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  • Tropical Storm Warnings issued as Hurricane Erin moves closer to U.S.

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    Hurricane Erin is still a strong hurricane and is expected to grow even larger, expanding its wind field. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada this week.

    Erin formed on Aug. 11 and strengthened into a hurricane on Aug. 15. Just one day later, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Aug. 16. It brushed past the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous surf, but it has avoided any direct impacts to land.


    What You Need To Know

    • Erin is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds
    • It will bring life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents to the East Coast
    • Erin will remain a hurricane through late week


    Erin is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 100 mph. It’s moving steadily northwest at 13 mph across the western Atlantic. 

    During the next few days, Erin is forecast to take a turn to the north, and eventually the northeast. It’s expected to stay offshore of the U.S. East Coast, moving in between Bermuda and the U.S. 

    Erin is expected to remain a hurricane through late week. Cooler waters and increasing wind shear will weaken this storm by the weekend.


    The cone of uncertainty displays where the center of a storm could be located. It does not predict which areas may feel the storm’s impact. Anyone outside but near the cone should be on alert and make storm preparations.

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

    • Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for: 

    • Bermuda
    • North of Duck, N.C. to Cape Charles Light to Chincoteague, Va.

    Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

    The water could reach up to 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C., and 1 to 3 feet southward to parts of South Carolina, and northward to the Delmarva Peninsula.

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.


    The primary impacts across these areas will occur late tonight into Thursday as Erin passes closest offshore, especially during high tide.

    While the strongest winds will stay over the Atlantic, it’s likely that some strong wind gusts will impact the Outer Banks, and possibly the Canadian Maritimes.

    We will continue to bring you the latest updates for Erin and the rest of the tropics.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Tropical Storm Warnings issued as Hurricane Erin moves closer to U.S.

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    Hurricane Erin is still a strong hurricane and is expected to grow even larger, expanding its wind field. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada this week.

    Erin formed on Aug. 11 and strengthened into a hurricane on Aug. 15. Just one day later, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Aug. 16. It brushed past the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous surf, but it has avoided any direct impacts to land.


    What You Need To Know

    • Erin is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds
    • It will bring life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents to the East Coast
    • Erin will remain a hurricane through late week


    Erin is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 100 mph. It’s moving steadily northwest at 13 mph across the western Atlantic. 

    During the next few days, Erin is forecast to take a turn to the north, and eventually the northeast. It’s expected to stay offshore of the U.S. East Coast, moving in between Bermuda and the U.S. 

    Erin is expected to remain a hurricane through late week. Cooler waters and increasing wind shear will weaken this storm by the weekend.


    The cone of uncertainty displays where the center of a storm could be located. It does not predict which areas may feel the storm’s impact. Anyone outside but near the cone should be on alert and make storm preparations.

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

    • Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for: 

    • Bermuda
    • North of Duck, N.C. to Cape Charles Light to Chincoteague, Va.

    Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

    The water could reach up to 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C., and 1 to 3 feet southward to parts of South Carolina, and northward to the Delmarva Peninsula.

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.


    The primary impacts across these areas will occur late tonight into Thursday as Erin passes closest offshore, especially during high tide.

    While the strongest winds will stay over the Atlantic, it’s likely that some strong wind gusts will impact the Outer Banks, and possibly the Canadian Maritimes.

    We will continue to bring you the latest updates for Erin and the rest of the tropics.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Hurricane Erin bring impacts to the East Coast

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    Hurricane Erin will be moving through the western Atlantic this week, causing life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal storm surge along the East Coast. Watch live cameras from the beaches as Erin moves offshore.

    South Carolina

     

     





    North Carolina

     

     


     

     

     

     

     




    Delaware


    Maryland



    New Jersey





     

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Hurricane Erin bring impacts to the East Coast

    [ad_1]

    Hurricane Erin will be moving through the western Atlantic this week, causing life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal storm surge along the East Coast. Watch live cameras from the beaches as Erin moves offshore.

    South Carolina

     

     





    North Carolina

     

     


     

     

     

     

     




    Delaware


    Maryland



    New Jersey





     

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • WATCH: Hurricane Hunters fly into Category 5 Hurricane Erin

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    Erin will bring life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents to the East Coast.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • 2025 Atlantic hurricane season so far

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    The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is underway. NOAA and Colorado State University are both forecasting above normal activity this year as we enter the busiest months of the season.

    Hurricane season began on June 1 and will go through Nov. 30. Here are the tropical tracks so far from this season. 


    Here is the list of names being used in 2025. Excluding any names that get retired, will be re-used in 2031.


    You can learn more about 2025’s list of names here.

    Andrea

    Tropical Storm Andrea formed on Tuesday, June 24, becoming the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It dissipated 12 hours later.

