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Delta Air Lines
beat earnings estimates in the fourth quarter as air travel demand remained strong but the stock fell in early trading Friday as the carrier’s first quarter guidance disappointed.
The airline (ticker: DAL) reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.48 in the fourth quarter, and revenue of $12.3 billion, an 8% increase on the same period in 2019.
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European Union officials were working Wednesday to coordinate a response to China’s current surge of COVID cases and were likely to agree on travel restrictions that may upset both Beijing and airlines.
The Chinese government has already slammed the countries that have imposed a COVID test requirement on passengers from China and has threatened countermeasures if more are introduced, the Associated Press reported.
EU Commission spokesman Tim McPhie said Wednesday that most EU nations are in favor of testing prior to departure and are seeking an official position later in the day.
There are concerns that China’s wave may allow for new, potentially more evasive and risky variants of the coronavirus to emerge, although so far, data are showing the variants circulating in China are already in Europe.
See also: Isolated and humiliated, Russia is biggest geopolitical threat of 2023: Eurasia Group
On Wednesday the International Air Transport Association, which represents some 300 airlines worldwide, lent its powerful voice to the protests.
“It is extremely disappointing to see this knee-jerk reinstatement of measures that have proven ineffective over the last three years,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
“Research undertaken around the arrival of the omicron variant concluded that putting barriers in the way of travel made no difference to the peak spread of infections. At most, restrictions delayed that peak by a few days,” Walsh said.
EU nations are also expected to agree to test wastewater from planes flying in from China to determine whether it contains variants that are not yet prevalent in Europe.
In the U.S., the seven-day average for new COVID cases has continued to fall and stood at 60,417 on Tuesday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 10% from two weeks ago and below the recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve.
The daily average for hospitalizations was up 8% to 44,504. The average for deaths was 310, down 24% from two weeks ago.
The New York Times tracker notes there is reason to believe current case and death counts could be artificially low, as the people who track those numbers take time off around the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Hospitalization data are not typically affected by holiday reporting breaks.
The number of patients with COVID in intensive-care units rose 11% in two weeks, to 5,350. Meanwhile, the test-positivity rate climbed to 16% and has increased by 25% over the past two weeks. Higher test-positivity rates suggest many new COVID cases are not being counted, as results of at-home testing may not be reported to case trackers.
Overall, cases are currently rising in 17 states, led by Mississippi, where they have climbed 78% from two weeks ago. Measured on a per-capita basis, New Jersey and New York are faring the worst, along with several southern states, including Virginia, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• Shares of Lucira Health Inc.
LHDX,
more than quadrupled Tuesday after it submitted an application for emergency-use authorization to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for over-the-counter use of a molecular COVID-19 and flu test, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The test was granted emergency-use authorization for point-of-care use in a healthcare setting in November. The company now “intends to make the test broadly available to consumers both online as well as in pharmacies.”
• Salesforce Inc.
CRM,
has become the latest big tech player to say it hired too aggressively during the COVID pandemic; it is now planning to lay off about 10% of its workforce, MarketWatch’s Emily Bary reported. The company will also exit some real estate and cut back on office space, it disclosed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The plan is aimed at reducing operating costs, boosting operating margins and driving “profitable growth.” “As our revenue accelerated through the pandemic, we hired too many people leading into this economic downturn we’re now facing, and I take responsibility for that,” the company’s co-chief executive, Marc Benioff, said in a letter to employees that was also filed with the SEC. The company had 73,541 employees as of Jan. 31, 2022, according to its last annual filing with the SEC.
Read: Here are the companies in the layoffs spotlight; Salesforce joins Intel, Google, HP, Amazon, Cisco
• Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
has gone from being a COVID darling to a “show-me” launch story, according to Bank of America analysts, who downgraded the stock to neutral from buy on Wednesday, citing declining COVID revenues and uncertainty about how new products will perform. Analysts are expecting revenue from Pfizer’s COVID vaccine Comirnaty and its antiviral Paxlovid to decline by about $32 billion from 2022, wider than the consensus number of a decline of $25 billion. “While new launches can partially address the $17 billion LOE (loss of exclusivity) hole in 2025 to 2030, longer term growth is unclear,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 666.8 million on Tuesday, while the death toll rose above 6.69 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 100.8 million cases and 1,094,010 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 229.1 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 47 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 15.1% of the overall population.
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Southwest Airlines continued to extract itself from sustained scheduling chaos Thursday, cancelling another 2,350 flights after a winter storm overwhelmed its operations days ago.
The Dallas carrier acknowledged it has inadequate and outdated operations technology that can leave flight crews out of position when adverse weather strikes.
Southwest
LUV,
was the only airline unable to recover from storm-related delays that began over the weekend when snow, ice and high winds raked portions of the country.
As has been the case every day this week, the vast majority of flight cancellations nationwide, are Southwest flights.
There were 2,451 flights cancelled before noon Thursday in the U.S., and 2,357 were Southwest routes, or about 58% of its entire schedule, according to the FlightAware tracking service.
The airline has warned that cancellations will continue for days.
