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  • IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

    IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

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    America’s high inflation rate will produce a 7% increase in the size of the standard deduction when workers file their taxes on their 2023 income, according to new inflation adjustments from the Internal Revenue Service.

    It’s also going to pump up tax brackets by 7% as well, according to the annual inflation adjustments the IRS announced this week.

    Many tax code provisions — but not all — are indexed for inflation, so the announcements are a recurring event. But when inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments carry extra significance.

    When inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments of approximately 7% for the standard deduction carry extra significance.

    Start with the standard deduction, which is what most people use instead of itemizing deductions.

    The standard deduction for individuals and married people filing separately will be $13,850 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $900 increase from the $12,950 standard deduction for the upcoming tax season.

    For married couples filing jointly, the payout climbs to $27,700 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $1,800 increase from the $25,900 standard deduction set for the upcoming tax year.

    The increases in the marginal tax rates reflect the same 7% rise. For example, the 22% tax bracket for this year is over $41,775 for single filers and over $83,550 for married couples filing jointly. Next year, the same 22% bracket applies to incomes over $44,725 and over $89,450 for married couples filing jointly.

    MarketWatch/IRS

    “The changes seem to be much larger than previous years because inflation is running much higher than it has in previous decades,” said Alex Durante, economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning tax think tank.

    The IRS arrives at its inflation adjustments by averaging a slightly different inflation gauge, the so-called “chained Consumer Price Index” instead of the widely-watched Consumer Price Index, Durante noted. That’s an outcome of the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he added.

    “The reason they do this is because the regular CPI is thought to overstate inflation because it doesn’t take into account the substitution that shoppers can make as cost rise,” Durante said. Shoppers substitute when they swap a more expensive item for cheaper one, and research shows many Americans are using the tactic.

    The IRS inflation adjustments come after September CPI data last week showed inflation of 8.2% year-over-year, slightly off from 8.3% in August. Also last week, the Social Security Administration said next year’s payments would include an 8.7% cost of living adjustment.

    The payout on the earned income tax credit — geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation — is also increasing.

    The payout on the earned income tax credit is also increasing. The maximum payout for a qualifying taxpayer with at least three qualifying children climbs to $7,430, up from $6,935 for this tax year. The longstanding credit is geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation.

    More than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, but many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. Depending on the circumstances, the taxes or the tax breaks kick in sooner.

    Capital gains tax rules one example. The IRS lets a taxpayer use capital losses to offset capital gains taxes. If losses exceed gains, the IRS allows a taxpayer to deduct up to $3,000 in excess loses. They can then carry the remainder of the capital loses to future tax years. It’s been more than four decades since lawmakers last set the limit, according to Durante.

    While more than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. They include capital gains tax.

    Given the stock market’s rocky downward slide this year, many investors might welcome a fast-approaching tax break — even if it only enables a $3,000 deduction.

    At the same time, a married couple selling their home can exclude the first $500,000 of the sale from capital gains taxation, and it’s $250,000 for a single filer. It’s been that way since the exclusion’s 1997 establishment.

    The once white-hot housing market may be cooling, but many sellers may still be facing the point when taxes kick in. The median home listing was over $367,000 as of early October, according to Redfin
    RDFN,
    +2.29%
    .

    The child tax credit is another example. After the payout to parents last year jumped to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 per child age 6 to 17, it’s back to a maximum $2,000. The credit’s refundable portion climbs from $1,500 to $1,600 during tax year 2023, the IRS notes.

    Proponents of the boosted payouts and some Congressional Democrats want to revive the larger payments in negotiations tied to corporate taxes. The high costs of living are a strong reason to bring back the boosted credit, they say.

    Related:

    What smart strategies can lower your tax bill as year-end approaches? Read this before making any tax moves.

    Three things the best 401(k)s offer that can help you save a lot more

    Enhanced child tax credit helped reduce poverty for families before it ended last year. But there’s one way Republicans and Democrats could agree on reinstating it.

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  • IBM stock rallies on third-quarter results, upbeat forecast

    IBM stock rallies on third-quarter results, upbeat forecast

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    Shares of International Business Machines Corp. rallied in extended trading Wednesday, after the tech software, consulting and infrastructure giant reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and offered up a more upbeat full-year sales forecast.

