[ad_1]
Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Sir Keir Starmer’s allies are plotting to stop Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the seat of retiring independent MP Andrew Gwynne as part of an attempt to stage a Westminster comeback and potential leadership bid.
Starmer has long been anxious about the prospect of Burnham returning to the House of Commons as an MP from where he could launch an attempted leadership challenge against the increasingly unpopular prime minister.
But figures on Labour’s ruling national executive committee said the grouping would not allow Burnham on to the shortlist of Labour candidates if there was a by-election in Gwynne’s constituency of Gorton and Denton in Manchester.
The NEC recently changed its rules to require directly elected mayors such as Burnham to seek “express permission” to become a candidate.
Even if the body did not directly block Burnham, he would have to get on to a shortlist picked by a “by-election panel” of three NEC members directly influenced by Labour general secretary Hollie Ridley.
“There is no chance of him going through the panel,” said one member. “Why would they allow someone through whose intent is to destabilise the Labour prime minister?”
Labour figures believe that a significant majority of the NEC — made up of about 40 MPs, union officials and other party figures — are loyal to Starmer and would be reluctant to ease the path for Burnham’s return.
One senior union figure said: “On the current situation, [Burnham] doesn’t get through the NEC.”
It is also thought that he would have to step down as mayor to stand in the by-election, where victory would not be guaranteed.
Gwynne, who was suspended by Labour almost a year ago following leaked WhatsApp messages in which he insulted a constituent, announced on Thursday that he was standing down as an MP for medical reasons.
His decision will mean a by-election will be held in the Greater Manchester seat, which Gwynne won in 2024 with a 13,000-vote majority.
Asked about Gwynne’s plans before his announcement, Burnham said he was “in the dark”, the Local Democracy Reporting Service reported.
Fund managers are wary of Burnham, who has said the government should not be “in hock” to the bond markets, a sentiment he reiterated as recently as this week.
The gilt market weakened on Thursday morning following earlier reports that Gwynne was standing down as investors responded to the growing political risk, pushing the 10-year gilt yield up 0.04 percentage points to 4.50 per cent.
Several high-profile Labour figures are thought to fancy their chances as the next party leader, and, therefore, prime minister, given the party’s huge majority in the House of Commons.
Contenders are likely to include former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and health secretary Wes Streeting, as well as Burnham, who needs to be a serving Labour MP to run for the party’s leadership.
One Starmer loyalist said the NEC would be justified in blocking Burnham from standing in the by-election on the basis that it would result in high costs for Labour in the ensuing battle for the Greater Manchester mayoralty. There would be a high chance of Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK winning that race, they added.
One well-placed Labour figure said a leadership election could be triggered by Burnham’s opponents before he is in a position to stand.
“It’s wrong to think the only thing they can do is keep [Burnham] off the shortlist,” he said of any attempts to block the Greater Manchester mayor’s return.
The prospect of Burnham returning to Westminster would not be universally welcomed by Labour MPs, with many believing the possibility would be a distraction before Scottish, Welsh and local elections in May.
Some also remain nervous about how Burnham might govern, particularly in light of his comments about the bond markets.
On Thursday, he set out in a Guardian article his vision of applying “Manchesterism” across the country with electoral reform, more collaborative politics and “consensus on the public investment needed to free the country from the pernicious pincer movement of the simultaneous cost-of-living and housing crises”.
One Labour MP said: “It won’t necessarily be straightforward for Andy if he goes for it. Reform will put up a good candidate and it would be 100 per cent humiliating if Andy loses there.”
“The last thing the Labour Party needs is more distraction and division from someone who has shown he is only interested in his own title, position and profile,” another Labour MP said.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards has not confirmed what sanction, if any, will be applied to Gwynne.
Additional reporting by Ian Smith
[ad_2]