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  • Treasury yields near highest levels in more than a decade after hawkish Fed projections

    Treasury yields near highest levels in more than a decade after hawkish Fed projections

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    Treasury yields tested their highest levels in more than a dozen years on Thursday as investors continued to absorb the Federal Reserve’s message of higher-for-longer interest rates.

    What’s happening

    What’s driving markets

    Treasury yields continued to climb on Thursday as investors continued to absorb the Federal Reserve’s projections, delivered Wednesday, that suggested another interest-rate increase this year and that borrowing costs were likely to be cut in 2024 by less than previously thought.

    Markets…

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  • U.K. inflation surprisingly slips, making Bank of England decision a close call

    U.K. inflation surprisingly slips, making Bank of England decision a close call

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    Inflation in the U.K. surprisingly eased in August against expectations it would accelerate, a welcome showing for central bankers just a day ahead of an interest-rate decision.

    The U.K. consumer price index fell a touch to 6.7% year-over-year in August from 6.8%, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

    CPI was expected by economists…

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  • Putnam Investments LLC Sells 2,879 Shares of Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:A)

    Putnam Investments LLC Sells 2,879 Shares of Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:A)

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    Putnam Investments LLC cut its stake in shares of Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AFree Report) by 10.7% in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 24,106 shares of the medical research company’s stock after selling 2,879 shares during the period. Putnam Investments LLC’s holdings in Agilent Technologies were worth $3,335,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

    Several other institutional investors also recently modified their holdings of the stock. Synovus Financial Corp increased its holdings in Agilent Technologies by 2.3% in the first quarter. Synovus Financial Corp now owns 6,751 shares of the medical research company’s stock valued at $895,000 after purchasing an additional 153 shares during the period. Blair William & Co. IL boosted its position in Agilent Technologies by 7.3% during the first quarter. Blair William & Co. IL now owns 28,606 shares of the medical research company’s stock valued at $3,785,000 after acquiring an additional 1,957 shares during the last quarter. Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC boosted its position in Agilent Technologies by 52.1% during the first quarter. Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC now owns 2,334 shares of the medical research company’s stock valued at $309,000 after acquiring an additional 799 shares during the last quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its position in shares of Agilent Technologies by 1.1% during the 1st quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 24,531,170 shares of the medical research company’s stock worth $3,246,209,000 after purchasing an additional 261,435 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Zions Bancorporation N.A. boosted its position in shares of Agilent Technologies by 10.8% during the 1st quarter. Zions Bancorporation N.A. now owns 2,880 shares of the medical research company’s stock worth $381,000 after purchasing an additional 281 shares in the last quarter.

    Agilent Technologies Trading Up 0.9 %

    Shares of A opened at $115.91 on Monday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49, a quick ratio of 1.68 and a current ratio of 2.29. Agilent Technologies, Inc. has a fifty-two week low of $109.00 and a fifty-two week high of $160.26. The firm has a 50 day moving average price of $121.61 and a 200-day moving average price of $126.47. The firm has a market cap of $33.91 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.34, a PEG ratio of 2.09 and a beta of 1.03.

    Agilent Technologies (NYSE:AGet Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, August 15th. The medical research company reported $1.43 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.36 by $0.07. The business had revenue of $1.67 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.66 billion. Agilent Technologies had a net margin of 16.20% and a return on equity of 29.86%. The company’s revenue was down 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $1.34 earnings per share. As a group, equities research analysts forecast that Agilent Technologies, Inc. will post 5.42 earnings per share for the current year.

    Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

    A number of research firms have recently issued reports on A. 888 reissued a “maintains” rating on shares of Agilent Technologies in a research report on Wednesday, May 24th. Jefferies Financial Group dropped their target price on Agilent Technologies from $150.00 to $146.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, August 16th. SVB Securities lowered their target price on shares of Agilent Technologies from $170.00 to $145.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, May 24th. Stifel Nicolaus decreased their price target on Agilent Technologies from $153.00 to $135.00 and set a “hold” rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, May 24th. Finally, Credit Suisse Group reduced their price objective on Agilent Technologies from $160.00 to $150.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, August 16th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, three have given a hold rating and twelve have assigned a buy rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $148.12.

    View Our Latest Stock Analysis on A

    Insiders Place Their Bets

    In other news, CEO Michael R. Mcmullen sold 944 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, July 27th. The stock was sold at an average price of $130.00, for a total transaction of $122,720.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer now owns 260,869 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $33,912,970. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. In other news, CEO Michael R. Mcmullen sold 944 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, July 27th. The stock was sold at an average price of $130.00, for a total transaction of $122,720.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer now owns 260,869 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $33,912,970. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Also, VP Rodney Gonsalves sold 3,500 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, August 23rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $118.78, for a total value of $415,730.00. Following the transaction, the vice president now owns 24,219 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,876,732.82. The disclosure for this sale can be found here.

    Agilent Technologies Profile

    (Free Report)

    Agilent Technologies, Inc provides application focused solutions to the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets worldwide. The Life Sciences and Applied Markets segment offers liquid chromatography systems and components; liquid chromatography mass spectrometry systems; gas chromatography systems and components; gas chromatography mass spectrometry systems; inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry instruments; atomic absorption instruments; microwave plasma-atomic emission spectrometry instruments; inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry instruments; raman spectroscopy; cell analysis plate based assays; flow cytometer; real-time cell analyzer; cell imaging systems; microplate reader; laboratory software; information management and analytics; laboratory automation and robotic systems; dissolution testing; vacuum pumps, and measurement technologies.

    Featured Articles

    Institutional Ownership by Quarter for Agilent Technologies (NYSE:A)

    Receive News & Ratings for Agilent Technologies Daily – Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts’ ratings for Agilent Technologies and related companies with MarketBeat.com’s FREE daily email newsletter.

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  • Republican Texas AG Ken Paxton is acquitted of all 16 corruption charges at impeachment trial

    Republican Texas AG Ken Paxton is acquitted of all 16 corruption charges at impeachment trial

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    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was acquitted Saturday of all charges at a historic impeachment trial that divided Republicans over whether to remove a powerful defender of former President Donald Trump after years of scandal and criminal charges.

    The verdict reaffirmed Paxton’s durability in America’s biggest red state and is a broader victory for Texas’ hard right after an extraordinary trial that put on display fractures within the GOP nationally heading into the 2024 elections. In the end, Paxton was fully cleared by Senate Republicans, who serve alongside his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton.

    Angela Paxton was not allowed to vote. But she attended all two weeks of the trial, including the reading of the verdict, when all but two of her fellow 18 Republican senators consistently voted to acquit her husband on 16 impeachment articles that accused him of misconduct, bribery and corruption. Ken Paxton, who was absent for most of the proceedings, did not attend the verdict.

