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  • Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

    Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

    U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday as protests in China raised the risks to global growth and Federal Reserve policy makers said more interest-rate increases are needed to control inflation.

    How stocks are trading
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 523 points, or 1.5%, at 33,824, near its session low.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.65%
      retreated 68 points, or 1.7%, to 3,958.

    • The Nasdaq Composite shed 195 points, or 1.7%, dropping to 11,031.

    U.S. stocks had notched weekly gains last week for the second time in three weeks. The Dow rose 1.8%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

    What’s driving markets

    Wall Street started the week in a downbeat mood as traders absorbed the impact of unrest in China and assessed interest-rate commentary by a pair of Fed officials on Monday.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MarketWatch that he favors more aggressive interest-rate hikes to contain inflation, and that the central bank will likely need to keep interest rates above 5% into 2024. Meanwhile, his colleague John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that U.S. unemployment could climb to as high as 5% next year, versus October’s rate of 3.7%, in response to the central bank’s series of rate hikes.

    Overseas, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -1.57%
    closed down by 1.6% and most equity indexes across Asia also fell, with the exception of India’s, on concerns about unrest in China. Those concerns also spilled over into commodity markets, where West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery
    CLF23,
    +0.93%
     briefly fell to less than $74 per barrel before recovering and settling at $77.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, copper prices HG00 were off 0.9% at $3.594 per pound.

    “What people are worried about is the potential for protests in China to spread and whether the population is reaching its breaking point,” said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. “At the same time, Fed speak is ramping up and the message is there’s more hikes to come. So investors aren’t finding relief.”

    Signs that economic activity in China will continue to be disrupted by the protests or by additional anti-COVID measures will likely continue to weigh on commodity prices, analysts said. Meanwhile, concerns about global growth helped to support government bond markets earlier on Monday, when the yield on the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.693%
    briefly traded at its lowest level since October.

    The unprecedented waves of protest in China “have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, as worries mount about repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.”

    But the news wasn’t all bad: Reports of strong online Black Friday sales helped boost shares of Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.29%    ,
    which were up 0.6%.

    Investors can expect more information about the health of the U.S. economy in what’s shaping up to be a busy week for U.S. economic data: Later this week, investors will receive the ADP employment report followed by the November jobs report. Revised data on third-quarter gross domestic product is due on Wednesday, along with the Fed’s Beige Book report. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to speak publicly on Wednesday, and a closely watched gauge of inflation is due on Thursday.

    Read: ‘We see major stock markets plunging 25% from levels somewhat above today’s,’ Deutsche Bank says

    Single-stock movers

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.

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  • Bear markets come in three stages; and we’ve only just started the second, says veteran analyst.

    Bear markets come in three stages; and we’ve only just started the second, says veteran analyst.

    Stocks will start the Black Friday half-session near 10-week highs, having rebounded partly on hopes the Federal Reserve will be slowing the pace of interest rate rises as it waits to see how much previous tightening has impacted the economy.

    Investors are thus looking ahead to when the Fed eventually pivots and borrowing costs can start coming down again. For now, they are displaying few concerns about how much damage any economic slowdown may do to corporate earnings.

    It’s all too rosy, reckons Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group. In an interview with Magnifi+, an AI investing and trading platform, the veteran analyst warns that stocks will grind lower next year, and we have not seen the bottom of a bear market still in its middle phase.

    “Bear markets usually come in three stages. The first one is we take a lot of the frothy excesses and euphoria out of the market in terms of the sexy names that we saw in 2021 and we take a PE ratio down. We’ve done that, we went from 22 times earnings, call it 16 to 17,” says Boockvar.

    In the second phase, he adds, investors start calculating the economic and company earnings consequences of the ongoing rises in interest rates…”and then the third phase is everyone throws in the towel. No one wants to own a stock again, and that’s your bottom and that’s when you need to be buying stocks hand over fist.”

    “I feel like we’re really just only beginning to start that second phase,” he said.

    Still, there will be opportunities. It all depends on your time scale, according to Boockvar.

    “If you have a big purchase that you have to make within the next year or two, whether it’s a kid going college or it’s a wedding, a bar mitzvah or some other expense like a home that you have put aside money for, it should not be in the stock market. It should be in the bank it should be in short-term T-bills. It should be in cash equivalents because the next couple of years are going to be challenging for those with shorter-term time horizons,” he said.

    So, what assets is he interested in? Bonds are attractive, but it’s important to stick to quality.

    “You have investment-grade bonds that are yielding 6% and you can do that without taking much duration risk by buying shorter-term durations….And you can buy a short-term, two-year treasury and get a yield of four and a half percent and get some attractive Munis too. So fixed-income land, with shorter durations, I believe, is more attractive. Longer-term trade durations, I’m still more suspect on,” says Boockvar.

    And in equities? “Value stocks are much more attractive than growth, the tech stocks. I think commodity stocks are much more attractive than they’ve been over the past five years. Certainly energy, precious metals, even industrial metals like copper stocks.”

    If the dollar has peaked and pulls back as the Fed gets closer to the end of its hiking cycle, then Boockvar likes the look of foreign markets, particularly in Asia, and gold and silver once the central bank begins cutting rates.

    Finally, the one thing he’s certainly not keen on are techs former darlings. “Just buying Google
    GOOGL,
    +1.45%
    and Amazon
    AMZN,
    +1.00%
    and Apple
    AAPL,
    +0.59%    ,
    while they’re all great companies, that ship has sailed and the baton in terms of market leadership is going to be passed to other parts of the market,” says the analyst.

    Markets

    Stocks were in line to start the last trading of the week on the front foot, with S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    -0.14%
    up 0.2% to 4039 and 10-year Treasury yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.732%
    were little changed at 3.709%. U.S. crude futures fell 0.7% to $79.50 a barrel.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    It’s a half-day of trading for Wall Street as many traders also extend their Thanksgiving break. Expect very thin volumes.

    Still, analysts and investors are on the lookout for guidance on how the Black Friday sales are going. How is the U.S. consumer holding up in the face of high inflation and sharp increases in borrowing costs? Shares in Amazon
    AMZN,
    +1.00%
    and Walmart
    WMT,
    +0.48%
    were relatively steady.

    Shares in Tesla
    TSLA,
    +7.82%
    are up about 2% in premarket action despite news the car company is recalling around 80,000 cars in China.

    Activision Blizzard shares
    ATVI,
    +0.94%
    are off more than 3% after a report late on Wednesday that the Federal Trade Commission might block Microsoft’s purchase of the videogame maker.

    Fed’s Bullard set to talk inflation, interest rates in MarketWatch Q&A Monday. Sign up here to watch the program and pose a question. 

    China’s central bank eased monetary policy as the country struggles with further COVID-19 outbreaks.

    Best of the web

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    In the court of Mar-a-Lago, ‘King’ Trump still reigns supreme.

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    The chart

    Here’s an interesting observation on stock volatility from Benedek Vörös, director of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    “It has been a turbulent year, but a degree of relative calm has returned to U.S. equity markets in the past few weeks, and participants in the options market look even more relaxed than their cash counterparts,” Vörös writes in his latest bulletin.  “VIX, having averaged 3 points above the 21-day realized S&P 500 volatility over the past year, has slipped 6 percentage points below it as of yesterday’s close. Historically, that has had some predictive power for lower volatility to come.”


    Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

    Top tickers

    Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

    Ticker

    		 Security name
    TSLA,
    +7.82%         		Tesla
    GME,
    +1.52%         		GameStop
    AMC,
    +4.37%         		AMC Entertainment
    NIO,
    +5.49%         		NIO
    COSM,
    -2.29%         		Cosmos Holdings
    AAPL,
    +0.59%         		Apple
    APE,
    -3.97%         		AMC Entertainment preferred
    BBBY,
    +4.88%         		Bed Bath & Beyond
    AMZN,
    +1.00%         		Amazon.com
    MULN,
    -10.01%         		Mullen Automotive
    Random reads

    Japan fans show the world how it’s done.

