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  • Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

    Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

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    The numbers: The U.S. created a stronger-than-expected 253,000 new jobs in April and wages rose sharply, indicating there’s still lot of demand for labor even as the economy slows.

    The increase surpassed the 180,000 forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

    The unemployment rate, what’s more, fell a tick to 3.4% from 3.5%,…

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  • U.S. stock futures see volatile trading on Fed and bank angst; Apple results loom

    U.S. stock futures see volatile trading on Fed and bank angst; Apple results loom

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    U.S. stock futures were inching higher Thursday as traders contemplated the latest Fed decision, more banking sector stress, and Apple’s impending results.

    How are stock-index futures trading
    • S&P 500 futures
      ES00,
      -0.10%

      rose 3 points, or 0.1%, to 4111

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
      YM00,
      -0.08%

      added 6 points, or 0%, to 33498

    • Nasdaq 100 futures
      NQ00,
      +0.20%

      climbed 40 points, or 0.3%, to 13140

    On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.80%

    fell 270 points, or 0.8%, to 33414, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.70%

    declined 29 points, or 0.7%, to 4091, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.46%

    dropped 55 points, or 0.46%, to 12025.

    What’s driving markets

    Results from Apple
    AAPL,
    -0.65%
    ,
    the market’s biggest company, which are due after the closing bell on Thursday, will move into sharper focus as the session progresses.

    But before that investors must contend with disappointment over the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and renewed fretting about the U.S. regional banking sector that have delivered volatile trading over the past 24 hours and left stock-index futures struggling to rally.

    The S&P 500 slid 0.7% on Wednesday after the Fed again raised interest rates and irked some traders by seeming equivocal on whether the implied pause in monetary tightening meant the cycle of rate hikes were at an end and cuts could come soon.

    “As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a further 0.25%, which of itself was not market moving. Of rather more interest was the implication that the rate hiking cycle had now ended, even though the Fed remains poised to act again if necessary,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

    “At the same time, the Fed dampened expectations for any interest rate reductions in the immediate future, contrary to investor hopes that some kind of easing may follow before the end of the year, depending on the severity of any potential recession,” he added.

    Traders will also be keeping an eye out for any surprises when the European Central Bank delivers its policy decision at 2:15 p.m. Central European time (8:15 a.m. Eastern).

    Then, late on Wednesday, just hours after Fed Chair Jay Powell said that the banking sector was “sound and resilient” shares in PacWest Bancorp
    PACW,
    -1.98%

    plunged 50% in after-hours trading after reports the struggling regional bank’s executives were weighing a possible sale.

    Stock index futures dived further in response on fears of continued turmoil in the financial sector. But though they have managed to recover much of those secondary losses the febrile action signals a nervous market, analysts noted.

    “It looks like more trouble is brewing for the U.S. banking sector, on the contrary to what Powell said yesterday,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote.

    Other company results due on Thursday include Moderna
    MRNA,
    -0.96%
    ,
    Peloton
    PTON,
    +2.56%
    ,
    Kellogg
    K,
    +0.49%
    ,
    before the opening bell rings, followed by Lyft
    LYFT,
    +2.35%

    and Shopify
    SHOP,
    -1.09%

    after the close.

    U.S. economic updates set for release on Thursday include weekly initial jobless claims; first quarter productivity and unit labor costs; and the March trade deficit. All are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

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  • ADP says U.S. added 296,000 private jobs in April, a nine-month high

    ADP says U.S. added 296,000 private jobs in April, a nine-month high

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    The numbers: Private-sector employment jumped by 296,000 in April and hit a nine-month high, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, in a sign the U.S. labor market is still going strong.

    The increase in hiring was much larger than expected. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a gain of 133,000 private sector jobs.

    The…

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  • Why it might take ‘a stock-market meltdown’ to resolve the debt-ceiling standoff

    Why it might take ‘a stock-market meltdown’ to resolve the debt-ceiling standoff

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    It might take a market mishap to end a debt-ceiling standoff that threatens to trigger a previously unthinkable default on U.S. government debt.

    “An interesting question now is whether financial market vigilantes, in bonds, stocks or even currencies could flex their muscles the closer the government gets to running out of cash,” said Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, in a note late last week.

    U.S….

