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Tag: Argentina

  • Ronaldo set to avoid World Cup ban as FIFA confirms draw shake-up

    Cristiano Ronaldo will likely avoid missing any Portugal matches at the men’s World Cup, despite receiving a red card in a qualifier.

    Ronaldo swung an arm and struck Ireland defender Dara O’Shea with an elbow during Portugal’s 2-0 loss in Dublin earlier this month.

    FIFA published a disciplinary verdict that imposed a three-match ban, judging Ronaldo’s action to be an example of “violent conduct”.

    But two of those matches are deferred for a one-year probation period.

    Ronaldo served a mandatory one-match ban when Portugal played its final qualifying match last week, a 9-1 win over Armenia that sealed its place at the World Cup in North America and Mexico.

    FIFA cited its disciplinary rules that allowed for parts of a sanction to be probationary, though it was rare in cases of a three-match ban for two of them to be deferred.

    Draw change

    Meanwhile, FIFA announced the World Cup draw would reward the four highest-ranked teams: Spain, Argentina, France and England.

    They will be placed in separate sections of a new tennis-style seeded tournament bracket.

    Defending champion Argentina’s passage to the semifinals appears easier. (Getty Images/Soccrates: Eric Verhoeven)

    The draw procedure means the top four teams in the latest rankings will — if they finish top of their respective round-robin groups — avoid each other until the semifinals of the June 11-July 19 tournament.

    The rule aims to maintain competitive balance in the expanded 48-team format.

    At previous World Cups, the path for teams into and through the knockout phase was decided by the group in which they were drawn.

    FIFA also revealed the four pots for the final draw, which takes place on December 6 AEDT in Washington.

    The Socceroos will be drawn from pot two.

    They are the lowest-ranked team in their 12-team pot, which also includes their continental rival Japan and world number 10 Croatia.

    Forty-two teams have already qualified for the World Cup.

    The other six entries will be decided in March when European and global play-off brackets are scheduled.

    Those teams all will come out of the draw pot of lowest-ranked teams.

    AP/Reuters

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  • U.S. to Cut Tariffs on Bananas, Coffee and Other Goods From Four Countries

    The U.S. plans to eliminate tariffs on bananas, coffee, beef and certain apparel and textile products under framework agreements with four Latin American nations, a senior administration official told reporters Thursday.

    The expected move—which would apply to some goods from Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala—is part of a shift from the Trump administration to water down some of its so-called reciprocal tariffs in the midst of rising prices for consumers, as well as legal uncertainty after a Supreme Court hearing this month.

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    Gavin Bade

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  • Trump administration announces trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador

    Washington — The Trump administration has reached frameworks for reciprocal trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador, the White House announced Thursday, although details of the frameworks are still emerging. 

    The tariff rate for most goods from Guatemala, El Salvador and Argentina will continue to be 10%, while Ecuador will remain at 15%, senior administration officials told reporters on a briefing call. But there will be tariff relief on a number of items, particularly those that can’t be grown in the U.S. Senior administration officials didn’t list those items, nor do the joint statements about the frameworks released by the White House, but one senior administration official anticipated that coffee and bananas from Ecuador, for instance, would see tariff relief. 

    “The United States commits to remove its reciprocal tariffs on certain qualifying exports from Ecuador that cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States in sufficient quantities,” the framework joint statement for Ecuador released by the White House says.   

    Senior administration officials couldn’t provide details on how the trade agreements would affect the cost of goods like coffee, cocoa or bananas, which the U.S. imports from Central and South American nations, although one senior administration official said it would likely have “positive” effects. 

    Those specific commodities are important because “we don’t make those in the United States,” the official said. 

    “Our expectation is that there will be some positive effects for prices for things like coffee, cocoa, bananas,” the official said. 

    The White House said the administration will work to finalize the agreements in the coming weeks. 

    Senior administration officials said the agreement frameworks are largely focused on allowing those foreign markets to accept more U.S. goods. Generally, the agreements also aim to open up markets to import U.S. agricultural products and to prohibit imposing digital services taxes on U.S. companies. 

    The U.S. has reached trade deals of some nature with the European Union, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea and the United Kingdom, among other countries.