    Andrea formed and dissipated on the same day without impacting any land. Max winds only reached 40 mph before moving over the colder waters of the north Atlantic.

    Barry

    Barry was the second named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and it was a short-lived tropical storm. 

    Tropical Storm Barry formed on the morning of June 29, over the Bay of Campeche. Maximum winds only reached 45 mph before Barry moved inland, dissipating across the mountains of northeastern Mexico.

    Barry caused flooding and damage in Quintana Roo, Mexico, where nearly 17 inches of rain fell. 

    Chantal

    Chantal began as Tropical Depression Three, forming off the coast of northeast Florida. It became Tropical Storm Chantal one day later, on July 5.

    It made landfall just one day after forming, moving inland near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, as a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph on July 6. Chantal was the first storm to make landfall in the U.S. during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

    Heavy rainfall and flash flooding were the biggest impacts from Chantal. Radar-estimated rainfall totals up 9 to 12 inches were recorded in parts of North Carolina between Raleigh and Greensboro, with significant flooding around Chapel Hill and nearby rivers.

    Dexter

    Dexter was the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed over the open Atlantic on Sunday, Aug. 3, and stayed away from land throughout its lifespan. 

    It dissipated on Aug. 7.

    We’ll continue to update this story throughout the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with daily tropical updates


    More Storm Season Resources


    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • NOAA updates its Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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    The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most active period in the upcoming months, and NOAA has updated its annual hurricane season outlook. NOAA’s latest forecast is still calling for above normal activity this season.


    What You Need To Know

    • NOAA still predicts above normal activity this hurricane season
    • The forecast calls for 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes
    • So far, there have been four named storms in the Atlantic this season


    NOAA’s updated outlook predicts a 50% chance of an above normal season, a 35% chance of a near normal season and a 15% chance of a below normal season. 

    NOAA forecasts a likely range of 13 to 18 named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

    These are similar numbers to NOAA’s original outlook released in May, but they have been slightly reduced.

    Remember, predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is.

    NOAA researchers cite a handful of different factors for this year’s forecast, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, ENSO neutral conditions and an active West African Monsoon. “Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions.”

    The National Hurricane Center continues to urge advanced preparations for coastal communities before a storm hits.

    NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says, “No two storms are alike; every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.” 

    Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.

    So far, there have been four named storms this hurricane season.


    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • Dexter turns post-tropical in the northern Atlantic

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    Dexter stayed over the open Atlantic.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Colorado State University updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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    Researchers at Colorado State University updated their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday morning, and are still calling for above normal activity. The initial forecast released in early April also predicted above normal activity.


    What You Need To Know

    • Colorado State University is forecasting slightly above normal activity
    • The forecast calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes; slightly reduced numbers from initial forecasts
    • The next couple months are typically when the peak of tropical activity occurs


    The updated forecast calls for 16 named storms, including the 4 that have already formed. Of those 16 storms, 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 3 are expected to reach major hurricane strength. These are the same numbers from CSU’s last update back in July.

    This is a slight reduction from CSU’s original forecast released in April, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

    Despite the above-normal forecast, CSU notes lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Although sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic have warmed above normal over the past few weeks, there is some uncertainty.

    Researchers say, “the primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over the past several weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

    The ENSO phase is neutral right now, and strong trade winds over the central tropical Pacific for the next few weeks will likely reduce the potential for a transition to El Niño conditions compared to what was previously thought. The tropics are typically more active during El Niño years. 

    Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.


    The CSU forecast matches NOAA’s hurricane season forecast, which also calls for above normal activity. You can track the latest activity in the tropics here.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • Colorado State University updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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    Researchers at Colorado State University updated their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday morning, and are still calling for above normal activity. The initial forecast released in early April also predicted above normal activity.


    What You Need To Know

    • Colorado State University is forecasting slightly above normal activity
    • The forecast calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes; slightly reduced numbers from initial forecasts
    • The next couple months are typically when the peak of tropical activity occurs


    The updated forecast calls for 16 named storms, including the 4 that have already formed. Of those 16 storms, 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 3 are expected to reach major hurricane strength. These are the same numbers from CSU’s last update back in July.

    This is a slight reduction from CSU’s original forecast released in April, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

    Despite the above-normal forecast, CSU notes lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Although sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic have warmed above normal over the past few weeks, there is some uncertainty.

    Researchers say, “the primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over the past several weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

    The ENSO phase is neutral right now, and strong trade winds over the central tropical Pacific for the next few weeks will likely reduce the potential for a transition to El Niño conditions compared to what was previously thought. The tropics are typically more active during El Niño years. 

    Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.