    Coin study suggests ‘fake emperor’ was real.

    Someone’s been going on a gold-buying bender.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton

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  • Fed eyes slower rate hikes as recession threat grows

    Fed eyes slower rate hikes as recession threat grows

    Senior officials at the Federal Reserve expect smaller increases in interest rates will “soon be appropriate” as the threat of recession grows.

    Although the Fed still expects rates to rise higher than previously forecast, senior officials are unsure just how much further they will go. Slower rate hikes, they say, would give them more time to evaluate the “lagging” effects on the economy amid the rising threat of a recession.

    “Short of some wild inflation report before the next meeting, 50 basis points sounds very reasonable in December. But the Fed is clearly not finished yet.”

    The Fed’s economic staff for the first time said a recession was possible in the next year, according to a detailed summary of the bank’s last strategy session in early November.

    The bank’s previous minutes have not mentioned the possibility of a recession.

    The main U.S. stock gauges
    SPX,
    +0.59%

    DJIA,
    +0.50%
    extended gains after the release of the Fed minutes.

    The Fed has quickly raised a key U.S. interest rate to a top range of 4% from near zero last spring in an effort to tame high inflation. Rising rates tend to reduce inflation by slowing the economy and depressing demand for goods and labor.

    Yet some economists and senior officials at the Fed also worry the central bank could spark a recession or a period of prolonged economic weakness if rates go too high.

    Some members said there was an increasing risk that the Fed’s actions “would exceed what was required” to bring inflation down to acceptable levels.

    In recent speeches, a few have suggested a “pause” in rate hikes might be warranted by early next year to see how they affect the economy. A rapid easing of inflationary pressures could strengthen their case.

    The rate of inflation exploded earlier this year to a 40-year high of 9.1% from almost zero during the early stages of the pandemic. It has since slowed to 7.7%.

    Earlier this month, the bank lifted the so-called fed funds rate by three-quarters of a point to a range of 3.75% to 4% — the third big rate increase in a row. Most U..S. loans such as mortgages and car loans are tied to the fed fund rate.

    In December, the Fed is likely to raise rates again, but markets are betting on a smaller 1/2-point increase. The minutes also suggest a smaller rate hike is likely.

    “Short of some wild inflation report before the next meeting, 50 bps sounds very reasonable in December,” senior economist Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets said. “But the Fed is clearly not finished yet.”

    Senior Fed officials have repeatedly said they plan is to further raise rates in 2023 and then keep them high for an unspecified period of time to make sure inflation declines.

    Officials are less unified on just how high rates will go. Some want to stop at around 5% while others suggest they might need to go higher.

    Wall Street expects the Fed to raise its benchmark rate to 5% by next year.

    The Fed’s aggressive posture stems from the biggest surge in prices since the early 1980s.

    The Fed is aiming to bring down inflation to pre-pandemic levels of 2% or so, but they acknowledge it could take a while.

    Several Fed members also expressed worries that non-traditional financial institutions could amplify the problems for the U.S. economy if higher rates exposed them to greater instability.

    The troubles at the crypto-currency firm FTX were emerging just as the Fed meeting took place.

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  • Kim’s sister warns US of ‘a more fatal security crisis’

    Kim’s sister warns US of ‘a more fatal security crisis’

    SEOUL, South Korea — The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States on Tuesday that it would face “a more fatal security crisis” as Washington pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.

    Kim Yo Jong’s warning came hours after U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council that the U.S. will circulate a proposed presidential statement condemning North Korea’s banned missile launches and other destabilizing activities. After the meeting, Thomas-Greenfield also read a statement by 14 countries which supported action to limit North Korea’s advancement of its weapons programs.

    Kim Yo Jong, who is widely considered North Korea’s second most powerful person after her brother, lambasted the United States for issuing what she called “a disgusting joint statement together with such rabbles as Britain, France, Australia, Japan and South Korea.”

    Kim compared the United States to “a barking dog seized with fear.” She said North Korea would consider the U.S.-led statement “a wanton violation of our sovereignty and a grave political provocation.”

    “The U.S. should be mindful that no matter how desperately it may seek to disarm (North Korea), it can never deprive (North Korea) of its right to self-defense and that the more hell-bent it gets on the anti-(North Korea) acts, it will face a more fatal security crisis,” she said in a statement carried by state media.

    Monday’s U.N. Security Council meeting was convened in response to North Korea’s ICBM launch on Friday, which was part of a provocative run of missile tests this year that experts say is designed to modernize its nuclear arsenal and increase its leverage in future diplomacy. Friday’s test involved its most powerful Hwasong-17 missile, and some experts say the successful steep-angle launch proved its potential to strike anywhere in the U.S. mainland if it’s fired at a standard trajectory.

    During the Security Council meeting, the United States and its allies strongly criticized the ICBM launch and called for action to limit North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. But Russia and China, both veto-wielding members of the Security Council, opposed any new pressure and sanctions on North Korea. In May, the two countries vetoed a U.S.-led attempt to toughen sanctions on North Korea over its earlier ballistic missile tests, which are prohibited by U.N. Security Council resolutions.

    North Korea has said its testing activities are legitimate exercises of its right to self defense in response to regular military drills between the United States and South Korea which it views as an invasion rehearsal. Washington and Seoul officials say the exercises are defensive in nature.

    Kim Yo Jong said the fact that North Korea’s ICBM launch was discussed at the Security Council is “evidently the application of double-standards” by the U.N. body because it “turned blind eyes” to the U.S.-South Korean military drills and arms buildups targeting North Korea. She said North Korea will take “the toughest counteraction to the last” to protect its national security.

    On Monday, North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, called U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “a puppet of the United States.”

    There are concerns that North Korea may soon conduct its first nuclear test in five years.

    The status of North Korea’s nuclear capability remains shrouded in secrecy. Some analysts say North Korea already has nuclear-armed missiles that can strike both the U.S. mainland and its allies South Korea and Japan, but others say the North is still years away from possessing such missiles.

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  • circle

    circle

    An ant mill is an observed phenomenon in which a group of army ants are separated from the main foraging party, lose the pheromone track and begin to follow one another, forming a continuously rotating circle, commonly known as a “death spiral” because the ants might eventually die of exhaustion.

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  • Bill protecting same-sex and interracial marriages clears key Senate hurdle

    Bill protecting same-sex and interracial marriages clears key Senate hurdle

    WASHINGTON — Legislation to protect same-sex and interracial marriages crossed a major Senate hurdle Wednesday, putting Congress on track to take the historic step of ensuring that such unions are enshrined in federal law.

    Twelve Republicans voted with all Democrats to move forward on the legislation, meaning a final vote could come as soon as this week, or later this month. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the bill ensuring the unions are legally recognized under the law is chance for the Senate to “live up to its highest ideals” and protect marriage equality for all people.

    “It will make our country a better, fairer place to live,” Schumer said, noting that his own daughter and her wife are expecting a baby next year.

    Senate Democrats are quickly moving to pass the bill while the party still controls the House. Republicans are on the verge of winning the House majority and would be unlikely to take up the issue next year.

    The bill has gained steady momentum since the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and the federal right to an abortion. An opinion at that time from Justice Clarence Thomas suggested that an earlier high court decision protecting same-sex marriage could also come under threat.

    The legislation would repeal the Clinton-era Defense of Marriage Act and require states to recognize all marriages that were legal where they were performed. The new Respect for Marriage Act would also protect interracial marriages by requiring states to recognize legal marriages regardless of “sex, race, ethnicity, or national origin.”

    Congress has been moving to protect same-sex marriage as support from the general public — and from Republicans in particular — has sharply grown in recent years, as the Supreme Court’s 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalized gay marriage nationwide. Recent polling has found more than two-thirds of the public supports same-sex unions.

    Still, many Republicans in Congress have been reluctant to support the legislation. Democrats delayed consideration until after the midterm elections, hoping that would relieve political pressure on some GOP senators who might be wavering.

