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  • New Study: Third-Grade Scores Predict District-Wide Success on Georgia Milestones

    The 2023-2024 Georgia Milestones data reveals that third-grade literacy plays a pivotal role in students’ long-term success.

    Third grade can be the make-or-break moment in a student’s academic journey, and this year’s 2023-2024 Georgia Milestones Assessment data underscores just how critical early literacy is. The results reveal a striking trend: districts that performed well in third grade saw continued success across all future grade levels, while those that struggled in third grade faced persistent challenges.

    A new comprehensive study of 15 Georgia school districts examined the link between early literacy achievement and long-term academic outcomes. Researchers analyzed reading proficiency rates for grades 3-12 to identify patterns and correlations, accounting for district size, demographics, and geographic diversity, ensuring a broad and representative analysis.

    The findings are clear: third-grade reading proficiency strongly predicts future academic success, with an 81% correlation between early gains and later gains. Students who met reading benchmarks in third grade were far more likely to excel in later grades, graduate high school, and succeed in college and careers. Conversely, those who fell behind often struggled to catch up, widening the learning gap over time.

    “In education, we often talk about closing learning gaps, but this research highlights how important it is to prevent them in the first place,” said Ron Kirschenbaum, Managing Partner at ReadTheory. “By focusing on foundational literacy skills in third grade, schools can significantly alter the academic trajectory of their students.”

    Many Georgia districts are already integrating evidence-based literacy solutions that align with state standards. ReadTheory, in particular, has gained much traction among educators.

    Julia Buff, a teacher in Douglas County, shared, “ReadTheory has helped my students grow, ensuring they are very prepared for our state test at the end of the year.”

    The study also revealed that districts using ReadTheory achieved an average proficiency rate of 56% on the 2023-2034 Georgia Milestones, compared to just 15% in districts that didn’t use the program. This 3.7x difference underscores the platform’s role in strengthening literacy at every stage of learning. The data aligns with the Nation’s Report Card by the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which found that only 30% of Georgia fourth graders and 31% of eighth graders are proficient in reading.

    Grounded in the science of reading, ReadTheory is supporting schools in closing the achievement gap and fundamentally shaping brighter futures for their students. Educators and administrators interested in learning more about ReadTheory’s impact are encouraged to explore the platform and request an introduction for deeper insights.

    About ReadTheory
    ReadTheory is an adaptive reading platform that helps students build essential literacy skills through engaging, personalized practice. Trusted by millions of educators worldwide, ReadTheory delivers real-time insights and effortless differentiation – so every student gets the right support to grow. For more information, visit www.readtheory.org.

    Source: ReadTheory

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  • Microsoft and Meta profits are soaring but their stocks are sagging because both companies aren’t building data centers fast enough

    Microsoft and Meta profits are soaring but their stocks are sagging because both companies aren’t building data centers fast enough

    NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street is feeling the downside of high expectations on Thursday, as Microsoft and Meta Platforms drag U.S. stock indexes lower despite delivering strong profits for the summer.

    The S&P 500 was down 1.6% in midday trading and on track for its worst day in nearly eight weeks, falling further from its record set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 418 points, or 1%, as of 11:15 a.m. Eastern time. The Nasdaq composite was 2.4% lower and heading for a second straight loss after setting its latest all-time high.

    Microsoft reported bigger profit growth for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue also topped forecasts, but its stock nevertheless sank 6% as investors and analysts scrutinized for possible disappointments. Many centered on Microsoft’s estimate for upcoming growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, which fell short of some analysts’ expectations.

    The parent company of Facebook, meanwhile, likewise served up a better-than-expected profit report. As with Microsoft, though, that wasn’t enough for the stock to rise. Investors focused on Meta Platforms’ warning that it expects a “significant acceleration” in spending next year as it continues to pour money into developing artificial intelligence. It fell 3.6%.

    Both Microsoft and Meta Platforms have soared in recent years amid a frenzy around AI, and they’re entrenched among Wall Street’s most influential stocks. But such stellar performances have critics saying their stock prices have simply climbed too fast, leaving them too expensive. It’s difficult to meet everyone’s expectations when they’re so high, and Microsoft and Meta were both among Thursday’s heaviest weights on the S&P 500.

    The next two companies in the highly influential group of stocks known as the “Magnificent Seven” to deliver their latest results will be Apple and Amazon. They’re set to report after trading ends for the day, and both fell at least 1.3% on Thursday.

    Earlier this month, Tesla and Alphabet kicked off the Magnificent Seven’s reports with results that investors found impressive enough to reward with higher stock prices. The lone remaining member, Nvidia, will report its results later this earnings season, and its 4.3% drop was Thursday’s heaviest weight on the market after Microsoft.

    The tumble for Big Tech on the last day of October is helping to wipe out the S&P 500’s gain for the month. The index is down 0.7% and on track for its first down month in the last six, even though it set an all-time high during the middle of it.

    Still, it wasn’t a complete washout on Wall Street thanks in part to cruise ships and cigarettes.

    Norwegian Cruise Line Holding steamed 8.2% higher after delivering stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The cruise ship operator said it was seeing strong demand from customers across its brands and itineraries, and it raised its profit forecast for the full year of 2024.

    Altria Group rose 7.6% for another one of the S&P 500’s bigger gains after it also beat analysts’ profit expectations. Chief Executive Billy Gifford credited resilience for its Marlboro brand, among other things, and announced a cost-cutting program.

    Oil-and-gas companies also generally rose after the price of a barrel of U.S. crude gained 1.3% to recoup some of its losses for the week and for the year so far. ConocoPhillips jumped 4.9%, and Exxon Mobil gained 1%.

    In the bond market, Treasury yields continued their climb following a mixed set of reports on the U.S. economy.

    One report said a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve likes to use slowed to 2.1% in September from 2.3%. That’s almost all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target, though underlying trends after ignoring food and energy costs were a touch hotter than economists expected.

    A separate report said growth in workers’ wages and benefits slowed during the summer. That could put less pressure on upcoming inflation. A third report, meanwhile, said fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week. That’s an indication that the number of layoffs remains relatively low across the country.

    Treasury yields swiveled up and down several times following the reports before climbing. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.31% from 4.30% late Wednesday. That’s up sharply from the roughly 3.60% level it was at in the middle of last month.

    Yields have been rallying following a string of stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy. Such data bolster hopes that the economy can avoid a recession, particularly now that the Fed is cutting interest rates to support the job market instead of keeping them high to quash high inflation. But the surprising resilience is also forcing traders to downgrade their expectations for how deeply the Fed will ultimately cut rates.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes sank across much of Europe and Asia.

    South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% for one of the larger losses after North Korea test launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile designed to be able to hit the U.S. mainland in a move that was likely meant to grab America’s attention ahead of Election Day.

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    Stan Choe, The Associated Press

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  • Why VCs are suddenly hot on photonics startups

    Why VCs are suddenly hot on photonics startups

    Oriole Networks, a British company with plans for a completely new networking infrastructure for AI supercomputing clusters that is based on using light instead of electricity to transmit data, has raised $22 million from the London-based venture capital firm Plural.

    Photonics, which is the science of generating, manipulating, and detecting light, is suddenly a hot topic in the tech industry as a potential solution to two big problems facing AI data centers: their colossal electricity demands and the time it can take train the largest AI models on massive datasets. Just this week, two other companies working on photonic networking for AI chips announced major funding rounds.

    Lightmatter, announced it had raised $400 million in a venture capital deal led by T. Rowe Price that values the seven-year-old company at $4.4 billion. And Xscape Photonics announced it had closed a $44 million investment round led by IAG Capital, with the venture capital arm of network equipment maker Cisco and Nvidia among its other investors.

    No valuation figures were announced as part of either Xscape’s or the Oriole Networks’ fundraises, both of which were Series A rounds.

    The reason photonics is suddenly in vogue has to do with a series of challenges tech companies are encountering as they seek to build ever larger data centers stuffed with hundreds of thousands of specialized chips—in most cases, graphics processing units (or GPUs)— used for training and running AI applications.

    Conventional networking and switching equipment, which primarily uses copper wiring through which electricity is passed to convey information, is itself becoming a bottleneck to how quickly and easily large AI models can be trained. In other cases, fiberoptics are used, but with only a few colors of light traveling in a single cable, which also constrains how much information can be transmitted.

    AI models based on neural networks must shuttle a lot of data continuously back and forth through the entire network. But moving all this data between GPUs, including those that might be located in distant server racks, depends on wiring pathways and the capacity of switching equipment to send data zipping to the right place.

    The way many large AI supercomputing clusters are wired, data traveling from one computer chip to another located elsewhere in the cluster, might have to make as many as nine hops through different network switches before it reaches its destination, George Zervas, Oriole Network’s cofounder and chief technology officer, said.

    The larger the AI model and the more server racks involved, the more likely it is that this roadway of wiring will become congested, similar to how traffic jams delay commuters. For the largest AI models, 90% of their training time can consist of waiting for data in transit across the supercomputing cluster as opposed to the time it actually takes the chips to run the necessary computations.

    Conventional networking equipment, which uses electricity to transmit data, also contributes significantly to the energy requirements of data centers, both by directly consuming power, and because the copper wiring dissipates heat, meaning more energy is required to cool the data center. In some data centers, the networking equipment alone can account for 20% of the facility’s overall energy consumption.

    Depending on what energy source is used to power the data center, this electrical demand can result in a colossal carbon footprint. Meanwhile, many data centers require vast quantities of water to help cool the racks of chips used to run AI applications.

    Cloud computing companies are anticipating power needs for future AI data centers that are driving them to extreme lengths to secure enough energy. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have all struck deals that would see nuclear reactors dedicated solely to powering their data centers. Meanwhile, OpenAI had briefed the U.S. government on a plan to possibly construct multiple data centers that would each consume five gigawatts of power annually, more than the entire city of Miami currently does.

