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Tag: abundance

  • Advocates use tricky math against housing abundance

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    Anti-poverty advocates are using some tricky math to push back on the “abundance” movement as a solution to housing affordability.

    A new report by the Center on Poverty and Inequality at Georgetown Law School says that in markets where developers built a lot of housing, rents for low-income units went up more than for other units. The researchers got their study featured in a New York Times article.

    But the actual rent increases might have been smaller than the report made them seem, and in the context of rising expenses, they should surprise absolutely no one.

    Nor are they an argument against adding robustly to housing supply. The researchers, to their credit, don’t reject the abundance strategy. But they do suggest that abundance doesn’t help low-income tenants.

    I agree that very poor people need more than ample supply, because their incomes aren’t enough to sustain any kind of decent housing. That is, they need income support such as rental vouchers.

    But they also need an ample supply of housing to accommodate people who out-earn them. Otherwise they will be competing with them — a losing proposition.

    My first bone to pick with the report is its title: “Abundance for Who?” That’s like fingernails on a chalkboard for me. Would it have killed them to say “Abundance for Whom?”

    Then I took a close look at the LinkedIn post by Lelaine Bigelow, the executive director of the center behind the study:

    “For years, the narrative has been simple: just build more housing and prices will come down. But our analysis of six high-growth metros shows it’s not that straightforward.

    “Take Phoenix. The city built aggressively. New units had a vacancy rate over 9%. Yet rents for extremely low-income households jumped 26.7% while rents for high-income households actually fell by 5.3%.”

    The alleged increase was over eight years, from 2015 to 2023. And the “high-income” statistic Bigelow cited actually included moderate- and middle-income households. These groups make up the majority of renters.

    That’s the first reason the study’s numbers are — to borrow Bigelow’s phrase — “not that straightforward.”

    The bigger reason is that researchers adjusted for inflation not by using the general Consumer Price Index but by using CPI for local rents for the metropolitan area in question.

    Stay with me here, people. Math concept ahead!

    Rent inflation across the Phoenix market was very low, perhaps even negative, from 2015 to 2023, thanks to aggressive building for moderate- to upper-income families.

    But that rent inflation makes even modest nominal increases in rents paid by extremely low-income households (earning $30,000 or less) look very large — in this case, 26.7 percent.

    “If you told Class C/D operators in Phoenix their rents were up 26.7 percent over that period, they would look at you like you were crazy,” housing economist Jay Parsons commented below Bigelow’s post.

    Let’s review:

    Phoenix built like crazy, resulting in a real (inflation-adjusted) drop in rents for most households. That’s a clear win for housing affordability.

    But because so many rents fell, if your household’s rent went up, the relative increase is going to be a big percentage jump.

    And why did rents increase for the cheapest units?

    Lisa Gomez, CEO of the big New York City real estate firm L & M Development Partners, answered that question:

    “It’s as much about operating expenses as it is about supply,” Gomez wrote on LinkedIn. “Every area has its own operating economics and you have to have corresponding income to cover them.”

    Owners of the cheapest rental housing are far more sensitive to those increases than at the high end. Those landlords must either raise rents to cover their costs or shutter the unit (which would remove it from the data).

    Unfortunately, the study did not compare rent increases to the increases in operating costs, such as for utilities, insurance, property taxes and maintenance. But they were probably lower.

    The bottom line is: in markets with housing abundance, most rents stayed down because of competition. Because operating costs rose, the lowest-income tenants saw rents increase relative to higher earners’ rents. And without abundance to absorb demand for housing, their rents would have gone up a lot more.

    “We need to do A LOT more to help low-income families access safe, quality housing (more subsidized housing, vouchers, etc.),” Parsons wrote, “but simply demanding we build less market rate wouldn’t provide any material boost to these families because those projects aren’t gonna pencil out at the rent levels needed.”