    A proposed amendment to the bill, negotiated by supporters to bring more Republicans on board, would clarify that it does not affect rights of private individuals or businesses that are already enshrined in law. Another tweak would make clear that a marriage is between two people, an effort to ward off some far-right criticism that the legislation could endorse polygamy.

    Three Republicans said early on that they would support the legislation and have lobbied their GOP colleagues to support it: Maine Sen. Susan Collins, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis and Ohio Sen. Rob Portman.

    “Current federal law doesn’t reflect the will or beliefs of the American people in this regard,” Portman said ahead of the vote. “It’s time for the Senate to settle the issue.”

    The growing GOP support for the issue is a sharp contrast from even a decade ago, when many Republicans vocally opposed same-sex marriages. The legislation passed the House in a July vote with the support of 47 Republicans — a larger-than-expected number that gave the measure a boost in the Senate.

    On Tuesday, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints became the most recent conservative-leaning group to back the legislation. In a statement, the Utah-based faith said church doctrine would continue to consider same-sex relationships to be against God’s commandments, but it would support rights for same-sex couples as long as they didn’t infringe upon religious groups’ right to believe as they choose.

    Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat who is the first openly gay senator and has been working on gay rights issues for almost four decades, said the newfound openness from many Republicans on the subject reminds her “of the arc of the LBGTQ movement to begin with, in the early days when people weren’t out and people knew gay people by myths and stereotypes.”

    Baldwin said that as more individuals and families have become visible, hearts and minds have changed.

    “And slowly laws have followed,” she said. “It is history.”

    Schumer said the issue is personal to him, as well.

    “Passing the Respect for Marriage Act is as personal as it gets for many senators and their staffs, myself included,” Schumer said. “My daughter and her wife are actually expecting a little baby in February. So it matters a lot to so many of us to get this done.”

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  • Opinion: No, an indictment wouldn’t end Trump’s run for the presidency – he could even campaign or serve from a jail cell

    Opinion: No, an indictment wouldn’t end Trump’s run for the presidency – he could even campaign or serve from a jail cell

    Donald Trump announced his 2024 run for the presidency on Nov. 15. In his address he railed against what he perceived as the “persecution” of himself and his family, but made scant mention of his legal woes.

    There is also the not-so-small matter of a Justice Department investigation into the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol.

    The announcement has led some to speculate that Trump may be hoping that becoming a presidential candidate will in some way shield him from prosecution.

    Donald Trump has announced his bid to run in the 2024 presidential race. WSJ’s Alex Leary breaks down the challenges the former president will face on the campaign trail, including new political rivals and a waning influence among voters. Photo Composite: Adele Morgan

    So, does an indictment—or even a felony conviction—prevent a presidential candidate from running or serving in office?

    The short answer is no. Here’s why:

    The U.S. Constitution specifies in clear language the qualifications required to hold the office of the presidency. In Section 1, Clause 5 of Article II, it states: “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

    These three requirements—natural-born citizenship, age, and residency—are the only specifications set forth in the United States’ founding document.

    Congress has ‘no power to alter’

    Furthermore, the Supreme Court has made clear that constitutionally prescribed qualifications to hold federal office may not be altered or supplemented by either the U.S. Congress or any of the states.

    Justices clarified the court’s position in their 1969 Powell v. McCormack ruling. The case followed the adoption of a resolution by the House of Representatives barring pastor and New York politician Adam Clayton Powell Jr. from taking his seat in the 90th Congress.

    The resolution was not based on Powell’s failure to meet the age, citizenship and residency requirements for House members set forth in the Constitution. Rather, the House found that Powell had diverted Congressional funds and made false reports about certain currency transactions.

    When Powell sued to take his seat, the Supreme Court invalidated the House’s resolution on grounds that it added to the constitutionally specified qualifications for Powell to hold office. In the majority opinion, the court held that: “Congress has no power to alter the qualifications in the text of the Constitution.”

    For the same reason, no limitation could now be placed on Trump’s candidacy. Nor could he be barred from taking office if he were to be indicted or even convicted.

    But in case of insurrection…

    The Constitution includes no qualification regarding those conditions—with one significant exception. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment disqualifies any person from holding federal office “who, having previously taken an oath…to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

    The reason why this matters is the Justice Department is currently investigating Trump for his activities related to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

    Under the provisions of the 14th Amendment, Congress is authorized to pass laws to enforce its provisions. And in February 2021, one Democratic congressman proposed House Bill 1405, providing for a “cause of action to remove and bar from holding office certain individuals who engage in insurrection or rebellion against the United States.”

    Even in the event of Trump being found to have participated “in insurrection or rebellion,” he might conceivably argue that he is exempt from Section 3 for a number of reasons. The 14th Amendment does not specifically refer to the presidency and it is not “self-executing”—that is, it needs subsequent legislation to enforce it. Trump could also point to the fact that Congress enacted an Amnesty Act in 1872 that lifted the ban on office holding for officials from many former Confederate states.

    He might also argue that his activities on and before Jan. 6 did not constitute an “insurrection” as it is understood by the wording of the amendment. There are few judicial precedents that interpret Section 3, and as such its application in modern times remains unclear. So even if House Bill 1405 were adopted, it is not clear whether it would be enough to disqualify Trump from serving as president again.

    Running from behind bars

    Even in the case of conviction and incarceration, a presidential candidate would not be prevented from continuing their campaign—even if, as a felon, they might not be able to vote for themselves.

    History is dotted with instances of candidates for federal office running—and even being elected—while in prison. As early as 1798—some 79 years before the 14th Amendment — House member Matthew Lyon was elected to Congress from a prison cell, where he was serving a sentence for sedition for speaking out against the Federalist Adams administration.

    Eugene Debs, founder of the Socialist Party of America, ran for president in 1920 while serving a prison sentence for sedition. Although he lost the election, he nevertheless won 913,693 votes. Debs promised to pardon himself if he were elected.

    And controversial politician and conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche also ran for president from a jail cell in 1992.

    A prison cell as the Oval Office?

    Several provisions within the Constitution offer alternatives that could be used to disqualify a president under indictment or in prison.

    The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to suspend the president from office if they conclude that the president is incapable of fulfilling his duties.

    The amendment states that the removal process may be invoked “if the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

    It was proposed and ratified to address what would happen should a president be incapacitated due to health issues. But the language is broad and some legal scholars believe it could be invoked if someone is deemed incapacitated or incapable for other reasons, such as incarceration.

    To be sure, a president behind bars could challenge the conclusion that he or she was incapable from discharging the duties simply because they were in prison. But ultimately the amendment leaves any such dispute to Congress to decide, and it may suspend the president from office by a two-thirds vote.

    Indeed, it is not clear that a president could not effectively execute the duties of office from prison, since the Constitution imposes no requirements that the executive appear in any specific location. The jail cell could, theoretically, serve as the new Oval Office.

    Finally, if Trump were convicted and yet prevail in his quest for the presidency in 2024, Congress might choose to impeach him and remove him from office. Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution allows impeachment for “treason, bribery, and high crimes and misdemeanors.”

    Whether that language would apply to Trump for indictments or convictions arising from his previous term or business dealings outside of office would be a question for Congress to decide. The precise meaning of “high crimes and misdemeanors” is unclear, and the courts are unlikely to second-guess the House in bringing an impeachment proceeding.

    For sure, impeachment would remain an option—but it might be an unlikely one if Republicans maintained their majority in the House in 2024 and 2026.

    Stefanie Lindquist is Foundation Professor of Law and Political Science at Arizona State University. She previously taught at Vanderbilt University, the University of Georgia and the University of Texas.

