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Tag: Armed forces

  • ‘Command your troops, damn it!’ How a series of security failures opened a path to insurrection in Brazil | CNN

    ‘Command your troops, damn it!’ How a series of security failures opened a path to insurrection in Brazil | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    A sea of people, draped in the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag, surge onto the roof of the country’s modernist congressional building in the capital Brasilia, a video shared on social media shows.

    In the foreground, officers from the military police of Brazil’s Federal District, which includes Brasilia, can be seen standing, chatting or filming the crowds in the distance.

    Their calm belies the chaos unfolding on January 8. For around four hours, thousands of far-right supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed all three branches of Brazil’s government – Congress, the Supreme Court, and presidential palace – overwhelming security forces and calling for the leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to be ousted.

    The violence has shocked the country, with many wanting answers as to how so many people managed to enter some of the most highly securitized buildings in the country, with practically no resistance. Questions are mounting as to whether members of the security forces tasked with protecting the area and their leaders were just overstretched, incompetent or even actively assisted the protesters.

    Top Brazilian officials say that pre-agreed security plans were not carried out on the day.

    CNN has analyzed a series of videos and livestreams posted on social media to explore the security failures that allowed an insurrection to take place with such extraordinary ease and found that some officers appeared friendly to the rioters, while many others seem woefully underprepared for the angry mob. CNN has not identified and spoken to the officers in the videos.

    Videos show some police officers standing and watching the protestors as they stormed Congress, one even filmed the events. Credit: YouTube, Twitter and Telegram.

    Authorities investigating the riots, like the Supreme Court, have pointed fingers at officials in Brasilia, and several Federal District security chiefs have been fired or issued with arrest warrants for alleged collusion since the Sunday riots.

    “The Brasilia police neglected [the attack threat], Brasilia’s intelligence neglected it,” Lula claimed one day after the siege. He said that from the footage it was easy to see “police officers talking to the attackers. There was an explicit connivance of the police with the demonstrators.”

    Suspicions of “connivance” have been fueled by his predecessor Bolsonaro’s close relationship with the military during his presidency, filling his then-cabinet with military chiefs. In the weeks leading up to the siege, supporters of the ex-leader and former army captain – who never explicitly conceded his election loss in October – camped outside army barracks across Brazil, calling for a military intervention to overturn Lula’s victory.

    Bolsonaro has made false claims of election fraud, sowing doubt in the legitimacy of the election. He left for Florida more than a week before the insurrection.

    Lula on Thursday also accused some people in the armed forces of complicity. “There were many people complicit in this. There were many from the (military police), many from the armed forces complicit,” he said during a press conference.

    The Brazilian president said he doesn’t think of the events of January 8 as a “coup” but as a “smaller thing, a band of crazy people who haven’t realized that the election is over.”

    The military police of the Federal District have not responded to CNN’s questions about the alleged security failures of their forces. Nor has the Army Command in Brasilia – which has yet to make a public statement on the riots.

    Videos taken on January 8 suggest a reduced security presence compared to Lula’s inauguration a week before, at the same government complex, when more than 8,000 troops from military and civil forces were deployed.

    On January 8, there were just 365 military police officers working in the area. After Lula authorized a federal intervention at around 6 p.m. local that evening, another 2,913 were summoned, a caretaker Federal District spokesperson told CNN. The leadership of the office has changed since the January 8 riots.

    The army and civil police forces did not respond to CNN’s request for information on how many army troops and police forces were deployed to the area on Sunday.

    The military police are investigating the events on January 8 and “will start procedures to investigate” the alleged conduct of “police agents who behaved differently from (how) they were supposed to,” Ricardo Cappelli, the caretaker head of security for the Federal District of Brasilia, who got the role Sunday after his predecessor was fired, said this week.

    Sunday’s protests had been openly organized online days before and intelligence services were aware of their plans. Telegram conversations seen by CNN show people messaging as early as January 5 about their intentions to storm Brazil’s Congress.

    One post mentions a plan to use the Zello phone app, which works like a walkie talkie, if the internet was disrupted. The same app was used by some US Capitol rioters on January 6, 2021.

    Several others shared detailed maps of the parliamentary area, labeling clearly the Congress and Senate buildings as the assembly point.

    Brazil’s intelligence agency said it issued daily alerts ahead of January 8 to the government and the federal district government, warning the protests would be large and violent, CNN Brasil reports.

    Their intelligence was based on a warning raised by the country’s transport agency that an unusual volume of buses had been chartered to Brasilia. Both the Minister of Justice Flávio Dino and then-Federal District Governor Ibaneis Rocha, a Bolsonaro ally, were notified, said the intelligence agency.

    Despite the warnings, on January 7, Rocha told a Federal District news portal, Metropoles, that the protest would go ahead on the Esplanade – a grassy stretch surrounded by governmental buildings that leads directly to Brazil’s seats of power.

    In a press conference a day after the riot, Justice Minister Dino said special security plans had been agreed upon with the Federal District – which handles the defense of the governmental complex and was led by Rocha – but did not materialize on January 8. There was a “change in administrative orientation yesterday in which the planning, which did not allow people to enter the Esplanade, was changed at the last minute,” he said.

    Rocha was removed from his post for three months on Sunday. He said he respected the decision in an official statement and had also apologized to officials, including Lula, for what happened that day, saying his team “did not believe at all that the demonstrations would take on the proportions that they did.” CNN has reached out to Rocha for comment.

    When protesters, as planned, turned out in droves on January 8, they were met with little resistance.

    Beginning from their encampment outside the army headquarters, they walked over 7 kilometers (4.3 miles) down Brasilia’s main avenue, the Monumental Axis, to Congress.

    Prior to the breach of Congress, a long line of protesters march to the government complex. In one video, a military police officer appears to give a thumbs up while shaking hands with the pro-Bolsonaro crowd walking down the avenue. Some are even patting officers on the back.

    Military police attempted to stop the protesters by the Esplanade of Ministries along Eixo Monumental at around 2:25 p.m. local time, live video posted on YouTube by a protester and reviewed by CNN shows. But they were quickly over-run by protesters, who broke through the barricades. Police attempted to pepper spray a few of them as they tried to maintain the barricade but were overwhelmed.

    The time the crowds arrived outside Congress at around 2:45 p.m. local time. Videos showed some federal and military police units further attempting to block their way, but they were severely outnumbered.

    Chaos ensued.

    Another attempt by Brasilia’s military police to use pepper spray on protesters failed. The officers, standing behind a line of metal barricades, were quickly overwhelmed as the crowd surged through, tossing the barricades to the ground.

    Police confront protestors with pepper spray as they approach Congress but are quickly overwhelmed. Credit: Twitter

    Free to roam in Praça dos Três Poderes (Three Powers Square), thousands of Bolsonaro supporters climbed the ramp leading to the Congress, which houses the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. They entered the buildings just before 3 p.m.

    Videos from inside show overturned chairs and documents strewn on the floor as the crowds march through chanting pro-Bolsonaro slogans.

    With the barricades gone, several military police officers simply watched the scene. One even filmed the protesters climbing onto the roof of Congress.

    Meanwhile, outside the Congress building two federal police vans sat with smoke billowing from their windows, video shows. One has swerved off the road half-submerged in a lake.

    The swarm of protesters also moved to the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. Officers seemed once again unable to control the situation. Some on horseback were attacked near the Supreme Court, pulled to the ground and pummeled by rioters.

    In the end, the crowd managed to break inside these buildings as well and wreak havoc.

    Videos showed little coordination between police divisions and left some officers overwhelmed by the crowds. Credit: TikTok and Telegram

    Lula has suggested that someone deliberately left the doors to the palace unlocked. It was “opened for these people to enter because there is no broken door. It means someone facilitated their entry here,” he told reporters Thursday.

    While he waits for the dust to settle, “I want to see all the tapes recorded inside the Supreme Court, inside the palace. There were a lot of conniving agents. There were a lot of people from the MP (Military Police) conniving,” he added.

    The January 8 videos found online seem to convey the chaos of the moment.

    In one video, responders seem to struggle to coordinate and communicate as security forces seem overwhelmed as they try to gain control.

    A military police officer shouts at soldiers from the presidential guard battalion to fight the invaders as they stand by the presidential Planalto Palace.

    “Command your troops, damn it!” he yells at the battalion commander.

    But the soldiers appear hesitant, and their leader remains silent as they struggle to make decisions while confronted by the horde.

    In pictures: Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazilian Congress


    As it approaches 7 p.m. local time, the police and army finally have things under control. A YouTube livestream shows crowds filing off the roof of Congress and leaving the governmental compound.

    Two hours later, Bolsonaro condemns the day’s events, saying “peaceful demonstrations, respecting the law, are part of democracy. However, depredations and invasions… escape the rule.”

    Brazil’s response to the riots has been swift. The pro-Bolsonaro encampments outside army barracks were cleared, and a new round of protests on January 11 never materialized.

    The Supreme Court agreed to prosecutor’s requests on Friday to investigate Bolsonaro for the alleged involvement in the attacks. His lawyer has rebutted the accusations, saying Bolsonaro always “rejected all illegal and criminal acts … and has always been a defender of the constitution and democracy.”

    High level officials have aimed their sights on Bolsonaro allies still working in government, including Anderson Torres, who was effectively in charge of security for the Three Powers Square, where the governmental buildings were located.

    Brazil’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered the arrest of Torres, who was previously Bolsonaro’s justice minister and assumed the role of security secretary of the Federal District in January, and the district’s former military police commander Fabio Vieira.

    The order accuses the pair of attempting a coup d’état, terrorist acts, damage to public property, criminal association, and violent abolition of the rule of law. It also argues “the absence of the necessary policing” during the riots happened due to the “omission and connivance of several authorities in the area of security and intelligence.”

    Torres, who was fired on Sunday with Vieira, had traveled to Florida on January 7, a day before the riots. It is unclear if he met with Bolsonaro, who was also in Florida, having left Brazil in December, days before the inauguration of Lula.

    The former security secretary has strenuously denied any involvement in the riots. “I deeply regret these absurd hypotheses of any kind of collusion on my part,” he tweeted on Sunday, and wrote days later that he would return to Brazil and fight the charges.

    He was arrested on his return to Brazil on Saturday, CNN Brasil reports.

    On Thursday, the Federal Police announced that during a search of Torres’ home, it found a draft decree proposing to overturn October’s presidential election. Torres has denied being the author.

    CNN has reached out to his lawyer for comment.

    Investigators are looking for funders and leaders of the riots, an unenviable task due to the protesters lack of formalized leadership, Michele Prado, an expert on the Brazilian far right, told CNN.

    “Despite this fluidity of (protest) leaders and horizontality,” there are thousands of people online who continue to share extremist positions, she added.

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    January 14, 2023
  • US carrier strike group begins operating in South China Sea as tensions with China simmer | CNN Politics

    US carrier strike group begins operating in South China Sea as tensions with China simmer | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A US carrier strike group began operating in the South China Sea on Thursday, the Navy announced, amid heightened tensions with Beijing, which claims much of the body of water as its sovereign territory.

    Two Chinese ships are already tailing the US group, a defense official told CNN, which consists of an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser, and three guided missile destroyers.

    The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group, which has lethal and non-lethal capabilities from “space to undersea, across every axis, and every domain,” according to its commander, entered the South China Sea for the first time as part of its current deployment.

    The deployment comes as the US military bolsters its presence in the region in an effort to deter China, which is undergoing a rapid modernization and expansion of its own military and nuclear capabilities.

    This week, the US and Japan announced a bolstered US Marine presence in Okinawa, which would have advanced intelligence and anti-ship capabilities. The two allies also announced a series of other initiatives designed to bring the militaries closer together in the face of what they see as China’s growing assertiveness in the region.

