How Many People Have Been Killed in Iran’s Brutal Protest Crackdown?

Despite the communications blackout, a number of disturbing videos, first-hand accounts, and other reports have emerged from Iran. Taken together, they appear to confirm that at least a few thousand people have been killed. And though there are no verifiable estimates of the death toll thus far, even that lowest estimate would be extraordinary in modern Iran’s history.

Reuters reported Tuesday that according to Iranian government officials, about 2,000 people were killed in the protests, including civilians and security personnel.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says it has confirmed that at least 2,403 protesters have been killed in the 17 days since protests began.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday that according to senior Iranian government officials, the death toll was at least 3,000, but it’s currently impossible to independently verify that:

Human rights groups are struggling to reach their contacts inside Iran and follow the methodology they normally use to verify information but say they have counted more than 500 dead. Multiple American officials say that U.S. intelligence agencies have conservatively estimated that more than 600 protesters have been killed so far. The agencies have noted that both the current protests and the crackdown are far more violent than those in 2022 or other recent uprisings against the government.

A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said about 3,000 people had been killed across the country but sought to shift the blame to “terrorists” fomenting unrest. The figure included hundreds of security officers, he said. Another government official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he had seen an internal report that referred to at least 3,000 dead, and added that the toll could climb.

There are also much higher estimates of the number of dead.

A U.S. official told Axios that Israeli intelligence has assessed that at least 5,000 protesters have been killed.

The editorial board of Iran International, an opposition media organization based in London, said Tuesday that it estimates that at least 12,000 people have been killed, mostly on January 8 and 9. That estimate, the board said, was based on:

… a rigorous, multi-stage process and in accordance with established professional standards – information received from a source close to the Supreme National Security Council; two sources in the presidential office; accounts from several sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the cities of Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Isfahan; testimonies from eyewitnesses and families of those killed; field reports; data linked to medical centers; and information provided by doctors and nurses in various cities.

CBS News also reported on Tuesday that, according to two sources, the death toll was at least 12,000, and as high as 20,000, but it’s not possible to confirm the accuracy of those numbers, either:

A source inside Iran who was able to call out told CBS News on Tuesday that activist groups working to compile a full death toll from the protests, based on reports from medical officials across the country, believed the toll was at least 12,000, and possibly as high as 20,000. The same source said security forces were visiting the many private hospitals across Tehran, threatening staff to hand over the names and addresses of those being treated for injuries sustained in the protests. CBS News has not been able to independently verify the massive death toll indicated by the source, which is some many times larger than the numbers reported by most activist groups independently in recent days — though those groups have always made it clear that their tallies are likely underestimated.

Videos shared from Iran in recent days have seemed to confirm an unprecedented scale of bloodshed. In horrifying footage recorded at a single morgue in Kazhirak, just outside the capital Tehran, hundreds of bodies can be seen lined up on the ground. And there are reports of similar scenes in other cities, as well as multiple reports of hospitals that were overwhelmed by casualties.

Even the lowest estimates at this point would surpass the number of people killed in previous crackdowns on mass protests by the Islamic Republic. According to human-rights organizations, dozens were killed during the Green Movement protests in 2009 and more than 550 during the Mahsa Amini protests in 2022. According to one report, roughly 1,500 Iranians were killed over multiple weeks when the regime crushed the the Bloody November protests in 2019.

It’s also difficult to determine how many people have been injured and how many have been arrested during this new wave of protests. HRANA says it has confirmed that at least 1,134 people have suffered severe injuries, and that more than 18,400 people have been arrested.