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Janet Mills chances of beating Susan Collins in Maine, according to polls

Maine Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat, is preparing to launch a challenge to longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins in what is likely to become one of the most closely watched races of the midterms, the Associated Press reported on Friday, citing two people familiar with her plans.

Jordan Wood, a Democrat who announced his Senate campaign earlier this year, reacted to the report in a statement to Newsweek.

“Primaries are an important part of the democratic process because they give voters a real choice for our future. Since launching the campaign, we’ve organized more than 30 events across the state and voters consistently tell me they want an open and vibrant primary process. With so much at stake, Mainers want to decide which candidate can defeat Susan Collins, defend our democracy from Donald Trump, and deliver for working families,” he said.

Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for Collins, Mills and other Senate candidates for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Maine generally leans Democratic, having backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points last November, but Collins has handily won reelection in the past due to her more moderate policy positions and close ties to the state. Democrats, however, believe 2026 has the potential to be her closest race yet as President Donald Trump’s approval slips nationwide, and as he remains unpopular in the Pine Tree State.

National Democrats view Mills, who has also won by wide margins in her two gubernatorial races, as a top recruit for the race. But others are less sold on the idea of her candidacy, believing that other Democrats already in the race such as Graham Platner, whose campaign has garnered nationwide attention, could make for a stronger candidate.

What To Know

Maine is likely a must-win for Democrats hoping to reclaim control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Collins is the only Republican in a Harris-won state up for reelection. Democrats also view an open race in battleground North Carolina as a prime pickup opportunity, but other potential flips would require them to win more conservative territory.

Mills will bring high name recognition into the race, as voters are already familiar with her from her stint as attorney general and governor. She flipped the governor’s office in 2020, winning by about seven points, and won reelection in 2022 by nearly 13 points against former Governor Paul LePage. She is unable to run for reelection due to term limits.

But she may face a competitive primary against Platner, Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban and Wood, the former President of End Citizens United, all of whom have already announced their campaigns.

Polling on the Senate race remains limited despite its importance for the midterms.

Polls have generally found that Mills enjoys stronger approval than Collins.

A University of New Hampshire poll from over the summer found that 14 percent of Mainers view Collins favorably, while 57 percent view her unfavorably. An additional 26 percent were neutral. Meanwhile, 51 percent of Mainers view Mills favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Only 7 percent were neutral on Mills, according to the survey, which surveyed 846 Mainers between June 19 and June 23. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A Pan Atlantic Research poll yielded better results for Collins, finding that 49 percent of Mainers view her favorably and 45 percent view her unfavorable. It found that 52 percent of respondents viewed Mills favorably, while 44 percent viewed her unfavorably. It surveyed 840 likely voters from May 12 to May 26, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Morning Consult found earlier this year that Mills had a net approval rating of +2—making her the least popular Democratic governor in the country—though Collins’ approval was -16. That poll took place from April to June of this year, and the sample sizes varied by state.

Polls in 2020 were notably off in Maine. Although surveys showed former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon with a lead, Collins ended up prevailing with just over 50 percent of the vote.

Mills, viewed as a more centrist Democrat, engaged in a high-profile debate with the White House over Trump’s efforts to deny states funding over transgender athletes, telling him “We’ll see you in court.”

What People Are Saying

Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, wrote on X Thursday: “Graham Platner is a great working class candidate for Senate in Maine who will defeat Susan Collins. It’s disappointing that some Democratic leaders are urging Governor Mills to run. We need to focus on winning that seat & not waste millions on an unnecessary & divisive primary.”

Pollster Adam Carlson wrote on X in August: “Sometimes to take out a modern political anomaly like Susan Collins, you need to try something different Janet Mills has been a good governor, but she’s 77, not especially popular, and has been in politics since 1980 Graham’s background might be unusual, but he’s got the juice.”

Commentator Russel Drew wrote on X on Friday: “We need to see some new, legit polling about #MESEN. The oyster farmer is absolutely an interesting candidate, but Gov. Mills has already won statewide twice. F*** our feelings. Let’s see the data.”

Anna Palmer, CEO of Punchbowl News, said during The Daily Punch podcast: “This is a huge get for Senat Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is on a recruiting tear. But Mills will have to contend with a crowded field of Democratic challengers who didn’t wait to jump in while she made up her mind. This is something that Democrats have been waiting for, and it seemed like she was taking her sweet time to get into the race, and now it is finally here. This could potentially be a problem for Susan Collins.”

What Happens Next?

Mills and other candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters about why they are the best candidate to challenge Collins in the Senate race. Forecasters give Collins an edge—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as leaning Republican.

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