    “We share a common vision with Japan to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific and all the things that we’re doing, you know, point towards that direction,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday, speaking with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and their Japanese counterparts in Washington.

    Three weeks ago, a Chinese J-11 fighter jet intercepted a US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea in what the US called an “unsafe maneuver.” The RC-135 Rivet Joint was forced to take evasive action, the US said, when the Chinese jet closed to within 20 feet of the larger, slower reconnaissance jet.

    The People’s Liberation Army fired back with their own account of the interception, claiming it was the US aircraft that had “abruptly changed its flight attitude” with a “dangerous approaching maneuver,” despite a Chinese military video showing nothing of the sort.

    The encounter underscored the inherent tensions related to the South China Sea, where Beijing has used its own artificial militarized islands to advance a claim of sovereignty not recognized by the US or its allies.

    The Chinese Navy routines tails US warships operating in the South China Sea, even claiming on occasion that it drove away the US vessels after they have left the disputed waters.

    In November, China claimed that it forced the USS Chancellorsville out of the South China Sea after it “illegally entered” the waters without Beijing’s approval, which showed the “US is a true producer of security risks” in the region.

    The US responded bluntly, calling the Chinese account “false” and the “latest in a long string of (People’s Republic of China) actions to misrepresent lawful US maritime operations and assert its excessive and illegitimate maritime claims at the expense of its Southeast Asian neighbors.”

    The US guided missile cruiser was operating in the South China Sea as part of a freedom of navigation operation under international law, the Navy said.

    “All nations, large and small, should be secure in their sovereignty, free from coercion, and able to pursue economic growth consistent with accepted international rules and norms,” the US said at the time.

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    January 13, 2023
  • Russian forces have taken Soledar, defense ministry says | CNN

    Russian forces have taken Soledar, defense ministry says | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Russian forces have taken the town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine, according to Russia’s defense ministry, in what would be Moscow’s first significant victory in months.

    Russia took control of Soledar on Thursday evening, the ministry said in a Friday briefing.

    Ukraine’s armed forces have denied Moscow’s claim. Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Ukrainian outlet RBC-Ukraine that Russia’s claim of capturing Soledar is “not true,” adding that “fighting is going on in the city.”

    In recent days there have been competing claims over who has control of the town amid fierce fighting. Wagner, the Russian private military company, said it had taken complete control of Soledar on Tuesday, a claim refuted by Ukraine. Russian forces had fought hard to take the town, but more battles remained, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Thursday.

    On Friday morning, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that fighting overnight had been “hot.”

    The taking of Soledar would mark Russia’s first gain in the Donbas region for months – offering President Vladimir Putin some welcome news after a string of defeats on the battlefield since last summer.

    The significance of the town in military terms is minimal. However, its capture allows Russian forces, and especially the Wagner mercenary group, to turn their focus on nearby Bakhmut, a key target.

    Wagner posted a video on Telegram Thursday directly disparaging the Russian defense ministry’s claim that regular Russian military forces have participated in the assault on Soledar.

    Which Russian forces are responsible for the assault in eastern Ukraine has become a key point of contention in the machinations of Russia’s power structure.

    Russia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that regular Russian forces were operating in and around Soledar, without mentioning Wagner.

    Taking Soledar would represent a symbolic PR win for the man who runs Wagner – oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has frequently criticized Moscow’s management of the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

    One Ukrainian soldier in Soledar had on Thursday evening described to CNN the desperate situation on the ground.

    “We tried to withdraw ourselves, but the orcs (a pejorative Ukrainian term for Russian troops) are already there,” he said over the phone. CNN is not identifying the soldier for security reasons.

    “If there is no order to withdraw today, we will most likely not have time to leave,” he added. “We were told that we would be withdrawn. And now we аre just abandoned.”

    The soldier said that his group had run out of food, were running low on water, and had wounded colleagues, but still had some ammunition.

    “The last evacuation was three days ago,” he said. “The order was to hold out to the very end. Judging by the sounds of the battle, our neighbors (other units) either withdrew or were ordered to withdraw. We were told to hold out.”

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    January 13, 2023
  • Pentagon drops COVID-19 vaccine mandate for troops

    Pentagon drops COVID-19 vaccine mandate for troops

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    WASHINGTON — The Pentagon formally dropped its COVID-19 vaccination mandate Tuesday, but a new memo signed by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also gives commanders some discretion in how or whether to deploy troops who are not vaccinated.

    Austin’s memo has been widely anticipated ever since legislation signed into law on Dec. 23 gave him 30 days to rescind the mandate. The Defense Department had already stopped all related personnel actions, such as discharging troops who refused the shot.

    “The Department will continue to promote and encourage COVID-19 vaccination for all service members,” Austin said in the memo. “Vaccination enhances operational readiness and protects the force.”

    Austin said that commanders have the authority to maintain unit readiness and a healthy force. He added, however, that other department policies — including mandates for other vaccines — remain in place. That includes, he said, “the ability of commanders to consider, as appropriate, the individual immunization status of personnel in making deployment, assignment, and other operational decisions, including when vaccination is required for travel to, or entry into, a foreign nation.”

    The contentious political issue, which has divided America, forced more than 8,400 troops out of the military for refusing to obey a lawful order when they declined to get the vaccine. Thousands of others sought religious and medical exemptions. Austin’s memo ends those exemption requests.

    Austin, who instituted the mandate in August 2021 after the Pfizer vaccine was approved by the Food and Drug Administration and as the coronavirus pandemic raged, was staunch in his desire to maintain it insisting the vaccine was necessary to protect the health of the force. He and other defense leaders argued that for decades troops, particularly those deployed overseas, had been required to get as many as 17 different vaccines. No other vaccine mandates were affected by the new law.

    But Congress agreed to rescind the mandate, with opponents reluctantly saying that perhaps it had already succeeded in getting the bulk of the force vaccinated. Roughly 99% of active-duty troops in the Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps had gotten the vaccine, and 98% of the Army. The Guard and Reserve rates are lower, but generally are more than 90%.

    Austin’s memo was unapologetic in his continued support for the vaccine, and his belief that the mandate kept the force healthy and able to protect America. The Pentagon’s vaccine efforts, he said, “will leave a lasting legacy in the many lives we saved, the world-class force we have been able to field, and the high level of readiness we have maintained, amidst difficult public health conditions.”

    In addition to ending efforts to discharge troops who refuse the vaccine, Austin’s memo says that those who sought exemptions and were denied will have their records updated and any letters of reprimand will be removed.

    Those who were discharged for refusing to obey a lawful order to take the vaccine received either an honorable discharge or a general discharge under honorable conditions. Austin’s memo says that anyone who was discharged can petition their military service to request a change in the “characterization of their discharge” in their personnel records. It does not, however, say what possible corrections could be awarded.

    Austin’s decision leaves some discretion to commanders, allowing them to decide whether they can require vaccines in some circumstances, such as certain deployments overseas.

    Military officials vividly recall the overwhelming crisis of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the Navy aircraft carrier that was knocked out of duty and sidelined in Guam for 10 weeks in early 2020 as the emerging virus swept through the ship. More than 1,000 crew members eventually became infected, and one sailor died.

    Military leaders worry that if troops begin to refuse the vaccine in large numbers, similar outbreaks could occur. The risk is particularly high on small ships or submarines where service members are jammed into close quarters for weeks or months at a time, or on critical combat missions, such as those involving special operations forces that deploy in small teams.

    According to data compiled by the military as of early December, the Marine Corps leads the services with 3,717 Marines discharged. There have been 2,041 discharged from the Navy, 1,841 from the Army and 834 from the Air Force. The Air Force data includes the Space Force.

    What’s not clear is if the services, who are facing recruiting challenges, will want — or be able to — allow any of those service members to return to duty, if they still meet all necessary fitness and other requirements.

    Lawmakers argued that ending the mandate would help with recruiting. Defense officials have pushed back by saying that while it may help a bit, a department survey during the first nine months of last year found that a large majority said the mandate did not change the likelihood they would consider enlisting.

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    January 11, 2023
  • DOJ appeals decision that faulted Air Force for 2017 Texas church shooting | CNN Politics

    DOJ appeals decision that faulted Air Force for 2017 Texas church shooting | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The Justice Department on Monday formally appealed a 2021 federal court ruling that found the US government was mostly responsible for the 2017 mass shooting at a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, arguing that the court erred when it said the government was more at fault for the massacre than the shooter himself.

    During the shooting, the gunman, former US Air Force member Devin Patrick Kelley, killed 26 people and wounded 22 others at the First Baptist Church in the small community of Sutherland Springs. He died later that day from a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

    “The attack on innocent victims at the First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs was an inexpressible tragedy and the United States unequivocally does not seek to excuse the Air Force’s failure to submit Kelley’s fingerprints and record of conviction for inclusion in NICS databases,” attorneys for the department wrote in court papers filed Monday evening. “Nonetheless, under settled Texas and federal law, the United States is not liable for Kelley’s actions, and is certainly not more responsible for those acts than the murderer himself.”

    DOJ spokeswoman Dena Iverson said in a recent statement that the government and plaintiffs have been engaged in a months-long effort to resolve the case through an out-of-court resolution.

    “Although the formal mediation has now ended, we remain open to resolving the plaintiffs’ claims through settlement and will continue our efforts to do so,” Iverson said.

    In a July 2021 ruling from US District Judge Xavier Rodriguez for the Western District of Texas, the court found the government 60% responsible for the harm that happened in the shooting and “jointly and severally liable for the damages that may be awarded.”

    Rodriguez concluded the Air Force failed to exercise reasonable care when it didn’t submit the shooter’s criminal history to the FBI’s background check system, which increased the risk of physical harm to the general public.

    “Even if the United States could be liable, the court erred in apportioning 60% of the responsibility to the United States (20% for line employees and 40% for supervisors), leaving only 40% for Kelley,” the DOJ attorneys argued in their filing on Monday.

    “The court committed legal error in apportioning a share of responsibility to the United States under a negligent supervision theory after already imposing liability for the acts of the supervised line employees – under Texas law, these theories are mutually exclusive. Moreover, the court erred by holding the United States more responsible for Kelley’s outrages than Kelley himself,” they wrote.

    In its filing, the DOJ asked the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to hold oral arguments to hear the appeal, writing: “The record in this case is voluminous and the legal issues are important and complex. Oral argument will be of substantial benefit to this Court in understanding the important issues in the case.”

    Victims of the shooting and families who suffered a loss in the incident have previously voiced opposition to the DOJ’s plan to appeal the decision, with an attorney for some of them saying on Monday that the move “dealt a blow to America’s safety.”

    “The DOJ’s appeal asks the court to hold that flagrantly and repeatedly violating the law – for over thirty years – by allowing child abusing felons and domestic violence offenders’ guns does not risk the safety of the public. The twenty-six dead and twenty-two injured at the Sutherland Springs mass shooting disagree,” Jamal Alsaffar, the lead attorney for the Sutherland Springs First Baptist Church families, said in a statement.

    Kelley was charged in military court in 2012 on suspicion of assaulting his spouse and their child. Kelley received a bad conduct discharge, confinement for 12 months, and was demoted to E-1, or airman basic.

    But despite his history of domestic abuse and questionable behavior involving firearms, Kelley was able to purchase the Ruger AR-556 rifle he allegedly used in the shooting from a store in San Antonio in April 2016, a law enforcement official previously told CNN.

    The failure to relay that information prevented the entry of his conviction into the federal database that must be checked before someone is able to purchase a firearm. Had his information been in the database at the National Criminal Information Center, it should have prevented gun sales to Kelley. Federal law prohibits people convicted of a misdemeanor crime involving domestic violence from owning firearms.

