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  • A Plan to Outlaw Abortion Everywhere

    A Plan to Outlaw Abortion Everywhere

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    The year 2022 was a triumphant one for the anti-abortion movement. After half a century, the Supreme Court did what had once seemed impossible when it overturned Roe v. Wade, stripping Americans of the constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy. Now movement activists are feeling bolder than ever: Their next goal will be ending legal abortion in America once and for all. A federal ban, which would require 60 votes in the Senate, is unlikely. But some activists believe there’s a simpler way: the enforcement by a Trump Justice Department of a 150-year-old obscenity law.

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    The Comstock Act, originally passed in 1873 to combat vice and debauchery, prohibits the mailing of any “article or thing” that is “designed, adapted, or intended for producing abortion, or for any indecent or immoral use.” In the law’s first 100 years, a series of court cases narrowed its scope, and in 1971, Congress removed most of its restrictions on contraception. But the rest of the Comstock Act has remained on the books. The law has sat dormant, considered virtually unenforceable, since the Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973.

    Following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022, the United States Postal Service asked the Justice Department for clarification: Could its workers legally transport abortion-inducing medications to states with bans? The DOJ replied by issuing a memo stipulating that abortion pills can be legally mailed as long as the sender does not intend for the drugs to be used unlawfully. And whether or not the drugs will be used within the bounds of state law, the memo notes, would be difficult for a sender to know (the pills have medical uses unrelated to abortion).

    If Donald Trump is reelected president, many prominent opponents of abortion rights will demand that his DOJ issue its own memo, reinterpreting the law to mean the exact opposite: that Comstock is a de facto ban on shipping medication that could end a pregnancy, regardless of its intended use (this would apply to the USPS and to private carriers like UPS and FedEx). “The language is black-and-white. It should be enforced,” Steven H. Aden, the general counsel at Americans United for Life, told me. A broader interpretation of the Comstock Act might also mean that a person receiving abortion pills would be committing a federal crime and, if prosecuted, could face prison time. Federal prosecutors could bring charges against abortion-pill manufacturers, providers receiving pills in the mail, or even individuals.

    The hopes of some activists go further. Their ultimate aim in reviving the Comstock Act is to use it to shut down every abortion facility “in all 50 states,” Mark Lee Dickson, a Texas pastor and anti-abortion advocate, told me. Taken literally, Comstock could be applied to prevent the transport of all supplies related to medical and surgical abortions, making it illegal to ship necessary tools and medications to hospitals and clinics, with no exceptions for other medical uses, such as miscarriage care. Conditions that are easily treatable with modern medicine could, without access to these supplies, become life-threatening.

    Legal experts say that the activists’ strategy could, in theory, succeed—at least in bringing the issue to court. “It’s not hypothetical anymore,” Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the UC Davis School of Law, told me. “Because it’s already on the books, and it’s not ridiculous to interpret it this way, [the possibility] is not far-fetched at all.”

    Eventually, the Supreme Court would likely face pressure to weigh in. Even though a majority of the Court’s justices have supported abortion restrictions and ruled to overturn Roe, it’s unclear how they’d rule on this particular case. If they were to uphold the broadest interpretation of the Comstock Act, doctors even in states without bans could struggle to legally obtain the supplies they need to provide abortions and perform other procedures.

    This is what activists want. The question is whether Trump would accede to their demands. After years of championing the anti-abortion cause, the former president seemed to pivot when he blamed anti-abortion Republicans’ extremism for the party’s poor performance in the 2022 midterm elections (only a small fraction of Americans favors a complete abortion ban). Recently, he’s come across as more moderate on the issue than his primary opponents by condemning Florida’s six-week abortion ban and endorsing compromise with Democrats.

    As president, Trump might choose not to enforce Comstock at all. Or he could order his DOJ to enforce it with discretion, promising to go after drug manufacturers and Planned Parenthood instead of individuals. It’s hard to be certain of any outcome: Trump has always been more interested in appeasing his base than reaching Americans in the ideological middle. He might well be in favor of aggressively enforcing the Comstock Act, in order to continue bragging, as he has in the past, that he is “the most pro-life president in American history.”


    This article appears in the January/February 2024 print edition with the headline “A Plan to Outlaw Abortion Everywhere.”

