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Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut
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Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.
Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.
“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.
Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”
Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.
Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting
Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.
While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.
Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.
Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.
Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.
Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.
Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results
The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.
Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09% ,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36% .Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise.[ad_2]
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Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut
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Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.
Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.
“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.
Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”
Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.
Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting
Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.
While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.
Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.
Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.
Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.
Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.
Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results
The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.
Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09% ,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36% .Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise.[ad_2]
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Apple stock surges toward best day since 2020 as it’s dubbed rare ‘bright spot’ amid Big Tech ‘carnage’
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Which Big Tech company is not like the others?
Apparently it’s Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+7.56% ,
which is set to become the only mega-cap technology company not to see a sharp post-earnings decline in its stock price this week, after the smartphone giant delivered a somewhat mixed earnings report but seemed to reassure Wall Street just enough about the state of its demand.Read: Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones
The stock was up 7.6% in Friday morning trading and on track to log its largest single-day percentage gain since July 31, 2020, when it increased 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Apple is “the bright spot amid mega-cap carnage,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers, as Apple topped expectations with its headline results despite the backdrop of “a lot of macro/geopolitical uncertainties” as well as foreign-exchange pressures.
While Apple fell short with its iPhone sales numbers for the September quarter, Rakers noted that the company has been constrained by supply for its Pro models. At the same time, he noted that Mac revenue easily exceeded the consensus view, which supported his thesis that “Apple is solidly positioned as share taker in PCs.”
He further pointed out that Apple results were burdened by a deeper-than-expected impact from foreign exchange. But “look past the FX headwinds & you’ll see why everyone is hiding in Apple,” he said.
Rakers rates the stock at overweight with a $185 price target.
Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani called Apple “the last FAANG standing.”
“Overall, revenue and EPS estimates will shift higher from current levels and given the broadly disappointing EPS calls from big tech this was an impressive set of numbers and guide,” he wrote in his note to clients.
Though Apple didn’t give formal financial guidance, it offered various pieces of commentary around the December quarter, including that it could see a 10-point headwind from foreign exchange in the period and recognize a “few hundred” basis points of impact from an extra week being added to the quarter, even as Mac revenue is set for a substantial decline.
“All this results in our assessment that revenue growth will be mid-single digits (our model is at 5% vs. Street was at 2%),” Daryanani wrote.
Admittedly, it’s not just about the December quarter, he noted.
“Eventually the question will be on durability of demand beyond Dec-qtr and the impact from macro not just on iPhones but also services,” Daryanani wrote, though he likes Apple’s long-term potential to grow sales at a mid- or high-single-digit clip and grow earnings at a mid- to low-teens rate.
He rates the stock at outperform with a $190 target.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that Apple was “the one bright spot” amid “a horror show week for Big Tech earnings.”
“Given the perfect storm of currency/macro this quarter, we would characterize Apple’s results and commentary around the December quarter as net bullish around underlying demand and help throw out the noise that iPhone 14 upgrades are slowing in this cycle,” he wrote, while keeping an outperform rating but cutting his price target to $200 from $220 to reflect a lower multiple.
The latest results could help change what Citi Research analyst Jim Suva said was a relatively negative attitude towards Apple’s stock when compared to the rest of Big Tech.
“The amount of investor negativity on mega-cap tech stocks, especially Apple, is well known as recent surveys show Apple as the least favored stock amongst its peers,” he wrote. “Yes there are valid concerns of electronic retailers working down inventory and consumers having less disposable income given inflation but we believe consumers will adjust their spending allocations and continue to spend on Apple’s growing platform of products and services.”
He rates the stock a buy with a $175 price target, down from $185 before.
Barclays analyst Tim Long stayed more cautious.
“Stepping back from the print, things get tougher heading into Dec-Q and beyond and we maintain our [equal-weight] rating, mainly on headwinds sustaining current demand levels as high-end consumers potentially weaken, tougher comps on Mac, Services weakening further, regulatory overhang (App Store, Google TAC), macro impacting digital advertising as well as a rich valuation,” he wrote as he bumped his price target up by a dollar to $156.