The federal government is investigating what happened at Southwest with total cancellations soaring past 10,000 early in the week.
Southwest added a page to their website specifically for travelers who were stranded, but thousands of customers remain unable to reach the airline.
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DALLAS — Travelers who counted on Southwest Airlines to get them home suffered another wave of canceled flights Wednesday, and pressure grew on the federal government to help customers get reimbursed for unexpected expenses they incurred because of the airline’s meltdown.
Exhausted Southwest
LUV,
travelers tried finding seats on other airlines or renting cars to get to their destination, but many remained stranded. The airline’s CEO said it could be next week before the flight schedule returns to normal.
Adontis Barber, a 34-year-old jazz pianist from Kansas City, Missouri, had camped out in the city’s airport since his Southwest flight was canceled Saturday and wondered if he would ever get to a New Year’s gig in Washington, D.C.
“I give up,” he said. “I’m starting to feel homeless.”
By early afternoon on the East Coast, about 90% of all canceled flights Wednesday in the U.S. were on Southwest, according to the FlightAware tracking service.
Other airlines recovered from ferocious winter storms that hit large swaths of the country over the weekend, but not Southwest, which scrubbed 2,500 flights Wednesday and 2,300 more on Thursday.
The Dallas airline was undone by a combination of factors including an antiquated crew-scheduling system and a network design that allows cancellations in one region to cascade throughout the country rapidly. Those weaknesses are not new — they helped cause a similar failure by Southwest in October 2021.
The federal government is now investigating what happened at Southwest, which carries more passengers within the United States than any other airline.
In a video that Southwest posted late Tuesday, CEO Robert Jordan said Southwest would operate a reduced schedule for several days but hoped to be “back on track before next week.”
Jordan blamed the winter storm for snarling the airline’s “highly complex” network. He said Southwest’s tools for recovering from disruptions work “99% of the time, but clearly we need to double down” on upgrading systems to avoid a repeat of this week.
“We have some real work to do in making this right,” said Jordan, a 34-year Southwest veteran who became CEO in February. “For now, I want you to know that we are committed to that.”
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has criticized airlines for previous disruptions, said that “meltdown” was the only word he could think of to describe this week’s events at Southwest. He noted that while cancellations across the rest of the industry declined to about 4% of scheduled flights, they remained above 60% at Southwest.
From the high rate of cancellations to customers’ inability to reach Southwest on the phone, the airline’s performance has been unacceptable, Buttigieg said. He vowed to hold the airline accountable and push it to reimburse travelers.
“They need to make sure that those stranded passengers get to where they need to go and that they are provided adequate compensation,” including for missed flights, hotels and meals, he said Wednesday on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”
On its website, Southwest told customers affected by canceled or delayed flights between Dec. 24 and Jan. 2 to submit receipts. The airline said, “We will honor reasonable requests for reimbursement for meals, hotel, and alternate transportation.”
Navy physician Lt. Cmdr. Manoj Mathew said after spending hours on hold over two days Southwest reimbursed him for the first leg of his family’s trip from Washington to Houston — they drove through terrible weather after the Dec. 23 flight was canceled. Now he is worried whether Southwest will operate the return flight Sunday.
“I’m trying to reach other airlines,” he said. “There are no flights, plus it’s very expensive for us.”
Leaders of Southwest’s labor unions have warned for years that the airline’s crew-scheduling system, which dates to the 1990s, was inadequate, and the CEO acknowledged this week that the technology needs to be upgraded.
The other large U.S. airlines use “hub and spoke” networks in which flights radiate out from a few major or hub airports. That helps limit the reach of disruptions caused by bad weather in part of the country.
Southwest, however, has a “point to point” network in which planes crisscross the country during the day. This can increase the utilization and efficiency of each plane, but problems in one place can ripple across the country and leave crews trapped out of position.
Those issues don’t explain all the complaints that stranded travelers made about Southwest, including no ability to reach the airline on the phone and a lack of help with hotels and meals.
Teal Williams, a 48-year-old active-duty Army reservist from Utah, was stuck at the Denver airport with her husband and two teenage kids on Christmas Day after their flight to Des Moines, Iowa, was canceled. She said Southwest employees had no information about flights and didn’t offer food vouchers while elderly passengers sat in wheelchairs for hours and mothers ran out of formula for their infants.
“It was just imploding, and no one could tell you anything,” Williams said. The airline employees “were desperately trying to help, but you could tell they were just as clueless as everybody else … it was scary.”
Unable to find plane, train or bus seats, Williams and her family felt lucky to score a rental car. They drove 12 hours to Iowa.
Barber, the musician from Kansas City, already missed a performance Sunday in Dallas but had hoped to make it to Washington in time for a New Year’s performance near the National Mall.
“I’m missing out on money,” he lamented.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-tesla-alibaba-southwest-51671810917
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Southwest Airlines Co. canceled more than two-thirds of its flights Monday and plans to slash its schedules Tuesday and Wednesday, in a meltdown that stranded thousands of customers and that worsened while other airlines began to recover from the holiday winter storm.
