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  • How AOC’s presidential odds stand after Munich appearances

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    New York’s Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s highest‑profile outing on the world stage yet at the Munich Security Conference last week has sharpened speculation about her long‑term political ambitions.

    Newsweek has reached out to Ocasio‑Cortez via email for comment. 

    Why It Matters

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s emergence on an international platform comes as Democrats begin to look beyond President Donald Trump’s time in office and toward a generational reshaping of party leadership

    How seriously she is taken as a future contender is increasingly reflected in both betting odds and prediction markets.

    What To Know

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s trip to Germany marked her most prominent international appearance to date, placing the New York congresswoman alongside world leaders and senior policymakers at one of the world’s most closely watched global security forums.

    She has defended the purpose of her trip and rejected suggestions that it was about positioning herself for a White House run.

    But William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek the Munich Security Conference represented a significant step in how her political trajectory is now being viewed.

    “AOC’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference was a notable step, an outing onto the world stage where she received as much attention as some other heads of state,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “While it was not all plain sailing, the fact she was there shows an intention and a seriousness to be at the very least heavily involved in any conversation.”

    Although Ocasio‑Cortez has built her reputation largely through domestic policy battles, the Munich appearance elevated her international profile and placed her within a broader discussion about future Democratic leadership

    The visibility alone has contributed to renewed scrutiny of her standing in early 2028 calculations.

    Star Sports currently lists Ocasio‑Cortez at 12/1 to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election, placing her behind Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, but ahead of a wide field of potential contenders. 

    Within the Democratic race, she is priced at 7/1 to secure the party’s nomination, second only to Newsom, the 6/4 favorite.

    “Newsom is very much dominating the betting from the Democrat side, but Ocasio‑Cortez is the only person to get close,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “If she were to express a serious interest in running, I’m sure that those odds would go much shorter than they are now.”

    Kedjanyi also pointed to shifting dynamics on the Democratic left, where Ocasio‑Cortez is widely seen as a natural heir to the progressive movement once led nationally by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

    “There’s no doubt that there is a lot of youth energy behind Ocasio‑Cortez, particularly with Senator Bernie Sanders on the left of the party, perhaps not as prominent as he once was after his two runs for president,” he said. 

    “And despite having perhaps the largest international profile of any Democrats at this moment in time, Newsom does have an open exposed flank on his left.”

    Prediction Markets

    Prediction markets tracking the 2028 Democratic nomination and the presidential race more broadly largely mirror the picture seen in traditional betting, with Newsom consistently positioned as the front-runner and Ocasio‑Cortez grouped among the leading alternatives.

    Kalshi and PolyMarket put her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nominee at 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively, at the time of writing, with Kalshi’s figure rising 3 percentage points since her arrival in Germany on February 12 and PolyMarket’s staying relatively flat.  

    While no sharp post‑Munich surge has been recorded, markets continue to place Ocasio‑Cortez firmly within the top tier of speculative contenders, reflecting her sustained national prominence and the added exposure from her highest‑profile international appearance to date.

    Prediction markets tend to move decisively only after candidates signal formal intent, meaning her position could shift quickly if she were to indicate clearer presidential ambitions.

    What People Are Saying

    William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “It would be no surprise if Ocasio‑Cortez could mount a challenge from the left of the party using its progressive wing.”

    President Donald Trump said of Ocasio‑Cortez following her appearance in Munich: “I watched AOC answering questions in Munich. This was not a good look for the United States.”

    He added in remarks to reporters on Air Force One: “She’s just Trump deranged. She was so deranged. She is an angry woman. But I watched the other two speaking and answering basic questions.

    “I never heard her speak very much, and they started answering questions. She had no idea what was happening. She had no idea how to answer, you know, very important questions concerning the world, but she can’t answer questions concerning New York City, either, because New York City has got some problems.

    Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez said during a Sunday: “Progressive foreign policy has not been represented internationally in a very long time, if not ever, and I felt that it was very important to start bringing that into spaces of power.”

    She added: “I remain ambitious, but my ambitions are in changing our political environment. That’s why I—when I was first elected—my ambition was to change the Democratic Party.”

    New York Democratic strategist Jon Reinish previously told The Hill: “She has flubbed on foreign policy before, in speeches, in interviews, in some pretty high‑profile ways. So it was a bit surprising to me that she put herself in a position to do so again, on an even more high‑profile stage.”

    What Happens Next

    Ocasio‑Cortez has not officially declared any intention to run for president, and the Democratic field remains unsettled with years still to go before formal campaigning begins.