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    Elaine Godfrey

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  • Dobbs’s Confounding Effect on Abortion Rates

    Dobbs’s Confounding Effect on Abortion Rates

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    When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Diana Greene Foster made a painful prediction: She estimated that one in four women who wanted an abortion wouldn’t be able to get one. Foster, a demographer at UC San Francisco, told me that she’d based her expectation on her knowledge of how abortion rates decline when women lose insurance coverage or have to travel long distances after clinics close.

    And she was well aware of what this statistic meant. She’d spent 10 years following 1,000 women recruited from clinic waiting rooms. Some got an abortion, but others were turned away. The “turnaways” were more likely to suffer serious health consequences, live in poverty, and stay in contact with violent partners. With nearly 1 million abortions performed in America each year, Foster worried that hundreds of thousands of women would be forced to continue unwanted pregnancies. “Having a baby before they’re ready kind of knocks people off their life course,” she told me.

    But now, more than a year removed from the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, Foster has revised her estimate. After seeing early reports of women traveling across state lines and ordering pills online, she now estimates that about 5 percent of women who want an abortion cannot get one. Indeed, two recent reports show that although Dobbs upended abortion access in America, many women have nevertheless found ways to end their pregnancy. A study by the Guttmacher Institute, a research group that supports abortion rights, signals that national abortion rates have not meaningfully fallen since 2020. Instead, they seem to have gone up a bit. A report released this week by the Society of Family Planning, another pro-abortion-rights group, shows that an increase in abortions in states that allow the procedure more than offset the post-Dobbs drop-off in states that closed down clinics.

    Some of this increase may be a result of trends that predate Dobbs: Abortion rates in the U.S. have been going up since 2017. But the reports suggest that the increase may also be due to travel by women who live in red states and the expanded access to abortion that many blue states enacted after the ruling. Still, it is not yet clear exactly how much each of these factors is contributing to the observed increase—and how many women who want an abortion are still unable to get one.

    Alison Norris, a co-chair of the Society of Family Planning study, told me that she fears that the public will “become complacent” if they see the likely increase in abortion rates and believe that everyone has access. “Feeling like the problem isn’t really that big of a deal because the numbers seem to have returned to what they were pre-Dobbs is a misunderstanding of the data,” she said.


    It seems illogical that more than a dozen states would ban abortion and national rates would hardly change. But even as red states have choked off access, blue states have widened it. And the data show that women have flooded the remaining clinics and ordered abortion pills from pharmacies that ship across the country. More than half of all abortions are done using medication, a pattern that began even before the Dobbs decision.

    “It just doesn’t work to make abortion illegal,” Linda Prine, a doctor at Mount Sinai Hospital, told me. “There may be some people who are having babies that they didn’t want to have, but when you shift resources all over the place, and all kinds of other avenues open up, there’s also people who are getting abortions that might not have gotten them otherwise.”

    With mail-order abortion pills, “it’s this weird moment where abortion might, ironically, be more available than it’s ever been,” Rachel Rebouché, an expert in abortion law and the dean of the Temple University Beasley School of Law, told me.

    The Guttmacher Institute sampled abortion clinics to estimate the change in abortion counts between the first halves of 2020 and 2023. Areas surrounding states with post-Roe bans saw their abortion numbers surge over that period of time. In Colorado, which is near South Dakota, a state with a ban, abortions increased by about 89 percent, compared with an 8 percent rise in the prior three-year period. New Mexico saw abortions climb by 220 percent. (For comparison, before Dobbs, the state recorded a 27 percent hike from 2017 to 2020.) Even states in solidly blue regions saw their abortion rates grow over the three-year interval from 2020 to 2023: Guttmacher estimates that California’s abortion clinics provided 16 percent more abortions, and New York’s about 18 percent more.

    Some shifts predated the court’s intervention. After a decades-long decline, abortions began ticking upward around 2017. In 2020, they increased by 8 percent compared with 2017. The researchers I spoke with for this story told me that they couldn’t point to a decisive cause for the shift that started six years ago; they suggested rising child-care costs and Trump-era cuts to Medicaid coverage as possible factors. But the rise in abortion rates reflects a broader change: Women seem to want fewer children than they used to. Caitlin Myers, a professor at Middlebury College, told me that abortion rates might have increased even more if the Court hadn’t reversed Roe. “It looks like more people just want abortions than did a few years ago,” she said. “What we don’t know is, would they have gone up even more if there weren’t people trapped in Texas or Louisiana?”

