NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market climbed again Tuesday on hopes for a coming cut to interest rates.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9% after breaking out of a morning lull and is back within 1.8% of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.7%.
Stocks got a boost from easing yields in the bond market. Lower interest rates can cover up many sins in financial markets, including prices going too high, and hopes are strong that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate at its next meeting to juice the economy further.
A raft of mixed economic data on Tuesday left traders betting on a nearly 83% probability that the Fed will cut in December, according to data from CME Group. That’s roughly the same as a day before and up sharply from the coin flip’s chance that they saw just a week ago.
Easier rates can boost the economy by encouraging households and companies to borrow more and investors to pay higher prices for investments than they would otherwise.
A third report, meanwhile, said inflation at the wholesale level was a touch worse in September than economists expected, but a closely tracked underlying trend was slightly better. That’s important because lower interest rates can make inflation worse, and high inflation is the main deterrent that could keep the Fed from cutting rates.
After taking all the data together, economists suggested the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, could be leaning toward cutting rates on Dec. 10. The Fed has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.
“Taking a pause on rate cuts would probably do more damage to sentiment than a cut would help,” according to Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, who also said “Powell doesn’t need to be the Grinch that stole Christmas.”
Easier interest rates can give particularly big boosts to smaller companies, because many of them need to borrow to grow. The Russell 2000 index of the smallest U.S. stocks jumped 2.1% to lead the market.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, several retailers leaped after delivering stronger profits for the summer than analysts expected.
Abercrombie & Fitch soared 37.5% after the apparel seller reported a better profit than expected. It also raised the bottom end of its forecasted range for revenue and profit over the full year.
Kohl’s surged 42.5% after reporting a profit for the latest quarter, when analysts were expecting a loss. Best Buy rose 5.3% after boosting its profit forecast for the full year following a better-than-expected third quarter, citing strength across computing, gaming and mobile phones.
Dick’s Sporting Goods erased an early drop of 4% to add 0.2%. It raised its forecast for results at its Dick’s stores, though its purchase of Foot Locker is requiring some work. Executive Chairman Ed Stack said the company is “cleaning out the garage” at Foot Locker by clearing inventory, closing poorly performing stores and making other moves.
Alphabet rose another 1.5%, continuing a strong run on excitement about its recently released Gemini AI model. Chinese giant Alibaba, meanwhile, saw its stock that trades in the United States fall 2.3% after losing an early gain. It reported stronger revenue than analysts expected for the latest quarter thanks in part to the AI boom, but its overall profit fell short of forecasts.
Some chip companies dropped sharply following a report from The Information that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions of dollars on AI chips from Alphabet instead of them. Nvidia sank 2.6% and Advanced Micro Devices dropped 4.1%.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 60.76 points to 6,765.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664.18 to 47,112.45, and the Nasdaq composite gained 153.59 to 23,025.59.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.00% from 4.04% late Monday.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX returned 1%, and stocks in Shanghai climbed 0.9% for two of the world’s bigger moves.
Jim Cramer’s daily rapid fire looks at stocks in the news outside the CNBC Investing Club portfolio. Lowe’s : The home improvement retailer beat on earnings but missed on revenues. Lowe’s also cut its full-year outlook. Shares were higher earlier but turned modestly negative. “The stock is hanging because of the Federal Reserve. No one wants to this stock ahead of Jackson Hole,” Jim Cramer said Tuesday. Lowe’s says it needs housing to be better. “The Fed lowers [rates], we get transactions.” Medtronic : The medical devices giant raised its full-year outlook after beating quarterly estimates. The stock rose 3%. “I know that Medtronic has been one of my faves,” Cramer said. “I’m not sure about this one.” Amer Sports : The company behind the Salomon and Wilson brands delivered better than expected quarter. The stock jumped more than 12%. “This one has been one that’s been a disappointment. Maybe it’s finally showing some life,” Cramer said. Vornado Realty : The real estate investment trust got a double upgrade to buy from sell at Evercore ISI. Shares rose modestly to a 52-week high. Many people think “it’s a bridge too far to think that city real estate can come back,” Cramer said. He stressed that’s not the case. “It’s good.” Abercrombie & Fitch : The retailer was named a positive catalyst idea at Citi. The stock was little changed. “The company has been money over and over and over again.”
A person walks past a sales advertisement at Saks Off 5th department store ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday sales in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 21, 2023.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
There’s a dark cloud hanging over Black Friday.