    It clears the way for Paxton to reclaim his role as Texas’ top lawyer, more than three months after his stunning impeachment in the Texas House forced him to temporarily step aside.

    The outcome far from ends Paxton’s troubles. He still faces trial on felony securities fraud charges, remains under a separate FBI investigation and is in jeopardy of losing his ability to practice law in Texas because of his baseless attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

    The jury of 30 senators spent about eight hours deliberating behind closed doors before emerging for the historic vote. A two-thirds majority is required to convict Paxton on any of the charges that accuse Paxton of bribery, corruption and unfitness for office.

    The trial has plunged Texas Republicans into unfamiliar waters as they confronted whether Paxton should be removed over allegations that he abused his office to protect a political donor who was under FBI investigation.

    For nearly a decade, Paxton has elevated his national profile by rushing his office into polarizing courtroom battles across the U.S., winning acclaim from Donald Trump and the GOP’s hard right.

    The case centered on accusations that Paxton misused his office to help one of his donors, Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who was indicted in June on charges of making false statements to banks. Paul has pleaded not guilty.

    Eight of Paxton’s former deputies reported him to the FBI in 2020, setting off a federal investigation that will continue regardless of the verdict. Federal prosecutors investigating Paxton took testimony in August before a grand jury in San Antonio , according to two people with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because of secrecy rules around the proceeding.

    One of the impeachment articles centered on an alleged extramarital affair Paxton had with Laura Olson, who worked for Paul. It allegeed that Paul’s hiring of Olson amounted to a bribe.

    Paxton faces an array of legal troubles beyond the impeachment. Besides the federal investigation for the same allegations that gave rise to his impeachment, he also faces a bar disciplinary proceeding over his effort to overturn the 2020 election and has yet to stand trial on state securities fraud charges dating to 2015. He pleaded not guilty in the state case, but his lawyers have said removal from office might open the door to a plea agreement.

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  • House Speaker McCarthy announces impeachment inquiry into President Biden

    House Speaker McCarthy announces impeachment inquiry into President Biden

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    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday announced an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, saying that House Republicans have in recent months uncovered credible allegations about his conduct.

    “Today I am directing our House committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden,” McCarthy told reporters on Capitol Hill. He said the move would give the panels “the full power to gather all the facts and answers for the American people.”

    Punchbowl News reported earlier that the California Republican was poised to tell House Republicans this week that launching an impeachment inquiry into Biden is the “logical next step” in the GOP’s probes of the president and his son Hunter.

    House Republicans are probing the business dealings of Hunter Biden but so far have not produced evidence linking him to the president.

    Ian Sams, a White House spokesman, said in a message on X that Republicans “have turned up no evidence of wrongdoing” by President Biden and noted that McCarthy had previously called for a House vote before opening an inquiry.

    “Extreme politics at its worst,” wrote Sams.  

    In July, McCarthy said that GOP probes of the Bidens were “rising to the level of impeachment inquiry.”

    With Congress staring down a Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a partial shutdown, McCarthy has been feeling some heat from his right flank. Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican who is critical of McCarthy, was planning to deliver a speech Tuesday intended to lay groundwork for a potential move to oust him as speaker, according to the New York Times.

    McCarthy’s announcement comes as the 2024 White House campaign is heating up. Speaking on MSNBC, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida Democrat, called House Republicans an arm of former President Donald Trump’s 2024 election campaign.

    “They are succumbing to the pressure from Donald Trump and from their right-wing MAGA base,” she said.

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  • Morocco earthquake kills at least 600 people

    Morocco earthquake kills at least 600 people

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    RABAT, Morocco (AP) — A rare, powerful earthquake struck Morocco late Friday night, killing hundreds of people and damaging buildings from villages in the Atlas Mountains to the historic city of Marrakech.

    Morocco’s Interior Ministry said Saturday morning that at least 632 people had died, mostly in Marrakech and five provinces near the quake’s epicenter. Another 329 people were injured. Casualty figures were expected to rise more as the search continues and as rescuers reach remote areas.

    Moroccan television showed scenes from the aftermath, as many stayed outside fearing aftershocks.

    Anxious families stood in streets or huddled on the pavement, some carrying children, blankets or other belongings.

    Emergency workers looked for survivors in the rubble of buildings, their reflective yellow vests illuminating the nighttime landscape. The quake ripped a gaping hole in a home, and a car was nearly buried by the chunks of a collapsed building.

    Baskets, buckets and clothing could be seen amid scattered stones in the remains of one building.

    Moroccan media reported that the 12th century Koutoubia Mosque in Marrakech, one of the city’s most famed landmarks, suffered damage, but the extent was not immediately clear. Its 69-meter (226-foot) minaret is known as the “roof of Marrakech.”

    Moroccans also posted videos showing damage to parts of the famous red walls that surround the old city in Marrakech, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

    The head of a town near the earthquake’s epicenter told Moroccan news site 2M that several homes in nearby towns had partly or totally collapsed, and electricity and roads were cut off in some places.

    Abderrahim Ait Daoud, head of the town of Talat N’Yaaqoub, said authorities are working to clear roads in Al Haouz Province to allow passage for ambulances and aid to populations affected, but said large distances between mountain villages mean it will take time to learn the extent of the damage.

    Local media reported that roads leading to the mountain region around the epicenter were jammed with vehicles and blocked with collapsed rocks, slowing rescue efforts.

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  • U.S. stock futures slide as sour news on global economy hits sentiment

    U.S. stock futures slide as sour news on global economy hits sentiment

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    U.S. stock index futures slipped early Tuesday as rising bond yields defied dour economic news from China and Europe.

    How are stock-index futures trading

    • S&P 500 futures
      ES00,
      -0.19%

      dipped 20 points, or 0.4%, to 4502

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
      YM00,
      -0.07%

      fell 119 points, or 0.3%, to 34763

    • Nasdaq 100 futures
      NQ00,
      -0.38%

      eased 95 points, or 0.6%, to 15421

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rose 116 points, or 0.33%, to 34838, the S&P 500
    SPX
    increased 8 points, or 0.18%, to 4516, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    dropped 3 points, or 0.02%, to 14032. U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the Labor Day break.

    What’s driving markets

    U.S. traders returned from the Labor Day holiday with global markets in a generally risk-off mood after more disappointing news from the world’s second biggest economy.

    A Caixin survey showed China’s service sector expanded in August at its slowest pace in eight months, providing further evidence that the country’s post-pandemic recovery is faltering.

    Also, a eurozone survey showed output in the bloc contracting at its fastest pace in nearly three years.

    Asian and European bourses mostly turned lower, affecting U.S. equity index futures.

    “Sentiment has turned downbeat again on China as fresh brushstrokes are painted on the picture of its slowing economy,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

    “The data has overshadowed relief that the struggling property giant Country Garden
    2007,
    -0.98%

    has managed to make key interest payments on its debt, reducing, for now, concerns about contagion in the financial sector. China appears to be taking one step forward, but two steps back, as optimism one day turns to pessimism the next,” Streeter added.