    One of the most significant factors in maintaining post-Roe abortion access dates from the latter half of 2021. As the coronavirus pandemic clobbered the health-care system, the FDA suspended its requirement that women pick up abortion medications in person. A few months later, it made the switch permanent. The timing was opportune: People became accustomed to receiving all of their medical care through virtual appointments at the same time that they could get abortion pills delivered to their doorstep, Rebouché told me. People no longer have to travel to a clinic and cross anti-abortion picket lines. But access to mifepristone, one of the most commonly used drugs for medication abortions, is under threat. After an anti-abortion group challenged the FDA’s approval of the drug, a federal court instated regulations that would require women to visit a doctor three times to get the pills, making access much more difficult. The Supreme Court is weighing whether to hear an appeal, and has frozen the 2021 rules in place while it decides.

    But paradoxically, several of the factors that may have contributed to the rise in abortion rates seem to have sprung directly from the Dobbs decision. In the year since the ruling, six blue states have enacted laws that allow practitioners to ship abortion pills anywhere, even to deep-red Texas. Although these laws haven’t yet been litigated to test whether they’re truly impenetrable, doctors have relied on them to mail medication across the country. Aid Access, an online service that operates outside the formal health-care system, receives requests for about 6,500 abortion pills a month. (The pills cost $150, but Aid Access sends them for free to people who can’t pay.) Demand for Aid Access pills in states that ban or restrict medication abortion has mushroomed since the Dobbs decision, rising from an average of about 82 requests per day before Dobbs to 214 after. The Guttmacher report doesn’t count abortions that take place in this legally fuzzy space, suggesting that actual abortion figures could be higher.

    As the Supreme Court revoked the constitutional right to an abortion and turned the issue back to the states, it also hardened the resolve of abortion-rights supporters. In the five months after Roe fell, the National Network of Abortion Funds received four times the money from donations than it got in all of 2020. People often donate as states encroach on abortion rights. In many cases, they bankrolled people’s travel out of ban states. Community networks also gained experience in shuttling people out of state to get abortions. “There’s definitely been innovation in the face of abortion bans,” Abigail Aiken, who documents abortions that occur outside of the formal health-care system, told me.

    Some researchers believe that the Dobbs decision has actually convinced more women to get abortions. Abortion-rights advocacy groups have erected highway billboards that promise Abortion is ok. Public opinion has tilted in favor of abortion rights. Ushma Upadhyay, a professor at UC San Francisco, told me that California’s rising abortion rates cannot all be due to people traveling from states that ban abortion. “It’s also got to be an increase among Californians,” she said. “It’s just a lot of attention, destigmatization, and funding that has been made available. Even before Dobbs, there was a lot of unmet need for abortion in this country.”

    Abortion used to be a topic that was “talked about in the shadows,” Greer Donley, an expert in abortion law and a professor at the University of Pittsburgh, told me. “Dobbs kind of blew that up.” Still, she believes that it’s unlikely that people are getting significantly more abortions simply because of changes within blue states. Just as obstacles don’t seem to have stopped people from seeking abortions, efforts that moderately expand access are unlikely to lead people to get an abortion, she said.

    The people I spoke with emphasized that even though overall abortion rates might be going up, not everyone who wants the procedure can get it. People who don’t speak English or Spanish, who don’t have internet access, or who are in jail still have trouble getting abortions. “What I foresee is a bunch of Black women being stuck pregnant who didn’t want to be pregnant, in a state where it’s incredibly dangerous to be Black and pregnant,” Laurie Bertram Roberts, a founder of the Mississippi Reproductive Freedom Fund, told me.

    Bertram Roberts’s fund used to provide travel stipends of up to $250. Now women need three times that. Most people travel from Mississippi to a clinic in Carbondale, Illinois. The trip takes two days—48 hours that women must take off work and find child care for. “If you are in the middle of Texas, and you have to travel to Illinois, even if funds covered all the costs, to say that abortion is more accessible for that person seems callous and wrong,” Donley told me.

    Many women spend weeks waiting for an abortion. “It is excruciating to be carrying a pregnancy that one knows they’re planning to end,” Upadhyay said. And although studies show that abortion pills are safe, women who take them can bleed for up to three weeks, and they may worry that they’ll be prosecuted if they seek help at a hospital. Only two states—Nevada and South Carolina—explicitly criminalize women who give themselves an abortion (and few women have been charged under the laws), but the legislation contributes to a climate of fear.

