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Tag: 2024 election

  • Could a Democrat Beat Rick Scott in Florida’s US Senate Race?

    Could a Democrat Beat Rick Scott in Florida’s US Senate Race?

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    When Senator Joe Manchin announced that he wouldn’t seek reelection in West Virginia, Democrats’ uphill battle to maintain their Senate majority in 2024 became steeper. Manchin has long been viewed as the only Democrat who could win in deep red West Virginia—a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 40 points in the last presidential race. The onus on the party now? “You got to go find a state” to flip a seat in, one Democratic strategist told me, describing the new world status. More pointedly, the party needs to widen its aperture beyond states Joe Biden carried in 2020.

    Thus, Democrats seem to have shifted their focus to Florida.

    Among the political chattering class, Rick Scott is viewed as one of the more vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Spurned by the Republican establishment and deemed one of the least popular Florida politicians among voters in the state, Scott presents as a reasonable target on paper. He’s also only won races on the margins. In the 2018 Senate race, he beat Democrat Bill Nelson with a result of just 50.1% to 49.9%. In his first gubernatorial bid, Scott won with just 48.9% of the vote to Democrat Alex Sink’s 47.7%. In seeking reelection in 2014, Scott eked out a victory for Florida governor over Democrat Charlie Crist by an even smaller margin, 48.2% to 47.1%. But a win is a win, and winning three statewide races in Florida is nothing to scoff at. “I do think Scott, to give him credit, is an underrated political figure,” Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who serves as CEO of the Biden-supporting PAC Unite the Country, told me. He added that while Scott is often “discounted because of his personality,” he has “proven that he’s got the discipline to stay on message.”

    Then there is the matter of Scott’s pocketbook. One of the wealthiest members of the Senate, Scott has shown that he has no qualms about dipping into his personal fortune to fund his political ambitions; in 2018, he dumped nearly $64 million of his own money into his Senate bid to eke out a razor-thin victory. And in Florida, one of the most costly states in which to run a campaign, money matters. When Michigan senator Gary Peters, who is running Senate Democrats’ campaign arm this cycle, put targets on the backs of Scott and Texas senator Ted Cruz—saying the two lawmakers were “not strong in their states”—Scott shot back defiantly. “I wouldn’t want to run against me,” he told CNN.

    Democrats insist, however, that they have found the perfect foil to Scott in former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. “She’s probably as striking a contrast to Rick Scott as you could possibly get,” said Jim Margolis, a Democratic media consultant working on Powell’s campaign, in an interview with VF. “She is the anti–Rick Scott.” And Democrats intend to turn the campaign into an exercise in contrasts: Whereas Scott is one of the wealthiest members of the US Senate, Mucarsel-Powell is an immigrant who worked at a donut shop for minimum wage as a young teen in America; while Scott arguably made himself the face of the Republican Party’s effort to gut entitlement programs, Mucarsel-Powell wrote the bill in the US House to expand Medicare; and as Scott expressed support for federal abortion restrictions and backed Florida’s six-week ban, Mucarsel-Powell continued to be an outspoken advocate for reproductive rights.

    Democrats hope that Mucarsel-Powell is the right messenger for the moment. With the candidate being a Spanish-fluent Latina woman running for US Senate in Florida, Democrats argue that she is uniquely positioned to win back the support of the state’s Hispanic community, which the Democratic Party has bled in recent cycles. “Can Debbie find the money to be competitive, and can she change the numbers among Hispanics? I think the more that she can do [that], the more the money’s going to come,” said Schale, who worked on Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns in Florida. “I definitely think Florida’s trended Republican—I’m not an idiot. But I don’t think it’s gone from a state that Obama won by three or four points, or a state that was basically a dead tie five years ago in the governor’s race, to a 20-point Republican state overnight. It hasn’t happened. And a lot of that top of the ticket has been impacted by the fact that we’re doing terrible with Hispanics here.” 

    Early polling shows that Mucarsel-Powell might be the right candidate to change Democrats’ luck in Florida. According to a poll of likely general election voters in the state, commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and conducted by the Global Strategy Group in July, 62% of Latino voters find Scott appealing, while 79% of Latino voters find Mucarsel-Powell appealing. Notably, Mucarsel-Powell also outperformed President Biden by six points in Florida in her 2020 run for the US House (though she ultimately lost)—suggesting that voters could split their ticket in 2024 to send her to the Senate, even if they don’t vote for the president.

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    Abigail Tracy

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  • Colorado Secretary Of State ‘Extremely Concerned’ About Pro-Trump Violence

    Colorado Secretary Of State ‘Extremely Concerned’ About Pro-Trump Violence

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    Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold said Wednesday she is “extremely concerned” about fanatical supporters of Donald Trump becoming violent in response to the state Supreme Court ruling that Trump is ineligible to appear on Colorado’s 2024 presidential primary ballot.

    “I’ve been concerned about violence and threats of violence since Donald Trump incited the insurrection,” Griswold, who has been Colorado’s Democratic secretary of state since 2019, said in an interview. “I’ve received hundreds if not thousands of threats at this point.”

