Business
Earnings playbook: Your guide to trading the start of a big reporting season this week
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The earnings season’s unofficial start is just around the corner, with several major banks expected to report. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are all slated to report Friday, along with health insurance giant UnitedHealth. Delta Air Lines, meanwhile, is scheduled to post its latest results Thursday. Investors are going into this earnings season with low expectations. S & P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen by 5.2% year over year, according to Refinitiv. On top of that investors are already feeling nervous about a weakening U.S. economy ahead of the reports. Take a look at CNBC PRO’s breakdown of what’s expected from each report. Thursday Delta Air Lines is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call with management at 10 a.m. ET. Last quarter: DAL reported a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter profit . The company’s guidance also pointed to strong travel demand. This quarter: Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect revenue to have jumped more than 45% from the year-earlier period, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC airlines reporter Leslie Josephs is watching: ” Delta is expected to post an adjusted profit, unlike some rivals . Investors will be looking closely at the pace of bookings to see whether customers will continue to spend big on travel during the peak spring and summer seasons. Delta executives will detail how they expect to manage labor, fuel and other costs and continue to grow revenue. Corporate demand is also coming into focus with recent high-profile company layoffs and whether leisure demand, particularly at the front of the cabin, can make up for any shortfall. The airline’s leaders will also likely face questions from analysts on its pace of hiring and training, as well as its capacity growth projections with pilots and planes in short supply and some constraints at congested airports, like in the New York area. What history shows: Delta posted quarterly earnings beats in seven of the last 10 quarters, FactSet data shows. Friday JPMorgan Chase is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call with management at 8:30 a.m. ET. Last quarter: JPM posted better-than-expected revenue, but warned of a likely recession . This quarter: The banking giant is expected to report a 30% year-over-year jump in earnings per share. Revenue is also forecast to have climbed by more than 10%, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “After a historic month for the banking industry in which two American banks were seized by regulators, all eyes turn to JPMorgan Chase and its CEO, Jamie Dimon. Among the questions on investors’ minds are: How are rising rates impacting deposit levels as customers move money in search of yield; how is commercial real estate faring; and what is the state of the consumer ahead of possible recession?” What history shows: FactSet data shows JPMorgan Chase topped earnings estimates in eight of the last 10 quarters. However, Bespoke Investment Group noted that the stock is typically flat on earnings days. Wells Fargo is set to report earnings before the bell. Corporate leadership is slated to hold a call at 10 a.m. ET. Last quarter: WFC rose even as the bank’s profits were cut in half by higher reserves and settlement costs . This quarter: Wells Fargo’s earnings per share are expected to have jumped by nearly 30% in the previous quarter, per Refinitiv. What CNBC banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “Wells Fargo has a massive retail banking business comparable to JPMorgan’s, so questions about deposits, loans (and whether they are raising lending standards) and commercial real estate apply here as well. Analysts will want to ask CEO Charlie Scharf about progress against regulatory orders and the status of the mortgage business, which he’s been shrinking.” What history shows: Wells Fargo beat earnings expectations in seven of the last nine quarters, FactSet data shows. The stock also averages a 0.2% gain on earnings days, according to Bespoke. Citigroup is set to report earnings in the premarket, with a conference call scheduled for 11 a.m. ET. Last quarter: C reported a 21% year-over-year earnings drop as the bank set more money aside for credit losses. This quarter: Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Citigroup earnings to have fallen by more than 10% year over year. What CNBC banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “Analysts will want an update on CEO Jane Fraser’s streamlining efforts and the status of sales of international units, as well as their regulatory orders to improve controls. The stock is flat on the year, which is a decent showing compared to the 19% decline of the KBW Bank Index.” What history shows: Citigroup’s earnings topped analyst estimates in each of the last 10 quarters, per FactSet. However, the stock on average falls 0.26% on earnings days, according to Bespoke. UnitedHealth is set to report earnings before the bell. Management is slated to hold a call at 8:45 a.m. ET. Last quarter: UNH posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue that was in line with expectations. To be sure, the company also issued full-year guidance that was below analyst estimates. This quarter: Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth of more than 10% from the year-earlier period, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC is watching: UNH will report its latest quarterly figures riding a 10% gain for this month. Investors cheered news that changes made to Medicare Advantage payments can be phased over the course of three years, somewhat mitigating regulatory headwinds. Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley named the stock a top pick, citing its strong business diversification . What history shows: Bespoke data shows UnitedHealth beats earnings estimates 93% of the time. The stock also averages a 0.8% gain on earnings days.
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