    More than a year out from the Dobbs decision, the grainy picture of abortion access is coming into focus. With the benefit of distance, the story seems not to be solely one of diminished access, widespread surveillance, and forced births, as the ruling’s opponents had warned. For most Americans, abortion might be more accessible than it’s ever been. But for another, more vulnerable group, abortion is a far-off privilege. “If I lived in my birth state—I was born in Minnesota—my work would be one hundred times easier,” Bertram Roberts told me, later adding, “I think about that a lot, about how the two states that bookend my life are so different.”

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    Rose Horowitch

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  • Nikki Haley’s Dilemma Is Also the Republicans’ Problem

    Nikki Haley’s Dilemma Is Also the Republicans’ Problem

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    Republicans have had 10 months to hammer out a coherent post-Roe message on abortion. You would think they’d have nailed it by now.

    Yet on Tuesday, Nikki Haley set out to declare her position on the issue—and proceeded to be about as clear as concrete.

    She began with plausible precision. “I want to save as many lives and help as many moms as possible,” the former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations told reporters gathered at the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America headquarters, in Northern Virginia—a press event billed as a “major policy speech.” But her statements quickly got squishier. It’s good that some states have passed anti-abortion laws in the past year, she said. And as for the states that have reacted by enshrining abortion-rights protections? Well, she wishes “that weren’t the case.”

    And then she seemed to channel Veep’s Selina Meyer. “Different people in different places are taking different paths,” Haley said, with a self-assurance that belied the indeterminacy of her words.

    Questioning whether any national anti-abortion legislation would ever pass, Haley did gesture at a need for some action. “To do that at the federal level, the next president must find national consensus,” she said. As for what that might look like, she had no words. And she took no questions.

    Some people seemed to like Haley’s speech, in a tepid way. She sounded human when she described how her husband had been adopted, and how she’d struggled with infertility. “Ms. Haley deserves credit for confronting the subject head on, with a speech that wasn’t sanctimonious or censorious,” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote, before concluding, “The party could do worse than Ms. Haley’s pitch.” But it could do better—or at least do with something more specific.

    Leaders of the self-described pro-life movement were predictably annoyed at Haley’s conciliatory-sounding vagueness. “Disappointing speech by @NikkiHaley today. Leads with compromise & defeatism, not vision & courage,” Lila Rose, who heads the group Live Action, tweeted. “We agree that consensus is important, but to achieve consensus we will need to stake out a principled position,” wrote Kristan Hawkins, the president of Students for Life of America.

    Even Haley’s hosts seemed on the wrong page. “We are clear on Ambassador Haley’s commitment to acting on the American consensus against late-term abortion by protecting unborn children by at least 15 weeks,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said in a statement sent to me. But a few hours later, Team Haley emailed me to correct the record: “She committed to working to find a consensus on banning late-term abortion. No specific weeks,” Nachama Soloveichik, Haley’s communications director, wrote. Not only did Haley alienate both sides—she confused them!

    Haley is in a tough spot, as are all of the Republican presidential wannabes. They each have their own personal convictions on abortion; former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, has been outspoken in his support for a national ban. But they’re up against an issue that seems to have cost their party a string of recent elections. Most Americans believe that abortion should be accessible, with some limits.

    The “consensus” position, then, is somewhere in the foggy zone between no abortion ever and abortion whenever. But primary elections tend to push candidates toward one extreme or another. “The gap between what the base demands and what swing voters will tolerate has gotten really wide,” Sarah Longwell, the publisher of the Never Trump site The Bulwark, told me. “Nowhere is this more true than on abortion.”

    What all politicians need to do “is settle on a position they believe they can defend, and they need to repeat it consistently and clearly,” Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, told me. “Any politician whose position on abortion is vague will be wrapped around the axle eventually with questions and doubts about where they actually stand.”

    Some GOP candidates have followed Ayres’s advice. But much axle-wrapping has occurred already in the early days of the 2024 primary season.