Whether that plays out in the shares is another question.
“Near term, we expect heightened macro uncertainty to remain an overhang for the stock, although some may view AAPL as a relative safe haven in the macro storm,” Long continued.
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Apple stock surges toward best day since 2020 as it’s dubbed rare ‘bright spot’ amid Big Tech ‘carnage’
[ad_1]
Which Big Tech company is not like the others?
Apparently it’s Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+7.56% ,
which is set to become the only mega-cap technology company not to see a sharp post-earnings decline in its stock price this week, after the smartphone giant delivered a somewhat mixed earnings report but seemed to reassure Wall Street just enough about the state of its demand.Read: Apple earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones
The stock was up 7.6% in Friday morning trading and on track to log its largest single-day percentage gain since July 31, 2020, when it increased 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Apple is “the bright spot amid mega-cap carnage,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers, as Apple topped expectations with its headline results despite the backdrop of “a lot of macro/geopolitical uncertainties” as well as foreign-exchange pressures.
While Apple fell short with its iPhone sales numbers for the September quarter, Rakers noted that the company has been constrained by supply for its Pro models. At the same time, he noted that Mac revenue easily exceeded the consensus view, which supported his thesis that “Apple is solidly positioned as share taker in PCs.”
He further pointed out that Apple results were burdened by a deeper-than-expected impact from foreign exchange. But “look past the FX headwinds & you’ll see why everyone is hiding in Apple,” he said.
Rakers rates the stock at overweight with a $185 price target.
Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani called Apple “the last FAANG standing.”
“Overall, revenue and EPS estimates will shift higher from current levels and given the broadly disappointing EPS calls from big tech this was an impressive set of numbers and guide,” he wrote in his note to clients.
Though Apple didn’t give formal financial guidance, it offered various pieces of commentary around the December quarter, including that it could see a 10-point headwind from foreign exchange in the period and recognize a “few hundred” basis points of impact from an extra week being added to the quarter, even as Mac revenue is set for a substantial decline.
“All this results in our assessment that revenue growth will be mid-single digits (our model is at 5% vs. Street was at 2%),” Daryanani wrote.
Admittedly, it’s not just about the December quarter, he noted.
“Eventually the question will be on durability of demand beyond Dec-qtr and the impact from macro not just on iPhones but also services,” Daryanani wrote, though he likes Apple’s long-term potential to grow sales at a mid- or high-single-digit clip and grow earnings at a mid- to low-teens rate.
He rates the stock at outperform with a $190 target.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that Apple was “the one bright spot” amid “a horror show week for Big Tech earnings.”
“Given the perfect storm of currency/macro this quarter, we would characterize Apple’s results and commentary around the December quarter as net bullish around underlying demand and help throw out the noise that iPhone 14 upgrades are slowing in this cycle,” he wrote, while keeping an outperform rating but cutting his price target to $200 from $220 to reflect a lower multiple.
The latest results could help change what Citi Research analyst Jim Suva said was a relatively negative attitude towards Apple’s stock when compared to the rest of Big Tech.
“The amount of investor negativity on mega-cap tech stocks, especially Apple, is well known as recent surveys show Apple as the least favored stock amongst its peers,” he wrote. “Yes there are valid concerns of electronic retailers working down inventory and consumers having less disposable income given inflation but we believe consumers will adjust their spending allocations and continue to spend on Apple’s growing platform of products and services.”
He rates the stock a buy with a $175 price target, down from $185 before.
Barclays analyst Tim Long stayed more cautious.
“Stepping back from the print, things get tougher heading into Dec-Q and beyond and we maintain our [equal-weight] rating, mainly on headwinds sustaining current demand levels as high-end consumers potentially weaken, tougher comps on Mac, Services weakening further, regulatory overhang (App Store, Google TAC), macro impacting digital advertising as well as a rich valuation,” he wrote as he bumped his price target up by a dollar to $156.