    The CSU forecast matches NOAA’s hurricane season forecast, which also calls for above normal activity. You can track the latest activity in the tropics here.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • Chantal brought heavy rain and significant flooding to the Carolinas

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    Chantal has become post-tropical as continues to move through the Mid-Atlantic. It’s expected to dissipate later Monday with some additional rainfall and flooding potential across parts of eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania.


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina on July 6
    • It brought heavy rainfall and significant flooding to parts of North Carolina
    • It was the first storm to make landfall in the U.S. in 2025


    Chantal began as Tropical Depression Three, forming off the coast of northeast Florida. It became Tropical Storm Chantal one day later, on July 5.

    It made landfall just one day after forming, moving inland near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, as a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph on July 6. Chantal was the first storm to make landfall in the U.S. during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

    The highest winds reported were in Myrtle Beach at the Springmaid Pier, with gusts up to 56 mph. An EF0 tornado also touched down in Wilmington, N.C., causing minor home damage and extensive tree damage.

    Heavy rainfall and flash flooding were the biggest impacts from Chantal. Radar-estimated rainfall totals up 9 to 12 inches were recorded in parts of North Carolina between Raleigh and Greensboro, causing significant flooding around Chapel Hill and nearby rivers.

    Chapel Hill Fire Department said it performed roughly 50 rescues since Sunday morning. First responders also rescued people in Durham after the Eno River hit major flood stage. Flooding on the Haw River shut down I-85 and I-40 in Alamance County after Chantal moved through.


    There are no more watches and warnings in effect.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Barry made landfall as a tropical depression

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    Tropical Storm Barry formed on the morning of June 29 over the Bay of Campeche, becoming the second named storm of the 2025 hurricane season.


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche on the morning of June 29
    • Maximum winds reached 45 mph
    • Barry made landfall as a Tropical Depression across the mountains of northeastern Mexico


    Just like its predecessor, Tropical Storm Andrea, Barry formed and dissipated the same day. Maximum winds only reached 45 mph before Barry moved inland, dissipating across the mountains of northeastern Mexico.

    Barry caused flooding and damage in Quintana Roo, Mexico, where nearly 17 inches of rain fell. 

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

     

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Andrea was a short-lived tropical storm

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    Tropical Storm Andrea formed on Tuesday, June 24, becoming the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It dissipated 12 hours later.


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical Storm Andrea only lasted 12 hours
    • It was short-lived and weak
    • It didn’t impact any land


    Andrea formed and dissipated on the same day without impacting any land. Max winds only reached 40 mph before moving over the colder waters of the north Atlantic.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Google launches new AI-powered weather model to predict hurricanes

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    Google has introduced a new, experimental artificial intelligence (AI) weather model for predicting hurricanes. The new AI-based tropical cyclone model will be another tool for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike to predict the track and intensity of future storms this hurricane season.


    What You Need To Know

    • Google has launched an experimental AI-based weather model to predict tropical cyclones
    • The new model can predict a cyclone’s track, intensity, size and structure
    • Google is partnering with the National Hurricane Center to support forecasts and warnings


    Google’s new AI-powered tropical cyclone model is the latest addition to its WeatherNext model family, a suite of AI weather models from Google DeepMind and Google Research. According to Google, “this model can predict a cyclone’s formation, track, intensity, size and shape — generating 50 possible scenarios, up to 15 days ahead.”

    Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that are used to forecast hurricanes, like the GFS and Euro (ECMWF), are physics-based. Simply put, they combine current atmospheric weather conditions with a set of equations that govern our atmosphere, to predict future atmospheric conditions.

    Physics-based models have shown tremendous improvement in the past 50+ years, but there are still omissions, estimations, approximations and compromises in each step of creating the forecast, so it’s far from perfect.

    Google claims that its AI-powered model can overcome the trade-offs of physics-based models. “It’s trained to model two distinct types of data: a vast reanalysis dataset that reconstructs past weather over the entire Earth from millions of observations, and a specialized database containing key information about the track, intensity, size and wind radii of nearly 5,000 observed cyclones from the past 45 years.”


    Google’s internal testing of their model has shown its model’s predictions for track and intensity are as accurate as, and often more accurate than, current physics-based models. Using 2023 and 2024 as test years, Google’s model had a 5-day track prediction, on average, “140 km closer to the true cyclone location than ENS — the leading global physics-based ensemble model from ECMWF.”

    This year, forecasters from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be able to use predictions from Google’s experimental AI models, alongside the more traditions physics-based models to create forecasts. “We hope this data can help improve NHC forecasts and provide earlier and more accurate warnings for hazards linked to tropical cyclones.” 

    Despite the early hope and promise shown by new AI-powered weather models, it’s important to note that they’re still experimental and just one tool. These models are still under development, and you should always refer to local officials and the NHC for official watches, warnings and forecasts. 

