The Detroit Lions may be out of the playoff hunt, but Week 18 still matters, especially when it comes to where they’ll land in the 2026 NFL Draft order. Instead of scoreboard watching for postseason positioning, Lions fans are now tracking draft projections, and the latest outlook paints a pretty clear picture.
According to current probability models from the New York Times, Detroit is most likely to land somewhere between picks No. 13 and No. 17, with only slim odds of finishing much higher or lower.
Most Likely Landing Spots
The numbers suggest the Lions are sitting right in the middle of the first round. Here’s how the probabilities shake out entering Week 18:
- No. 13 pick — 23% chance
- No. 14 pick — 25% chance
- No. 15 pick — 10% chance
- No. 16 pick — 19% chance
- No. 17 pick — 18% chance
- No. 18 pick — 4% chance
Anything outside that range is extremely unlikely. Detroit has less than a 1% chance of landing picks No. 11 or No. 12, and zero meaningful path to a top-10 selection.
In short, the Lions are almost locked into that middle-round sweet spot.
Highest and Lowest Possible Outcomes
The projections narrow the window even further:
- Highest possible pick: No. 13 — 23% probability
- Lowest possible pick: No. 18 — 4% probability
So there’s upside to moving slightly higher with the right combination of results…but there’s also a small risk of sliding a couple of spots depending on how Week 18 breaks.
What This Means for Detroit’s Offseason Strategy
Picking in the middle of Round 1 can actually be a win for a team like Detroit:
- It keeps them in range of impact defensive starters or trench upgrades
- It opens flexibility to trade up or trade back
- It allows Brad Holmes and the front office to target value rather than desperation
This is the type of draft slot where playoff-caliber rosters add the missing piece, not start over.
And if the Lions’ recent draft track record tells us anything, it’s that they know how to find talent no matter where they pick on the board.
Bottom Line
Week 18 may not decide playoff fate this year…
…but it will help determine where Detroit begins shaping its 2026 roster.
Right now, all signs point to the Lions landing around pick 13–16, and that’s a range where difference-makers are absolutely still available.
The games may be ending, but the real building season is just getting started.
Don Drysdale
Source link