Whether that plays out in the shares is another question.
“Near term, we expect heightened macro uncertainty to remain an overhang for the stock, although some may view AAPL as a relative safe haven in the macro storm,” Long continued.
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Microsoft stock slammed by cloud-growth fears, taking Amazon down with it
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Microsoft Corp. shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday as the company’s cloud-computing growth hit a sudden deceleration and executives guided for holiday-season revenue to come in more than $2 billion lower than expectations.
The Azure cloud-computing business has grown into the largest and most important business for Microsoft
MSFT,
+1.38% ,
and there have been concerns about cloud growth as the U.S. faces a potential recession for the first time since the technology became ubiquitous. Microsoft executives said that Azure grew by 35% in their fiscal first quarter, a marked slowdown from Azure’s 40% growth rate in the previous quarter, as well as the 50% growth shown in the same quarter last year; analysts on average were expecting 36.5% growth, according to FactSet.Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks
In the current quarter, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood suggested a similar sequential decline is in store for Azure, saying percentage growth should decline by five points on a constant-currency basis. Hood also suggested that more cost cuts could be coming to Microsoft, after the company confirmed layoffs of fewer than 1,000 employees earlier this month.
“While we continue to help our customers do more with less, we will do the same internally,” she said. “And you should expect to see our operating-expense growth moderate materially through the year while we focus on growing productivity of the significant head-count investments we’ve made over the last year.”
Microsoft shares slid to declines of more than 6% in after-hours trading following Hood’s forecast, which was provided in a conference call. Shares closed with a 1.4% increase at $250.66.
Concerns about cloud growth immediately spread to Azure’s biggest competitor, Amazon Web Services, as Amazon.com Inc. stock
AMZN,
+0.65%
fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $17.56 billion, or $2.35 a share, down from $2.71 a share in the same quarter a year ago, when the tech giant disclosed a 44 cent-per-share tax benefit. Revenue increased to $50.1 billion from $45.32 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.31 a share on sales of $49.66 billion, according to FactSet.
For the fiscal second quarter, Hood guided for revenue of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion, while analysts on average were expecting sales of $56.16 billion, according to FactSet. Hood said that “Intelligent Cloud” revenue should land from $21.25 billion to $21.55 billion, while analysts on average were projecting $21.82 billion heading into the print; Microsoft’s other revenue-segment forecasts were even further off analysts’ average expectations.
Microsoft has also suffered from the strengthening dollar, as well as a sharp downturn in personal-computer sales, which spiked during the pandemic but are now showing record regression.
For more: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on
Microsoft reported PC revenue of $13.3 billion for the quarter, roughly flat from $13.31 billion a year before and beating the average analyst estimate of $13.12 billion, according to FactSet. While PCs have long been what consumers largely know Microsoft for, their importance to the company’s financials has declined in recent years as cloud computing has grown in importance.
“Historically, Windows was a very large driver of Microsoft revenue and, given its strong margins, a disproportionate driver of earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a preview of the report, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. “Over time other businesses, especially Microsoft’s commercial Cloud, have grown fast while the Windows business has grown quite slower, decreasing the relative impact of Windows.”
The “Intelligent Cloud” segment reported first-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $16.96 billion a year ago but slightly lower than the average analyst estimate tracked by FactSet of $20.46 billion. Azure’s 35% growth was the slowest Microsoft has reported in records dating back through the prior two fiscal years; Microsoft only reports percentage growth for its Azure cloud-computing product, even as main rivals Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
+0.65%
and Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
+1.91%
GOOG,
+1.90%
report revenue and profit margin for their cloud-computing products.Microsoft’s other revenue segment, “Productivity and Business Processes,” reported revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $15.04 billion a year ago and higher than the average analyst estimate of $16.13 billion, according to FactSet. That segment includes Microsoft’s core cloud-software properties such as its Office suite of products — which is being officially renamed Microsoft 365 — as well as LinkedIn and some other properties.
