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N.C.’s 2026 economic outlook preview shows strength, economist says

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RALEIGH, N.C. — Last-minute holiday shoppers filed into ABC stores and retail centers across the state Wednesday, many feeling the weight of higher prices as they wrapped up their holiday purchases.

But even as inflation, tariffs and rising insurance rates have strained budgets this year, one economist says North Carolina may be heading into 2026 on stronger footing than many expect.


What You Need To Know

  • The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025, according to new Bureau of Economic Analysis data, driven by consumer spending, exports and government spending
  • Prices also continued rising, with the broad index for gross domestic purchases increasing during the quarter, underscoring the inflation pressures North Carolina families reported during holiday shopping
  • Several key inflation measures are up about a full percentage point year over year, while wages have not kept pace and businesses are passing along higher tariff-related costs to consumers
  • Despite national economic uncertainty, economist Michael Walden says North Carolina remains in a strong position heading into 2026, with the Triangle outperforming state and national trends; his full economic outlook report is expected early next year


“It’s been a tough year for a lot of families,” said Ricky Stevens, who was picking up holiday beverages in Fayetteville. “People stressed out with jobs, short hours, some jobs closing. They want to see their own family and take a social drink or whatever.”

Other shoppers said it’s not just holiday items, but everyday essentials that feel more expensive.

“You get in line and you’re paying like $50 more than you used to,” said Aleisa Washington.

For Steve Stevenson, the strain is part of a longer pattern.

“Things have been kicked down the road for a long time,” he said. “Somebody’s gotta pay the price eventually, and unfortunately, it’s us right now.”

Inflation up, wages lagging behind

A new economic report released this week shows several key inflation measures rising a full percentage point year over year, with wages failing to keep pace, a trend that worries families heading into the new year.

“The way it impacts people is not so much in whether they can buy things, but whether their salaries keep up with those prices,” said Michael Walden, an economist at North Carolina State University. “And we have seen that not happening for a lot of people.”

Tariffs still raising costs for consumers

Walden says another factor affecting household budgets is tariffs on imported goods, including many alcoholic beverages.

“American businesses have been paying these billions of dollars that are going into the tariff fund,” Walden said. “And they’re increasingly passing those on to consumers.”

He noted that the holidays are typically the busiest time of year for alcohol sales, and some shoppers temporarily put aside cost concerns for Christmas and New Year’s celebrations.

“People tend to put those cost concerns aside,” he said. “This is a time for celebration for family, for friends, for the end of the year.”

North Carolina’s economy remains resilient

Despite the challenges, Walden says his early analysis shows North Carolina is in a stronger position than much of the country heading into 2026. He is preparing his annual economic outlook report, which will be released early next year.

“I’ve been doing this for almost 50 years,” he said. “North Carolina always looks better on virtually every metric. And here in the Triangle, probably another step higher than that.”

Walden says the state’s steady population growth, diversified industries and resilient job market continue to set it apart.

“We are in a good place to weather some of these economic challenges here in North Carolina,” he said, “and especially in the Triangle.”

Looking ahead

As families celebrate Christmas and look toward the new year, Walden says cautious optimism may be justified, even with rising prices still affecting the cost of daily life.

His full 2026 economic outlook presentation is expected to be released in the coming weeks.

Follow us on Instagram at spectrumnews1nc for news and other happenings across North Carolina.

 

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Sarah Rudlang

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