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  • Aussie dollar, bond yields surge after central bank’s surprise rate hike

    Aussie dollar, bond yields surge after central bank’s surprise rate hike

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    Australian government bond prices plunged and the country’s currency surged after the central bank surprised markets on Tuesday with another rate hike.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 3.85% after traders had expected no move.

    The RBA said inflation, which is running at an annual rate…

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  • What is a credit-default swap? Debt-ceiling jitters put obscure instrument back in spotlight.

    What is a credit-default swap? Debt-ceiling jitters put obscure instrument back in spotlight.

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    It’s usually not a good sign when obscure financial instruments are making headlines. And that’s the case now as the political standoff over the U.S. government’s debt ceiling puts credit-default swaps back in the spotlight.

    How CDS work

    Credit-default swaps, or CDS, are instruments that effectively allow a lender to insure against default by a borrower. An investor who owns a corporate bond, bank credits or government debt, can buy CDS to protect against default. Speculators can also use CDS to place bets, though…

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  • Stock-market investors scan these early recession indicators for signs the U.S. economy will crack. You should, too.

    Stock-market investors scan these early recession indicators for signs the U.S. economy will crack. You should, too.

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    Seemingly every day, U.S. investors are being buffeted by a flurry of sometimes conflicting economic data.

    Take this past week, for example: the U.S. leading economic index sank 1.2% in March, its biggest decline in three years. The indicator has now declined for 12 straight months.

    Then, one day later on Friday, investors received readings…

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  • U.K. deputy prime minister to resign after investigation into bullying complaints

    U.K. deputy prime minister to resign after investigation into bullying complaints

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    LONDON (AP) — U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab resigned Friday after an independent investigation into complaints that he bullied civil servants.

    Raab’s announcement on Friday came the day after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak received findings into eight formal complaints that Raab, who is also justice secretary, had been abusive toward staff during a previous stint in that office and while serving as foreign secretary and Brexit secretary.

    Raab, 49, denied claims he belittled and demeaned his staff and said he “behaved professionally at all times,” but had said he would resign if the bullying complaints were upheld.

    Sunak received the report Thursday morning and was carefully considering the findings but didn’t immediately make a decision, spokesperson Max Blain said.

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  • Jobless claims climb to 245,000 and signal slight cooling in hot labor market

    Jobless claims climb to 245,000 and signal slight cooling in hot labor market

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    The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rose by 5,000 to 245,000 and pointed to a small erosion in a robust U.S. labor market.

    New jobless claims increased from a revised 240,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The figures are seasonally adjusted.

    The number of people applying for unemployment benefits is one of the best barometers of whether the economy is getting better or worse.

    New jobless claims are still very low, but they have risen from less than 200,000 in January in a sign the labor market has cooled slightly as higher interest rates dampen U.S. growth.

    Key details: Thirty-five of the 53 U.S. states and territories that report jobless claims showed a decrease last week. Eighteen posted an increase.

    Most of the increase in new jobless claims were in New York, where new filings typically rise during school breaks and fall immediately afterward.

    Other states reported little change.

    The number of people collecting unemployment benefits in the U.S., meanwhile, jumped by 61,000 to 1.87 million in the week ended April 8. That’s the highest level since November 2021.

    The gradual increase in these so-called continuing claims suggests it’s taking longer for people who lose their jobs to find new ones.

    Big picture: Wall Street is watching jobless benefits closely because it’s one of the first indicators to start blinking red when the U.S. is headed toward recession.

    New jobless claims have crept higher this year after touching a 54-year low, pointing to some cooling in a hot labor market. But the labor market is still quite strong

    The Federal Reserve wants the labor market to cool even further to temper a sharp increase in wages and help the bank combat high inflation. A series of interest-rate increases by the central bank have slowed the economy and eventually should curb the appetite for workers.

    Looking ahead: “With talk of deteriorating economic conditions and in the wake of the recent bank failures, businesses may turn more cautious in their hiring practices,” said senior economic advisor Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services.

    “Our view remains that layoffs will rise less dramatically than normally might occur as companies do all they can to avoid shedding workers who have been incredibly difficult to recruit and retain,” said chief economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.44%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.60%

    were set to open lower in Thursday trades.