“We had a tough day today. In all likelihood we’ll have another tough day tomorrow as we work our way out of this,” Chief Executive Bob Jordan said in an interview Monday evening. “This is the largest scale event that I’ve ever seen.”
Southwest
LUV,
plans to operate just over one-third of its typical schedule in the coming days to give itself leeway for crews to get into the right positions, he said, adding that the reduced schedule could be extended.
Southwest’s more than 2,800 scrapped flights Monday, the highest of any major U.S. airline, came as the Dallas-based airline proved unable to stabilize its operations amid the past week’s storm. Between Thursday and Monday, the airline canceled about 8,000 flights, according to FlightAware.
On Monday, the Department of Transportation called Southwest’s rate of cancellations “disproportionate and unacceptable” and said it would examine whether the cancellations were controllable and whether the airline is complying with its customer service plan.
Ryan Green, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, said in an interview the airline is taking steps such as covering customers’ reasonable travel costs—including hotels, rental cars and tickets on other airlines, and will be communicating the process for customers to have expenses reimbursed. He also said customers whose flights are being canceled as the airline recovers are entitled to refunds if they opt not to travel.
The troubles at Southwest intensified Monday despite generally improving weather conditions and warming temperatures throughout much of the eastern half of the country, which had been pummeled by snow, wind and subfreezing temperatures in recent days.
An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.
Trending at WSJ.com:
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Delta Air Lines’ stock rose 4.7% before market open on Wednesday after the company raised its earnings guidance.
The carrier
DAL,
said it is executing on its three-year recovery plan, with year-one results ahead of expectations. Delta also highlighted robust demand for air travel as the industry recovers from the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The carrier raised its 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.07 to $3.12. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of $2.88 a share. For 2023, Delta Air Lines Inc. forecast a near doubling of adjusted earnings to $5 to $6 a share.
See Now: After too little, too much, there are ‘Goldilocks’ conditions for air travel in 2023
Delta also forecast 2023 revenue growth at 15% to 20% compared with 2022 and said it is on track to meet its 2024 earnings target of more than $7 a share. “Demand for air travel remains robust as we exit the year and Delta’s momentum is building,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian, in a statement.
Delta said it expects to deliver strong topline growth in 2023 and significant operating leverage, boosted by a full restoration of its network and continued improvements in premium and loyalty revenue.
Non-fuel unit costs are expected to decline 5% to 7%, driving Delta’s margin expansion and adjusted earnings growth, the company said. Delta expects to generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow, which it said will enable further debt reduction.
See Now: Delta kicked off airline earnings season with a bang. What does it mean for other carriers?
“2022 is proving to be a pivotal year as we rebuild the world’s best-performing airline,” said Bastian, in the statement.
The company’s robust guidance boosted other airline stocks before market open, with United Airlines Holdings Inc.
UAL,
rising 1.4%, American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL,
gaining 1.3%, and JetBlue Airways Corp.
JBLU,
rising 1.3%.
Delta shares have fallen 14.6% this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s
SPX,
decline of 15.7% and the U.S Global Jets ETF’s
JETS,
slump of 14.3%.
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Following a sharp and sustained rise in interest rates, U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating this year.
But 2023 may bring very different circumstances.
Below are lists of analysts’ favorite stocks among the benchmark S&P 500
SPX,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
MID
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
SML
that are expected to rise the most over the next year. Those lists are followed by a summary of opinions of all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA.
Stocks rallied on Dec. 13 when the November CPI report showed a much slower inflation pace than economists had expected. Investors were also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee’s next monetary policy announcement on Dec. 14. The consensus among economists polled by FactSet is for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
Read: 5 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest-rate decision
A 0.50% increase would be a slowdown from the four previous increases of 0.75%. The rate began 2022 in a range of zero to 0.25%, where it had sat since March 2020.
A pivot for the Fed Reserve and the possibility that the federal funds rate will reach its “terminal” rate (the highest for this cycle) in the near term could set the stage for a broad rally for stocks in 2023.
Among the S&P 500, 92 stocks are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts working for brokerage firms. That number itself is interesting — at the end of 2021, 93 of the S&P 500 had this distinction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 16% in 2022, with all sectors down except for energy, which has risen 53%, and the utilities sector, which his risen 1% (both excluding dividends).