    Photonics potentially solves all of these challenges. Using fiberoptics to transmit data in the form of light instead of electricity makes it possible to connect more of the chips in a supercomputing cluster directly to one another, reducing or eliminating the need for switching equipment. Photonics also uses far less electricity to transmit data than electronics and photonic signals produce no heat in transit.

    Different photonic companies have different ideas about how to use the technology to revamp data centers. Lightmatter is creating a product called Passage that is a light-conducting surface onto which multiple AI chips could be mounted, allowing photonic data transmission between any of the chips on that Passage surface without the need for cabled connections or copper wiring. Fiberoptic cabling would then be used to connect multiple Passage products in a single server rack and for the connections between racks. Xscape envisions using photonic equipment and cabling that can transmit and detect hundreds of different colors of light through a single cable, vastly increasing the amount of data that could flow through the network at any one time.

    But Oriole Networks’ may have the most sweeping vision, using photonics to connect every AI chip in a supercomputing cluster to every other chip in the entire cluster. This could result in training times for the largest AI models—such as OpenAI’s GPT-4—that are up to 10 to 100 times faster, Oriole Networks said. It can also mean networks can be trained using a fraction less power than today’s AI supercomputing clusters consume.

    To accomplish this, Oriole envisions not just new photonic communication equipment but also new software to help program the network, and a new hardware device that can act as the “brain” for the entire network, determining which packets of information will need to be sent between which chips at exactly what moment.

    “It’s completely radical,” Oriole CEO James Regan said. “There’s no electrical packet switching in the network at all.”

    Oriole Networks was spun-out from University College London in 2023, but it relies on technology that its founders, in particular Zervas, pioneered over the past two decades. In addition to Zervas, who is a veteran photonics researcher, UCL PhD. student Alessandro Ottino and post-doctoral fellow Joshua Benjamin, who is an expert in designing communication networks, cofounded the company. They brought on Regan, an experienced entrepreneur who helped create a previous photonics company, as CEO.

    The company currently employs 30 people. It raised an initial Seed funding round of $13 million in March from a group of investors that includes the venture capital arm of XTX Markets, which operates one of the largest GPU clusters in Europe. UCL Technology Fund, XTX Ventures, Clean Growth Fund, and Dorilton Ventures also all participated in both the Seed round and the most recent Series A investment.

    Regan said that Oriole is using other companies to manufacture the photonic equipment it is designing, which will enable the company to keep its capital requirements lower than would otherwise be the case and enable the company to move faster. He said it aims to have initial equipment with potential customers to test in 2025.

    The company has held discussions with most of the “hyperscale” cloud service providers as well as a number of semiconductor companies manufacturing GPUs and AI chips.

    Ian Hogarth, the partner at Plural who led the Series A investment, said that he was drawn to Oriole Networks because it represented “a paradigm shift” rather than an incremental approach to making AI data centers more energy and resource efficient. Hogarth, who is also the chair of the U.K.’s AI Safety Institute, said he was impressed by the “raw ambition and speed that [Oriole’s] founders have brought to the problem.”

    He said the company fit in with other investments Plural has made into companies helping to combat climate change. Finally, he said he felt it was important for Europe “to have really hard assets when it comes to the evolution of the compute stack, and to not squander the opportunity to translate brilliant inventions from European universities, UK universities, into iconic companies.”

    Of course, there’s been hype about photonics before, and it hasn’t always panned out. During the first internet boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was also great excitement about the possibility of photonics to become the primary backbone for the internet, including for switching equipment. Venture capitalists back then also poured money into the sector. But most of those investments failed to pan out because of a lack of maturity in the photonics industry. Parts were difficult and expensive to manufacture and had higher failure rates than semiconductors and more conventional electronic switching equipment. Then, when the dot com bubble burst, it largely took the photonics boom down with it.

    Regan says that things are different today. The ecosystem of companies making photonic integrated circuits and photonic equipment is more robust than it was and the technology far more reliable, he said. A decade ago, a company like Oriole Networks would have had to manufacture much of the equipment it wants to produce itself—a much more capital intensive and risky proposition. Today, there is a reliable supply chain of contract manufacturers that can execute designs developed by Oriole, he said.

    Jeremy Kahn

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  • Jobs report stokes Wall Street rally that erases the week’s earlier losses

    Jobs report stokes Wall Street rally that erases the week’s earlier losses

    Wall Street soared Friday on news that employers are still hiring in strong numbers, recovering from slumps caused by fears that escalating Middle East tensions could impact global energy supply.

    • S&P 500: 5,751.07 ⬆️ up 0.90%
    • Nasdaq Composite: 18,137.85 ⬆️ up 1.22%
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,352.75 ⬆️ up 0.81% 
    • STOXX Europe 600: 518.56 ⬆️ up 0.44%
    • Hang Seng Index: 22,736.87 ⬆️ up 2.82%
    • Nikkei 225: 38,635.62 ⬆️ up 0.22%
    • Bitcoin: $62,336.70 ⬆️ up 2.62%

    US: Wall Street gains on stellar jobs report
    US employers added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing estimates and signaling continued economic strength. The S&P 500 closed up 0.90%, and the Dow neared its record, up 0.81%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.22% with big gains for Nvidia, Broadcom Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices.

    The news erased losses from earlier in the week, as S&P 500 finished with a 0.22% weekly gain, while the Dow added 0.09%, and the Nasdaq ticked up 0.1%.

    Europe: US jobs report lifts markets abroad
    Europe markets were mixed in early trading but gained on the U.S. jobs report. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 0.44% and the U.K.’s FTSE made up for losses early in the day, hovering near its Thursday close.

    China: Hong Kong rally resumes after holiday
    Hong Kong shares resumed their rally on the back of China’s stimulus measures, jumping 2.82% a day after traders took profits following a three-week rise of some 30%.

    Japan: Markets end week near where they started
    The Nikkei 225 ended a yo-yo week with a slight 0.22% gain after new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba outlined his economic agenda, which includes above-inflation pay raises and assistance for low-income households.

    Brooke Seipel

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  • Google begins wide rollout of ads in AI overview search results

    Google begins wide rollout of ads in AI overview search results

    Alphabet Inc.’s Google is beginning a wide rollout of ads that will be displayed within and alongside the AI-generated summaries that appear at the top of some search results — a move meant to show investors that costly artificial intelligence projects can generate revenue.

    Some investors have worried that generative AI, the tech that underpins Google’s AI summaries, could cannibalize the tech giant’s search business, which is still by far its most lucrative unit. The company said in May that it would start testing ads in these search summaries, called AI Overviews, and now it’s rolling the feature out to anyone in the US using Google’s mobile app.

    Sponsored panels placed above, below and within the summaries have begun suggesting products related to the search query. At a demonstration for reporters held ahead of the announcement, searching “how do I get a grass stain out of jeans?” yielded AI-generated instructions followed by ads for Tide and OxiClean laundry products.

    The company will not share ad revenue with publishers whose material is cited in AI Overviews, a company spokesperson said.

    Google places its AI Overviews, which summarize the contents of search results, at the top of the page for some queries. First introduced in May, they were criticized for displaying inaccurate information and reducing the need to click through to cited websites that would earn ad revenue from visits. 

    The company has been under pressure to prove that it doesn’t have an unfair advantage over competitors in the search and advertising technology markets, which could have implications for its progress in AI. The US Justice Department in recent years brought two antitrust cases against the company, with a judge ruling in August that Google illegally monopolized the search business. The DOJ is considering seeking remedies including forcing the search giant to share precious search data with competitors — which they could use to bolster their own AI tools and services — and even breaking up the company, Bloomberg has reported. In a separate case, the DOJ leveled similar charges against Google’s ad tech unit. That trial wrapped up late last month.

    In a separate announcement on Thursday, the search giant also said it will start adding inline links to sources used in AI-generated summaries, and initial tests showed these links sent more traffic to websites compared to the old design with links at the bottom, said Rhiannon Bell, Google Search’s vice president of user experience, during the media demonstration.

    In addition, Google will begin sorting search results into scrollable lists of suggestions tailored to the user’s query and account history. “AI-organized search results,” as the company calls the feature, will initially be limited to suggesting recipes to American users of Google’s mobile app.

    The company also said that Google Lens, the visual search app, will now be able to process video and voice input in addition to photos and text.

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    Curtis Heinzl, Bloomberg

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  • Google’s ex-CEO blames remote working on the company’s AI woes

    Google’s ex-CEO blames remote working on the company’s AI woes

    Google’s former CEO Eric Schmidt has a complaint about his old stomping ground—and it’s one that workers have heard on repeat for the past two years: They aren’t working in the office enough. 

    Schmidt, who left Google for good in 2020, blasted the company’s working-from-home policy during a recent talk at Stanford University, while claiming it’s the reason why the search engine giant is lagging behind in the AI race. 

    “Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning,” Schmidt told Stanford students.

    “And the reason startups work is because the people work like hell.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxDM8io4lUA

    “I’m sorry to be so blunt,” Schmidt continued in the video posted on Stanford’s YouTube channel on Tuesday. “But the fact of the matter is, if you all leave the university and go found a company, you’re not gonna let people work from home and only come in one day a week if you want to compete against the other startups.”

    Schmidt made the remarks in response to a question from professor Erik Brynjolfsson about how Google have lost the lead in AI to startups like OpenAI and Anthropic.

    “I asked [Google CEO] Sundar [Pichai] this, he didn’t really give me a very sharp answer. Maybe you have a sharper or a more objective explanation for what’s going on there,” Brynjolfsson posed to the former Google boss.

    Fortune has contacted Schmidt and Google for comment.

    WFH became the norm at Google after Schmidt left

    Schmidt, who led Google from 2001 to 2011, before handing the reins back to the search giant’s co-founder Larry Page, stayed on as Google’s executive chairman and technical advisor until 2020. 