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  • Yellen says China acts illegally and tries to dominate rivals in speech on economic ties

    Yellen says China acts illegally and tries to dominate rivals in speech on economic ties

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    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday criticized China’s aid to companies as she set out how the U.S. wants to act versus the world’s number two-economy.

    In excerpts of remarks for a speech to be delivered Thursday morning at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Yellen said China has acted illegally.

    China in recent years has expanded support for its state-owned enterprises and domestic private firms to “dominate foreign competitors,” she said. “This strategy has been coupled with aggressive efforts to acquire new technological know-how and intellectual property – including through IP theft and other illicit means.”

    Yellen also said the U.S. will prioritize national security interests even at the expense of the economy. “As in all of our foreign relations, national security is of paramount importance in our relationship with China. For example, we have made clear that safeguarding certain technologies from the PRC’s military and security apparatus is of vital national interest,” she said. She stressed that the U.S. will not just protects its own national security interests but also those “of our allies and partners” — likely an allusion to Taiwan — as well as human rights, she said.

    Yellen also said the U.S. was seeking cooperation on global challenges, such as climate and debt distress. “We call on China to follow through on its promise to work with us on these issues – not as a favor to us, but out of our joint duty and obligation to the world. Tackling these issues together will also advance the national interests of both of our countries.”

    Yellen made no mention of the tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration that have been left in place by the Biden administration in the released excerpts. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tariffs of 19% apply on roughly two-thirds of China’s exports. Chinese tariffs of 21% apply on 58% of U.S. exports.

    A spokesperson for China’s commerce ministry said U.S. and Chinese officials met last week, discussing trade and communication, as a report said Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo may visit Beijing and Shanghai.

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  • Cannabidiol (CBD) Oil Market To Reach USD 3213.4 Million By The End of 2029, Growing at a CAGR of 28.3%| Valuates Reports – World News Report – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

    Cannabidiol (CBD) Oil Market To Reach USD 3213.4 Million By The End of 2029, Growing at a CAGR of 28.3%| Valuates Reports – World News Report – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

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    BANGALORE, India, April 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Cannabidiol Oil (CBD Oil) Market is segmented by type (Hemp-derived, Marijuana-derived), by application (Pharmaceuticals, Food, Cosmetics, Other): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2023-2029.

    Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global Cannabidiol Oil (CBD Oil) market size is estimated to be worth USD 551.2 million in 2022 and is forecast to a readjusted size of USD 3213.4 million by 2029 with a CAGR of 28.3% during the forecast period 2023-2029.

    Major factors driving the Growth of the Cannabidiol Oil (CBD Oil) Market

    The primary factor influencing the Cannabidiol Oil Market is the increased demand for CBD for health and wellness purposes because of its therapeutic characteristics. A significant element that is anticipated to increase the manufacture of CBD-infused goods is the increased acceptance and use of products due to regulatory approvals. Additionally, key businesses in the cannabis sector and the governments of several nations are funding R&D initiatives.

    According to multiple scientific investigations, CBD is a beneficial treatment for a number of neurological conditions, including epilepsy.  The medicinal advantages of cannabidiol are becoming more widely known, and this has led consumers to purchase cannabidiol products regardless…

    Original Author Link click here to read complete story..

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  • 4 signs stocks are headed for a punishing selloff, as even strong performers look vulnerable

    4 signs stocks are headed for a punishing selloff, as even strong performers look vulnerable

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    U.S. stocks just touched their highest levels in two months. Yet, signs of a looming selloff are piling up, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical strategist at BTIG.

    The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.33%

    and Russell 3000
    RUA,
    +0.40%

    are both trading just shy of their highs from mid-February, but market breadth hasn’t recovered, as index gains over the past month have largely relied on megacap names like Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.93%

    and Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.01%

    helping to offset weakness in other areas of the market.

    As of Friday, only 45% of Russell 3000 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to data cited by Krinsky. By comparison, when the broad-market gauge was trading at its highest level of 2023 back in February, 70% of the individual stocks included in the index were trading above their 200-day moving average. Technical analysts use moving averages as a gauge of a stock or index’s momentum.


    BTIG

    Lackluster breath is looking like more of an issue analysts say, especially now that the Nasdaq’s outperformance appears to be fading after leading markets higher since the start of the year.

    Over the last two weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.30%

    has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.28%

    by the widest margin since the two-week period ending Dec 30, according to FactSet data.