    In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it’s not “both sides,” it’s sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

    When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. Help keep the center courageous. Join today.

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  • Democrats Should Run a Governor for President in 2028

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    The very electable Andy Beshear.
    Photo: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg/Getty Images

    In a long profile of potential presidential candidate Andy Beshear at Politico, Jonathan Martin elicited one absolutely firm comment from the Kentucky governor about 2028: “The Democratic Party needs to nominate a Democratic governor.” He wasn’t just talking about himself, though he’s nearing the end of two terms as chief executive of a very red state. California’s Gavin Newsom and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker are likely 2028 candidates perceived as very different in temperament and even ideology from the model moderate Beshear. Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro is perceived as being in the same “lane” as the Kentuckian, but doesn’t have the same laid-back personality. Maryland’s Wes Moore is an up-and-comer who hasn’t chosen sides in national party factional battles. Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer’s star has faded a bit, but she’s still a major party figure who could take the presidential plunge.

    Putting aside all these individuals and their specific strengths and weaknesses, is Beshear right about governors being not just a better bet for Democrats right now but essential for victory?

    Traditionally, big-state governorships were thought of as the best platform for a presidential candidacy. Though only 17 of the 47 presidents were governors, only four men (James Garfield, Warren Harding, John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama) have gone directly from Congress to the White House. Among Democrats, however, the last sitting or former governor to win a presidential nomination was Bill Clinton. Indeed, the last governor to run a viable Democratic nomination contest was Howard Dean in 2004, and his signature issue was foreign policy (his opposition to the Iraq War). In the crowded 2020 Democratic presidential field, four governors or former governors ran, but three dropped out before Iowa and the other (Deval Patrick) had zero impact on the race. So the prospective bumper crop of Democratic governors in 2028 is rather remarkable.

    What governors have that senators simply don’t is a record of executive accomplishment and practical management experience. Only the top tier of members of Congress get anything like the media coverage virtually every governor commands. As state civic leaders, governors are presumed to represent people of both parties even if they are the bitterest of partisans. And in this era of chronic anti-Washington sentiment, governors can treat the federal government with the disdain most voters feel.

    A governor might also provide a positive contrast to the very likely GOP presidential nominee in 2028, J.D. Vance, who has never run much of anything other than his mouth. When he heads out on the 2028 campaign trail right after the midterms, Vance will have had two years experience as Donald Trump’s very subordinate attack dog, and two years as an obscure Senate backbencher who barely got his seat warm. And most of all, Vance will be the candidate of the incumbent presidential party in 2028, with any “outsider” claims looking ludicrous.

    Looking at Trump-era Democratic politics more generally, senators make noise while governors at least have a chance to make laws, build things, and do things. This is one reason members of Congress posture so much about “fighting” Trump. Words are all they have. And in 2028, as Beshear makes clear to Martin, Democrats will likely be in a mood to stop fighting and start winning. All other things being equal, governors have an advantage in electability, if only because their identities transcend party and many of them have a record of winning Republican votes. If Democrats enter the 2028 election cycle feeling very confident of victory, maybe an AOC, who has never run a campaign outside New York City, or a Pete Buttigieg, whose top elected post was in a small Indiana city, will suffice. But if, as is more likely, prospects for victory look iffy, Democrats are very likely to look for a champion who’s not mostly known for long speeches in Congress (sorry, Cory Booker!)

    Among the governors who may run in 2028, of course, Beshear is distinctive for his enormous political success in a state where Republicans have super-majorities in both legislative chambers and hold seven of eight spots in the congressional delegation. He would enter the nomination contest as presumptively electable. If he can just figure out how to excite people who have been “fighting Trump” so long that they sometimes mistake words for action and moral victories for actual victories, Beshear could go all the way to the White House.

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    Ed Kilgore

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  • From courthouse to keyboard: The rising cost of the NC courts digital conversion

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    The final group of counties to implement the eCourts conversion, which began in February 2023, went online Oct. 13. All 100 North Carolina counties now have online access to court records and services.

    The final group of counties to implement the eCourts conversion, which began in February 2023, went online Oct. 13. All 100 North Carolina counties now have online access to court records and services.

    NC Administrative Office of the Courts

    North Carolina courts this month crossed a major threshold into the digital age, shifting court records from a final batch of 13 counties from the courthouse to the cloud.

    It’s a pivotal moment for state courts and their years-long effort to digitize an archaic system that relied on paper filings and a mainframe.