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, based on consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| EQT Corp. | EQT | Oil and Gas Production | $36.91 | $59.70 | 62% | 78% | 69% |
| Catalent Inc. | CTLT | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.42 | 59% | 75% | -64% |
| Amazon.com Inc. | AMZN | Internet Retail | $90.55 | $136.02 | 50% | 91% | -46% |
| Global Payments Inc. | GPN | Misc. Commercial Services | $99.64 | $147.43 | 48% | 75% | -26% |
| Signature Bank | SBNY | Regional Banks | $122.73 | $180.44 | 47% | 78% | -62% |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A | BIO | Medical Specialties | $418.28 | $591.00 | 41% | 100% | -45% |
| Zoetis Inc. Class A | ZTS | Pharmaceuticals | $152.86 | $212.80 | 39% | 87% | -37% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | DAL | Airlines | $34.77 | $48.31 | 39% | 90% | -11% |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. | FANG | Oil and Gas Production | $134.21 | $182.33 | 36% | 84% | 24% |
| Caesars Entertainment Inc | CZR | Casinos/ Gaming | $50.27 | $67.79 | 35% | 81% | -46% |
| Alphabet Inc. Class A | GOOGL | Internet Software/ Services | $93.31 | $125.70 | 35% | 92% | -36% |
| Halliburton Co. | HAL | Oilfield Services/ Equipment | $34.30 | $45.95 | 34% | 86% | 50% |
| Alaska Air Group Inc. | ALK | Airlines | $45.75 | $61.08 | 34% | 93% | -12% |
| Targa Resources Corp. | TRGP | Gas Distributors | $70.42 | $93.95 | 33% | 95% | 35% |
| Charles River Laboratories International Inc. | CRL | Misc. Commercial Services | $201.94 | $269.25 | 33% | 88% | -46% |
| ServiceNow Inc. | NOW | Information Technology Services | $401.64 | $529.83 | 32% | 92% | -38% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. | TTWO | Software | $102.61 | $135.04 | 32% | 79% | -42% |
| EOG Resources Inc. | EOG | Oil and Gas Production | $124.06 | $158.24 | 28% | 82% | 40% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | LUV | Airlines | $38.94 | $49.56 | 27% | 76% | -9% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Most of the companies on the S&P 500 list expected to soar in 2023 have seen large declines in 2022. But the company at the top of the list, EQT Corp.
EQT,
is an exception. The stock has risen 69% in 2022 and is expected to add another 62% over the next 12 months. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to double during 2023 (in part from its expected acquisition of THQ), after nearly a four-fold EPS increase in 2022.
Shares of Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
are expected to soar 50% over the next year, following a decline of 46% so far in 2022. If the shares were to rise 50% from here to the price target of $136.02, they would still be 18% below their closing price of 166.72 at the end of 2021.
Read: Here’s why Amazon is Citi’s top internet stock idea
You can see the earnings estimates and more for any stock in this article by clicking on its ticker.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The lists of favored stocks are limited to those covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among components of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, there are 84 stocks with at least 75% “buy” ratings. Here at the 20 expected to rise the most over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ARWR | Biotechnology | $31.85 | $69.69 | 119% | 83% | -52% |
| Lantheus Holdings Inc. | LNTH | Medical Specialties | $54.92 | $102.00 | 86% | 100% | 90% |
| Progyny Inc. | PGNY | Misc. Commercial Services | $31.21 | $55.57 | 78% | 100% | -38% |
| Coherent Corp. | COHR | Electronic Equipment/ Instruments | $35.41 | $60.56 | 71% | 84% | -48% |
| Exelixis Inc. | EXEL | Biotechnology | $16.08 | $26.07 | 62% | 81% | -12% |
| Darling Ingredients Inc. | DAR | Food: Specialty/ Candy | $61.17 | $97.36 | 59% | 93% | -12% |
| Perrigo Co. PLC | PRGO | Pharmaceuticals | $31.83 | $49.25 | 55% | 100% | -18% |
| Mattel Inc. | MAT | Recreational Products | $17.39 | $26.58 | 53% | 87% | -19% |
| ACI Worldwide Inc. | ACIW | Software | $20.75 | $31.40 | 51% | 83% | -40% |
| Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. | MODG | Recreational Products | $21.99 | $32.91 | 50% | 83% | -20% |
| Dycom Industries Inc. | DY | Engineering and Construction | $86.03 | $128.13 | 49% | 100% | -8% |
| Travel + Leisure Co. | TNL | Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines | $37.98 | $56.00 | 47% | 75% | -31% |
| Frontier Communications Parent Inc. | FYBR | Telecommunications | $25.21 | $36.18 | 44% | 82% | -15% |
| Manhattan Associates Inc. | MANH | Software | $120.06 | $171.80 | 43% | 88% | -23% |
| MP Materials Corp Class A | MP | Other Metals/ Minerals | $31.39 | $44.79 | 43% | 92% | -31% |
| Lumentum Holdings Inc. | LITE | Electrical Products | $54.45 | $76.44 | 40% | 76% | -49% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corp. | THC | Hospital/ Nursing Management | $44.22 | $62.00 | 40% | 80% | -46% |
| Repligen Corp. | RGEN | Pharmaceuticals | $166.88 | $233.10 | 40% | 82% | -37% |
| STAAR Surgical Co. | STAA | Medical Specialties | $59.57 | $82.67 | 39% | 82% | -35% |