    Krinsky cited exchange-traded funds that feature megacap technology names, including the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF
    IGV,
    +0.45%
    ,
    the Communications Services Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
    XLC,
    -0.57%

    and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
    XLY,
    +0.71%
    ,
    as examples of emerging weakness in this critical sector of the market. Meanwhile, regional bank stocks, small-cap stocks and shares of retailers, all of which have lagged behind the market this year, look weak.

    See: Are tech stocks becoming a haven again? ‘It is a mistake,’ say market analysts.

    Krinsky summed up this dynamic thus: “The weak parts of the market remain weak, while the strong parts now appear vulnerable,” the BTIG analyst said in a Sunday note to clients.

    Furthermore, “[i]n absolute and relative terms, the tech sector looks like a poor risk/reward to us here,” Krinsky added.

    Low implied volatility is another issue for markets, Krinsky said. That can mean investors have gotten too complacent and markets may be heading for a selloff, analysts say.

    The Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    -0.41%
    ,
    otherwise known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” finished Friday at its lowest end-of-day level since Jan. 4, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Cboe S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index, which tracks implied volatility over a shorter time horizon, has also fallen to January lows, FactSet data show.

    Such low levels mean volatility could be poised to “mean revert,” Krinsky said, which may portend a selloff in the months ahead for the S&P 500, the most liquid and most closely watched gauge of U.S. stock-market performance.

    Implied volatility gauges measure activity in option contracts linked to the S&P 500 to gauge how volatile traders expect markets to be over the coming days and weeks. Typically, implied volatility advances when U.S. stocks are falling.

    The greenback has shown some signs of life in recent sessions, although the U.S. dollar remains well below the multi decade highs it reached back in September. That the buck bounced off its February lows late last week suggests that momentum could be skewed toward the upside for the dollar, Krinsky said, which could create more problems for stocks given the dollar’s tendency to weigh on markets during 2022.

    The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    -0.43%
    ,
    a gauge of the dollar’s strength measured against a basket of rivals, was up 0.7% in recent trade at 102.22.

    All of these factors support the notion that stocks could be headed for what Krinsky called the “reverse October playbook.”


    BTIG

    Just as the S&P 500 bottomed following the hotter-than-expected September report on consumer-price inflation, the market’s monthslong rebound rally may have peaked following last week’s CPI report for March, which showed consumer prices rose a scant 0.1% last month, less than the 0.2% increase that had been forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch.

    Not everybody agrees with this assessment. Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, cited market data going back to 1934 to show that U.S. stocks tend to rally after inflation peaks. Consumer-price inflation reached its highest level in more than four decades when the CPI headline number showed prices up 9.1% year-over-year in June.


    CLOCKTOWER GROUP

    U.S. stocks look set to decline for a second day in a row on Monday, with the S&P 500 off 0.3% at 4,126, while the Nasdaq Composite was down by 0.4% at 12,070, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded marginally lower at 33,881.

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  • Stocks saw biggest rally into an earnings season since 2009. What’s next?

    Stocks saw biggest rally into an earnings season since 2009. What’s next?

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    Stock-market bulls rode a sizable rally into the start of what’s expected to be a downbeat earnings season. Analysts at Jefferies say that’s not a bad sign.

    “Whether you believe recent performance has been warranted or not, there’s one thing that isn’t debatable: equities have rallied hard right into earnings. In fact, the [roughly] 7.5% gain during the month of trading into Friday was the largest such rally since 1Q09 when stocks marked the bottom of the GFC (Great Financial Crisis),” they said, in a Saturday note. In fact, the gain for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.21%

    in the month through Friday was the third largest since 1999.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    +7.55%

    and other big Wall Street banks unofficially kicked off earnings season on Friday.

    “It does set the hurdle for stocks in a bit of a funny place,” the analysts wrote.

    Funny how?

    They noted that earnings revisions heading into any quarter has seen Wall Street analysts lower the bar by an average of 70 basis points. Perhaps unsurprisingly, analysts have produced bigger downside revisions at 80 basis points. That means earnings expectations have deteriorated more than usual, while stocks have rallied more than usual.

    So now what?


