Market Summary
Markets slipped as geopolitical shocks and mixed economic data dented sentiment. The S&P 500 and Dow retreated from record highs while the Nasdaq held tech gains; chip stocks led sector rotation, oil fell on reports of expanded Venezuelan supply, and volatility ticked up as investors priced policy risk and looming jobs data.
The U.S. has stepped up forcible action to control Venezuelan crude, seizing tankers and declaring long-term control over sales. Markets and oil companies face a new supply dynamic as Washington moves to monetize seized cargoes.
Figure of the Day
20 trillion won – Samsung’s preliminary Q4 operating profit (up 208% YoY; ~US$13.8bn).
President Trump renewed threats to take control of Greenland, prompting alarm in Copenhagen and calls for urgent diplomacy. Allies are pushing for quick talks to defuse a transatlantic dispute with strategic implications for Arctic resources.
A Minneapolis operation by federal immigration agents ended with a fatal shooting, sparking protests and fierce political backlash. The incident is driving immediate congressional scrutiny and threats of impeachment actions.
Bullish
KKR secures $2.5bn for second Asia private credit fund — investor demand strong
KKR closed a $2.5bn vehicle for Asian private credit, signaling continued appetite for private markets and steady fundraising momentum in the region.
More on bloomberg.com
Warner Bros. Discovery again rebuffed a hostile approach from Paramount Skydance, branding the bid risky and debt-laden. The board signals openness to buyers but says current offers fall short of Netflix’s deal, keeping a high-stakes M&A fight alive.
Beijing appears ready to ease some restrictions on Nvidia H200 imports while drawing strict lines on military and critical infrastructure uses. Nvidia is protecting itself by forcing Chinese buyers to prepay and accept nonrefundable terms amid approval uncertainty.
Bearish
Saks struggles to stay afloat — dealmaker thrives amid turmoil
Saks is reported to be struggling operationally and financially even as intermediaries pocket fees, highlighting retail distress in high-end chains.
More on barrons.com
Beijing has opened a review into Meta’s acquisition of AI start-up Manus, signalling stricter oversight of foreign tech deals. The probe underscores China’s tightening guard around AI capabilities and cross-border M&A.
Nvidia’s recent product and partnership moves have refocused investors on the AI infrastructure winner-take-most thesis. The company’s push to expand sales and device reach is reshaping competitive dynamics across data centers and autonomous vehicles.
Regulatory Impact
White House moves: withdrawing from dozens of international bodies and tighter export/investment screens globally (Japan to set up CFIUS-like review). Regulators are also eyeing AI liability and stablecoin bank-charter applications.
Samsung reported a blockbuster quarter as memory shortages pumped prices, while warning that chip supply strains could persist. The results underline how AI-driven server demand is lifting semiconductor earnings even as shortages risk bottlenecks.
US labor-market indicators show cooling: job openings and hiring momentum are down, raising questions about growth resilience. Investors are parsing mixed data ahead of the jobs report and weighing implications for Fed policy.
Quote
“We will not permit dividends or buybacks until defense firms rebuild capacity.”
— President Donald Trump
President Trump proposed banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to tackle affordability, prompting immediate market reaction. Economists warn the move may do little to lower prices and could disrupt rental markets.
The White House backed a sharp rise in defense spending while clamping down on payouts to contractors until production improves. Markets punished defense names as the administration signalled a tougher stance on buybacks and dividends.
The US captured a Russian-flagged tanker after a lengthy pursuit, escalating tensions with Moscow and complicating sanctions enforcement. The seizure highlights Washington’s willingness to interdict shipping tied to Venezuela.
Elon Musk’s suit against OpenAI survives an attempt to dismiss, setting up a high-profile trial that could shape industry governance. Meanwhile OpenAI is pushing into health data with a dedicated ChatGPT Health product, raising fresh regulatory questions.
Anthropic is lining up a mega funding round to scale Claude and compete with OpenAI, with sovereign and long-only investors in talks. The effort signals continued investor appetite for top-tier AI startups despite valuation scrutiny.
World Liberty Financial, linked to the Trump family, is pursuing a U.S. banking charter to onshore a dollar-backed stablecoin. Regulators and markets are watching whether a political crypto player can clear federal banking scrutiny.
Google and Character.AI agreed settlements in lawsuits alleging chatbot-driven harm to teenagers, marking a notable legal reckoning for AI chat firms. The deals underline mounting liability risks as generative systems reach vulnerable users.
Shell expects higher upstream production next quarter but warned of weak downstream and trading results. Energy markets are digesting mixed guidance as crude flows from Venezuela and global inventory shifts reshape prices.
Japan is moving to build a CFIUS-style foreign investment screen while China steps up scrutiny of US tech ties. The twin moves signal a tougher global regulatory environment for cross-border tech deals and dual-use exports.