    This commentary was originally published by The Conversation—No, an indictment wouldn’t end Trump’s run for the presidency—he could even campaign or serve from a jail cell

    More on Trump’s legal problems

    Trump Organization executive says he helped colleagues dodge taxes

    Judge says he’ll appoint monitor to oversee Donald Trump’s company

    Justice Department weighs appointing special counsel if Trump runs in 2024, report says

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  • NASA’s mightiest rocket lifts off 50 years after Apollo

    NASA’s mightiest rocket lifts off 50 years after Apollo

    CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — NASA’s new moon rocket blasted off on its debut flight with three test dummies aboard Wednesday, bringing the U.S. a big step closer to putting astronauts back on the lunar surface for the first time since the end of the Apollo program 50 years ago.

    If all goes well during the three-week, make-or-break shakedown flight, the crew capsule will be propelled into a wide orbit around the moon and then return to Earth with a Pacific splashdown in December.

    After years of delays and billions in cost overruns, the Space Launch System rocket thundered skyward, rising from Kennedy Space Center on 8.8 million pounds (4 million kilograms) of thrust and hitting 100 mph (160 kph) within seconds. The Orion capsule was perched on top and, less than two hours into the flight, busted out of Earth’s orbit toward the moon.

    “It’s a great day,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

    The moonshot follows nearly three months of vexing fuel leaks that kept the rocket bouncing between its hangar and the pad. Forced back indoors by Hurricane Ian at the end of September, the rocket stood its ground outside as Nicole swept through last week with gusts of more than 80 mph (130 kph). Although the wind caused some damage, managers gave the green light for the launch.

    An estimated 15,000 people jammed the launch site, with thousands more lining the beaches and roads outside the gates, to witness NASA’s long-awaited sequel to Project Apollo, when 12 astronauts walked on the moon from 1969 and 1972. Crowds also gathered outside NASA centers in Houston and Huntsville, Alabama, to watch the spectacle on giant screens.

    Cheers accompanied the rocket as it rode a huge trail of flames toward space, with a half-moon glowing brightly and buildings shaking as though hit by a major quake.

    “For the Artemis generation, this is for you,” launch director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson called out, referring to all those born after Apollo.

    The liftoff marked the start of NASA’s Artemis lunar-exploration program, named after Apollo’s mythological twin sister. The space agency is aiming to send four astronauts around the moon on the next flight, in 2024, and land humans there as early as 2025.

    “You have earned your place in history,” Blackwell-Thompson told her team following liftoff.

    The 322-foot (98-meter) SLS is the most powerful rocket ever built by NASA, with more thrust than either the space shuttle or the mighty Saturn V that carried men to the moon. A series of hydrogen fuel leaks plagued the summertime launch attempts as well as countdown tests. A fresh leak erupted at a new location during Tuesday night’s fueling, but an emergency team managed to tighten the faulty valve on the pad. Then a U.S. Space Force radar station went down, resulting in another scramble, this time to replace an ethernet switch.

    “The rocket, it’s alive. It’s creaking. It’s making venting noises. It’s pretty scary. … My heart was pumping. My nerves were going,” said Trent Annis, one of the three men who entered the blast danger zone to fix Tuesday night’s leak.

    Orion should reach the moon by Monday, more than 230,000 miles (370,000 kilometers) from Earth. After coming within 80 miles (130 kilometers) of the moon, the capsule will enter a far-flung orbit stretching about 40,000 miles (64,000 kilometers) beyond.

    The $4.1 billion test flight is set to last 25 days, roughly the same as when crews will be aboard. The space agency intends to push the spacecraft to its limits and uncover any problems before astronauts strap in. The mannequins — NASA calls them moonequins — are fitted with sensors to measure such things as vibration, acceleration and cosmic radiation.

    The rocket was supposed to have made its dry run by 2017. Government watchdogs estimate NASA will have spent $93 billion on the project by 2025.

    Ultimately, NASA hopes to establish a base on the moon and send astronauts to Mars by the late 2030s or early 2040s.

    But many hurdles still need to be cleared. The Orion capsule will take astronauts only to lunar orbit, not the surface.

    NASA has hired Elon Musk’s SpaceX to develop Starship, the 21st-century answer to Apollo’s lunar lander. Starship will carry astronauts back and forth between Orion and the lunar surface, at least on the first trip in 2025. The plan is to station Starship and eventually other companies’ landers in orbit around the moon, ready for use whenever new Orion crews pull up.

    Reprising an argument that was made during the 1960s, Duke University historian Alex Roland questions the value of human spaceflight, saying robots and remote-controlled spacecraft could get the job done more cheaply, efficiently and safely.

    “In all these years, no evidence has emerged to justify the investment we have made in human spaceflight — save the prestige involved in this conspicuous consumption,” he said.

    NASA is waiting until this test flight is over before introducing the astronauts who will be on the next one and those who will follow in the bootsteps of Apollo 11′s Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin.

    Most of NASA’s corps of 42 active astronauts and 10 trainees were not even born yet when Apollo 17 moonwalkers Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt closed out the era, 50 years ago next month.

    “We are jumping out of our spacesuits with excitement,” astronaut Christina Koch said Tuesday.

    After a nearly yearlong space station mission and all-female spacewalk, Koch, 43, is on NASA’s short list for a lunar flight. So is astronaut Kayla Barron, 35, who finally got to witness her first rocket launch, not counting her own a year ago.

    “It took my breath away, and I was tearing up,” Barron said. “What an amazing accomplishment for this team.”

    ———

    The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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  • Dow ekes out gain, stocks end higher on signs of easing inflation, but Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifies

    Dow ekes out gain, stocks end higher on signs of easing inflation, but Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifies

    U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, but off the session’s best levels, after more data suggested inflation may be slowing and mega-retailer Walmart offered a rosier annual forecast.

    The Dow turned negative earlier in the session after the Associated Press reported that Russian missiles crossed into Poland and killed two people, ratcheting up geopolitical tension given Poland is a NATO country.

    How stocks traded
    • S&P 500 index
      SPX,
      +0.87%
      rose 34.48 points, or 0.9%, to close at 3,991.73.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.17%
      climbed 56.22 points, or 0.2%, ending at 33,592.92, after touching a nearly three-month high of 33,987.06 earlier.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +1.45%
      climbed 162.19 points, or 1.5%, closing at 11,358.41.

    On Monday, U.S. stocks finished near session lows after early gains evaporated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 211 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 declined 36 points, or 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 226 points, or 2%.

    What drove markets

    U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, after another batch of inflation data showed that whole prices rises were slowing in October for the second straight month.

    The Dow’s brief negative turn came after reports that Russian military bombarded Ukraine Tuesday. In the attack, missiles reportedly crossed into Poland, a member of NATO, the Associated Press said, citing a senior U.S. intelligence official.

    “Geopolitical concerns obviously are never positive for the market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

    On Tuesday, oil futures settled higher. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose to $1.05, or 1.2%, reaching $86.92 a barrel.

    While markets had started to price in the toll of Russian’s nearly nine-month invasion of Ukraine, it had not priced in an potential escalation of the war, said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management.

    “Talk about geopolitical angst returning,” Engelke said, later adding, “If there were really missiles shot to Poland and that was really not an accident, wow, that is really  increasing the scope of the war.”

    A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson said the agency was aware of the news reports out of Poland, but that it cannot confirm the reports or any details at this time.

    While international worries clouded the session, there was also encouraging domestic news.

    The U.S. producer-price index climbed 8% over the 12 months through October, the Labor Department said Tuesday, easing from September’s revised 8.4% increase. Last week, stocks surged after the October consumer-price index rose more slowly than expected.

    See: Wholesale prices rise slowly again and point to softening U.S. inflation

    Tuesday’s PPI report helped support the notion that inflation has peaked, at least for now.

    “Today, it’s really about the PPI and the market reaction to it,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers
    IBKR,
    +3.45%    ,
    said in a Tuesday morning interview before the reports of missiles crossing into Poland.

    Markets ripped higher last Thursday after October’s consumer-price index showed signs of easing. The same dynamic was playing out Tuesday, but the response now has been “a bit more muted” because it’s an iteration on inflation data that investors already had been starting to see, Sosnick said.

