Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress
Causeway
Everett Collection
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Cate Blanchett won her second NYFCC prize for her work in “Tár” from Focus Features. Her first was for “Blue Jasmine” (2013), for which she won her second Academy Award, following her first for “The Aviator” (2004).
By no means does this guarantee her to win as Danielle Deadwyler picked up the Gotham Award for lead performance for “Till.” Though a tiny group of five voters, she got past Blanchett, in addition to Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and even Brendan Fraser (the group went non-gender for its acting categories in 2021).
Also at the Gothams, Michelle Williams received a tribute for her career, which was highlighted by her four previous noms for “Brokeback Mountain” and “Manchester by the Sea.” Her turn as Mitzy, the mother of Sammy in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” could still factor into the discussion.
Jennifer Lawrence also attended the Gothams, presenting the best feature prize to “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which only helps her presence on the circuit. A previous Oscar winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” and with three other nominations for “Winter’s Bone,” “Joy” and “American Hustle,” Hollywood loves her, and she has been charming voters and audiences everywhere to promote “Causeway.” Her, alongside Brian Tyree Henry, could be a surprise contender for their work.
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
2
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
4
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
5
Jennifer Lawrence
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
Next in Line
6
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
7
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8
Margot Robbie
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.
9
Rooney Mara
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
In 2010, the women of an isolated religious community grapple with reconciling their reality with their faith. Based on the novel by Miriam Toews.
10
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