Microsoft stock has declined 25.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.63%
has dropped 20.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.07%
— which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 13.3%.[ad_2]
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Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls
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Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk suggested the electric-vehicle maker could repurchase up to $10 billion worth of its stock Wednesday, as shares declined following a third-quarter revenue miss and his CFO brought down delivery expectations for the full year.
Some Tesla
TSLA,
+0.84%
investors have been agitating for a stock buyback after multiple stock splits and the company losing more than a third of its market capitalization in 2022, and Musk said in an earnings conference call that Tesla’s board has discussed a buyback in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion.“We debated the buyback idea extensively at board level. The board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback, we want to work through the right process to do a buyback, but it is something possible for us to do a buyback on the order of $5 [billion] to $10 billion even in a downside scenario next year, given next year is very difficult,” he said, adding that it “is obviously pending board review and approval.”
“So it’s likely that we will do some meaningful buyback,” he concluded.
The statement did not immediately move Tesla’s stock, as it was followed closely by a forecast revision from Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who said, “We do expect to be just under 50% growth [for deliveries] due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year.”
Tesla delivered a record number of cars in the third quarter, but still missed analysts’ expectations and made it more difficult to hit executives’ target for the year of an increase of more than 50% in vehicle deliveries. Kirkhorn said that the company will increase production of cars by 50%, “although we are tracking supply-chain risks which are beyond our control.”
Shares declined more than 6% following the car company’s earnings report. Tesla reported third-quarter earnings of $3.29 billion, or 95 cents a share, on sales of $21.45 billion, up from $13.76 billion a year ago. After adjusting for stock-based compensation, the electric-vehicle manufacturer reported earnings of $1.05 a share, up from 62 cents a share a year ago.
Analysts on average were expecting adjusted earnings of $1 a share on sales of $21.98 billion, according to FactSet. Tesla shares declined about 5% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 0.8% increase to $222.04 in the regular trading session.
Tesla shares have fallen more than 37% so far this year, a harder descent than the 22% decline of the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.67% ,
after years of outsize gains. Pundits have put forth a variety of reasons for the downturn, including increasing competition in the EV market, negative press around Tesla’s full-self-driving claims and actual performance, and Musk’s attention being diverted to his attempt to acquire Twitter Inc.
TWTR,
+0.10% .Don’t miss: Market share for electric vehicles expected to roughly double
None of that cowed Musk, however. He predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as the two most valuable companies in the world, Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+0.08%
and Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
2222,
+0.42% ,
combined. Both companies have market capitalizations topping $2 trillion.“Now I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market,” Musk said on the call, after referencing a previous prediction that Tesla would reach Apple’s then-record market cap. “In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will be easy, in fact it will be very difficult, require a lot of work, very creative new products, expansion and always good luck. But for the first time I’m seeing, I see a way for Tesla to be, let’s say roughly twice the value of Saudi Aramco.”
In a preview of the report Tuesday, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said that “the Street is starting to worry that the bloom is coming off the rose in the Tesla story with delivery shortfalls front and center.”
“Between logistical issues in China, supply-chain problems, FSD black-eye moments, the Musk Twitter fiasco and EV competition increasing across the board, there is growing pressure on Musk & Co. to prove themselves,” Ives wrote.
Tesla’s automotive gross margin, which declined in the second quarter despite price increases that Musk called “embarrassing,” were the same sequentially at 27.9%. Operating margin increased both sequentially and year-over-year, however, to 17.2% from 14.6% both in the third quarter a year ago and the previous quarter.
Earnings preview: Do record Tesla deliveries mask a demand problem?
In their communications with investors on Wednesday, Tesla executives disclosed that they will change the process for one of their most challenging tasks of late — transporting cars — in hopes of bringing costs down.
