NOAA updates its Atlantic hurricane season forecast

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most active period in the upcoming months, and NOAA has updated its annual hurricane season outlook. NOAA’s latest forecast is still calling for above normal activity this season.

NOAA’s updated outlook predicts a 50% chance of an above normal season, a 35% chance of a near normal season and a 15% chance of a below normal season. 

NOAA forecasts a likely range of 13 to 18 named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

These are similar numbers to NOAA’s original outlook released in May, but they have been slightly reduced.

Remember, predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is.

NOAA researchers cite a handful of different factors for this year’s forecast, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, ENSO neutral conditions and an active West African Monsoon. “Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions.”

The National Hurricane Center continues to urge advanced preparations for coastal communities before a storm hits.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says, “No two storms are alike; every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.” 

Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.

So far, there have been four named storms this hurricane season.

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