    Since then, the world of work has undergone a significant transformation. Despite the dangers of the pandemic being long behind us, companies are largely still operating remotely—at least for part of the week. 

    In fact, a study from KPMG recently revealed that CEOs who believe office workers will be back at their desks five days a week in the near future are now in the small minority. 

    It’s worth highlighting that Schmidt’s one-day-a-week remark is an exaggeration: Like most firms, Google has asked workers to come into offices around three days a week, per the company’s 2022 Diversity Annual Report.

    More recently, Google has even begun formally tracking office badge swipes and using it as a metric in performance reviews.

    However, Schmidt should note that employee backlash from rigid return-to-office mandates could actually wipe out any productivity gains in Google’s AI department.

    WFH, RTO and productivity

    Schmidt’s not the first leader to complain that working from home kills innovation.

    However, CEOs who order their staff to work from an office five days à la pre-pandemic risk having fewer staff around to innovate.

    Reams of research suggest that workers would quit their jobs if forced to return to their company’s vertical towers.

    Meanwhile, leaders who have already enforced an RTO mandate have admitted they experienced more attrition than they anticipated and are struggling with recruitment. 

    Elon Musk, for one, has been an outspoken advocate for in-office work—he quickly found out that employees will call their bosses ultimatum to commute to work or find another job.

    Twitter’s (now X) operations were put at risk soon after he took over when more workers than expected chose to quit rather than answer Musk’s call to go “hardcore”.

    Plus, even if employees don’t quit in anger, they’ll likely have less zing for their jobs: A staggering 99% of companies with RTO mandates have seen a drop in engagement. 

    Either way, Google’s lack of innovation in the AI department can’t be down to staff working from home more than those at OpenAI—they have the same 3-day in-office policy.

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    Orianna Rosa Royle

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  • MIT economist: Markets have overestimated AI-driven productivity gains

    MIT economist: Markets have overestimated AI-driven productivity gains

    The problem with the AI bubble isn’t that it is bursting and bringing the market down—it’s that the hype will likely go on for a while and do much more damage in the process than experts are anticipating.

    Economic analysts, consultants, and business leaders are desperate for anything that will lift productivity growth in the industrialized world. It has been disappointing in the information age, despite all of the glimmer and talk of revolutionary technologies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP)—economists’ favorite measure of macroeconomic productivity which estimates how much aggregate output is growing due to improvements in efficiency and technology—used to grow about 2% a year throughout the 1950s, 60s, and early 70s. Since the 1980s, its growth has been hovering around 0.5%. The promise of an AI-driven productivity boom is music to everyone’s ears.

    It isn’t just wishful thinking on the part of businesses. The hype machine of the tech world is powerful. We are told every day in newspapers and social media about the transformative effects of new tools, sparkling with superhuman intelligence.

    And of course, the prospect of artificial general intelligence (AGI) appeals to us after decades of Hollywood movies where machines become so capable that they battle it out with humans.

    Alas, it seems unlikely that anything of the scale promised by the tech world—such as rapid advances towards singularity where machines can do everything humans can—is even remotely possible. Even more grounded predictions such as those from Goldman Sachs that generative AI will boost global GDP by 7% over the next decade and from the McKinsey Global Institute that the annual GDP growth rate could increase by 3-4 percentage points between now and 2040, may be far too optimistic.

    What should we expect from AI?

    My own research shows that the effect of the suite of AI technologies is more likely to be in the range of about 0.5%-0.6% increase in U.S. TFP and about 1% increase in US GDP within 10 years. This is nothing to sneer at. Given the state of the economy in the United States and other industrialized countries, we should welcome such a contribution with open arms and do our best so that this potential is realized. Yet, it isn’t transformative.

    Where this number comes from is useful to understand, not just to increase our confidence in it but also to know why we could even squander that potential if we give in to the hype.

    On its current trajectory and with current capabilities, AI’s biggest impact will come from automating some tasks and making workers a little more productive in some occupations. For now, this can only happen in occupations that do not involve much interaction with the real world (construction, custodial services, and all sorts of blue-collar and craft work are out) and in occupations that do not have a central social element (psychiatry, much of entertainment and academia are out). Even in occupations that fall outside of these categories, getting much productivity growth from AI will be difficult. Physicians could benefit from AI in diagnosis and calibrating their treatment and prescription decisions. But this requires much more reliable AI models—not gimmicks such as large language models that can write Shakespearean sonnets.

    Based on the available evidence and these considerations, I estimate that only about 4.6% of tasks in the U.S. economy can be meaningfully impacted by AI within the next decade.

    Combine this with existing estimates of how much of a productivity gain businesses can get from the use of generative AI tools, which is on average about 14%, and you come up with a TFP boost of only 0.66% over ten years, or by 0.06% annually.

    I readily admit that there is a huge degree of uncertainty. It may well be that generative AI models will make tremendous progress within the next few years and suddenly they can do much more than the 4.6% I currently estimate. Or they could revolutionize the process of science, leading to myriad new materials and products that we could not dream of today and completely change the production process for the better.

    But I, for one, don’t think this is the likely outcome. A very tiny percentage of U.S. companies are currently using AI, and it will be a slow process until AI is productively used throughout the economy.

    Hype is the enemy

    Worse, the hype may be the biggest enemy of getting productivity increases from AI, and the misallocation of resources that it causes could make us lose the modest gains that we can get from AI.

    This is for at least three reasons. First, with the hype, there will be a lot of overinvestment in AI. Most business executives, at least until last week’s market correction and soul-searching, were under pressure to jump on the AI bandwagon. If you are not investing in AI massively, you are lagging behind your peers, they were told by journalists, consultants, and tech experts. This leads to efficiency losses not to efficiency gains. In a rush to automate everything, even the processes that shouldn’t be automated, businesses will waste time and energy and will not get any of the productivity benefits that are promised. The hard truth is that getting productivity gains from any technology requires organizational adjustment, a range of complementary investments, and improvements in worker skills, via training and on-the-job learning. The miraculous, revolutionary returns from AI are very likely to remain a chimera.

    Second, there will be a lot of wasted resources, investment, and energy, as tech companies and their backers go after bigger and bigger generative AI models. The current market correction will not stop tech leaders from asking for trillions of dollars to buy even more GPU capacity and strive to build bigger models. They may pass on some of these costs by selling their services and technologies to businesses that are not ready to undertake this transition, but as a society, we surely bear the consequences of this overinvestment.

    Third and most fundamentally, boosting productivity requires workers to become more productive, gain greater expertise, and use better information in their decision-making and problem-solving. This applies not just to journalists, academics, and office workers—most of what electricians, plumbers, blue-collar workers, educators, and healthcare workers do is tackle a series of problems. The better the information they use, the better they will be at their jobs and the more able they will become to take on more sophisticated tasks. The real promise of AI is as an informational tool: to collect, process, and present reliable, context-dependent, and easy-to-use information to human decision-makers.

    But this is not the direction in which the tech industry, mesmerized by human-like chatbots and dreams of AGI and misled by self-appointed AI prophets, is heading.

    More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

    The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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    Daron Acemoglu

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  • Video Game Actors Go On Strike For AI Protections

    Video Game Actors Go On Strike For AI Protections

    Video game actors are going on strike for the first time since 2017 after months of negotiations with Activision, Epic Games, and other big publishers and studios over higher pay, better safety measures, and protections from new generative AI technologies. They’ll be hitting the picket line a year after Hollywood actors and writers wrapped up their own historic strikes in an escalation that could have big consequences for the development and marketing of some of the industry’s biggest games.

    Members of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) voted last fall to authorize a strike citing an unwillingness of big game companies to budge on guaranteeing performers rights over how their work is used in training AI or creating AI-generated copies. Roughly 2,600 voice actors and motion capture artists, including talents like Troy Baker from The Last of Us, Jennifer Hale from Mass Effect, and Matt Mercer from The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, have been working without an Interactive Media Agreement since November 2022. The strike starts on July 26 at 12:01 a.m.

    “The video game industry generates billions of dollars in profit annually. The driving force behind that success is the creative people who design and create those games,” chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland said in a statement. “That includes the SAG-AFTRA members who bring memorable and beloved game characters to life, and they deserve and demand the same fundamental protections as performers in film, television, streaming, and music: fair compensation and the right of informed consent for the A.I. use of their faces, voices, and bodies. Frankly, it’s stunning that these video game studios haven’t learned anything from the lessons of last year – that our members can and will stand up and demand fair and equitable treatment with respect to A.I., and the public supports us in that.”

    Read More: Video Game Voice Actors Are Ready To Strike Over AI. Here’s Why

    “We are disappointed the union has chosen to walk away when we are so close to a deal, and we remain prepared to resume negotiations, spokesperson Audrey Cooling for the companies involved in the Interactive Media Agreement said in an emailed statement. “We have already found common ground on 24 out of 25 proposals, including historic wage increases and additional safety provisions. Our offer is directly responsive to SAG-AFTRA’s concerns and extends meaningful AI protections that include requiring consent and fair compensation to all performers working under the IMA. These terms are among the strongest in the entertainment industry.”

    While games set to come out this fall like Dragon Age: The Veilguard, who’s recently revealed voice cast includes several guild members, likely already have their voice and motion-capture work completed, the strike means SAG-AFTRA members would be unavailable for projects that are years out, and wouldn’t be around to record for any potential last-minute re-writes for things that are closer to coming out. Games relied much less on actor performances in the past, but most popular franchises are now fully voice-acted, with the biggest-budget productions using motion capture to transfer actors’ real-life performances, frame by frame, into the game.

    The last time video game actors went on strike in 2016, it was primarily over pay rates and lasted a entire year. It’s unclear if the strike this time around will be over any sooner. Unlike with the issue of higher pay, people involved in the current negotiations say that the lack of AI protections poses an existential threat to actors and their creative output. Just this week, Wired reported that companies like Activision Blizzard and Riot Games were moving ahead with using generative AI tools to help create concept art and even potentially assets that would make it into finished games like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3.