“We are reaching such significant delivery volumes in the final weeks of each quarter that transportation capacity is becoming expensive and difficult to secure. As a result, we began transitioning to a smoother delivery pace, leading to more vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter,” the company’s shareholder deck reads. “We expect that smoothing our outbound logistics throughout the quarter will improve cost per vehicle.”
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These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year
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This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.
Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
SPX,
+2.78%
— that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom
Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
BUFEX,
-2.86%
and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
BUFTX,
-2.82% ,
said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.
Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”
He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”
He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.
Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”
Leaders for the stock market’s recovery
After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”
He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+6.14%
and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+3.69%
were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
ASML,
+3.79% ,
which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+3.09% ,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
+3.88% ,
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
+6.63%
and Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
+3.91% Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
UNH,
+1.77% ,
Danaher Corp.
DHR,
+2.64%
and Linde PLC
LIN,
+2.25%
recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
ADBE,
+2.32%
price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.Summarizing the declines
To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX,
+2.12% ,
which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
+2.29%
of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:
Company Ticker 2022 price change Forward P/E Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021 Apple Inc. AAPL,
+3.09% -22% 22.2 30.2 Adobe Inc. ADBE,
+2.32% -49% 19.4 40.5 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN,
+6.63% -36% 62.1 64.9 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD,
+3.69% -61% 14.7 43.1 ASML Holding N.V. ADR ASML,
+3.79% -52% 22.7 41.2 Danaher Corp. DHR,
+2.64% -23% 24.3 32.1 Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG,
+3.91% -33% 17.5 25.3 Linde PLC LIN,
+2.25% -21% 22.2 29.6 Microsoft Corp. MSFT,
+3.88% -32% 22.5 34.0 Nvidia Corp. NVDA,
+6.14% -62% 28.9 58.0 UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH,
+1.77% 2% 21.5 23.2 Source: FactSet You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.
Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot
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JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares rose Friday after the megabank beat analyst targets for third-quarter profit and revenue and said it would top forecasts for its net interest in come in the coming quarter.
In a busy day for bank earnings, Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
+4.62%
fell short of earnings target but its stock rose in premarket trades as it beat revenue estimates.Morgan Stanley
MS,
+3.55%
shares fell after it missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue.Citigroup Inc.
C,
+5.17%
shares rose after beating its profit mark, although revenue fell 1% after breaking out the impact of divestitures.Overall, banks benefited from higher interest rates and strong trading volumes, but investment banking deal activity fell sharply. Banks also channeled more capital into reserves and away from their collective bottom lines to prepare for a potential economic downturn.
As the largest bank in the U.S. and a bellwether for the sector, JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
+5.56%
turned in a “solid performance” in the latest quarter, in the words of Chief Executive Jamie Dimon.The bank said it expects to meet its capital requirements under the international Basel III banking guidelines and resume stock buybacks early in 2023.
“In the U.S., consumers continue to spend with solid balance sheets, job openings are plentiful and businesses remain healthy,” Dimon said. “However, there are significant headwinds immediately in front of us – stubbornly high inflation leading to higher global interest rates, the uncertain impacts of quantitative tightening, the war in Ukraine, which is increasing all geopolitical risks, and the fragile state of oil supply and prices.”
Dimon said the bank remains “prepared for bad outcomes” so it can continue to operate even in the most challenging times.
Dimon’s prepared statement comes a day after the oft-quoted CEO said the U.S. consumer sector remains strong currently, but inflation will start weighing on people by 2023.
Also Read: JPMorgan CEO Dimon says inflation hasn’t dampened consumer spending yet but give it time
JPMorgan Chase’s stock rose 2.4% ahead of Friday’s open after it said its third-quarter net income fell 16.7% to $9.74 billion, or $3.12 a share, from $11.69 billion, or $3.74 a share, in the year-ago quarter.
