Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 likely to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael

RACE. BUT FIRST, AT SIX, OUR FIRST WARNING WEATHER TEAM HAS BEEN TRACKING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT THERE. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THIS IS GOING TO GET NAMED, AND WHAT KIND OF IMPACT COULD IT HAVE ON US? WELL, WE’RE GOING TO SEE IT LIKELY GET ITS NAME BY TOMORROW. I’M GOING TO SAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE’LL SEE IT BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. RAFAEL. WE’RE ON OUR R NAMED STORMS, BUT FOR RIGHT NOW, THIS DEPRESSION JUST GOT UPDATED TO A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. AND THAT ALLOWS US TO ISSUE THE WARNINGS OUT A LITTLE BIT EARLIER. WE DO HAVE WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALSO, JAMAICA UNDER THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCH. BUT THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME OUR NEXT HURRICANE AS IT DOES CONTINUE TO GROW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN SPILLING OVER INTO THE GULF. RIGHT NOW, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 35MPH. YOU’RE LIKELY LOOKING AT 35 SAYING, HEY, THAT’S HOW FAST YOU NEED TO BE TO BE A NAMED STORM. BUT WE JUST DON’T HAVE THAT VERTICAL STACKING JUST YET. WE WILL GET THERE, THOUGH. AND HERE’S WHAT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS, THE AIR FORCE MISSION THAT JUST FLEW BY, DID FIND THE FASTEST WINDS WERE UP TO 35MPH, AND ITS PRESSURE DOWN TO 1000 MILLIBARS. NOW, AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT ITS TRACK, LIKELY MOVING OVER JAMAICA BY TUESDAY, EARLY ON AS IT IS A NAMED STORM BY THEN AND THEN ACROSS HAVANA HERE IN CUBA. AND THEN AS IT ENTERS THESE WARMER GULF COAST WATERS, LIKELY GOING TO BECOME A HURRICANE, A CATEGORY ONE WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE, THOUGH, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT BIT OF A WESTERLY PUSH BEFORE IT DOES ENCOUNTER SOME WIND SHEAR. THAT’S GREAT NEWS FOR US, AND WE’LL BREAK IT DOWN WITH FU

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 likely to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael

Updated: 6:16 PM EST Nov 3, 2024

Video above: Latest coverage on the tropicsPotential Tropical Cyclone 18 is a broad area of low pressure in the south central Caribbean Sea.According to the National Hurricane Center, the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael in the next day or two as it moves toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The system is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. However, where the system goes after that is still unclear.Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are investigating the system, according to the NHC.Maximum sustained winds for the system are at 35 mph, while its minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.Active watchesHurricane watch: Cayman IslandsTropical storm warning: Jamaica Formation chance through 48 hours: 90%Formation chance through seven days: 90%Subtropical Storm Patty is the only named storm in the Atlantic Ocean after forming early Saturday morning near the Azores. The NHC is also tracking one other area with a low possibility of development.

ORLANDO, Fla. —

Video above: Latest coverage on the tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is a broad area of low pressure in the south central Caribbean Sea.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael in the next day or two as it moves toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

The system is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. However, where the system goes after that is still unclear.

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are investigating the system, according to the NHC.

Active watches

• Hurricane watch: Cayman Islands
• Tropical storm warning: Jamaica

The following named storm will be Rafael.

Formation chance through 48 hours: 90%

Formation chance through seven days: 90%

Subtropical Storm Patty is the only named storm in the Atlantic Ocean after forming early Saturday morning near the Azores.

The NHC is also tracking one other area with a low possibility of development.