    “Full implementation of the eCourts project is a significant milestone in modernizing the North Carolina court system,” reads a quote from Ryan S. Boyce, director of the Administrative Office of the Courts, in a recent press release.

    While AOC officials have been touting the system’s successes, they haven’t shared much publicly about the increased costs or expanded services included in what started out as a 10-year, $85 million contract with Texas-based Tyler Technologies in 2019.

    A News & Observer review of contract amendments and add-on agreements indicates the total cost could be more than double that — at least $188.8 million — through 2034.

    That is just the amount the state could pay Tyler, the company selected to digitize and integrate the many facets of the court system used by thousands of state employees, law enforcement and millions of residents.

    State pay records obtained by the News & Observer indicate AOC has also spent millions of dollars on overtime, with the amounts climbing in 2023 and 2024 after AOC launched the conversion. In addition, AOC has spent at least $8.7 million on equipment and IT services related to the transition, excluding Tyler.

    When asked about the costs outlined in Tyler’s now 15-year contract and its amendments, AOC communications director Graham Wilson noted that changes to the contract added new services and customizations, including a digital warrant and appellate case management systems, “rather than cost escalations of the original agreement’s scope.”

    He also wrote that it “is not consistent with the terms of the contract” to say that AOC has committed to paying Tyler at least $188.8 million through 2034.

    “The contract provides a fixed cost structure for prospective software services that limits escalation fees over the 15-year period from 2020-2034,” wrote Wilson. The statement stressed that AOC can terminate the contract and will only pay for services provided in compliance with the contract.

    That said, AOC has given no indication it plans to walk away from the cloud-based system it has spent years — and tens of millions of dollars — building and integrating.

    Signs announcing that eCourts would soon debut at the Mecklenburg County Courthouse in Charlotte in September 2023.
    Signs announcing that eCourts would soon debut at the Mecklenburg County Courthouse in Charlotte in September 2023. Melissa Melvin-Rodriguez mrodriguez@charlotteobserver.com

    From courthouse to keyboard

    Work on the new system began about a decade ago, aimed at replacing stacks of courthouse paper with a digital system accessible anywhere with an internet connection.

    A committee of court officials from across the state spent months reviewing bids from potential vendors before unanimously backing Tyler’s plan, The News & Observer reported.

    AOC signed the 10-year, $85 million contract with Tyler in the summer of 2019. North Carolina became the most populous state to use the company’s Odyssey software, according to a Tyler press release.

    In July 2022, the state rolled out a new digital warrant system. By February 2023, Wake and three other counties became the first to pilot online access and filing through eCourts, giving residents the ability to file documents, pay fines and look up civil, criminal and traffic cases online.

    Months after that launch, a federal civil rights lawsuit filed against counties, sheriffs and Tyler contended that North Carolina residents were wrongly arrested or detained due to flaws in the system. In September 2023, district attorneys in the pilot and other counties pushed for an independent review of the rollout due to glitches and delays.

    Kevin Spruill holds up release paperwork that he carried in case he was stopped and detained by law enforcement on an arrest warrant that should have been recalled. Spruill is one of several plaintiffs who in 2023 signed onto a potential class action lawsuit alleging that the rollout of the state’s eCourt system violated their civil rights.
    Kevin Spruill holds up release paperwork that he carried in case he was stopped and detained by law enforcement on an arrest warrant that should have been recalled. Spruill is one of several plaintiffs who in 2023 signed onto a potential class action lawsuit alleging that the rollout of the state’s eCourt system violated their civil rights. Ethan Hyman ehyman@newsobserver.com

    AOC officials did not pursue the evaluation. They instead urged patience as court workers adjusted to the changes and Tyler made fixes. And it took steps to expand and increase Tyler’s contract.

    The now statewide record management system does more than improve the public’s access to records previously available only in courthouses across the state. More than 47,000 people in law enforcement use it to send citations, warrants and magistrate orders straight to court officials. So do state Department of Motor Vehicles, Health and Human Services and Department of Justice staff, according to information from AOC.

    As recently as last month, district attorneys from the three Triangle counties stated that the new system remains cumbersome and difficult to use, resulting in slow data entry, delays, and other challenges.

    “People in the field have stopped attempting to report issues because issues reported never seem to be resolved,” wrote Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman in an email.

    Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman in administrative traffic court in the Wake County Justice Center in Raleigh in September 2023.
    Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman in administrative traffic court in the Wake County Justice Center in Raleigh in September 2023. Ethan Hyman ehyman@newsobserver.com

    How the contract evolved and expanded

    Documents that The N&O obtained with public records requests show how the Tyler contract expansion unfolded before and after the conversion started:

    • July 2019: Initial deal with NCAOC is announced for $85 million.
    • February 2020: Tyler signs a $14.5 million contract with AOC for an eCitation program to integrate a digital solution system for citations.
    • July 2020: Tyler signs a $24 million contract with AOC to establish an electronic warrant processing system, which was launched in July 2022.
    • February 2023: Pilot counties, including Wake, Johnson, Lee and Harnett, implemented the digital eCourts system.
    • September 2023: Contract amendment number seven added $1.6 million in “post implementation custom development.”
    • December 2023: AOC extended the length of the Tyler Technologies contract from 10 to 15 years, according to contract amendment number eight, which included an optional $3.2 million for customer support account management fees. The potential cost: an additional $76.9 million through fiscal years 2030 and 2034.
    • January 2024 to September 2025: Contract amendments nine through 16 added nearly $2 million in “post-implementation custom development” fees.

    Scanned cases for Superior Court on a shelf in the criminal division of the clerk’s office at the Mecklenburg County Courthouse in 2023. The courthouse started using the new digital system that year.
    Scanned cases for Superior Court on a shelf in the criminal division of the clerk’s office at the Mecklenburg County Courthouse in 2023. The courthouse started using the new digital system that year. Melissa Melvin-Rodriguez mrodriguez@charlotteobserver.com

    The contract and its amendments were signed and expanded over a period where AOC was run by three directors appointed by two North Carolina Supreme Court chief justices, a Democrat and a Republican. Boyce, the current director, was appointed in 2023.

    The News & Observer asked AOC multiple times how much they have paid Tyler to date, but officials did not respond.

    An N&O analysis of records obtained from the Office of the State Controller, however, shows it has paid Tyler Technologies $63.2 million for “software subscriptions” and “automation services” from January 2020 to Sept. 10, 2025.

    In addition, AOC has paid $8.7 million to other vendors from Oct. 16, 2023 to April 29, 2025 out of two designated eCourts accounts for IT services, computer/printer equipment, workshops, lodging, transportation and meals.

    More than half of those expenses — $5.2 million — was paid to one company, Computer Aid Inc., for “IT project management analysis services,” according to the expense records.

    Other vendors include: 1st Run Computer Services Inc, $993,435; Mainline Information Systems, $443,468; and Lenovo Inc., $317,776.

    A true accounting of the overall cost is a complex task, Wilson, the agency’s communications director, wrote in an email. An accurate analysis would weigh short- and long-term savings, as well as the project’s overall scope and longevity, Wilson said.

    “It would be difficult to analyze comprehensively the inestimable value of online services for the state compared to paper processes, or to predict the potential future savings from automation, digital access, and other modern technologies that the new system supports,” Wilson wrote.

    The Wake County Justice Center, the building on the right, was one of the first to pilot the new digital court transformation in February 2023.
    The Wake County Justice Center, the building on the right, was one of the first to pilot the new digital court transformation in February 2023. ssharpe@newsobserver.com

    What records show about overtime pay at AOC

    An N&O analysis of employee compensation records obtained from the Department of State Treasurer shows overtime pay for AOC employees started rising as the state prepared to launch eCourts in the pilot counties in October 2022, which was eventually delayed until February 2023.

    Overtime costs, mostly paid to deputy clerks and assistant clerks, totalled $4.7 million in 2023 and reached $6.3 million in 2024.

    That’s a significant contrast to the $2.3 million in overtime AOC paid over a decade, from 2010 to 2020.

    When asked about overtime costs, Wilson provided information indicating that AOC authorized $4.78 million in overtime in 2024 and $1.1 million in January and February for overtime pay to employees related to the digital transition.

    “The Judicial Branch authorized some employees to work limited overtime in recent years. This authorization equipped clerks, district attorneys, and judicial offices with resources to address the COVID-19 shutdowns and the implementation of digital courts,” Wilson said in an email response.

    AOC did not provide any explanation of the difference between the authorized overtime costs and the overtime pay in the Department of State Treasurer’s records.

    Virginia Bridges covers criminal justice in the Triangle and across North Carolina for The News & Observer. Her work is produced with financial support from the nonprofit The Just Trust. The N&O maintains full editorial control of its journalism.

    Virginia Bridges

    The News & Observer

    Virginia Bridges covers what is and isn’t working in North Carolina’s criminal justice system for The News & Observer’s and The Charlotte Observer’s investigation team. She has worked for newspapers for more than 20 years. The N.C. State Bar Association awarded her the Media & Law Award for Best Series in 2018, 2020 and 2025.