    “Eighteen months of negotiations have shown us that our employers are not interested in fair, reasonable A.I. protections, but rather flagrant exploitation,” said negotiating committee chair Sarah Elmaleh said in a statement. “We refuse this paradigm—we will not leave any of our members behind, nor will we wait for sufficient protection any longer. We look forward to collaborating with teams on our Interim and Independent contracts, which provide A.I. transparency, consent and compensation to all performers, and to continuing to negotiate in good faith with this bargaining group when they are ready to join us in the world we all deserve.”

    SAG-AFTRA video game voice actors are set to hold a panel featuring Ashly Burch (Horizon Forbidden West), Noshir Dala (Red Dead Redemption II), and others at San Diego Comicon later this week on July 26.

    Update 7/25/2024 3:42 p.m. ET: Added a statement from the game companies.

            

    Ethan Gach

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  • Stock market faces 10% correction ahead of election, warns Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist

    Stock market faces 10% correction ahead of election, warns Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist

    Investors could face a correction as the quarterly earnings season kicks off, with stocks trading at all-time highs. 

    Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist warned uncertainty around a host of different issues—including corporate earnings, the November election outcome, future tariffs and central bank policy—will mean the current third quarter could get “choppy” for investors.

    “Right here, valuations to me look very, very unexciting,” Mike Wilson told Bloomberg TV on Monday. “I think the chance of a 10% correction is highly likely sometime between now and the election.” 

    The Morgan Stanley strategist was quick to point out that apart from a few dozen U.S. corporations, the average company isn’t seeing its profits increase, and it will not until the Federal Reserve begins to loosen. 

    Investors are hoping to glean some helpful hints on the direction of monetary policy when chair Jay Powell provides testimony to Congress today and tomorrow. Currently the market is pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut in September as labor market data softens. 

    “We need rates to come down, that’s number one,” Wilson told Bloomberg Television. “Or we need some sort of exogenous positive shock on the growth side that doesn’t lead to an inflationary problem. You tell me where that’s coming from.”

    AI chip supplier Taiwan seeing exports to U.S. soar

    Here’s where artificial intelligence, and generative AI in particular, enters the picture.

    Whether it’s Apple, Meta, or Amazon, many companies are notching fresh record highs amid expectations that AI will prove transformational for corporate profits, boosting productivity without pushing up prices.

    The question is whether the slate of earnings figures will bear that out when the first begin reporting results later this week, starting with the major Wall Street banks on Friday.

    “I am looking at during the second quarter for a lot of companies to give us some specific examples of how AI is starting to make a difference in their productivity and cost cutting,” Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni told CNBC on Monday.

    The latest export data from Taiwan, a major provider of cutting-edge electronics needed for AI-powered data centers, shows goods shipped to the United States soared 74% in June over the previous year’s period, helped by companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

    On Monday, the country’s industry-leading foundry, which fabricates AI chips on behalf of Nvidia, even joined, however brief, the elite club of megacap stocks worth $1 trillion or more.

    In the face of this momentum, Yardeni believes investors find little reason not to chase the market higher.

    “The market for the past few weeks has just continued to march higher to new record highs and it’s done it on disappointing economic indicators,” he said.

    “I think investors have concluded that let’s not worry too much about the economy slowing or even a recession because if that were even to become a significant risk, the Fed will move pretty quickly to lower interest rates.”

    AI hallucinations may erode some of the predicted productivity gains

    But AI may not prove to be the silver bullet everyone thinks.

    James Ferguson, founding partner of UK-based economic research firm MacroStrategy Partnership, argues investors are not accounting for the propensity of generative AI to hallucinate, i.e. spit out fictitious data and information that dilutes productivity gains.

    Businesses that fail to spend time double-checking their work can find themselves in a similar bind as the law firm Levidow, Levidow & Oberman.

    It made headlines across the country in all the wrong ways after submitting a legal argument that cited case precedents ChatGPT had fabricated out of thin air.

    “Fake it till you make it may work in Silicon Valley, but for the rest of us, I think once bitten twice shy may be more appropriate,” he told a recent Bloomberg podcast, warning the hype around AI has spawned a concentrated market bubble reminiscent of the dotcom era. “If AI cannot be trusted […] then AI is effectively—in my mind—useless.”

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    Christiaan Hetzner

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  • Chinese-backed crypto firm must sell Wyoming land plot and get rid of equipment possibly capable of ‘espionage activities,’ says President Biden

    Chinese-backed crypto firm must sell Wyoming land plot and get rid of equipment possibly capable of ‘espionage activities,’ says President Biden

    President Joe Biden on Monday issued an order blocking a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency mining firm from owning land near a Wyoming nuclear missile base, calling its proximity to the base a “national security risk.”

    The order forces the divestment of property operated as a crypto mining facility near the Francis E. Warren Air Force Base. MineOne Partners Ltd., a firm partly backed by Chinese nationals, and its affiliates are also required to remove certain equipment on the site.

    This comes as the U.S. is slated on Tuesday to issue major new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with the plan.

    And with election season in full swing, both Biden and his presumptive Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, have told voters that they’ll be tough on China, the world’s second-largest economy after the United States and an emerging geopolitical rival.

    The Monday divestment order was made in coordination with the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States — a little-known but powerful government committee tasked with investigating corporate deals for national security concerns that holds power to force companies to change ownership structures or divest completely from the U.S.

    A 2018 law granted CFIUS the authority to review real estate transactions near sensitive sites across the U.S., including F.E. Warren Air Force Base.

    MineOne purchased the land that is within one mile of the Air Force base in Cheyenne in 2022, and according to CFIUS, the purchase was not reported to the committee as required until after the panel received a public tip.

    The order was vague about the specific national security concerns, with the Treasury Department saying only that there were issues with “specialized and foreign-sourced equipment potentially capable of facilitating surveillance and espionage activities” that “presented a significant national security risk.”

    A representative from the firm did not respond to an Associated Press request for comment.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who serves as the chairperson of CFIUS, said the role of the committee is “to ensure that foreign investment does not undermine our national security, particularly as it relates to transactions that present risk to sensitive U.S. military installations as well as those involving specialized equipment and technologies.”

    The committee is made up of members from the State, Justice, Energy and Commerce Departments among others, which investigates national security risks from foreign investments in American firms.

    CFIUS directed the sale of the property within 120 days, and that within 90 days the company remove all structures and equipment on the site.

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    Fatima Hussein, Zeke Miller, The Associated Press

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  • The AI data center revolution is happening right in your backyard

    The AI data center revolution is happening right in your backyard

    If you use generative AI, you know that it can seem like magic. Chatbots and multimedia models can effortlessly conjure up poems or high-res videos at the snap of a finger. 

    But AI models’ speedy outputs and sleek interfaces mask the enormous amount of physical infrastructure behind them—and as AI continues to grow, the data centers and power plants that AI is built on are starting to get widespread attention outside of the industry.

    Earlier this week, I took a train to Orangeburg, New York, a sleepy lower Hudson Valley suburb just 25 miles from Fortune’s newsroom in downtown Manhattan. I was there to visit one of a wave of AI infrastructure projects popping up across the country—Orangeburg is the future home of data center company DataBank’s newest site, named LGA3. 

    DataBank already operates two data centers in the New York metro area: one in Newark, New Jersey, and one in Chelsea, Manhattan. But LGA3 will be by far its biggest site—a $250 million, 200,000-square-foot facility drawing up to 45 megawatts of energy to power five massive data halls packed to the gills with computer chips.

    The facility won’t open until next year, but tenants have already been booking space—most notably New Jersey-based AI startup CoreWeave, which recently secured an eye-watering $19 billion valuation and has already reserved almost half of LGA3’s capacity.

    “The explosive growth in artificial intelligence has required a complete reevaluation of traditional data centers to meet demand for next-generation compute requirements, and this new data center campus provides some of the most advanced new technologies that will allow us to deliver for our customers,” CoreWeave founder Ben Venturo wrote to me in a note.

    My taxi from the train station took no less than four wrong turns as we wound our way past farmhouses and office parks to the LGA3 construction site, wedged between an electrical substation and the New Jersey state line. Hopping out of the car, my first impression was the sheer size of the building. LGA3 looked about the size of a New York city block, a massive, single-story hall with high ceilings—I wouldn’t be surprised if you could fit a commercial jet inside. 

    ‘Addicted to technology’

    DataBank CEO Raul Martynek greeted me on the way in, wearing clear-rimmed glasses and a lavender button-down. Martynek has been in the internet infrastructure industry for decades, almost since the advent of the commercial internet in the 1990s. He’s been with Databank since 2017, overseeing the company’s 69 data centers across the U.S. and U.K. Martynek told me that he hasn’t seen an explosion in demand for digital infrastructure like the one AI is creating since the dot-com bubble of the late ’90s.

    “Humans are addicted to technology, period. And ultimately, for the data center sector, what we do is we enable humans to deploy more technology,” Martynek told me. “If you deploy more technology, you need more fiber, more cell towers, more data centers. And for this particular phase that we’re in with AI, data centers are the bottleneck.”

    Companies are shelling out billions to build out new data centers for cloud computing—such as this Amazon facility in Ashburn, Virginia.

    Nathan Howard/Bloomberg

    A huge increase in demand from AI has catapulted data centers into front-page headlines. Martynek explained to me that most things we do online nowadays—from accessing images on our phones to scrolling social media to prompting ChatGPT—involve physical hardware more than we realize. Wi-Fi routers and cell towers are constantly sending signals through underground fiber optic cables to data centers and remote servers, accessing stored information and keeping the internet humming.

    “The internet is a network, right? Information gets sent out over fiber optic cables as photons. And they travel around the world at close to the speed of light,” Martynek said. “I was hanging out with a network guy last night saying, ‘What do you do?’ He said, ‘We’re plumbers, right?’”