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  • Argentina Has the World’s Weirdest Tax. Can Milei Scrap it?

    Argentina’s export tax hurts its critical agricultural industry. President Javier Milei has yet to follow through on a promise to end it.

    Greg Ip

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  • Years after Argentina shut a notorious zoo, the stranded animals are finally being rescued

    LUJAN, Argentina (AP) — Lions, tigers and bears that managed to survive in substandard conditions at a now-shuttered zoo on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Argentina, paced weakly in their claustrophobic cages on Thursday, waiting their turn to receive urgent veterinary care for the first time in years.

    The 62 big cats and two brown bears were being evaluated and treated before their eventual transfer to vast wildlife sanctuaries abroad — one of the largest and most challenging yet after a recent arrangement between Argentina and an international animal welfare organization.

    Argentine authorities in 2020 shut down the Lujan Zoo — famous for letting visitors handle and pose for pictures with tigers and lions — over mounting safety concerns.

    But the plight of the captive cats there only worsened. For the past five years, the animals were sustained by little more than a few loyal zookeepers who, despite having lost their jobs at Lujan, took it upon themselves to feed and care for the stranded lions and tigers left behind.

    Most didn’t make it.

    When Four Paws, an international animal welfare organization, first visited the zoo in 2023, caretakers counted 112 lions and tigers — already down from the more than 200 big cats believed to have been housed in the zoo at the time of its closure.

    Two years on, almost half of the animals have succumbed to illnesses from poor nutrition, wounds from fights with animals they’d never encounter in the wild, infections from lack of medical attention and organ failure from the stress of living in such cramped conditions.

    “It was really shocking,” said the organization’s chief program officer, Luciana D’Abramo, pointing to a 3-meter by 3-meter cage crammed with seven female lions. “Overcrowded is an understatement.”

    Next-door, two Asian tigers shared a tiny cage with two African lions — a “social composition that would never be found in nature,” D’Abramo said. “There’s a lot of hostility, fighting.”

    A single lion typically gets 10,000 square meters to itself at Four Paws’ sanctuaries around the world.

    After striking an agreement with Argentina’s government earlier this year, Four Paws took over responsibility for the surviving wild animals in Lujan last month.

    The memorandum of understanding involved Argentina committing to end the sale and private ownership of exotic felines in the large South American country, where enforcement efforts often run aground across 23 provinces that have their own rules and regulations.

    Although the Vienna-based organization has previously evacuated starving tigers from Syria’s civil war, abandoned bears and hyenas from the war-ravaged Iraqi city of Mosul and neglected lion cubs from the besieged Gaza Strip, it has never rescued such a large number of big cats before.

    “Here, the number of animals and the conditions where they are kept make this a much bigger challenge,” said Dr. Amir Khalil, the veterinarian leading the group’s emergency mission. “This is one of our biggest missions … not only in Argentina or Latin America, but worldwide.”

    On Thursday, veterinarians and experts from the organization were scrambling around the derelict zoo to assess the animals one by one. Most had not been vaccinated, sterilized or microchipped for identification.

    The team whisked sedated lions and tigers onto operating tables, dispensing nutrients, antibiotics and doses of pain medication via IV drips.

    The quick checkups frequently transformed into emergency surgeries. One tiger was treated for a bleeding gash in its tail last week, another for a vaginal tumor on Thursday. Several tigers and lions needed root canals to repair infected molars that had been broken on the steel cage bars.

    Others received treatment for claws that had grown inward from walking too much on unnatural, plank flooring in the spartan enclosures.

    After evaluating each animal in the coming weeks, Four Paws will arrange for their transfer to more expansive, natural homes around the world.

    Some Argentine zookeepers who spent decades feeding and caring for the big cats say they’re happy to see Four Paws improving the conditions. But there was also a sense of nostalgia for how things were.

    “It used to be a very popular place … I’ve seen people cry because they could touch a lion or feed a tiger with a bottle,” said Alberto Díaz, who spent 27 years working with the wild cats at the Lujan Zoo, overseeing hands-on experiences that catered to countless tourists.

    “Time changes, laws change, and you have to adapt or get left behind.”