| Carlisle Cos. Inc. | CSL | Building Products | $251.99 | $348.33 | 38% | 75% | 2% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Among companies in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, 91 are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts. Here are the 20 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| UniQure NV | QURE | Biotechnology | $22.99 | $51.29 | 123% | 95% | 11% |
| Cara Therapeutics Inc. | CARA | Biotechnology | $11.34 | $23.63 | 108% | 88% | -7% |
| Vir Biotechnology Inc. | VIR | Biotechnology | $25.50 | $53.00 | 108% | 75% | -39% |
| Dynavax Technologies Corp. | DVAX | Biotechnology | $11.22 | $23.20 | 107% | 100% | -20% |
| Thryv Holdings Inc. | THRY | Advertising/ Marketing Services | $18.40 | $36.75 | 100% | 100% | -55% |
| Artivion Inc. | AORT | Medical Specialties | $12.93 | $23.13 | 79% | 83% | -36% |
| Cytokinetics Inc. | CYTK | Pharmaceuticals | $38.33 | $67.43 | 76% | 100% | -16% |
| Harsco Corp. | HSC | Environmental Services | $7.17 | $12.30 | 72% | 80% | -57% |
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. | LGND | Pharmaceuticals | $64.80 | $110.83 | 71% | 100% | -35% |
| Corcept Therapeutics Inc. | CORT | Pharmaceuticals | $20.84 | $34.20 | 64% | 80% | 5% |
| Payoneer Global Inc. | PAYO | Misc. Commercial Services | $5.70 | $9.33 | 64% | 100% | -22% |
| Xencor Inc. | XNCR | Biotechnology | $28.69 | $46.71 | 63% | 93% | -28% |
| Pacira Biosciences Inc. | PCRX | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.90 | 60% | 80% | -24% |
| BioLife Solutions Inc. | BLFS | Chemicals | $19.72 | $31.38 | 59% | 89% | -47% |
| Customers Bancorp Inc. | CUBI | Regional Banks | $30.00 | $47.63 | 59% | 75% | -54% |
| ModivCare Inc. | MODV | Other Transportation | $92.22 | $145.83 | 58% | 100% | -38% |
| Stride Inc. | LRN | Consumer Services | $32.56 | $51.25 | 57% | 100% | -2% |
| Ranger Oil Corp. Class A | ROCC | Oil and Gas Production | $36.98 | $58.00 | 57% | 100% | 37% |
| Outfront Media Inc. | OUT | Real Estate Investment Trusts | $17.59 | $27.00 | 53% | 83% | -34% |
| Walker & Dunlop Inc. | WD | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $82.22 | $125.20 | 52% | 100% | -46% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Here are all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ranked by how much analysts expect their prices to rise over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Walt Disney Co. | DIS | Movies/ Entertainment | $94.66 | $119.60 | 26% | 82% | -39% |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | Telecommunications Equipment | $144.49 | $173.70 | 20% | 74% | -19% |
| Verizon Communications Inc. | VZ | Telecommunications | $37.95 | $44.60 | 18% | 21% | -27% |
| Visa Inc. Class A | V | Misc.s Commercial Services | $214.59 | $249.33 | 16% | 86% | -1% |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | Software | $252.51 | $293.06 | 16% | 91% | -25% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Integrated Oil | $169.75 | $191.20 | 13% | 54% | 45% |
| Cisco Systems Inc. | CSCO | Information Technology Services | $49.30 | $53.76 | 9% | 44% | -22% |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc. | UNH | Managed Health Care | $545.86 | $593.30 | 9% | 85% | 9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | GS | Investment Banks/ Brokers | $363.18 | $392.63 | 8% | 59% | -5% |
| Walmart Inc. | WMT | Specialty Stores | $148.02 | $159.86 | 8% | 72% | 2% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | JPM | Banks | $134.21 | $143.84 | 7% | 59% | -15% |
| Home Depot Inc. | HD | Home Improvement Chains | $327.98 | $346.61 | 6% | 61% | -21% |
| American Express Co. | AXP | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $157.31 | $164.57 | 5% | 43% | -4% |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Restaurants | $276.62 | $288.67 | 4% | 72% | 3% |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Pharmaceuticals | $177.84 | $185.35 | 4% | 36% | 4% |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO | Beverages: Non-Alcoholic | $63.97 | $66.62 | 4% | 73% | 8% |
| Boeing Co. | BA | Aerospace and Defense | $186.27 | $192.69 | 3% | 77% | -7% |
| Intel Corp. | INTC | Semiconductors | $28.69 | $29.54 | 3% | 13% | -44% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA | Drugstore Chains | $41.06 | $42.24 | 3% | 17% | -21% |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | MRK | Pharmaceuticals | $108.97 | $110.62 | 2% | 65% | 42% |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | Trucks/ Construction/ Farm Machinery | $233.06 | $236.23 | 1% | 41% | 13% |
| Honeywell International Inc. | HON | Aerospace and Defense | $214.50 | $217.35 | 1% | 54% | 3% |
| Nike Inc. Class B | NKE | Apparel/ Footwear | $112.07 | $112.58 | 0% | 64% | -33% |
| 3M Co. | MMM | Industrial Conglomerates | $126.85 | $127.30 | 0% | 5% | -29% |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Household/ Personal Care | $152.47 | $150.22 | -1% | 59% | -7% |
| Travelers Companies Inc. | TRV | Multi-Line Insurance | $187.11 | $184.24 | -2% | 18% | 20% |
| Amgen Inc. | AMGN | Biotechnology | $276.78 | $264.79 | -4% | 24% | 23% |
| Dow Inc. | DOW | Chemicals | $51.11 | $48.73 | -5% | 15% | -10% |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM | Information Technology Services | $149.21 | $140.29 | -6% | 33% | 12% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Don’t miss: 10 Dividend Aristocrat stocks expected by analysts to rise up to 54% in 2023
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.
Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.
Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.
The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.
“If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”
But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.
In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.
November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.
Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.
In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
HSI,
finish with a 4.5% gain.
See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID
Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.
Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.
––Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.
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More than 253,000 coronavirus cases have been found in China in the past three weeks and the daily average is rising, the government said Tuesday, the Associated Press reported.
The trend is putting pressure on officials who are trying to ease economic disruption by easing strict controls that have confined millions of people to their homes.
China is the only major country in the world still trying to curb virus transmissions through strict lockdown measures and mass testing. The ruling Communist Party promised earlier this month to reduce disruptions from its “zero- COVID” strategy by making controls more flexible, but so far, progress has been slow.
Beijing, which announced its first COVID death in about six months over the weekend, has locked down parks, populous districts, stores and offices and many school kids have resumed online learning.
The past week’s average of 22,200 daily cases is double the previous week’s rate, the official China News Service reported, citing the National Bureau of Disease Prevention and Control.
On Tuesday, the government reported 28,127 cases found over the past 24 hours, including 25,902 with no symptoms. Almost one-third, or 9,022, were in Guangdong province, the heartland of export-oriented manufacturing adjacent to Hong Kong.
In the U.S., known cases of COVID are rising again with the daily average standing at 41,530 on Monday, according to a New York Times tracker, up 4% from two weeks ago.
Don’t miss: Confused about COVID boosters? Here’s what the science and the experts say about the new generation of shots.
Cases are rising in 24 states, plus Washington, D.C., Guam and Puerto Rico. Washington state has replaced Nebraska as leader by new cases, which have climbed 423% from two weeks ago. That’s followed by Arizona, where they are up 110% and California, up 60%.
The daily average for hospitalizations was down 1% at 27,547, but again, the trend is not uniform across the U.S. Hospitalizations are up 60% in Alaska, up 47% in Arizona and up 30% in Wyoming.
The daily average for deaths is down 2% to 294.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• Japan approved an antiviral pill from Shionogi & Co.
4507,
to treat COVID after the company provided new data to show the drug’s efficacy, the Wall Street Journal reported. The treatment is the first locally developed alternative to Pfizer Inc.’s
PFE,
Paxlovid and Merck & Co.’s
MRK,
Lagevrio, which have been authorized for emergency use in Japan. Shionogi aims to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration for its pill in the U.S. Osaka-based Shionogi filed in February for emergency approval for the drug, known as Xocova, in Japan. The health ministry panel said in July it needed to see results from a larger human trial because data submitted at the time didn’t sufficiently show improvements in symptoms associated with COVID.
• Dubai International Airport passenger numbers surpassed pre-COVID pandemic levels in the third quarter of 2022, the airport’s chief executive said, causing the airport to revise its annual forecast by another 1 million passengers, the AP reported. Paul Griffiths, who oversees the world’s busiest airport, told the Associated Press the annual forecast at Dubai International, or DXB, is more than 64 million. The airport saw 18.5 million passengers in the third quarter of this year, up from 17.8 million during the first quarter of 2020—prior to and at the dawn of the pandemic.
• Get ready for long lines at U.S. airports and traffic jams galore—just like old times. Airports and roads may be “jam-packed” this year, according to the AAA. It estimates that 53.6 million people will travel for the Thanksgiving weekend, reaching 98% of pre-pandemic Thanksgiving travel. “Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president, AAA Travel. “Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you’re driving or flying.”
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 638.5 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.62 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 98.4 million cases and 1,077,225 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 228.2 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.7% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 35.3 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 11.3% of the overall population.
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Shares of Chinese travel and consumer companies gained ground in Hong Kong after Beijing eased some Covid-19 restrictions, improving the outlook for sectors directly hit by the pandemic and the broader economic recovery.
In Friday afternoon trade, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
160462,
advanced 7.6%, while the city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index
HSI,
jumped 7.1% to 17221.43, recovering to levels last seen a month ago. The benchmark index would mark its largest one-day gain since mid-March if it closes at current levels.
China’s three major airlines, Air China Ltd.
601111,
China Southern Airlines Co.
600029,
and China Eastern Airlines Corp.
600115,
added between 2.2% and 5.1%, while travel retailer China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp.
601888,
climbed 7.1%.
Broader consumer-related sectors also strengthened, amid hopes that less stringent rules could help revive consumption. E-commerce platforms Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
BABA,
9988,
and JD.com Inc.
JD,
9618,
jumped 11% and 16%, respectively, while restaurant operator Haidilao International Holding Ltd.
6862,
climbed 4.7%.
China said Friday that it will shorten the quarantine period for close contacts of COVID cases and travelers to the country, among other policy tweaks. But the government also said it will stick to its zero-COVID policy.