    And these days, being a plumber is a good business. Exponential increases in the amount of data being generated for and by the internet over the past 20 years—and expectations that AI will only speed things up even more—mean that space to store all that information is in high demand.

    “This device didn’t exist before 2007,” Martynek told me, pointing to his iPhone. “So think about how much content and how many applications have been created [by it.] All that stuff ends up in a data center…That’s the physical ecosystem.”

    Courtesy SourceCode Communications

    AI boosts need for building space

    Data centers might not be the sexiest projects, but a surge in demand from AI companies is bringing in big money, heavy press coverage, and some of the biggest names in construction. DataBank alone has spent around $4.5 billion on data center projects since 2016. Tishman Speyer, the real estate company building LGA3, is one of the highest-profile names in the business: it worked on the World Trade Center and Chicago’s John Hancock Center, and it owns Rockefeller Center, too. A low-slung data bank next door to a suburban Little League baseball complex might seem an odd addition to its portfolio, but it’s betting that data centers will prove to be just as important as skyscrapers.

    When I first got the invite to visit, the location surprised me. New York? Home to some of the highest real estate and energy prices in the country? Wouldn’t it be cheaper to build this in the middle of the desert, where land is cheaper and there’s access to bottom-dollar renewable energy? 

    But Martynek explained that for many customers, it’s just not practical to be located thousands of miles away from one of the most important parts of your business. New York is one of the country’s largest data center markets, with around 800 megawatts of capacity currently online, much of it catering to finance and tech companies who depend on nearby computing capacity to build and trade around the clock.

    “It’s not practical for a data center to be in the middle of nowhere—there’s too much latency,” Martynek said, referring to delays in the response time between computers and offsite data centers. “Too many things can happen along the way.”

    “Data centers have tended to cluster around metropolitan areas,” he continued. “New York has always been a pretty big data center market. That’s really a function of the population and a function of the businesses—if you’re JPMorgan, you don’t want your data center in Omaha.”

    Public policy is also a factor. New York Governor Kathy Hochul unveiled the state’s Empire AI initiative earlier this year, which earmarked over $400 million to fund, among other things, infrastructure such as data center projects.

    Donning a hard hat and reflective vest, I walked around the half-built structure with two construction managers. They pointed out the airplane hangar-sized area where the banks of computer chips would eventually be installed, along with the ventilation and water cooling to keep them from overheating. 

    Once construction is finished up, CoreWeave and DataBank’s other customers will start installing their chips, and DataBank expects the facility to be up and running in full by early next year. Once it’s online, CoreWeave will start leasing out its computing capacity to tech startups and other AI companies. Martynek told me DataBank hasn’t had any trouble finding customers.

    “We signed the contract with CoreWeave last year. This building didn’t even exist then—it was just dirt. That’s how in-demand this product is,” Martynek said. “There’s a frenzy.”

    As the saying goes, strike while the iron’s hot—DataBank is already putting together plans for another site right next door, LGA4. Next time you’re driving around town, keep an eye on the nondescript buildings in your area: The AI data center boom might be closer than you think.

    Dylan Sloan

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  • Europe is falling behind in generative AI, with the U.S. light years ahead. But the race is just getting started

    Europe is falling behind in generative AI, with the U.S. light years ahead. But the race is just getting started

    The potential of generative AI knows no limits. And what we have seen of it now might only be the tip of the iceberg. 

    For years, companies around the world have been working on mustering up their AI prowess—be it in the U.S., China, or France.

    Generative AI’s potential to boost productivity, ignite creativity, and overhaul workflows is now taking off within countless industries. Regardless of the business case, companies working with or making their own generative AI tools have been catapulted to the forefront of the conversation.

    Marking our inaugural Brainstorm AI conference at the Rosewood Hotel in London, where we’ll unpack some of these complex yet pressing subjects, Fortune took a deep dive into the state of play for generative AI across the world, with exclusive insights based on data from the Amsterdam-based intelligence company Dealroom.  

    Our analysis covers the world’s top 100 generative AI companies by funding. It’s little surprise that U.S.-based (and specifically, San Francisco Bay Area-based) companies dominated other regions by light years. The Sam Altman-led OpenAI is, by far, the highest-funded AI company, while its California neighbors Anthropic and Inflection AI follow closely after. Over in Europe, the likes of Mistral AI and Aleph Alpha have gained traction for their innovations. 

    Still, companies in France, the U.K., and Germany received a fraction of the funding—not because there aren’t enough of them, but because they haven’t reached the mammoth size their American peers have. Israel, which we’ve included in our analysis, also has a buzzing generative AI scene. 

    In numbers, that means Dealroom’s data on the 100 companies cuts off those that have raised below $70 million in total funding. That’s where the bulk of Europe’s fledgling companies fall. Since Dealroom data mainly considers funding figures in this case, some noteworthy players in the generative AI realm, like Google, aren’t part of the analysis below.

    But Europe has to pat itself on the back for some of the strides it’s made. For instance, three of the 15 companies on our list have female founders. Seven companies were initially founded in Europe but have since moved to the U.S., where they obtained about $1.7 billion in funding.  

    Given the technology’s various use cases, defining what qualifies as a generative AI company can be challenging. By definition, generative AI uses algorithms to create new and realistic content—including text, images, and audio—based on training data. Dealroom’s data, which is as of April 2024, looks at companies that either use or create large language models trained on massive data sets to produce new content. 

    The charts below give us a glimpse of how Europe compares to some of the world’s AI power players. They also show us where the biggest strides in generative AI are being made in Europe and who the movers and shakers are.

    Total funding for the world’s top 100 generative AI startups, by region

    It’s clear that the U.S. has received the lion’s share of funding. American companies are ahead with more than 10 times the funding–$36.8 billion in funds raised compared to European and Israeli companies, which have only raised $3.2 billion so far. OpenAI is a clear leader with $12.3 billion in funds raised, according to data compiled by Dealroom.

    Key European markets home to the biggest gen AI players by funding

    In our analysis, Israel has the lead over Europe as a hub for generative AI companies, based on how much they’ve secured in funding. Within continental Europe, Germany and France emerge at the top. 

    The majority of the funding for European companies originates from European investors, based on Dealroom data. Roughly 43% of the funding for European and Israeli companies comes from their home countries, about 13% comes from a different country within Europe, and 39% comes from the U.S.   

    Most funded companies in Europe and Israel

    Here’s a glimpse at the most funded companies in Europe and Israel–Aleph Alpha, the German answer to OpenAI founded by Jonas Andrulis, leads the category. In Nov. 2023, Bosch, SAP, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise backed a $500 million series B funding round, marking one of Europe’s biggest AI funding rounds ever.

    France’s Mistral AI, led by Arthur Mensch, comes up second. Microsoft said it would invest $16.3 million into the French company in February.

    See below for the full list of generative AI companies headquartered in Europe and Israel ranked by funding, per Dealroom data. 


    Aleph Alpha

    Launch year: 2019
    HQ city/country: Heidelberg, Germany
    Total funding (USD): $641.14 million

    Mistral AI

    Launch year: 2023
    HQ city/country:
    Paris, France
    Total funding:
    $553 million

    AI21

    Launch year: 2017
    HQ city/country:
    Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel
    Total funding:
    $326.5 million

    Lightricks

    Launch year: 2013
    HQ city/country: Jerusalem, Israel
    Total funding: $305 million

    Cera

    Launch year: 2016
    HQ city/country: London, United Kingdom
    Total funding: $302.5 million

    Synthesia

    Launch year: 2017
    HQ city/country: London, United Kingdom
    Total funding: $155.58 million

    Stability AI

    Launch year: 2019
    HQ city/country: London, United Kingdom
    Total funding: $151 million

    Poolside AI

    Launch year: 2023
    HQ city/country: Paris, France
    Total funding: $126.01 million

    Pecan

    Launch year: 2016
    HQ city/country: Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel
    Total funding: $112 million

    DeepL

    Launch year: 2009
    HQ city/country: Cologne, Germany
    Total funding: $110 million

    MDClone

    Launch year: 2015
    HQ city/country: Beersheba, Israel
    Total funding: $104.01 million

    Corti

    Launch year: 2016
    HQ city/country: Copenhagen, Denmark
    Total funding: $90.9 million

    Stratio

    Launch year: 2014
    HQ city/country: Pozuelo de Alarcón, Spain
    Total funding: $85.8 million

    Sana Labs

    Launch year: 2016
    HQ city/country: Stockholm, Sweden
    Total funding: $82.57 million

    Ready Player Me

    Launch year: 2014
    HQ city/country:
    Tallinn, Estonia
    Total funding:
    $72.55 million

    This feature was reported with assistance from Fortune’s executive editor Alex Wood Morton, list director Grethe Schepers, research analyst Elena Medina, and production editor Aslesha Mehta. 

    Prarthana Prakash, Alex Wood Morton

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  • Meta and Google announce new in-house AI chips, creating a “trillion-dollar question” for Nvidia

    Meta and Google announce new in-house AI chips, creating a “trillion-dollar question” for Nvidia

    Hardware is emerging as a key AI growth area. For Big Tech companies with the money and talent to do so, developing in-house chips helps reduce dependence on outside designers such as Nvidia and Intel while also allowing firms to tailor their hardware specifically to their own AI models, boosting performance and saving on energy costs.

    These in-house AI chips that Google and Meta just announced pose one of the first real challenges to Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI hardware market. Nvidia controls more than 90% of the AI chips market, and demand for its industry-leading semiconductors is only increasing. But if Nvidia’s biggest customers start making their own chips instead, its soaring share price, up 87% since the start of the year, could suffer.

    “From Meta’s point of view … it gives them a bargaining tool with Nvidia,” Edward Wilford, an analyst at tech consultancy Omdia, told Fortune. “It lets Nvidia know that they’re not exclusive, [and] that they have other options. It’s hardware optimized for the AI that they are developing.”

    Why does AI need new chips? 

