Is TCU trending in the wrong direction in Year 4 of Sonny Dykes era? | Opinion

Goodbye, AT&T Stadium. Hello, Liberty Bowl?

After TCU was dismantled 44-13 by No. 12 BYU on Saturday, the Horned Frogs’ ceiling might be a trip to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, as it’s very possible TCU will finish 6-6 with two more tough games at Houston and hosting Cincinnati to end the regular season.

The Horned Frogs’ performance in Provo was the most disappointing of a season that has already fallen well short of expectations.

It was an opportunity for TCU and head coach Sonny Dykes to secure a marquee victory for the program — a win over a top-15 team on the road would’ve been the Horned Frogs’ biggest victory since the 2022 Fiesta Bowl. Not to mention TCU still was technically in the running for the Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Instead of playing with passion, the Horned Frogs looked detached to start the game, falling behind 17-0 before the offense finally woke up. By that time it was too little too late.

TCU’s defense allowed BYU to score on its first seven possessions, while the offense continued to look like a finesse unit that isn’t built to win on the road or in November.

But if you ask the fan base, the most disappointing thing about Saturday night was how Dykes answered a question from the Star-Telegram.

Sonny Dykes says, ‘People can say what they want to say’

Over the past three seasons, TCU is just 20-15 overall, 12-13 in the Big 12 and 7-9 on the road. This writer asked Dykes what would he say to a fan base that may be growing anxious with the direction of the program?

“I can also sit here and say we’re whatever we are in the last 13 games [9-4],” a frustrated Dykes said. “Or I could sit here and say we are what we are. … People can say what they want to say.”

To be fair, Dykes isn’t wrong, as TCU is 12-5 in its past 17 games. Numbers don’t lie, but they can be manipulated to fit a narrative.

Dykes has won a lot of games at TCU, but when you lose the way the Horned Frogs did against BYU or how they did last week in the fourth quarter against Iowa State, you can’t blame the fan base for responding with an emphatic “So what?” when Dykes mentions TCU’s recent record.

The most notable wins during that stretch came last year against a Texas Tech team that finished 8-5 and this year against SMU, which sits at 7-3 with losses to Baylor and Wake Forest. Those aren’t exactly the type of wins that will fire a fan base up after it got a taste of being near the mountaintop in 2022.

It’s tough to come up with answers on the spot in the aftermath of a defeat like Saturday’s, but it was a missed opportunity for Dykes to speak to fans, especially after he had no problem repeatedly reminding them that the Horned Frogs know how to win and were the winningest team in the Big 12 in recent years after TCU survived against Baylor.

As TCU slips, Texas Tech rises

TCU is just 1-2 since that press conference and could be staring at a four-game losing streak to end a season that was supposed to be the year that the Horned Frogs got back to the Big 12 title game.

It doesn’t help that rival Texas Tech is looking like a juggernaut this season and also recruiting at a level that will likely keep the Red Raiders at the top of the conference.

For many TCU fans, that was what they expected after the Horned Frogs defeated Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl and made the national title game. Whatever momentum was generated from that magical season is gone, and the Horned Frogs seem to be drifting further and further away from the top of the Big 12.

In the 12-team era of the College Football Playoff, that’s increasingly problematic. With increased access to the postseason comes increased expectations.

In the old four-team format, most fans understood just how difficult it was to make the field. But it’s a new reality now.

If you win your league, you’re in the playoff. That has simplified things for every program in the country, and when you’re not competing for a league title, it feels like an empty season.

This was supposed to be TCU’s year

Remember, this isn’t a young TCU team. The offense returned an experienced quarterback in Josh Hoover and one of the nation’s top receivers in Eric McAlister and got offensive lineman Cade Bennett back after a season-ending injury last year.

Despite all the talent, TCU has taken a step back on offense. There’s still no run game, Hoover hasn’t taken the expected leap many anticipated, and the unit as a whole has no identity besides McAlister being elite.

The offense has repeatedly started slow and underperformed on the road. The Horned Frogs have been held scoreless in the first quarter in five of their past six games. When pressed about why he thinks that is the case, Dykes didn’t have an answer.

Dykes is supposed to be an offensive guru. It’s always a troubling sign when a head coach’s specialty begins to underperform.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs returned key leaders in safety Bud Clark and linebacker Namdi Obiazor while also having safety Jamel Johnson and linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr emerge as two of the best at their positions in the conference.

There’s individual talent across the board, but it was jarring to watch BYU play defense compared to TCU. Don’t get me started on how monstrous the Red Raiders’ defense has looked this season.

It’s not a question of talent. Dykes himself said before the season that he felt if the team finished 9-4 it would be a disappointment.

“That’s the standard here, compete for a conference championship and the College Football Playoff,” Dykes said. “We’re at that point as a program where you don’t do that, we don’t see it as a successful year. You look at last year, yeah you won nine games or whatever, but in the last week of the season we weren’t playing for a Big 12 championship.”

If winning nine games would be falling short of the standard, then what is winning six or seven games?

The Horned Frogs are trending in the wrong direction, and it’s on Dykes to turn it around before it’s too late.