His Glory Fading, a Russian Warlord Took One Last Stab at Power

Mr. Prigozhin’s forces captured Bakhmut at the end of May and soon after departed the battlefield, accusing the Russian military of mining the road they used to leave and briefly apprehending a Russian lieutenant colonel on the way out. That left Mr. Prigozhin newly vulnerable. Wagner was no longer needed to finish off a battle that had been played up by the Russian media.

By June, his isolation became palpable.

Mr. Prigozhin signaled a rift with the Ministry of Defense over his military catering contracts, which have helped fuel his wealth and influence for more than a decade. In a publicized letter to Mr. Shoigu dated June 6, Mr. Prigozhin said the food he had supplied to Russian military bases and institutions since 2006 had amounted to a total of 147 billion rubles — $1.74 billion — a figure that is impossible to verify. Now, he complained, “high-level people” were trying to force him to accept companies associated with them as his suppliers. He also said a new system of “loyal suppliers”threatened his cost structure and could deliver a blow to his business reputation.

His desperation seemed to be growing.

On June 10, one of Mr. Shoigu’s deputies announced that all formations fighting outside the Russian military’s formal ranks would need to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry by July 1.

Mr. Prigozhin initially refused, but then Mr. Putin backed Mr. Shoigu’s plan. In the days that followed, Mr. Prigozhin released several audio and video messages showing what appeared to be attempts to reach a deal on his terms.

In one video, published on June 16, he shows himself delivering a “contract” to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, but a receptionist behind a caged booth quickly closes the window in his face.

In the days before he led Saturday’s uprising, Mr. Prigozhin began expressing feelings of resignation, saying that none of the problems plaguing the Russian military would be fixed. He also talked about the nation rising up, saying that Mr. Shoigu should be executed and suggesting that the relatives of those killed in the war would exact their revenge on incompetent officials.

“Their mothers, their wives, their children will come and eat them alive when the time comes,” he said in a June 6 video interview, suggesting there might be a “popular revolt.”

He added, “I can tell you, honestly, I think we have only about two to three months before the executions.”