    Concerns about economic growth might be expected to support sovereign debt markets, but here too the tone was grim, with Treasury yields rising amid concerns recent increases in oil prices
    CL.1,
    -0.35%

    –though down a bit on Tuesday — may revive inflationary pressures.

    “Oil prices have surged to reach new highs in 2023, a development poised to have significant repercussions on the upcoming August consumer price index reports…[which] presents a fresh challenge for central banks as they continue their diligent efforts to bring inflation levels back in line with their desired targets,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

    “This growing concern has notably impacted sovereign bonds, triggering a sell-off primarily driven by heightened inflation expectations. And, of course, stocks do not like the cut of that new inflation jib,” Innes added.

    U.S. economic updates set for release on Tuesday include July factory orders, due at 10 a.m. Eastern.

    Companies in focus

    Blackstone Inc.
    BX,
    -1.77%

    rose 4% in premarket trade, while shares of Airbnb Inc.
    ABNB,
    +0.87%

    were up 5% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that both names would gain inclusion in the S&P 500 index. The changes take effect before the start of trading Sept. 18.

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  • Unemployment surge to 3.8% may be a summer-jobs mirage

    Unemployment surge to 3.8% may be a summer-jobs mirage

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    The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to an 18-month high of 3.8% in August. Does that mean the economy is tottering and layoffs are rising from near record lows? Ah, no.

    The big increase in the jobless rate — from 3.5% in July — stemmed almost entirely from more people in the labor force.

    People generally look for a job when they think it’s easy to find one and the pay is good. That’s a sign of a robust labor market, not a weakening one.

    An estimated 736,000 people entered the labor force last month, but only about one-third found a job.

    The other half million didn’t find a job right away, so they would be considered unemployed. The government includes anyone without a job who is actively searching for work in the unemployment rate.

    Ergo, that’s why the jobless rate jumped three-tenths to 3.8%.

    Digging a little deeper, the summer-jobs market for young people may have played an outsized role.

    About 45% of the people who reportedly entered the labor force in August were between the ages of between 16 and 24 years old, noted Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights.

    As it turns out, a similar 724,000 spike in the size of the labor force took place in August 2022. And once again it was driven by an increase in young jobseekers.

    What’s going on? Young people working summer jobs may have simply stayed on a bit longer than the government’s employment survey could account for.

    “This looks like an anomaly associated with the summer jobs market,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Santander Capital Markets.

    What happened after August 2022? The size of the labor force fell or moved sideways for the next three months. The unemployment rate also declined.

    If the same scenario plays out again this fall and the labor force shrinks, the unemployment rate could drop back down again in the next few months.

    There also could be another, less positive, explanation for the large increase in the number of people seeking work in August. Maybe they need the spending money to keep their current standard of living in light of high inflation and the depletion of their Covid-era savings.

    “This could also be a possible sign of stress, with households having to come back to the labor market to pay bills and maintain current spending habits,” said senior economist Sam Bullard of Wells Fargo.

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  • U.S. stock futures edge higher ahead of data that could show hiring slowdown

    U.S. stock futures edge higher ahead of data that could show hiring slowdown

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    U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Friday, ahead of data that could show a slowing pace of hiring, which would reassure investors that the Federal Reserve won’t take interest rates much higher.

    What’s happening

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
      YM00,
      +0.39%

      rose 78 points, or 0.2%, to 34869.

    • S&P 500 futures
      ES00,
      +0.34%

      gained 9 points, or 0.2%, to 4525.

    • Nasdaq 100 futures
      NQ00,
      +0.17%

      increased 12 points, or 0.1%, to 15551.

    On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    fell 168 points, or 0.48%, to 34722, the S&P 500
    SPX
    declined 7 points, or 0.16%, to 4508, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    gained 16 points, or 0.11%, to 14035.

    What’s driving

    Ahead of Friday’s barrage of heavy-hitting economic data, U.S. stocks saw modest pressure, as inflation data was largely benign but jobless claims dented an emerging picture of an economic slowdown. Dollar General’s
    DG,
    -12.15%

    profit warning, however, pointed to a consumer under pressure.

    Friday will see the release of nonfarm payrolls data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with expectations that 170,000 jobs were created in August. That would be the weakest showing since Dec. 2020, a month that saw 268,000 jobs lost.

    “There have been indicators that the U.S. jobs market is finally starting to lose some of its tightness, and if the NFP print confirms this trend, it will be one less thing for the FOMC to worry about given labor market resilience has long been a source of inflationary pressure,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

    There’s also the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, as well as monthly auto sales, that will get released. Thursday’s after hours releases saw mixed responses, with Dell Technologies
    DELL,
    +0.99%

    stock rallying but Broadcom shares
    AVGO,
    +3.43%

    wilting after results.

    In China, August Caixin manufacturing PMI came in above expectations, rising to 51, a level that indicates improving conditions, as the country also lowered down-payment requirements on homes. The Hong Kong market was shut over storm-related concerns.

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  • Super-rare super blue moon tonight: What time will it appear? 

    Super-rare super blue moon tonight: What time will it appear? 

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    Talk about something happening once in a blue moon — Wednesday night’s lunar event won’t be repeated for another 14 years.

    The Aug. 30 moon will be the biggest and brightest full moon of the entire year, a so-called super blue moon. Tonight’s moon is an especially rare one for several reasons: 

    • It’s a full moon, meaning it’s as close as we get to seeing the sun illuminate the entire side of the moon. This happens once or sometimes twice a month.

    • It’s also a blue moon, which means two different things. First, it’s a monthly blue moon, or the second full moon of the month, which is how a blue moon is commonly defined. But it’s also a seasonal blue moon, as NASA notes, meaning it’s the third full moon in an astronomical season that has four full moons. But despite the colorful name, the moon itself will not appear blue.

    • Finally, this also a supermoon, meaning the moon appears larger — about 14% larger, according to NASA — and brighter than usual, even to the naked eye. This is because its orbit is at its closest point to the Earth — a moment known as its perigee, when the moon is just 226,000 miles from us — at the same time that the moon is full.

    Supermoons are slightly more common than blue moons, NASA says. While about 25% of all full moons are supermoons, just 3% of full moons are blue moons. That’s why the phrase “once in a blue moon” is used to describe a rare event. And the length of time between super blue moons is even more irregular. On average it’s 10 years, according to NASA, but it sometimes stretches as long as 20 years. After tonight, we won’t see another until we get a pair of super blue moons in January and March 2037.

    Tonight’s super blue moon, NASA adds, also coincides with the Hindu Raksha Bandhan festival, also known as Rakhi or Rakhi Purnima, which celebrates the bond between brothers and sisters. And it falls near the middle of the month for many lunisolar and lunar calendars, such as the Chinese, Islamic and Hebrew calendars, which carries some spiritual significance. It comes during Elul in the Hebrew calendar, for example, which is a time of preparation for the High Holy Days of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.