    Rodriguez’s order stated that no other individual – not even the shooter’s parents or partners – knew as much as the government did about his violent history and the violence he was capable of committing.

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    January 9, 2023
  • War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries | CNN Politics

    War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which conducted war game simulations of a possible conflict that is preoccupying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

    A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated.

    At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

    Those are among the conclusions the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made after running what it claims is one of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted on a possible conflict over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party claims as part of its sovereign territory despite never having controlled it.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

    CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report – titled “The First Battle of the Next War” – on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.

    “There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice.”

    CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

    The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.

    “The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    “China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

    Japan expands defense of its southern front line to counter China (April 2022)

    The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if a Chinese invasion doesn’t succeed.

    “While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

    Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

    But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.”

    “The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.

    Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), sees an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan as extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports upon which the Chinese economy relies for its very survival, Grazier told CNN, and interrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy in short order. China relies on imports of food and fuel to drive their economic engine, Grazier said, and they have little room to maneuver.

    “The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they’ll use industrial and economic power instead of military force.

    But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “pacing threat,” and last year’s China Military Power report mandated by Congress said “the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”

    In August, the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island prompted a wide-ranging display of PLA military might, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

    Since then, Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

    And speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won large applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

    The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing US troops to that defense.

    The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion of security assistance over five years, a strong sign of long-term bipartisan support for the island.

    Biden, however, has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military were to launch an invasion, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington’s “One China” policy.

    Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.

    “Wars happen even when objective analysis might indicate that the attacker might not be successful,” said Cancian.

    The CSIS report said for US troops to prevent China from ultimately taking control of Taiwan, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 war game iterations it ran:

    Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to contain Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and “en masse”; and the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.

    “There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia.

    “Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

    Washington will need to begin acting soon if it’s to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in a Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.

    Those include, fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; moving its naval forces to smaller and more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over fighter forces; but producing more cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with more simple weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

    Those policies would make winning less costly for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.

    “The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

    “Victory is not everything,” the report said.

    China Amb Nicholas Burns vpx

    Breakdown in US-China relations a ‘manufactured crisis,’ US ambassador says (August 2022)

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    January 9, 2023
  • Why Colombia was forced to backtrack on a promising ceasefire announcement | CNN

    Why Colombia was forced to backtrack on a promising ceasefire announcement | CNN

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    CNNE
     — 

    What began as a hopeful announcement of a six-month ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN) and other armed groups in Colombia, has ended in a political entanglement that casts doubts on the armed groups’ desire for peace – and raises questions about Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s future announcements regarding the ongoing peace process.

    The Colombian government’s own chief negotiator, Otty Patiño, has since acknowledged that the agreement was not reached bilaterally. On Wednesday, the Colombian government spokesman announced that the executive order for the ceasefire had been suspended.

    Analysts agree that it was a mistake to make the announcement without reaching a bilateral agreement, and believe that Petro’s government now faces a long way to go to right the wrong.

    Here is a summary of what happened in recent days regarding the agreement of a bilateral ceasefire – that never happened – and what may happen in the future.

    President Petro announced the ceasefire on December 31, giving hope to many sectors, especially communities plagued by violence.

    He said that for six months, starting January 1, there would be a ceasefire with the ELN and four other armed groups: la Segunda Marquetalia (the Second Marquetalia), el Estado Mayor Central (High Command of the FARC), Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces of Colombia) and the Autodefensas de la Sierra Nevada (Self-Defence Forces of the Sierra Nevada).

    “The main objective of the ceasefire will be to stop the humanitarian impact… to halt offensive actions and to avoid armed incidents between law enforcement and unlawful organizations,” the statement said.

    The announcement was applauded by many, including United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who in a statement indicated that he “welcomes” the announcement of the bilateral ceasefire since it “brings renewed hope for comprehensive peace to the Colombian people as the New Year dawns.”

    According to Petro, the Organization of American States (OAS), as well as the Catholic Church and the Ombudsman’s Office, would oversee the bilateral ceasefire.

    But the bilateral agreement did not happen.

    Three days later, the ELN said in a statement that there was no bilateral ceasefire agreement with the Colombian government as Petro had announced on December 31.

    “The ELN Dialogue Delegation has not discussed with the administration of Gustavo Petro any proposal for a bilateral ceasefire, therefore there is still no agreement on that matter,” says the January 1 statement.

    The guerrillas said that “the ELN only complies with what is discussed and agreed upon at the Dialogue Table where we participate,” adding that the announcement is understood to be “a proposal to be reviewed in the next cycle” that will be carried out in Mexico.

    Reuters reported that the announcement completely shocked the public, and after the announcement, Petro convened a meeting with the ministers of defense, interior and the high commissioner for peace to analyze the position of the rebel group, made up of some 2,400 fighters.

    Colombian Interior Minister and government spokesman Alfonso Prada Gil on Wednesday announced at a press conference that the executive order establishing a ceasefire with the ELN had been suspended.

    A new meeting between the parties is expected at negotiations between the ELN and the government of Colombia that will resume in Mexico

    “We became aware of the statement of the ELN, and last night we made the decision to suspend the legal effects of that executive order until the negotiation table is reactivated in the coming days, and at that table we are going to bring that request of the protocols on behalf of the government, and we hope that the ELN will bring theirs, so that we can reactivate the dialogue,” he said.

    Prada Gil invited the ELN to agree to a temporary ceasefire, while the next round of negotiations begin in Mexico.

    After the uproar caused by the announcement, the head of the government’s delegation for the negotiation, Otty Patiño, did not clarify that Petro made a unilateral announcement without consulting the guerrillas, but instead “celebrated” the ELN’s decision to “examine the terms” that could make the ceasefire possible.

    Interior minister Alfonso Prada speaks next to the High Commissioner for Peace, Danilo Rueda (L), and the Minister of Defense, Ivan Velasquez (R), during a press conference in Bogota on January 4, 2023.

    He also ventured to “interpret” Petro’s failed announcement as a “first step towards a new understanding and a new future.”

    Analysts have agreed that Petro’s announcement of a bilateral ceasefire was a mistake, but some posit that it was the president’s way of pressuring the guerillas and, trying to advance the peace process with the ELN.

    “It is evident that it is a mistake to proclaim a ceasefire with several organizations without having agreed to do so with all of them and without having the protocols for the oversight either. It is a mistake to commit the international community to something that is not yet agreed by the parties, but we are already in it,” political analyst Leon Valencia said Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, retired Army Colonel Luis Alberto Villamarín said, Petro’s bilateral announcement was a move that backfired.

    “He considered that by making a move like this he was going to subdue the ELN. Because the only means the ELN has to put pressure on the negotiating table is precisely their terrorist actions. And if the ELN commits to a bilateral ceasefire, that will prevent them from being strong on the negotiating table,” Villamarín said in an interview on CNNE’s Conclusiones.

    “The only argument the ELN has is terrorism and Mr. Petro thought that he could take that away from them, tying their hands,” said the retired Army Colonel. “It was calculated but the ELN responded in kind,” he added.

    Petro’s goal is to achieve what he calls “total peace,” which is also a political goal of his government.

    He wants to disarm armed groups and organized crime and put an end a decades-long armed conflict that has left at least 450,000 dead and millions displaced.

    And with that in mind, Petro’s administration has a two-prong approach: a peace negotiation with ELN guerrillas that have a political agenda, and legal processes with criminal organizations, which have no political agenda, said political analyst Ariel Avila, who is also a senator for the Green Party.

    “This ceasefire includes the five organizations, the largest armed groups, and therefore safety could improve in about 180 municipalities… in the country,” Avila said in an interview with CNNE’s Conclusiones. “There will be areas where relief will be very low, as there are others where these groups (sic) have total relief where relief will be much greater.”

    Despite Petro’s mistake of making that announcement without a bilateral agreement in place, he should still try and reach to reach a similar agreement, say experts, since the proposal was made public and it has been welcomed by the international community.

    “Gustavo Petro made the bold move to propose a bilateral ceasefire without discussing it with the armed forces and with the ELN. Now it is known and widely accepted and supported by the international community. What is appropriate now is to agree on it urgently,” said León Valencia.

    And if this agreement is reached, it would be twice as good, according to Avila, it will entail signing an agreement with the ELN, and implementing a law abiding process with the criminal organizations.

    “The criminal delivers truth and delivers goods and in return the state offers a reduction of the sentence,” he pointed out.

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    January 5, 2023
  • US military expands leave for new parents in uniform | CNN Politics

    US military expands leave for new parents in uniform | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The US military introduced new rights on Wednesday for military parents, doubling the amount of leave time for service members who give birth and providing leave for new parents who don’t give birth, including those who adopt and foster long-term.

    The new policy gives 12 weeks of parental leave to service members who give birth, and 12 weeks of leave for the non-birth parent. Previously, only the birthing parent was authorized six weeks of leave.

    The policy also provides 12 weeks of leave for those who adopt or have a long-term foster care placement. The 12 weeks of leave must be used in the first year of the child’s life, the Defense Department said in a news release. The new policy is effective as of Wednesday, and will retroactively apply to service members who were on maternity convalescent leave or caregiver leave as of December 27.

    “It is important for the development of military families that members be able to care for their newborn, adopted, or placed child or children … Unit commanders must balance the needs of the unit with the needs of the member to maximize opportunity to use parental leave,” Gilbert Cisneros, the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, said in the memo.

    For the parent who gives birth, the new policy says that the 12 weeks of leave will follow a period of convalescence, which can be authorized by a health care provider and will begin on the first full day after the child’s birth.

    Under the policy, the 12 weeks of leave can be taken all together or in increments and says that troops may take normal leave “in between increments of parental leave or consecutively with parental leave.” It also says that parents who are deployed during the one-year leave period can be authorized an extension if they are unable to take their 12 weeks during that first year, and that any parents who place their child for adoption or have their parental rights “terminated by consent or court order” are not eligible for the parental leave.

    Family planning is often one of the most cited frustrations for service members regarding military life. The Government Accountability Office said in a report in 2020 that family planning was one of six main reasons that women cited when asked why they decided to leave the service.

    Female officers in the Air Force specifically told the GAO that they “felt they needed to ensure that pregnancy occurred at certain times in their careers to minimize negative career impacts,” and that there were often missed opportunities because of pregnancies including a loss of flying time or opportunities with professional military education.

    In an attempt to address concerns from parents in uniform, the Army released a series of changes in April last year, which gave guidance on stabilizing soldiers’ permanent change of station or deployments as they undergo fertility treatments and provided convalescent leave to service members whose spouse experiences a miscarriage or stillbirth “for emotional recovery.”

    “As an Army, we recruit soldiers but retain families,” Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said at the time. “Nearly 4,500 active component enlisted men have separated due to parenthood over the last decade. … Across the entire military, 45% of all active duty married women are in dual-military marriages. This directive reaffirms our commitment to support our military families and children from pregnancy to parenthood.”

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    January 5, 2023
  • Videos show both sides of US-China aerial encounter — and highlight the risks involved | CNN

    Videos show both sides of US-China aerial encounter — and highlight the risks involved | CNN

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    Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.



    CNN
     — 

    The interception of a United States Air Force reconnaissance jet by a Chinese fighter over the South China Sea last month should be seen as a potential warning of how easily, and quickly things can go terribly wrong – raising the risk of a deadly military confrontation between the two powers, analysts say.

    The incident in question occurred on December 21 over the northern part of the South China Sea in what the US says was international airspace.