    Asked on the campaign trail whether he’d support a 15-week federal ban on abortion, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina told CBS, “I do believe that we should have a robust conversation about what’s happening on a very important topic,” before pivoting so hard to an anecdote about Janet Yellen that I thought he’d need a neck brace. In a follow-up interview, Scott backtracked, clarifying that as president, he would “literally sign the most conservative pro-life legislation” Congress sent to his desk.

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is expected to mount a presidential bid, did approve a very conservative state law recently—a six-week abortion ban. But he signed that legislation in the dead of night earlier this month, while most people in Tallahassee were probably in bed. (By contrast, last year, he celebrated the signing of a 15-week ban with a big party at a church.) The following day, DeSantis gave a speech at a Christian university full of students who are opposed to abortion, yet said nothing about his major legislative achievement. He’s mostly stayed quiet about it since—even at glad-handing events in early primary states.

    So far, the only confirmed presidential candidate who seems clear on his position and keenly aware of the political optics is Donald Trump. Despite being hailed by anti-abortion activists as the “most pro-life president” in history, Trump has never been rigid on abortion (probably because he supported abortion rights for most of his life as a public figure), and he doesn’t talk much about the issue now. But a spokesperson told The Washington Post recently that Trump “believes that the Supreme Court, led by the three Justices which he supported, got it right when they ruled this is an issue that should be decided at the State level.” Shorter Trump: I’ve done my bit—it’s up to the states now. God bless.

    If any national consensus on abortion exists, the GOP strategist Ayres said, Trump’s position “is pretty close” to it. Trump has always seemed to have “a lizard-brain sense of where the voters are,” Longwell said. “He has a relationship to the base, and he doesn’t have to pitch what he believes.” And, unlike DeSantis, Trump has never signed a law banning abortion at any stage, so it’ll be harder to pin him down. Sure, there’s an activist class that would like to see abortion banned in all cases. To them, Trump could reply, You got your justices. You’re welcome.

    Right now Trump and his lizard brain have a commanding lead in the GOP primary. His victory would set up an interesting general-election situation—a fitting one for our complicated post-Roe country: a former president who once personally supported abortion rights and is now politically opposed to them running against a sitting president whose own position on abortion is the exact opposite.

    Until a Republican presidential nominee emerges, we’ll hear many more Haley-esque platitudes that sound thoughtful and weighty but ultimately aren’t.

    “Whether we can save more lives nationally depends entirely on doing what no one has done to date,” Haley told reporters on Tuesday, before wrapping up her speech with—you could almost hear a drumroll—“finding consensus.” The waffling will continue, in other words, until the primary concludes.

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    Elaine Godfrey

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  • The Other Abortion Pill

    The Other Abortion Pill

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    In the months since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, demand for medication abortion has soared. The method already accounted for more than half of all abortions in the United States before the Court’s decision; now reproductive-rights activists and sites such as Plan C, which shares information about medication abortion by mail, are fielding an explosion in interest in abortion pills. As authorized by the FDA, medication abortion consists of two drugs. The first one, mifepristone, blocks the hormone progesterone, which is necessary for a pregnancy to continue. The second, misoprostol, brings on contractions of the uterus that expel its contents. The combination is, according to studies conducted in the U.S., somewhere between 95 percent and 99 percent effective in ending a pregnancy and is extremely safe.

    The second drug, misoprostol, can also safely end a pregnancy on its own. That method has long been considered a significantly less effective alternative to the FDA-approved protocol. But a growing body of research has begun to challenge the conventional thinking. In situations where people use pills to end a pregnancy at home, studies have found far higher rates of success for misoprostol-only abortions than were found in clinical settings. One recent study in Nigeria and Argentina showed misoprostol-only abortion to be 99 percent effective.

    Even before new restrictions began to ripple across the U.S., mifepristone—often referred to as “the abortion pill”—was tightly controlled by the FDA, which requires that the drug be dispensed only by doctors certified to prescribe it and only to patients who’ve signed an agency-approved agreement. As efforts to ban that drug intensify, the relative availability of misoprostol, which can be obtained at pharmacies in every state and prescribed by any doctor, could make misoprostol alone a more common option for women seeking abortions, legally or clandestinely.

    Already, the Austria-based nonprofit Aid Access, which helps women in the U.S. order pills through the mail, helped thousands of women procure misoprostol-only regimens in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, when shipments of mifepristone were disrupted. At least one U.S. abortion provider, Carafem, has been offering its patients a misoprostol-only option for close to two years, and other reproductive-health groups are now considering offering the same regimen. This approach follows a path that has been well established in places around the world, where mifepristone has been scarce or unavailable, but in the U.S., it represents a real shift in abortion provision.