    Related: Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller draws a link between moon landing and remote work

    Now that you know what the super blue moon is, how can you catch it? 

    The super blue moon will be officially full at 9:36 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Aug. 30. That is when the moon will be 180 degrees from the sun, or completely opposite the sun in the sky over the Earth, Space.com explains.

    The super blue moon will set on Thursday morning just before the sun rises at around 6:46 a.m. Eastern. 

    If you want to catch the moon looking especially huge, it’s recommended that you catch the moon either rising in the east in the evening or setting in the west in the early morning. This is because when the moon is nearest to the horizon, a “moon illusion” makes it seem bigger. Photographers can exaggerate this illusion by taking pictures of the moon low on the horizon, using a long lens and having buildings, mountains or trees in the frame, NASA says. If you’re angling for that perfect shot, you can find the rising and setting times for your area using the U.S. Navy’s moonrise calendar

    If the sky is overcast in your area or buildings or other obstacles block your view, you can catch the action online instead. The Virtual Telescope Project will be providing a free livestream of the super blue moon rising over Rome beginning at 11:30 p.m. Eastern on Aug. 30.

    In other lunar news, India became the fourth country to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon last week. You can watch the Indian rover explore the moon’s south pole here.

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  • U.S. dollar defies China, Russia and Wall Street skeptics as 2023 rebound continues

    U.S. dollar defies China, Russia and Wall Street skeptics as 2023 rebound continues

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    The U.S. dollar is proving its haters wrong.

    Not only is the buck defying the expectations of Wall Street strategists who had anticipated that it would weaken this year, it’s also proving once again that talk of de-dollarization has been over-hyped.

    In financial markets, a gauge of the dollar’s value against its biggest rivals is nearing its highest level in six months. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    a gauge of the dollar’s strength against the euro
    EURUSD,
    -0.01%

    and other major currencies like the Japanese yen
    USDJPY,
    -0.09%

    and British pound
    GBPUSD,
    +0.21%
    ,
    traded at its highest level since early June on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped catapult it higher by talking up the possibility of more interest-rate hikes.

    The index was adding to those gains on Monday, trading 0.1% higher at 104.13, according to FactSet data. A break above 104.70 would put it at its highest intraday level since March 16. The index is up 0.5% since the start of the year, having erased earlier year-to-date losses over the past six weeks.

    Earlier this year, dollar weakness occurred against the backdrop of U.S. rivals like China and Russia making strides in their efforts to wean themselves off the buck.

    But despite their efforts, data released last week by SWIFT, the nexus of international interbank financial transactions, showed that the dollar has never been more popular as a means of settling international trade and transactions.

    SWIFT’s data showed that 46% of interbank payments conducted on the platform in July involved the U.S. dollar, a record high. The data also showed that the Chinese yuan’s share of international payments had ticked higher while the euro’s declined.

    As if to underscore this point, the data from SWIFT arrived late last week just as a summit hosted by the BRICS nations in Johannesburg, South Africa, was breaking up.

    Rather than being a watershed event for opponents of the U.S. dollar, as some had feared, statements from the group’s members revealed internal disagreement on the subject of a BRICS currency intended to offer an alternative to the greenback.

    What’s more, while the economic alliance announced plans to admit a spate of new member nations in its first expansion in 13 years, one notable holdout seemed to spoil the party.

    Indonesian President Joko Widodo opted to keep his country, one of the world’s most populous, with a fast-expanding economy, out of the economic alliance, at least for now.

    To be sure, as MarketWatch reported back in April, talk of de-dollarization is hardly a new phenomenon, but it has received renewed attention as China, Russia and others have redoubled efforts to try and push for countries to conduct more trade in their own currencies as opposed to the dollar.

    But Russia and China aren’t alone in their disappointment at the dollar’s resilience.

    Read more: Opinion: China is nowhere near deflation, and global investors aren’t ready for what’s coming

    A compilation of 2023 year-ahead outlooks produced by Bloomberg News back in December showed investment houses in Europe and the U.S. widely expected the buck to weaken this year, with some reasoning that the two-decade high reached by the dollar index in late September likely marked its peak for the cycle.

    The ICE index traded as high as 114.78 on Sept. 28, its highest level since May 2002, according to FactSet data. The milestone marked the peak of a torrid rally that saw the buck emerge as one of the few havens from a punishing selloff in stocks and bonds that defined global markets in 2022. But the gauge has fallen 9.3% since then.

    Now, with real yields in the U.S. pushing higher and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinting at the possibility of more interest-rate hikes later this year, strategists say the conditions are ideal for the U.S. dollar to climb even higher.

    “Interest-rate differentials and relative economic strength are the foundation [of dollar strength],” Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist for John Hancock Investment Management, said during a phone interview with MarketWatch.

    China’s struggles to revive its flagging economy have helped bolster the dollar while pushing the Chinese yuan
    USDCNY,
    -0.01%

    toward its weakest level since late last year. The offshore yuan traded at 7.29 to the dollar on Monday, near its weakest level since November.

    Read this next: Opinion: The debt supercycle that hit the U.S. and Europe has now come for China

    A weakening eurozone economy has weighed on the euro and boosted the dollar. PMI survey data released earlier this month showed Europe’s services sector weakening alongside manufacturing. GDP data released by Eurostat, Europe’s official economic statistics agency, has been tepid compared to the U.S. The latest reading on second-quarter GDP put it at 0.3%.

    Right now, the dollar will be tough to beat given the twin tailwinds created by rising real interest rates and still-robust economic growth.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security note
    912828B253
    was trading north of 2.2% Friday, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. The 10-year TIPS yield hit its highest level since 2009 earlier this month when it broke north of 2%. The inflation-protected security is often cited as a proxy for U.S. “real” yields, which refers to the return bond investors receive after adjusting for inflation.

    On the growth side of the equation, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast estimated the rate of growth for the third quarter at 5.9% according to its latest reading dated Thursday. A year ago, even the most optimistic economists on Wall Street were expecting growth of about 2%, and top Fed officials had a median projection of 1.2% growth for 2023, according to projections released in September.

    “It’s hard to beat the dollar when it is a high yielder among safe havens in a risk-off environment,” Steve Englander, head of North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said in comments emailed to MarketWatch.

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  • U.S. stocks end higher after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, S&P 500 snaps 3-week losing streak

    U.S. stocks end higher after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, S&P 500 snaps 3-week losing streak

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    U.S. stocks ended higher Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned the central bank may need to raise interest rates even higher to temper a strong U.S. economy and quell inflation, while assuring investors that monetary policy would proceed cautiously.