Third-quarter revenue at the megabank rose to $32.72 billion from $29.65 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Wall Street analysts expected JPMorgan Chase to earn $2.90 a share on revenue of $32.12 billion, according to estimated compiled by FactSet. T
The bank said a net credit reserve build of $808 million ate into its net income for the latest quarter, compared with a net reserve release of $2.1 billion in the prior year.
Net interest income climbed 34% to $17.6 billion and net interest income excluding its Markets unit rose 51% to $16.9 billion on higher interest rates.
JPMorgan Chase’s total assets under management fell 13% to $2.6 trillion in the face of losses in the equities market and difficult conditions in the bond market.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan Chase said it expects fourth-quarter net interest income of about $19 billion, ahead of the $18.2 billion analyst estimate.
Octavio Marenzi, CEO of management consultant company Opimas said the bank’s results were “surprisingly solid” and if you strip away its payments for loan reserves, its profit is basically unchanged.
“Individual lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgages did predictably badly, but this was more than compensated for by strength in other areas of lending and in trading,” Marenzi said.
Shares of JPMorgan Chase have lost 30.9% in 2022 compared with a 17.3% drop by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+2.83%
and a 23.0% loss by the S&P 500
SPX,
+2.60% .Wells Fargo misses profit target but share rise
Wells Fargo & Co. shares advanced 2% in Friday’s premarket after the bank posted net income of $3.528 billion, or 85 cents a share, for the quarter to end September, down from $5.122 billion, or $1.17 a share, in the year-earlier quarter.
The megabank fell short of the earnings-per-share target of $1.09 a share.
Wells Fargo’s revenue rose to $19.505 billion from $18.834 billion a year ago, ahead of the $18.775 billion FactSet consensus.
Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said performance was “significantly impacted” by $2 billion, or 45 cents a share, in operating losses “related to litigation, customer remediation, and regulatory matters primarily related to a variety of historical matters.”
However, the bank is seeing historically low delinquencies and high payment rates, and the “timing of deterioration in those measures due to high inflation remains unclear. “
The bank set aside $784 million in provisions for loan losses, after reducing them by $1.395 billion a year ago.
Net interest income rose 36%, while noninterest income fell 25%, as mortgage banking income declined.
Citi analyst Keith Horowitz said Wells Fargo turned in a “good” quarter overall, although larger-than-expected one-time charges and a reserve build reduced profits. But Wells Fargo also raised its outlook for net interest income “and we still see upside to 2023 consensus,” Horowitz said.
Shares of Wells Fargo have declined 12% in the year to date.
Morgan Stanley shares fall on results
Morgan Stanley fell 2.6% in premarket trades after the investment bank missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue amid a drop in deal activity.
Morgan Stanley said its third-quarter net income fell to $2.49 billion, or $1.47 per share, from net income of $3.7 billion, or $1.98 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Third-quarter revenue dropped to $12.99 billion from $14.75 billion.
Wall Street analysts were looking for earnings of $1.52 a share and revenue of $13.29 billion, according to FactSet data.
“Firm performance was resilient and balanced in an uncertain and difficult environment, delivering a 15% return on tangible common equity,” said CEO James Gorman. “Wealth Management added an additional $65 billion in net new assets and produced a pre-tax margin of 28%, excluding integration-related expenses, demonstrating scale and stability despite declining asset values.”
Morgan Stanley shares have lost 19.2% in 2022.
Citi beats targets but shares lose ground
Citigroup shares fell 1.3% in premarket trades Friday after the bank posted stronger-than-expected profit, but revenue fell 1% after breaking out divestiture-related impacts, as growth in net interest income was more than offset by lower non-interest revenue.
Citi said its third-quarter net income dropped to $3.5 billion, or $1.63 per share, from $4.6 billion, or $2.15 a share, in the year-ago quarter.
Excluding divestiture-related impacts, earnings were $1.50 a share.
Total revenue increased to $18.5 billion from $17.4 billion.
Analysts were looking for earnings of $1.42 a share and revenue of $18.26 billion for Citigroup, according to a FactSet survey.