    AI models require massive amounts of computing power because of the huge amount of data required to train the large language models behind them. Conventional computer chips simply aren’t capable of processing the trillions of data points AI models are built upon, which has spawned a market for AI-specific computer chips, often called “cutting-edge” chips because they’re the most powerful devices on the market. 

    Semiconductor giant Nvidia has dominated this nascent market: The wait list for Nvidia’s $30,000 flagship AI chip is months long, and demand has pushed the firm’s share price up almost 90% in the past six months. 

    And rival chipmaker Intel is fighting to stay competitive. It just released its Gaudi 3 AI chip to compete directly with Nvidia. AI developers—from Google and Microsoft down to small startups—are all competing for scarce AI chips, limited by manufacturing capacity. 

    Why are tech companies starting to make their own chips?

    Both Nvidia and Intel can produce only a limited number of chips because they and the rest of the industry rely on Taiwanese manufacturer TSMC to actually assemble their chip designs. With only one manufacturer solidly in the game, the manufacturing lead time for these cutting-edge chips is multiple months. That’s a key factor that led major players in the AI space, such as Google and Meta, to resort to designing their own chips. Alvin Nguyen, a senior analyst at consulting firm Forrester, told Fortune that chips designed by the likes of Google, Meta, and Amazon won’t be as powerful as Nvidia’s top-of-the-line offerings—but that could benefit the companies in terms of speed. They’ll be able to produce them on less specialized assembly lines with shorter wait times, he said.

    “If you have something that’s 10% less powerful but you can get it now, I’m buying that every day,” Nguyen said.

    Even if the native AI chips Meta and Google are developing are less powerful than Nvidia’s cutting-edge AI chips, they could be better tailored to the company’s specific AI platforms. Ngyuen said that in-house chips designed for a company’s own AI platform could be more efficient and save on costs by eliminating unnecessary functions. 

    “It’s like buying a car. Okay, you need an automatic transmission. But do you need the leather seats, or the heated massage seats?” Ngyuen said.

    “The benefit for us is that we can build a chip that can handle our specific workloads more efficiently,” Melanie Roe, a Meta spokesperson, wrote in an email to Fortune.

    Nvidia’s top-of-the-line chips sell for about $25,000 apiece. They’re extremely powerful tools, and they’re designed to be good at a wide range of applications, from training AI chatbots to generating images to developing recommendation algorithms such as the ones on TikTok and Instagram. That means a slightly less powerful, but more tailored chip could be a better fit for a company such as Meta, for example—which has invested in AI primarily for its recommendation algorithms, not consumer-facing chatbots.

    “The Nvidia GPUs are excellent in AI data centers, but they are general purpose,” Brian Colello, equity research lead at investment research firm Morningstar, told Fortune. “There are likely certain workloads and certain models where a custom chip might be even better.”

    The trillion-dollar question

    Ngyuen said that more specialized in-house chips could have added benefits by virtue of their ability to integrate into existing data centers. Nvidia chips consume a lot of power, and they give off a lot of heat and noise—so much so that tech companies may be forced to redesign or move their data centers to integrate soundproofing and liquid cooling. Less powerful native chips, which consume less energy and release less heat, could solve that problem.

    AI chips developed by Meta and Google are long-term bets. Ngyuen estimated that these chips took roughly a year and a half to develop, and it’ll likely be months before they’re implemented at a large scale. For the foreseeable future, the entire AI world will continue to depend heavily on Nvidia (and, to a lesser extent, Intel) for its computing hardware needs. Indeed, Mark Zuckerberg recently announced that Meta was on track to own 350,000 Nvidia chips by the end of this year (the company’s set to spend around $18 billion on chips by then.) But movement away from outsourcing computing power and toward native chip design could loosen Nvidia’s chokehold on the market.

    “The trillion-dollar question for Nvidia’s valuation is the threat of these in-house chips,” Colello said. “If these in-house chips significantly reduce the reliance on Nvidia, there’s probably downside to Nvidia’s stock from here. This development is not surprising, but the execution of it over the next few years is the key valuation question in our mind.”

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    Dylan Sloan

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  • Economy be damned: Your workers still expect a hefty raise this year

    Economy be damned: Your workers still expect a hefty raise this year

    Sixty percent of organizations are now sharing salary ranges on their job listings, according to the 2024 Compensation Best Practices Report from compensation software firm Payscale. That’s a 15% year-over-year jump. The biggest challenge for companies today, per the Seattle-based firm’s report, is compensation. Namely: Despite a tight job market and record-high inflation, workers are still gunning for better and better pay. That concern comes ahead of recruiting, retention and engagement for their employers. 

    “While the economy may be in flux, employee expectations have not swayed,” Payscale’s chief people officer Lexi Clarke wrote in the report, which surveyed nearly 6,000 HR company managers. “Transparent pay practices and meaningful raises are now table stakes to attract and retain top talent, but many organizations are falling behind as legislation is only accelerating.” 

    Half of companies lack a compensation strategy or firm messaging on the reasoning behind their pay, which is a problem, because employee engagement “hinges on workers understanding the ‘what’ and ‘why’” behind their salaries, Clarke said. 

    Even worse, despite the pronounced desire for better compensation, fewer organizations are planning on shelling out. (Seventy-nine percent said they plan on giving raises, against last year’s 86%.) On average, companies are planning for a 4.5% base pay increase; last year’s average was 4.8%.  

    Maybe companies have reason not to sweat: Last year’s rate of reported voluntary turnover was 21%, Payscale found, a 4% year-over-year drop. That’s all the evidence bosses need that it’s an employer’s market, and they can probably get away with being less generous.

    In direct response to the pay-transparency boom, more and more workers are asking questions about their pay, companies told Payscale. That’s led, predictably, to some unrest. 

    Fourteen percent of companies say some of their workers have left because they saw an ad for a similar position offering higher pay elsewhere—and 11% saw higher paying roles listed within the company itself. Indeed, pay transparency can be a double-edged sword, but the risks of bad feelings are considerably lower if companies prioritize fairness to begin with.

    The best of the rest

    When it comes to the three pillars of workplace future-proofing—artificial intelligence, skills-based hiring, and flexible work—trying to stave off the inevitable is never a sustainable approach, and Payscale’s findings confirm it. (“If we were to capture how to approach 2024 in one phrase, it might be ‘cautious optimism,’” Payscale’s research team wrote.)

    Each of those three pillars come back to fairness and equity, and each, when executed correctly, can make workplaces fairer places to be. 

    “Fair pay is the bedrock of compensation strategy, yet alarmingly, more than a quarter of employers are not proactive about correcting pay disparities,” Ruth Thomas, a pay equity strategist at Payscale, wrote in the report. “We’re seeing forward-thinking companies, on the other hand, make adjustments for external and internal pay equity, pay compression, and competitive skills—while diversifying their workforce by removing barriers to entry like degree requirements.”

    Just shy of half (49%) of HR leaders are optimistic about AI in their workplace; their top concern is that AI would stand to worsen existing biases rather than mitigate them. Just 7% of HR leaders would feel completely comfortable letting AI carry out pay-related decisions.

    On the skills front, over a third (34%) have removed college-degree requirements from their salaried job postings. Just 22% of firms say a college degree is a requirement for all of their salaried positions this year—a sizable improvement, and part of a rapidly building skills-first wave.

    Then there’s remote work, which is considerably less of a threat than most bosses may fear. Just 11% of the employers Payscale surveyed are fully remote—the same share as last year. But there’s still lessons to be learned among that small group: The voluntary turnover rate at fully remote companies is 13%, compared to 16% at hybrid workplaces and 30% for fully in-person companies. 

    It’s well known that replacing a strong performer is harder (and costlier) work than paying them what they want, so the Payscale report takeaway for employers might be two-fold: Pay your workers above market rate, and if they want to, let them work from home.

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    Jane Thier

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  • How Elon Musk’s New Grok AI Stacks Up Against Competitors | Entrepreneur

    How Elon Musk’s New Grok AI Stacks Up Against Competitors | Entrepreneur

    Nearly two weeks after Elon Musk’s xAI startup opened up the AI model behind Grok to the public, its AI chatbot is set to get an upgrade.

    The company announced Grok-1.5 on Thursday and claimed that its latest model can understand longer documents, handle more complex prompts, and perform more advanced reasoning.

    While Grok-1.5 appears to be a step up from the original 1.0 with improvements in coding and math skills, its announcement post shows that it still lags behind Google’s Gemini Pro 1.5 AI, OpenAI’s GPT-4, and Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus in some benchmark tests, while outperforming OpenAI on one key HumanEval test.

    Related: Meet Grok: Elon Musk Unveils ‘Spicy’ AI Chatbot Riddled With ‘Sarcasm’ and ‘Humor’

    Grok-1.5 scored higher than GPT-4 on the HumanEval benchmark, which consists of 164 challenging programming problems not included in the AI model’s training data. GPT-4 had a score of 67% and Gemini Pro 1.5 scored 71.9%, while Grok-1.5 received 74.1%.

    Elon Musk’s xAI company is set to release a new version of the Grok AI chatbot, a ChatGPT competitor. Photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

    With a score of 81.3% on the MMLU test, which covers knowledge of 57 subjects from an elementary to an advanced level, Grok-1.5 performed close to Google Gemini’s score (83.7%).

    It also scored close to GPT-4’s score of 52.9% with a score of 50.6% on the MATH test, a benchmark that covers grade school to high school math competition problems.

    Related: Elon Musk Sues ChatGPT-Maker OpenAI, Accuses the Company of Working to ‘Maximize Profits For Microsoft, Rather Than For the Benefit of Humanity’

    Musk stated in a Friday social media post that Grok 1.5 should be available on X, formerly Twitter, by next week.

    The X owner has high expectations for the next generation of Grok, writing that the next step after Grok-1.5 will outperform the AI currently available “on all metrics.” Grok 2 is “in training now,” he wrote in the post.