    Read more

    The case for an “abundance agenda” – not rent control – for NYC’s housing crisis


    How Progressives Sabotage Their Own Pro-Housing Laws

    How to sabotage your own housing goals


    Affordable housing

    Chicago

    Why units that rent for less cost more to build


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    Erik Engquist

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  • Air Force One safely returns to Washington area due to minor electrical issue, White House says

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    President Donald Trump’s plane, Air Force One, returned to Joint Base Andrews about an hour after departing for Switzerland on Tuesday evening.White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the decision to return was made after takeoff when the crew aboard Air Force One identified “a minor electrical issue” and, out of an abundance of caution, decided to turn around.Related video above: “You’ll find out:” Trump asked how far he’ll go to acquire Greenland ahead of overseas tripA reporter on board said the lights in the press cabin of the aircraft went out briefly after takeoff, but no explanation was immediately offered. About half an hour into the flight reporters were told the plane would be turning around.Trump will board another aircraft and continue on with his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos.The two planes currently used as Air Force One have been flying for nearly four decades. Boeing has been working on replacements, but the program has faced a series of delays. The planes are heavily modified with survivability capabilities for the president for a range of contingencies, including radiation shielding and antimissile technology. They also include a variety of communications systems to allow the president to remain in contact with the military and issue orders from anywhere in the world.Last year, the ruling family of Qatar gifted Trump a luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet to be added to the Air Force One fleet, a move that faced great scrutiny. That plane is currently being retrofitted to meet security requirements.Leavitt joked to reporters on Air Force One Tuesday night that a Qatari jet was sounding “much better” right now.Last February, an Air Force plane carrying Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Germany had to return to Washington because of a mechanical issue. In October, a military plane carrying Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had to make an emergency landing in United Kingdom due to a crack in the windshield.

    President Donald Trump’s plane, Air Force One, returned to Joint Base Andrews about an hour after departing for Switzerland on Tuesday evening.

    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the decision to return was made after takeoff when the crew aboard Air Force One identified “a minor electrical issue” and, out of an abundance of caution, decided to turn around.

    Related video above: “You’ll find out:” Trump asked how far he’ll go to acquire Greenland ahead of overseas trip

    A reporter on board said the lights in the press cabin of the aircraft went out briefly after takeoff, but no explanation was immediately offered. About half an hour into the flight reporters were told the plane would be turning around.

    Trump will board another aircraft and continue on with his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    The two planes currently used as Air Force One have been flying for nearly four decades. Boeing has been working on replacements, but the program has faced a series of delays. The planes are heavily modified with survivability capabilities for the president for a range of contingencies, including radiation shielding and antimissile technology. They also include a variety of communications systems to allow the president to remain in contact with the military and issue orders from anywhere in the world.

    Last year, the ruling family of Qatar gifted Trump a luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet to be added to the Air Force One fleet, a move that faced great scrutiny. That plane is currently being retrofitted to meet security requirements.

    Leavitt joked to reporters on Air Force One Tuesday night that a Qatari jet was sounding “much better” right now.

    Last February, an Air Force plane carrying Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Germany had to return to Washington because of a mechanical issue. In October, a military plane carrying Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had to make an emergency landing in United Kingdom due to a crack in the windshield.

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  • An Abundance Agenda For America

    An Abundance Agenda For America

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    Third quarter GDP growth came in at 2.6%, reversing GDP declines in the first and second quarters, but there are still signs of economic weakness. Sales to U.S. consumers continue to slow, inflation remains high, and over the next decade the Congressional Budget Office predicts real GDP growth to average less than 2% per year. A struggling economy is not inevitable, however, and a new report from the Center for Growth and Opportunity (CGO) at Utah State University explains the policy reforms needed to achieve abundance rather than stagnation.

    In their new report, authors Taylor Barkley, Jennifer Morales, and Josh Smith explain that achieving abundance means faster economic growth, better living standards, a cleaner environment, and cheaper prices. They acknowledge that America faces headwinds—labor shortages, housing shortages, and various supply chain problems. But America is also the home of the world’s most innovative and successful companies, first-class universities, and remains the number one destination for immigrants.

    America has long been the world’s hub of innovation, and by leaning into our willingness to take risks we can continue to pace the world and ensure economic opportunities for everyone.