A slew of retailers have issued tepid, cautious or downright disappointing fourth-quarter outlooks over the past few weeks, casting a pall over the crucial holiday season right as they gear up for the biggest shopping day of the year.
The companies, which include everyone from luxury goods giant Tapestry to big boxer BJ’s Wholesale Club, cited a host of dynamics that led them to reduce their outlooks or issue forecasts that came in below expectations.
Some, such as Best Buy and Nordstrom, cited the uncertain state of the consumer following months of persistent inflation, while others, such as Hanesbrands, said demand is simply drying up for its basic T-shirts, socks and underwear as wholesalers look to keep inventories in check.
If there’s one theme that captures the commentary, it’s caution, and while some retailers may have been overly conservative with their outlooks, the resounding lack of confidence spells trouble for the holiday quarter and raises questions about the overall health of the economy.
“Consumers are still spending, but pressures like higher interest rates, the resumption of student loan repayments, increased credit card debt and reduced savings rates have left them with less discretionary income, forcing them to make trade-offs,” Target CEO Brian Cornell told analysts on a call last week.
“As we look at recent trends across the retail industry, dollar sales are being driven by higher prices with consumers buying fewer units per trip. In fact, overall unit demand across the industry has been down 2% to 4% in recent quarters, and the industry has experienced seven consecutive quarters of declines in discretionary dollars and units,” he said.
When asked about the upcoming holiday season, Cornell said it was too soon to weigh in on early sales, saying only that the company was “watching the trends carefully.”
The holiday shopping season over the past couple of years has seen outsize growth brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, which gave consumers stimulus payments and an opportunity to pad their bank accounts while they were stuck at home and unable to travel or dine out.
In 2020, holiday spend was up 9.1% from the year prior, according to the National Retail Federation. In 2021, spend was up 12.7% year over year, and in 2022, it was up 5.4%.
As 2023 comes to a close, savings accounts dwindle and consumers continue to face inflation and high interest rates, that growth in holiday spend is expected to slow to 3% to 4%, according to the NRF. That’s consistent with the slower growth rates seen between 2010 and 2019 in the lead up to the pandemic.
The expected slowdown has led many retailers to approach the holiday season with more caution than Wall Street anticipated.
On Monday, Bank of America’s consumer team found that out of 43 retailers that issued earnings forecasts, 37, or 86%, came in light of Street expectations.
Take Walmart, for example. The retailer struck a cautious tone with its outlook, which came in below expectations, after it saw consumer spending weaken toward the end of October. Last week, it said it expects adjusted earnings per share of $6.40 to $6.48 for the year, lower than the $6.48 analysts had projected, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
“Halloween was good overall,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said on a call with CNBC. “But in the last couple of weeks of October, there were certainly some trends in the business that made us pause and kind of rethink the health of the consumer.”
For some retailers, even good news wasn’t cheery enough.
Dick’s Sporting Goods raised its forecast Tuesday after posting strong top- and bottom-line beats and said it now expects full-year earnings per share of between $11.45 and $12.05, compared with the $11.27 to $12.39 range that analysts had projected, according to LSEG.
But compared to its strong third-quarter results, the outlook came off as tempered.
The retailer said it was “excited” for the holiday but couched that optimism with executives repeatedly noting they were looking forward to the things “within our control” — a refrain heard four times during the hour-long call.
“We are very excited about what we have within our control for Q4. Our products are in stock. We’ve got tremendous gifts … and the teams are pumped to deliver an amazing holiday experience,” CEO Lauren Hobart said on a call with analysts. “We’re balancing all of that with caution about the macroeconomic environment and the consumer, because we know that consumers are going through a lot right now. So, I think, we’ve been reasonably cautious in our guidance.”