    Grok AI is currently only available to those with a $16 a month or higher Premium+ subscription on X.

    Musk sued OpenAI, a competitor of xAI, earlier this month and asked for a court ruling that would force OpenAI to make the research and technology behind its AI public.

    Sherin Shibu

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  • Leading China VC Kai-Fu Lee warns an investor reckoning is coming for unprofitable AI companies

    Leading China VC Kai-Fu Lee warns an investor reckoning is coming for unprofitable AI companies

    The halcyon days where venture capitalists were content forking over billions to the latest AI startup, as researchers burned through cash with little to show for it, may be all but over. A “reckoning” is coming soon for AI companies that fail to turn a profit as the new technology matures, Kai-Fu Lee, chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures, said at the Fortune Innovation forum in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

    Lee said too many large language model (LLM) startups focus on striving for breakthrough advances and too little on commercializing their work. “A lot of the LLM companies out there are run by researchers who care only about making a great model,” he said in a conversation with Fortune editor-in-chief Alyson Shontell. “That science fair phase needs to end.”

    If there’s one aspect the three leading U.S. megacap tech stocks all have in common, it’s that they successfully monetized an emerging technology—Microsoft with the personal computer, Apple and Google with the smartphone.

    A former Google China president and himself a researcher in the field, Lee founded his own AI startup in March 2023. The firm, named 01.AI, was valued at more than $1 billion in less than eight months.

    Lee said his own former employer Google serves as a cautionary tale. Even with the densest network of AI talent found in the world to this day, he argued that Google lost its lead to OpenAI because it squandered time and resources indulging all of its employees’ competing plans.

    “If you have too many researchers and a culture where everybody can try their ideas, you’ll quickly run out of money as a startup,” he said. 

    Huawei’s focus vs Google’s ‘let one hundred flowers bloom’

    Lee argued that in order for his company to one day count among the world leaders in the field, it needs to be brutally efficient with every dollar it spends.

    On Wednesday, the AI expert pointed to Huawei as an example of how such focus might work in practice. China’s leading telecom equipment maker seized on an obscure advance by Turkish IT researcher Erdal Arıkan, investing its efforts almost exclusively in commercializing his polar code breakthrough. This allowed them to eventually surpass larger western competitors like Ericsson and go on to control the bulk of the 5G mobile networking market.

    “That made all the difference,” Lee said. “We’re taking that same approach to be very, very diligent to save GPU [costs].”

    Thanks to its focus on efficient execution, he believes 01.AI—which publishes all its research on open sites like Hugging Face—has narrowed the gap to American companies like OpenAI from eight years to less than twelve months in just a year’s time.

    AI rivals that instead embrace Google’s strategy of “let one hundred flowers bloom”, as Lee phrased it, would by comparison struggle to reach profitability. 

    “There is a point of reckoning when investors are going to say: What do you have to show for yourself?” said Lee. “What’s your P&L? What’s your revenue? What’s your growth? When do you break even?” 

    If an AI startup doesn’t have a convincing answer, then its “science fair” days are over.

    Christiaan Hetzner

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  • SAG-AFTRA Members Give Near-Unanimous Approval to New TV Animation Contract

    SAG-AFTRA Members Give Near-Unanimous Approval to New TV Animation Contract

    2023 was a labor-heavy year for the entertainment industry thanks to the Hollywood strikes. While actors, writers, and directors now have new deals, other parts of the industry are still working to ensure better conditions and AI safeguards.

    Late Friday night, it was revealed SAG-AFTRA members have fully ratified a new three-year contract for TV animation. It appears to have been a pretty high voter turnout, with 95.52% of those who voted in favor of the conditions. According to SAG, parts of this contract were boosted by the TV/Theatrical contract struck last year, such as AI protections. It’ll go into effect starting July 1 and run through June 30, 2026.

    Key AI points include performers having to give their consent when prompting a genAI system with a specific voice actor’s name. Producers will also have to notify and negotiate with SAG-AFTRA if a synthetic voice is used instead of a voice actor’s, and the previous contract’s “major facial feature” requirement has now been removed. If a performer’s voice has been digitally altered into a foreign language and that performance is used, the actor will be eligible for “all applicable residuals.”

    Outside of AI, minimum wage will increase by 7% (retroactively applied to July 1, 2023), followed by 4% in year two and 3.5% in year three. Changes to SVOD high-budget residuals (both domestic and foreign) have been fully implemented after they were previously secured in SAG-AFTRA’s TV/theatrical agreement last year, and both Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth have been recognized as contractual holidays. Finally, the union can request up to two meetings per year with the AMPTP and studios to discuss paying performers on time.

    “The foundation of this agreement was based on the feedback we got from members who work these contracts, and that remained the negotiating committee’s focus throughout bargaining. We are proud to have delivered an agreement that offers big wins in those areas,” said TV Animation negotiating co-chairs Bob Bergen and David Jolliffe. “This is the first SAG-AFTRA animation voiceover contract with protections against the misuse of artificial intelligence.”

    Added chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, “This contract represents a meaningful step forward in expanding our A.I. protections. The contract provides important new terms in the areas of foreign residuals, high-budget SVOD productions, late payments and much more. I am gratified we were able to achieve these significant gains without the need for a work stoppage.”

    The labor negotiations in entertainment aren’t done yet. SAG-AFTRA is still in talks with video game studios over an agreement for video game voice actors, and organzations like local IATSE groups and the Animation Guild are expected (or currently are) having talks with the AMPTP and studios in the near future.

    You can read the full four-page breakdown of SAG-AFTRA’s new contract here.

    [via The Hollywood Reporter]


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    Justin Carter

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  • Kate Middleton’s Photoshopped family photo and the glaring errors that led to kill notices: ‘Think of it as a Cat. 5 cyclone’

    Kate Middleton’s Photoshopped family photo and the glaring errors that led to kill notices: ‘Think of it as a Cat. 5 cyclone’

    After having been out of the public eye since mid-January, Kate Middleton has fueled new speculation about her whereabouts when Kensington Palace issued a family photo for UK Mother’s Day on Sunday.

    Kensington Palace posted the photograph of the Princess of Wales with her three children (Prince George, 10; Princess Charlotte, 8; and Prince Louis, 5). This was the first photo she had released of herself and her family since undergoing surgery in January. The photo, posted on X and Instagram, was also issued by the major news wire services.

    But they all quickly yanked the image, issuing “kill notices” to its customers. 

    “AP retracted it because closer inspection revealed the source had manipulated the image in a way that did not meet AP’s photo standards,” the Associated Press noted. “For instance, the photo shows an inconsistency in the alignment of Princess Charlotte’s left hand.” Getty Images, AFP and Reuters also pulled the image, noting the same left-hand alignment. 

    While the AP didn’t call it AI manipulation, it’s caused concern among public relations, communications, and journalism professionals about the power this nascent technology can have. 

    “In today’s digital era where AI can seamlessly manipulate visuals, the scrutiny faced by Kate Middleton’s image just highlights the complexities of maintaining authenticity and credibility in the media and what people or organizations put out to the world under scrutiny,” Rebecca May, founder of London-based public relations firm RM Publicity, tells Fortune. It also “signals a turning point in the wider public doubting what they see.”

    Especially coming from an institution recognized worldwide and “trusted family, it naturally raises concerns in the future of trusting authoritative organizations and institutions,” May says.

    Issues with the released image

    On Monday, Britain’s national news agency, PA, said it was also withdrawing the photo. PA said it had asked Kensington Palace for clarification about the image and “in the absence of that clarification, we are killing the image from our picture service.”

    On closer inspection, Princess Charlotte’s left hand appears to jut out of her sleeve at an unnatural angle. Online commentators also noted some potential manipulation around the children’s hair and hands, as well as Kate’s lack of wedding and engagement rings. 

    Shortly after, Kate, 42, personally apologized for the image, saying in a statement, “like many amateur photographers, I do occasionally experiment with editing. I wanted to express my apologies for any confusion the family photograph we shared yesterday caused.” 

    Kensington Palace said it would not release the unedited photograph, according to the AP.

    The botched and supposed Photoshop job by Kate has lit a fire under photo editors amateur to professional, leading them to call out the many recognizable issues with the photo. Many have pointed out that the foliage on the trees isn’t consistent with the current climate in Britain, there aren’t shadows or reflections indicative of a real photo, one of Kate’s hands is blurry, her legs appear to be too short to make sense proportionately… the list goes on. There was a meme tsnuami making fun of the fact that Kate had supposedly Photoshopped the photo—with even the Dublin Airport jumping in on the fun. 

    Many other spectators believe that the photo was AI-generated, although there’s currently no way to confirm that—especially since the palace won’t talk and Kate announced herself that she had been the one to do the “editing.” 

    Either way, photo manipulation is a big deal in the public relations, communications, and journalism industries—and it only makes people fearful of where AI and photo manipulation could go in the future. The AP doesn’t just kill photos or stories for no reason. 

    “So just to be clear here—in the public relations industry, a ‘kill notification’ is the coup de grâce of the media circuit,” journalist Tenille Clarke posted on X. “For AP to issue this update, means that something is TERRIBLY wrong. Think of it as a Cat. 5 cyclone. This is literally a death blow to any press source.”

    Where is Kate Middleton?

    On Monday, The Daily Mail released a photo of Kate and William in the car just hours after she had issued her public apology for the “confusion” about the Mother’s Day photo. William was on the way to Westminster Abbey for the annual Commonwealth Day service, but Kate was heading to a “private appointment,” according to The Daily Mail.

    But the photographic debacle on Sunday only fueled rumors about Kate’s whereabouts. Since Kensington Palace issued a statement in mid-January that the princess would be on leave due to “planned abdominal surgery” until after Easter (the last weekend of March), controversies about Kate’s whereabouts have swirled around the internet and social media. 