    Jefferies

    “Interestingly, the two larger rallies were ahead of 1Q01 and 1Q09, a bear market rally and the start of a decade-plus bull market,” the analysts wrote. “That said, and contrary to what you might think, it isn’t necessarily that bad of a sign. When the [S&P 500] rallies more than typical into earnings, it does tend to bring flat trading over the next several weeks. However, it also tends to coincide with better performance in the back half of earnings…leading to just slightly worse than average SPX performance vs. the typical earnings season.”

    While the chase higher “may not continue, we also won’t necessarily see a stunning reversal” as earnings roll in, they said.

    The first-quarter earnings reporting season picks up steam this week, with 60 S&P 500 companies, including six components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
    DJIA,
    -0.42%
    ,
     reporting quarterly results, according to FactSet. Those companies will report as Wall Street analysts remain pessimistic about results for the quarter, and the prospect of another so-called “earnings recession” in which profits contract for at least two straight quarters.

    Read: Tesla, Netflix earnings due: Cheaper cars, cheaper content, more workout videos, as ‘earnings recession’ seems likely

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  • Feinstein seeks Judiciary replacement after 2 House Democrats call for her to step down

    Feinstein seeks Judiciary replacement after 2 House Democrats call for her to step down

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    California Rep. Ro Khanna on Wednesday became the first Democratic lawmaker to openly call on Sen. Dianne Feinstein to step down amid concerns about her health, saying the longtime senator can no longer fulfill her duties.

    Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., later seconded Khanna’s call, and Feinstein issued a statement saying she has asked for another Democrat to temporarily replace her on the critical Senate Judiciary Committee.

    Feinstein,…

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  • Dow advances, Nasdaq trims losses, as traders eye looming inflation data and earnings

    Dow advances, Nasdaq trims losses, as traders eye looming inflation data and earnings

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    U.S. stock indexes traded mostly higher on Tuesday as investors cautiously looked ahead to March’s inflation data due Wednesday that could determine the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move, as well as to the start of the corporate earnings reporting season on Friday.

    How are stock indexes trading
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -0.00%

      rose 14 point, or 0.4%, to 4,123

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.29%

      added 176 points, or 0.5%, to 33,763

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -0.43%

      dropped 3 points, or less than 0.1%, to 12,081

    On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 101 points, or 0.3%, to 33,587, the S&P 500 increased 4 points, or 0.1%, to 4,109, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4 points, or 0.03%, to 12,084.

    What’s driving markets

    Wall Street’s main stock indexes mostly advanced Tuesday afternoon, as investors awaited the release of March’s consumer price index and the start of the first-quarter earnings season, with the banking sector slated to report numbers later this week.

    The S&P 500 index sits less than 0.5% off its best level since mid-February as investors have become more relaxed about prospects for the U.S. economy and more accepting of the path of Federal Reserve policy.

    The March employment report released last Friday showed a steady pace of job creation but with no great sign of accelerating wage inflation, which helped calm fears of a sharp economic slowdown and faster Fed interest rate hikes.

    See: Why March’s CPI report could upset the stock market, seal the deal on the next rate hike 

    But now attention turns to the March’s consumer price index report due Wednesday, which is seen as one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move.

    The March CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, is expected to show a 5.2% rise from a year earlier, slowing from a 6% year-over-year rise in the previous month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones.

    Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and fuel costs, is expected to rise 0.4% from a month ago, or 5.6% year over year. The increase in the core rate over the 12-month period dipped to 5.5% in February.

    Meanwhile, data from China on Tuesday showing consumer inflation dipped to its lowest level in more than a year in March, is also helping ease fears about global price pressures.

    Investors are wondering whether the Fed is satisfied with what it has done to fight inflation, and whether the central bank has done too much that it would drag the U.S. economy into a recession, according to Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

    “Tomorrow’s data point will only help us answer that first question,” Hopper said. Meanwhile, “while CPI is important, it’s just one data point. Hopefully it will confirm what we’ve seen with other data points that there’s significant progress in fighting inflation, and hopefully that’s enough to satisfy the Fed,” Hooper said in a call.

    Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, expects the decline in inflation in 2023 will likely be “incomplete with inflation remaining above central bank targets,” complicating its policy decisions.

    “Global inflation is moderating, but so far this deceleration has been largely driven by last year’s energy price spike unwind. Core inflation remains uncomfortably high and, in some economies, continues to rise,” Shah said in emailed comments on Tuesday.