    How stock indexes traded

    For the week, the Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq climbed 2.3%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked back-to-back weekly losses, while the S&P 500 and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite each…

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  • Donald Trump’s mug shot, the new face of American political scandal

    Donald Trump’s mug shot, the new face of American political scandal

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    Former President Donald Trump has been charged with a litany of crimes over the past several months, but his status as defendant-in-chief has now been immortalized by a mug shot. 

    For those who believe Trump broke the law by arranging hush-money payments to a porn star, stealing classified documents, instigating a riot and trying to steal the 2020 election, the photo serves as a symbol of his criminal behavior. To the people who see Trump as the victim of politically-motivated prosecutions, the image signals that the nation’s legal system has been compromised by partisanship. 

    Either way, Trump’s mug shot marks a new era for American political scandal.   

    Read more: Trump surrenders, is booked in Georgia election-interference case

    Of course, Trump joins a long list of American politicians who have found themselves facing prosecution.

    From the founding of the republic to the current day, politicians being accused of wrongdoing has been an American tradition. The scope of cases runs across the political spectrum and the charges have ranged from sex scandals to bribery.

    Trump’s summer of scandal began in New York, where Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged him with campaign-finance violations, claiming the former president made hush-money payments to a porn star and Playboy bunny to bury their stories of having had affairs with him. He was then hit with federal charges of illegally withholding classified documents at his Florida mansion after leaving office and for illegally working to disrupt the formal counting of the votes in Congress that confirmed his loss in the 2020 election.

    But it took until Trump’s fourth indictment on state charges in Georgia, alleging that he and 18 others conspired to illegally overturn the 2020 election in which he narrowly lost the state to Biden, for a mugshot to formally appear.

    Here’s a list of some recent, well-known politicians who have been arrested:

    Rod Blagojevich 

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    Blagojevich served as the Democratic governor of Illinois from 2003 until 2009 when he was arrested, impeached and eventually sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption.

    The case revolved around a “pay-for-play” scandal in which Blagojevich solicited a bribe in return for appointing someone to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama after he’d been elected president.

    Blagojevich was released in 2020 after Trump commuted his sentence.

    John Edwards

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    The former Democratic vice presidential and presidential candidate was indicted in 2011 on charges that he used campaign money to cover up an extramarital affair and to pay to support a child that was born as a result. Edwards wasn’t convicted but the revelation that he had an affair while his wife was dying of cancer ended his political career.

    Tom DeLay

    (Harris County Sheriff’s Office)

    The onetime Republican House majority leader was indicted in 2005 by a Texas grand jury on campaign-finance and money-laundering charges. He stepped down as House speaker and opted not to seek reelection the following year. He was eventually convicted and sentenced to three years in prison but had the case overturned on appeal.

    John Mitchell

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    The U.S. attorney general under President Richard Nixon served 19 months in prison for his role in helping plan and orchestrate the break-in of the Democratic Party’s national headquarters at the Watergate Hotel. The scandal would lead to Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

    Dennis Hastert

    (Lake County Sheriff’s Office)

    The Republican speaker of the House of Representatives from 1999 until 2007 was later sentenced to 15 months in prison for sexually abusing young boys while working as a high school teacher and coach in his home state of Illinois. At the time of his conviction in 2015, Hastert was the highest-ranking U.S. politician to ever be sentenced to prison time.

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  • Trump surrenders, is booked in Georgia election-interference case

    Trump surrenders, is booked in Georgia election-interference case

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    Former President Donald Trump turned himself in at Georgia’s Fulton County jail on Thursday evening, with this latest move in his numerous legal fights standing out in part because it’s expected to yield a mug shot.

    See: Donald Trump’s mug shot could become ‘the most famous in the world’

    Trump’s private plane landed in Atlanta around 7 p.m. Eastern, and a motorcade took him directly to the Fulton County jail in Atlanta. After about 20 minutes of processing inside the jail, the motorcade then took him back to his plane for his return to New Jersey.

    Trump made a brief statement before boarding his plane, calling his indictment a “travesty of justice.”

    Fulton County’s booking system recorded Trump as having “blonde or strawberry” hair, a height of 6-foot-3 and weighing 215 pounds.

    Former President Donald Trump poses for his booking photo at the Fulton County Jail on Thursday.


    Fulton County Sheriff’s Office via Getty Images

    Trump was quickly released on a $200,000 bond and will now wait until an arraignment next month to enter pleas in this election-interference case. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is seeking an Oct. 23 trial date for Trump and the other 18 defendants in the case, but Trump is opposing that start date.

    Earlier in the day, Trump replaced his lead counsel, Drew Findling, with veteran criminal attorney  Steven Sadow, who is known for defending a number of prominent rappers in high-profile criminal cases. The New York Times reported Trump used a commercial bail bondsman, Charles Shaw of Foster Bail Bonds, to post his bond, and paid him a $20,000 fee, or 10% of his bail amount.

    The former president was indicted last week by a grand jury in Fulton County over his efforts to overturn Georgia’s results in the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. He faces 13 criminal counts, including racketeering, filing false documents, conspiracy to commit forgery and solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer.

    Thursday’s proceedings in Atlanta mark the fourth time that the 45th president has surrendered this year following an indictment.

    Trump, the frontrunner in the undefined, also is dealing with a Manhattan case over hush-money payments, a Miami case over classified documents and a Washington, D.C., case over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, including his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    He has denied wrongdoing and argued all of the cases are politically motivated. Many Republican voters have agreed with his take and rallied around Trump in the past few months, leaving him with 55.4% support in primary polls, according to a RealClearPolitics moving average of surveys as of Thursday.

    See: Trump calls his four indictments ‘nonsense’ during Tucker Carlson interview airing opposite the GOP debate

    The Fulton County prosecutor’s case was spurred in part by a recording of a Jan. 2, 2021, phone call between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in which Trump said Raffensperger, a Republican, should “find 11,780 votes,” or enough to erase Biden’s edge in the state.

    In a post on his Truth Social platform Thursday afternoonu, Trump reiterated his assertion that the phone call was “perfect,” and he repeated his criticisms of Willis, describing her as a “Radical Left, Lowlife District Attorney.”

    Willis, a Democrat, has set a Friday deadline for defendants to turn themselves, and Trump associates Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows are among the high-profile individuals who have met that deadline.

    Now read: Trump would have to wait years if he were to be pardoned in Georgia case — with no president or governor able to deliver

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  • Trump calls his four indictments ‘nonsense’ during Tucker Carlson interview airing opposite the GOP debate

    Trump calls his four indictments ‘nonsense’ during Tucker Carlson interview airing opposite the GOP debate

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    ‘I got indicted four times, all trivia, all nonsense.’

    That was former President Donald Trump speaking to former Fox News host Tucker Carlson in a pre-taped interview that was posted just a few minutes before the Republican presidential debate kicked off Wednesday night. 