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  • Iowa soybean farmers lost China as a buyer. Cattle was their backup plan — then Trump announced plans to import more beef

    After several years of losing money on cattle, Burleen and Pete Wobeter thought this would finally be the year things turned around. Their Iowa farm also grows corn and soybeans — crops that have been hit hard by the trade war with China — but cattle had been a bright spot so far in 2025. 

    “This year, it is the one thing that is going to make any money for us,” Burleen said.

    That’s why they were astounded when President Trump announced he wanted to quadruple beef imports from Argentina, claiming it would “bring our beef prices down” and help “a very good ally.”

    His words sent wholesale cattle prices plummeting.

    “I thought the whole point of tariffs was to bring production back home, and now he is trying to do something to destroy that production,” Burleen said, adding, ” It feels like being a pawn in a game we’re not going to win.”

    “We’re being used and abused as producers,” Pete added.

    For farmers across the U.S., this harvest season brought a new kind of uncertainty. China, once the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, cut off purchases after tariffs escalated, leaving producers with full silos and falling prices.

    The Wobeters were hoping stronger cattle prices could make up for those losses.

    But while cattle ranchers are earning less, shoppers aren’t seeing any savings. Ground beef is up nearly 13% and steak is up 16% over the past year, according to federal data. Economists say the spike is tied to drought, high feed costs and a shrinking U.S. cattle herd — now at its lowest level in decades.

    Bryan Whaley, CEO of the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association, said more imports from Argentina won’t fix that.

    “You have to look at the total supply chain,” Whaley said. “It really only is gonna be about 2.5% of our total beef supply. So it’s really not going to make a substantial difference.”

    To help farmers and ranchers weather the downturn, the Trump administration announced last week it would release about $3 billion in assistance by tapping a fund used in Mr. Trump’s first term to aid farmers, officials told CBS News.

    The Trump administration has discussed offering upward of $10 billion in relief to farmers, CBS News reported earlier this month. That potential aid package is on the back burner due to the shutdown, and is separate from the $3 billion in new assistance, a senior administration official said.

    At the same time, the administration recently hinted that new trade agreements could also help turn things around for soybean farmers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” that new deals, including one with China, would be positive for U.S. agriculture.

    “Soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years,” he said.

    During his Asia trip, Mr. Trump said he expected the new trade deal with China to be finalized in the coming days.

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  • Argentina’s Slums Abandoned Peronism—and Handed Milei the Win

    BUENOS AIRES—For decades, the poor suburbs that ring Argentina’s capital Buenos Aires powered the leftist Peronist movement. On Sunday, they made a historic shift against Peronism that propelled President Javier Milei to a surprise victory in midterm congressional elections.

    The Argentine poor whom Eva Perón lionized as the country’s heart and soul largely stayed home in a stinging rebuke to the Peronist movement that has dominated politics here for 80 years. At the same time, middle-class voters mobilized to rescue Milei and his free-market revolt.

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    Santiago Pérez

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  • Iowa farmers who lost soybean sales to China now fear new hit to cattle

    After several years of losing money on cattle, Burleen and Pete Wobeter thought this would finally be the year things turned around. Their Iowa farm also grows corn and soybeans — crops that have been hit hard by the trade war with China — but cattle had been a bright spot so far in 2025. As Lana Zak reports, their backup plan was threatened when President Trump announced plans to increase beef imports from Argentina.

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  • Javier Milei’s libertarian policies win shock election

    This week, editors Peter SudermanNick Gillespie, and Matt Welch are joined by associate editor Liz Wolfe to discuss Argentine President Javier Milei’s strong midterm showing and what it suggests about the durability of his libertarian reform agenda. They debate whether the results vindicate Trump’s earlier currency-swap bailout, how Milei’s spending-cut program is playing out, and what lessons his success may hold for other governments confronting inflation.

    The editors then turn to Washington, where Trump’s decision to impose new tariffs on Canadian goods followed an Ontario ad featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. They also discuss the continued U.S. bombings in Venezuela, and the administration’s alleged involvement in the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, along with the symbolism of replacing the East Wing with a ballroom. The panel considers the rise of socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City and why his ascension could have national significance. Finally, a listener asks if protests like the recent “No Kings” rallies accomplish anything.