    “Central banks have made less progress towards disinflation than they had hoped. Inflation is likely to remain sticky and will still sit above central bank targets at year-end,” Shah said.

    See: High inflation and interest rates to hobble U.S. and global economies for several years, IMF says

    The U.S. and global economies are likely to struggle to grow over the next few years as countries fight to reduce high inflation and cope with rising interest rates, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, the IMF said recent stress in the banking sector could reduce the ability of U.S. banks to lend over the next year, and materially lower U.S. economic growth.

    The IMF estimated that lending capacity in the U.S. could fall by almost 1% in the coming year. That would reduce U.S. real gross domestic product by 44 basis points over that time frame, all else being equal, the IMF said. 

    See: Why a long, shallow recession is more likely than ‘deep and long credit crunch contraction,’ says Mizuho

    Then, on Friday, the first-quarter corporate earnings season kicks into gear with the’ financial sector in the vanguard.

    It’s particularly important to pay attention to earnings calls and guidance provided by companies’ management, noted Hooper. “That to me is where we’re likely to get the best insights or at least the most robust insights into current credit conditions, to understand what could happen to the economy,” Hooper said.

    Philadelphia Fed President Harker will be speaking at 6:30 p.m. and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is due to speak at 7:30 p.m. Both times Eastern.

    Companies in focus

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article

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  • High inflation and interest rates to hobble U.S. and global economies for several years, IMF says

    High inflation and interest rates to hobble U.S. and global economies for several years, IMF says

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    The U.S. and global economies are likely to struggle to grow over the next few years as countries fight to reduce high inflation and cope with rising interest rates, the IMF said Tuesday.

    The latest projections paint a gloomy picture of the challenges facing the world. Chief among them is high inflation, a problem the IMF said has proven stickier than expected compared to “even a few months ago.”

    Price increases in goods and services other than food and gasoline are still high, the IMF said, and a tight labor market could keep upward pressure on wages.

    Inflation globally is likely to average about 7% in 2023, up almost 1/2 point from the IMF estimate just three months ago.

    The fund said inflation probably won’t return to the low levels that prevailed around the world until “2025 in most cases.” In the U.S., for example, inflation rose less than 2% a year in the decade before the pandemic.

    Stubbornly high inflation, in turn, is likely to force the U.S. and other countries to keep interest rates high for some time.

    “This may call for monetary policy to tighten further or to stay tighter
    for longer than currently anticipated,” IMF director of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

    Yet rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs also risk destabilizing financial institutions as witnessed by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the U.S. and the emergency rescue of Switzerland-based Credit Suisse.

    Recent banking instability reminds us,” Gourinchas said, “that the situation remains fragile.”

    “Once again, the financial system may well be tested even more,” he added. “Nervous investors often look for the next weakest link, as they did with Crédit Suisse.”


    IMF

    Threats to banks could add to the stress on the economy by spurring them to lend less to businesses and consumers. Lending is critical for economic growth.

    “We are therefore entering a tricky phase during which economic growth remains
    lackluster by historical standards, financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet
    decisively turned the corner,” Gourinchas said.

    The U.S. economy is forecast to slow from 2.1% growth in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. Notably, the IMF does not predict a U.S. recession.

    By contrast, the Federal Reserve predicts U.S. growth will slow to just 0.4% in 2023 and then rebound to a 1.2% annual pace in 2024.

    Most countries in Europe are also expected to keep growing aside from the U.K. and Germany, whose economies have been harder hit by high energy prices.

    The world economy is forecast to expand 2.8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, a shade lower compared to the IMF’s forecast in at the start of the year.

    Looking out to 2028, global growth is forecast at 3%, the weakest five-year outlook since the IMF began publishing them 33 years ago.

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  • ‘An evil act of targeted violence’: Shooting in downtown Louisville bank leaves 5 dead, 9 wounded

    ‘An evil act of targeted violence’: Shooting in downtown Louisville bank leaves 5 dead, 9 wounded

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    LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A Louisville bank employee armed with a rifle opened fire at his workplace Monday morning, killing four people — including a close friend of Kentucky’s governor — while livestreaming the attack on Instagram, authorities said.

