Epstein Files Will Turn the Shutdown Fight Into a Problem for Republicans

On September 23, the federal government will be exactly one week away from shutting down absent congressional action.

There’s another thing about that date you should know: It’s when Democrat Adelita Grijalva will almost certainly be elected to the House seat in Arizona that was made vacant by her father’s death earlier this year. As soon as she is sworn in, she’s expected to join every other House Democrat in signing on to what’s known as a “discharge petition” that will bring the Epstein Files Transparency Act, a bill to force the Department of Justice to immediately release all the files in its possession, to the House floor for a vote. With four Republicans already signed on, this should bring the total number of petitioners to 218, a majority, giving Speaker Mike Johnson and the congressional leadership no choice but to give it a vote. The timing couldn’t be much worse, particularly for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

The government-shutdown negotiations will be complex and time consuming, but the dynamics generally favor Republicans. They’ll be in a position to draft the measure that will be the vehicle for avoiding a shutdown and can make it as tempting or repellent to Democrats as they choose, depending on how they want the crisis to end. And that’s assuming they want it to end without a shutdown that many of them would happily greet. Democrats will be in a position to kill another spending bill with a Senate filibuster, or to cut a bipartisan deal if one is on offer, or to “cave” again and earn the fury of the party base. Some Democrats think an agreement to extend the Obamacare premium subsidies due to expire at the end of the year would be a sufficient trophy, for instance. The White House will dictate the GOP strategy during the government-shutdown talks, and Republicans will fall in line. That’s an asset Democrats can only envy, and it’s why they probably aren’t going to “win” the spending negotiations.

The Epstein files legislation, however, unites Democrats and divides Republicans, precisely at the time Republican solidarity will be more essential than ever. Word is that the White House is already putting the screws to the four House Republicans who have signed the discharge petition. One of them, Thomas Massie, who is co-sponsoring the bill with Democrat Ro Khanna, is a professional troublemaker who has already crossed Trump in the past and survived a MAGA primary challenge. Two of the other three, Lauren Boebert and her frenemy Marjorie Taylor Greene, have longstanding ties to the QAnon conspiracy crowd for whom cabals of sexual predators are the keys to understanding all world affairs. And the fourth, Nancy Mace, is running for governor of South Carolina and accusing one of her rivals of going easy on sexual-abuse offenders, including her own former fiancé. These four will be nearly impossible to move on the Epstein bill and Republicans can’t use too much force without risking their support for the spending measures needed to keep Democrats on the defensive and out of power.

Successful discharge petitions are so rare that the precise rules for dealing with them are a bit murky. Johnson could probably exercise some delaying tactics prior to the vote and, even if it passes, getting the Justice Department to comply over Trump’s objections would be difficult to put it mildly. Only Trump himself probably knows exactly how much damaging material is in danger of floating into the atmosphere like radioactive fallout. But after all these months when everything Trump did was described as a “distraction” from the Epstein files by those who were certain it was deadly for him, the Epstein files themselves are proving to be the biggest distraction of all.