    You can read Google’s full press release here, and check out Weather Lab, Google’s interactive site for sharing their AI weather models.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • Ask a meteorologist: What to expect this hurricane season?

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    The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and forecasters are expecting another active season. 

    Our Spectrum News Weather experts from around the country answered viewer questions about the upcoming season. Check out their responses.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • NHC updates cone of uncertainty and other parameters ahead of hurricane season

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    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has unveiled updates to the cone of uncertainty for the upcoming hurricane season, as well as refined other parameters. 


    What You Need To Know

    • Inland tropical watches and warnings will be shown on an experimental map with the cone, similar to 2024 experimental map
    • Potential Tropical Cyclones will be issued up to 72 hours out from a storm
    • A new rip current risk map will be provided by NHC during a tropical event


    Thanks to positive feedback from the 2024 hurricane season, the cone of uncertainty graphic will now display inland watches and warnings to better communicate the wind risk away from the coast. 

    The size of the track forecast cone will appear slightly smaller, about 3 to 5% in the Atlantic basin, compared to 2024. According to the NHC, “the cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone.”

    Here is a look at what the new experimental cone will look like.

    The traditional operational cone of uncertainty, without the inand watches/warnings, will continue to be distributed by the NHC. The new, experimental, graphic will be available on the National Hurricane Center website and usually update approximately 30 minutes after the advisory release.

    This experimental graphic will be released for both full and intermediate advisories. 

    Potential Tropical Cyclones

    Since 2017, the NHC has used potential tropical cyclone (PTC) forecasts to alert the public of threats before a storm has even formed. Beginning this hurricane season, they can alert the public up further in advance, now 72 hours out.

    For more information on PTCs, click here

    Rip current risk

    Due to increases in rip current and surf fatalities during a tropical event, the NHC has decided to better highlight the risk during tropical events. 

    “They will now provide rip current risk information that originates from local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in a national rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present.”

    The map will provide rip current risk information but will not give specific information on the height of the surf. Here’s a prototype. 

    2025 Atlantic names

    Here’s a look at the list of names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. 

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Stacy Lynn

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  • Hurricane Milton by the numbers

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    TAMPA, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center released its final report on Hurricane Milton. Here are the final numbers from around Tampa Bay.


    What You Need To Know

    • Milton was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin
    • It had peak winds of 180 mph
    • Milton made landfall near Siesta Key on Oct. 9, 2024
    • More than 20 inches of rain fell in St. Petersburg
    • More Hurricane Milton stories

    MILTON STATS

    Milton was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, reaching Category 5 intensity in the Gulf on Oct. 7, 2024 with peak winds 180 mph (155 kts).

    The pressure is estimated to have been 895 mb at the time of peak intensity. This ties Hurricane Rita of 2005 for the fourth-lowest minimum central pressure in the Atlantic basin. The lower central pressures include 882 mb in Wilma in 2005, 888 mb in Gilbert in 1988 and 892 mb in the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.

    Milton made landfall near Siesta Key on Oct. 9, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. as a Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 mph.

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) estimates that Milton caused $34.3 billion in damage in the United States, almost exclusively in Florida.

    One prominent building damaged by the hurricane was Tropicana Field, where the fabric roof was ripped off by high winds followed by water damage from rain falling into the stadium.

    The report notes that the west coast most affected by Hurricane Milton had also been affected by Hurricane Helene two weeks before, which complicated damage assessments.

    In Florida, Milton caused hurricane conditions along the west coast from Clearwater Beach and Tampa southward across Sarasota to near Venice. Tropical storm conditions occurred elsewhere across the Florida Peninsula south of a Cedar Key – Fernandina Beach line, with hurricane-force wind gusts reported in central Florida near the track of the center.

    STORM SURGE

    Here are the storm surge numbers from Florida’s Gulf Coast.

    • 4-6 ft from Longboat key to Venice and near landfall location.
    • 1-2 feet Tampa Bay (a sharp gradient in the surge occurred north of the landfall location where the winds were mostly offshore)
    • 4–6 ft south of Boca Grande through Bonita Beach.
    • 5–8 ft in the northern portion of Charlotte Harbor and along the Peace River.
    • 6–9 ft from Venice southward to Boca Grande
    • An isolated peak of up to 10 ft estimated near Manasota Key, excluding the height of waves.

    There were destructive storm surge impacts to the Manasota Key beach front community and significant coastal erosion. A new inlet was opened termed Milton Pass. Survey crews concluded that the water was moving extremely fast and the wave action was tremendous, leading to ‘blowout’ of the first floor of many structures.