    Police arrived as shots were still being fired inside Old National Bank and killed the shooter in an exchange of gunfire, Louisville Metro Police Department Chief Jacquelyn Gwinn-Villaroel said. The city’s mayor, Craig Greenberg, called the attack “an evil act of targeted violence.”

    The shooting, the 15th mass killing in the country this year, comes just two weeks after a former student killed three children and three adults at a Christian elementary school in Nashville, Tennessee, about 160 miles to the south. That state’s governor and his wife also had friends killed in that shooting.

    In Louisville, the chief identified the shooter as 25-year-old Connor Sturgeon, who she said was livestreaming during the attack.

    “That’s tragic to know that that incident was out there and captured,” she said.

    Meta
    META,
    -0.62%
    ,
    the company that owns Facebook and Instagram, said in a statement that it had “quickly removed the livestream of this tragic incident this morning.”

    Social company companies have imposed tougher rules over the past few years to prohibit violent and extremist content. They have set up systems to remove posts and streams that violate those restrictions, but shocking material like the Louisville shooting continues to slip through the cracks, prompting lawmakers and other critics to lash out at the technology industry for slipshod safeguards and moderation policies.

    Nine people, including two police officers, were treated for injuries from the Louisville shooting, University of Louisville Hospital spokeswoman Heather Fountaine said in an email. One of the officers, 26-year-old Nickolas Wilt, graduated from the police academy on March 31. He was in critical condition after being shot in the head and having surgery, the police chief said. At least three patients had been discharged.

    Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said he lost one of his closest friends in the shooting — Tommy Elliott — in the building not far from the minor league ballpark Louisville Slugger Field and Waterfront Park.

    “Tommy Elliott helped me build my law career, helped me become governor, gave me advice on being a good dad,” said Beshear, his voice shaking with emotion. “He’s one of the people I talked to most in the world, and very rarely were we talking about my job. He was an incredible friend.”

    Also killed in the shooting were Josh Barrick, Jim Tutt and Juliana Farmer, police said.

    “These are irreplaceable, amazing individuals that a terrible act of violence tore from all of us,” the governor said.

    It was the second time that Beshear was personally touched by a mass tragedy since becoming governor.

    In late 2021, one of the towns devastated by tornadoes that tore through Kentucky was Dawson Springs, the hometown of Beshear’s father, former two-term Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. Andy Beshear frequently visited Dawson Springs as a boy and has talked emotionally about his father’s hometown.

    Beshear spoke as the investigation in Louisville continued and police searched for a motive. Crime scene investigators could be seen marking and photographing numerous bullet holes in the windows near the bank’s front door.

    As part of the investigation, police descended on the neighborhood where the suspect lived, about 5 miles south of the downtown shooting. The street was blocked as federal and local officers talked to residents. One home was cordoned off with caution tape. Kami Cooper, who lives in the neighborhood, said she didn’t recall ever meeting the suspect but said it’s an unnerving feeling to have lived on the same street as someone who could do such a thing.

    “I’m almost speechless. You see it on the news but not at home,” Cooper said. “It’s unbelievable, it could happen here, somebody on my street.”

    A man who fled the building during the shooting told WHAS-TV that the shooter opened fire with a long rifle in a conference room in the back of the building’s first floor.

    “Whoever was next to me got shot — blood is on me from it,” he told the news station, pointing to his shirt. He said he fled to a break room and shut the door.

    Deputy Police Chief Paul Humphrey said the actions of responding police officers undoubtedly saved lives.

    “This is a tragic event,” he said. “But it was the heroic response of officers that made sure that no more people were more seriously injured than what happened.”

    Just a few hours later and blocks away, an unrelated shooting killed one man and wounded a woman outside a community college, police said.

    The 15 mass shootings this year are the most during the first 100 days of a calendar year since 2009, when 16 had occurred by April 10, according to a mass killings database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.

    Going back to 2006, the first year for which data has been compiled, the years with the most mass killings were 2019 and 2022, with 45 and 42 mass killings recorded during the entire calendar year. The pace in 2009 slowed later in the year, with 32 mass killings recorded that year.

