loki” was one of Marvel’s better TV adaptations, and hopes are high that Season 2 can recapture that sense of chaotic fun. Owen Wilson returns as TVA agent Mobius, and Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) joins the cast, which also features Jonathan Majors as big bad Kang the Conqueror, which is… problematic. Disney is reportedly still planning for Majors to play a key role in “Loki” and the next phase of “Avengers” movies despite his arrest on assault charges earlier this year, which prompted troubling allegations of past physical and emotional abuse toward women. (“Loki” had already finished filming prior to his arrest.)

Disney also has “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), about a group of high school friends fighting supernatural forces as they uncover long-buried secrets about their small town in this series adaptation of R.L. Stine’s hugely popular series of spooky novels. (It’ll also stream on Hulu.)

The “Star Wars” spinoff “Ahsoka” has its season finale Oct. 3, while ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” will stream every Tuesday.

Who’s Disney+ for? Families with kids, hardcore “Star Wars” and Marvel fans. For people not in those groups, Disney’s
DIS,
+1.15%
library can be lacking.

Play, pause or stop? Pause. The price of ad-free Disney+ jumps by $3 a month starting Oct. 12 — how much do you or your family really want to watch “Loki” and “Goosebumps”? It’ll be worth it for some, but an opportune time to cancel for others.

Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $17.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

Hulu has been on a fantastic run since the start of summer, but all good things must end. And it happens to coincide with a $3-a-month hike to its ad-free subscription.

October’s lineup is weak, and heavily weighed toward Halloween-themed fare, such as Season 2 of FX’s spinoff anthology “American Horror Stories” (Oct. 26); the Stephen King thrillers “Rose Red” (Oct. 1) and “The Boogeyman” (Oct. 5); the Starz horror series “Ash vs. Evil Dead” (Oct. 1); the body-horror movie “Appendage” (Oct. 2); and “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), a live-action adaptation of R.L. Stine’s bestselling kids’ book series (which will also stream on Disney+).

Non-horror shows include new seasons of Fox’s “The Simpsons,” “Family Guy” and “Bob’s Burgers” (all Oct. 2), and Season 2 of the comedy “Shorsey” (Oct. 27), the “Letterkenny” spinoff series about minor-league hockey that has a surprising amount of heart to go with its absolutely filthy dialogue.

For more: What’s coming to Hulu in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

As an added bonus, all five seasons of ABC’s 1980s detective-agency rom-com “Moonlighting” (Oct. 10), starring Bruce Willis and Cybill Shepherd, will stream for the first time ever (legally at least). If I remember correctly, there were some really high highs but also some really low lows — but it’ll be worth checking out, for nostalgia if nothing else.

There are also new eps every week of “The Golden Bachelor” and “Bachelor in Paradise,” the season finale of “Only Murders in the Building” (Oct. 3) and the series finale of “Archer” (Oct. 11). And if you missed it, all three seasons of “Reservation Dogs” are there and just begging to be watched, or rewatched. (It’s about as perfect as a TV series could ever be, and the recently concluded Season 3 is the best thing I’ve seen this year.)

Who’s Hulu for? TV lovers. There’s a deep library for those who want older TV series and next-day streaming of many current network and cable shows.

Play, pause or stop? Stop. If you’re on the ad tier, this month might be tolerable, but it’s certainly not worth $17.99.

Paramount+ ($5.99 a month with ads, $11.99 a month with Showtime and no ads)

Twenty years after ending its 11-season run (with 37 Emmy wins), the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 12) is back. Sort of. Kelsey Grammar returns in this revival as the pompous Dr. Frasier Crane, who’s moved back to Boston to be closer to his adult son (played by Jack Cutmore-Scott), who doesn’t necessarily want him there. The cast is mostly new, though Bebe Neuwirth (as Frasier’s ex-wife Lilith) and Peri Gilpin (his radio producer Roz) will reportedly guest star. David Hyde Pierce (Niles) and Jane Leeves (Daphne) will not return, however, which is a bummer since that’s where much of the original show’s laughs came from (John Mahoney, who played Frasier’s father Marty Crane, died in 2018). The jury’s out on this one — while in theory, it could be a refreshing update to a nostalgic favorite, the trailer is not encouraging.

Paramount+ also has “Pet Sematary: Bloodlines” (Oct. 6), a creepy prequel to the 2019 horror reboot; “Fellow Travelers” (Oct. 27), a decades-spanning queer love story starring Matt Bomer and Jonathan Bailey; and Showtime’s courtroom drama “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Oct. 6), the late director William Friedkin’s last film, starring Keifer Sutherland, the late Lance Reddick and Jake Lacy.

That’s on top of a live-sports lineup that includes SEC and Big Ten college football on Saturdays, NFL football every Sunday and UEFA Champions League soccer matches.

Who’s Paramount+ for? Gen X cord-cutters who miss live sports and familiar Paramount Global
PARA,
+0.62%
broadcast and cable shows.

Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s a good football lineup, at least.

Apple TV+ ($6.99 a month)

It’s another slow month for Apple
AAPL,
+0.30%,
highlighted by the miniseries “Lessons in Chemistry” (Oct. 13), based on Bonnie Garmus’ bestselling novel. Brie Larson stars as a woman in the 1950s whose dreams of becoming a scientist are scuttled by male chauvinism, and instead becomes the host of a TV cooking show, where she inspires housewives and fights the patriarchy. Apple is getting a reputation for getting big-name stars for prestige-type series, only for the shows to fizzle out and quickly be forgotten (like “Mosquito Coast,” “Hello Tomorrow” and “Dear Edward,” for starters). I have yet to see any marketing for this series, and it would not be a surprise for someone to ask six months from now: “Wait, Brie Larson was in an Apple show?”

