Insane Scenario that Results in Detroit Lions Landing No. 12 Pick in 2026 NFL Draft

The Detroit Lions don’t control their draft fate heading into Week 18, but there is a wild, microscopic-odds scenario in which they actually climb all the way up to the No. 12 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And when we say microscopic, we mean it: the New York Times model gives it less than a 1% chance of happening.

Still… it can happen. So let’s walk through the madness.

Step 1 — The Lions Have to Lose

Detroit must drop its regular-season finale:

• Lions at Bears — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET — FOX

That’s the starting point. But things get a whole lot crazier from here.

Step 2 — These Teams Need to Win

Three other games must break Detroit’s way:

• Buccaneers (7-9) BEAT Panthers (8-8) — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET — ABC/ESPN
• Cowboys (7-8-1) BEAT Giants (3-13) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET — FOX
• Falcons (7-9) BEAT (6-10) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET — FOX

Detroit also needs to finish with a weaker strength of schedule than Atlanta, which requires even more help.

Step 3 — The Strength-of-Schedule Tiebreaker Chaos

To win the SOS tiebreaker over the Falcons, the Lions need at least four of the following outcomes (per Tankathon’s rooting guide):

• Colts (8-8) BEAT Texans (11-5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET — CBS
• Vikings (8-8) BEAT Packers (9-6-1) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET — CBS
• Commanders (4-12) BEAT Eagles (11-5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET — CBS
• Raiders (2-14) BEAT Chiefs (6-10) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET — CBS
• Cardinals (3-13) BEAT Rams (11-5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET — FOX

Hit those combinations — and somehow, someway — the Lions slide into the No. 12 slot.

Miss even one? The dream evaporates.

What’s the Worst-Case and Best-Case Outcome?

According to current projections:

• Highest realistic pick: No. 13 (most likely scenario)
• Lowest possible pick: No. 18 (least likely scenario)

Detroit is most commonly projected somewhere in the 13–16 range, but No. 12 remains the absolute chaos outcome.

Bottom Line

Will this actually happen? Almost certainly not.
But it’s the NFL… and weird things happen in Week 18 every single year.

So if you’re scoreboard-watching on Sunday — now you know exactly what to root for!