    The report notes that the same area had a significant storm surge from Hurricane Helene two weeks prior, and the erosion and debris from its aftermath compounded the damages incurred during Milton.

    WINDS

    Here are the top wind reports from Milton that were recorded over water:

    • Egmont Key 86/105 mph
    • Skyway Fishing Pier 73/102 mph
    • Sarasota-Bradenton Airport 69/102 mph
    • Middle Tampa Bay 74/98 mph
    • Egmont Channel 78/100 mph

    Here are the top wind reports from each county around Tampa Bay:

    • Manatee County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, Sarasota-Bradenton Airport 102 mph wind gust
    • Pinellas County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, St. Petersburg Albert Whitted Airport 101 mph wind gust
    • Hillsborough County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, Tampa Airport 93 mph wind gust
    • Polk County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 90 mph, Winter Haven Airport 87 mph wind gust
    • Pasco County: Peak wind gusts 65 to 75 mph, Zephyrhills 59 mph wind gust
    • Hernando County: Peak wind gusts 60 to 70 mph, Brooksville 76 mph wind gust
    • Citrus County: Peak wind gusts 50 to 60 mph., Inverness 58 mph wind gust

    RAINFALL AND FLOODING

    Milton produced a large area of heavy rain across portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula, including 10 to 20 inches of rain in Tampa Bay.

    The highest reported storm total rainfall was 20.40 inches at a Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) site near St. Petersburg.

    Here’s a collection of rainfall reports from the airports, CoCoRaHS, and other sites:

    • 20.40” St. Petersburg
    • 18.88” St. Petersburg Albert Whitted Airport
    • 18.82” near Westchase
    • 16.88” Largo
    • 15.66” Temple Terrace
    • 15.03” Pinellas Park
    • 14.94” Dade City
    • 14.15” Trilby
    • 14.73” Dover
    • 14.13” Zephyrhills
    • 13.68” Oldsmar
    • 13.62” Thonotosassa
    • 13.13” Lakeland Airport
    • 13.05” Plant City
    • 13.05” Bradenton
    • 12.78” Gulfport
    • 12.52” Clearwater
    • 12.32” Citrus Park
    • 11.91” Riverview
    • 11.73” Tampa Airport
    • 11.63” Safety Harbor
    • 11.40” Wesley Chapel
    • 11.10” Tarpon Springs
    • 10.44” Ruskin
    • 10.28” Auburndale
    • 9.67” Lithia
    • 9.46” Spring Hill
    • 9.07” Weeki Wachee
    • 9.02” Elfers
    • 8.15” Myakka Head
    • 7.74” Floral City
    • 7.58” Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
    • 7.51” Homosassa
    • 7.47” Wimauma
    • 7.31” New Port Richey
    • 7.17” Inverness
    • 6.49” Brooksville Airport
    • 6.48” Lecanto
    • 4.77” Holder
    • 4.60 Winter Haven Airport

    Here’s an interactive rainfall map from around Florida.


    These rains caused widespread river and urban flooding, particularly in Tampa Bay with record-high crests on the Hillsborough River: a crest of 38.16 feet at Morris Bridge on Oct. 12 and 17.14 feet near Zephyrhills at Hillsborough River State Park on Oct. 10.

    TORNADOES

    Milton caused a significant tornado outbreak over the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Oct. 9.

    • Milton caused a significant tornado outbreak over the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Oct. 9
    • 45 known tornadoes on land and a tornadic waterspout over Lake Okeechobee
    • The outbreak included 3 EF3 tornadoes, 6 EF2 tornadoes, 25 EF1 tornadoes, 7 EF0 tornadoes and 4 tornadoes of unknown intensity.
    • One of the EF3 tornadoes killed six people near Fort Pierce and Vero Beach.
    • There were 14 known injuries associated with the tornadoes.

    Here is an interactive map of the tornadoes produced by Hurricane Milton.


    IMPACTS

    Milton is currently known to be responsible for 15 direct deaths – 12 in the United States (all in Florida) and 3 in Mexico.

    • Six people died due to the tornado near Fort Pierce and Vero Beach.
    • Four people were killed by falling trees, while there were two deaths due to freshwater flooding.

    Milton caused 27 indirect deaths in the United States, all in Florida.

    Most of the deaths were due to health issues during storm preparations or post-storm clean-up or due to falls related to storm preparations, clean-up, or power failures.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Staff

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  • What to know about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane names

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    The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is just over a month away, and there is a list of new names to familiarize yourself with.

    This year will follow up on a busy 2024 season where there were five landfalling hurricanes, three of which have had their names retired.


    What You Need To Know

    • Forecasters started naming storms in 1950
    • The 2025 name list was last used in 2019
    • There is a list of supplemental names if more than 21 names are used


    Researchers at Colorado State University are calling for above normal activity again this year, you can read more about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook here.