    If in the past mifepristone has garnered the bulk of attention from politicians and the public in the U.S., that focus may owe in part to an oft-told story about the origins of “the abortion pill” and its lone inventor, the renowned French researcher Dr. Étienne-Émile Baulieu. The reality is that of the two drugs, misoprostol has always mattered more.


    For his work on mifepristone, Baulieu won one of the most prestigious prizes in medicine, whose recipients tend to be discussed as candidates for a Nobel Prize, and received France’s Legion of Honor. A lengthy profile in The New York Times Magazine called him “a different kind of scientist.” And though the chemists George Teutsch and Alain Belanger actually synthesized the compound, Baulieu became, to American audiences, “the father of the abortion pill.”

    Yet mifepristone is not, by itself, a highly effective abortifacient. Taken alone, the drug ends a pregnancy only about two-thirds of the time, which is why it has always been administered in combination with a prostaglandin—a drug that mimics the function of hormones that promote menstrual cramping and inflammation.

    For years, doctors in Europe had been administering mifepristone with a prostaglandin called sulprostone. The combination was nearly 100 percent effective, but required multiple in-person visits to a clinic or hospital because sulprostone could only be given by injection. “Everyone had been looking for a prostaglandin that didn’t have to be either injected or kept frozen,” says Beverly Winikoff, the founder of Gynuity Health Projects, whose research on medication abortion helped win FDA approval in the United States.

    In Brazil, women had already found one. No individual, or individuals, have ever been widely credited for that discovery, the way Baulieu is credited for mifepristone. But scholars agree that the practice began in the country’s impoverished northeast soon after the drug went on the market in 1986.

    Manufactured by G.D. Searle & Company, misoprostol was developed to treat stomach ulcers. To women in Brazil, where abortion was and remains severely restricted, the warning on the label, to avoid taking the drug while pregnant, advertised its potential as an abortifacient. And when they found the drug safer and more effective than other clandestine methods, misoprostol’s popularity exploded. (To state the obvious, no one should interpret drug warnings for pregnant people as covert advertisements for effective abortion alternatives.)

    Soon, doctors in Brazil reported seeing fewer women with severe abortion-related complications, and Brazilian researchers began documenting the drug’s off-label use. The first such study appeared in a 1991 letter to the editor of The Lancet: Helena Coelho and her colleagues at the University of Ceara had found that knowledge of misoprostol’s capacity to induce abortion had “spread rapidly” among both women and pharmacy personnel. But it had also reached government officials, who limited sales to authorized pharmacies and, in one state, banned misoprostol entirely.

    That same year, Baulieu, the French researcher, announced that he had devised a simpler way to use mifepristone—by combining it with misoprostol, which, unlike sulprostone, could be taken by mouth. Writing in The New England Journal of Medicine, Baulieu did reference misoprostol’s use in Brazil, but only as an example of what not to do. Citing anecdotal reports of cranial malformations in infants exposed to misoprostol in utero, he and colleagues claimed that administering misoprostol alone would risk “embryonic abnormalities,” adding that G.D. Searle “strongly disapproved” of the practice.

    The reports of cranial anomalies were never confirmed. But Searle did take pains to prevent the use of misoprostol for abortion, at one point publicly warning doctors in the U.S. against administering the drug to pregnant women. Over time, researchers established other important uses for misoprostol, such as treating miscarriage and preventing postpartum hemorrhage. Yet during the lifetime of its patent, the company refused to research or register the drug for any reproductive-health indication.

    Meanwhile, Brazilian newspapers had seized on the dangers that Baulieu had cited, fueling fears that failed abortions would create “a generation of monsters.” That in turn provided Brazilian authorities with a public-health rationale for regulating misoprostol as a controlled substance, the “possession or supply” of which carries penalties even more punitive than those for drug trafficking. But through informal networks, feminist activists continued helping women access both misoprostol and information about how to safely use it at home. More than three decades later, experts now credit Brazil as the birthplace of self-managed medication abortion.


