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Evans: A nightmare scenario for Long Islanders who depend on electricity | Long Island Business News

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In Brief:
  • Long Island’s aging electrical grid struggles during extreme weather
  • Recent July heat wave pushed the grid close to a regional blackout scenario
  • Off-island power limited by only two underground transmission lines built in 1978 and 1990
  • Propel NY underground cable project proposed to boost capacity and reliability
  • Emergency measures included rolling power reductions, hospital backup generators, and manual traffic control
  • Experts stress the need for infrastructure improvements to prevent future energy crises

As a professional meteorologist for over five decades, I have covered countless hurricanes and threatening heat waves. These events have invariably pounded our electrical grid. After the extreme weather retreats, we are invariably left with the question: “When will the power come back on?”

The following is meant to explore the “What if…?” for a region that has a complex, vulnerable and aging power system. Rather than create fear, this is meant to examine the realities of our finite access to electricity at a time of growing power demands, the potential impact of severe weather and how it all can impact 2.8 million Long Islanders. At a time when some are seeking to prevent strengthening that electricity network through their opposition to Propel NY—a proposed underground cable project will boost electrical capacity and reliability to the region—it would be wise to consider what would happen if this essential program was prevented from proceeding.

The scenario

As so often happens, the initial trigger was weather: An unrelenting six-day-long July heat wave that drove Long Islanders to seek respite inside their 24/7 air-conditioned refuges. The result: Enormous electrical demand threatened the grid’s ability to meet the Island’s power usage despite generating stations at Port Jefferson, Barrett in Island Park, Northport—along with backup gas-fired turbines in Brentwood and Stony Brook—all running at maximum capacity. It was a reminder that Long Island is literally an “island,” which means its energy infrastructure also depends on off-island power generation during times of weather-driven peak demands.  If we can access it.

In the midst of the heat wave, the state’s electrical grid operator redirected electricity from as far away as Ohio and Canada to Long Island, but was limited in what it could send because Long Island has only two underground transmission lines that connect the region to the rest of the statewide grid underwater cables built in 1978 and 1990, respectively.

Further exacerbating the issue, New York wasn’t the only state dealing with the record heat. With not enough underground “electrical superhighways” serving Long Island, the available “juice” from upstate and nearby out-of-state generators couldn’t find an available route to the bi-county region.

The headquarters of the Long Island Power Authority became Defcon One–a regional electrical emergency that demanded immediate power reductions throughout the Island in an attempt to prevent the worst-case scenario: A bi-county blackout.

In some places, lights began to dim and then wink out while air conditioners growled to a halt.  Office and home computers dropped off as Internet routers sputtered. EV drivers suddenly realized their vehicles needed to get to the curb because they would need to preserve power, not knowing how long the island-wide power reduction would last. Home security systems dropped offline.  Volunteer fire departments manually raised their garage doors in anticipation of emergencies. Backup generators at hospitals quickly kicked in, but with limited power, they were deployed only to keep essential life-saving equipment functioning. Long Island MacArthur and Republic airports started up their backup generators to power essential runway lights, while assisted living and nursing homes distributed ice in community rooms to vulnerable seniors who had ruefully lived through prior blackouts. Traffic signals went dark while supermarkets had staff direct parking lot traffic for those customers who appreciated that ice cream was about to go on sale.

We meteorologists were of no help. The forecasts called for a heat dome that would last for at least another three days across the tri-state region.

While possible, this scenario remains a “what if,” we came close to this reality this past July with an “energy warning – just one step from an “energy emergency.”

Long Island’s experience with Superstorm Sandy in 2012 demonstrated both the region’s vulnerability, and our 21st century dependence on electricity. In the years that have followed, the demand for uninterrupted power has only increased while the Island’s aging electrical grid continues to mask our vulnerability to any number of failure scenarios. It’s time we built a future that allows Mother Nature to do her worst and still allows us to keep the lights on.

 

Bill Evans is the owner and chief meteorologist at WLNG and WFRM Radio Sag Harbor.

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