     

    0:00–Milei’s party wins landslide election in Argentina

    16:08–Trump escalates trade war with Canada over advertisement

    23:51–Are we headed into an unauthorized war with Venezuela?

    34:40–The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger

    39:47–Listener question on the power of protest

    53:57–What does the rise of Zohran Mamdani mean for the country?

    61:58–Weekly cultural recommendations

     

    Mentioned in This Podcast

    Javier Milei Wins Argentina’s Midterm Election, Gaining More Power To Push Reforms,” by César Báez

    The Government Shutdown Isn’t Stopping Trump From Amassing ‘Emergency’ Powers,” by Katherine Mangu-WardThe Constitution Does Not Allow the President To Unilaterally Blow Suspected Drug Smugglers to Smithereens,” by Rand PaulTrump Dares Congress To Take Its War Powers Seriously in Venezuela,” by Matthew PettiTrump Allegedly Misidentified a Colombian Fisherman as a Venezuelan ‘Narcoterrorist,’” by Jacob SullumTrump Campaigned on Free Speech. That Isn’t How He’s Governed.” By John StosselAbolish the FCC,” by Ilya SominThe FCC’s Paramount/Skydance Decision Aims To Reshape Broadcast Journalism by Bureaucratic Fiat,” by Jacob SullumZohran Mamdani’s Socialist Housing Plan Could Crash New York’s Rickety Rental Market,” by Howard HusockMamdani’s Fare-Free Buses Wouldn’t Be NYC’s First Wasteful Public Transit Boondoggle,” by Emma CampThe Socialist Transit Plan That Could Break NYC,” by Kennedy and Natalie DowzickyBrandon Johnson’s Chicago Is a Preview of Zohran Mamdani’s New York,” by Christian BritschgiIs Everyone Who Opposes a New School Zoning Plan in Brooklyn Racist?” By Matt Welch


    Peter Suderman

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  • Argentina’s Bonds, Stocks, Currency Rally After Milei Victory

    Argentina’s stocks, bonds and currency surged Monday after the country’s midterm elections delivered a surprising mandate for President Javier Milei to press ahead with his free-market economic overhauls.

    The Argentine peso rose around 9% against the U.S. dollar in midmorning trading, the most in more than two decades. A U.S. dollar-denominated government bond maturing in 2046 rose by 11 cents to trade at 66 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb data. Argentina’s benchmark stock index, the Merval, was up 17% as bank stocks soared.

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    Chelsey Dulaney

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  • Javier Milei wins Argentina’s midterm election, gaining more power to push reforms

    The results of Argentina’s midterm elections Sunday were not widely expected. Pre-election polls had predicted a tie nationwide. Instead there was a clear win for President Javier Milei’s coalition, La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), which secured 41 percent of the national vote. The Peronist opposition followed with 32 percent, while regional parties divided the remainder. Voter turnout was 68 percent, below typical midterm participation levels.

    The vote consolidated Argentina’s increasingly polarized landscape, with centrist and third-party options virtually disappearing between Milei’s libertarian-leaning movement and the Peronist opposition. Beginning December 10, Freedom Advances will increase its congressional seats from 37 to 101 deputies and from 6 to 20 senators, surpassing the one-third threshold Milei had set as his minimum goal for victory. “We will have, without a doubt, the most reformist Congress in Argentine history,” Milei said after the results were announced.

    With a stronger representation in Congress, Milei can now block opposition bills that would undermine his veto power and threaten his fiscal austerity program. Although he did not win an outright majority, the results significantly enhance his bargaining power. Milei plans to pursue labor and tax reforms in the coming legislature and will need support from centrist lawmakers and regional blocs to pass them.

    The turnaround in Buenos Aires Province, which represents nearly 40 percent of Argentina’s electorate, was decisive. Milei’s coalition got a narrow victory in the region after suffering a 14-point defeat there in the provincial elections held last month, a vote that Peronist Gov. Axel Kicillof chose to schedule separately from the national contest to boost his own standing ahead of the 2027 presidential race. That early timing reshaped the incentive structure of his party’s local apparatus. Once many provincial officials had already secured their positions in September, the networks that typically drive voter mobilization had little motivation to replicate their efforts in October. The Peronists blame Kiciloff for the underperformance.