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Amazon — The e-commerce behemoth slipped 2.4% after CNBC’s David Faber reported founder and Executive chair Jeff Bezos is expected to be “aggressive” in selling more shares of Amazon. The total sale could amount to more than $1 billion, sources told Faber. Burlington Stores — Shares popped 21.7% after the retailer raised the lower end of its full-year earnings guidance and said it is expecting total sales growth of 11% in 2024. That’s higher than analysts expected. Burlington also said November was off to a strong start. Medtronic — The medical equipment stock jumped 3.8% after the company posted better-than-expected earnings. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.25 on revenues of $7.98 billion, versus the $1.18 on revenues of $7.92 billion expected from analysts polled by LSEG. Kohl’s — Shares dropped more than 9% after the retailer reported weaker-than-expected revenues for the third quarter. Same-store sales were down 5.5%, it reported, versus the StreetAccount estimate of 3.8%. Kohl’s lowered the low end of its full-year same-store sales outlook. American Eagle Outfitters — The apparel retailer sank 16% after its operating income guidance for the full year came in weaker than expected. C3.ai — Shares of the artificial intelligence software company added 3.4% in midday trading following an upgrade to outperform from Oppenheimer. Analyst Timothy Horan noted C3.ai remains “one of the few pure plays helping customers drive new revenue sources.” Baidu — U.S. shares of the Chinese technology giant jumped 1.5% after revenue came in slightly higher than analysts forecasted. Baidu reported 34.45 billion yuan for the quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of 34.33 billion yuan from analysts polled by LSEG. Lowe’s — Shares of the home improvement retailer dipped 2.7% after Lowe’s reported softer-than-expected revenue for the third quarter . The company generated $20.47 billion in revenue for the three months ended Nov. 3. Analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $20.89 billion. The company also lowered its full-year sales outlook, citing weaker demand from do-it-yourself customers. Symbotic — The stock surged 37% after Symbotic reported revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the fiscal fourth quarter that topped expectations. VMWare — Shares shed 4.7% after Broadcom announced it received all required regulatory approvals to acquire VMWare and plans to close the $69 billion acquisition on Wednesday. Shares of Broadcom were down less than 1%. Dick’s Sporting Goods — The athletic goods retailer saw its shares rise 4.3% after posting strong quarterly earnings and revenue for its fiscal third quarter that beat analysts’ expectations. The company also hiked its full-year outlook after slashing it in the prior quarter over theft concerns. Abercrombie & Fitch — The stock slid 2.7% after the clothing retailer reported a big earnings beat for its third quarter, but delivered fourth-quarter guidance that was in-line with consensus estimates. Abercrombie shares have already gained more than 200% year to date. Agilent Technologies — The life sciences stock gained 8.3%. Agilent Technologies on Monday reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that topped FactSet consensus estimates, though its fiscal first-quarter and full-year guidance fell short of expectations. — CNBC’s Brian Evans, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Tanaya Macheel and Sarah Min contributed reporting.
Global rice markets could come under further strain as the world’s leading rice producer China grapples with heavy rain and flood risks.
“Heavy rain in China’s grain-producing north-eastern region that will reduce yields is likely to put upward pressure on already high global rice prices,” Fitch Ratings said in a recent report.
The world’s second largest economy has been inundated by devastating floods in recent weeks. Typhoon Doksuri was one of the worst storms to hit northern China in years, with capital Beijing battered by the heaviest rainfall in 140 years.
Fitch pointed out that many key grain production areas in those three provinces were affected by heavy rains and remnants of Typhoon Doksuri, and they’re set to face “another deluge as Typhoon Khanun moves north.”
The resulting soaked grain fields will reduce crop yields for the year, the Fitch report stated, although the full extent of the damage is not yet clear.
“This will lift China’s domestic grain prices and likely drive higher imports in 2H23 to partially offset the potential yield loss,” the credit ratings firm said, adding the country may need to look to import more rice if its own harvests fall short, and that could drive global rice prices even higher.
India, which accounts for more than 40% of global rice trade, banned exports of non-basmati white rice on July 20, as the government looked to tackle soaring domestic food prices.
In addition to rice, the Fitch report also cited corn and soybean among major crops grown in Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang, which will be impacted by flood risks. China is expected to import more of both grains this year compared to the last.
Stocks are coming off a rough day. All three major indices took a dive Wednesday after debt ceiling negotiations yet again yielded no deal. We could be in for a jumbled Thursday, however, after both Fitch’s warning about the U.S. debt rating and Nvidia’s blowout earnings report (more on both below). Investors will also chew over a new slate of retail earnings, including Best Buy and Dollar Tree, as well as pending home sales data and weekly jobless claims. Follow live market updates.
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. May 24, 2023.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
The Treasury Department has warned the U.S. could run out of money to pay its bills as soon as June 1, which is exactly one week from Thursday. So, what’s the status of negotiations between the White House and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s team? Improving, but still not where they need to be. The House, in fact, will be allowed to go home for Memorial Day weekend, although they’re on call to come back for a vote. Meanwhile, the possibility of an unprecedented default on U.S. debt is ratcheting up the external pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Fitch put the U.S.’s triple-A status on rating watch negative, citing the tense debt talks.