    IBM
    IBM,
    -0.35%

    reported earnings as Wall Street tries to gauge the impact of a tough foreign-exchange environment, and the state of business spending on tech services amid worries over a downturn. But the company saw gains in hybrid cloud services, products like open-source software platform Red Hat, its consulting services and its zSystems servers and software.

    “Globally, clients view technology as an opportunity to enhance their business, which is evident in the results across our portfolio,” Chief Executive Arvind Krishna said in a statement. He added that he now expects full-year sales growth “above our mid-single-digit model.”

    That’s a bit more optimistic than the forecast he gave over the summer, when IBM reported second-quarter results. Krishna, at that time, said he continued “to expect full-year revenue growth at the high end of our mid-single-digit model.”

    Wall Street expects IBM’s full-year sales to come in at $59.667 billion, according to FactSet. Analysts expect 2022 earnings per share of $9.28. IBM also said it continued to expect around $10 billion in consolidated free cash flow for the year.

    For the third quarter, the company reported a net loss of $3.2 billion, or $3.54 per share, compared with a $1.1 billion profit, or $1.25 per share, in the year-earlier period. On an adjusted basis, IBM earned $1.81 per share.

    Sales came in at $14.1 billion, compared with $13.3 billion a year ago.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings per share of $1.79, on revenue of $13.517 billion.

    Revenue in the company’s software segment grew 7.5%. Consulting revenue rose 5.4%, while the company’s infrastructure segment jumped 14.8%.

    Shares gained 4.8% after hours on Wednesday.

    Prior to the results, analysts had zeroed in on the impact of the strong dollar and what Morgan Stanley, in a recent note, described as “continued wage pressure in consulting.” IBM has also been trying to lean more into cloud and AI technology, unloading some businesses in an effort to narrow its focus.

    Last year, in a move toward that goal, IBM spun off its infrastructure services business into Kyndryl Holdings
    KD,
    -2.85%
    .
    But afterward, some analysts raised questions about IBM’s ability to grow sales and compete in the cloud-services industry. Francisco Partners, an investment firm, this year also acquired health-care data and analytics assets that were part of IBM’s Watson Health segment.

    In January, IBM declined to provide an earnings-per-share forecast. The company also changed how it organizes its business segments at the beginning of this year.

    But during the spring, Krishna said he saw “demand staying strong” even if economic growth flattens or enters into a brief recession, with the decision to halt business in Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, the only drag on results.

    IBM stock is down 8% year to date. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    is down 22%.

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  • These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

    These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

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    You probably already know that because of market-capitalization weighting, a broad index such as the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    can be concentrated in a handful of stocks. Index funds are popular for good reasons — they tend to have low expenses and it is difficult for active managers to outperform them over the long term.

    For example, look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    -0.71%
    ,
    which tracks the S&P 500 by holding all of its stocks by the same weighting as the index. Five stocks — Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -1.08%

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.84%
    ,
    make up 21.5% of the portfolio.

    But there are other considerations when it comes to diversification — namely, factors. During an interview, Scott Weber of Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston explained how groups of stock and commodities can move together, adding to a lack of diversification in a typical portfolio or index fund.

    Weber co-manages the $293 million Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund
    VNSAX,
    -0.96%
    ,
    which carries a five-star rating (the highest) from investment-researcher Morningstar, and has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500.

    Vaughan Nelson is a Houston-based affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, with about $13 billion in assets under management, including $5 billion managed under the same strategy as the fund, including the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF
    VNSE,
    -0.87%
    .
    The ETF was established in Sept, 2020, so does not yet have a Morningstar rating.

    Factoring-in the factors

    Weber explained how he and colleagues incorporate 35 factors into their portfolio selection process. For example, a fund might hold shares of real-estate investment trusts (REITs), financial companies and energy producers. These companies are in different sectors, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. Yet their performance may be correlated.

    Weber pointed out that REITs, for example, were broken out of the financial sector to become their own sector in 2016. “Did that make REIT’s more sensitive to interest rates? The answer is no,” he said. “The S&P sector buckets are somewhat  better than arbitrary, but they are not perfect.”

    Of course 2022 is something of an exception, with so many assets dropping in price at the same time. But over the long term, factor analysis can identify correlations and lead money managers to limit their investments in companies, sectors or industries whose prices tend to move together. This style has helped the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund outperform against its benchmark, Weber said.