    The first piece of the abundance agenda is maintaining competitive markets. America’s strong system of property rights and efficient capital markets make it relatively easy (though not easy enough) to start and grow a business. Policies that change this, such as stifling so-called “Big Tech” with new antitrust rules or more government oversight and regulation, would reduce economic dynamism and make it harder for upstarts to compete and overtake entrenched incumbents.

    Studies show that more regulation increases prices, increases poverty, exacerbates income inequality, reduces employment, and decreases business investment. An abundance agenda streamlines regulation so duplicative and overly burdensome regulations do not impede entrepreneurs.

    A stark example from the report is the FDA approval process. The process is taking longer and longer, which prevents important medicines and medical devices from getting into the hands of consumers. The FDA should shorten approval times by allowing post-launch monitoring of drugs. This would enable consumers to use new drugs while the FDA continues to collect data on safety. The FDA should also shift its focus to safety monitoring rather than efficacy testing, as this would also make drugs available sooner.

    The authors also recommend removing barriers to transportation innovation. The Federal Aviation Administration should have a deadline for integrating drones into aviation rules. Drones are already providing immense benefits to consumers around the world, but America is falling behind due to regulatory uncertainty.

    Congress should also instruct the FAA to allow some supersonic flights to help create a market for faster air travel. There have been advances in supersonic flight, but until the rules change routine supersonic flights that dramatically speed up travel times—San Francisco to Tokyo in six hours instead of ten—will remain a dream.

    The report also discusses reforms to the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA. NEPA causes significant litigation and delays on projects from dams to solar panels, but a few changes could alleviate much of the problem.

    First, NEPA should be amended so that federal agencies can issue a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) for projects without first conducting a longer, more complicated Environmental Assessment (EA). Currently, even if an agency believes a FONSI is appropriate, it still must conduct an EA. The proposed change does not preclude agencies from conducting an EA if they think it is necessary, it just does not require one.

    NEPA could also add geothermal projects to its list of categorical exclusions. Certain oil and gas projects are already excluded, and since geothermal projects are conducted in much the same way the exclusion makes sense. Geothermal is a relatively clean source of energy and new projects provide jobs for oil and gas workers looking to transition to a new industry since they require many of the same skills.

    In another study, Mario Loyola of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) makes additional recommendations to reform NEPA. He notes that the uncertainty of the NEPA process causes significant social losses and that the “uncertainty has many sources, most important of which is litigation risk, which maximizes the amount of time and resources that agencies devote to processing permit applications out of all proportion to the environmental costs and benefits at stake.”

    Loyola makes several recommendations to speed up the NEPA process and reduce litigation risk. First, Congress should allow project developers to prepare the materials needed for agency permit certification. If agencies take too long to issue or deny a permit based on these materials, developers should be given provisional permits to start construction subject to monitoring.

    Second, Congress should create a unified federal permitting process so project developers do not need to go through a half-dozen different agency processes to get the necessary approvals.

    Next, agencies should be held to a substantial-compliance standard so that provided reports and materials that are mostly right enable a project to move forward. Congress should also tighten the rules on standing to prevent parties that are clearly not affected by a project from holding it up with a lawsuit.

    Finally, Congress should establish programmatic and general permits for major categories of infrastructure projects that have similar environmental impacts. This would expedite the permitting process.

    Additional reforms mentioned in the CGO report include immigration reform, ideas for expanding broadband access, policy changes to protect the environment, and suggestions for increasing the resiliency of America’s electricity grids. Some state and local reforms not mentioned that would also improve economic growth include zoning and land-use reforms, occupational licensing reforms, and pro-growth tax reforms.

    So far, President Biden’s economic agenda has been the most anti-growth of the last 40 years. His administration’s barrage of regulations and profligate spending helped create the highest inflation rate in two generations. The Fed has been forced to raise interest rates in response, bringing us closer to a recession.

    It does not have to be this way. America’s workers and entrepreneurs are still capable of great things, but they cannot achieve them while held back by the weight of our current anti-growth policies. With the right policy reforms, we can remove the barriers people face and achieve abundance.

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    Adam A. Millsap, Contributor

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