Market Summary
Stocks climbed as AI optimism and strong bank earnings lifted sentiment: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose, led by chipmakers and financials, while the Dow trailed but still gained. Volatility eased, Treasuries retraced earlier moves, and energy names swung on shifting Iran headlines—markets watched TSMC capex, Nvidia tariff news, and data-center power risks as key catalysts.
The White House and several state governors are moving to force hyperscalers and large data centers to shoulder the cost of new power capacity as AI demand strains grids. Proposals include emergency auctions in PJM and directives to make tech firms pay for new plants.
Figure of the Day
56bn – TSMC plans up to $56 billion in 2026 capital spending to meet surging AI chip demand.
TSMC is accelerating investment to meet an AI-driven chip boom, boosting capex and expanding U.S. footprints. The moves signal a multiyear buildout that will reshape global supply chains and power demand.
Washington and Taipei struck a trade framework to lower tariffs and spur semiconductor investment in the U.S. The deal promises tariff cuts and a $250bn-plus investment pledge to beef up American chip capacity.
Bullish
BlackRock’s blowout earnings pass the test – asset manager surges
BlackRock reported a strong quarter and raised targets tied to AI strategy and inflows, signaling robust demand for active management and ETF flows amid market optimism.
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Washington imposed export tariffs and supply constraints are squeezing chip supply chains, tightening memory markets that threaten AI growth in China. Companies face higher costs and licensing hurdles for advanced AI servers.
A DOJ criminal probe into the Fed chair has raised questions about the central bank’s independence even as Wall Street leaders publicly back Powell. The investigation has injected political risk into monetary policy debates.
Bearish
Saks Global files for bankruptcy – luxury retail shaken
Parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus filed for Chapter 11, highlighting debt pressures and a grim reading on high-end retail’s balance sheets.
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JPMorgan is boosting its push into private markets, creating teams to help firms raise private capital as IPO activity and fundraising dynamics shift. The bank is repositioning to capture expanded private financing flows.
Asset managers and custody banks are racing to structure tokenized products and AI partnerships as demand for digital assets and AI strategies surges. Firms are raising capital and building infrastructure to capture the next wave of market activity.
Regulatory Impact
White House orders emergency wholesale auction to make data centers fund new power plants; U.S. imposes 25% tariff on select AI chips; U.S.-Taiwan trade deal cuts tariffs to 15% to spur U.S. chip investment.
A high-profile crypto market structure bill stalled after Coinbase intervened, exposing fractures between exchanges and lawmakers. Senators are regrouping as industry lobbying and legal concerns complicate progress.
OpenAI and Microsoft failed to block Elon Musk’s suit from reaching a jury, heightening legal risk for leading AI labs. The companies brace for a trial that could set precedents for AI governance and competition.
Quote
If data centers don’t pay their share, communities will, and that’s not acceptable.
— White House official (on the emergency power auction)
Elon Musk’s xAI and Grok chatbot face lawsuits and regulatory probes over sexualized deepfakes and explicit image generation. Governments and plaintiffs are pressing platforms for stricter safeguards and accountability.
Europe deployed troops and began Arctic drills as transatlantic tensions over Greenland spike following U.S. talk of a takeover. The moves are intended to deter unilateral action and reassure NATO allies in the Arctic.
President Trump’s talk of seizing Greenland has provoked diplomatic rebukes and warnings that any U.S. move could harm trade with Europe. Paris and Brussels signalled potential economic consequences if sovereignty is challenged.
U.S. forces seized another Venezuela-linked tanker as Washington tightens pressure on Caracas’ oil networks, while opposition leader María Corina Machado courted Trump with symbolic gestures. The moves complicate oil markets and diplomatic calculations.
Israel intelligence and U.S. officials are coordinating on Iran as strikes and protests roil the region. Diplomatic and military signaling suggests Washington is calibrating options while tensions ebb and surge.
Markets rallied on renewed AI optimism and easing geopolitical risk, with tech-led strength lifting futures. Traders tracked the chip cycle, bank earnings, and Treasury yields as volatility cooled intraday.
Oil swung on geopolitical headlines: supply concerns from the Middle East lifted prices, then easing strike risks sent crude lower. Traders face heightened volatility as geopolitics and macro cues compete.
A multi-hour Verizon outage disrupted millions and triggered customer credits, renewing scrutiny of carrier resilience. Regulators and investors are watching for network fixes and compensation policies.
Wall Street’s top banks posted strong fourth-quarter results as dealmaking and trading revivals padded profits. Earnings from bulge-bracket banks underscore resilience in markets and fuel higher trading activity.