    The financial markets reacted favorably to Milei’s victory. Argentina’s country risk index and the dollar exchange rate both fell sharply, while the stocks of Argentine companies listed in New York rose. The outcome eased investor concerns about a possible Peronist resurgence. President Donald Trump, who earlier this month tied a $20 billion financial rescue package for Argentina to Milei’s success, congratulated him on Truth Social, praising Milei as a strong ally and celebrating what he called a “big win” for Argentina.

    But the outcome is not being read in Argentina as a full endorsement for Milei’s politics. The past month has been a political crisis for Milei, and some cabinet changes are already underway. Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein and Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona submitted their resignations; Security Minister Patricia Bullrich and Defense Minister Luis Petri were both elected to Congress.

    The reshuffle reflects an internal struggle between Milei’s closest confidants: his behind-the-scenes adviser, Santiago Caputo, and his sister and presidential secretary, Karina Milei. Karina has acted as a bridge to the establishment figures within the administration, while Caputo represents the more radical wing of Milei’s libertarian base. A poor electoral result would have strengthened Caputo’s influence, given Milei’s weakened position in recent weeks. The president’s following appointments will likely settle this internal tension in light of the decisive victory he has just secured.

    Volatility is a constant in Argentina. The country’s direction now depends on whether Milei can push his central campaign promises, including dollarization, into policy before the 2027 election, when he will be eligible to seek another term.

    César Báez

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  • Five Takeaways From Milei’s Surprising Victory in Argentina’s Election

    BUENOS AIRES—The surprisingly decisive victory of Argentina’s President Javier Milei in midterm elections Sunday lays the ground for a $40 billion U.S. bailout and gives fresh momentum to one of the most radical free-market overhauls in the nation’s history.

    In an election widely seen as a referendum on Milei’s past two years in office, his Freedom Advances party won some 41% of the national vote, more than doubling its representation in Congress. The leftist Peronist opposition, a political force for much of the past 80 years, got just 32%.

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    Samantha Pearson

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  • Milei Wins Mandate for Free-Market Revolution in Argentina’s Election

    BUENOS AIRES—President Javier Milei scored a decisive political win Sunday, strengthening his position in Argentina’s Congress and securing a lifeline for his audacious free-market revolution backed by President Trump.

    With nearly 99% of votes counted, Milei’s Freedom Advances party won almost 41% of the national vote, more than doubling its representation in Congress. That means his party and allies secured at least one-third of the seats in both chambers—the critical threshold that allows Milei to preserve his veto power and defend his sweeping decrees.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

    [ad_2] Samantha Pearson
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  • Milei’s party on track to win Argentina election in big comeback | Fortune

    President Javier Milei’s party is on track to finish first in Argentina’s midterm vote in early counting, putting the libertarian leader on the brink of a major comeback from a September local election defeat that prompted a market selloff and a US financial lifeline.

    Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, received 41% of votes with 92% of ballots counted, according to data published by Interior Minister Guillermo Francos on Sunday. The main chapter of the rival Peronist party had 24.5% of votes, a much lower level than it garnered in a runaway victory over Milei in a Buenos Aires province vote last month. Milei’s party was winning in most of Argentina’s provinces when official data first published.

    Francos said Milei’s party had won 64 seats of the 127 seats up for election in the lower house of Congress.

    The midterm, in which half of lower house seats and a third of the Senate were up for election, is a crucial referendum on Milei and the aggressive austerity policies he has unleashed as president. The September result sparked a selloff of the peso amid investor fears over Milei’s standing with voters, eventually leading the Trump administration to intervene in an effort to support both the peso and the government.

    Markets will likely rally Monday as election uncertainty fades and Milei’s party, which currently holds only about 15% of seats, gains a stronger congressional foothold to pass key economic reforms. 

    His candidates stand to approach or even surpass one-third of the seats in the lower house, a key benchmark that would allow him to protect vetoes, which opposition lawmakers have succeeded in overturning in recent months.

