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Crude oil futures turned higher Thursday, rebounding from two days of declines, as worsening supply disruptions in Libya and plans to lower output in Iraq sparked fears of tighter global supplies.
More than half of Libya’s oil production is offline, and exports were halted at several ports because of a standoff between rival political factions, Reuters reported.
“While it’s not clear the amount of exports Libya will cut, some analysts say 500K-900K bbl/day could be impacted as internal disputes over control of their banking system remain a concern with traders,” Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said, according to Dow Jones, adding that “technically WTI October crude remains in a bearish structure with near-term support at the 73.82 area.”
Offline production in Libya is at an imminent risk of reaching 1M bbl/day, Aline Carnizelo at Frontier Commodities told Reuters, adding a gradual recovery is unlikely before October and that even after blockades are lifted, traders must adapt to Libya being a wild card for the markets.
Reuters also reported Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with OPEC+.
Iraq, which produced 4.25M bbl/day in July, reportedly will cut output to the 3.8M-3.9M bbl/day range next month; its agreed quota is 4M bbl/day.
Additionally, U.S. Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3% from 2.8% previously, which Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said “sparked the bull run across multiple asset groups today,” and crude oil “appears to be on the ‘high tide raises all boats’ bandwagon.”
Yawger also noted the continued risk that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah or Iran will escalate.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for October delivery closed +1.8% to $75.91/bbl, and front-month October Brent (CO1:COM) settled +1.6% to $79.94/bbl, with both benchmarks breaking a two-day skid.
Also, front-month October Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM) ended +1.9% to $2.137/MMBtu, after the Energy Information Administration reported a 35B cf increase in underground storage for last week, slightly below expectations.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
A prolonged shutdown in Libya would allow OPEC+ more breathing room to increase supply in Q4 as planned, but a short-lived disruption would make the group’s decision a lot more difficult, ING strategists said.
OPEC+ would be reluctant to bring additional supply to the market if demand issues still linger, ING said.
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