Friday’s market upturn came on the back of U.S. stocks’ biggest rally in two years, after October inflation data was weaker than expected, lifting expectations of less aggressive interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
Write to Clarence Leong at clarence.leong@wsj.com
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It is three weeks before Black Friday, but the Federal Reserve is about to make the post-holiday debt hangover a little more intense.
By the time the latest rate hikes filter through the very rate-sensitive credit card industry and pump up customers’ annual percentage rates a little more, experts say it will be some point in December 2022 or January 2023. Right in time for many holiday gifts and expenses to post on credit cards bills — and there to make the costs of a carried balance a little extra expensive.
Every year, many people accumulate credit card debt through the holiday season, pay it off in the early part of the following year and then repeat the process.
What’s different now is the presence of four-decade high inflation, coupled with fast-rising interest rates that the Fed hopes will ultimately cool those rising prices, although without sending the economy to a recessionary thud.
Wednesday’s rate move is the fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike to the federal funds rate, taking it to the 3.75% -4% range, when it was near zero last year’s holiday season. By now, Americans are all too acquainted with 2022’s fast-rising interest rates. They just haven’t gone through a Christmas and Hanakkuh with it yet.
“It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later. We know the economy is sending mixed messages,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
TRU,
one of the country’s three major credit reporting companies.
It’s extra important to think through a holiday budget and how much relies on credit, she said. “People need to think about how much they can afford to repay and how long it will take to repay it.”
Last month, third-quarter earnings from major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
Wells Fargo
WFC,
Citibank
C,
and Bank of America
BAC,
indicated consumer finances, on the whole, are not yet showing cracks under inflation’s strains. (Other numbers show the strain, like the personal savings rate that’s been dwindling.)
Now, two forecasts suggest many people ready to spend the same amount for this year’s holiday cheer as they did last year.
People are planning to spend an average $1,430 on gifts, travel and entertainment this year, which is around the $1,447 spent last year, according to PwC researchers. Three-quarters of people said they were planning to spend the same or more than last year and respondents said credit cards were one of their top ways to pay.
“ Compared to last year, credit card balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier.”
By another measure, Americans will pay an average $1,455 on holiday-related gifts and experiences, essentially flat from last year, say Deloitte researchers.
More than one-third of surveyed consumers say their financial outlook is worse than the same point last year. Nearly one-quarter of people were concerned about credit card debt as of late September, Deloitte’s numbers show in an ongoing tracking of consumer mood.
It’s understandable to see the concern with households amassing a collective $890 billion in credit card debt through the second quarter. Compared to last year, balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier because the interest rates applied to those balances are rising.
When people were carrying a credit card balance month to month, the sum was $5,474 on average, according to Raneri. That’s through the end of September and it’s a nearly 13% rise year over year, she said. The 164 million people carrying a balance is a 5% increase from last year, she noted.
Credit cards carrying a balance during the third quarter had an average 18.43% APR, Federal Reserve data shows. That’s up from 16.65% in the second quarter and up from 17.13% in 2021’s third quarter.
Credit card issuers typically determine their rates by applying a “prime rate” — typically three percentage points on top of the federal funds rate — and the issuer’s profit margin, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com.
By late October, the rate on new card offers was 18.73%, according to Bankrate data. At this point last year, it was 16.31%, Rossman said. In a few weeks, the rates on new offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR, exclusive to new offers, he added.
While it can take a billing cycle or two for a higher APR to make its way to an existing credit card account, Rossman noted the APRs on new offers could rise in a matter of days.
Here’s a hypothetical to show how much more expensive credit card debt becomes with every extra hike. Suppose the $5,474 balance is on a credit card with the current 18.73% average. If a person has to resort to minimum payments, Rossman said, they’d be paying $7,118 just in interest to pay off the debt.
“ In a few weeks, the rates on new credit card offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR.”
What if the 18.73% APR gets kicked up 75 basis points to 19.48%? If that same borrower has to pay minimums, they are now paying $7,417 in interest to snuff the principal debt of $5,474, Rossman said.
The example has its limits because people may pay more than the minimum and they may incur more credit card debt as they pay off the old one. But it shows a bigger point: “Unfortunately, anybody dealing with credit card debt is a loser from the series of rate hikes. It was already expensive. It’s getting more so,” Rossman said.
While decisions during the Fed’s November meeting can have a ripple effect on holiday-time borrowing costs, observers say the real question about Wednesday is the clues Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell drops for what’s next. The central bank’s committee voting on interest rate increases reconvenes in mid-December.
On Wednesday, the Fed said in a statement it expected further rate increases, but also said it would be watching to see if there were lag effects with its tightening policies, which could slow or limit the total amount of increases.
“People, when they hear lags, they think about a pause. It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go,” Powell told reporters at a Wednesday afternoon press conference.
The economy is strong enough to handle higher rates, Powell said. For one thing, households have “strong balance sheets” and “strong spending power,” he noted.
Stock markets first jumped higher after the latest interest rate announcement. But they gave up the gains — and then some — by the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
was down more than 500 points, or 1.6% while the S&P 500
SPX,
was down 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
closed 3.4% lower.