    The win would also vindicate the extraordinary support US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Argentina. Just before the election, the US signed a $20 billion currency swap line agreement with Argentina to shore up the beleaguered peso, which is down more than 30% so far this year. 

    Argentina bonds, which gained the most in emerging markets last year, have also been throttled amid the September election loss and US support package.

    The US also directly purchased pesos in the run-up to the vote, and is coordinating additional financial support from Wall Street banks for Milei’s administration. President Donald Trump met Milei at the White House two weeks ago, and the Argentine has emerged as one of the US leader’s most ardent supporters abroad.

    The backing from Washington came on top of Argentina’s $20 billion program with the International Monetary Fund that began in April.

    A victory could also help turn the page politically for Milei. The president and his party have faced three corruption scandals this year, while Argentina’s slowing economy and frustration with high unemployment rates helped push Milei’s approval to the lowest level of his term ahead of the vote.

    Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg

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  • Milei’s Party Wins Victory in Argentina Midterm Vote, Media Reports

    BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -The party of Argentina’s President Javier Milei’s has achieved a victory in Sunday’s midterm election, local media reported, virtually tying with the Peronist opposition in the key Buenos Aires province.

    Analysts said ahead of the election that winning more than 35% of the total vote would be positive for Milei’s administration, as that would likely give his party and its allies enough seats in the legislature to prevent opponents from overriding presidential vetoes.

    (Reporting by Nicolas Misculin; Editing by Christian Plumb)

    Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.

    Reuters

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  • U.S. farmers say they’re disappointed with Trump’s plan to import beef from Argentina

    President Trump’s push to import beef from Argentina, in an effort to lower costs, has created a growing beef in the heartland. Lana Zak reports.

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  • Milei’s Overhaul of Argentina Has Another Problem: He Isn’t Great at Politics

    Argentine President Javier Milei’s problem heading into midterm elections Sunday isn’t just the pain caused by his radical free-market experiment. It is that, for all the force of his personality, he hasn’t mastered the art of politics.

    Milei has alienated so many important allies that, even though his Freedom Advances party is set to double its share of congressional seats, he might not win a big-enough coalition to govern, protect his veto or avoid impeachment.

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    Ryan Dubé

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  • Argentina’s Farmers Give Milei Vote of Confidence Before Midterms

    BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentine farmers are renewing their vote of confidence in President Javier Milei ahead of Sunday’s midterm elections, a crucial sector that the government relies on to generate much-needed foreign currency.

    Support from farmers in Argentina, a leading global food exporter, will be crucial for the radical libertarian president, who hopes to substantially increase his minority representation in Congress.

    Since taking office almost two years ago, Milei has enjoyed broad support from the agriculture sector, which shares his vision of unrestricted and deregulated markets.

    Milei’s government has moved in the direction of lowering unpopular export taxes. In July, the government reduced the export tax on soybeans and corn, the country’s two main crops, by 20%. Although the taxes remain high, 26% and 9.5% respectively, Milei has promised to eliminate them completely.

    “We need to give this government a vote of confidence,” Martín Doffo, a 51-year-old farmer from the town of 25 de Mayo, in the province of Buenos Aires, told Reuters. “He wants to take the necessary path: tax reduction, lowering export taxes, and labor reform, all things we’ve been needing.”

    The main opposition force is the Peronist party led by former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who during her presidency clashed with the agriculture sector over protectionist export quotas and price controls.

    “There are many producers who don’t want Kirchnerism to return,” said Horacio Deciancio, a 70-year-old cattle rancher from San Vicente, a rural town near Buenos Aires. He said that he is betting on Milei’s “market-based economic policies, where supply and demand can open markets to the world.”

    Farmers whom Reuters spoke to also said they support labor reforms to increase the formal workforce that Milei has said he would push through the next Congress. They say that under the current system, there is too much bureaucracy involved in hiring workers.

    Half of Argentina’s lower Chamber of Deputies, or 127 seats, as well as a third of the Senate, or 24 seats, are up for election on October 26.

    The Peronist opposition movement currently holds the largest minority in both houses and has about half of its seats in the lower house up for reelection. Milei’s relatively new party, La Libertad Avanza, has only 37 deputies and six senators.