    She’s faced an astounding uptick in threats amid the lawsuit over Trump’s eligibility to appear on the state ballot, even though she has nothing to do with it. The case, which was brought in September by the group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, was filed by six unaffiliated and Republican voters in Colorado.

    “I filed it because I’m the secretary of state. I did not bring this case,” Griswold said. “Within three weeks of it being filed, I received 64 death threats and over 900 non-lethal threats of abuse. I stopped counting after that.”

    “So yes, I’m extremely concerned,” she added. “It just underlines that Donald Trump is a major threat to American democracy, elections and stability. He uses threats and intimidation against his political opponents. When he doesn’t win elections, he tries to steal them. He is a dangerous leader for this country.”

    “I stopped counting,” Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold said of the death threats she’s gotten related to the lawsuit over whether Donald Trump is disqualified from being on the state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot.

    Griswold is waiting to see what happens next in the lawsuit before proceeding with certifying the state’s ballots. The Colorado Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Trump is disqualified from appearing on the state ballot because he incited an insurrection and violated the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. Trump’s campaign has vowed to appeal the decision with the U.S. Supreme Court, which has until Jan. 4 to weigh in, per the Colorado court’s ruling.

    Griswold emphasized that she’ll follow whatever court decision is in place when it is time to certify ballots. Her statutory deadline is Jan. 5, but there are other steps that happen before the ballots are printed, she said, so there is a little wiggle room to accommodate for more court decisions. Regardless of what the U.S. Supreme Court does or doesn’t do, she said Colorado voters can rest assured their elections will be on track and play out fine.

    “I think we’ll have a good election, just like normal,” Griswold said.

    For the moment, though, Trump is disqualified from being on the ballot, and Griswold says she agrees with the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision.

    “The provision in the Constitution to stop insurrectionists from holding office is there for a reason,” she said. “Trump incited the insurrection. There shouldn’t be a loophole that allows a president to violate the oath of office and be on the ballot again.”

    Asked if she worries about her safety as she openly condemns Trump, the Colorado secretary of state conceded that the hardest part of her job has been the “threat atmosphere.” She noted that two men have been arrested and found guilty of threatening her in the past two years.

    Still, Griswold said she refuses to give in to extremists.

    “I will not be intimidated,” she said. “We cannot allow these people trying to steal elections and using rhetoric to incite violence… to not be opposed with the truth. I’ll be as smart as possible with my security issues, but I am not going to be intimidated by Donald Trump or anybody else on the MAGA right.”

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  • Why Trump’s Legal Cases Are Irresistible for Everyone but the Biden Campaign

    Why Trump’s Legal Cases Are Irresistible for Everyone but the Biden Campaign

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    Donald Trump is many things, and almost all of them are bad. But he is an unparalleled content provider. His New Year’s gift to the news media is the unprecedented spectacle of a former president being pursued by four prosecutors in five cases, with Trump facing 91 federal and state criminal charges, ranging from obstruction to falsifying business records, as well as civil fraud allegations and the Colorado Supreme Court ruling disqualifying him from the state’s 2024 primary ballot (maybe). That list doesn’t even include the ancillary legal action, such as the ongoing meltdown of Rudy Giuliani. It all makes for irresistible reporting, reading, and viewing.

    Curiously, though, one audience finds the “Perils of Trump” show entirely resistible—and it’s the audience that arguably stands to gain the most from any Trump conviction. President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is keeping an eye on the court proceedings, of course, but hopes the legal drama doesn’t obscure the more important narrative. “This isn’t an episode of Law & Order,” one Biden insider says. “Trump needs to be treated as a candidate, not a defendant.”

    It’s a fair point and a logical perspective from an opposing campaign. The Trump prosecutions are beyond the control of Biden’s team, no matter how many conspiracy theories Kentucky Republican congressman James Comer spouts. The outcomes of the cases in New York, Florida, Georgia, and Washington, DC, are hardly predictable. Trump has pleaded not guilty to everything on the long list of charges:

    New York

    • Corporate financial fraud, a civil case prosecuted by state attorney general Letitia James
    • Falsifying business records over a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels, prosecuted by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg

    Florida

    • Wrongful possession of classified government documents, prosecuted by DOJ special counsel Jack Smith

    Georgia

    • Election interference, including pressuring a state official to “find” 11,780 votes, prosecuted by Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis

    Washington, DC

    • Election interference, including inciting the violent January 6 attack on the Capitol, prosecuted by Smith

    Also unknowable is the court timetable. Trump continues to do everything he possibly can, including filing multiple appeals, to stall any trials until after next November. But last week Smith threw an unexpected wrinkle into the situation, petitioning the Supreme Court to bypass a lower court and rule on Trump’s claim of executive immunity. “Not only don’t we know what any verdicts might turn out to be, but the timing of when they arrive would be crucial,” a top national Democratic strategist says. “Imagine if Trump were to be acquitted in October. What would that do to his momentum?”