    How and when are storms named?

    A storm gets named when it achieves tropical storm status (winds of 39 mph or higher). It becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph, but keeps the same name. In meteorology, any tropical storm or greater is referred to as a tropical cyclone.

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) creates lists of names and cycles each list every six years. Each list contains 21 names, alternating between male and female names. A name may be retired if it is deemed too destructive by the WMO and they would add a new name to the list.

    Here is the list of names that will be used this year. It was last used 6 years ago, in 2019. Dexter is new this year, replacing Dorian after it was retired for causing significant destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.

    History of naming conventions

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), hundreds of years ago, tropical cyclones were named after Saint’s Day, which occurred nearest to the day of the storm. Consider, “Hurricane Santa Ana,” a violent storm that hit Puerto Rico on July 26, 1825.

    Before 1950, storms were noted by their latitude and longitude. This proved problematic when trying to relay information to the public. It was confusing, so meteorologists streamlined this process using the phonetic alphabet to name the storms (Able, Baker, Charlie, etc.). 

    Starting in 1953, storms were given female names. Rumor has it that a member of the committee was angry at his wife and wanted to name a storm after her. 

    Whether that’s true, Alice was the first named storm of the 1953 season. All-female names continued until 1979, when male names were added to alternate within the list.

    Greek names

    Prior to 2021, after the 21 names were exhausted, the Greek alphabet was used. 2005 and 2020 were the only two seasons to feature the Greek alphabet. 

    However, this proved difficult for several reasons, including what would happen after a storm was so destructive the name should be retired, as was the case for Eta and Iota in 2020. Additionally, coronavirus variants use Greek letters, adding to possible confusion.

    Supplemental list

    To account for these issues, the WMO created a supplemental names list. This list featured another 21 names from A to W that alternate male and female names. This list will remain the same each year, only swapping out a name if it is retired. 

    Hurricane preparedness kit

    Now is the time to reevaluate your hurricane preparedness kit. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, your kit should include, at a minimum: 

    • Water: one gallon per person, per day (3-day supply for evacuation, 2-week supply for home).
    • Food: non-perishable, easy-to-prepare items (3-day supply for evacuation, 2-week supply for home).
    • Flashlight.
    • Battery-powered or hand-crank radio (NOAA Weather Radio, if possible).
    •  Extra batteries.
    • First aid kit.
    • Medications (7-day supply) and medical items.
    • Multi-purpose tool, like a Swiss Army knife. 
    • Sanitation and personal hygiene items.
    • Copies of personal documents (medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies).
    • Cellphone with charger.
    • Family and emergency contact information.
    • Extra cash (ATMs might be inoperable).
    • Extra fuel for generator and car.

    Depending on your family’s requirements, you may need to include medical care items, baby supplies, pet supplies, and other things, such as extra car and house keys.

    Additional supplies might include towels, plastic sheeting, duct tape, scissors and work gloves.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger, Meteorologist Stacy Lynn

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  • Beryl, Helene and Milton retired from the list of Atlantic storm names

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    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Hurricane Committee is retiring Beryl, Helene and Milton from the rotating list of Atlantic names.


    What You Need To Know

    • Beryl, Helene and Milton are being retired from the list of names
    • The WMO retires names if they cause exceptional death or damage
    • Brianna, Holly and Miguel will replace the names in 2030


    Beryl, Helene and Milton all caused significant death and destruction across the Caribbean, Mexico and United States during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.


    There were no Atlantic storm names retired during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Before Beryl, Helene and Milton, the most recent names retired were Ian and Fiona from 2022.

    The WMO names Atlantic storms and the list is recycled every six years. The list alternates between male and female names, and includes English, French and Spanish names to reflect the geographical coverage of Atlantic and Caribbean storms.

    If a storm is particularly deadly or costly, its name is retired and replaced by a new one for sensitivity reasons. The WMO has now retired 99 names from the Atlantic basin list since 1953.

    You can learn more about each storm below.

    Beryl

    Beryl was an early season, record-breaking storm that made three landfalls and strengthened into the earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic on record during its lifespan. 

    Beryl formed on Friday, June 28, becoming the second named storm of the year. It first became a hurricane on Saturday, June 29, and on Sunday, June 30, it became the earliest Atlantic Category 4 storm on record. 

    It was the earliest major hurricane (Category 3+) to form in the Atlantic basin since 1966, and the third earliest major hurricane to form on record. 

    It made its first of three landfalls on Carriacou Island in Grenada on Monday, July 1, as a strong Category 4 with max winds of 150 mph. It was the earliest Category 4 storm to make landfall in the Atlantic basin on record.