    Performing what the US military deemed an “unsafe maneuver,” a Chinese navy J-11 fighter jet flew within 20 feet of the nose of a US RC-135 Rivet Joint, an unarmed reconnaissance plane with about 30 people on board, forcing the US plane to take “evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision,” according to a statement from the US Indo-Pacific Command issued on December 28.

    It released a video of the incident showing the Chinese fighter flying to the left of and slightly above the four-engine US jet, similar to the Boeing 707 airliners of the 1960s and ’70s, and then gradually closing closer to its nose before moving away.

    The People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command, in a report on China Military Online, had a different interpretation of the encounter, saying it was the US jet that “abruptly changed its flight attitude and forced the Chinese aircraft to the left.”

    “Such a dangerous approaching maneuver seriously affected the flight safety of the Chinese military aircraft,” it said.

    It released its own video of the incident, shot from the fighter jet, that appeared to show the RC-135 moving closer to and behind the fighter.

    Aviation and military experts contacted by CNN who watched the two videos said it appeared the Chinese jet was firmly in the wrong and had no reason to get as close as it did to the American plane.

    “The 135 was in international airspace and is a large, slow, non-maneuverable aircraft. It is the responsibility of the approaching smaller, fast, maneuverable aircraft to stay clear, not to cause a problem for both aircraft,” said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, now with the Griffith Asia Institute.

    “The intent of the interception was presumably to visually identify the aircraft and the fighter could have stayed several miles away and competed that task. Getting closer brings no gains,” he said.

    Robert Hopkins, a retired US Air Force officer who flew similar reconnaissance jets, also pushed back at the Chinese interpretation of events.

    “The (Chinese) response is so far divorced from reality that it is fictional. An unarmed, airliner-sized aircraft does not aggressively turn into a nimble armed fighter,” said Hopkins.

    But Hopkins also said the US military risked blowing the incident out of proportion in saying the US jet had to take “evasive maneuvers,” a term he described as “overly dramatic.”

    “These are no different than a driver adjusting her position to avoid a temporary lane incursion by an adjacent driver,” Hopkins said. “The US response is pure theater and needlessly creates an exaggerated sense of danger.”

    But while the incident itself was safely manged by the US pilots, experts agreed the small distance between the US and Chinese planes evident in the videos leaves little room for error.

    “Flying aircraft close to each other at 500 miles per hour with unfriendly intentions is generally unsafe,” said Blake Herzinger, a nonresident fellow and Indo-Pacific defense policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

    “At that range, an unexpected maneuver or an equipment issue can cause a terrible accident in under a second,” Herzinger said.

    And Herzinger said the current state of US-China military relations means accidents could quickly turn into armed confrontation.

    “It’s worth remembering that the PLA has effectively wrecked any kind of hotlines or discussion forums for addressing potential incidents with the United States. If an intercept does go wrong, there are fewer options than ever for senior officers to limit potential escalation,” he said.

    Layton pointed out another potential danger that could lead to escalation. As seen in the US video, the Chinese aircraft is armed with air-to-air missiles.

    “The 135 is an unarmed aircraft. Why does the PLAN consider it necessary to intercept carrying missiles when the intent was to visually identify the aircraft? Doing this is potentially dangerous and could lead to a major and tragic incident,” Layton said.

    But in a regular press briefing on Friday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the incident was just the latest in a string of US provocations that threaten stability in the region.

    “Let me point out that for a long time, the US has frequently deployed aircraft and vessels for close-in reconnaissance on China, which poses a serious danger to China’s national security,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

    The Chinese Southern Theater Command said the US reconnaissance jet was flying “in the vicinity of China’s southern coastline and the Xisha Islands” – known in the West as the Paracels – where Beijing has built up military installations.

    The US Indo-Pacfic Command said the RC-135 was in international airspace and was “lawfully conducting routine operations.”

    China claims almost all of the vast South China Sea as part of its territorial waters, including many of distant islands and inlets in the disputed body of water, many of which Beijing has militarized.

    The US does not recognize these territorial claims and routinely conducts operations there, including freedom of navigation operations through the South China Sea.

    “The US’s provocative and dangerous moves are the root cause of maritime security issues. China urges the US to stop such dangerous provocations, and stop deflecting blame on China,” the Foreign Ministry’s Wang said.

    But Washington has consistently pointed the finger back at China in these intercepts, which date back decades.

    In the most infamous incident in 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US reconnaissance plane near Hainan Island in the northern South China Sea, leading to a major crisis as the Chinese pilot was killed and the damaged US plane barely managed a safe landing on Chinese territory. The US crew was released after 11 days of intense negotiations.

    After a string of incidents last year involving intercepts of US and allied aircraft by Chinese warplanes, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the PLA’s actions were escalating and “should worry us all.”

    Layton said he thinks Beijing may have been trying to provoke the US military last month, and get it on video.

    “There was no possible gain by the fighter flying so close except to create an incident – that was handily recorded on a high quality video camera the fighter’s crew just happened to have and be using. The incident seems very well planned by the PLAN, if rather risky,” he said.

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    January 3, 2023
  • This Afghan interpreter risked his life for US Marines. Now, they’re fighting for him to stay in the US | CNN Politics

    This Afghan interpreter risked his life for US Marines. Now, they’re fighting for him to stay in the US | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    It was November 2010 and a platoon of Marines was patrolling outside of a village in Helmand Province, Afghanistan – slowly, and carefully, to avoid accidentally stepping on hidden improvised explosive devices. They walked in a single file line meant to reduce the risk of multiple Marines being taken out in one blast.

    In the patrol formation was Zainullah Zaki, a young Afghan man working as an interpreter with 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division. As the Marines scanned for hidden explosives, Zaki, known as Zak by his American counterparts, listened to the radio, monitoring frequencies for Taliban communications.

    As they walked, he heard a Taliban commander coordinating an ambush on the very Marines he was with.

    Maj. Tom Schueman, the platoon commander at the time, told CNN that Zaki told him what was happening and said the Marines needed to “hurry up” to get into town. He recalled telling Zaki that they could only move as fast as the Marines at the front of the column, but Zaki insisted they move faster to avoid being caught in an attack.

    “Zak said, ‘That’s not fast enough,’” Schueman recalled, “And he just took off, ran a couple hundred meters through this active IED belt, mine field. He was able to correlate where the guy was observing us from, he knew what building the guy was in and went in there, tackled him, and detained him.”

    It wasn’t the last time Zaki would go far outside his job description to help the Marines he served alongside. But despite the deep trust and camaraderie Zaki formed with the Marines and his employment by US contractors for more than two years in Afghanistan, he recently received notice that his request for a Special Immigrant Visa was denied for the last time. Zaki and his family are now in uncertain territory alongside thousands of other Afghans who were evacuated from the country, as the humanitarian parole status they resettled in the US with is set to expire next year.

    A notice from the chief of mission for the US Embassy in Kabul dated November 30 said that Zaki’s request for the visa, which is meant to provide a pathway to the United States for Afghans who were employed by or worked on behalf of the US government, was denied due to an insufficient length of employment.

    “There is no further appeal of this decision,” the letter says. The denial was first reported by military news outlet Task & Purpose.

    Schueman said he doesn’t understand the problem: Zaki was employed by US contractors for more than a year, which is the required length of time to receive a SIV. Indeed, a letter of verification provided to CNN and signed by the chief operating officer of IAP Worldwide Services shows that he worked as a linguist in Kunar Province from January 2012 to December 2013 – just short of two years. Another verification letter showed he was employed by Mission Essential, another US contractor, from September 2010 to July 2011.

    However, the denial letter says that his verification letter from IAP is not valid. Pete Lucier, a Marine veteran who works with #AfghanEvac, a non-profit focused on “fulfilling the United States’ duty to Afghan allies,” said the problem likely lies with one sentence in the verification letter. The letter states that while Zaki “was not employed directly by my company, IAP Worldwide Services, Inc., he was assigned to me by our local [US Government] management.”

    “Reading denials is a bit like parsing a secret code, but they seem to be saying that since Zaki didn’t work for IAP, an IAP employee can’t confirm employment by a third company,” Lucier said.

    He added that the frustration over the paperwork is “absolutely valid. Everything that they provided should be more than enough, you shouldn’t have to dig up old records from these companies, and it’s pretty clear from what they assembled that this guy should probably be given the benefit of the doubt.”

    But that doesn’t seem to be the case, and Zaki told CNN that verification letter was all he had from his second stint of employment with US contractors. Today, he’s unsure of know how to get in touch with the US organization who’d employed him in order to request more paperwork.

    Rob Hargis, the chief operating officer of IAP who signed Zaki’s August 2021 verification letter, told CNN that Zaki was “employed by another company that worked on bases where we also worked,” and was “often on small tasks where one of our staff oversaw” him. Hargis said he was “disappointed” to hear that Zaki’s SIV had been denied and called the SIV process as a whole “hugely frustrating.”

    “To hear that Zaki’s case is denied is yet another example of an inflexible process where flexibility and judgement should be considered in each adjudication,” Hargis said. “From where we and many of our peers in the Defense Contracting Community sit, it is profoundly disappointing to see our former and faithful interpreters and other Afghan support staff languish in a process that is neither transparent, nor efficient.”

    Throughout his journey to the US and process to get his SIV after arriving, Zaki’s situation has drawn attention from lawmakers who are advocating behind the scenes to help him, as he and his family – a wife and five children, one of whom was born in Texas, where they live – face an uncertain future.

    The office of North Carolina Republican Rep. Ted Budd, who recently won a seat in the Senate, is “in contact with [Zainullah Zaki]” and “trying to successfully resolve his case,” Budd’s spokesman Curtis Kalin told CNN.

    Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, has also advocated for Zaki to receive a visa and for the passage of the Afghan Adjustment Act, which would provide a pathway to lawful permanent residency to Afghans who were evacuated to the US. But the legislation ultimately wasn’t included in the massive spending bill recently passed by Congress.

    “For 20 years, thousands of Afghans risked their lives to stand alongside our service members and diplomats during America’s longest war,” Durbin, who’s the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a statement to CNN. “We must now honor our commitment to them and provide a pathway to safety and certainty in the U.S. … Zaki and his family, and thousands of others, deserve no less, and I will continue to do what I can to help advocate for them.”

    The State Department declined to comment, citing visa records’ confidentiality.

    Despite the nuances and inner challenges of the SIV process, it’s all rather simple to Schueman. Zaki’s willingness to confront the Taliban in order to save the Marines on patrol, Schueman said, was “just one of many events where Zak demonstrated that he was willing to die for us.” That alone, he said, should be enough for him to receive support from the US.

    Travis Haggerty, who served in Schueman’s platoon and has since left service, said Zaki is the reason more of his fellow Marines weren’t killed or severely wounded on that deployment. He served as a “radar” of sorts, Haggerty said, helping them assess what was abnormal or dangerous in a country and culture they were unfamiliar with.

    And it didn’t stop there. Both Schueman and Haggerty said Zaki repeatedly went above and beyond his role as an interpreter.

    “If we were having to carry a casualty to a helicopter or to a safe place, Zak had no problem jumping on the stretcher and carrying a corner of that stretcher. He had no problem running with you towards someone who had just gotten blown up or shot, trying to see what he could do to make everyone safe,” Haggerty said. “He was just a constant … He stayed with us and was actively involved, because he thought we were family, and we thought he was family.”

    When Schueman met Zaki in 2010, the interpreter was roughly the same age as the young Marines he was working alongside. Schueman recalled that Zaki began working with them after others had quit; it was “too dangerous,” the Marine officer said.

    They had good reason to feel that way. The 3/5 Marines, nicknamed the “Darkhorse” battalion, lost 25 Marines during their deployment to Sangin, Afghanistan, one of the deadliest places for US and British forces in the country. Roughly 200 more were wounded. But the Marines said Zaki never balked.