    The more optimistic view for Democrats is that one or more convictions would sway a meaningful number of swing voters—if not in Biden’s favor, then at least away from Trump. There is some support for this line of thinking: A late-October New York Times poll of registered voters in six battleground states showed a potentially massive nine-point drop in support if Trump is found guilty. Other polls asked similar questions and found varying levels of damage to Trump.

    Trump’s legal vulnerabilities were never central to Biden’s strategy. But they have been shrinking in significance as the dispositions remain elusive and the election calendar gets shorter. Instead, the campaign is focused on sharpening its attacks on Trump, who it has always presumed will be the Republican nominee. Making those arguments stick will require creating emotionally and materially relevant messaging for voters. “Coverage of any trials does not help make the case that he’s a terrible human being—that’s already baked in for a lot of voters,” says Cornell Belcher, a Democratic strategist who worked on both of Barack Obama’s winning presidential runs. “We know he’s unethical—but is he an existential threat to you?”

    Project 2025, the blueprint for Trump’s presidency developed by his right-wing allies, contains plenty of fodder for Democrats. There’s also the bile coming out of Trump’s mouth, including calling his political opponents “vermin,” praising authoritarian leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, and recently vowing to be a dictator on “day one.” Biden and his allies are likely to spend nearly a billion dollars ahead of the 2024 general election, reminding people that Trump and the Republicans want to further restrict access to abortion, deport tens of thousands of migrants, and dismantle major branches of government. While a spring, summer, and fall devoted to prosecutors airing evidence against Trump could provide marginal help to Biden’s argument that the former president is a threat to democracy, a downside looms. Nonstop coverage of Trump’s trials could suck the air out of the political room—suffocating any positive story Biden will try to tell, and distracting the media and voters from the dangers of a possible Trump second term.

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    Chris Smith

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  • ‘He Lost’: Conservative Legal Icon, Ex-DOJ Official On ‘Masterful’ Colorado Trump Ruling

    ‘He Lost’: Conservative Legal Icon, Ex-DOJ Official On ‘Masterful’ Colorado Trump Ruling

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    J. Michael Luttig said the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to boot Trump from the ballot will “stand the test of time.” Neil Katyal said Trump had had his shot.

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  • Trump’s taking his anger out on Texas

    Trump’s taking his anger out on Texas

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    Former President Donald Trump—the current front-runner for the next Republican presidential nomination—has directed attacks at two prominent GOP Texas lawmakers during the past day, including recent ally Senator Ted Cruz.

    In a message posted just after midnight on Truth Social, Trump resurfaced an old nickname for Cruz—”Lyin’ Ted”—that the former president used repeatedly during his 2016 campaign when the two went head-to-head in the GOP primaries. Trump’s jibe at Cruz followed his usual attacks at Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the former president’s closest competitor for the 2024 Republican nomination, who recently lost a top strategist at his super PAC Never Back Down (NBD), Jeff Roe.

    Tuesday’s attacks also followed closely after Trump took shots at Texas Representative Chip Roy, who has endorsed DeSantis for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination and went against Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. In a Truth Social message on late Monday, Trump asked if “any smart and energetic Republican” has decided to run against Roy, who Trump called “very beatable.”

    Former President Donald Trump (left) and Texas Senator Ted Cruz listen to the national anthem before the start of the 2016 Presidential Primary Debate on the campus of the University of Miami on March 10, 2016 in Coral Gables, Florida. Trump resurfaced an old attack against Cruz on social media Tuesday.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    During his Tuesday post attacking Cruz, Trump wrote that “the Ron DeSanctimonious ‘team’ of misfits and grifters has largely quit his campaign to go on to greener pastures. It has been a terrible experience for them as they have watched their candidate fall violently from the sky like a wounded bird.”

    “Jeff Roe, his ‘chief strategist’ and head of his PAC, ‘Always Back Down,’ after having done major surgery on Ron’s wallet, couldn’t get out of town fast enough,” Trump added. “Now Jeff can spend full time in Texas working with Ted Cruz, formerly known as Lyin’ Ted, who is working hard to get back the magic they had together in 2016!”

    Newsweek reached out to Cruz’s office via email for comment.

    Roe served as Cruz’s campaign manager during the 2016 presidential race, when the Texas lawmaker lost the Republican presidential nomination to Trump. Following the election, however, Trump and Cruz formed a close allyship in Washington, and Cruz was one of the leading voices behind the former president’s baseless claims of election fraud in 2020, and in 2018 Trump rebranded Cruz as “Beautiful Ted.”

    But amid the 2024 race, a rift has formed again between Trump and Cruz, who has refused to endorse the former president’s reelection campaign over DeSantis.

    Early in his campaign run in March, Trump kicked off his 2024 rally tour with an event in Waco, Texas, during which he took jabs at both Cruz and Texas Governor Greg Abbott for not endorsing his campaign at that time. Abbott has since endorsed Trump’s reelection bid.

    According to the polling group FiveThirtyEight, Trump holds a healthy lead over the rest of the GOP candidates in preliminary polling in Texas. As of Tuesday, 67 percent of voters in the state support the former president on average across the polls reviewed by FiveThirtyEight in October and November. In comparison, DeSantis is polling at 11.8 percent on average.