    The wide-ranging chat that ran roughly 45 minutes saw Trump and Carlson taking shots at Trump’s legal troubles, his GOP and Democratic rivals, cable news networks and more. They did not get into pocketbook issues like inflation, Social Security or student loan debt.

    Trump confirmed over the weekend that he was skipping the first GOP primary debate for the 2024 race because “the public knows who I am,” and he had little to gain from joining his rivals on stage.

    He said something similar during the Carlson interview. “We’re doing this interview, but we’ll get bigger ratings using this crazy forum that you’re using than probably the debate,” Trump mused. “I think cable [viewership] is down because it’s lost credibility.”

    It remains to be see what sort of ratings the Fox News debate will pull in from the live broadcast, from streams and from later viewings, of course. Just before 10 p.m. Eastern, the clip posted to Tucker Carlson’s feed on X.com was approaching 75 million views.

    Read more: Non-Trump Republican presidential candidates to try for ‘breakout moment’ in this week’s debate

    Trump had teased on his Truth Social platform ahead of the debate that “sparks will fly,” and the sitdown with Carlson at the former president’s private golf club in Bedminster, N.J. And Carlson’s wide-ranging interview topics were designed with soundbites in mind, such as asking Trump about Jeffrey Epstein, or whether another civil war is brewing in the U.S. — as opposed to many issues top of mind for voters, such as high inflation.

    Tucker Carlson speaks with former President Donald Trump during a pre-taped interview, which was posted to X at the same time as the first Republican presidential debate for the 2024 primary on Wednesday.


    “Tucker on X” via X

    Some highlights from the Trump & Tucker show:

    On why Trump skipped the Fox News debate:

    “Do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it’s going to be, and get harassed by people that shouldn’t even be running for president? Should I be doing that?” he asked, especially since he’s such a frontrunner in the polls, so far.

    “I just felt it would be more appropriate not to do the debate. I don’t think it’s right to do it if you’re leading by 50, 60, one poll I’m leading by 70 points,” he said.

    And he threw in a dig to Fox News, calling it “A network that isn’t particularly friendly to me.” 

    He also said the network made “a terrible move” in firing Carlson.

    On the state of the nation:

    “We have a country that is very fragile right now,” Trump said, arguing he’s a candidate for the left, the right and independents, alike.

    “You have great people in the Democrat party, you have great people that are Democrats. Most people in the country are fantastic,” he said, “and I’m representing everybody, I’m not just Republican or conservative, I represent everybody, I’m the president of everybody.”  

    And on his legal issues:

    “The four indictments, and maybe there will be more, I don’t know,” he said. But he said his poll numbers and fundraising keep going up after each indictment because, “I think the people in this country don’t get enough credit for how smart they are. They get it, they really get it … I got indicted four times, all trivia, all nonsense. Bullshit, it’s all bullshit.”

    And catch up to what his GOP rivals were getting into by following MarketWatch’s debate live blog here.

    Carlson ended the interview by asking Trump whether the country is headed for civil war or open conflict. Trump called Jan. 6 “an interesting day,” and said he didn’t know. “There’s a level of passion that I’ve never seen. There’s a level of hatred that I’ve never seen. And [that’s] probably a bad combination.”

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  • Trump says he will surrender Thursday on Georgia election-interference charges

    Trump says he will surrender Thursday on Georgia election-interference charges

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    Former President Donald Trump says he will surrender to authorities in Georgia on Thursday to face charges in the case accusing him of illegally scheming to overturn his 2020 election loss.

    “Can you believe it? I’ll be going to Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday to be ARRESTED,” Trump wrote on his social media network Monday night, hours after court papers said his bond was set at $200,000.

    The Fulton County Sheriff’s Office said in a news release Monday afternoon that when Trump surrenders there will be a “hard lockdown” of the area surrounding the main county jail.

    Trump, according to the papers, is also barred from intimidating co-defendants, witnesses or victims in the case — including on social media — according to the bond agreement signed by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, Trump’s defense attorneys and the judge. It explicitly includes “posts on social media or reposts of posts” made by others.

    Trump has repeatedly used social media to attack people involved in the criminal cases against him as he campaigns to reclaim the White House in 2024. He has been railing against Willis since before he was indicted, and singled out Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp — a Republican who rebuffed his efforts to overturn the election — by name in a social media post Monday morning.

    The agreement prohibits the former president from making any “direct or indirect threat of any nature” against witnesses or co-defendants, and from communicating in any way about the facts of the case with them, except through attorneys.

    The order sets Trump’s bond for the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations — or RICO — charge at $80,000, and adds $10,000 for each of the 12 other counts he is facing. Bond is the amount defendants must pay as a form of collateral to ensure they show up in court ahead of trial.

    Willis has set a deadline of noon Friday for Trump and his 18 co-defendants to turn themselves in to be booked. The prosecutor has proposed that arraignments for the defendants follow during the week of Sept. 5. She has said she wants to try the defendants collectively, and bring the case to trial in March of next year, which would put it in the heat of the presidential nominating season.

    In Fulton County, when defendants are not in custody, their lawyers and the district attorney’s office will often work out a bond amount before arraignment and the judge will sign off on it. The defendants will generally be booked at the Fulton County jail. During the booking process, they are typically photographed and fingerprinted and then they provide certain personal information. Since Trump’s bond has already been set, he will be released from custody once the booking process is complete.

    A Trump spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A phone message seeking comment was also left for an attorney for the former president.

    Trump was charged last week in the case alongside a slew of allies, who prosecutors say conspired to subvert the will of voters in a desperate bid to keep the Republican in the White House after he lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

    Trump has denied any wrongdoing, and he characterizes the case — and three others he is facing — as efforts to hurt his 2024 presidential campaign. He has regularly used his Truth Social platform to single out prosecutors and others involved in his cases, and to continue to spread falsehoods that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

    In a post on Monday, Trump called the Fulton County district attorney “crooked, incompetent, & highly partisan.” He also attacked Kemp, whom he has long targeted for the governor’s refusal to intervene after the 2020 election. Kemp has been outspoken in pushing back against Trump, writing in social media last week: “The 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen.”

    Bond was also set Monday for three lawyers who were indicted along with Trump. For each of them, the bond for the RICO charge was set at $20,000, with varying amounts for the other charges they face. John Eastman and Kenneth Chesebro each had a bond set at $100,000.

    Bail bondsman Scott Hall, who was accused of participating in a breach of election equipment in rural Coffee County, had his bond set at $10,000. Another defendant, Georgia-based attorney Ray Smith, has been assessed a $50,000 bond. Smith is charged with helping organize fake electors for Trump and trying to sway Georgia lawmakers with false statements alleging election fraud.

    Other defendants include former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows; Trump attorney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and a Trump administration Justice Department official, Jeffrey Clark, who aided the then-president’s efforts to undo his election loss in Georgia.