    Beryl moved back over the southeastern Caribbean Sea and continued to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane. It became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, breaking the prior record held by Hurricane Emily in 2005 by two weeks. Beryl was also the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record.

    It brushed past the south of Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane before making its second landfall just northeast of Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. It moved inland on the morning of July 5, as a Category 2 hurricane with max winds of 110 mph.

    Its third and final landfall was near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8, as a Category 1 hurricane with max winds of 80 mph.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl is known to be responsible for at least 68 deaths. 34 were directly attributed to the storm’s winds, rain and tornadoes. 34 were indirectly caused by the storm in the U.S.

    NOAA estimates that Beryl’s damage to property in the U.S. was up to $7.2 billion and millions of dollars in the Caribbean and Mexico.

    Helene

    Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, Sept. 24 and became the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the fifth hurricane, the second major one (Category 3+) of the season.

    Helene developed from a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, becoming a tropical storm as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula, and became a hurricane on Wednesday, Sept. 25.

    Helene rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday, Sept. 26 as it approached the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

    Helene reached peak intensity with winds of 140 mph before it made landfall near Perry, Fla., along the Big Bend region, maintaining winds of 140 mph and peak intensity. This was the strongest storm to ever made landfall along the Big Bend coast of Florida. 

    It devastated Florida’s Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay area with storm surge inundation up to 6 to 9 feet above ground level.

    As Helene moved inland, it quickly weakened to a tropical storm and eventually became a post-tropical cyclone before stalling out and dissipating.

    An upper-level disturbance merged with the weakening Helene as it traversed Georgia and South Carolina, bringing catastrophic rainfall and flooding to areas in the Southeast.

    It brought widespread destruction across the southern Appalachians and inundated the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina border area with flooding, landslides and strong wind gusts. 

    Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 inches occurred over a large area within the mountainous region of western North Carolina. 

    According to the National Hurricane Center, Helene was the deadliest hurricane for the contiguous U.S. since Katrina in 2005, with at least 248 fatalities (including at least 175 direct deaths), and produced an estimated $78.7 billion in damage in the United States.

    Milton

    Milton formed into a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, Oct. 5, and quickly intensified into a hurricane on Sunday, Oct. 6, becoming the ninth hurricane of the season. 

    By the morning of Oct. 7, Milton was a Category 3 hurricane, making it the fourth major hurricane of the season. By the late afternoon of that same day, Milton underwent rapid intensification and became a Category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 180 mph as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico. It solidified itself in the record books before making landfall.

    It fluctuated in strength over the next two days from a high-end Category 4 storm to a low-end Category 5 hurricane. As it approached the western coast of the Florida peninsula, it interacted with a front and weakened to a Category 3 hurricane. 

    Prior to landfall on Oct. 7, the outer rainbands spawned tornadoes in central and southern Florida. A total of 126 tornado warnings were issued in Florida, the second most tornado warnings ever issued in one day, and the most ever in Florida or from a tropical system. 

    Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph on the evening of Oct. 9 near Siesta Key, Florida. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane shortly after landfall and eventually became a Category 1 storm. It maintained hurricane status as it crossed the Florida peninsula. 

    As Milton moved inland, heavy rain created a flash flood emergency north of the center of circulation, including the cities of St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater. The maximum reported rainfall was 20.4″ in St. Petersburg.

    It is the fifth Gulf Coast landfalling hurricane this year, joining Beryl, Debby, Francine and Helene. It ties 2005 and 2020 for the second most Gulf hurricane landfalls on record, trailing only 1886, where six Gulf hurricanes made landfall.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton is currently known to be responsible for 15 direct deaths – 12 in the United States (all in Florida) and 3 in Mexico. Milton caused 27 indirect deaths in the United States, all in Florida.

    NOAA estimates that Milton caused $34.3 billion in damage in the United States, almost exclusively in Florida.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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  • Hurricane Season 2024: a look at how well the models performed

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    The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season was expected to be one for the record books. Early forecasts had a record number of storms developing in the Atlantic basin because of favorable environmental conditions.


    What You Need To Know

    • The GFS model did well with several tropical systems this season from formation to dissipation
    • Hurricane Hunters happen to be at the right place to survey Hurricane Oscar
    • Models don’t do well with precursor small-scale tropical systems


    But no one could have predicted how the actual season would pan out, with five storms making landfall in the United States, three of them in Florida, with these storms causing fatalities and massive destruction.

    The forecast in May predicted “the highest number of named storms NOAA had ever issued” in its pre-season outlook.” Thanks to a waning El Niño transitioning to a La Niña during peak season, environmental conditions were expected to become conducive for development, and that it did.

    First half of the season

    The season officially began on June 19 with Tropical Storm Alberto. It was followed by Beryl, Chris, Debby and Ernesto.

