Last year was the third-warmest in modern history, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s climate change monitoring service.
The conclusion came as no surprise: The past 11 years have been the 11 warmest on record, according to Copernicus data.
In 2025, the average global temperature was about 1.47 degrees Celsius (2.65 Fahrenheit) higher than from 1850 to 1900 — the period scientists use as a reference point, since it precedes the industrial era in which massive amounts of carbon pollution have been pumped into the atmosphere.
“Annual surface air temperatures were above the average across 91% of the globe,” Samantha Burgess, the strategic lead on climate for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus, said at a news conference. “The primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, dominated by the burning of fossil fuels.”
World leaders pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels. But temperatures have neared or exceeded that mark for three consecutive years, leaving that dream all but dead.
“Exceeding a three-year average of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is a milestone that none of us wished to see,” Mauro Facchini, head of Earth observation for the European Commission’s Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space, said at the news conference. “The news is not encouraging, and the urgency of climate action has never been more important.”
U.S. agencies are expected to release their climate measurements for 2025 on Wednesday. NASA issues its report separately from that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, since each uses different methods to compute global annual average temperature, typically resulting in some variation in the results.
However, the trajectory of all those measurements has been clear: The world is warming rapidly, dangerously and perhaps faster than scientists once expected.
The climate data from Europe is grim amid aggressive U.S. efforts to scale back regulations meant to address climate change and step away from international collaboration to curb warming.
The Trump administration announced last week that it would withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will leave the U.S. without a meaningful voice in global climate discussions. The administration also said the U.S. would no longer support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which produces the world’s best reports on the pace of climate change and its effects.
Later this month, following a yearlong waiting period, the U.S. will officially leave the Paris Agreement.
President Donald Trump has called climate change a “con job,” and his administration has taken steps to scuttle or downplay key climate reports, including the National Climate Assessment. The administration is working to remove the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate the greenhouse gas pollution that causes global warming.
At the same time, it has taken steps to boost the coal industry and order coal plants to continue operating. (Coal is the fuel that produces the highest level of greenhouse gas pollution.) The administration has also pushed to reverse many of the Biden administration’s climate initiatives, including subsidies for electric vehicles.
U.S. climate pollution rose about 2.4% in 2025, according to preliminary results from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm that tracks U.S. emissions. That’s not necessarily the result of Trump’s policies, however, since many are just beginning to take effect. Rhodium researchers said relatively high natural gas prices, the growth of energy-sucking data centers and a cooler winter in the U.S. drove the increase.
The Rhodium analysts still predict that the U.S. will reduce emissions in the future, largely because renewable energy sources are becoming cheaper than fossil fuels in many places. But the group now expects less of a drop in emissions than it did before Trump took office.
The heat trapped by greenhouse gases is making weather more extreme, increasing the risk of intense rain, heat waves and flooding.
Last year was the third-most expensive for major weather and climate disasters, according to an analysis released last week by the nonprofit organization Climate Central. In 2025, 23 weather and climate events exceeded $1 billion in damage, the report said, causing a total of 276 deaths and $115 billion in damage.
While greenhouse gas emissions are the primary driver of rising global temperatures, natural variability can play a role. The La Niña pattern, in which cooler-than-average water dominates the central Pacific, tends to dampen global temperatures, while El Niño tends to raise them.
A La Niña pattern took hold in late 2025, but NOAA scientists expect a transition back to neutral conditions early this year.
Research from the Environmental Voter Project shows Americans don’t view climate change as a political issue, so what will that mean for the 2026 midterm elections? Chase Cain talks with Nathaniel Stinnett on the latest episode of NBC’s video podcast series Predictable.