    Although the palace set expectations that it would “only provide updates on Her Royal Highness’ progress when there is significant new information to share,” that didn’t satisfy her constituents and other curious folks around the world. Conspiracy theories have been plentiful. About a week ago, a different photo who appeared to be Kate surfaced, albeit a very blurry one taken of her wearing sunglasses in a car with her mother, Carole Middleton. There was also unproven controversy about whether the woman with uncanny likeness to Kate was even her.   

    It’s led royalists, fans, and haters alike to also draw comparisons to Princess Diana’s relationship with the press and her untimely death. Not only has Kate disappeared from the public eye, but there are other rumors about her relationship with William.

    The Kate Middleton conspiracy theories also started up in conjunction with several other tragic events and unfortunate happenings within the royal family. On Feb. 5, Buckingham Palace announced that King Charles had been diagnosed with prostate cancer during a recent hospital procedure for “benign prostate enlargement.” Interestingly enough, Charles chose to be forthright about his diagnosis while Kensington Palace has been reluctant to share the details of Kate’s abdominal surgery. 

    “His Majesty has chosen to share his diagnosis to prevent speculation and in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer,” Buckingham Palance said in a statement.

    Also in late February, Thomas Kingston, a British financier, former boyfriend of Kate’s sister Pippa Middleton, and former husband of Lady Gabriella (the daughter of Prince and Princess Michael of Kent), died of a gunshot wound to the head at the age of 45.

    So far, the royal family’s attempts to address the concerns of a curious public have backfired and let to even more speculation.

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    Sydney Lake, Irina Ivanova

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  • Reddit aims to raise up to $748 million in high-profile IPO that other ventures—and members of the subreddit WallStreetBets—will watch closely

    Reddit aims to raise up to $748 million in high-profile IPO that other ventures—and members of the subreddit WallStreetBets—will watch closely

    Reddit Inc. and its investors are seeking to raise as much as $748 million in what would be one of the biggest initial public offerings so far this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The social media platform and some of its current shareholders plan a sale of 22 million shares for $31 to $34 each, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information wasn’t public yet. The company was seeking a valuation of as much as $6.5 billion in the listing, Bloomberg News has reported.

    The people said the company is setting aside about 1.76 million shares in the IPO to be bought by users and moderators who created accounts before Jan. 1. Those shares won’t be subject to a lockup period, meaning the owners can sell them on the opening day of trading, according to Reddit’s filing in February with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

    A representative for Reddit declined to comment.

    Reddit’s Valuation

    Reddit’s more than two-year slog to listing reflects the ups and downs of the market, beginning with its initial confidential filing in 2021, when IPOs on US exchanges set an an all-time record of $339 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Reddit raised funds that year valuing it at $10 billion, and Bloomberg News reported the following year that it could be valued at as much as $15 billion in an IPO.

    Meanwhile, IPOs in the US tumbled, reaching only $26 billion last year, the data show. In January, Bloomberg News reported that Reddit was weighing feedback from early meetings with potential IPO investors that it should consider a valuation of at least $5 billion.

    The company is a high-profile addition to the year’s roster of newly and soon-to-be public companies. The biggest of those listings was the $1.57 billion offering by Amer Sports Inc. in January. Astera Labs Inc., a software maker focused on artificial intelligence, said in a filing Friday that it would seek up to $534 million in its IPO, which will likely proceed Reddit’s.

    Read More: Intel-Backed Astera Seeks $534 Million in IPO With AI Appeal

    Reddit’s listing will be watched closely by IPO candidates such as Microsoft Corp.-backed data security start up Rubrik Inc. and health-care payments company Waystar Technologies Inc. Their deliberations come after a quartet of US listings led by semiconductor designer Arm Holdings Plc’s $5.23 billion offering in September failed to ignite a lasting rebound in the market.

    Shrinking Losses

    Founded in 2005, Reddit averaged 73.1 million daily active unique visitors in the fourth quarter, according to its February filing. The company reported a net loss of $91 million on revenue of $804 million in 2023, compared with a net loss of about $159 million on revenue of $667 million a year earlier.

    Reddit’s largest shareholder is Advance Magazine Publishers Inc., part of the Newhouse family publishing empire that owns Conde Nast, which bought Reddit in 2006 and spun it out in 2011.

    Reddit said its millions of loyal users and moderators pose risks as well as a benefit for the company. Redditors have a historically combative relationship with the site, launching revolts over everything from racism on the platform to executives’ staffing decisions.

    Meme Stocks

    Thousands of members of the WallStreetBets forum — which boasts around 15 million users and helped popularize meme stocks like GameStop Corp. — voted to boost a forum post about shorting Reddit’s stock when it begins trading. Their reasons varied from the company’s lack of profitability to competitive concerns.

    The IPO is being led by Morgan StanleyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., according to Reddit’s filing. The company plans for its shares to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RDDT.

    Reddit co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Steven Huffman said in a signed letter included in the filing that the company has many opportunities to grow both the platform and the business.

    “Advertising is our first business, and advertisers of all sizes have discovered that Reddit is a great place to find high-intent customers that they aren’t able to reach elsewhere,” Huffman said. “Advertising on Reddit is rapidly evolving, and we are still in the early phases of growing this business.”

    AI Licensing

    Reddit said it’s in the early stages of allowing third parties to license access to data on the platform, including to train artificial intelligence models. The company said that in January it entered into data licensing arrangements with an aggregate contract value of $203 million and terms ranging from two to three years. It expects a minimum of $66.4 million of revenue from those agreements this year, according to the filing.

    Reddit also has announced a deal with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, allowing Google’s AI products to use Reddit data to improve their technology. Large language models often need vast troves of human-generated content to improve.

    Huffman owns shares giving him 3.5% of the voting power. That includes Class B shares that will have 10 votes each compared with one each for the Class A shares to be sold in the IPO, the filing shows. Huffman also has a voting proxy agreement with Advance.

    Other large shareholders include Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Wong, as well as FMR LLC and entities affiliated with OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman, Tencent Holdings Ltd., Vy Capital and Quiet Capital and Tacit Capital, according to the filing.

    Huffman’s fellow co-founder, venture capitalist Alexis Ohanian, isn’t listed among the investors with stakes of 5% or more and isn’t named elsewhere in the filing.

    — With assistance from Priya Anand, Ryan Gould, and Katie Roof

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      Amy Or, Bloomberg

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    1. Forget the Turing Test. AI needs to pass the Summer Camp Test before it can take over the world

      Forget the Turing Test. AI needs to pass the Summer Camp Test before it can take over the world

      As I type this, just one browser tab over is a menacing spreadsheet. Impossibly long, it’s crammed with numbers and notes. I’m dreading returning to it–and wondering if I have the resolve to untangle the logic and probability problems within.

      I’m a senior advisor for artificial intelligence (AI) at Mozilla and VP of AI and machine learning at Workday. But this spreadsheet has nothing to do with my day jobs, or even computer science. I’m doing something a bit more difficult: Signing my three kids under 10 up for summer camp.

      It’s an incredibly complicated, convoluted, and time-consuming process. Parents often need to begin six months in advance–when we’re just getting our first snow storms here in Boston. And even then, it’s challenging: Earlier today I was placed in a 47-minute digital queue just to access a registration website. So why don’t I simply outsource this to an AI assistant?

      I can’t. And that should tell you something about the hype you hear about AI–especially the consumer-facing variety.

      About a year ago, when ChatGPT launched, AI came close to passing the Turing Test, the famous thought experiment devised by English mathematician Alan Turing in 1950. If AI could converse in a manner indistinguishable from a human, Turing said, it would truly be “intelligent.”

      Not long after this milestone came the hype. Tech leaders sounded off not only on AI’s unlimited potential but also its existential danger. Now that we have intelligent machines among us, they argued, we are just a few lines of code from utopia–or dystopia.

      In reality, that’s not the case.

      Tools like ChatGPT and the large language models (LLMs) that power them are an impressive feat of computer science. They can be incredibly useful, too. But all-powerful? Just ask any harried parent trying to get a head start on summer camp registration. 

      As many parents know, figuring out a schedule for the eight weeks that school is out is an odyssey. You need to find the right programs, at the right times, in the right places, at the right price. And those are just the basic logistics. Then come the deeper questions: Where are the kids’ friends going? Is the camp’s vibe right? Is admission competitive? Can we carpool? How much sunblock is required?

      Just last week, Boston Globe correspondent Kara Baskin detailed this challenge perfectly in her column titled “Parents, prepare for battle: A memo from your favorite cutthroat Boston summer camps.”

      Right now, this odyssey can’t be outsourced to the AI assistants on the market. It still takes a human being to navigate the quantitative and qualitative complexities of summertime extracurriculars. Even Sissie Hsiao, Google VP and General Manager for Google Assistant and Bard, has lamented AI’s inability to solve the complications of summer camp registration.

      That’s lesson number one: AI isn’t about to take over the world; it can’t even solve summer camp. So take AI futurist doomsday hysteria with a grain of salt. Let’s worry when AI passes the Summer Camp Test, not the Turing Test.

      Often, AI hype claims the tech will level the playing field, eliminating disparities that have long plagued society. Yet AI assistants are being tailored for the people who need them least: professionals ensconced in the corporate realm.

      Growing up, my mom–who had limited English, limited tech literacy, and a job that paid less than minimum wage–could have really benefited from an AI assistant when navigating things like summer camp registration. She didn’t have 47 minutes to wait in a digital queue. But tools like ChatGPT still aren’t advanced enough to untangle the actual, hard problems for people with less means and access.

      The Summer Camp Test hints at what we need more of in AI: Systems built to solve real problems, from the mundane (like summer camp logistics) to the game-changing (like novel pharmaceutical research). What we don’t need? More hype about omnipotent AI.

      Kathy Pham is a computer scientist, senior advisor at Mozilla, VP of AI and Machine Learning at Workday, and a visiting lecturer at Harvard Business School. Opinions here are not representative of any employers, and only of her most critical role as a parent.

      More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

      The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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      Kathy Pham

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