    Political experts say that if Milei’s party clinches more than 35% of the vote, that would be seen as a positive sign of growing support.

    (Report by Maximilian Heath; Writing by Leila Miller Editing by Marguerita Choy)

    Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.

    Reuters

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  • Has Argentina Really Changed? Soon, We Will Find Out

    BUENOS AIRES—The adage “The most dangerous words in investing on Wall Street are ‘It’s different this time’” could have been coined to describe Argentina. For 50 years, it repeatedly convinced international lenders it had changed its ways, only to slide back into default, instability and inflation.

    This Sunday, Argentines will demonstrate whether this time really is different. Midterm elections will decide whether President Javier Milei’s radical economic reform will continue.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

    [ad_2] Greg Ip
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  • Argentina Braces for Market Turbulence as Midterm Elections Loom

    By Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones

    NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Investors are bracing for a renewed round of Argentine currency and bond market swings, as this Sunday’s midterm elections mark a defining moment for President Javier Milei’s economic reform efforts.

    Milei is not on the ballot himself but his La Libertad Avanza party is, making the vote a key test for his right-wing stabilization strategy and far-reaching austerity plan, which endeared him to U.S. President Donald Trump and helped to secure a $20 billion U.S. swap line.

    Even so, it’s been far from a smooth ride in the markets in recent weeks, and with most polls showing a tight race, investors see the potential for gyrations either way once the election results are in.

    The peso stumbled to a record low against the dollar this week and investors expect further weakness ahead. Argentina’s heavily traded international bonds, star performers across emerging markets last year, have sunk into losses in 2025.

    As investors look ahead to Sunday’s election, Trump has added to the pressure by threatening that he won’t waste more time on Argentina if Milei loses. 

    “It just demonstrates the transactional nature of the relationship with the United States these days,” said Carl Ross, partner and sovereign credit analyst at asset manager GMO, which is overweight Argentina’s international dollar bonds. “It makes it more difficult to play it, because it becomes even more of a key-man risk, and it becomes even more binary of an outcome.”

    MILEI WIN COULD TRIGGER RALLY 

    In the midterm vote, half of Argentina’s lower Chamber of Deputies as well as a third of the Senate are up for grabs. Milei’s party will need about one-third of the votes in each house to thwart future attempts to override his spending vetoes.

    The election math is complex, though anything in the region of 35% or above is seen as a success for Milei, using as a barometer the 30% he secured in the first round of the 2023 presidential election.

    “If Milei doesn’t perform well, I think we get a (market) correction because my view is that this U.S. mini-bailout will not be available in such size,” said Diliana Deltcheva, head of emerging market debt at Robeco, who calls the election a coin toss.

    “I can see another three to five points of upside (in bonds) if Milei does well, but the market has already rallied back to the highs of the year so the downside is pretty large,” she said, adding that the firm could add to its current market-weight holdings if bonds sold off.

    Local brokerage Max Capital said sovereign dollar bonds are pricing a win from left-leaning opposition Peronists by about 4 percentage points in Sunday’s vote. A better result than that for Milei’s party could see upside of about 15% in the bonds, they said.

    Aside from the U.S. swap line, the Trump administration is negotiating with U.S. banks the formation of a $20 billion fund to purchase Argentine sovereign debt, U.S. officials have said.

    U.S. SUPPORT IS CONDITIONAL

    But with U.S. support conditional on a continuation of Milei’s previous policies, his party’s election results will be closely scrutinized.

    JPMorgan’s baseline sees Milei’s bloc on track to secure enough seats to protect his veto power but warned that such a result alone would not deliver reforms or bring down risk premiums.

    “In this scenario U.S. support is poised to intensify, providing a tailwind for the administration. Political risk premium, which has weighed heavily on markets, would likely recede,” JPMorgan analysts said.

    Any ballot underperformance by Milei’s party could also be seen as an early gauge of his longer-term political standing, including his prospects for retaining power in the 2027 general election, said Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for emerging markets in the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. 

    “Beyond the election, a sustained rally will require a credible strategy to rebuild international reserves, likely involving a significant devaluation,” Czerwonko said.

    (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York and Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones in London; Editing by Christian Plumb and Edmund Klamann)

    Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.

    Reuters

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