    Beryl and Debby became the most notable storms during the first half of the season, as both made landfall in the U.S. Beryl made the history books, reaching Category 5 status earlier in the season than any other storm.

    Late summer lull

    After Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20, there seemed to be a quiet period. With hurricane activity in the Atlantic subsiding near the peak of hurricane season, the validity of seasonal forecasts was in doubt. 

    It’s important to note that it’s not that there wasn’t any activity. Hurricane Francine developed in the Caribbean Sea and moved into the Gulf of Mexico before landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11.

    “As is often the case with seasonal hurricane activity, there isn’t usually just one cause for it being active or quiet,” says Meteorologist Craig Setzer, a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Hurricane Preparedness Specialist.

    He adds, “This year, it appeared to be a combination of very dry air and an increase in Saharan dust outbreaks along with warmer than normal air temperatures in the middle-and-upper parts of the atmosphere that created the mid-seasonal lull.” Less unstable conditions existed and tropical cyclones need instability for development.

    “The long range forecast tended to be right for all of the wrong reasons,” says Spectrum Bay News 9’s Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay. “A very active Cape Verde season was expected, which didn’t happen. Instead, the Central American Gyre was very active late in the season giving us several significant hurricanes.”

    Mid-September activity increases

    As soon as the climatological peak of hurricane season was reached (Sept. 10), tropical activity seemed to awaken. Tropical Storm Gordon formed on Sept. 13 in the central-eastern Atlantic, but remained over the open Atlantic and never surpassed tropical strom strength.

    Mid-Sept. also brought the formation of Helene, one of the costliest and deadliest storms this season. Helene would make landfall near Perry, Florida on Sept. 26.

    Models and forecast track cones

    From tropical storm to landfall was only a matter of days for Hurricane Helene, and knowing the track of the storm was vital to protect lives and property. Various data models assist meteorologists in forecasting, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses these models to create a forecast track cone.

    “The National Hurricane Center relies heavily on global and regional (hurricane) models, which they call ‘guidance’ or ‘aides’ to help create a forecast track,” says Setzer.

    National Hurricane Center

    One specific model did relatively well with several storms this season, from development to landfall. “The Global Forecast System or GFS is a global model which has shown improved skill in predicting tropical cyclone development well ahead of other models.” 

    However, just because it does well with one storm, doesn’t mean it will accurately predict all storms. Setzer says, “It has a high false alarm bias, so it also tends to overpredict development that ends up not happening.”

    In this age of social media, where folks might be heightened aware of tropical development, this bias could create a panic with the model showing a land-falling hurricane ten days out only for the storm to not develop or dissipate well before land.

    Regional forecasting models

    Another type of model the NHC uses to refine its forecast tracks is the regional hurricane model. Referred to as regional because, as Setzer says, “They don’t cover the whole globe, just the region of a hurricane.” This model became vital during Hurricane Milton.

    Adding, “The Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS) version B did a good job not only predicting Milton’s intensity but also predicting when it would strengthen and weaken based on internal storm dynamics.”

    However, that was after Milton had already formed. Before development, the models struggle. This was the case with both Hurricanes Milton and Oscar.

    Models aren’t exact

    The NHC releases outlooks every six hours during the season for the tropical basins, including the Atlantic. Those include both a two-day graphical tropical weather outlook and a seven-day graphical tropical weather outlook. This year, both Hurricanes Milton and Oscar precursor storms were given low odds of development, only to then form within 12 to 24 hours.

    An area of disturbed weather that would eventually become Milton was given low odds to develop two days before Milton formed. (NHC)

    “Milton was fairly well predicted after the area of convection started to consolidate in the western Gulf of Mexico. Prior to that, there were several areas the models seemed to focus on for development, but it didn’t occur,” explains Setzer.

    Adding, “Oscar was such a small system, it likely was underrepresented in the data going into the model, and then the model has difficulty in the handling of a very small atmospheric feature.”

    Oscar ended up being the smallest hurricane on record, with a hurricane wind field of five or six miles. The Hurricane Hunters, scientists and pilots who fly into tropical systems to investigate conditions happened to be at the right place at the right time. Due to its Oscar’s proximity to land, they flew into the storm.  

    Would the same designation have been given if the storm was in the far eastern Atlantic?

    “It’s a good question.”

    He explains. “While our satellites are very good, they currently cannot resolve small-scale storm intensity. It is likely Oscar would have been only designated a tropical storm had it remained in the open ocean away from aircraft reconnaissance. “

    Overall, the models did well with all 18 named storms this season. “I’m hopeful this trend in model improvement will bring us better predictions, resulting in more specific warnings and storm preparation areas in the near future,” says Setzer.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Stacy Lynn

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