    So, is the economy really at peak inflation? It’s too early to say for sure, according to Sosnick. Still, the PPI numbers, paired with last week’s CPI reading “does add evidence to that narrative,” he added.

    Walmart’s third quarter earnings also were buoying markets, Sosnick said. The massive retailer’s beat on earnings offers a glimpse at the minds and wallets of many American consumers. For anyone who worries about consumers “getting highly defensive” and not spending, Walmart’s numbers are “counter evidence.”

    In other news, the first face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping helped support stocks listed in China and Hong Kong, as some of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies were seen to be easing.

    The upbeat tone from Asia, which included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
    TSM,
    +10.52%
    jumping 7.7% on news Warren Buffett had bought a $5 billion stake, underpinned European bourses, which closed higher for a fourth session in a row.

    Read also: Warren Buffett’s chip-stock purchase is a classic example of why you want to be ‘greedy only when others are fearful’

    Analysts increasingly expect stocks to enjoy a positive end to the year. “The near-term picture still looks positive for U.S. benchmark indices and while momentum has reached intra-day overbought levels, this doesn’t imply a selloff has to happen right away,” said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.

    Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said Tuesday that he favored a 50 basis-point hike to the Fed’s benchmark rate in December. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said more rate hikes will be needed, even through there have been “glimmers of hope” on inflation.

    Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is likely to slow in coming months, and more workers will lose their jobs, in Senate testimony. The Fed is working with regulators to assess risks tied to cryptocurrency markets, following the collapse of FTX and its associated companies.

    In other U.S. economic data, the New York Empire State manufacturing index for November showed a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state rose 13.6 points to 4.5 this month.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.774%
    was down 6.7 basis points at 3.798%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

    Companies in focus
    • Walmart
      WMT,
      +6.54%
      shares jumped after the giant retailer swung to a net third-quarter loss, due to $3.3 billion in charges related to opioid legal settlements, but reported adjusted profit, revenue and same-store sales that were well above expectations and a full-year outlook that was above forecasts. Walmart shares opened Tuesday at $145.61 and closed at $147.48, or 6.57% higher.

    • Home Depot
      HD,
      +1.63%
      rose after the home improvement retailer reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, citing strength in project-related categories, but kept its full-year outlook intact. Home Depot shares opened Tuesday at $304.06 and closed at $311.99.

    • Chinese-listed technology traded sharply higher on Tuesday, including U.S.-traded ADRs for Alibaba Group Holding
      BABA,
      +11.17%      ,
      Baidu Inc.
      BIDU,
      +9.02%
      and JD.com Inc.
      JD,
      +7.14%
      The KraneShares CSI China Internet exchange-traded fund
      KWEB,
      +9.56%
      also traded substantially higher.

    —Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article

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  • Albania: Wrong for Britain to blame Tirana on migrants

    Albania: Wrong for Britain to blame Tirana on migrants

    TIRANA, Albania — Albania’s prime minister said Tuesday that Britain is carrying out a “calculated attack” on his country by blaming it for the increased number of migrants crossing the English Channel.

    Edi Rama said that the new U.K. Cabinet was scapegoating Albanians because it “has gone down a blind alley with its new policy resulting from Brexit.”

    Britain has seen more than 40,000 migrants crossing the Channel in small boats this year, a record high. Almost a third are Albanians, according to the U.K. government.

    The U.K. and France signed an agreement Monday that will see more police patrol beaches in northern France in an attempt to stop migrants from trying to cross in small boats.

    British authorites accuse Albanian criminal gangs of “abusing” Britain’s asylum system and modern slavery laws.

    Ged McCann, intelligence manager at the National Crime Agency, said organized crime groups from Albania were “effectively bringing in the labor force” for illegal marijuana-growing operations in boats across the English Channel.

    “Many individuals that are arrested in cannabis (farms) arrived in the country a matter of days before on small boats,” he said.

    U.K. interior minister Suella Braverman has described the cross arrivals as an “invasion on our southern coast” — words that drew criticism at home and abroad. Rama blasted her words as a “crazy narrative” and attempt to cover up for the U.K.’s failed borders policies.

    “The fact there came no apology shows it was a calculated attack,” he added Tuesday.

    Rama said that visa liberalization would help lower the number of people arriving illegally, but the U.K. government’s policy is “completely the reverse.”

    “The British government has launched a blind alley road with its new policy that has resulted from Brexit,” he said at a news conference.

    Last week, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office said it was “extremely grateful” for Albania’s cooperation on managing migration.

    Sunak has described the migrant crisis as a “serious and escalating problem.” He acknowledged that “not enough” asylum claims are being processed, but maintained his Conservative government was getting a grip on the situation.

    ———

    Jill Lawless contributed to this report from London.

    ——-

    Follow AP’s coverage of migration issues at https://apnews.com/hub/migration and Llazar Semini at https://twitter.com/lsemini

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  • Katie Hobbs wins Arizona governor’s race, flipping state for Democrats

    Katie Hobbs wins Arizona governor’s race, flipping state for Democrats

    PHOENIX — Democrat Katie Hobbs was elected Arizona governor on Monday, defeating an ally of Donald Trump who falsely claimed the 2020 election was rigged and refused to say she would accept the results of her race this year.

    Hobbs, who is Arizona’s secretary of state, rose to prominence as a staunch defender of the legitimacy of the last election and warned that her Republican rival, former television news anchor Kari Lake, would be an agent of chaos. Hobbs’ victory adds further evidence that Trump is weighing down his allies in a crucial battleground state as the former president gears up for an announcement of a 2024 presidential run.

    She will succeed Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who was prohibited by term limit laws from running again. She’s the first Democrat to be elected governor in Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006.

    “For the Arizonans who did not vote for me, I will work just as hard for you — because even in this moment of division, I believe there is so much more that connects us,” Hobbs said in a statement declaring victory. “This was not just about an election — it was about moving this state forward and facing the challenges of our generation.”

    Lake did not immediately comment after the race was called.

    The Associated Press called the governor’s race for Hobbs after the latest round of vote releases gave her a big enough lead that the AP determined she would not relinquish it. The AP concluded that, even though Lake had been posting increasingly larger margins in vote updates from Maricopa County, she was not gaining a big enough share to overtake Hobbs and was running out of remaining votes.

    Vote counting had gone on for days since the Tuesday election, as officials continued to tally massive amounts of late-arriving ballots.

    A onetime Republican stronghold where Democrats made gains during the Trump era, Arizona has been central to efforts by Trump and his allies to cast doubt on Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential victory with false claims of fraud. This year, many Trump-endorsed candidates faltered in general elections in battleground states, though his pick in the Nevada governor’s race, Republican Joe Lombardo, defeated an incumbent Democrat.

    Before entering politics, Hobbs was a social worker who worked with homeless youth and an executive with a large domestic violence shelter in the Phoenix area. She was elected to the state Legislature in 2010, serving one term in the House and three terms in the Senate, rising to minority leader.

    Hobbs eked out a narrow win in 2018 as secretary of state and was thrust into the center of a political storm as Arizona became the centerpiece of the efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election he lost. She appeared constantly on cable news defending the integrity of the vote count.

    The attention allowed her to raise millions of dollars and raise her profile. When she announced her campaign for governor, other prominent Democrats declined to run and Hobbs comfortably won her primary.

    She ran a cautious campaign, sticking largely to scripted and choreographed public appearances. She declined to participate in a debate with Lake, contending that Lake would turn it into a spectacle by spouting conspiracy theories and making false accusations.

    She bet instead that voters would recoil against Lake, who picked verbal fights with journalists as cameras rolled and struck a combative tone toward Democrats and even the establishment Republicans who have long dominated state government.

    Pre-election polls showed the race was tied, but Hobbs’ victory was still a surprise to many Democrats who feared her timidity would turn off voters. She overcame expectations in Maricopa and Pima counties, the metro Phoenix and Tucson areas where the overwhelming majority of Arizona voters live. She also spent considerable time in rural areas, looking to minimize her losses in regions that traditionally support Republicans.

