Gavin Newsom Is Quietly Prepping for a Possible Early Feinstein Exit

Gavin Newsom’s emissary was discreet. The intermediary for California’s governor didn’t ask a direct question. Being blunt would have been premature, and it would have implied a promise. No, this was a “soft inquiry,” a person involved in the conversation says: If somehow one of California’s US Senate seats was vacant, would you be interested in filling it?

The context was plenty clear to anyone in or around the state’s Democratic political orbit. Dianne Feinstein turns 90 years old on June 22 and has been in fragile health. This spring, Feinstein was absent from Capitol Hill for three months as she fought off a case of shingles, and she has announced that this will be her final term as senator. Newsom said two years ago that if the job were to open early, he would appoint a Black woman to fill out the remainder of Feinstein’s term.

The governor’s vow holds enormous importance for one Black female California politician in particular. Congresswoman Barbara Lee is a candidate in the nonpartisan blanket primary to succeed Feinstein. In early polling, Lee is a distant third to congressional colleagues Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, both of whom are far better funded and far better known, thanks to their high-profile battles with President Donald Trump. Lee’s last turn in the national spotlight came in 2001, when she was the only member of Congress to vote against authorizing the war in Afghanistan. Being promoted to the Senate as Feinstein’s interim replacement would provide a crucial boost to Lee’s name recognition and campaign fundraising. “For 250 years we have tipped the scales against Black women in this country,” says California Democratic congressman Ro Khanna, who has endorsed Lee and has called on Feinstein to quit. “It’s not the end of the world if we now, once, tipped the scales for an African American woman to get to the Senate.”

Elevating Lee would indeed open Newsom to criticism that he’s meddling in the Senate race—and it would antagonize one of the governor’s most powerful patrons, House Speaker emerita Nancy Pelosi, who is backing Schiff. So Newsom’s team has been quietly shopping around for alternatives, reaching out to other Black female California politicians to gauge whether they would be willing to accept an appointment. To make the high-stakes game even more fun and complicated, Newsom has been rejected a few times. Several have said they were flattered to be considered—but that they would turn down such an offer, and the only person Newsom should choose is Lee, according to two California Democratic insiders.

A spokesman for the governor declined to comment. Lee’s camp says it doesn’t engage in speculation about Feinstein’s future or Newsom’s maneuvers, and that the candidate is confident she can win regardless of how the incumbent senator’s final years in office unfold. “We have a top-two primary out here. It’s not about getting 50% plus one,” says Katie Merrill, a consultant working for Lee’s campaign. “So we’re looking at someone getting into the general with 27% of the vote. Getting that from a specific set of voters—voters of color, younger voters, progressive Democrats—should not be difficult to do, even on a truncated budget. In the same way that Bernie Sanders put together a grassroots field campaign to win California’s presidential primary in 2020, in the same way Karen Bass was able to beat Rick Caruso in the LA mayor’s race last year while spending $9 million to his $100 million.”

Geographic political history is also in Lee’s favor. She represents a district centered on Oakland. Porter and Schiff are based in and around Los Angeles. “The thing I’ve learned over many years is that the Northern California woman usually wins,” a veteran state Democratic consultant says, ticking off the names Barbara Boxer, Kamala Harris, and Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, plus Feinstein. “You have two Southern Californians and an African American northern California woman in this race. Everyone should slow down about Porter and Schiff. If two candidates beat the living crap out of each other, a third can come through the middle. And that could be Barbara.” Another unaffiliated California Democratic operative is more skeptical. “Lee can’t root for DiFi to leave, but she needs to have it happen,” the senior strategist says. “If she’s appointed, that’s really the only way that I see her getting the votes that she needs to remain super competitive.”