    Getting back to the five largest components of the S&P 500, they are all tech-oriented, even though only two, Apple and Microsoft, are in the information technology sector, while Alphabet is in the communications sector and Tesla is in the consumer discretionary sector. “Regardless of the sectors,” they tend to move together, Weber said.

    Exposure to commodity prices, timing of revenue streams through economic cycles (which also incorporates currency exposure), inflation and many other items are additional factors that Weber and his colleagues incorporate into their broad allocation strategy and individual stock selections.

    For example, you might ordinarily expect inflation, real estate and gold to move together, Weber said. But as we are seeing this year, with high inflation and rising interest rates, there is downward pressure on real-estate prices, while gold prices
    GC00,
    -0.01%

    have declined 10% this year.

    Digging further, the factors also encompass sensitivity of investments to U.S. and other countries’ government bonds of various maturities, credit spreads between corporate and government bonds in developed countries, exchange rates, and measures of liquidity, price volatility and momentum.

    Stock selection

    The largest holding of the Select fund is NextEra Energy Inc.
    NEE,
    -1.89%
    ,
    which owns FPL, Florida’s largest electric utility. FPL is phasing-out coal plants and replacing power-generating capacity with natural gas as well as wind and solar facilities.

    Weber said: “There’s not a company on the planet that is better at getting alternate (meaning solar and wind) generation deployed. But because they own FPL, some of my investors say it is one of the largest carbon emitters on the planet.”

    He added that “as a consequence of their skill in operating, they re generating amazing returns for investors.” NextEra’s share shave returned 446% over the past 10 years. One practice that has helped to elevate the company’s return on equity, and presumably its stock price, has been “dropping assets down” into NextEra Energy Partners LP
    NEP,
    -2.61%
    ,
    which NEE manages, Weber said. He added that the assets put into the partnership tend to be “great at cash-flow generation, but not on achieving growth.”

    When asked for more examples of stocks in the fund that may provide excellent long-term returns, Weber mentioned Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    ,
    as a way to take advantage of the broad decline in semiconductor stocks this year. (The iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +0.64%

    has declined 21% this year, while industry stalwarts Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +0.70%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.19%

    are down 59% and 60%, respectively.)

    He said Monolithic Power has been consistently making investments that improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). A company’s ROIC is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of stock it has issued over the years and its current debt. It doesn’t reflect the stock price and is considered a good measure of a management team’s success at making investment decisions and managing projects. Monolithic Power’s ROICC for 2021 was 21.8%, according to FactSet, rising from 13.2% five years earlier.

    “We want to see a business generating a return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. In addition, they need to invest their capital at incrementally improving returns,” Weber said.

    Another example Weber gave of a stock held by the fund is Dollar General Corp.
    DG,
    +0.33%
    ,
    which he called a much better operator than rival Dollar Tree Inc.
    DLTR,
    +0.14%
    ,
    which owns Family Dollar. He cited DG’s roll-out of frozen-food and fresh food offerings, as well as its growth runway: “They still have 8,000 or 9,000 stores to build-out” in the U.S., he said.

    Fund holdings

    In order to provide a full current list of stocks held under Weber’s strategy, here are the 27 stocks held by the the Natixis Vaughan Select ETF as of Sept. 30. The largest 10 positions made up 49% of the portfolio:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    NextEra Energy Inc.

    NEE,
    -1.89%
    5.74%

    Dollar General Corp.

    DG,
    +0.33%
    5.51%

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    -2.89%
    4.93%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    4.91%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    4.90%

    Sherwin-Williams Co.

    SHW,
    -2.53%
    4.80%

    Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

    WPM,
    -2.28%
    4.76%

    Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

    ICE,
    -1.16%
    4.52%

    McCormick & Co.

    MKC,
    +0.11%
    4.48%

    Clorox Co.

    CLX,
    +1.27%
    4.39%

    Aon PLC Class A

    AON,
    +0.21%
    4.33%

    Jack Henry & Associates Inc.

    JKHY,
    -0.97%
    4.08%

    Motorola Solutions Inc.

    MSI,
    -0.64%
    4.08%

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    VRTX,
    -2.72%
    4.01%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    -0.78%
    3.99%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%
    3.03%

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ,
    -0.80%
    2.98%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +0.70%
    2.92%

    Cogent Communications Holdings Inc.

    CCOI,
    -2.10%
    2.81%

    Kosmos Energy Ltd.

    KOS,
    +5.62%
    2.68%

    VeriSign Inc.