    Zaki told CNN that he wanted to work with the US to “build a brighter Afghanistan.”

    That drive and passion for what he was doing was evident to the Marines who served with him.

    “From the minute we hit Afghanistan, we were told we were going into a really bad spot,” Trey Humphrey, another Marine who worked alongside Zaki, said. “Zak got assigned, and he was a pretty hard charger, I mean he was excited and eager to help … We went through some pretty f**ked up stuff, and a lot of guys got hurt or wounded or injured or killed, and I don’t know why the f**k Zak would want to do that job. There’s no way we paid him enough to do it.”

    Some of the Marines lost touch with Zaki after the deployment, but Schueman said he stayed in touch with his interpreter through Facebook. And in 2016, Zaki sent him a message telling him that persecution in Afghanistan was “increasing,” and he’d decided to apply for a SIV.

    “I think that was pretty tough for him in a lot of ways, because Zak joined with the US, allied with the US, essentially to have a more prosperous Afghanistan that he wanted to invest in, that he wanted to raise his family in, that he believed in,” Schueman said. “So, for him to make that decision to leave only came after like, significant duress, significant persecution … almost nightly death threats to his home.”

    Schueman agreed to help him, though he said neither of them knew much about the SIV process other than that it existed. In theory, he said, it’s “not complicated”– you serve a required amount of time with the US military, and you get a visa. Zaki had served roughly nine months with his Marines, and almost two years with another US contractor.

    “I thought it was pretty clear cut,” Schueman said, “but it did not end up turning out that way.”

    Like so many others who applied for a SIV, the process turned out much more laborious than they’d anticipated. For six years now the two have chipped away. Schueman said in all that time, there has “never been a person who has corresponded with us.” Instead, they get “an anonymous, kind of sanitized email” with a scripted response.

    That impersonal process is part of the problem, according to Lucier. Like Zaki’s letter of denial shows, applicants are often not given specific reasons as to why their paperwork is being rejected, or what in particular they need to fix, he said.

    The unit that reviews SIV approval “could have had a conversation here,” he said. “They could have followed up with the letter writer, requested an explanation, or more evidence,” Lucier said, highlighting that the process’ many requirements are “really difficult for anyone to navigate, but especially for non-Native English speakers, which more applicants are.”

    Zaki had all but given up by the time the US and its allies began pulling their forces out of Afghanistan last year. Schueman said he spoke with Zaki after it was announced in April 2021 that the US was leaving: “I asked Zak, I said, ‘What are the implications of that for you?’ He said, ‘That means my family and I will be killed.’”

    What followed was months of advocacy from Schueman, including media interviews and calls and meetings with lawmakers. Like so many other veterans of Afghanistan, Schueman was in a mad dash to get his former interpreter out of danger, though there was little direction on how exactly the US government was going to help. So, he took it upon himself. Schueman said he spoke a number of times with a friend who deployed to Kabul during the evacuation, helping connect the two in order to get Zaki and his family out.

    Eventually they did. Schueman said they first went to Qatar, then Germany, and finally landed in Philadelphia. From there, they went to Virginia, Minnesota, and eventually down to San Antonio, Texas, to be near family in the area.

     Zainullah Zaki and Tom Schueman

    “From there, he started working construction,” Schueman said. “He got a one-bedroom apartment. We started writing a book together. I mean, he was happy. He was safe. They’ve got a great Muslim community down there … He’s really been embracing setting into his new American life.”

    That safety, however, once again seemed to be put in jeopardy on November 30, when Zaki received notice that his request for an SIV was rejected.

    Schueman called the letter “devastating,” and thought it was particularly difficult to understand given all the media attention that had been on Zaki’s case.

    “It’s something we’ve been working towards for six years,” Schueman said, “something that the documentation so clearly demonstrated that he earned and with no explanation, just, ‘You may not appeal. This is your final determination; you may not appeal.’”

    Lucier told CNN that due to a recent change in law, there may still be potential for an appeal, despite the letter’s assertion. But Zaki’s troubles are indicative of much broader flaws within the SIV program, Lucier said, that leave people with “confounding, confusing denials” and stuck in a “nightmare of bureaucracy.”

    It’s understandable that there’s a process, and that the process is imperfect, Humphrey said. But it’s hard not to take it personally when he and his fellow Marines saw day in and day out what Zaki did for them. There’s not “a single person more deserving of being pushed through this process,” he said, and in a perfect world, those behind the SIV process would be able to see the person and the story behind the paperwork.

    Zaki is not the only Afghan evacuee in limbo after escaping the Taliban’s rule last year. Roughly 83,000 people – including Afghan nationals, lawful permanent residents, and American citizens – came to the US as part of Operation Allies Welcome. But as evacuated Afghans near the two-year expiration date of their temporary status, advocates have pushed for Congress to take action in helping them secure a pathway to lawful permanent residency.

    Although the legislation attempting to solidify that pathway was not included in the massive spending bill voted on last week, lawmakers did include legislation to extend and expand the SIV program for Afghans who worked with the US.

    Zaki, Haggerty said, “genuinely wants the American dream for his kids.”

    “He’ll make a really incredible American citizen when that day comes,” Haggerty said. “And it should come sooner rather than later.”

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    December 28, 2022
  • Southwest Airlines cancels two-thirds of its flights, with more cancellations planned

    Southwest Airlines cancels two-thirds of its flights, with more cancellations planned

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    Southwest Airlines Co. canceled more than two-thirds of its flights Monday and plans to slash its schedules Tuesday and Wednesday, in a meltdown that stranded thousands of customers and that worsened while other airlines began to recover from the holiday winter storm.

    “We had a tough day today. In all likelihood we’ll have another tough day tomorrow as we work our way out of this,” Chief Executive Bob Jordan said in an interview Monday evening. “This is the largest scale event that I’ve ever seen.” 

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    plans to operate just over one-third of its typical schedule in the coming days to give itself leeway for crews to get into the right positions, he said, adding that the reduced schedule could be extended.

    Southwest’s more than 2,800 scrapped flights Monday, the highest of any major U.S. airline, came as the Dallas-based airline proved unable to stabilize its operations amid the past week’s storm. Between Thursday and Monday, the airline canceled about 8,000 flights, according to FlightAware.

    On Monday, the Department of Transportation called Southwest’s rate of cancellations “disproportionate and unacceptable” and said it would examine whether the cancellations were controllable and whether the airline is complying with its customer service plan.

    Ryan Green, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, said in an interview the airline is taking steps such as covering customers’ reasonable travel costs—including hotels, rental cars and tickets on other airlines, and will be communicating the process for customers to have expenses reimbursed. He also said customers whose flights are being canceled as the airline recovers are entitled to refunds if they opt not to travel. 

    The troubles at Southwest intensified Monday despite generally improving weather conditions and warming temperatures throughout much of the eastern half of the country, which had been pummeled by snow, wind and subfreezing temperatures in recent days.

    An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

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    December 26, 2022
  • How the January 6 panel unearthed key details from little-known insiders | CNN Politics

    How the January 6 panel unearthed key details from little-known insiders | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The story of January 6 has largely focused on a cast of very prominent characters, including former President Donald Trump and members of his inner circle who have become household names, like his former attorney Rudy Giuliani and his White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

    But those with notable names were merely the tip of the iceberg for the January 6 committee, which spent 18 months investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The panel interviewed more than 1,000 witnesses behind closed doors, including scores of Trump aides who were hardly ever in the headlines.

    The January 6 committee’s report, which came out Thursday, highlights how investigators tracked down little-known insiders – from the Trump campaign to the National Guard to the Republican National Committee – who witnessed key moments and provided critical information to the panel.

    One critical example of the outsize role of little-known figures: The committee’s report mentions an unnamed White House staffer who told Trump around 1:21 p.m. on January 6, 2021, that “they’re rioting down at the Capitol.” This represents one of the first instances of Trump being told directly that the situation was descending into violence.

    With the panel’s report public and witness interview transcripts trickling out on a daily basis, we’re getting a new glimpse into how these obscure figures played big roles in the inquiry. Some of them even provided information that will be useful to the ongoing criminal probes by the Justice Department and state prosecutors in Georgia, who are investigating Trump’s election schemes.

    Here are a few lesser-known insiders and what they shared with the committee.

    The committee’s dive into the hundreds of millions of dollars that were made in campaign fundraising off Trump’s bogus election fraud claims includes the story of a young RNC staffer who was fired after he pushed back on some of the assertions being made in fundraising emails.

    Ethan Katz, who provided testimony to the committee, was an RNC copywriter who made clear to his superiors he was not comfortable with the false claims the Trump campaign and its allies were making after the election, according to the report.

    His direct boss told the committee that she wasn’t sure why Katz was terminated three weeks after the election. However, it came after Katz repeatedly questioned the direction leadership was taking in Republicans’ post-election fundraising messaging.

    The first confrontation – corroborated by multiple witnesses – came in a meeting with the entirety of the Trump digital team, in which Katz grilled a higher-up on how the campaign was saying it wanted to stop the count in several battleground states while keeping it going in another.

    In the second episode in the report, he refused a directive to write an email declaring Trump the winner in Pennsylvania – an email Katz suspected was meant to preempt the election being called for Joe Biden in that state.

    Another copy writer was assigned the task, the report said, and an email falsely declaring a Trump victory in Pennsylvania was sent on November 4.

    Katz was one of several lower-level digital staffers who spoke to the committee, shedding light on how the campaign and the RNC tried to walk the line between not putting themselves in potential legal jeopardy by blasting out false claims while exploiting Trump’s fraud narrative for fundraising.

    Among the first people the committee identifies as having concocted the fake electors strategy – in which slates of fraudulent Trump electors were put forward as alternatives to Biden electors – is Vince Haley, the deputy assistant to the president for policy, strategy and speechwriting.

    Texts and emails that Haley turned over to the committee show how he repeatedly pushed the idea of using illegitimate GOP slates of presidential electors in battleground states to some of Trump’s closest staff members.

    Supposed election fraud by Democrats is “only one rationale for slating Trump electors,” Haley told Johnny McEntee, an assistant to Trump, in text messages one week after the 2020 election that he turned over to the January 6 committee.

    “We should baldly assert” that state legislators “have the constitutional right to substitute their judgment for a certified majority of their constituents” if that prevents socialism, he said.

    The messages highlight how Trump allies and White House staffers appeared to know that their efforts to overturn the election could be problematic early on but believed they were justified if the plan was successful in keeping Trump in office.

    Haley added, “[i]ndependent of the fraud – or really along with that argument – Harrisburg [Pennsylvania], Madison [Wisconsin] and Lansing [Michigan] do not have to sit idly by and submit themselves to rule by Beijing and Paris,” proposing that conservative radio hosts “rally the grassroots to apply pressure to the weak kneed legislators in those states.”

    Haley then sent McEntee names and contact information for state legislators in six states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump later called several of those state officials, according to the report.

    Two not-well-known Trump campaign officials who were already of interest to the Justice Department provided especially helpful testimony to the January 6 committee.

    One of them, Georgia-based staffer Robert Sinners, described how he felt misled by campaign higher-ups about the legal sketchiness around the fake electors plan – evidence that might go to show a corrupt intent.

    The second, Trump campaign associate general counsel Joshua Findlay, described fielding concerns from the activists being recruited to be fake electors and recounted to the committee how the campaign’s core team tried to hand off the scheme to the more fringe Trump lawyers.

    Findlay also gave valuable testimony connecting the plot to the former president himself. He told the committee that he was tasked by another campaign official in early December with exploring the feasibility of the plan and that the official conveyed to him that the president wanted the campaign to “look into” the alternative electors proposal.

