Could Virginia Become the Next Florida? It May Come Down to 20 Legislative Races

It is exceedingly rare—as in, it basically never happens—that a first-time candidate for Virginia’s House of Delegates becomes internationally famous. Yet last week, Susanna Gibson—nurse practitioner, mother of two, and Democrat from suburban Richmond—made headlines around the world after The Washington Post revealed that Gibson and her husband had performed sex acts for a live online audience. In at least two of the videos, the Post reported, Gibson told viewers she was “raising money for a good cause.”

Whether that “cause” was her campaign is unclear. In Gibson’s only public statement since the news broke, she quickly and deftly spun the controversy, claiming that she was the victim of a political dirty trick and of revenge porn. Her Republican opponent, a housing developer named David Owen, said his campaign had nothing to do with the videos surfacing. “I’m sure this is a difficult time for Susanna and her family,” Owen said, “and I’m remaining focused on my campaign.”

However the legalities of Gibson’s exposure may play out—her attorney has suggested that circulating the videos breaks the state’s revenge porn law—the episode is adding complexity to what was already a close and crucial race in an off-year election cycle with enormous stakes. All 140 of Virginia’s legislative seats are on the ballot; adding to the uncertainty is the fact that this will be the first election held with newly redistricted lines. “Without hyperbole, these are the most important, most unpredictable legislative races we’ve ever seen in Virginia, at a very strange time on the national calendar,” says David Mills, a former executive director of the Virginia Democratic Party. “Until we see the results in November, no one knows quite what to make of it.”

In-person early voting begins Friday. Roughly 20 contests are likely to determine whether Republicans gain control of both houses of Virginia’s legislature—and give Republican governor Glenn Youngkin the power to steer the state even further to the right on everything from abortion to school curriculum. “State Republicans were essentially one vote away from passing the abortion ban earlier this year,” says Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who grew up in Virginia and has worked campaigns in the state. “Which makes it happening with a Republican majority more than a theoretical threat.”

Youngkin also has plenty at stake personally: Victory in the state this November would set him up nicely to become a Republican presidential contender in 2028. The governor’s PAC has been setting records, taking in $8.5 million this year, with much of the case being funneled toward legislative races.

Given those dynamics, it’s surprising that it took until late August for the Democratic National Committee to focus significant resources on Virginia, recently pumping in $1.2 million—only after the state’s two Democratic US senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, began sounding the alarm. “I started noticing a real waking up among national Democrats about a month ago,” a top Virginia Democratic insider says. “The DNC has stepped up. The president, behind the scenes, has really gone above and beyond to help raise money and attention.”

While Gibson’s race is significant, several other tight contests figure to be more significant in deciding the narrow math of Virginia legislative majorities. On the House of Delegates side—where Republicans currently hold a four-seat edge, and where a candidate could win with as few as 8,000 votes—the bellwether looks to be a Virginia Beach district where a staunchly antiabortion Republican incumbent, Karen Greenhalgh, is being challenged by Michael Feggans, a Black Air Force veteran turned cyber security consultant and rookie Democratic candidate.

On the senate side—where Democrats now have a four-seat advantage—two matchups should be pivotal. In Loudoun County, a Washington suburb, Democrat Russet Perry, a lawyer and former CIA staffer, is taking on Juan Pablo Segura, the 35-year-old founder of a donut franchise and medical software business and the son of a billionaire. Further south, outside of Richmond in Henrico County, Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg is going up against incumbent Republican Siobhan Dunnavant. “That is probably going to be, if it isn’t already, the most expensive, line-in-the-sand race that Governor Youngkin has,” the top Democratic insider says. “Democratic operatives feel like control of the senate hinges on that race. It’s been a blue area lately, but with a little different turnout it looks a lot redder.”

National issues have been prominent in the local races, with Democrats emphasizing the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and Republicans highlighting “parental rights.” One major wild card is the possible shutdown of the federal government, which would hit harder in Virginia, where approximately 172,000 residents are federal employees and 130,000 military members are stationed in the state.