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The Republican Party has recently suffered a string of bad news in candidate recruitment that could further hamper the party’s sagging odds in the November midterms, with candidates dropping out or getting disqualified from key races.
On Thursday, moderate Republican Karrin Taylor Robson dropped out of Arizona’s toss-up gubernatorial contest, paving the way for Rep. Andy Biggs to win the GOP nomination. Oddly, both were endorsed by President Donald Trump.
A conspiratorial lunatic, Biggs was a key player in Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 election. And he is likely too far-right to win a purple state like Arizona.
In fact, one Republican compared Biggs with Kari Lake, the election-denying former newscaster who lost the gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022, a year that should have been a slam dunk for Republican candidates.
“These three candidates are parroting Kari Lake’s dangerous, election-denying agenda,” Patty Hansen, a Republican and former recorder for Coconino County, told the Arizona Republic, referring to Taylor Robson, Biggs, and Rep. David Schweikert, who is also running for governor.
Indeed, after Taylor Robson announced she was leaving the GOP primary field, political betting markets swung hard toward predicting that Hobbs will win reelection.
Meanwhile, in New Mexico, the only Republican Senate candidate to file for the race was disqualified from the ballot after he did not submit enough signatures on his petition. That means that for the first time ever, Republicans will not field a candidate in the state, which former Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 6 percentage points in 2024.
That paves the way for Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Lujan to run unopposed. Republicans can still organize a write-in campaign, but such an effort, if it materializes, almost certainly won’t succeed.
The recent recruiting failures follow a string of other top-tier Republicans who have either dropped out or refused to run in 2026—a key sign that the GOP knows the environment in November will be tough.
Who can forget Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who dropped out of the race for governor of New York and decided to retire from Congress altogether?
As it turns out, being a Trump sycophant in New York is not a recipe for success, especially in an election year that’s shaping up to be a blue wave.
And in Georgia, GOP Gov. Brian Kemp passed on the opportunity to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, leaving a cast of no-name House Republicans trying to contend with Ossoff’s popularity and fundraising war chest.
Ultimately, Republicans seem to see the writing on the wall.
With Trump’s popularity in the toilet, special-election results swinging hard toward Democrats, the generic ballot showing Democrats with a clear lead, and Trump’s cruel and unpopular agenda turning off Americans, the midterms are shaping up to be a bloodbath for the GOP.
It’s why Republicans are retiring at a faster clip than Democrats, and why GOP candidates are forgoing bids to avoid the humiliation of a loss.
November is coming, and it will be ugly for the GOP.
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Emily Singer
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