Market Summary
Markets opened under pressure as geopolitical shocks and policy moves dented risk appetite. S&P 500 and Dow slid from intraday highs while the Nasdaq outperformed on chip strength; volatility ticked up. Defence and memory-chip names led sector rotation, oil slipped on seized-tanker headlines and safe-haven gold rallied.
U.S. plans to control Venezuelan oil and has escalated naval operations, seizing tankers as part of a broader campaign to monetize and police Venezuela’s crude. The moves underline geopolitical risk for oil markets and legal friction with Moscow and allies.
Figure of the Day
50% – Proposed increase in U.S. defence spending to $1.5 trillion by 2027.
President Trump is pushing for a dramatic military spending rise and markets are already repositioning around defence names. The proposal is reshaping fiscal and corporate governance debates over payouts at defence contractors.
The White House’s renewed interest in Greenland is roiling investors and allies, who weigh economic opportunity against diplomatic risk. Debate over tactics — from purchase to military options — is raising strategic and legal alarm in Europe.
Bullish
Fast Retailing lifts revenue and profit outlook
Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing raised its fiscal-year revenue and profit forecasts, signaling resilient consumer apparel demand and boosting Asian retail sentiment.
More on asia.nikkei.com
A fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis has triggered protests, school closures and a political storm in Washington. The incident is escalating partisan conflict over immigration enforcement and could drive federal oversight or legislative action.
U.S.-China cyber tensions deepen after reports Beijing’s Salt Typhoon compromised congressional staff emails. Tech firms dispute some narratives as investigators probe the extent and implications for U.S. oversight and national security.
Bearish
Nestlé faces SFr1bn sales hit from infant-formula recall
Nestlé warns a major infant-formula recall could trim up to SFr1 billion from sales and damage the food giant’s reputation during a sensitive period for baby nutrition.
More on ft.com
Beijing is scrutinizing inbound AI deals, opening assessments into Meta’s Manus acquisition as authorities test export-control and investment rules. The probes signal tighter scrutiny for western tech M&A in China’s strategic sectors.
China may partially reopen imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips while vendors brace for strict conditions, and Nvidia is forcing upfront, nonrefundable payments to hedge risk. The moves show how geopolitics and supply rules are reshaping AI hardware flows.
Regulatory Impact
White House ordered withdrawal from 66 international bodies and tightened oversight on offshore wind and defence contractors; regulators in China have broadened M&A and export-control reviews of foreign tech deals; U.S. agencies signalled stricter screening for stablecoin banking charters.
Memory shortages and surging AI demand have pushed Samsung into record profitability, underscoring the memory-price driven rally across semiconductors. Analysts warn of headline-beating results but also ask how long elevated prices will last.
Big AI players are raising fresh capital while splitting equity with employees to lock in talent as competition intensifies. Fundraising and huge equity pools underscore both investor appetite and retention battles in the AI arms race.
Quote
We will control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely — that’s the plan.
— Energy Secretary Chris Wright
Safe-haven and policy-driven commodity calls are capturing attention: HSBC’s bullish gold forecast meets market jitters as futures react to US policy and defense headlines. Equities show uneven moves as investors weigh geopolitical catalysts.
Trade frictions are rising as Beijing opens anti‑dumping and export-control measures targeting Japanese semiconductor inputs. The actions heighten supply-chain risk for chipmakers and sharpen geopolitical fault lines in East Asia.
A Trump-family crypto venture is pushing to become a regulated U.S. bank to onshore a USD-pegged stablecoin, highlighting the administration’s embrace of crypto integration into mainstream finance. Regulators will face pressure as filings proceed.
Investors remain jittery about U.S. geopolitical signals while the Navy reasserts presence in Asia; markets are pricing geopolitical risk into asset allocations. The twin headlines show how policy, force posture and markets are interlinked.
Hong Kong’s AI IPO wave continues with Zhipu’s debut drawing investor interest, testing sentiment for Chinese AI listings amid broader tech scrutiny. The activity shows a renewed appetite for domestically rooted AI plays.
Shell warns of downstream weakness while forecasting stronger upstream production, reflecting a split outlook across the oil value chain. The guidance highlights refining margin pressure even as volumes recover.
European inflation momentum is cooling but consumer confidence and sentiment remain fragile, leaving policymakers cautious. The data mix will shape ECB deliberations amid uneven regional demand and headline risks.
JPMorgan’s move to take over the Apple Card and its pivot to AI for proxy voting show banks reengineering consumer products and governance. These shifts underscore incumbents’ efforts to automate and replatform traditional services.
The White House has moved to withdraw from dozens of international bodies, marking a decisive retreat from multilateral engagement. The step is already prompting diplomatic pushback and could reshape trade and climate cooperation.