    Lake is well known in much of the state after anchoring the evening news in Phoenix for more than two decades. She ran as a fierce critic of the mainstream media, which she said is unfair to Republicans. She earned Trump’s admiration for her staunch commitment to questioning the results of the 2020 election, a stand she never wavered from even after winning the GOP primary.

    She baselessly accused election officials of slow-rolling the vote count this year and prioritizing Democratic ballots as she narrowly trailed Hobbs for days following the election.

    She has cited a problem with printers at about a third of Maricopa County vote centers that led on-site tabulators to reject some ballots. Election officials told voters to put ballots in a separate box to be counted later, but Republican leaders told their supporters to ignore that instruction and lines in some places backed up.

    The problem affected about 7% of ballots cast in person on Election Day and about 1% of the total cast in the county.

    Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone said he increased security around the elections center Monday in anticipation that the race would be called and emotions could run hot, though he said there was no specific threat. Demonstrators have gathered outside the building for several days but have remained peaceful, he said.

    “I think we’re getting close to the end game so I want to be sure that we’re prepared,” Penzone told reporters in a news conference hours before the race call.

    The sheriff’s office was caught off guard two years ago when armed and angry protesters descended on the elections building in downtown Phoenix after Fox News and the AP called Arizona for Biden, marking the first time a Democrat won the state in more than two decades.

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  • No criminal charges planned in Rudy Giuliani-Ukraine probe, prosecutors say

    No criminal charges planned in Rudy Giuliani-Ukraine probe, prosecutors say

    NEW YORK — Prosecutors in New York do not plan to bring criminal charges against Rudy Giuliani in connection with a probe into his interactions with Ukrainian figures, they revealed in a letter to a judge Monday.

    They said they made the decision after a review of evidence resulting from raids on his residence and law office in April 2021. Federal prosecutors ware investigating whether Giuliani’s dealings with figures in Ukraine in the run-up to the 2020 election required him to register as a foreign agent.

    Prosecutors said a grand jury probe that led to the issuance of warrants that resulted in the seizure of Giuliani’s electronic devices had concluded.

    They said that based on information currently available, criminal charges would not be forthcoming.

    “In my business, we would call that total victory,” Giuliani’s lawyer, Robert Costello, told The Associated Press. “We appreciate what the U.S. attorney’s has done. We only wish they had done it a lot sooner.”

    Sixteen of Giuliani’s devices were seized as part of a federal investigation into Giuliani’s interactions with Ukrainian figures to see whether he violated a law governing lobbying on behalf of foreign countries or entities.

    Giuliani is an attorney and a former personal lawyer for ex-President Donald Trump. His communications with clients are generally protected by law, though there are exceptions.

    Giuliani maintained throughout the probe that he had done nothing wrong. At the time of the filing by prosecutors, Giuliani was on a talk show and apparently unaware of the development.

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  • Lavrov taken to hospital at G20 meeting, officials say

    Lavrov taken to hospital at G20 meeting, officials say

    NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AP) — Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was taken to the hospital after suffering a health problem following his arrival for the Group of 20 summit in Bali, multiple Indonesian authorities said Monday.

    Russia’s top diplomat arrived on the resort island the previous evening ahead of the meeting, which begins Tuesday.

    Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova later denied that Lavrov had been hospitalized but did not address whether he had received treatment.

    She posted a video of Lavrov, looking healthy in a T-shirt and shorts, in which he was asked to comment on the report of his treatment.

    “They’ve been writing about our president for 10 years that he’s fallen ill. It’s a game that is not new in politics,” Lavrov says in the video.

    Russia’s state news agency Tass cited Lavrov as saying, “I’m in the hotel, reading materials for the summit tomorrow.”

    Lavrov is the highest-ranking Russian official at the gathering, which U.S. President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping and other leaders are attending.

    Four Indonesian government and medical officials told The Associated Press that Lavrov was receiving treatment at the Sanglah Hospital in the provincial capital, Denpasar.

    All of the officials declined to be identified as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

    The hospital did not immediately comment.

    Two of the people said Lavrov had been treated for a heart condition.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attendance at the G-20 had been uncertain until last week, when officials confirmed he would not come and that Russia would be represented by Lavrov instead.

    Fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to be among the issues discussed at the two-day G-20 meeting, which brings together officials from countries representing more than 80% of the world’s economic output.

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  • Ukraine troops prepare to reclaim city abandoned by Russians

    Ukraine troops prepare to reclaim city abandoned by Russians

    Russia relinquished its final foothold in a major city in southern Ukraine on Friday, clearing the way for victorious Ukrainian forces to reclaim the country’s only Russian-held provincial capital that could act as a springboard for further advances into occupied territory.

    Russia’s Defense Ministry said its troops finished withdrawing from the western bank of the river that divides Ukraine’s Kherson region at 5 a.m. The area they left included the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital Russia had captured during its nearly nine-month invasion of Ukraine.

    Videos and photos on social media showed residents jubilantly taking to the streets and a Ukrainian flag flying over a monument in a central Kherson square for the first time since the city was seized in early March. Some footage showed crowds cheering on men in military uniform.

    Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the city was back in Ukrainian hands. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said “an operation to liberate Kherson” and the surrounding region of the same name was underway.

    “It will be possible to talk about establishing Ukrainian control over the city only after an official report by the General Staff” of the Ukrainian army, Andriy Yusov told The Associated Press.

    Ukrainian intelligence urged Russian soldiers who might still be in the city to surrender in anticipation of Ukrainian forces arriving. “Your command left you to the mercy of fate,” it said in a statement. “Your commanders urge you to change into civilian clothes and try to escape from Kherson on your own. Obviously, you won’t be able to.”

    A Ukrainian regional official, Serhii Khlan, disputed the Russian Defense Ministry’s claim that the 30,000 retreating troops took all 5,000 pieces of equipment with them, saying “a lot” of hardware got left behind.

    The final Russian withdrawal came six weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the Kherson region and three other Ukrainian provinces, vowing they would remain Russian forever.

    Moscow’s forces still control about 70% of the Kherson region following the pullback ordered amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    The Kremlin remained defiant Friday, insisting the withdrawal in no way represented an embarrassment for Putin. Moscow continues to view the entire Kherson region as part of Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

    He added that the Kremlin doesn’t regret holding festivities just over a month ago to celebrate the annexation of occupied or partially occupied regions of Ukraine.

    Shortly before the Russian announcement, the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the situation in the province as “difficult.” It reported Russian shelling of some villages and towns Ukrainian forces reclaimed in recent weeks during their counteroffensive in the Kherson region.

    The General Staff of Ukraine’s army said the Russian forces left looted homes, damaged power lines and mined roads in their wake. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak predicted Thursday the departing Russians would seek to turn Kherson into a “city of death” and would continue to shell it after relocating across the Dnieper River.

    Ukrainian officials were wary of the Russian pullback announced this week, fearing their soldiers could get drawn into an ambush in Kherson city, which had a prewar population of 280,000. Military analysts also had predicted it would take Russia’s military at least a week to complete the troop withdrawal.

    Without referencing events unfolding in Kherson, Zelenskyy said in a video message thanking U.S. military personnel on Veterans Day that “victory will be ours.”

    “Your example inspires Ukrainians today to fight back against Russian tyranny,” he said. “Special thanks to the many American veterans who have volunteered to fight in Ukraine and to the American people for the amazing support you have given Ukraine. With your help, we have stunned the world and are pushing Russian forces back.”

    However, some quarters of the Ukrainian government barely disguised their glee at the pace of the Russian withdrawal.

    “The Russian army leaves the battlefields in a triathlon mode: steeplechase, broad jumping, swimming,” Andriy Yermak, a senior presidential adviser, tweeted. Social media videos showed villagers hugging Ukrainian troops.

