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The government shutdown means investors will go without their usual guide to the labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to release the September jobs report as scheduled today, which leaves markets and policymakers without one of their most closely-watched data releases of the month.
But even when the government is open, those numbers aren’t exactly reliable.
A combination of political noise and inaccurate reporting has undermined credibility — response rates have collapsed, massive revisions are expected, and “official” numbers fluctuate wildly.
That makes alternative indicators more critical.
And right now, Google Search trends offers one of the clearest windows into worker sentiment and labor market conditions.
The charts below illustrate two decades of search volume for the terms “part time,” “second job,” “job security” and “new job.”
All four have spiked to record highs — above both 2008 and pandemic levels — signaling workers are hustling for more hours, looking to supplement income, and worrying over stability.
The shape and trajectories for each search term mirrors 2008 and 2020, but the volume is far higher.
While asset prices continue to surge and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, the outlook for jobs remains fragile.
Earlier this week, the private payroll provider ADP reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, below economists’ expectations for an increase of 45,000. That also accompanied a downward revision to the August data from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000.
“It is more difficult than usual to measure the state of the U.S. labor market, with gold-standard economic indicators produced by the federal government unavailable during the shutdown,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “The alternative data sources imply that the job market is still in a low hire, low fire, low gear mode.”
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren on Thursday called on the Trump administration to release the September jobs report, according to a CNN report.
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Phil Rosen
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