There’s also a new documentary from Errol Morris, “The Pigeon Tunnel” (Oct. 20), about the life of spy-turned-writer David Cornwell, aka John le Carré; and “The Enfield Poltergeist” (Oct. 27), a four-part docuseries about the supposed real-life haunting that inspired “The Conjuring 2.”

Apple’s biggest title will be on Oct. 20 in movie theaters, with the wide release of Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” the spectacular-looking historical drama about a series of mysterious killings of Osage tribal members in Oklahoma in the 1920s, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro. There’s no streaming release date yet, but expect it to land on Apple TV+ after its theatrical run, possibly in November but more likely in December.

There are also new episodes every week of “The Morning Show,” “The Changeling” (season finale Oct. 13) and “Invasion” (season finale Oct. 25).

Who’s Apple TV+ for? It offers a little something for everyone, but not necessarily enough for anyone — although it’s getting there.

Play, pause or stop? Stop. Apple’s had a great year, but there’s just not a lot on right now. But there’s good stuff coming in November (Season 4 of “For All Mankind”) and December (Season 3 of “Slow Horses”).

Remember, you can get three free months of Apple TV+ if you buy a new iPhone, iPad or Mac. Strategically, if you buy an iPhone 15, and wait a bit to redeem the free trial, you’ll want it to extend into January.

Peacock (Premium for $5.99 a month with ads, or $11.99 a month with no ads)

It’s all about horror and sports for Peacock this October.

On the scary side, there’s Season 2 of the werewolf rom-com “Wolf Like Me” (Oct. 19), starring Josh Gad and Isla Fisher; “Five Nights at Freddy’s” (Oct. 27), a horror movie based on the videogame about a troubled security guard who starts working the night shift at a cursed pizza parlor, starring Josh Hutcherson and Matthew Lillard; and the true-crime anthology “John Carpenter’s Suburban Screams” (Oct. 13).

On the sports side, Peacock has the Rugby World Cup (through Oct. 28), NFL Sunday Night Football, Big Ten and Notre Dame college football, English Premier League soccer, and a full slate of golf, motorsports and horse racing.

Meanwhile, the “John Wick” prequel miniseries “The Continental” ends Oct. 6.

Who’s Peacock for? Live sports and next-day shows from Comcast’s
CMCSA,
-1.16%
NBCUniversal are the main draw, but there’s a good library of shows and movies.

Play, pause or stop? Stop. The live-sports offerings are the only lure.

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October 1, 2023
How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

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Carnage in the bond market in September could tee up an opportunity for investors to earn big returns on U.S. government debt in a year.

Owners of 10-year Treasury
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
notes at recent yields of around 4.5% could reap up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy stumbles into a recession, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

The key would be for U.S. debt to rally significantly as investors scramble for safety in the roughly $25 trillion treasury market.

“U.S. yields remain well above long-term equilibrium levels, providing scope for them to fall as the macroeconomic outlook becomes more supportive for bonds,” a team led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a Friday client note.

Their base-case call is for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% in 12 months, with it easing back to 4% in an upside scenario for growth, and for the economy’s benchmark rate to tumble as low as 2.75% in a downside scenario of a U.S. recession.

“That would translate into total returns over the period of 14% in our base case, 10% in our upside economic scenario, and 20% in our downside scenario.”

See: The market ‘may be overpaying you’ on a 10-year Treasury, says Lloyd Blankfein

A rally in Treasury debt could help boost funds that track the Treasury market and the broader U.S. bond sector. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT
was down 10.9% on the year through Friday, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
AGG
was 3% lower, according to FactSet.

A tug of war has been developing in the Treasury market, with fear gripping investors this week as bond yields spike in the wake of signals last week from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than many on Wall Street anticipated.

“Bond vigilantes” unhappy about the U.S. deficit have been demanding higher yields, while households and hedge funds have been piling into Treasury securities since the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

Much hinges on how painful things get if rates stay high, which would ratchet up borrowing costs for households, companies and the U.S. government as the Fed works to get falling inflation down to its 2% target.

Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman this week said he thinks Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, as part of his bet that the 30-year Treasury yield
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
has more room to climb.

The 10-year Treasury edged lower to 4.572% on Friday, after adding almost 50 basis points in September, which helped the stock market reclaim some lost ground in a dismal month, while the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.709%, according to FactSet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
posted a 3.5% decline in September, its biggest monthly loss since February, the S&P 500 index
SPX
fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP
shed 5.8% for the month.

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October 1, 2023

Tag: article_normal

Steve Scalise

Tom Emmer

Patrick McHenry

Elise Stefanik

Steve Scalise

Tom Emmer

Patrick McHenry

Elise Stefanik

Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

SOURCE: BTIG ANALYSIS, BLOOMBERG

Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads, $15.49 standard with no ads, $19.99 premium with no ads)

Max ($9.99 a month with ads, or $15.99 with no ads)

Amazon’s Prime Video ($14.99 a month, or $8.99 without Prime membership)

Disney+ ($7.99 a month with ads, $13.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $17.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

Paramount+ ($5.99 a month with ads, $11.99 a month with Showtime and no ads)

Apple TV+ ($6.99 a month)

Peacock (Premium for $5.99 a month with ads, or $11.99 a month with no ads)