    In the past few years, researchers have more formally documented what these informal networks established. In clinical trials, medication abortion with misoprostol alone was effective in completing first-trimester abortion roughly 80 percent of the time. As a rule, “We think about clinical-trials data as the gold standard,” says Caitlin Gerdts, a vice president at Ibis Reproductive Health and a senior author on the study in Nigeria and Argentina. Yet when researchers have examined misoprostol’s use in nonclinical settings, they have found far higher rates of success, with 93 to 100 percent of participants reporting complete abortions using only misoprostol. Given the many studies showing high effectiveness in self-managed settings, Gerdts says, “I think it’s time to reconsider the idea of the clinical trials data as being paramount.”

    One reason for the greater effectiveness of misoprostol alone in studies of self-managed abortion may have to do with how the studies were designed. “The problem with clinical trials is that often when we ask somebody to follow up in a week or two weeks, the body hasn’t had enough time to expel all of the products of conception,” says Dr. Angel Foster, a health-science professor at the University of Ottawa, whose work on the Thailand-Myanmar border was the first to rigorously investigate the effectiveness of misoprostol alone for abortion outside a formal health system. “If there’s a smudge on an ultrasound, it’s not that there’s a continuing pregnancy—it’s just debris. But rather than let the uterus absorb it or expel it, we do an evacuation procedure and we count it as a failure.” In studies of self-managed abortion, she says, the follow-up period tends to be longer—three or four weeks—and surgical intervention may not always be an option.

    “I do think because of the way it’s been treated in clinical trials, misoprostol has been defined as much less effective than we now believe it to be,” Foster says. “We talk about mifepristone as ‘the abortion pill,’ but I think it’s more appropriate to think of it as a pretreatment or an adjunct therapy. Because it’s really the misoprostol that’s doing the lion’s share of the work.”

    Elizabeth Raymond, a senior medical associate at Gynuity and the lead author of a systematic review of clinical trials on the use of misoprostol alone for early abortion, acknowledges that the clinical studies may have been too quick to intervene. But she says the shorter follow-up period was not without reason. Using ultrasound and a blood test to measure the amount of hCG, or human chorionic gonadotropin, doctors can diagnose a complete abortion “quite quickly, certainly within one or two weeks,” she says, “and the researchers wanted to do the assessments as soon as reasonable. They saw no sense in delaying.” Raymond suspects that misoprostol alone isn’t quite as effective as reported in the study in Nigeria and Argentina, in part because that study relied on its subjects to self-report whether the abortion was complete. “I think it’s an intriguing study, and it’s true that misoprostol alone is more effective than we thought,” she says, “but I think the general feeling is, if you can get both drugs, you should do that. The combination is more effective, and it may cause less cramping and bleeding.”

    Those side effects aren’t a safety concern, says Dr. Julie Amaon, the medical director of Just the Pill, which delivers abortion medication to people in Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, and Minnesota. “But it’s something to keep in mind,” she says, adding that anyone self-managing an abortion at home should adhere to the WHO-recommended protocol and follow up with a doctor, whether in person, by phone, or by text, to ensure that the process is complete. In the U.S., the FDA has approved only the two-drug regimen; although the WHO’s recommendations also suggest a preference for medication abortion with both drugs, that agency does recommend misoprostol-only abortion “in settings where mifepristone is not available.”

    Right now, lawmakers across the U.S. are working to put both drugs out of reach. Fourteen states now fully or partially ban both mifepristone and misoprostol. Of the two drugs, though, misoprostol is still more easily obtained, either by prescription in pharmacies or via nonprofit groups in the U.S. and overseas. The Biden administration has said that it intends to maintain access to medication abortion, but so far has not acted to ease the stricter regulations on mifepristone. As long as those restrictions remain in place, ending a pregnancy with misoprostol alone could become a more common choice for people with few options.

    According to the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive-health-research group that supports abortion rights, though the rate is difficult to measure, in the past self-managed abortions probably haven’t occurred in the U.S. on a large scale. But as conditions in red states come to resemble those in Brazil, the practice could become more and more common. In this way, says Mariana Prandini Assis, a Brazilian social scientist who has written extensively on abortion, the fall of Roe may well lead to the normalization in America of self-managed abortion with pills—a choice once thought of as a last resort or an act of desperation. For that reason, she says, the Brazilian women who pioneered the use of misoprostol for abortion should be considered the “other inventors of ‘the abortion pill.’”

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    Patrick Adams

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