    When it was decided that Giuliani would be in charge of the gambit, Findlay was left with the impression that it was because Trump wanted Giuliani to lead it. Findlay testified that Trump campaign leadership backed off the plan a few days after he had been told to look into it, with top lawyers bailing on the idea.

    However, the campaign’s director of election day operations, Mike Roman, took on a chief operation role in the gambit.

    The role played by Roman – who declined to answer many of committee’s questions in his testimony, invoking his Fifth Amendment rights – was fleshed out by communications handed over to the committee by Sinners. They showed that Roman was organizing information tracking the effort.

    Sinners told the committee that he would not have participated with the scheme had he known the campaign’s top lawyers were not on board with the plan. He testified that he felt “angry,” according to the report, that “no one really cared if – if people were potentially putting themselves in jeopardy” by doing this, and “we were just … useful idiots or rubes at that point.”

    The Justice Department has been seeking information about Sinners and Findlay. Their committee testimony, along with that of others, showed how the Trump campaign was willing to move forward with the fake electors plot – putting its participants in legal jeopardy – even as its top lawyers sought to distance themselves from the scheme.

    To get to the heart of what was happening in the White House and Trump campaign war rooms, the committee looked to junior staffers – people who were key observers to the action but didn’t have an orchestrating role.

    One such staffer was Angela McCallum, the national executive assistant on Trump’s reelection campaign.

    After the election, McCallum was part of the Trump campaign’s operation to contact hundreds of state legislators to ask for their support for efforts to replace state electors.

    Though McCallum does not appear to have had a leadership role in the operation, nor was she directly quoted by the committee, footnotes from the report show that she turned over several text messages, campaign spreadsheets and even a script for calling state legislators.

    Her insight appears to have given the committee information on the campaign’s outreach efforts to push the fake electors plan. Her notes say that campaign staff tried contacting over 190 Republican state legislators in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan alone.

    McCallum’s text records also show how campaign supervisors viewed the ongoing outreach efforts. In one instance, McCallum provided a text message sent by an operative the committee believes may have brought the fake elector certificates to Washington, based on the message’s photo of the operative in front of the Capitol.

    “This has got to be the cover a book I write one day,” the operative, whom the committee could not find to serve a subpoena, said in the message. “I should probably buy [Mike] [R]oman a tie or something for sending me on this one. Hasn’t been done since 1876 and it was only 3 states that did it.”

    In another message, the operative, who was McCallum’s supervisor, celebrated after reporters published a recorded voicemail McCallum left on a state legislators’ phone.

    “Honest to god I’m so proud of this” because “[t]hey unwittingly just got your message out there,” the message read, according to the report.

    He continued, telling McCallum that “you used the awesome power of the presidency to scare a state rep into getting a statewide newspaper to deliver your talking points.”

    The long delay in sending National Guard troops to the US Capitol on January 6 was among the most glaring security failures that day. Previously unreported testimony revealed for the first time in the committee’s final report shows that one commander on the ground had his forces ready to respond hours before they were given approval to actually do so.

    National Guard Col. Craig Hunter is not a household name, but as the highest-ranking commander on the ground on January 6, his testimony helped the committee untangle conflicting accounts provided by more senior officials and ultimately arrive at a conclusion about what caused the delayed response.

    Hunter provided a detailed timeline of his own actions that day, including that he immediately started preparing his troops to respond at around 2 p.m. ET after hearing that shots had reportedly been fired at the US Capitol.

    “So, at that point in my mind I said, ‘Okay, then they will be requesting the DC National Guard now, so we have to move,” Hunter told the committee, according to its final report.

    Within the hour, Hunter had a plan in place. Over 100 National Guard troops were already loaded on to buses with their gear, and Hunter informed other responding law enforcement agencies that backup was coming as soon as he got approval from his superiors.

    “At 3:10 p.m., Colonel Hunter felt it was time to tell his superiors all that he had done and hopefully get fast approval,” the report says.

    But Hunter was unaware that a looming communications breakdown between senior military leaders – including the acting secretary of Defense and secretary of the Army – would delay approval of his plan for more than three hours.

    At that very moment, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy was putting together a redundant plan for transporting those forces to the Capitol and was not aware that he had already been given authority to issue the order himself, the report says.

    The confusion, coupled with a lack of communication between senior military leaders and commanders on the ground, was a key factor in the delayed response, the report says.

    In hindsight, the failures of top military officials are even more glaring considering Hunter had already devised a plan that could have been put into motion hours earlier.

    They also did not occur in a vacuum. Trump could have personally intervened at any time, to hasten and coordinate the military response, but chose not to.

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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    December 25, 2022
  • Biden signs vital $858 billion defense bill into law, nixing military’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate | CNN Politics

    Biden signs vital $858 billion defense bill into law, nixing military’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden on Friday signed the National Defense Authorization Act into law, a massive defense spending bill with provisions that will give service members a pay raise, fund support for Ukraine and Taiwan and rescind the US military’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate.

    In a statement following the signing of the NDAA, Biden said the act “provides vital benefits and enhances access to justice for military personnel and their families, and includes critical authorities to support our country’s national defense, foreign affairs, and homeland security.”

    The Senate voted last week to pass the massive NDAA with bipartisan support. It follows the House’s bipartisan approval of the legislation the week prior.

    The defense bill outlines the policy agenda for the Department of Defense and the US military and authorizes spending in line with the Pentagon’s priorities. But it does not appropriate the funding itself. The legislation, which authorizes $817 billion specifically for the Department of Defense, will provide $45 billion more than Biden’s budget request earlier this year.

    The increase for fiscal year 2023 is intended to address the effects of inflation and accelerate the implementation of the national defense strategy, according to the Senate Armed Services Committee. It authorizes $12.6 billion for the inflation impact on purchases, $3.8 billion for the impact on military construction projects and $2.5 billion for the impact on fuel purchases, according to a bill summary from the committee.

    The NDAA includes provisions to strengthen air power and land warfare defense capabilities, as well as cybersecurity. And it shows Congress’ continued support for helping Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, even though several Republican lawmakers have raised questions about the ongoing US aid. Additionally, the NDAA establishes a specific defense modernization program for Taiwan to deter aggression by China.

    Among a series of provisions to support service members and their families, the funding will provide a 4.6% increase in military basic pay for service members – the largest in 20 years. The Department of Defense’s civilian workforce will get the same raise. It also bumps up service members’ housing allowance.

    In addressing service member suicides, the act requires the Secretary of Defense to compile a report on suicide rates within the ranks.

    The act also ends the requirement that troops receive the Covid-19 vaccine. However, it will not reinstate members of the military who were discharged for refusing to get vaccinated.

    White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre previously said the White House had viewed the removal of the vaccine mandate as “a mistake,” but she declined to say whether Biden would sign a bill that ends the requirement, noting that the president would “judge the bill in its entirety.”

    Biden said in his statement on Friday that while he’s pleased the funding bill supports several critical objectives, “certain provisions of the Act raise concerns.”

    He repeated past concerns about barring funds to transfer Guantanamo Bay detainees into the custody of certain foreign nations and several “constitutional concerns or questions of construction” over other provisions – including concerns about the transmission of highly sensitive information to Congress.

    Biden also called a portion of the NDAA requiring that documents, including presidential communications, be shared unconstitutional.

    “I will commit to complying with its disclosure requirements only in such cases where a committee has a need for such Presidential communications that outweighs the potential harm to the confidentiality interests underlying the Presidential communications privilege,” the president’s statement said.

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    December 23, 2022
  • B-2 nuke bomber fleet is temporarily grounded due to safety issue | CNN Politics

    B-2 nuke bomber fleet is temporarily grounded due to safety issue | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    The Air Force’s fleet of B-2 Spirit bombers is temporarily grounded after one of the aircraft had an in-flight malfunction earlier this month.

    On December 10, a B-2 had to make an emergency landing and was damaged on the runway at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. There were no injuries from the event, and no munitions aboard the aircraft, though the Air Force’s 509th Bomb Wing Public Affairs announced days later there would be a “safety pause” of the fleet in order to inspect it further.

    The 509th Bomb Wing said in a news release on Tuesday evening that the stand-down was directed by Air Force Global Strike Command, and that the B-2 fleet “can be flown if directed by the commander in chief to fulfill mission requirements.”

    Master Sgt. Beth Del Vecchio, a spokesperson for the 509th Bomb Wing, confirmed on Tuesday that B-2 flights were currently paused as the fleet underwent an inspection, and said there is “no speculated end date for the safety pause.”

    “Every incident is unique, and we are currently evaluating the incident and how we can mitigate future risk,” Del Vecchio said. “Normal operations will resume at the conclusion of the safety pause.”

    An Air Force spokesperson said Tuesday that the Whiteman Air Force Base runway was currently closed due to debris; the 509th Bomb Wing’s news release on Tuesday says it will reopen as soon as the debris is cleared, and B-2 operations “will resume at the conclusion of the safety stand-down.”

    The B-2 Spirit is a multi-role heavy bomber, meaning it can carry both conventional and nuclear munitions. The fleet of stealth aircraft is housed at Whiteman. According to the Air Force, the first B-2 was delivered at Whiteman in 1993, and quickly proved its combat effectiveness during Operation Allied Force, the NATO campaign against Serbia, and was later used in Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom.

    The B-2, as well as the B-1, are expected to be replaced over time by the Air Force’s new B-21 Raider, a new stealth bomber aircraft that was unveiled by Northrop Grumman earlier this month. The B-21 event was the first time a new US bomber was publicly unveiled since the B-2 Spirit in 1988.

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    December 21, 2022
  • Indonesia president supports plan to scale back troops in restive Papua | CNN

    Indonesia president supports plan to scale back troops in restive Papua | CNN

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    Indonesian President Joko Widodo said on Monday he supports plans to scale back the presence of troops in the eastern region of Papua, where the country’s military has been accused of human rights abuses in tackling a long-running independence movement.

    Jokowi, as the president is known, said “the reduction of military troops in Papua is good, but we need to continue to be stern,” after appointing a new chief of armed forces.

    Otherwise, he said, armed rebel groups will continue to operate there and “the problem will never end”.

    It was unclear when and by how much the military presence in Papua would be scaled back.

    Indonesia’s easternmost region of Papua has seen a long-simmering separatist movement, which has intensified in recent years. The military maintains a heavy presence in the impoverished region, and has been accused by activist groups of human rights abuses, which it denies.

    Former military chief Andika Perkasa had in 2021 advocated for a “humanistic approach” in Papua that emphasizes communicating with rebel groups, according to state news agency Antara.

    When asked whether troops in Papua would be reduced, newly-installed military chief, Yudo Margono, told reporters on Monday that he would go to Papua and evaluate the situation before making a decision but did not provide details.

    Jakarta-based research group, the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, said in a report this year that the frequency of insurgency-related violence in Papua had increased from an average of 11 incidents a year between 2010 to 2017 to 52 incidents a year from 2018-2021.

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    December 19, 2022
  • Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

    Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

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    Taipei, Taiwan
    CNN
     — 

    Taiwan has noticed a hole in its defense plans that is steadily getting bigger. And it’s not one easily plugged by boosting the budget or buying more weapons.

    The island democracy of 23.5 million is facing an increasing challenge in recruiting enough young men to meet its military targets and its Interior Ministry has suggested the problem is – at least in part – due to its stubbornly low birth rate.

    Taiwan’s population fell for the first time in 2020, according to the ministry, which warned earlier this year that the 2022 military intake would be the lowest in a decade and that a continued drop in the youth population would pose a “huge challenge” for the future.

