Deutsche Bank shares slump in latest sign of bank worries

It should be noted that Deutsche Bank’s 5-year credit-default swap, which was 215 on Friday, is nowhere near the peak for Credit Suisse, which was 1,194, according to S&P Global data. The higher the value of the CDS, the more likely the market sees the issuer defaulting.

Deutsche Bank’s AT1 bonds have tumbled in value after Switzerland wiped out Credit Suisse’s
CSGN,
-5.19%
securities in the deal for it to be taken over by UBS
UBSG,
-3.55%.

The Invesco AT1 Capital Bond UCITS ETF
AT1,
-1.97%,
which invests in these convertible bonds, has dropped 18% this month as investors lose faith in the securities. European and other banking regulators across the globe have insisted they will not follow Switzerland’s precedent, and first let bank equity fall to zero before wiping out the convertible securities in the event of a failure.

“It is doubtful that banks will be able to issue new AT1 anytime soon, increasing the likelihood of outstanding AT1 notes being extended. We consider that the recent events in the banking sector have resulted in substantially increased uncertainty, which is likely to continue to be reflected as substantial short-term volatility in credit markets,” said analysts at ING.

UBS
UBS,
-0.94%
also is feeling the stress in a deal that the banks say might not complete this year. UBS shares dropped 6%.

Related: Analysts say UBS will face revenue pressure before it can cut Credit Suisse costs.

Analysts also noted that a foreign institution tapped a Fed facility for $60 billion, according to data released by the U.S. central bank on Thursday. The Fed does not identify the counterparties. Major central banks do have access to swap lines for dollar borrowing from the Fed, meaning that either it was an institution that does not have that capability, or it was one that wanted to do so anonymously.

Furthermore, Bloomberg News reported the U.S. government was investigating banks including Credit Suisse and UBS for allegedly helping Russians evade U.S. sanctions.