Nvidia shares soared after the chip maker posted a big earnings beat and offered sales guidance way above Wall Street’s estimates. The stock was already up 109% this year going into the earnings report after the bell Wednesday. The company is riding an artificial intelligence-driven wave of demand for chips. Its data center business posted a 14% increase in quarterly revenue. As CNBC’s Kif Leswing points out, this robust result shows how important AI chips are becoming for cloud vendors and other companies running a lot of servers.
Customers ride an escalator at The Galleria shopping mall after it opened during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Houston Texas, May 1, 2020.
Adrees Latif | Reuters
It’s a tale of two mall retailers. American Eagle Outfitters‘ shares plunged 19% in off-hours trading after the company said Wednesday afternoon it lowered its outlook for revenue and operating income for the year, citing a slowdown in sales heading into the current quarter. American Eagle also had a tough act to follow. Before the bell Wednesday, rival Abercrombie & Fitch posted a surprise profit and raised its guidance for the year. That, in turn, sparked a monster rally in the stock. Shares surged 31%, accounting for nearly all of Abercrombie’s gains this year.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during the annual Feenstra Family Picnic at the Dean Family Classic Car Museum in Sioux Center, Iowa, May 13, 2023.
Rebecca S. Gratz | The Washington Post | Getty Images
In Twitter Spaces, no one can hear you stream. At least that was the case Wednesday night for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Twitter owner and Tesla CEO Elon Musk and conservative tech investor David Sacks. DeSantis was set to announce his (already established and widely known) candidacy for presidency at 6 p.m. ET, but numerous glitches and crashes forced the men to shut down the livestream after about 25 minutes. They blamed server issues because more than 500,000 people piled into the stream. They started a second one, which went much more smoothly from a tech perspective and drew about 300,000 listeners. DeSantis supporters spun the disastrous rollout as a positive, saying it was a sign that DeSantis was generating excitement. But, as CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger notes, an audience of that size would be considered a ratings disappointment on primetime cable news.
– CNBC’s Sarah Min, Christina Wilkie, Emma Kinery, Darla Mercado, Kif Leswing, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Melissa Repko and Kevin Breuninger contributed to this report.
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A Target department store in North Miami Beach, Florida, May 17, 2023.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
More grocery purchases, fewer ambitious do-it-yourself projects and last-minute splurges at the store.
This week, some of the biggest retailers in the country reported earnings and described how their customers are shopping. As Home Depot, Target and Walmart reported their quarterly sales and shared full-year outlooks, the companies offered up the latest clues about the health of the American consumer and previewed what could be ahead for the economy.
Some smaller retailers also offered warning signs for the current quarter and this year.
So far, at least five retailers — Target, Walmart, Tapestry, Bath & Body Works and Foot Locker — have spoken about sales trends across the country getting worse.
As the three-month period went on, shoppers spent less, especially on discretionary merchandise, Target CEO Brian Cornell said on a call with investors. Walmart noticed the same pattern.
Both big-box retailers reported a sharp sales drop after February.
Walmart’s Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey attributed the decline, in part, to the end of pandemic-related SNAP benefits and a decrease in tax refunds.
Cornell said headline-grabbing events could have shaken consumer confidence too. He pointed to the March banking crisis. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed that month, sparking fears of broader economic woes.
Bath & Body Works saw sales fall off in March.Yet, sales recovered in April as the retailer turned to a common playbook: promotions.It got a boost as customers spent money at sales events toward the end of the quarter, CFO Wendy Arlin said on a Thursday earnings call.
Foot Locker also said it may have to motivate shoppers with markdowns for the rest of the year. The company cut its full-year forecast Friday, as it reported earnings that missed expectations. CEO Mary Dillon said in a statement, “sales have since softened meaningfully given the tough macroeconomic backdrop.”
On a call with investors Friday, Dillon said the sneaker seller’s sales got hurt by lower tax refunds and high inflation as customers spent more on food and services. While she said sales rebounded in April, “they did not improve nearly to the extent we expected, and that weakness has continued into May.”
A few other retailers that reported earnings had specific factors working in their favor.
When Tapestry, the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade, reported earnings last week, the company said sales softened as the quarter progressed and into April as consumers became more cautious.
But it has a factor going for it that some other retailers don’t: A growing business in China and other international markets to offset some of those softer sales.
Home Depot bucked the slowing sales trend, but that may have to do more with what it offers than consumer health.
Spring is peak season for home improvement. The retailer’s comparable sales in the U.S. declined 4.6% in the quarter versus the year-ago period. In February, its comparable sales were down 2.8%. March was its weakest month of the quarter, as comparable sales fell nearly 8% year over year in the U.S.