    Recapturing Kherson city could provide Ukraine a strong position from which to expand its southern counteroffensive to other Russian-occupied areas, potentially including Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014.

    From its forces’ new positions on the eastern bank, however, the Kremlin could try to escalate the war, which U.S. assessments showed may already have killed or wounded tens of thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

    Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army forces in Europe, described the retreat from Kherson as a “colossal failure” for Russia, and said he expects Ukrainian commanders will work to keep the pressure on Russia’s depleted forces ahead of a possible future push for Crimea next year.

    “It’s too early to be planning the victory parade, for sure. But I would expect by the end of this year — so in the next, let’s say, eight weeks — the Ukrainians are going to be in place to start setting the conditions for the decisive phase of this campaign, which is the liberation of Crimea, which I think will happen by the summer,” he said in a telephone interview.

    Meanwhile, a Russian S-300 missile strike overnight killed seven people in Mykolaiv, about 68 kilometers (42 miles) from Kherson’s regional capital, Zelenskyy’s office said Friday morning. Rescue crews sifted through the rubble of a five-story residential building in search of survivors.

    Standing in front of what used to be his family’s apartment, Roman Mamontov, 16, awaited news about his missing mother. Mamontov said he found “nothing there” when he opened the door to look for his mother after the missile struck. Friday was her 34th birthday, the teenager said.

    “My mind was blank at that moment. I thought it could not be true,” he said. “The cake she prepared for the celebration is still there.”

    Zelenskyy called the missile strike “the terrorist state’s cynical response to our successes at the front.”

    “Russia does not give up its despicable tactics. And we will not give up our struggle. The occupiers will be held to account for every crime against Ukraine and Ukrainians,” Zelenskyy said.

    The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t acknowledge striking a residential building in Mykolaiv, saying only that an ammunition depot was destroyed “in the area of the city.”

    Mykolaiv mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych told the AP that Russia could step up its shelling of his city in light of Ukraine’s advances. “The more success the Ukrainian army has, Russia lowers its bar of terrorism,” he said.

    Sienkevych said that S-300 missiles launched from the Kherson region can reach Mykolaiv within one minute. Some 149 civilians have been killed and 700 people seriously wounded in the city since the Feb. 24 start of the war.

    The president’s office said Russian drones, rockets and heavy artillery strikes across eight regions killed at least 14 civilians between Thursday morning and Friday morning.

    The state of the key Antonivskiy Bridge that links the western and eastern banks of the Dnieper in the Kherson region remained unclear Friday. Russian media reports suggested the bridge was blown up following the Russian withdrawal; pro-Kremlin reporters posted footage of the bridge missing a large section.

    But Sergei Yeliseyev, a Russian-installed official in the Kherson region, told the Interfax news agency the bridge hadn’t been blown up.

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  • Federal judge strikes down Biden administration’s student-debt forgiveness plan

    Federal judge strikes down Biden administration’s student-debt forgiveness plan

    A federal judge in Texas on Thursday struck down the Biden administration’s student-debt forgiveness plan, imperiling a key administration priority that would have canceled up to $20,000 in student loans for tens of millions of borrowers.

    The Biden administration’s plan is an “unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power” that also failed to go through normal regulatory processes, Judge Mark Pittman of the Northern District of Texas wrote in a 26-page opinion.

    “No one can plausibly deny that it is either one of the largest delegations of legislative power to the executive branch, or one of the largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the United States,” Pittman, an appointee of former President Donald Trump wrote.

    The Biden administration can appeal the verdict. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Two borrowers—supported by the Job Creators Network, a conservative group—were granted standing in the case because they didn’t qualify for the program. One plaintiff had private student loans that weren’t eligible for forgiveness, while the other wasn’t the recipient of a Pell Grant, meaning he didn’t qualify for an extra $10,000 in forgiveness for which only Pell Grant recipients are eligible. The court ruled that they had been deprived of their right to voice their disagreement with the contours of the program through the usual regulatory process.

    An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

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  • Russians announce withdrawal from part of Kherson, a key position in southern Ukraine

    Russians announce withdrawal from part of Kherson, a key position in southern Ukraine

    Russia’s military has announced that it’s withdrawing from the western bank of the Dnieper River in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, annexed by Moscow in September.

    The top Russian military commander in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, reported to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Wednesday that it was impossible to deliver supplies to the city of Kherson and other areas on the western bank, and Shoigu agreed with his proposal to retreat and set up defenses on the eastern bank.

    The withdrawal from the city of Kherson is a major setback for Russia — it is the only regional capital Russian forces had seized during the eight-month war.

    Elsewhere villages and towns in Ukraine saw more heavy fighting and shelling Wednesday as Ukrainian and Russian forces strained to advance on different fronts after more than 8 1/2 months of war.

    At least nine civilians were killed and 24 others were wounded in 24 hours, the Ukrainian president’s office said. It accused Russia of using explosive drones, rockets, heavy artillery and aircraft to attack eight regions in the country’s southeast.

    Ukrainian and Russian forces also clashed overnight over Snihurivka, a town about 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of the southern city of Kherson. Ukraine’s army hopes to reclaim the Russian-occupied city, the only regional capital captured during Moscow’s February 24 invasion and a key target of an ongoing counteroffensive.

    Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Kherson region’s Kremlin-appointed administration, said in a Telegram post that the Ukrainian army had “gained a foothold” along a railway line in Snihurivka’s north. In a separate post, he claimed Russian forces had repulsed the Ukrainian advance.

    The Kherson region is one of four provinces of Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed and subsequently placed under Russian martial law. The Russian military has concentrated much of its firepower on securing control of the others – Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.

    Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that the return of all occupied territory was a condition for any peace talks with Russia. The Kremlin is unlikely to give up its internationally unrecognized claim to the regions annexed in September or to Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.

    The president’s office said widespread Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system continued. Two cities not far from Europe’s largest nuclear power plant were shelled overnight, it said. More than 20 residential buildings, an industrial plant, a gas pipeline and a power line were reportedly damaged in Nikopol, which lies across the Dnieper River from the the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

    Further west, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Ukrainian governor reported “massive” overnight strikes with exploding Iranian-made drones that wounded four energy company workers in the city of Dnipro.

    “Attacks on civilian infrastructure are war crimes in themselves. The Kremlin is at war with Ukrainian civilians, trying to leave millions of people without water and light (for them) to freeze in the winter,” Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko said on Ukrainian TV.

    In a related development, a senior Russian security official arrived in Iran for high-level talks late on Tuesday, Russian media reported.

    News of the trip by Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the powerful Russian Security Council chaired by Putin, came days after Tehran admitted that it had supplied Moscow with the explosive-laden drones, after weeks of official denials.

    A Washington-based think tank linked Patrushev’s visit to likely discussions over the possible sale of Iranian surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia. The Institute for the Study of War said late Tuesday that the Kremlin was “continuing efforts to covertly acquire munitions for use in Ukraine, to mitigate the effects of international sanctions and backfill Russia’s ongoing depletion of domestic munitions stockpiles.”

    The increasingly close military and political cooperation between Moscow and Tehran at the time of the war in Ukraine has worried the United States and other Western powers.

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  • Here are the House seats that have flipped in the midterm elections

    Here are the House seats that have flipped in the midterm elections

    Republicans need to flip just five seats during Tuesday’s midterm elections in order to win majority control of the House of Representatives and would need to net one Senate seat to overcome Democrats’ marginal 50-seat majority in the Senate.

    Republicans have better odds of winning both chambers than Democrats, though their odds are higher on the House side. As of Tuesday morning, FiveThirtyEight placed Republicans’ odds of taking majority control of the Senate at 59 in 100 and the party’s odds in the House at 84 in 100.

    Read: Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say

    As the Associated Press calls results nationwide, follow along for updates on which seats are flipping.