    That’s bad news at a time when Taiwan is trying to bolster its forces to deter any potential invasion by China, whose ruling Communist Party has been making increasingly belligerent noises about its determination to “reunify” with the self-governed island – which it has never controlled – by force if necessary.

    And the outlook has darkened further with the release of a new report by Taiwan’s National Development Council projecting that by 2035 the island can expect roughly 20,000 fewer births per year than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will also overtake South Korea as the jurisdiction with the world’s lowest birth rate, the report added.

    Such projections are feeding into a debate over whether the government should increase the period of mandatory military service that eligible young men must serve. Currently, the island has a professional military force made up of 162,000 (as of June this year) – 7,000 fewer than the target, according to a report by the Legislative Yuan. In addition to that number, all eligible men must serve four months of training as reservists.

    Changing the mandatory service requirement would be a major U-turn for Taiwan, which had previously been trying to cut down on conscription and shortened the mandatory service from 12 months as recently as 2018. But on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defence Chiu Kuo-cheng said such plans would be made public before the end of the year.

    That news has met with opposition among some young students in Taiwan, who have voiced their frustrations on PTT, Taiwan’s version of Reddit, even if there is support for the move among the wider public.

    A poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in March this year found that most Taiwanese agreed with a proposal to lengthen the service period. It found that 75.9% of respondents thought it reasonable to extend it to a year; only 17.8% were opposed.

    Many experts argue there is simply no other option.

    Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that before 2016, the pool of men eligible to join the military – either as career soldiers or as reservists – was about 110,000. Since then, he said, the number had declined every year and the pool would likely be as low as 74,000 by 2025.

    And within the next decade, Su said, the number of young adults available for recruitment by the Taiwanese military could drop by as much as a third.

    “This is a national security issue for us,” he said. “The population pool is decreasing, so we are actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs.

    “We are now facing an increasing threat (from China), and we need to have more firepower and manpower.”

    Taiwan’s low birth rate – 0.98 – is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, but it is no outlier in East Asia.

    In November, South Korea broke its own world record when its birth rate dropped to 0.79, while Japan’s fell to 1.3 and mainland China hit 1.15.

    Even so, experts say the trend poses a unique problem for Taiwan’s military, given the relative size of the island and the threats it faces.

    China has been making increasingly aggressive noises toward the island since August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taipei. Not long after she landed in Taiwan, Beijing also launched a series of unprecedented military exercises around the island.

    Since then, the temperature has remained high – particularly as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told a key Communist Party meeting in October that “reunification” was inevitable and that he reserves the option of taking “all measures necessary.”

    Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said that while low birth rates were common across East Asia, “the situation in Taiwan is very different” as the island was facing “more and more pressure (from China) and the situation will become more acute.”

    “The United States has military bases in Japan and South Korea, while Singapore does not face an acute military threat from its neighbors. Taiwan faces the greatest threat and declining birth rate will make the situation even more serious,” he added.

    Roy Lee, a deputy executive director at Taiwan’s Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, agreed that the security threats facing Taiwan were greater than those in the rest of the region.

    “The situation is more challenging for Taiwan, because our population base is smaller than other countries facing similar problems,” he added.

    Taiwan’s population is 23.5 million, compared to South Korea’s 52 million, Japan’s 126 million and China’s 1.4 billion.

    Besides the shrinking recruitment pool, the decline in the youth population could also threaten the long-term performance of Taiwan’s economy – which is itself a pillar of the island’s defense.

    Taiwan is the world’s 21st largest economy, according to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research, and had a GDP of $668.51 billion last year.

    Much of its economic heft comes from its leading role in the supply of semiconductor chips, which play an indispensable role in everything from smartphones to computers.

    Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor giant TSMC is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy – as well as to China – that it is sometimes referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing, as its presence would give a strong incentive to the West to intervene.

    Lee noted that population levels are closely intertwined with gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity. A population decline of 200,000 people could result in a 0.4% decline in GDP, all else being equal, he said.

    “It is very difficult to increase GDP by 0.4%, and would require a lot of effort. So the fact that a declining population can take away that much growth is big,” he said.

    Taiwan’s government has brought in a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to have babies, but with limited success.

    It pays parents a monthly stipend of 5,000 Taiwan dollars (US$161) for their first baby, and a higher amount for each additional one.

    Since last year, pregnant women have been eligible for seven days of leave for obstetrics checks prior to giving birth.

    Outside the military, in the wider economy, the island has been encouraging migrant workers to fill job vacancies.

    Statistics from the National Development Council showed that about 670,000 migrant workers were in Taiwan at the end of last year – comprising about 3% of the population.

    Most of the migrant workers are employed in the manufacturing sector, the council said, the vast majority of them from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

    Lee said in the long term the Taiwanese government would likely have to reform its immigration policies to bring in more migrant workers.

    Still, there are those who say Taiwan’s low birth rate is no reason to panic, just yet.

    Alice Cheng, an associate professor in sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned against reading too much into population trends as they were affected by so many factors.

    She pointed out that just a few decades ago, many demographers were warning of food shortages caused by a population explosion.

    And even if the low birth rate endured, that might be no bad thing if it were a reflection of an improvement in women’s rights, she said.

    “The educational expansion that took place in the 70s and 80s in East Asia dramatically changed women’s status. It really pushed women out of their homes because they had knowledge, education and career prospects,” she said.

    “The next thing you see globally is that once women’s education level improved, fertility rates started declining.”

    “All these East Asian countries are really scratching their head and trying to think about policies and interventions to boost fertility rates,” she added.

    “But if that’s something that really, (women) don’t want, can you push them to do that?”

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    December 16, 2022
  • US military braces for impact of Covid vaccine mandate repeal | CNN Politics

    US military braces for impact of Covid vaccine mandate repeal | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    As a repeal of the US military’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate took a step closer to becoming law on Thursday, military officials and experts are warning it’s a change that could have adverse ripple-effects on military readiness and the ability of service members to deploy around the world.

    “This isn’t just our side of the equation,” a defense official told CNN regarding the possible impact of the change. “It’s what our partners and people that we would train and work with are asking us to do to enter the country.”

    The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) released on Tuesday includes a provision that would rescind the Pentagon’s current mandate requiring troops receive the Covid vaccine. And while Republican lawmakers have celebrated its inclusion, the White House said it’s a mistake – though President Joe Biden has not made clear if he will sign the bill with the included provision in it.

    The House passed the NDAA on Thursday in a 350-80 vote.

    Deputy Defense Press Secretary Sabrina Singh declined on Wednesday to go into detail about what the Pentagon was preparing for if the mandate was repealed, instead emphasizing that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin believes the mandate is important for the health of the force.

    “What is important to the readiness of the force is getting the vaccine,” Singh said. “So yes, it would impact the readiness of the force – you’re more prone to getting Covid-19.”

    It’s not just about the US. American troops often have additional vaccine requirements depending on the area of the world to which they are deploying or being rotated through. Under the Pentagon’s current policy, service members who have not gotten the vaccine are considered non-deployable, Singh said Wednesday.

    Indeed, retired Gen. Robert Abrams, who previously commanded US troops in South Korea, told CNN that the vaccine repeal “will make our job more difficult,” referring to the duties of overseas commanders. The Covid-19 vaccine is required for entry to South Korea and Japan – countries that host thousands of US service members.

    Repealing the vaccine mandate “will put the US forces in an awkward position,” Abrams said, because “the host nation expects us to follow their regulations (and SOFA [status of forces agreement] requires it).”

    Republicans have long railed against the Covid vaccine requirement – which is one of more than 15 required vaccines, depending on where a service member is deployed.

    An August 2021 policy signed by Austin required all service members to receive the vaccine; the services set their own deadlines for when their troops had to be fully vaccinated.

    Now, roughly a year later, the vast majority of US troops are: 97% of active duty soldiers are completely vaccinated, as are 99% of active duty airmen, 96% of active duty Marines, and 98% of active duty sailors.

    But as the military faces the biggest recruiting crisis in decades, critics of the mandate say it is pushing out willing service members at a time when the military needs them most and standing in the way of recruits who want to join but do not want to get the vaccine.

    Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger said over the weekend that the mandate is having an impact on recruiting, specifically “in parts of the country there’s still myths and misbeliefs about the back story behind it.” Capt. Ryan Bruce, a Marine Corps spokesman, later told CNN Berger was referencing “anecdotal conversations” he has had with recruiters, and not specific data showing an impact of the mandate on recruitment.

    Officials and experts raised other concerns, however, about the impact repealing the mandate could have on troops already in uniform. Rachel VanLandingham, a retired Air Force judge advocate and law professor at Southwestern Law School, told CNN that there could be “ripple effects” for units if some service members are unable to deploy because of the vaccine.

    That is especially notable for smaller units, like those found in the special operations community. While conventional forces may be able to ensure they have the numbers they need for a deployment or rotation, smaller units could face more of a challenge if the few people they have are unable to deploy because of a vaccine requirement.

    “If one unit can’t go, then the unit they’re replacing, they don’t get to go home on leave … It’s not just one unit and one person,” VanLandingham said. “One person’s inability to show up to work in a military unit affects that entire unit, and that unit is depended on by other units. It is truly a team dynamic.”

    Abrams also pointed out that vaccinations “help prevent serious illness,” and US Forces Korea “does not have the medical capacity to handle a large number of very sick infected personnel.” Instead, US personnel would have to be sent to Korean facilities, he said, which could raise issues if there is a lack of availability or if the facility is not approved by TRICARE, the US military’s health care provider.

    Experts also raised questions about the precedent it would set to roll back a lawful military order after so many refused to follow it.

    “If I’m a commander, what concerns do I have about managing this person who failed to comply with a lawful order?” said Kate Kuzminski, the director of the Military, Veterans, and Society Program at the Center for New American Security.

    “I think there are some bigger challenges within the social context and the culture of the military if pushing back on a lawful order actually changes the nature of the lawful order,” she added. “You might see people refusing to do other things in the future that we very much need them to do.”

    Among the debated points of the vaccine repeal is the question of what will happen to the roughly 8,000 service members who have already been separated and forced to leave the military because they refused to be vaccinated. While some speculate that because they refused a lawful order they will remain separated, some lawmakers are pushing for them to be reinstated.

    A letter sent on November 30 to Republican leadership and signed by 13 Republican senators requests that not only is the mandate rescinded, but that service members who have been separated are reinstated “with back pay.” Pentagon leaders are reportedly discussing the possibility.

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    December 8, 2022
  • Al Jazeera to submit Shireen Abu Akleh case to ICC, network says | CNN Business

    Al Jazeera to submit Shireen Abu Akleh case to ICC, network says | CNN Business

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    Jerusalem
    CNN
     — 

    Al Jazeera said Tuesday it will submit a case to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the killing of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was shot in the head while covering an Israeli raid in Jenin in the occupied West Bank in May.

    “Al Jazeera’s legal team has conducted a full and detailed investigation into the case and unearthed new evidence based on several eyewitness accounts, the examination of multiple items of video footage, and forensic evidence pertaining to the case,” Al Jazeera said in a statement.

    The network claims new evidence and video show the Palestinian-American journalist and her colleagues were directly fired at in a “deliberate killing” by what Al Jazeera called Israeli occupation forces, a claim which Israel has repeatedly denied.

    Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid Tuesday repeated a long-standing rejection that any outside authority would investigate Israel Defense Forces troops.

    “No one will investigate IDF soldiers and no one will preach to us about morals in warfare, certainly not Al Jazeera,” Lapid said.

    The IDF referred CNN questions about the ICC case to the Prime Minister’s Office and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which declined to comment.

    In September, the IDF ​admitted there is a “high possibility” Abu Akleh was “accidentally” shot and killed by Israeli fire aimed at “suspects identified as armed Palestinian gunmen during an exchange of fire.”