Top economists in major North American-based banks forecasted the Fed will keep raising interest rates “until the first quarter of next year before potentially lowering rates through the end of 2023,” Sayee Srinivasan, chief economist at the American Bankers Association, the banking sector’s trade association, said ahead of Wednesday’s latest rate hike.
“Top economists polled as part of a banking industry panel expect Fed rate increases through at least the first quarter of 2023.”
The forecast, coming through an ABA advisory committee, is no sure thing. “Everything depends on the ability of the Fed to bring inflation down, so that will remain their clear priority,” said Srinivasan.
Meanwhile, rising costs may cause more people to put the holiday cheer on plastic, even their decorations. The majority of Christmas tree growers in one poll are expecting wholesale prices to climb 5% to 15% for this season.
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United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock rallied after hours Tuesday after the airline said it expected the travel rebound to weather a shakier economy in the months ahead and reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.
“Looking forward through the end of the year, the airline expects the strong COVID recovery trends to continue to overcome the recessionary pressures in the macroeconomic environment,” company executives said in a statement.
That backdrop — along with tighter flight networks and changes in how people work — helped justify the airline’s more upbeat forecast for the fourth quarter. United Airlines
UAL,
said it expected adjusted fourth-quarter operating margin of around 10%, the first time the figure would end above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
United also forecast adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of between $2.00 and $2.25, well above FactSet forecasts for 98 cents per share. The carrier also said it expected a 24% to 25% gain in total fourth-quarter unit revenue — a much-watched industry metric that measures sales as spread out across an airline’s flight capacity — when compared to the same period in 2019.
Adjusted fourth-quarter unit costs were seen up between 11% and 12%, and roughly 15% for the full year, when compared to the respective periods in 2019.
For the third quarter, United reported net income of $942 million, or $2.86 per share, compared with $473 million, or $1.44 per share, in the prior-year quarter.
On an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.81 per share, compared with a $1.02 per-share loss in the quarter a year ago and $4.07 in 2019. Revenue was $12.877 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago and $11.38 billion in 2019.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share, on revenue of $12.743 billion.
Shares jumped 7% after the market’s close. American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL,
which reports earnings on Thursday, rose 3.6% after hours.
United, in its earnings release, also called out three demand trends that it said were “more than fully offsetting any economic headwinds.” It said that “Air travel is still in the COVID recovery phase, hybrid work gives customers the freedom and flexibility to travel for leisure more often, and external supply challenges will limit industry supply for years to come.”
The carrier said it expected total flight capacity, a measure of available seats on flights, to be down between 9% and 10% for the fourth quarter and down around 13% for the full year, when compared to 2019 levels.
United reported as analysts look for cracks in the travel industry’s rebound and holiday demand, after eager travelers this summer ran into flight delays and cancellations, insufficient staffing and severe weather. Airfares and fuel costs are more expensive — a function of strong demand and thinner supplies. Aircraft supply is tight, some executives have said. Airlines have also tried to bulk up flight crews, particularly pilots, after encouraging buyouts in 2020, as the pandemic left the industry without passengers and burning through cash.
Delta Air Lines Inc.
DAL,
last week said it expected fourth-quarter sales to grow from pre-pandemic levels, as demand for travel, after two years of pandemic-related restraint, holds up against rising prices.
“The travel recovery continues as consumer spend shifts to experiences and demand improves in corporate and international,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in its earnings release.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, in a research note last week, said she expected United to see similar momentum, helped by corporate travel and international demand.
She said American and JetBlue Airways Corp.
JBLU,
should benefit to a lesser degree, “due to large corp and transatlantic exposure at the former and large coastal-city exposure at the latter.” JetBlue reports earnings on Oct. 25.
Delta’s international-unit revenue growth outpaced that in its domestic business for the first time since the pandemic started. Leisure travel to Europe helped propel results, as did strong demand for Delta’s premium-class seats. Bastian said he expected Delta’s flight network to be fully restored by summer next year.
“Demand has not come close to being quenched by a hectic summer travel season,” he said on Delta’s earnings call. “At the same time, industry supply is constrained by aircraft availability, regional pilot shortages and hiring and training needs.”
Delta rose 3% after the bell on Tuesday.
United Airlines stock is down 15% so far this year. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
is down 22% over that time.
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TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.
Benchmarks fell in Tokyo
NIY00,
Shanghai
SHCOMP,
and Hong Kong
HSI00,
but rose in Sydney.
South Korea’s Kospi
180721,
lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.
In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar
JPYUSD,
at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar
USDJPY,
was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro
EURUSD,
cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.
The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
ASX10000,
gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500
SPX,
fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq
COMP,
dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index
RUT,
rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.
Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.
“The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.
Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm
QCOM,
fell 4%.
Uber
UBER,
fell 10.4% and Lyft
LYFT,
slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.
The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.
Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.
Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice
The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.
“Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.
Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.
Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo
PEP,
Delta Air Lines
DAL,
and Domino’s Pizza
DPZ,
Banks including Citigroup
C,
and JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
will also report results.
In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude
CL00,
lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude
BRN00,
the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.
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