    Florida

    The first congressional seats to flip were in Florida, where Republican Anna Paulina Luna defeated Democratic candidate Eric Lynn by 8.6-points (with 99% of results reported). The since-redrawn district was represented by Democrat Charlie Crist, who left the office to launch an unsuccessful challenge against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    A second seat flipped in the state’s is the 7th District, where Republican Cory Mills came out on top with 58.5% of the vote. The district, previously represented by Democrat Stephanie Murphy, was redrawn to be solidly red.

    Virginia

    Republican Jen Kiggans ousted Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in Virginia’s 2nd congressional district. Luria’s seat was one of two Virginia seats deemed “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report. With 73% of the results reported, Kiggans had received 55% of the vote.

    The other incumbent in a toss-up race, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, secured re-election with about 52% of the vote.

    Tennessee

    Republican Andy Ogles has won election to Tennessee’s 5th congressional district, the AP called shortly after midnight. He received about 56% of the vote, with 97% reported.

    Ogles will replace retiring Democrat Jim Cooper, who decided not to seek re-election following redistricting that shifted the district from a solid Democratic district to “likely” Republican, according to Cook Political Report.

    North Carolina

    Democrat Wiley Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district with 51.3% of the vote. The state senator’s win marks the first pick-up for Democrats.

    The race was rated as a “toss-up” by CPR following Republican Rep. Ted Budd’s decision to leave the House to run for the open Senate seat in North Carolina. The AP has called the Senate race for Budd.

    Texas

    Two-term Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez defeated Republican Mayra Flores, who won a special election in June to replace Democratic Filemon Vela Jr., who left Congress to work at a lobbying firm. The two incumbents were set to square off following redistricting. Gonzalez picked up just under 53% of the vote, compared to Flores’ 44%.

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  • Astros’ Peña 1st rookie hitter to win World Series MVP

    Astros’ Peña 1st rookie hitter to win World Series MVP

    HOUSTON — Jeremy Peña’s key to success was keeping his head dry.

    Capping a freshman season like no other, he became the first rookie position player to win a World Series MVP award Saturday night after hitting .400 in the Houston Astros’ six-game victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.

    “The hardest part was just blocking everything that’s not part of the game,” Peña said. “There’s a saying that you can’t sink a ship with water around. It sinks if water gets inside. So I just try to stay strong and keep the water outside my head.”

    Peña also won a Gold Glove and was the AL Championship Series MVP. The 25-year-old shortstop became the first hitter to win those three prizes in a career, according to OptaSTATS — and he did it all in his rookie season.

    “It has a lot to do with my family, my upbringing,” he said.

    Peña praised Dusty Baker, the Astros’ 73-year-old manager. When Baker made his major league managerial debut for San Francisco on April 6, 1993, the leadoff hitter for the other team was Peña’s father, St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Gerónimo Peña.

    “Dusty Baker’s a legend in the sport,” Jeremy Peña said. “Not just because he’s been around. He’s had success at this game. He brings the best out of his players. He gives you the confidence to just go out and play hard and let the game take care of itself.”

    Peña singled to chase Phillies starter Zack Wheeler in Game 6, giving the Astros two baserunners for the first time. Yordan Alvarez followed with a go-ahead, three-run homer that sent Houston to a 4-1 victory.

    Peña finished the postseason with a .345 batting average, four homers, eight RBIs and a 1.005 OPS. He also became the first rookie shortstop to win a Gold Glove, as well as the first to homer in the World Series.

    Just 24 when he was handed the starting job at the beginning of the season after Carlos Correa left as a free agent, Peña became the third rookie at any position to earn World Series MVP, joining a pair of right-handed pitchers: the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Larry Sherry in 1959 and Miami’s Liván Hernández in 1997.

    Peña’s 18th-inning homer completed a Division Series sweep at Seattle and he hit a go-ahead drive off Noah Syndergaard in Game 5 of the World Series. His Game 2 jersey is headed to the Hall of Fame.

    “You have to make tough decisions in this job, and Jeremy’s making it look like it was an easy decision, and it wasn’t,” Houston general manager James Click said. “Carlos is a great player, and he’s been a huge part of this franchise. But to do what Jeremy did, to step in and elevate his game in the playoffs, it just speaks to his hard work, his character and the talent that he has. There’s not that many special guys on the planet that can do what he just did.”

    Peña became the ninth player to win MVP of a League Championship Series and the World Series in the same season. He batted .353 with two homers and four RBIs against the Yankees in the ALCS.

    The only other player to win an LCS MVP award, World Series MVP and a Gold Glove during their career was pitcher Orel Hershiser, who took all three prizes with the Dodgers in 1988.

    Peña hit .291 with 22 homers and 63 RBIs during the regular season and likely will finish high in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Seattle outfielder Julio Rodríguez is the favorite.

    Others to win LCS and World Series MVP in one year were Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell (1979), St. Louis’ Darrell Porter (1982), Hershiser (1988), Hernández (2003), Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (2008), the Cardinals’ David Freese (2011), San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner (2014) and the Dodgers’ Corey Seager (2020).

    Only four other rookies were LCS MVPs: Baltimore right-hander Mike Boddicker in 1983, Hernández in 1997, St. Louis right-hander Michael Wacha in 2013 and Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena in 2020.

    Peña thought back to last year’s Game 6 loss to Atlanta at Minute Maid Park, where he joined the Astros but was inactive.

    “These guys were left with a bitter taste in their mouth last year,” he said. “Me being in the dugout last year, I didn’t want to experience that again.”

    ———

    AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb and https://twitter.com/AP—Sports

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  • Museum fun

    Museum fun

    I remember going to the Chicago art museum with some people for a college course. I was paired with a woman, her name was Nicole. We knew each other from highschool. We had a blast talking about art and history. I recall telling her so much about the Byzantine empire and us nerding out. I still remember that day and wish it never ended…

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  • U.S. adds 263,000 new jobs last month — and it’s still too strong for the Fed

    U.S. adds 263,000 new jobs last month — and it’s still too strong for the Fed

    The numbers: The economy gained surprisingly strong 261,000 new jobs in October, underscoring the persistent strength of a labor market that the Federal Reserve worries will exacerbate high inflation.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 205,000 new jobs.

    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, the government said Friday, as more people lost jobs and the size of the labor force shrank a little bit.

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the labor market is “out of balance” because there’s too many job openings and too few people to fill them.

    Fed officials worry the labor shortage is driving up wages and making it harder for them to reduce inflation back to precrisis levels of 2% or so. The cost of living has risen 8.2% in the past year, one of the highest increases since the early 1980s.

    Layoffs and unemployment are likely to increase, however, if the Fed keeps raising U.S. interest rates as expected. The central bank could push a key short-term rate to as high as 5% by next year from near zero just nine months ago.

    Rising interest rates slow the economy and sometimes trigger recessions. Many economists predict a downturn is likely by next year. Powell himself admitted the odds of avoiding a recession have fallen due to persistently high inflation.

    In October, wages grew 0.4%. Average hourly pay rose slightly in September to $32.58, lowering the increase over the past year to 4.7% from 5%.

    It’s the first time in almost a year that the rate of wage growth has dropped below 5%. Before the pandemic, they were rising around 3% a year.

    Another potential pressure valve for the economy showed little progress, however. The so-called participation rate — or share of working-age people in the labor force — dipped to 62.2% from 62.3%.

    U.S. stocks gave up gains in premarket trades after the report. Until hiring slows a lot further and unemployment rises, the Fed is unlikely to take its foot off the monetary brakes.

    Big picture: The economy is slowing — almost every major indicator is much softer compared to earlier in the year.

    The labor market is one of the few exceptions.

    Normally that’s a good thing, but the Fed thinks the the labor market is too strong for its own good. The series of rate hikes undertaken by the central bank is bound to slow hiring even further and cause unemployment to rise in the months ahead.

    The potential saving grace, Powell and some other economists say? Businesses have struggled so hard to hire people amid a labor shortage that they might not lay off as many people as they usually do when the economy goes sour.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.46%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.06%
    were set to open lower in Friday trades. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.158%
    rose to 4.19%.

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