Home Depot’s trends were still negative in April but saw a slight improvement as comparable sales slid 3.7%, according to CFO Richard McPhail. Customers may have been buying more spring items such as potted plants.
Inflation is easing, according to a Labor Department report this month. Yet, that’s cold comfort for shoppers who are still paying a lot more at the grocery store than they were a few years ago.
Stubbornly high prices, especially for food, are a storm cloud that hangs over many families who shop at Walmart, and looms over the retail industry as a whole, the big-box giant’s CEO Doug McMillon said. On a call with investors Thursday, he called the persistent inflation “one of the key factors creating uncertainty for us in the back half of the year.”
“We all need those prices to come down,” he said on the call. “The persistently high rates of inflation in these categories, lasting for such a long period of time, are weighing on some of the families we serve.”
For example, he said general merchandise costs in the U.S. are lower than a year ago, but still higher than two years ago. In dry grocery and consumables categories, Walmart is seeing high single-digit to low double-digit cost inflation on items such as toilet paper or paper towels. For food, inflation has climbed more than 20% on a two-year basis, according to Walmart’s Rainey.
A shopper browses the eggs section at a Walmart store in Santa Clarita, California.
Mario Anzuoni | Reuters
Walmart is feeling the inflation crunch even though it is better positioned to manage higher costs than other retailers. As the nation’s largest retailer and biggest grocer, Walmart can use its scale to manufacture private-label merchandise or negotiatewith vendors over price.
In plenty of other categories, however, inflation is still driving a higher average ticket for customers, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on an earnings call Tuesday.
Target, Home Depot and Walmart all saw a noticeable pattern: fewer pricey and fun items in shopping carts.
At Home Depot, customers boughtfewer big-ticket items such as appliances and grills in the fiscal first quarter.
Home projects got more modest, too, Decker said on an investor call. Contractors and other home professionals noticed a change from large-scale remodels to smaller renovations and repairs.
Decker said consumers’ increased focus on value could be contributing to that shift, along with an uptick in spending on traveling, dining out and other services. He added some homeowners already tackled big projects and bought some high-priced home items during the early years of the Covid-19 pandemic, leaving less for them to do or to buy now.
The trend extended beyond home improvement.
Customers at Walmart have become more selective when shopping for electronics, TVs, home items and apparel, Rainey told CNBC. The items have become a tougher sell and when customers do buy them, they often wait for a sale, he said.
At Target, sales declined in some discretionary categories as much as low double-digits as customers bought less clothing and home decor, Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington said on an investor call. Groceries and essentials drove a bigger portion of the retailer’s quarterly sales.
One exception? Beauty. Hennington said Target’s beauty category was its strongest in the fiscal first quarter. Sales grew in the mid-teens year over year, showing shoppers are still willing to replenish the cosmetic case and get a new tube of lipstick.
Walmart is eager for warmer weather too. Sam’s Club has noticed slower sales of patio sets, perhaps because of the later-to-hit spring weather, its CEO Kath McLay said on an investor call. Walmart has seen a sharp drop in air conditioner sales at its big-box stores, its CFO Rainey said.
“We’re ready to get some spring or summer weather,” he said on a call with CNBC.
Target noted it’s looking forward to another upcoming season: back-to-school.
The discounter expects to get a sales boost in the back half of the year due to the big shopping season, Hennington said on an investor call. She said the return to classrooms and college dorms triggers sales across almost every department of its store, from lunch ingredients in the grocery aisles to new outfits in the kids’ clothing department.
Retailers may be saying so long to the days of stockpiling and early shopping.
Company leaders said there are signs shoppers are reverting to some of their old ways.
At Walmart-owned Sam’s Club, McLay said shoppers are not just opting for lower price points. They’re also shopping later for seasonal items. For example, she said, customers used to buy patio furniture just as soon as it was set at the stores.
“Now we’re seeing people wait a little bit later into the season,” she said.
It saw a similar pattern with Mother’s Day sales, she said.
McLay said that may indicate people have returned to shopping habits of 2018 and 2019. The trend could be fueled by shoppers’ reluctance to open their wallets or because they’re not as worried about out-of-stock items — or a combination.
At Target, shoppers have also embraced more procrastinator tendencies, especially for discretionary items such as apparel.
“Guests are shifting to shop more just in time in these categories, as they wait until the last moments before key events to invest in new decor or wardrobe refreshes,” Hennington said on an earnings call.