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  • Damn Hard Road

    Damn Hard Road

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    Damn Hard Road. I've had worse withdrawals, but God damn getting sober has taken away all will to live. I feel like in a new and different way that's somehow al

    Damn Hard Road. I've had worse withdrawals, but God damn getting sober has taken away all will to live. I feel like in a new and different way that's somehow al

    I’ve had worse withdrawals, but God damn getting sober has taken away all will to live. I feel like **** in a new and different way that’s somehow almost worse. It’s almost like drastically altering your brain chemistry will effect your emotions or something.

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  • Dow futures flip higher after March jobs report in thin Good Friday trading

    Dow futures flip higher after March jobs report in thin Good Friday trading

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    U.S. stock-index futures turned higher in a holiday-shortened session after a solid March jobs report, though investors won’t fully digest the data until next week with cash trading in equities closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

    Trading in stock-index futures closed at 9:15 a.m. Eastern. Stock-index futures resume trading at their regular time, 6 p.m., on Sunday, as U.S. markets return to normal trading hours Monday.

    What stock-index futures are doing

    With…

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  • Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

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    The numbers: The U.S. added a robust 236,000 new jobs in March, defying the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a big slowdown in hiring as the central bank struggles to tame inflation. The consensus economist forecast called for a nonfarm-payrolls expansion of 238,000.

    The solid increase in employment last month followed a revised 326,000 gain in February and a gain of 472,000 in January.

    While the increase in hiring was the smallest monthly rise in more than two years, the number of jobs created last month was much greater than is typical.

    The U.S. economy has shown recent signs of stress.

    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6% as more people searched for and found work. That’s another sign of labor-market vigor.

    There was some good news in the report for the Fed, though.

    Wage growth continued to moderate closer to level the Fed would prefer. Hourly wages increased a mild 0.3% last month, the government said Friday.

    The increase in pay over the past year also slowed again to a nearly two-year low of 4.2% from 4.6% in February.

    What’s more, the share of people working or looking for work rose a tick to 62.6%. That’s the highest labor-force participation rate since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic’s onset.

    When more people look for work, companies don’t have to compete as hard for workers via higher pay.

    Emerging evidence of slack in a muscular U.S. labor market could encourage the Fed to take a breather after a rapid series of interest-rate increases.

    Still, the U.S. has added a whopping 1 million–plus new jobs in the first three months of the year. The labor market is not cooling off as much as the Fed would like.

    The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Stock-index futures rallied after the report, though the stock market itself is officially closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

    See: Why Good Friday complicates how stock-market traders will digest March jobs report

    Key details: About one-third of the new jobs created last month — 72,000 — were at service-sector companies such as bars and restaurants whose employment still has not returned to prepandemic levels.

    Americans are going out to eat a lot and spending relatively more on services than on goods.

    Government employment increased by 47,000. Hiring also rose at professional businesses and in healthcare. Retailers cut 15,000 jobs.

    Employment fell slightly in manufacturing and construction, or goods-producing industries, which are under more pressure from rising interest rates.

    The strong labor market has benefited all groups, but especially Black Americans. The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Big picture: The ongoing tightness in the labor market could inflame inflation and even push the Fed to raise interest rates more than currently forecast to try to get prices under control.

    Higher borrowing costs reduce inflation by slowing the economy, but most Fed rate-hike cycles since World War II have been followed by recession.

    On the flip side, the U.S. economy is starting to show more signs of deterioration due to the series of rapid Fed interest-rate increases since last year.

    Manufacturers have cut production and are arguably already in recession and the much larger service side of the economy is under more stress lately.

    If these trends continue the economy — and inflation — are bound to slow.

    The U.S. is still growing for now, however, and the labor market remains an oasis of strength.

    Low unemployment and rising wages have allowed Americans to keep spending. And so far they’ve keep the economy out of a widely predicted recession.

    Looking ahead: “The U.S. labor market is losing some momentum, but remains far too vibrant for the Fed to pause [its rate-hike campaign] in May,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets

    “Although job growth is gradually slowing, it remains too strong for the Federal Reserve,” said Sal Guatieri of PNC Financial Services.

    See: Traders see little chance interest rates will end up where Fed thinks in 2023

    Market reaction:  Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.19%

    rose 64 points, or 0.2%, to 33,723. S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.24%

    gained 9.75 points, or 0.2%, to 4,141.75. Stock trading resumes again on Monday.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.404%

    jumped to 3.36%.

    MarketWatch personal finance: U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March. Is this your last chance to jump ship?

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