    The Georgia indictment comes just two weeks after the Justice Department special counsel charged Trump in a separate case in a vast conspiracy to overturn the election. Besides the two election-related cases, Trump faces a federal indictment accusing him of illegally hoarding classified documents as well as a New York state case charging him with falsifying business records.

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  • Stock-index futures gain ground after three-week losing streak

    Stock-index futures gain ground after three-week losing streak

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    U.S. stock futures moved higher early Monday, as Wall Street looks to snap a three-week losing streak.

    How are stock-index futures trading

    • S&P 500 futures
      ES00,
      +0.51%

      rose 15 points, or 0.3% to 4397

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
      YM00,
      +0.36%

      gained 79 points, or 0.2% to 34644

    • Nasdaq 100 futures
      NQ00,
      +0.70%

      rose 86 points, or 0.5% to 14830

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rose 26 points, or 0.07%, to 34501, the S&P 500
    SPX
    declined 1 points, or 0.01%, to 4370, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    dropped 26 points, or 0.2%, to 13291.

    What’s driving markets

    Futures are striving to find their footing as Wall Street comes off a three-week losing streak.

    “Global markets have recently experienced a series of stumbles due to concerns about China’s economy and higher sovereign bond yields. Last week the S&P 500 dropped 2.1 %, worryingly, with every sector ending in the red,” noted Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI asset management.

    Neither of those factors are providing much succor early Monday. A trimming of interest rates over the weekend by China’s central bank has underwhelmed the market, while the 10-year Treasury yield is up about 4 basis points to 4.29%, holding near 15-year highs.

    The rising borrowing costs have been a particular problems for some of the big technology stocks that tend to lead the market, according to Innes.

    “Last week, several prominent stocks within the S&P 500, such as
    GOOGL,
    -1.89%
    ,

    TSLA,
    -1.70%
    ,

    META,
    -0.65%
    ,

    AMZN,
    -0.57%
    ,

    MSFT,
    -0.13%
    ,

    AAPL,
    +0.28%
    ,
    and
    NVDA,
    -0.10%
    ,
    all underperformed compared to the broader market index. This dip in performance is attributed to the recent surge in interest rates…This upward rate movement has exerted downward pressure on longer-duration assets,” Innes added.

    With that in mind, the reception afforded Nvidia’s results, due on Wednesday, may shape market sentiment for a while. The chipmaker is among the stragglers of an earnings season that has generally beaten forecasts but failed to deliver additional bullish propulsion to the market.

    “This picture simply means that the fear of a further Fed tightening, prospects of higher interest rates, combined [with] the set of bad news from China simply didn’t let investors enjoy the better-than-expected earnings,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

    However, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, reckons the recent sell-off will be halted at or before Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell makes a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week.

    “Over our many conversations with institutional investors in the past week, the vast majority cite the rise in interest rates as the most concerning for equities,” Lee wrote in a note published over the weekend.

    And he thinks the Fed is worried by the surge in 10-year yields, too, because it represents a meaningful tightening of financial conditions for markets, companies and households.

    “I think the Fed likely says something dovish-ish [sic]. Why? Does Fed want to risk another ‘something breaking’ ala Feb 2023? While some look back at August 2022 when Fed Chair Powell’s statement was hawkish and marked the local top in 2022 (stocks fell -19% next 8 weeks), we think the context is the opposite.” Lee concluded

    Zoom video Communications
    ZM,
    +1.42%

    will report results after Monday’s closing bell. There are no top drawer U.S. economic data due Monday.

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  • Trump says he will skip Republican presidential primary debates

    Trump says he will skip Republican presidential primary debates

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    NEW YORK — Former President Donald Trump confirmed Sunday that he will be skipping Wednesday’s first Republican presidential primary debate — and others as well.

    “The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had,” Trump wrote on his social media site. “I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!” His spokesman did not immediately clarify whether he plans to boycott every primary debate or just those that have currently been scheduled.

    The former president and early GOP frontrunner had said for months that he saw little upside in joining his GOP rivals on stage when they gather for the first time in Milwaukee Wednesday, given his commanding lead in the race. And he had made clear to those he had spoken to in recent days that his opinion had not changed.

    Also read: Non-Trump Republican presidential candidates to try for ‘breakout moment’ in this week’s debate

    “Why would I allow people at 1 or 2% and 0% to be hitting me with questions all night?” he said in an interview in June with Fox News host Bret Baier, who will be serving as a moderator. Trump has also repeatedly criticized Fox, the host of the Aug. 23 primetime event, insisting it is a “hostile network” that he believes will not treat him fairly.

    Trump had been discussing a number of debate counterprogramming options, including sitting for an interview with ex-Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who has been hosting a show on the website formerly known as Twitter. Carlson was spotted at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club ahead of the announcement, according to a person familiar with the visit who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it. The New York Times reported Saturday the interview set to air Wednesday has already been taped.

    “We cannot confirm or deny — stay tuned,” said Trump spokesman Steven Cheung.

    The idea had been one of several alternatives Trump had floated in conversations in recent weeks. They included possibly showing up in Milwaukee at the last minute or attending but sitting in the audience and offering live commentary on his Truth Social site. He had also discussed potentially calling into different networks to draw viewers from the debate, or holding a rally instead.

    The decision marks another chapter in Trump’s ongoing feud with Fox, which was once a staunch defender, but is now perceived to be more favorable to his leading rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Fox executives and hosts had lobbied Trump to attend, both privately and on the network’s airwaves. But Trump, according to a person close to him, was unswayed, believing executives would not have been wooing him if they weren’t concerned about their ratings.

    A person familiar had said earlier Sunday that Trump and his team had not notified the Republican National Committee of his plans.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s rivals had been goading him to appear and preparing in the hopes that he might, concerned that a no-show might make them appear like second-tier candidates and deny them the opportunity to land a knockout blow against the race’s Goliath that could change the trajectory of the race.

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, one of the few candidates willing to directly take on Trump, has been accusing the former president of lacking “the guts to show up” and calling him “a coward” if he doesn’t.

    A super PAC supporting DeSantis also released an ad in which the narrator says: “We can’t afford a nominee who is too weak to debate.”

    Trump has pushed back on the attacks, telling Newsmax’s Eric Bolling that he saw little benefit in participating when he’s already leading by a wide margin.

    “It’s not a question of guts. It’s a question of intelligence,” he said.

    Trump has also said that he will not sign a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee if he loses the nomination — a requirement set by the Republican National Committee for appearing on stage.

    “Why would I sign it?” he said. “I can name three or four people that I wouldn’t support for president. So right there, there’s a problem.”

    Nonetheless, his advisers insisted for weeks that he had yet to make a final decision, even as they acknowledged it was “pretty clear” from his public and private statements that he was unlikely to appear.

    It’s not the first time Trump has chosen to skip a major GOP debate.