Citi said it continues to shrink its operations in Russia, and expects to end nearly all of the institutional banking services offered in the country next quarter. “To be clear, our intention is to wind down our presence in this country,” Chief Executive Jane Fraser said.
Shares of Citigroup have dropped 28.9% in 2022.
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Ford stock is now a ‘sell’ at UBS as an oversupply problem looms
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Shares of Ford Motor Co. were hit hard Monday by UBS analyst Patrick Hummel’s recommendation that investors sell, as the auto industry is facing a worrisome U-turn from undersupply to oversupply.
Hummel also cut his ratings on several other global auto makers, including General Motors Co.
GM,
-5.59% ,
saying that as a recession concerns grow, “demand destruction is no longer a vague risk.”In addition to all of the data suggesting the economy is slowing, Hummel said growing U.S. dealer inventories, weak used-car pricing, used-car dealer profit warnings and signs indicating deteriorating orders and shorter delivery times make him more cautious on the overall auto industry.
“We think it will only take 3-6 months for the auto industry to end up in oversupply, which will put an abrupt end to a 3-year phase of unprecedented OEM [original equipment manufacturer] pricing power and margins,” Hummel wrote in a note to clients.
As part of his negative industry outlook, he cut his rating on Ford
F,
-7.38%
to sell from neutral and his stock price target to $10 from $13, with the new target implying about 11% downside from current levels.Ford’s stock sank 7.6% in morning trading. It was trading up just 0.6% month to date, after plunging 26.5% in September to suffer its worst monthly performance since it plummeted 30.6% during pandemic-stricken March 2020.
Hummel noted that Ford has already warned about having more vehicles in inventory than expected, and above payments to suppliers running about $1 billion higher than projected, so he sees little margin left for negative surprises in terms of fourth-quarter deliveries and supply costs.
Hummel cut his 2023 adjusted earnings-per-share estimate by 61% to 52 cents a share, to reflect a $6.5 billion drop in price and sales mix. The compares with the current 2023 FactSet EPS consensus of $1.87.
“This sounds very negative, but Ford gains $19 billion in price alone since the beginning of 2020,” Hummel wrote.
Also read: Ford again raises price of F-150 Lightning electric pickup.
Read more: Ford September sales fall as drop in trucks offsets near tripling in EVs.
Meanwhile, GM’s stock dove 6.9% in morning trading toward a three-month low, and shares have shed 2.5% so far this month after tumbling 16% last month.
Hummel downgraded GM to neutral from buy, and dropped his price target by 32%, to $38 from $56.
The rating remains above Ford’s, because unlike its rival, Hummel noted that GM has had “no hiccups” in its third-quarter production schedule and therefore a “solid” quarterly report is expected. However, the downgrade reflects the fact that GM is “not immune” to a downturn in the industry.
Separately, Hummel also cut his stock-price target on Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-0.16%
to $350 from $367, saying that following a third-quarter volume report that was below expectations, it will be “more challenging” for the electric-vehicle maker to meet its 2022 delivery growth target.However, Hummel reiterated his buy rating on Tesla, as he believes the EV maker is best positioned to use pricing as the tool to fill its factories.
“Overall, the recession outlook should result in moderately lower margins for Tesla than previously expected, but we’re highly confident that by keeping the top line [revenue] momentum, Tesla will even widen the gap vs. competitors in terms of profitability,” Hummel wrote.
Ford’s stock has fallen 3% over the past three months, while GM shares have lost 3.1% and Tesla’s stock has dropped 11.8%. In comparison, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-1.08%
has declined 7.5% the past three months.Among other auto makers, he also downgraded both Renault SA
RNO,
+2.41% RNLSY,
+1.17%
and Volkswagen AG
VOW,
-3.29%
to neutral from buy. He also downgraded auto parts makers Continental AG
CON,
+0.10%
and Faurecia SE
EO,
-3.77% FURCF,
-3.67%
to neutral from buy.[ad_2]