    The IDF said at the time the Israeli military did not intend to pursue criminal charges or prosecutions of any of the soldiers involved.

    A CNN investigation published two weeks after Abu Akleh was killed suggested that the fatal shot came from a position where IDF troops are known to have been positioned. The pattern of gunfire on a tree behind where she was standing at the time suggested that the gunfire was targeted rather than indiscriminate, an expert told CNN.

    The CNN investigation unearthed evidence — including two videos of the scene of the shooting — suggesting that there was no active combat, nor any Palestinian militants, near Abu Akleh in the moments leading up to her death.

    She was wearing a flak jacket identifying her as press at the time she was killed.

    Al Jazeera said Tuesday: “The claim by the Israeli authorities that Shireen was killed by mistake in an exchange of fire is completely unfounded. The evidence presented to the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) confirms, without any doubt, that there was no firing in the area where Shireen was, other than the IOF (Israeli Occupation Forces) shooting directly at her.”

    “The IOF inquiry that found there was no suspicion of any crime being committed is entirely undermined by the available evidence which has now been provided to the OTP. The evidence shows that this deliberate killing was part of a wider campaign to target and silence Al Jazeera,” the network added.

    Abu Akleh’s family also submitted an official complaint to the International Criminal Court (ICC) earlier this year to demand justice for her death, Al Jazeera reported.

    CNN has contacted the ICC to confirm if they received the case.

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    December 6, 2022
  • Late Chinese leader Jiang hailed in memorial service

    Late Chinese leader Jiang hailed in memorial service

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    BEIJING — China’s communist leaders eulogized the late leader Jiang Zemin on Tuesday as a loyal Marxist-Leninist who oversaw their country’s rapid economic rise while maintaining rigid party control over society.

    President and party leader Xi Jinping praised Jiang in an hour-long address at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People as senior officials and military brass stood at attention.

    Xi recalled Jiang’s lengthy political career, emphasizing his role in maintaining political stability in allusion to Jiang’s rise to be top leader just ahead of the army’s bloody suppression of the 1989 student-led pro-democracy movement centered on Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

    Jiang died at age 96, just days after China’s largest street protests since 1989, which were driven by anger over draconian COVID-19 restrictions. Acting to quell the protests, authorities flooded city streets with security personnel and an unknown number of people have been detained.

    Those attending Tuesday’s memorial observed three minutes of silence and trading was paused on the country’s stock exchanges.

    On Monday, state broadcaster CCTV showed Xi, his predecessor Hu Jintao and others bowing before Jiang’s coffin at a military hospital in Beijing before his body was sent for cremation at the Babaoshan cemetery, where many Chinese leaders are interred.

    Jiang led China out of diplomatic isolation over the 1989 crackdown and supported economic reforms that spurred a decade of explosive growth. The economy has slowed as it matures and confronts an aging population, trade sanctions, high unemployment and the fallout from lockdowns and other anti-COVID-19 restrictions imposed by Xi.

    A trained engineer and former head of China’s largest city, Shanghai, Jiang was president for a decade, and led the ruling Communist Party for 13 years until 2002. After taking over from reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, he oversaw the handover of Hong Kong from British rule in 1997 and Beijing’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001.

    Jiang died of leukemia and multiple organ failure on Nov. 30 in Shanghai, state media reported. The party declared him a “great proletarian revolutionary” and “long-tested Communist fighter.”

    Hu’s appearance was his first in public since Oct. 22, when he was unexpectedly guided off the stage during the closing ceremony of the national congress of the Communist Party.

    No official explanation was given, and speculation over his abrupt departure has ranged from a health crisis to a signal of protest by the 79-year-old former leader against Xi, who has eliminated term limits on his position and appointed loyalists to all top positions.

    In Hong Kong, officials, lawmakers and judges observed three minutes of silence Tuesday morning.

    The Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not halt trading but its external screens at Exchange Square downtown stopped showing data for three minutes. The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, also in Hong Kong, suspended trading briefly to mark the occasion.

    An official memorial for Jiang drew large crowds over the weekend, mostly older Hong Kongers who have seen Hong Kong’s transition from British to Chinese rule. The handover was made with a pledge by China that Hong Kong would maintain its own social, economic and legal systems for 50 years.

    A sweeping crackdown on freedom of speech and assembly, electoral reforms that effectively eliminated the political opposition and the imposition of a draconian National Security Law under Xi have drained most of the substance from the “one country, two systems” framework as promised under Jiang.

    ———

    Associated Press reporter Kanis Leung contributed to this report from Hong Kong.

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    December 5, 2022
  • ‘I am fighting a noble fight’: Why some Russians have vowed to resist Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | CNN

    ‘I am fighting a noble fight’: Why some Russians have vowed to resist Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | CNN

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    Dolyna, Ukraine
    CNN
     — 

    A soldier in a Ukrainian uniform morosely contemplates the ruins of an Orthodox monastery in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

    “This is a result of Putin’s war,” he says, angrily, as he paces through the wreck. “As a Christian, this is very offensive to me.”

    The soldier, whose name CNN agreed not to reveal to protect his identity, goes by the call-sign “Caesar.” He is one of hundreds, if not thousands, fighting to keep the town of Bakhmut, the current epicenter of the war, in Ukrainian hands.

    But there’s one thing that sets him apart from most of those who share the same goal: he’s Russian.

    “From the first day of the war, my heart, the heart of a real Russian man, a real Christian, told me that I had to be here to defend the people of Ukraine,” Caesar explains. “We are now fighting in the Bakhmut direction, this is the hottest part of the front.”

    Few, if any, buildings of the eastern Ukrainian town have been spared by the unending artillery barrages fired from side to side. Many of the structures have been completely destroyed, others left uninhabitable with collapsed sections, in apocalyptic scenes reminiscent of the battered city of Mariupol, captured by Russia earlier in the war.

    “After the (Russian) mobilization (in September), Putin threw all his forces (at Bakhmut) in order to achieve a breaking point in the war, but we are putting up a fierce defensive fight,” Caesar says.

    Much of Ukraine’s resisting force has had to hunker down in muddy trenches, fighting tooth and nail to deny Russian forces a victory they desperately crave.

    “The fighting is very brutal now,” Caesar explains.

    A few miles away from the battle, but still in earshot of the constant thuds and explosions, Caesar’s commitment is unflinching and he does not regret his decision to join Ukraine’s foreign legion.

    While the urge to sign up came early on in the conflict, he could only leave his home country, with his close family, and join the Ukrainian military in the summer.

    “It was a very difficult process,” he says. “It took me several months to finally join the ranks of the defenders of Ukraine.”

    Now with his family in Ukraine – where he considers them to be safer – Caesar says he is one of around 200 Russian citizens currently fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, against their own country’s armies. CNN has not been able independently to confirm this number.

    In Caesar’s view, Moscow’s forces are not true Russians.

    “Yes, I kill my countrymen, but they have become criminals,” he explains. “They came to a foreign land to rob and kill and destroy. They kill civilians, children and women.”

    “I have to confront this,” he added.

    Caesar is a self-confessed opponent of what he says is a “tyrannical regime” headed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, not just in Ukraine but also inside his own country. And in his confrontation of the war, he has had to shoot at least 15 Russian soldiers on the battlefield, he claims.

    They are lives he did not pity and killings he does not regret, he says.

    “I am fighting a noble fight and I am doing my military and Christian duty; I am defending the Ukrainian people,” Caesar says. “And when Ukraine is free, I will carry my sword to Russia to free it from tyranny.”

    The Orthodox monastery in Dolyna is one of many buildings damaged by shelling.

    Some signs of the  monastery's former occupants can still be found among the rubble.

    Caesar’s ideological drive is not the only reason some Russians have chosen to side with Ukrainians on the battlefield. For many the motivation lies closer to the heart.

    “Silent,” the call-sign of another Russian soldier whose full name CNN is not disclosing for his safety, was visiting Ukraine when Russian missiles and artillery shells started landing in its towns and cities on February 24.

    “I came to Ukraine at the beginning of February to visit my relatives. I stayed here and war started,” Silent says.

    He says he joined the Ukrainian military shortly after he saw the atrocities perpetrated by Russian soldiers in the suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka, just outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Evidence of mass graves and civilian executions in those areas emerged following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kyiv region in early April.

    Russia has previously denied allegations of war crimes and claimed its forces do not target civilians, despite extensive evidence gathered by international human rights experts, criminal investigators and international media in multiple locations.

    “I was just outside Kyiv, not far from those places, and when they were kicked out of that territory, we went there to help people and saw what they had done,” Silent says. “Dead bodies, children, women, executions … When you see it in person … of course everything inside turned upside down.”

    He adds: “I decided to stay here until the end and join the legion.”

    Silent says his best friend has recently been forcibly mobilized into Russia’s army back home. Silent says they’ve discussed the terrifying fact that it’s conceivable they could end up on opposite sides on a Ukrainian battlefield.

    “It’s weird that that could happen – especially as he wants to leave Russia and wants to come to fight with me against Putin’s army in Ukraine. We’re trying to get him out but he’s being held by the Russian army,” says Silent.

    His family, like many in Russia and Ukraine, has roots in both countries. His wife and two children are now living with him in Ukraine but other relatives remain in Russia. Silent says that although they have stayed behind, they see through Putin’s propaganda on the war, still described as a “special military operation” by the Kremlin.

    “They understand what is going on: Russia invaded Ukraine,” he says, adding that his relatives were not angry with him. “They know my character, that if I have made a decision, I will act until the end.

    “They told me to stay safe.”

    Another soldier, who goes by the call-sign “Vinnie,” insists on covering his face with a balaclava, fearing that the Kremlin’s long arm might try to reach him in Ukraine.

    “My family is not here with me right now,” he explains. He says he is fighting for them and for their future, but still fears what Moscow’s security apparatus might do to them.

    “My children, my wife, who I love very much, they’re my everything, my whole life,” he says, with a sparkle in his eyes and a smile that can be detected through the cloth covering his face.

    “If I show my face … I worry about them, because there’ll be no one to protect them,” he adds.

    It’s one of the added risks for Russian citizens risking their lives for Ukraine, but not the only one. Russian soldiers fighting for Ukraine could face tougher consequences than their Ukrainian counterparts if they’re captured by the enemy.

    Last month, a soldier who deserted the Russian mercenary group Wagner and crossed onto the Ukrainian side, Yevgeny Nuzhin, was brutally murdered with a sledgehammer after he went back to Russia.

    His execution was applauded by the head of the group, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. Without directly acknowledging that Wagner fighters had carried out the murder, Prigozhin said: “Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed them consciously. He was not taken prisoner, nor did he surrender. Rather, he planned his escape. Nuzhin is a traitor.”

    This kind of example is why Vinnie is certain of what will await him should he be captured.

    “There won’t be an exchange for sure. It will be the end, 100%,” he says. “It will just be more painful.”

    The monastery and the village of Dolyna were the site of heavy battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with both sides using the area as a base.

    But pain and death are not a part of this unit’s lexicon, even as they face overwhelming odds in Bakhmut.

    Russia has been trying to capture the town for months and has thrown large numbers of men at Ukrainian defenses in an attempt to break them. But they haven’t broken Vinnie.

    “I am defending the country, I am defending homes, women, children, people who cannot defend themselves,” he says. “My conscience is absolutely clear.”

    Caesar, standing amid the remains of the Orthodox monastery, is equally defiant, saying not even the prospect of defeat will make him waver.

    “I will stay here while my heart will beats. I will fight to defend Ukraine,” he says.

    “And when we have defended Ukraine I will liberate my country.”

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    December 5, 2022
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