    During his 2016 campaign, Trump decided to forgo the final GOP primary face-off before the Iowa caucuses and instead held his own campaign event — a flashy telethon-style gathering in Iowa that was billed as a fundraiser for veterans.

    While the event earned him headlines and drew attention away from his rivals, Trump went on to lose the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas — a loss some former aides have blamed, at least in part, on his decision to skip the debate.

    In 2020, Trump pulled out of the second general election debate against now-President Joe Biden after the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan group that has hosted general election debates for more than three decades, sought to make it virtual after Trump tested positive for COVID-19. Trump refused, saying he would only debate on stage.

    Trump is not the only candidate who will likely be missing Wednesday’s event. Several lesser-known rivals appear unlikely to reach the threshold set by the RNC to participate. To qualify, candidates must have received contributions from at least 40,000 individual donors, with at least 200 unique donors in 20 or more states. They also must poll at at least 1% in three designated national polls, or a mix of national and early-state polls, between July 1 and Aug. 21.

    Candidates who have met the qualifications include DeSantis, Christie, former vice president Mike Pence, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

    Beyond the fundraising and polling requirements, the RNC has said candidates must also sign the pledge agreeing to support the eventual party nominee as well as agreeing not to participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debate for the remainder of the election cycle. The RNC is boycotting events organized by the Commission for Presidential Debates, alleging bias.

    “I affirm that if I do not win the 2024 Republican nomination of President of the United States, I will honor the will of the primary voters and support the nominee in order to save our country and beat Joe Biden,” reads the pledge, according to a copy posted by DeSantis to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter. Candidates also must pledge not to run as an independent, write-in candidate or third-party nominee.

    While several candidates, including Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson have taken issue with the requirement, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd so far is the only one who has said definitively that he will not sign the pledge because he refuses to support Trump if he becomes the eventual nominee. Christie has said he will sign whatever is needed to get him on the stage.

    In addition to voicing opposition to the loyalty pledge, Trump has suggested he is opposed to boycotting general election debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates. “You have, really, an obligation to do that,” he said in a radio interview this spring.

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  • What recession? The labor market is sizzling in these states.

    What recession? The labor market is sizzling in these states.

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    Not so long ago, many economists and very smart people were predicting that an economic recession would take place in the summer of 2023. In reality, the unemployment rate fell in seven states between June and July, and in most other states, the labor market remained strong, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

    The state with the lowest unemployment rate was New Hampshire, with a rate of 1.7%. Thirty-six states are at or below the historically low national unemployment rate of 3.5%, while 14 states, along with Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., are above that level.

    In four states — Vermont, Hawaii, Florida and Indiana — employment rose from the previous month. Employment in 46 states and Washington, D.C., was essentially unchanged, with the absolute number of new jobs or job losses being statistically insignificant.

    The data are drawn from two different surveys: The unemployment rate is from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, which is a household survey, while data on nonfarm-payroll employment is based on a survey of employers and establishments.

    To get another glimpse of the employment situation, see MarketWatch’s interactive that breaks down nonfarm employment by industry.

    Check out the full list of states and their unemployment rates and employment statistics below.

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  • Traders brace for explosion of volatility Friday as $2.2 trillion in stock options expire

    Traders brace for explosion of volatility Friday as $2.2 trillion in stock options expire

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    It’s that time again: monthly stock-market options for August are set to expire on Friday, potentially spurring more volatility in stocks after a bruising three-week run.

    U.S. stock option contracts with a notional value of $2.2 trillion are set to expire, according to Rocky Fishman, founder of newly formed strategy firm Asym 500 and a former head of index derivatives strategy at Goldman Sachs Group. Notional value measures the market value of the stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds controlled by the options, although the premiums paid by holders of the options are worth much less.


    ASYM 500

    Fishman noted that the size of option-market open interest expiring on Friday is about average for an off-month expiration.

    Monthly options expire every month, but once a quarter — in March, June, September and December — an event known as “Triple Witching” takes place, causing notional value of expiring options to swell as quarterly and sometimes calendar-year options expire along with monthlies and weeklies.

    Sessions where monthly options expire often see higher-than-normal volatility, and options-market analysts warned that the same could happen on Friday.

    Charlie McElligott, a longtime derivatives strategist who publishes research on Nomura’s trading desk, warned clients that option dealers are “short gamma” heading into Friday’s expiration, increasing the potential for option dealers to exacerbate market volatility. McElligott illustrated this tendency in the chart below.


    NOMURA

    Why are dealers short gamma, and what does this mean? As stocks have stumbled, option traders have been buying put options and selling call options. As a result, dealers could be forced to hedge their positions by buying futures if stocks rise and their customers close out their short-call positions, or selling futures to hedge the risk of puts moving into the money.

    This would serve to exaggerate the market’s move in either direction, driving a rising market higher and a falling market lower, McElligott said.

    Dealers could hit “peak short gamma” if the S&P 500 falls to 4,320, sending a wave of puts into the money. If that happens, it’s possible dealers could slam stocks lower as they rush to avoid being on the hook for puts sold to customers. The S&P 500
    SPX
    finished Thursday at 4,370.36.


    NOMURA

    Gamma is used by options analysts to describe how quickly an option’s delta changes. Delta represents how sensitive the price of an option is to moves in the underlying asset. When options are about to expire, delta typically increases dramatically, since small moves that put it closer to being in or out of the money can have a dramatic impact on the option’s price.

    Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, also cited risks tied to dealers’ short-gamma position in research shared with clients. SpotGamma shares data and analytics about the option market.

    “We have been watching market gamma fall into negative gamma territory all month. Once it entered that range, price action became visibly choppier, as expected during these conditions,” he said in written commentary shared with MarketWatch and SpotGamma clients.

    Option contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset or currency. Often, options tied to stock-market indexes like the S&P 500 are settled in futures or cash. Options tied to exchange-traded funds like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    which tracks the S&P 500 index, are settled in shares of the ETF.

    A put option allows the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell shares at an agreed-upon price known as the “strike price.” A call option, conversely, gives the holder the right to buy shares. Put options tend to appreciate when the underlying stock or index falls, while the opposite is true for calls.

    U.S. stocks finished lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite poised to record a third straight weekly decline, what would be the longest such streak for the S&P 500 since February.

    The S&P 500 was off by 0.8% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    fell by 1.2% to 13,316.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    shed 290.91 points, or 0.8%, to 34,474.83.

    In addition to monthly options expiring Friday, weekly options known as “zero days until expiration” or “0DTE” options could further complicate the market’s reaction. A veteran Goldman Sachs Group strategist warned earlier this week that 0DTE traders have been limiting upswings in stocks while piling on the pressure when markets sink.

    See: ‘This is no longer a buy-the-dip market.’ Why this Goldman Sachs veteran is worried about the stock market.

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