    VRSN,
    -0.43%
    2.15%

    Chemed Corp.

    CHE,
    -0.73%
    2.06%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    -1.18%
    2.00%

    Saia Inc.

    SAIA,
    -4.36%
    1.97%

    Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    1.96%

    Entegris Inc.

    ENTG,
    -0.17%
    1.93%

    Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

    LAZR,
    -6.90%
    0.96%

    Source: Natixis Funds

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch.com quote page.

    Fund performance

    The Natixis Vaughan Select Fund was established on June 29, 2012. Here’s a 10-year chart showing the total return of the fund’s Class A shares against that of the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. Sales charges are excluded from the chart and the performance numbers. In the current environment for mutual-fund distribution, sales charges are often waived for purchases of new shares through investment advisers.


    FactSet

    Here’s a comparison of returns for 2022 and average annual returns for various periods of the fund’s Class A shares to that of the S&P 500 and its Morningstar fund category through Oct. 18:

     

    Total return – 2022 through Oct. 18

    Average return – 3 Years

    Average return – 5 Years

    Average return – 10 years

    Vaughan Nelson Select Find – Class A

    -20.2%

    11.8%

    10.8%

    13.0%

    S&P 500

    -21.0%

    9.4%

    9.7%

    12.0%

    Morningstar Large Blend category

    -20.3%

    8.1%

    8.2%

    10.7%

    Sources: Morningstar, FactSet

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  • Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

    Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

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    The numbers:  The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, the trade group said on Tuesday.

    It’s the tenth month in a row that the index has fallen.

    Outside of the pandemic, the October reading of 38 is the lowest level since August 2012.

    A year ago, the index stood at 80.

    The index’s ten-month drop is a new record. The index last fell for 8 months straight in 2006 and 2007.

    Key details: All three gauges that underpin the overall builder-confidence index fell.

    • The gauge that marks current sales conditions fell by 9 points. 

    • The component that assesses sales expectations for the next six months fell by 11 points.

    • And the gauge that measures traffic of prospective buyers fell by 6 points.

    All four NAHB regions posted a drop in builder confidence, led by the south and the west. 

    It’s also likely that this year will be the first time since 2011 that single-family starts see a decline, the NAHB added.

    Big picture: Builders continue to struggle to find buyers with the current rate environment.

    Now they’re saying they’re worried about that depressed demand impacting supply moving forward.

    Specifically, they’re concerned about housing affordability worsening, with potentially fewer new homes being built in the future.

    Mortgage rates have doubled from last year, now exceeding 7%, which has considerably cooled buyer demand. 

    Home price growth is moderating, but prices have not come down substantially — yet. 

    The median sales price for a new home was $436,800 in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    What the NAHB said: Builders are expecting single-family starts to fall for the first time in 11 years — and expect additional declines through 2023, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, due to the Federal Reserve’s projected rate hikes to control inflation.

    While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates, and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers,” he added.

    “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable,” Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. and the NAHB’s chairman, said in a statement.
    “Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis,” he added.

    What are they saying? “The housing sector – sentiment, building activity and sales – is collapsing under the weight of a rapid increase in interest rates and elevated prices, which are crimping affordability and demand,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note.

    So expect building activity to be depressed, she added.

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.989%

    fell to 3.98% on Tuesday morning.

    While the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
    XHB,
    +2.15%

    traded slightly higher during the morning session, and the big home-builder stocks, from D.R. Horton Inc.
    DHI,
    +2.90%

    to Toll Brothers
    TOL,
    +1.87%

    to Lennar
    LEN,
    +2.97%
    ,
    edged higher.

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  • These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

    These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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    This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

    Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.78%

    — that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

    Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

    Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
    BUFEX,
    -2.86%

    and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
    BUFTX,
    -2.82%
    ,
    said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

    The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

    Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

    He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

    He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

    Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

    Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

    After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

    He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.14%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.69%

    were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

    Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
    ASML,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

    Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.63%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +3.91%

    GOOGL,
    +3.73%
    .

    Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Danaher Corp.
    DHR,
    +2.64%

    and Linde PLC
    LIN,
    +2.25%

    recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
    ADBE,
    +2.32%

    price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

    Summarizing the declines

    To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.29%

    of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

    Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    -22%

    22.2

    30.2

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    +2.32%
    -49%

    19.4

    40.5

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +6.63%
    -36%

    62.1

    64.9

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    +3.69%
    -61%

    14.7

    43.1

    ASML Holding N.V. ADR

    ASML,
    +3.79%
    -52%

    22.7

    41.2

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    +2.64%
    -23%

    24.3

    32.1

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +3.91%
    -33%

    17.5

    25.3

    Linde PLC

    LIN,
    +2.25%
    -21%

    22.2

    29.6

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    -32%

    22.5

    34.0

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +6.14%
    -62%

    28.9

    58.0

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    +1.77%
    2%

    21.5

    23.2

    Source: FactSet

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

    Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot

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  • A Tesla stock plunge could destroy ‘zombie stocks’ such as GameStop and Peloton, warns equity research firm New Constructs

    A Tesla stock plunge could destroy ‘zombie stocks’ such as GameStop and Peloton, warns equity research firm New Constructs

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    Tesla shares could decline dramatically — and that could mean disaster for a number of stocks that have already seen deep share-price cuts, according to equity research firm New Constructs.

    The research firm, which uses machine learning and natural language processing to parse corporate filings and model economic earnings, called the stocks in danger “zombie stocks,” and defined them as companies with poor business models that are burning cash at an alarming rate and are at risk of seeing their stock decline to $0 per share.

    The research firm estimates there could be some 300 zombie companies across the marketplace.

    “The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes so far in 2022 have ended the era of free money and exposed a worrisome dynamic throughout capital markets: zombie stocks,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note.

    See Now: Tesla earnings are coming, but do record deliveries mask a demand problem?

    New Constructs does not define Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +7.01%

    as a “zombie stock,” citing CEO Elon Musk’s ability to raise capital, but does see the electric car manufacturer as a bellwether for the sector. “It shares many of the common characteristics of a zombie stock, such as an outrageous valuation and high cash burn,” wrote Trainer. “We believe Tesla’s unrelenting share price rise over the past three years – where investors completely ignored company fundamentals – inspired the birth of many of today’s zombie stocks.” 

    Tesla reports its third-quarter results after the closing bell on Oct. 19.

    The company’s stock was trading around $220 on Monday, an increase of over 1,000% compared to three years ago. But Trainer feels that Tesla is at risk of falling more than 80% to $25 a share.

    Tesla’s Optimus bot: ‘High school science project’ or robotics game changer?

    Tesla’s stock has fallen 37.6% in 2022, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s
    SPX,
    +2.65%

    decline of 22.7%.

    “Its valuation remains nosebleed high because the cash flow expectations baked into the stock price are unreasonably optimistic,” Trainer wrote. “Our message to investors is to take profits in Tesla and avoid zombie stocks at all costs.”

    New Constructs recently added cloud-based communication company RingCentral Inc.
    RNG,
    +6.49%

    to its list of “zombie” stocks. Other companies on the list are Freshpet Inc.
    FRPT,
    -2.03%
    ,
     Peloton Interactive Inc.
    PTON,
    +7.04%
    ,
     Carvana Co.
    CVNA,
    +6.30%
    ,
     Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    +6.01%
    ,
     Beyond Meat Inc.
    BYND,
    +0.64%
    ,
     Rivian Automotive Inc.
    RIVN,
    +6.93%
    ,
     DoorDash Inc.
    DASH,
    +6.15%
    ,
     Shake Shack Inc.
    SHAK,
    +4.01%
    ,
     Chewy Inc.
    CHWY,
    +10.76%
    ,
     Uber Technologies Inc.
    UBER,
    +4.98%
    ,
     Robinhood Markets Inc.
    HOOD,
    +3.24%
    ,
     Tilray Brands Inc.
    TLRY,
    +7.32%
    ,
     Affirm Holdings Inc.
    AFRM,
    +6.72%
    ,
     SunRun Inc.
    RUN,
    +1.70%
    ,
     Blue Apron Holdings Inc.
    APRN,
    +3.26%
    ,
     and meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. 
    AMC,
    +6.00%

    and GameStop Corp.
    GME,
    +5.40%
    .

    See Now: RingCentral added to ‘zombie’ stocks list by equity research firm New Constructs

    “Investors are now fed up with these kinds of companies, especially amid this year’s stock market volatility,” wrote New Constructs’ Trainer. “If investors start to give up on Tesla and take profits on the stock, which is up over 1,000% over the past three years, that spells terrible news for all of the other zombie stocks that don’t have the cash-raising luxury that Tesla has.”  

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