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    Virginia Bridges,David Raynor

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  • AOC Calls Out Trans Sports Bans That Promote Predatory 'Genital Examinations'

    AOC Calls Out Trans Sports Bans That Promote Predatory 'Genital Examinations'

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    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) tore into Republican lawmakers during a congressional hearing regarding bans on transgender athletes in sports. AOC acknowledged the proposed sports bans as being discriminatory and transphobic, which they undoubtedly are. Then she went on to unpack the horrifying ramifications of these kinds of bills, which affect not only trans athletes but cisgender ones as well.

    “I think about this all the time because trans people in the United States doesn’t even exceed one percent of our population and yet, there are so many resources, energy, and time dedicated to figuring out how we can more finely exclude them from our sports.” AOC continued, “I started to realize that a lot of these proposals here involve invasions of privacy of all women.”

    AOC then asked Fatima Goss Graves, president and CEO of the National Women’s Law Center, what “sex testing” entails. The answer is horrifying. Goss Graves said, “In some states, it requires actual genital verification, which is shocking.”

    If you’re appalled by the above statement, you’re not alone. Ocasio-Cortez responded, “In Ohio, there was a proposed ban on trans athletes that originally allowed for genital examinations on minors in order to quote-unquote protect women.” She added, “And so we’re seeing here, in this guise, under this guise, of not only trying to further marginalize trans women and girls, we’re opening up all women and girls to genital examinations when they are underage.”

    She added, “Per usual, I don’t believe we’re sitting here in a panel of men that has actually thought about the biology and privacy consequences of all women, trans or cisgender, here.” AOC then discussed the groups more likely to face this kind of horrific discrimination, namely Black women and girls. Goss Graves noted, “We have seen examples of Black women who are even professional athletes whose bodies have been more examined and demonized.”

    We have, of course, seen Black women athletes and their bodies scrutinized, such as South African Olympic gold medalist Caster Semenya. Even international athletic superstars like Simone Biles and Serena Williams have been subject to intense criticism and discrimination.

    You know, for a political party that accuses everyone else of grooming, Republicans are awfully desperate to inspect childrens’ genitals.

    (featured image: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    Have a tip we should know? [email protected]

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    Chelsea Steiner

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  • Raise Your Hand If You’ve Been Personally Victimized By Ticketmaster

    Raise Your Hand If You’ve Been Personally Victimized By Ticketmaster

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    Updated: 11/18/22 at 2:17 PM

    Within mere hours of posting this article, two major things have happened: Taylor Swift publicly condemned Ticketmaster, who apparently promised they were equipped to handle such demand, and the Department of Justice has agreed to launch investigation into the monopolistic website.

    The downfall of Twitter and Elon…the downfall of Ticketmaster….who’s next?

    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    When Taylor Swift announced The Eras Tour, millions of fans flocked to Ticketmaster to sign up for a chance to win the Verified Fan presale code…myself included. I waited in a three-hour line just to enter my information and cross my fingers that a website randomly selects my name for a code to buy tickets.


    I was less surprised when I didn’t receive a Verified Fan code…but no matter! In my clutches was a Capital One credit card, which guaranteed me a chance at tickets to see Taylor. I was super encouraged. Until I waited another three hours in a queue only to be informed tickets were sold out.

    For a while, I’ve been an active advocate for abolishing Ticketmaster’s monopoly on the live entertainment ticket market. I’m used to waiting in an hour-long queue to fight for the chance at one face-value ticket for Harry Styles. If you don’t nab a face-value ticket, then you’re looking at paying $1,000 per. Seat. Thanks to money-grubbing resellers.

    Things went from bad to worse when a reported 14 million people flooded Ticketmaster to purchase Taylor Swift tickets. Since Ticketmaster’s merger with Live Nation in 2010, the website has complete control over tickets…making it virtually impossible to access a face-value ticket.

    Not only was the The Eras Tour presale such a cataclysmic debacle that Capital One postponed their presale for 24-hours…the general sale has been canceled because Ticketmaster sold 2 million tickets during the presale. Swift’s previous Reputation Stadium Tour sold 2.8 million tickets in total.

    Ticketmaster has drawn national attention due to this blatant robbery. Politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are calling for the Department of Justice to look into this un-checked monopoly. For now, I will stream Midnights and pretend I’m in a stadium with Taylor.

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    Jai Phillips

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